Boot Barn (BOOT) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.58B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 607.71K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.52
• Revenue Growth: 17.82%
• EPS Growth: 34.88%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,100
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 2.79
• Shares Outstanding: 30,483,635
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 786,382
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 607,712
• PEG Ratio: 0.81
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.66
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.22K
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.11
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.99
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.86
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.78
• 1Y Price Target: $238.36
• Price Target Upside: 30.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $203.00 ▲(10.81% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial profitability and a very positive earnings update with raised full-year guidance. Offsetting these positives are weaker near-term technical signals (negative MACD and price below key moving averages) and a moderate-to-high P/E with no dividend yield support.

Positive Factors

Margin Strength & Profitability

Sustained high gross and operating margins plus double-digit ROE indicate durable pricing power and operating efficiency in its niche. These structural margins support reinvestment in stores, exclusive brands and omnichannel capabilities, helping protect long-term profitability through growth cycles.

E‑commerce & Exclusive Brands

Rapid e‑commerce growth and rising exclusive‑brand penetration diversify revenue and raise customer lifetime value. Exclusive brands reduce vendor reliance and increase gross margin carry, while online traction expands addressable market beyond store foot traffic for durable omnichannel growth.

Scalable Store Expansion

Proven unit economics and rapid openings create a scalable growth engine: quick payback and above‑average first‑year sales suggest new stores add profitable revenue. A long runway to 1,200 stores supports multi-year structural growth and leverage of fixed costs.

Negative Factors

Elevated Inventory Levels

Significant inventory increases tie up capital and raise markdown risk if demand shifts, pressuring working capital and free cash flow. Over several months this can limit flexibility for investments or buybacks and amplify exposure to category or weather volatility.

Shrink & Freight Pressure

Persistently higher shrink and lumpy freight costs structurally erode merchandise margins and operating leverage. For a retailer scaling store and DC footprints, these variable cost pressures can reduce margin sustainability and complicate forecasting of multi‑quarter profitability.

Low FCF Conversion & Higher Leverage

Weak conversion of earnings into free cash flow constrains internal funding for expansion and makes the company more reliant on external financing. Combined with rising debt, this reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to rate or cash‑flow shocks over the medium term.

Boot Barn Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc., a lifestyle retail chain, operates specialty retail stores in the United States. The company's specialty retail stores offer western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and kids. It offers boots, shirts, jackets, hats, belts and belt buckles, handbags, western-style jewelry, rugged footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim, and flame-resistant and high-visibility clothing. The company also provides gifts and home merchandise. As of May 10, 2022, it operated 304 stores in 38 states. The company also sells its products through e-commerce websites, including bootbarn.com; sheplers.com; and countryoutfitter.com. The company was formerly known as WW Top Investment Corporation and changed its name to Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. in June 2014. Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is based in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Boot Barn primarily generates revenue through the sale of its wide array of products, including footwear, apparel, and accessories, both in-store and online. The company’s revenue model is based on retail sales, with key revenue streams coming from their physical stores and e-commerce platform. Boot Barn also benefits from brand partnerships with popular Western and workwear brands, which enhance its product offerings and attract loyal customers. Additionally, the company may engage in promotional events and loyalty programs that drive repeat business and increase customer retention, further contributing to its overall earnings.

Boot Barn Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and operating efficiency (TTM gross margin 38.08%, net margin 10.05%, EBIT margin 13.46%, EBITDA margin 16.84%) alongside steady revenue growth support a solid score. Leverage appears manageable (debt-to-equity 0.55) with good ROE (18.11%), but rising debt and weaker conversion of earnings into free cash flow (FCF to net income 0.26) keep this from scoring higher.

Income Statement

Boot Barn demonstrates strong revenue growth with a 3.996% increase in TTM, supported by solid gross and net profit margins of 38.08% and 10.05%, respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 13.46% and 16.84%, indicating efficient operational management. The company has shown consistent revenue growth over the years, which is a positive indicator of market demand and business expansion.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity stands at 18.11%, indicating effective use of shareholder funds to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, showing a strong capital structure. However, the increase in total debt over the years could pose a risk if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 104.46% TTM, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.52, suggesting that the company is generating sufficient cash from operations. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively low at 0.26, which could indicate potential challenges in converting profits into free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.07B	1.91B	1.67B	1.66B	1.49B	893.49M
Gross Profit	788.81M	717.04M	614.42M	610.57M	575.07M	294.88M
EBITDA	348.72M	304.10M	249.19M	315.57M	325.01M	145.07M
Net Income	208.24M	180.94M	147.00M	170.55M	192.45M	59.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.26B	2.02B	1.71B	1.52B	1.20B	991.91M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	64.73M	69.77M	75.85M	18.19M	20.67M	73.15M
Total Debt	667.95M	563.04M	466.76M	447.72M	306.25M	331.02M
Total Liabilities	1.05B	886.96M	761.95M	740.93M	600.18M	597.02M
Stockholders Equity	1.21B	1.13B	943.64M	776.45M	599.68M	394.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	56.00M	-753.00K	117.30M	-35.65M	28.42M	127.50M
Operating Cash Flow	213.58M	147.54M	236.08M	88.89M	88.86M	155.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-157.82M	-148.24M	-118.78M	-124.53M	-60.44M	-28.42M
Financing Cash Flow	-28.42M	-5.38M	-59.64M	33.17M	-80.89M	-123.91M

Boot Barn Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 183.20
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BOOT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 183.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 187.01, below the 50-day MA of 190.75, and above the 200-day MA of 171.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BOOT.

Boot Barn Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GAP	76 Outperform	$10.79B	12.69	25.10%	2.45%	0.29%	3.65%
ANF	74 Outperform	$4.84B	10.12	40.72%	―	7.57%	1.75%
AEO	74 Outperform	$4.10B	20.73	12.36%	2.09%	-1.15%	-0.98%
BOOT	73 Outperform	$5.58B	27.10	18.74%	―	17.82%	34.88%
BKE	72 Outperform	$2.58B	12.03	41.26%	6.82%	4.67%	3.46%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%

Boot Barn Corporate Events

Boot Barn posts robust fiscal Q3 2026 growth

On February 4, 2026, Boot Barn Holdings reported strong results for its third fiscal quarter ended December 27, 2025, with net sales up 16% year over year to $705.6 million, driven by a 5.7% increase in same-store sales and continued outperformance in e-commerce, which grew 19.6%. The company opened 25 new stores in the quarter, bringing its total to 514 locations, and delivered net income of $85.8 million, or $2.79 per diluted share, aided by a 110-basis-point expansion in merchandise margin that offset higher occupancy and SG&A costs tied to its rapid store expansion. For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, net sales rose 17.7% to $1.715 billion and net income climbed to $181.4 million, or $5.90 per diluted share, underscoring the retailer’s momentum heading into the holiday season and early fourth quarter, where management noted high-single-digit same-store sales growth before winter storms moderated trends to mid-single digits. These results highlight Boot Barn’s strengthening operating leverage, particularly from scale-driven buying efficiencies, supply chain improvements and increased penetration of exclusive brands, supporting its strategy of aggressive store growth and digital expansion while maintaining healthy profitability metrics for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BOOT) stock is a Hold with a $190.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boot Barn stock, see the BOOT Stock Forecast page.

Boot Barn Issues Strong Preliminary Q3 2026 Results

Boot Barn Holdings reported strong preliminary results for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, ended December 27, 2025, highlighted by net sales of approximately $705.6 million, up 16% year over year, and same-store sales growth of 5.7% driven by both retail stores and especially robust e-commerce growth of 19.6%. Income from operations is expected to rise to about $114.8 million from $99.5 million, and diluted EPS to about $2.79 from $2.43, with the prior-year period having benefited from a one-time gain tied to the former CEO’s resignation; the company also opened 25 new stores in the quarter, bringing its total to 514 and underscoring its aggressive expansion as merchandise margins improved on buying scale, supply chain efficiencies and higher penetration of exclusive brands. In conjunction with these preliminary results, Boot Barn announced its participation in the 2026 ICR Conference on January 12, 2026, where management will discuss performance and strategy, signaling confidence in continued sales momentum into the fourth quarter and reinforcing the retailer’s positioning as a growth leader in the western and workwear segment.

The most recent analyst rating on (BOOT) stock is a Buy with a $220.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boot Barn stock, see the BOOT Stock Forecast page.

Boot Barn Completes CEO Transition and Board Realignment

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. announced a leadership transition in which Peter Starrett, who had been serving as Executive Chairman to support the appointment of John Hazen as Chief Executive Officer, reverted to his prior role as non-executive Chairman of the Board effective January 1, 2026. As of that date, Starrett is no longer considered an executive officer under securities regulations and will receive the same compensation and benefits as the company’s other non-employee directors, signaling the completion of the planned CEO transition and a return to a more standard board governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (BOOT) stock is a Buy with a $225.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boot Barn stock, see the BOOT Stock Forecast page.