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On Holding AG (ONON)
NYSE:ONON
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On Holding AG
(NYSE:ONON)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$51.00
▲(9.07% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:12/03/25
On Holding AG's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are the primary drivers of the stock score. Technical indicators support a bullish outlook, although high valuation metrics and cash flow challenges present some risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates expanding market reach and successful product adoption, enhancing long-term business prospects.
Market Expansion
Significant growth in Asia Pacific highlights successful regional expansion, positioning the company for sustained global market presence.
Product Innovation
Strong growth in apparel sales reflects successful product innovation and diversification, strengthening the company's competitive edge.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Challenges
Cash flow challenges may limit the company's ability to reinvest in growth opportunities, impacting long-term financial flexibility.
Profit Margin Pressure
Declining profit margins suggest potential operational inefficiencies, which could affect long-term profitability and competitiveness.
Tariff and FX Risks
Tariff and currency exchange headwinds pose risks to profitability, potentially affecting the company's cost structure and pricing strategy.
On Holding AG (ONON) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.44B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)57.8
Beta (1Y)1.38
Revenue Growth38.94%
EPS Growth81.82%
CountryUS
Employees3,254
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.32
Shares Outstanding296,675,350
10 Day Avg. Volume3,649,444
30 Day Avg. Volume4,266,177
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.38
Price to Book (P/B)12.11
Price to Sales (P/S)7.27
P/FCF Ratio37.81
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda31.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$60.53Price Target Upside29.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)1.27
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.67B
On Holding AG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionOn Holding AG develops and distributes sports products worldwide. It offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company offers its products through independent retailers and distributors, online, and stores. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
How the Company Makes MoneyOn Holding AG generates revenue primarily through the sale of its footwear and apparel products. The company's business model includes direct-to-consumer sales through its own branded retail stores and e-commerce platforms, as well as wholesale distribution to sporting goods retailers and specialty stores. Key revenue streams include the sale of running shoes, training shoes, and related apparel, which cater to both amateur and professional athletes. Significant partnerships with professional sports teams and athletes serve to enhance brand visibility and credibility, contributing to increased sales. Additionally, On's commitment to sustainability and innovation helps attract environmentally conscious consumers, further bolstering its revenue potential.
On Holding AG Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where On Holding AG is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where On Holding AG is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyOn Holding AG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial trajectory—record revenues (>CHF 3.0bn), industry‑leading gross margins (62.8% FY; 63.9% Q4), robust cash generation (>CHF 1.0bn), rapid multi‑category expansion (apparel +~75% CC) and breakthrough manufacturing/product innovations (LightSpray, new foam). Management acknowledged measured near‑term headwinds (tariff/FX uncertainty, higher SG&A share) and an intentional slowdown in reported growth cadence for 2026 as they scale prudently from an elevated base. On balance, the highlights—particularly margin expansion, cash strength, scalable innovation, and broad regional momentum—outweigh the lowlights.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue and Strong Growth
On crossed CHF 3.0 billion in net sales for FY2025 (first time >CHF 3.0bn). Full-year growth was ~30% reported and ~35.6% at constant currency (management referenced ~36% CC), with a raised 3-year constant-currency CAGR (2023–2026) implied at least 30.5%.
Outstanding Q4 Performance
Q4 net sales of CHF 743.8 million, +22.6% year‑on‑year reported and +30.6% at constant currency. Q4 D2C net sales were CHF 360.6 million, +21.7% reported and +30% at constant currency.
Record Gross Margin and Strong Profitability
Full‑year gross profit margin reached a record 62.8%; Q4 gross margin hit 63.9% (up 180 basis points YoY). FY adjusted EBITDA margin was 18.8%, and 2026 guidance targets 18.5%–19%.
Exceptional Cash Generation and Strong Balance Sheet
Operating cash flow for 2025 was CHF 359.5 million and year‑end cash exceeded CHF 1.0 billion—the strongest cash position in company history.
Breakthrough Product & Manufacturing Innovation (LightSpray & Foam)
R&D scaled to >400 experts; Cloudsurfer 3 projected at 15% lighter, 20% softer, and 15% more energy in push-offs. LightSpray reduces 200 assembly steps to one, cuts CO2 by ~75%, yields a 170g elite shoe, and Busan facility increased LightSpray capacity ~30x vs 2025; elite LightSpray product won major races (e.g., Hellen Obiri at NYC Marathon).
Multi‑Category Expansion — Apparel & Accessories Acceleration
Apparel grew ~75.5% constant currency for the year (management also cited a 76% figure), accessories +135.1% CC. Apparel and accessories now ~7% of total net sales (up ~190 basis points year over year) and represent 15% of retail net sales.
Direct‑to‑Consumer Strength & Retail Expansion
Global D2C share increased to 41.8% (+110 basis points). Company opened 18 net new retail stores (ending with 67 global stores), retail productivity rose ~20%, and store formats averaged ~40% larger than prior estate.
Outperformance in Asia Pacific
APAC Q4 net sales CHF 126.5 million, +70.8% reported and +85.1% CC. APAC surpassed CHF 1.0 billion for full-year 2025; strong China results (top-five on Tmall for footwear >$140 during Double 11; Chinese New Year in-store traffic >2x baseline).
Healthy Unit Economics and Inventory Positioning
Year‑end inventory CHF 419.8 million with net working capital improved to 18.9% of net sales. Capex in Q4 was CHF 28.6 million (3.8% of net sales) reflecting targeted investments in retail, innovation and supply chain.
Upgraded 2026 Targets
Management expects at least 23% constant-currency net sales growth for 2026 (reported target at current spots: ≥CHF 3.44 billion) and full-year gross margin of at least 63%, signaling confidence in sustaining premium, full‑price execution.
Negative Updates
Guidance Implies Meaningful Deceleration vs 2025
Management expects ~23% CC growth in 2026 versus ~35.6% CC in 2025, implying a slowdown of roughly 12–13 percentage points in organic growth, which management framed as prudent given a higher base and focus on premium execution.
Tariff and Foreign‑Exchange Uncertainty
Higher U.S. import tariffs were referenced as a material external pressure; guidance embeds prior tariff assumptions (up to ~20%) and management noted uncertainty around future tariff rulings/refunds and ongoing FX translation headwinds affecting reported values.
SG&A Share Increased
SG&A excluding share‑based compensation was 50.9% of net sales in Q4, up ~40 basis points year over year—management attributes this to strategic redeployment into retail expansion and brand building, but it represents near‑term cost pressure.
Apparel Still Small in Total Mix Despite Rapid Growth
Although apparel grew strongly (+~75.5% CC), apparel and accessories together still represent only ~7% of total net sales—limiting near‑term diversification away from footwear.
Reported Inventory Value Distorted by Currency Translation
Management noted that underlying product volumes grew faster than reported inventory value due to negative currency translation, which could complicate near‑term inventory and margin comparisons on a reported basis.
High Dependence on Maintaining Full‑Price Premium Execution
A core strength is disciplined full‑price execution, but the business is exposed if consumer demand shifts or promotional pressures rise; maintaining full‑price sell‑through is critical to sustaining record margins.
Company Guidance
On guided 2026 net sales to grow at least 23% at constant currency (implying a reported target of at least CHF 3.44 billion at current spot rates), which lifts the 2023–2026 constant‑currency CAGR to at least 30.5%; they expect a full‑year gross margin of at least 63% (above 2025’s 62.8%) and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5–19% (versus the 18% Investor Day target). Management said D2C should outperform wholesale (D2C was 41.8% in 2025), apparel should meaningfully outpace overall growth, they expect somewhat stronger growth in H1 with cushioning in H2, and the guidance is framed against the current tariff/FX environment (guidance modeled on the prior ~20% tariff assumption).On Holding AG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
On Holding AG shows strong revenue growth and a solid gross profit margin, indicating effective cost management. However, declining net profit margins and cash flow challenges suggest areas for improvement. The balance sheet is stable with prudent leverage.Income Statement
On Holding AG has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 5.84%. The company maintains a solid gross profit margin of 62.40% TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased to 7.80% TTM from 10.45% in the previous year, suggesting some pressure on profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, reflecting potential challenges in operational efficiency.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet is stable with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33 TTM, indicating a conservative approach to leverage. The return on equity has slightly decreased to 15.50% TTM from 17.41% in the previous year, which may reflect the impact of reduced net income. The equity ratio remains strong, showcasing a solid capital structure.78
Positive
Cash Flow
On Holding AG's cash flow performance shows some concerns, with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -66.10% TTM, indicating potential cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.55 TTM, suggesting moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.83 TTM indicates that a significant portion of net income is being converted into free cash flow, albeit at a reduced level compared to previous periods.70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.88B | 2.32B | 1.79B | 1.22B | 724.60M | 425.30M |
| Gross Profit | 1.80B | 1.41B | 1.07B | 684.90M | 430.30M | 231.10M |
| EBITDA | 366.90M | 400.00M | 206.30M | 128.60M | -125.80M | -12.00M |
| Net Income | 224.30M | 242.30M | 79.60M | 57.70M | -170.20M | -27.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.75B | 2.38B | 1.59B | 1.38B | 1.24B | 382.57M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.02B | 968.00M | 512.40M | 397.30M | 676.80M | 100.51M |
| Total Debt | 503.90M | 347.60M | 229.00M | 160.40M | 180.80M | 23.73M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.21B | 984.90M | 518.50M | 412.90M | 388.10M | 137.48M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.54B | 1.39B | 1.07B | 969.50M | 848.40M | 245.09M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 345.40M | 445.60M | 184.90M | -310.00M | -19.30M | -33.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 415.20M | 510.60M | 232.10M | -227.00M | 16.90M | -14.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -69.70M | -64.90M | -47.10M | -82.90M | -36.40M | -18.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -73.90M | -55.40M | -21.80M | 6.30M | 595.90M | 124.80M |
On Holding AG Technical Analysis
Neutral
46.76
Price Trends
46.59
Positive
44.44
Positive
47.30
Negative
Market Momentum
0.36
Negative
51.87
Neutral
39.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONON, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 46.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.90, above the 50-day MA of 46.59, and below the 200-day MA of 47.30, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ONON.
On Holding AG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $15.44B | 57.84 | 15.38% | ― | 38.94% | 81.82% | |
76 Outperform | $10.47B | 12.56 | 25.10% | 2.45% | 0.29% | 3.65% | |
74 Outperform | $3.81B | 21.21 | 12.36% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% | |
73 Outperform | $21.57B | 12.29 | 41.02% | ― | 8.76% | 3.41% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
| ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
73 Outperform | $5.64B | 26.03 | 18.45% | ― | 17.82% | 34.88% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
ONON
On Holding AG
46.76
-3.87
-7.64%
AEO
American Eagle
22.50
10.95
94.74%
FL
Foot Locker
―
―
―
GAP
Gap Inc
28.15
8.67
44.49%
BOOT
Boot Barn
185.38
73.56
65.78%
LULU
Lululemon Athletica
176.17
-169.12
-48.98%
On Holding AG Corporate Events
On Holding AG Reports Record Q3 2025 Results and Raises Full-Year Guidance
Nov 12, 2025
On Holding AG reported record financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with net sales increasing by 24.9% year-over-year to CHF 794.4 million, driven by strong demand across all channels and regions. The company achieved significant growth in its apparel category and expanded its global retail presence, leading to a gross profit margin of 65.7%. On’s strategic execution and premium positioning have resulted in a net income margin increase to 15.0%, and the company has raised its full-year guidance, expecting continued growth and profitability.
The most recent analyst rating on (ONON) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on On Holding AG stock, see the ONON Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.