Lululemon Athletica (LULU)
NASDAQ:LULU
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Lululemon Athletica
(NASDAQ:LULU)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$155.00
▲(0.87% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/18/26
The score is primarily weighed down by a weak technical setup (broad downtrend and negative momentum) and earnings-call guidance for a margin/EPS reset in 2026. Financial performance remains a key support given strong multi-year growth and solid balance-sheet/return profile, while the relatively low P/E provides additional valuation cushion.
Positive Factors
High gross margins and multi‑year revenue scale
Lululemon’s sustained revenue scaling and structurally high gross margins reflect durable brand pricing power and product economics. Over the medium term this supports strong unit economics, reinvestment capacity and competitive insulation versus lower‑priced rivals even if short-term margins fluctuate.
Negative Factors
Tariff‑driven gross margin compression
Large tariff exposure and elevated markdowns have materially compressed product margins. Absent durable offsets this structural cost pressure can erode the firm’s premium margin profile, reducing long‑run profitability and forcing either higher prices, lower gross margin or accelerated productivity gains to restore economics.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margins and multi‑year revenue scale
Lululemon’s sustained revenue scaling and structurally high gross margins reflect durable brand pricing power and product economics. Over the medium term this supports strong unit economics, reinvestment capacity and competitive insulation versus lower‑priced rivals even if short-term margins fluctuate.
Read all positive factors
Lululemon Athletica (LULU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.55B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.5
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth8.76%
EPS Growth3.41%
CountryUS
Employees39,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.01
Shares Outstanding110,482,670
10 Day Avg. Volume2,863,333
30 Day Avg. Volume2,900,101
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.41
Price to Book (P/B)4.29
Price to Sales (P/S)1.92
P/FCF Ratio23.12
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.63
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$179.56Price Target Upside16.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)12.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.48B
Lululemon Athletica Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
lululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails athletic apparel and accessories for women and men. It operates in two segments, Company-Operated Stores and Direct to Consumer. The company offers pants, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Lululemon makes money primarily by selling branded athletic and lifestyle products at premium price points through two main channels: (1) company-operated retail stores and (2) direct-to-consumer e-commerce and mobile app sales. Revenue is generat...
Lululemon Athletica Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Channel
Revenue distribution across various sales and distribution channels
Revenue distribution across various sales and distribution channels
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLululemon Athletica Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: clear progress and strategic initiatives (product innovation, international strength, digital growth, store productivity, share repurchases and an actionable enterprise enablement plan) are offset by significant near-term headwinds (large gross margin compression driven by tariffs and markdowns, SG&A deleverage, guidance for modest revenue growth and lower EPS, and expected North America softness). Management outlines a credible multi-pronged plan and early green shoots in product and activations, but the company is guiding through a transitional year with meaningful margin and earnings pressure in 2026.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Comparable Sales
Total net revenue for Q4 rose 1% to $3.6 billion; excluding the 53rd week, net revenue rose 6% (4% in constant currency) and comparable sales increased 2%.
Negative Updates
Sharp Gross Margin Compression
Gross margin declined to 54.9% in Q4 from 60.4% a year ago, a 550 basis point decline driven primarily by a 560 basis point fall in product margin due to tariffs and higher markdowns; tariffs had a gross negative impact of ~520 basis points and markdowns increased ~130 basis points.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Comparable Sales
Total net revenue for Q4 rose 1% to $3.6 billion; excluding the 53rd week, net revenue rose 6% (4% in constant currency) and comparable sales increased 2%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
lululemon guided fiscal 2026 revenue of $11.35–$11.50 billion (growth of 2–4% vs. 2025) with North America down 1–3% (U.S. down 1–3%), China Mainland up ~20% (Q1 China expected +25–30%), and Rest of World growth in the mid‑teens; Q1 revenue is guided to $2.40–$2.43 billion (1–3% y/y) with North America down mid‑single digits and ~6 net new stores/6 optimizations. The company expects to open ~40–45 net new company‑operated stores in 2026 (≈15 in North America including ~8 in Mexico; 25–30 international, majority in China), complete ~35 optimizations, and drive low‑double‑digit square footage growth. Gross margin is forecast to decline ~120 basis points for the year (Q1 ≈‑380 bps), with tariff headwinds (management cited ~$380M gross tariff impact in 2026 with ≈$160M of offsets; FY tariff impact ~90 bps that management expects to largely offset) and markdowns expected to improve modestly (Q1 markdowns ~+30 bps, with improvement mainly in H2). SG&A is expected to deleverage ~130 bps for the year (Q1 deleverage ~330 bps), operating margin to decline ~250 bps for the year (Q1 ~‑710 bps), and FY diluted EPS to be $12.10–$12.30 (vs. $13.26 in 2025) with Q1 EPS $1.63–$1.68 (vs. $2.60); effective tax rate ~30% for the year (~31.5% in Q1). Capital expenditures are expected to be $725–$745 million (~6% of revenue), inventory dollar growth is guided to mid‑ to high‑single digits with units flat to slightly down, the company exited Q4 with ~$1.8 billion cash and ~ $600 million of revolver capacity, and ~ $1.2 billion remains on the share‑repurchase authorization (repurchases in 2025 totaled about $1.2 billion; 2026 repurchase cadence expected to be similar).Lululemon Athletica Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 11.10B | 10.59B | 9.62B | 8.11B | 6.26B |
| Gross Profit | 6.28B | 6.27B | 5.61B | 4.49B | 3.61B |
| EBITDA | 2.74B | 2.95B | 2.59B | 2.02B | 1.60B |
| Net Income | 1.58B | 1.81B | 1.55B | 854.80M | 975.32M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.46B | 7.60B | 7.09B | 5.61B | 4.94B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.81B | 1.98B | 2.24B | 1.15B | 1.26B |
| Total Debt | 1.80B | 1.58B | 1.40B | 1.07B | 881.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.49B | 3.28B | 2.86B | 2.46B | 2.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.96B | 4.32B | 4.23B | 3.15B | 2.74B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 921.67M | 1.58B | 1.64B | 327.81M | 994.61M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.60B | 2.27B | 2.30B | 966.46M | 1.39B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -662.12M | -798.17M | -654.13M | -569.94M | -427.89M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.21B | -1.65B | -548.83M | -467.49M | -844.99M |
Lululemon Athletica Technical Analysis
Negative
153.67
Price Trends
170.69
Negative
181.84
Negative
188.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.50
Negative
42.68
Neutral
55.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LULU, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 153.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 158.94, below the 50-day MA of 170.69, and below the 200-day MA of 188.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LULU.
Lululemon Athletica Risk Analysis
Lululemon Athletica disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lululemon Athletica reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lululemon Athletica Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $69.74B | 28.12 | 36.70% | 0.90% | 3.71% | 0.65% | |
68 Neutral | $5.54B | 13.74 | 17.66% | ― | 11.09% | 51.51% | |
64 Neutral | $9.21B | 12.79 | 22.98% | 2.45% | 0.29% | 3.65% | |
64 Neutral | $10.66B | 62.44 | 13.48% | ― | 38.94% | 81.82% | |
63 Neutral | $18.55B | 13.49 | 34.82% | ― | 8.76% | 3.41% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $2.89B | 11.22 | 12.12% | 2.09% | -1.15% | -0.98% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LULU
Lululemon Athletica
153.67
-120.17
-43.88%
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6.50
59.85%
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216.34
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59.49%
URBN
Urban Outfitters
64.74
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28.33%
ONON
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32.21
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-28.44%
Lululemon Athletica Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Lululemon Adds Chip Bergh to Board Amid Refresh
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
Lululemon Athletica announced on March 17, 2026, that former Levi Strauss Co. president and CEO Chip Bergh has joined its board of directors as an independent director, following a March 13 board vote that temporarily expanded the board to 10 mem...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lululemon Raises Q4 Outlook on Strong Holiday Demand
Positive
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Lululemon Athletica updated its outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, saying it now expects net revenue and diluted earnings per share to come in toward the high end of its prior guidance ranges of $3.500 billion to $...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.