Boot Barn (BOOT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.01B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 728.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.50
• Revenue Growth: 17.82%
• EPS Growth: 34.88%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,100
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 2.79
• Shares Outstanding: 30,420,431
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 781,696
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 728,094
• PEG Ratio: 0.81
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.66
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.22K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.99
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.62
• 1Y Price Target: $238.25
• Price Target Upside: 21.10% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.24B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $219.00 ▲(11.31% Upside)

Overall score reflects solid financial performance and a strong, guidance-raising earnings call, supported by constructive price trends. The main constraints are inconsistent free-cash-flow conversion and a valuation (P/E ~27.6) that embeds continued execution.

Positive Factors

Exclusive brands driving margin expansion

Increased penetration of exclusive brands (reported ~240 bps lift) creates a structural gross-margin advantage by improving product margin mix, reducing reliance on promotional discounting, and driving differentiation. Exclusive assortments also attract net-new customers via dedicated brand sites, supporting sustained margin tailwinds.

E-commerce acceleration and omnichannel growth

High-teens e-commerce comp growth reflects durable omnichannel adoption, expanding addressable market without commensurate store fixed costs. Strong online momentum and separate brand sites drive customer acquisition and scalable margins over time, supporting revenue diversification and resilience against localized retail disruptions.

Fast, profitable store expansion strategy

A replicable store unit economics (average ~$3.2M first‑year sales, sub‑2 year payback) allows durable growth via physical expansion. Rapid but disciplined openings expand market share, improve buying scale and distribution leverage over time, and support omni sales synergies as each store enhances local brand presence.

Negative Factors

Inconsistent free-cash-flow conversion

Volatile cash conversion indicates working-capital and timing swings that can limit financial flexibility. When FCF lags earnings it constrains sustainable share repurchases, debt paydown, and reinvestment, increasing execution risk during rapid growth phases or economic slowdowns.

Elevated inventory tied to new-store growth

Inventory growth driven by new stores and exclusive-brand rollout increases working-capital needs and exposure to markdowns or category shifts. Elevated inventory can amplify shrink and freight volatility, compress near‑term margins, and reduce FCF predictability until sell-through normalizes.

Rising absolute debt and occupancy deleverage

While leverage ratios remain manageable, higher absolute debt raises fixed-cost obligations during expansion. Combined with occupancy and SG&A deleverage from accelerated store openings, this heightens sensitivity to sales misses and requires continued top-line growth to restore historic operating leverage.

Boot Barn Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc., a lifestyle retail chain, operates specialty retail stores in the United States. The company's specialty retail stores offer western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and kids. It offers boots, shirts, jackets, hats, belts and belt buckles, handbags, western-style jewelry, rugged footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim, and flame-resistant and high-visibility clothing. The company also provides gifts and home merchandise. As of May 10, 2022, it operated 304 stores in 38 states. The company also sells its products through e-commerce websites, including bootbarn.com; sheplers.com; and countryoutfitter.com. The company was formerly known as WW Top Investment Corporation and changed its name to Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. in June 2014. Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is based in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Boot Barn primarily generates revenue through the sale of its wide array of products, including footwear, apparel, and accessories, both in-store and online. The company’s revenue model is based on retail sales, with key revenue streams coming from their physical stores and e-commerce platform. Boot Barn also benefits from brand partnerships with popular Western and workwear brands, which enhance its product offerings and attract loyal customers. Additionally, the company may engage in promotional events and loyalty programs that drive repeat business and increase customer retention, further contributing to its overall earnings.

Boot Barn Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong earnings profile for retail with TTM revenue up 4.7%, ~38.3% gross margin and ~10.1% net margin, plus manageable leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.55) and healthy ROE (~18.3%). The main drag is cash-flow quality: free-cash-flow conversion is weak (~26% of net income) with historical volatility, and absolute debt has risen (~$704M TTM).

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue grew 4.7% and profitability is solid for retail, with a ~38.3% gross margin and ~10.1% net margin. Margins have generally improved versus FY2024, showing good operating leverage. The main weakness is that profitability is still below FY2022 peaks (when net margin was ~12.9%), indicating some normalization/pressure versus prior highs.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable with TTM debt-to-equity at ~0.55 and equity of ~$1.28B supporting a ~$2.40B asset base. Returns remain healthy (TTM return on equity ~18.3%), though down from the stronger FY2022 level (~32.1%). A notable watch item is absolute debt rising to ~$704M TTM from ~$563M in FY2025, which modestly increases financial risk even though the ratio remains reasonable.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved recently with TTM operating cash flow of ~$266M and free cash flow of ~$89M, and free cash flow growth of ~60.6% versus the prior period. However, cash conversion is inconsistent: TTM free cash flow is only ~26% of net income, and prior years included periods of near-breakeven/negative free cash flow (FY2025 and FY2023). This volatility suggests working-capital and/or reinvestment swings that can pressure near-term cash returns.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.17B	1.91B	1.67B	1.66B	1.49B	893.49M
Gross Profit	831.18M	717.04M	614.42M	610.57M	575.07M	294.88M
EBITDA	368.16M	304.10M	249.19M	315.57M	325.01M	145.07M
Net Income	218.98M	180.94M	147.00M	170.55M	192.45M	59.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.40B	2.02B	1.71B	1.52B	1.20B	933.58M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	200.07M	69.77M	75.85M	18.19M	20.67M	73.15M
Total Debt	704.07M	563.04M	466.76M	447.72M	306.25M	331.02M
Total Liabilities	1.12B	886.96M	761.95M	740.93M	600.18M	538.69M
Stockholders Equity	1.28B	1.13B	943.64M	776.45M	599.68M	394.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	89.48M	-753.00K	117.30M	-35.65M	28.42M	127.50M
Operating Cash Flow	266.14M	147.54M	236.08M	88.89M	88.86M	155.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-176.62M	-148.24M	-118.78M	-124.53M	-60.44M	-28.42M
Financing Cash Flow	-42.36M	-5.38M	-59.64M	33.17M	-80.89M	-123.91M

Boot Barn Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 196.74
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BOOT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 196.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 187.50, above the 50-day MA of 190.92, and above the 200-day MA of 174.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.81 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BOOT.

Boot Barn Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GAP	76 Outperform	$10.27B	12.36	25.10%	2.45%	0.29%	3.65%
ANF	74 Outperform	$4.32B	9.17	40.72%	―	7.57%	1.75%
AEO	74 Outperform	$4.23B	21.52	12.36%	2.09%	-1.15%	-0.98%
BOOT	73 Outperform	$6.01B	27.62	18.45%	―	17.82%	34.88%
BKE	72 Outperform	$2.76B	13.23	41.26%	6.82%	4.67%	3.46%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Boot Barn Corporate Events

Boot Barn posts robust fiscal Q3 2026 growth

On February 4, 2026, Boot Barn Holdings reported strong results for its third fiscal quarter ended December 27, 2025, with net sales up 16% year over year to $705.6 million, driven by a 5.7% increase in same-store sales and continued outperformance in e-commerce, which grew 19.6%. The company opened 25 new stores in the quarter, bringing its total to 514 locations, and delivered net income of $85.8 million, or $2.79 per diluted share, aided by a 110-basis-point expansion in merchandise margin that offset higher occupancy and SG&A costs tied to its rapid store expansion. For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, net sales rose 17.7% to $1.715 billion and net income climbed to $181.4 million, or $5.90 per diluted share, underscoring the retailer’s momentum heading into the holiday season and early fourth quarter, where management noted high-single-digit same-store sales growth before winter storms moderated trends to mid-single digits. These results highlight Boot Barn’s strengthening operating leverage, particularly from scale-driven buying efficiencies, supply chain improvements and increased penetration of exclusive brands, supporting its strategy of aggressive store growth and digital expansion while maintaining healthy profitability metrics for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BOOT) stock is a Hold with a $190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boot Barn stock, see the BOOT Stock Forecast page.

Boot Barn Issues Strong Preliminary Q3 2026 Results

Boot Barn Holdings reported strong preliminary results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, ended December 27, 2025, highlighted by net sales of approximately $705.6 million, up 16% year over year, and same-store sales growth of 5.7% driven by both retail stores and especially robust e-commerce growth of 19.6%. Income from operations is expected to rise to about $114.8 million from $99.5 million, and diluted EPS to about $2.79 from $2.43, with the prior-year period having benefited from a one-time gain tied to the former CEO’s resignation; the company also opened 25 new stores in the quarter, bringing its total to 514 and underscoring its aggressive expansion as merchandise margins improved on buying scale, supply chain efficiencies and higher penetration of exclusive brands. In conjunction with these preliminary results, Boot Barn announced its participation in the 2026 ICR Conference on January 12, 2026, where management will discuss performance and strategy, signaling confidence in continued sales momentum into the fourth quarter and reinforcing the retailer’s positioning as a growth leader in the western and workwear segment.

The most recent analyst rating on (BOOT) stock is a Buy with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boot Barn stock, see the BOOT Stock Forecast page.

Boot Barn Completes CEO Transition and Board Realignment

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. announced a leadership transition in which Peter Starrett, who had been serving as Executive Chairman to support the appointment of John Hazen as Chief Executive Officer, reverted to his prior role as non-executive Chairman of the Board effective January 1, 2026. As of that date, Starrett is no longer considered an executive officer under securities regulations and will receive the same compensation and benefits as the company’s other non-employee directors, signaling the completion of the planned CEO transition and a return to a more standard board governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (BOOT) stock is a Buy with a $225.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boot Barn stock, see the BOOT Stock Forecast page.