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Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT)
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Boot Barn (BOOT) AI Stock Analysis

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BO

Boot Barn

(NYSE:BOOT)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$169.00
▲(0.91%Upside)
Boot Barn's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment underpin its stable outlook, despite technical indicators suggesting caution. The fair valuation and strategic initiatives like the share repurchase program provide additional support, but rising debt and potential market risks require careful monitoring.
Positive Factors
Comparable Store Sales
Momentum continues to accelerate with a significant increase in comparable store sales, indicating strong demand and growth potential.
Exclusive Brands
Maintaining prices on exclusive brands should support market share growth and offer opportunities to expand margins through better buying and scale.
Growth Strategy
Strategic initiatives include new marketing, store, e-commerce, and merchandise margin expansion plans indicating future growth.
Negative Factors
Consumer Health
There is caution on consumer health, which may lead to a decline in transactions, creating some uncertainty in future performance.
Price Increases
Most of BOOT's third party vendors are planning to raise prices this summer.
Tariff Impact
There will be tariff headwinds beginning in 3Q26.

Boot Barn (BOOT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Boot Barn Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBoot Barn Holdings, Inc., a lifestyle retail chain, operates specialty retail stores in the United States. The company's specialty retail stores offer western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories for men, women, and kids. It offers boots, shirts, jackets, hats, belts and belt buckles, handbags, western-style jewelry, rugged footwear, outerwear, overalls, denim, and flame-resistant and high-visibility clothing. The company also provides gifts and home merchandise. As of May 10, 2022, it operated 304 stores in 38 states. The company also sells its products through e-commerce websites, including bootbarn.com; sheplers.com; and countryoutfitter.com. The company was formerly known as WW Top Investment Corporation and changed its name to Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. in June 2014. Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is based in Irvine, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyBoot Barn generates revenue primarily through the sale of its extensive range of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company's revenue model is centered on retail sales conducted through its physical retail stores and online platform. Key revenue streams include sales from national brands as well as exclusive private label products, which often carry higher margins. Boot Barn's earnings are further supported by strategic partnerships with suppliers and manufacturers, allowing it to offer unique and sought-after products. Additionally, Boot Barn benefits from a loyal customer base and frequent promotional events, which drive foot traffic and online sales.

Boot Barn Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 26.08%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Boot Barn reported record revenue and earnings growth, driven by new store openings and strong same-store sales. However, challenges such as tariff uncertainties and potential consumer softness due to price increases remain concerns for the future.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth
Boot Barn's full year fiscal 2025 revenue increased to a record $1.9 billion, driven by 186 new stores and strong same-store sales growth.
New Store Expansion
60 new stores were opened during fiscal 2025, with plans to open 65 to 70 new stores in fiscal 2026, expanding into four new states.
Strong Earnings Growth
Earnings per diluted share grew by 23% to $5.88 for fiscal 2025, with a fourth quarter EPS of $1.22, up from $0.96 in the prior year.
Same-Store Sales Increase
Fourth quarter consolidated same-store sales increased by 6%, supported by strong performance in both brick-and-mortar and e-commerce.
Merchandise Margin Improvement
Fourth quarter merchandise margin expanded by 210 basis points, driven by supply chain efficiencies and exclusive brand growth.
Customer Loyalty Growth
The customer loyalty database grew by 14% year-over-year, reaching 9.6 million active customers.
Negative Updates
Tariff Uncertainty
Ongoing uncertainty with respect to tariffs, expected to impact margins with an approximate $8 million incremental cost.
Work Boots Business Decline
The Work Boots business experienced a low-single-digit negative comp in the fourth quarter.
Increased Legal and Store Payroll Expenses
SG&A expenses for the quarter showed a slight deleverage due to higher legal expenses and store payroll.
Potential Softening Demand Due to Price Increases
Concerns over potential softening in consumer demand due to anticipated price increases from third-party vendors.
Company Guidance
During the Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. fourth quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported a record fiscal year 2025 revenue of $1.9 billion, with a same-store sales growth of 6% in the fourth quarter. Boot Barn opened 60 new stores in fiscal 2025 and aims to open 65 to 70 new stores in fiscal 2026. Merchandise margin expanded by 130 basis points for the year, contributing to a 23% increase in earnings per diluted share to $5.88. The company is facing uncertainty due to tariffs, with a projected $8 million impact in the second half of fiscal 2026. Boot Barn plans to mitigate these impacts through strategic pricing and sourcing adjustments, aiming for exclusive brand penetration growth of 100 basis points in fiscal 2026. The company also announced a $200 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its strong cash flow generation.

Boot Barn Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Boot Barn exhibits robust financial health characterized by strong revenue growth and profitability improvements. The balance sheet reveals prudent financial management with controlled leverage, although rising debt levels should be monitored. Cash flow management shows areas for improvement, particularly in sustaining positive free cash flow. Overall, the company is well-positioned with potential for future growth, albeit with some attention required on cash flow management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Boot Barn has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a consistent upward trajectory over the years. The gross profit margin has remained healthy, indicating efficient cost management. The net profit margin has also improved, reflecting enhanced profitability. The stability of EBIT and EBITDA margins signals robust operational efficiency, contributing positively to the income statement's strength.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet shows a sound equity position with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, indicating balanced leverage. The return on equity has improved, showcasing effective use of shareholders' funds. The equity ratio suggests a solid asset base relative to liabilities, although the increase in debt levels requires monitoring to prevent potential leverage risks.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
Cash flow from operations has shown fluctuations, with a decrease in recent periods. Despite a drop in free cash flow, the operating cash flow to net income ratio remains stable, indicating good conversion of net income into cash. However, the negative free cash flow growth rate highlights potential challenges in managing capital expenditures and financing activities.
Breakdown
Mar 2025Mar 2024Jun 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.91B1.67B1.66B1.49B893.49M
Gross Profit
717.04M614.42M610.57M575.07M294.88M
EBIT
239.35M198.21M231.79M258.34M86.33M
EBITDA
239.35M249.19M315.57M325.01M145.07M
Net Income Common Stockholders
180.94M147.00M170.55M192.45M59.39M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
69.77M75.85M18.19M20.67M73.15M
Total Assets
2.02B1.71B1.52B1.20B933.58M
Total Debt
563.04M466.76M447.72M306.25M331.02M
Net Debt
493.27M390.91M429.53M285.58M257.87M
Total Liabilities
886.96M761.95M740.93M600.18M538.69M
Stockholders Equity
1.13B943.64M776.45M599.68M394.89M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-753.00K117.30M-35.65M28.42M127.50M
Operating Cash Flow
147.54M236.08M88.89M88.86M155.92M
Investing Cash Flow
-148.24M-118.78M-124.53M-60.44M-28.42M
Financing Cash Flow
-5.38M-59.64M33.17M-80.89M-123.91M

Boot Barn Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price167.48
Price Trends
50DMA
124.41
Positive
100DMA
127.81
Positive
200DMA
138.43
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
11.81
Positive
RSI
72.00
Negative
STOCH
85.99
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BOOT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 167.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 156.70, above the 50-day MA of 124.41, and above the 200-day MA of 138.43, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 11.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 72.00 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BOOT.

Boot Barn Risk Analysis

Boot Barn disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Boot Barn reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Boot Barn Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$4.18B19.7427.15%1.24%2.07%24.87%
MM
70
Neutral
$3.33B6.2012.92%5.74%-3.77%4607.98%
68
Neutral
$5.04B28.5617.44%14.64%21.68%
63
Neutral
$3.38B15.7812.34%1.94%-1.69%-4.01%
62
Neutral
$6.84B11.412.80%3.87%2.70%-24.58%
UAUA
62
Neutral
$2.79B-9.95%-7.47%-131.70%
UAUAA
47
Neutral
$2.79B-9.95%-7.47%-131.70%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BOOT
Boot Barn
167.48
40.55
31.95%
COLM
Columbia Sportswear
62.25
-17.89
-22.32%
GOLF
Acushnet Holdings
72.40
10.04
16.10%
M
Macy's
12.25
-5.65
-31.56%
UA
Under Armour
6.32
-0.32
-4.82%
UAA
Under Armour
6.75
-0.07
-1.03%

Boot Barn Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Boot Barn Releases Strategic Investor Presentation
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. has released an investor presentation to be used in meetings with institutional investors and analysts. The presentation provides insights into the company’s strategic initiatives and growth potential, highlighting challenges such as economic conditions and trade policies that could impact operations. Boot Barn continues to focus on expanding its store count and enhancing its product offerings to maintain its industry-leading position.

The most recent analyst rating on (BOOT) stock is a Buy with a $147.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boot Barn stock, see the BOOT Stock Forecast page.

Stock BuybackBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Boot Barn Announces $200 Million Share Buyback Program
Positive
May 14, 2025

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. reported a strong financial performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year ending March 29, 2025, with net sales increasing by 16.8% and 14.6% respectively compared to the previous year. The company also announced a $200 million share repurchase program, reflecting confidence in its strategic initiatives and market positioning, as it continues to expand its store count and strengthen its brand appeal.

The most recent analyst rating on (BOOT) stock is a Buy with a $110.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Boot Barn stock, see the BOOT Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Boot Barn Appoints John Hazen as CEO
Positive
May 5, 2025

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. has appointed John Hazen as Chief Executive Officer, effective May 5, 2025, following his interim role since November 2024. The Board of Directors, after a comprehensive search, believes Hazen’s industry knowledge and experience in digital transformation make him well-suited to lead the company. Hazen’s compensation includes a base salary of $900,000 and participation in the company’s incentive bonus program. Peter Starrett will continue as Executive Chairman until the end of 2025 to aid in the transition. The appointment is expected to strengthen Boot Barn’s strategic direction and growth initiatives, enhancing value for customers and stakeholders.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.