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Boot Barn
(NYSE:BOOT)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$161.00
▲(7.35% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/30/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying profitability and a constructive earnings outlook with raised FY27 guidance, partially offset by weaker cash conversion/FCF consistency. The stock’s technical setup is the main near-term drag, as shares are below key moving averages, while valuation is moderate with no dividend yield data to provide additional support.
Positive Factors
Strong margins & ROE
Sustained, above‑peer retail margins and near‑19% ROE indicate durable earnings power from merchandise mix and operating efficiency. These margins support internal funding for store growth, brand investment and shareholder returns, making profitability a structural strength over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent free cash flow
Cash conversion lags reported earnings and has been uneven, with prior negative FCF periods. Elevated working‑capital and capex for store growth can strain liquidity during demand softness, reducing flexibility for buybacks, debt reduction or opportunistic investments over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong margins & ROE
Sustained, above‑peer retail margins and near‑19% ROE indicate durable earnings power from merchandise mix and operating efficiency. These margins support internal funding for store growth, brand investment and shareholder returns, making profitability a structural strength over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Boot Barn (BOOT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.51B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)645.72K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.7
Beta (1Y)1.56
Revenue Growth17.65%
EPS Growth24.64%
CountryUS
Employees12,700
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.97
Shares Outstanding30,284,843
10 Day Avg. Volume620,283
30 Day Avg. Volume645,723
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.81
Price to Book (P/B)3.45
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio36.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$227.70Price Target Upside51.82% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)8.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.61B
Boot Barn Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. engages in the operation of retail stores of western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories. The firm's products include boots, jeans, accessories, hats, gifts and home products, and work wear. Its brands incl...
How the Company Makes Money
Boot Barn primarily makes money by selling merchandise (footwear, apparel, and accessories) to consumers through its physical retail stores and its online channel, generating revenue at the point of sale. Its key revenue streams are (1) footwear s...
Boot Barn Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a fundamentally positive operating performance: strong top-line growth (18% sales increase), robust e-commerce and same-store comps, significant margin expansion and a raised full-year guide. Operational execution highlights include successful new store openings, durable work-boot momentum, and improved omnichannel capabilities. Near-term challenges were acknowledged — notably July traffic weakness driven by fewer events and World Cup distractions, reliance on tariff refund timing as a one-time boost, a decline in women's Western boots in the month, inventory growth and some freight/comparability effects. Management characterized the July softness as transitory and maintained confidence in the full-year outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 18% year-over-year to $594 million in Q1 FY27.
Negative Updates
Near-Term Traffic Weakness (July/Q2 Start)
Through first 4 weeks of Q2, consolidated same-store sales were approximately flat. July sales fell below expectations due to fewer Western lifestyle stadium events/concerts and World Cup-related traffic disruptions; July also lapped a very strong +11% comp from last year.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Net sales increased 18% year-over-year to $594 million in Q1 FY27.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Boot Barn raised full‑year fiscal 2027 guidance (high end) to $2.6 billion in sales (+16% YoY) with consolidated same‑store sales +4% (retail store comps +3%, e‑commerce comps +13%), merchandise margin ~52.2% of sales (+130 bps YoY including +70 bps from tariff refunds, +50 bps product margin expansion and +10 bps freight improvement), gross profit ~38.7% (+60 bps), SG&A leverage ~40 bps, income from operations $374 million (14.3% of sales, +100 bps), net income $281 million and diluted EPS $9.23 (+26%), net CapEx ~$130 million and an effective tax rate ~25.7%; Q2 (high end) guidance is $582 million in sales with consolidated comps +2%, merchandise margin ~51.8% (+140 bps; reflecting ~90 bps freight improvement, ~40 bps tariff benefit and ~10 bps product margin), gross profit ~36.6%, SG&A ~25.1% (20 bps leverage), operating income $67 million (11.5% of sales) and EPS $1.65 (vs. $1.37 LY). Management also quantified tariff refund impacts: Q1 benefit $14.7M (250 bps to merchandise margin) and $0.38 EPS, Q2 ~$2.4M (40 bps, ~$0.06 EPS), Q3 ~$0.7M (10 bps, ~$0.02 EPS) and full‑year tariff benefit ~$17.8M (70 bps) plus $0.5M interest (~$0.46 EPS).Boot Barn Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.34B | 2.25B | 1.91B | 1.67B | 1.66B | 1.49B |
| Gross Profit | 901.03M | 858.36M | 717.04M | 614.42M | 610.57M | 575.07M |
| EBITDA | 406.63M | 380.77M | 304.10M | 249.19M | 315.57M | 325.01M |
| Net Income | 242.58M | 225.88M | 180.94M | 147.00M | 170.55M | 192.45M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.57B | 2.67B | 2.02B | 1.71B | 1.52B | 1.20B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 139.26M | 141.04M | 69.77M | 75.85M | 18.19M | 20.67M |
| Total Debt | 806.05M | 773.48M | 563.04M | 466.76M | 447.72M | 306.25M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.21B | 1.35B | 886.96M | 761.95M | 740.93M | 600.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.36B | 1.32B | 1.13B | 943.64M | 776.45M | 599.68M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 116.40M | 126.34M | -753.00K | 117.30M | -35.65M | 28.42M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 314.90M | 304.90M | 147.54M | 236.08M | 88.89M | 88.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -198.43M | -178.81M | -148.24M | -118.78M | -124.53M | -60.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -72.52M | -54.83M | -5.38M | -59.64M | 33.17M | -80.89M |
Boot Barn Technical Analysis
Positive
149.98
Price Trends
162.33
Negative
159.80
Negative
174.61
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.46
Negative
52.02
Neutral
54.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BOOT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 149.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 154.31, below the 50-day MA of 162.33, and below the 200-day MA of 174.61, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.46 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BOOT.
Boot Barn Risk Analysis
Boot Barn disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boot Barn reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Boot Barn Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $2.25B | 9.95 | 47.36% | 10.36% | 7.10% | 12.26% | |
64 Neutral | $4.51B | 18.69 | 18.78% | ― | 17.65% | 24.64% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $424.51M | 19.91 | 3.68% | ― | 4.60% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $155.05M | -12.62 | -6.80% | ― | -8.42% | 79.65% | |
60 Neutral | $412.70M | 11.18 | 5.49% | 3.12% | -4.40% | -43.68% | |
50 Neutral | $431.29M | 1,284.00 | 0.05% | 2.38% | 4.95% | -100.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
BOOT
Boot Barn
158.60
-13.90
-8.06%
BKE
Buckle
46.10
-0.95
-2.01%
GCO
Genesco
39.14
14.62
59.62%
SHOE
Shoe Station Group
15.42
-4.40
-22.20%
CAL
Caleres
14.00
0.42
3.12%
DLTH
Duluth Holdings
4.17
2.05
96.70%
Boot Barn Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Boot Barn Expands Credit Facility, Reports Strong Quarter
Positive
Jul 29, 2026
On July 28, 2026, Boot Barn doubled its revolving credit facility to $500 million and extended its maturity to July 28, 2031, while revising certain covenants and reducing its swingline capacity, enhancing financial flexibility to support expansio...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Boot Barn Posts Record Q4 and Fiscal 2026 Results
Positive
May 14, 2026
Boot Barn Holdings reported record results for its fourth quarter and fiscal year ended March 28, 2026, with quarterly net sales up 18.7% to $538.8 million and same-store sales rising 6.1%, including double-digit e-commerce growth. Quarterly net i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.