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American Eagle
(NYSE:AEO)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▼(-7.31% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/02/26
The score reflects improving profitability and a constructive earnings outlook driven by Aerie, plus supportive valuation (low P/E and a solid dividend). These positives are moderated by weak recent cash-flow conversion and higher leverage, while the stock’s technical setup remains neutral with the price below longer-term moving averages and mixed momentum signals.
Positive Factors
Aerie high-growth and customer adds
Aerie’s rapid scale and ~1M new customers indicate durable brand momentum and customer acquisition economics. Aerie’s higher AOV, category leadership in intimates/activewear and multi‑channel strength support sustained above‑market revenue growth and margin upside over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Recent TTM cash conversion deterioration signals working capital and timing stress that can limit the company’s ability to fund capex, buybacks or debt service without tapping liquidity. Persistent weak free cash flow raises refinancing and flexibility risk if margins or sales soften.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Aerie high-growth and customer adds
Aerie’s rapid scale and ~1M new customers indicate durable brand momentum and customer acquisition economics. Aerie’s higher AOV, category leadership in intimates/activewear and multi‑channel strength support sustained above‑market revenue growth and margin upside over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
American Eagle Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Reveals the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas contribute most to the bottom line and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Reveals the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas contribute most to the bottom line and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican Eagle (AEO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.76B
Dividend Yield2.09%
Average Volume (3M)5.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.0
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth6.22%
EPS Growth65.05%
CountryUS
Employees9,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.65
Shares Outstanding167,573,330
10 Day Avg. Volume5,394,738
30 Day Avg. Volume5,901,371
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.60
Price to Book (P/B)2.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio20.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.68
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$20.13Price Target Upside3.63% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.80B
American Eagle Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) operates as a distinct fashion and lifestyle retail enterprise, offering a wide array of clothing, accessories, and personal care items. Its primary offerings are sold under the established American Eagle and ...
How the Company Makes Money
AEO primarily makes money by selling branded merchandise directly to consumers. Its core revenue stream is net sales from retail and online transactions, including (1) American Eagle brand products such as jeans, tops, outerwear, and accessories, ...
American Eagle Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive operating picture driven by exceptional Aerie performance, strong top‑line growth (+10%) and notable margin expansion (+860 bps gross margin improvement). Management acknowledges targeted weaknesses at the American Eagle banner — primarily women’s bottoms and store conversion — and near‑term headwinds from tariffs, elevated inventory costs, and higher advertising spend. However, management has clear remediation plans (assortment fixes, marketing reallocation, distribution improvements) and balance sheet and liquidity capacity to support execution. On balance, the significant growth and profitability gains led by Aerie and the company’s action plans outweigh the addressable AE challenges and tariff uncertainty.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
Total revenue of $1.2 billion, up 10% year‑over‑year; consolidated comparable sales +8%.
Negative Updates
American Eagle Brand Softness
AE revenue down ~2% YoY for the quarter; AE comparable sales declined (driven by store weakness) with digital flat; women's business, specifically women's bottoms and denim, underperformed and was the primary driver of AE's sales decline.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
Total revenue of $1.2 billion, up 10% year‑over‑year; consolidated comparable sales +8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 consolidated comparable sales to mid‑ to high‑single digits, with Aerie expected to continue growing in the high‑teens to low‑20s and American Eagle to be flat to down low‑single digits; Q2 operating income is forecast at $45–$50 million (which includes an incremental ~$20 million tariff headwind vs. last year) and SG&A is expected to be up in the mid‑teens. They plan a 10% tariff rate in Q2 and 15% for the balance of the year, have filed roughly $190 million in tariff refund claims (anticipating about $140 million net cash benefit that is not included in guidance), and expect full‑year operating profit of $390–$410 million on consolidated comparable sales in the mid‑single digits; full‑year CapEx is planned at $250–$260 million. For context, Q1 results that inform the outlook included revenue of $1.2 billion (up 10%), consolidated comps +8%, Aerie sales +34% (Aerie comps +25%), gross profit $456 million (gross margin 38.2%, +860 bps), ending inventory up 27% in cost (units +5%), Q1 CapEx $61 million, $74 million returned to shareholders in Q1, $103 million cash and ~ $620 million total liquidity.American Eagle Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.60B | 5.50B | 5.33B | 5.26B | 4.99B | 5.01B |
| Gross Profit | 1.95B | 1.81B | 1.88B | 1.81B | 1.54B | 1.83B |
| EBITDA | 591.92M | 465.46M | 658.86M | 477.02M | 404.98M | 756.43M |
| Net Income | 280.41M | 191.98M | 329.38M | 170.04M | 125.14M | 419.63M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.08B | 4.04B | 3.83B | 3.56B | 3.42B | 3.79B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 103.29M | 238.92M | 358.96M | 454.09M | 170.21M | 434.77M |
| Total Debt | 1.87B | 1.73B | 1.45B | 1.19B | 1.37B | 1.81B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.44B | 2.35B | 2.06B | 1.82B | 1.82B | 2.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.64B | 1.69B | 1.77B | 1.74B | 1.60B | 1.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.94M | 195.39M | 254.26M | 406.27M | 145.92M | 69.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 84.41M | 456.18M | 476.80M | 580.71M | 406.30M | 303.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -38.21M | -202.65M | -217.51M | -287.43M | -261.38M | -594.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 299.63M | -326.85M | -301.91M | -109.47M | -407.89M | -125.20M |
American Eagle Technical Analysis
Negative
19.42
Price Trends
17.01
Negative
18.41
Negative
19.57
Negative
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
42.33
Neutral
22.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AEO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.57, above the 50-day MA of 17.01, and below the 200-day MA of 19.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AEO.
American Eagle Risk Analysis
American Eagle disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Eagle reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Eagle Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $6.06B | 13.37 | 17.64% | ― | 11.23% | 8.96% | |
72 Outperform | $4.11B | 8.69 | 36.89% | ― | 5.13% | 0.95% | |
68 Neutral | $2.17B | 9.59 | 47.36% | 6.82% | 7.10% | 12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $2.76B | 9.97 | 17.24% | 2.09% | 6.22% | 65.05% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AEO
American Eagle
16.46
6.86
71.51%
ANF
Abercrombie Fitch
92.42
3.64
4.10%
BKE
Buckle
42.19
-1.03
-2.38%
URBN
Urban Outfitters
70.72
0.08
0.11%
American Eagle Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
American Eagle Announces CFO Transition and Strategic Guidance
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On July 1, 2026, American Eagle Outfitters announced that longtime Chief Financial Officer Mike Mathias will step down from his executive roles and move into a full‑time, non‑executive strategic advisor position to CEO Jay Schottenstei...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
American Eagle expands stock incentive plan, reaffirms leadership
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
At its June 26, 2026 annual meeting, American Eagle Outfitters shareholders approved an amended and restated 2023 Stock Award and Incentive Plan, adding 9,680,000 shares, extending the plan’s term to 2036 and raising the annual compensation ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
American Eagle Extends and Amends Revolving Credit Facility
Positive
Jun 10, 2026
On June 4, 2026, American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. amended its $700 million senior secured asset-based revolving credit facility, originally established in 2022, extending the facility’s maturity from June 24, 2027, to June 4, 2031. The amendm...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.