On Holding AG (ONON) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.93B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 5.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 62.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.43
• Revenue Growth: 38.94%
• EPS Growth: 81.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,254
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Apparel - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 296,873,350
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 7,889,797
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,582,439
• PEG Ratio: -3.69
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.43
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.22
• P/FCF Ratio: 47.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 26.94
• 1Y Price Target: $58.27
• Price Target Upside: 49.22% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.23
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.53B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $41.00 ▲(4.99% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 03/05/26

The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial quality (high margins and profitability) and a strong, confidence-leaning 2026 outlook from the latest earnings call. Offsetting these positives are weak technical positioning (trading below key moving averages) and a demanding valuation (high P/E with no dividend yield), which raise execution sensitivity if growth or margins soften.

Positive Factors

High gross margins

Sustained 62–64% gross margins and ~19% adjusted EBITDA indicate durable pricing power and structural unit economics. That margin buffer supports reinvestment in retail, R&D and marketing while absorbing cost inflation, helping the company maintain profitability as it scales internationally.

Strong cash generation and liquidity

Robust operating cash flow and a >CHF1bn cash balance provide financial flexibility to fund capex, LightSpray capacity expansion, retail openings and R&D without urgent external financing. This liquidity reduces refinancing risk and underpins multi‑year growth investments.

Product innovation & D2C momentum

Proprietary production tech (LightSpray, new foam) and lighter high‑performance models create durable product differentiation that lowers unit complexity and CO2, while D2C strength (rising share) amplifies margins and customer data. This combination supports sustainable competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

Guidance implies slower growth

A guidance step‑down from ~36% to ~23% CC raises execution risk: the company must sustain premium sell‑through and margin expansion with lower top‑line leverage. Slower growth reduces operating‑leverage tailwinds and makes outcomes more sensitive to adverse demand or cost swings.

Rising leverage and margin pressure

Higher leverage and a meaningful drop in net margin constrain financial flexibility and increase sensitivity to interest and one‑time charges. Sustained margin volatility could force trade‑offs between reinvestment and cash returns, limiting ability to fund rapid expansion without raising cost of capital.

Limited product diversification

Concentration in footwear leaves the business exposed to shifts in consumer preference or promotional pressure. With apparel still a small share, diversification benefits are limited and reliance on full‑price footwear execution plus tariff/FX exposure make revenues and margins more vulnerable to structural trade or demand shocks.

On Holding AG Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

On Holding AG develops and distributes sports products worldwide. It offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company offers its products through independent retailers and distributors, online, and stores. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

How the Company Makes Money

On Holding makes money primarily by selling branded products—especially athletic footwear—along with apparel and accessories. Revenue is generated through two main go-to-market channels: (1) direct-to-consumer (DTC), where the company sells through its e-commerce sites and owned retail stores, capturing retail margin and customer data; and (2) wholesale, where the company sells to third-party retailers/distributors who then sell to end consumers, typically at lower gross margin than DTC but with broader distribution reach. Product category mix is a key driver of earnings, with footwear generally representing the largest portion of sales, while apparel and accessories contribute additional revenue and support brand expansion. The company’s profitability and growth are influenced by brand demand, product innovation, pricing, channel mix (DTC vs. wholesale), geographic expansion, and its ability to manage inventory and supply chain costs. Specific details on significant partnerships beyond standard wholesale/retail relationships are null.

On Holding AG Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong multi-year revenue growth and high gross margin (~63% in 2025) support a solid profitability profile, but 2025 showed meaningful growth deceleration, notable net margin compression (~6.8% vs ~10.5% in 2024), rising leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.36), and weaker free cash flow year-over-year—key items to monitor for durability.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been strong over the last several years, though it slowed meaningfully in 2025 (annual revenue growth ~6% vs ~29% in 2024). Profitability is solid with a high gross margin (~63% in 2025) and healthy operating profitability (EBITDA margin ~17%), but net margin compressed notably in 2025 (~6.8% vs ~10.5% in 2024) despite higher revenue—suggesting higher costs, investment, or other below-the-line pressure. Overall, the business shows good scale and pricing power, with some recent margin volatility to monitor.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks reasonably healthy with moderate leverage: debt-to-equity increased to ~0.36 in 2025 from ~0.25 in 2024, indicating rising reliance on debt as the company grows. Equity has expanded over time and returns on equity remain positive (about 12% in 2025), though down from 2024 levels (~17%). Overall, financial flexibility appears adequate, but the trend toward higher leverage and softer returns is a watch item.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, with 2025 operating cash flow (~$323M) and free cash flow (~$253M) both solidly positive and free cash flow covering a meaningful portion of earnings (free cash flow to net income ~0.78). However, cash flow weakened versus 2024 (free cash flow down ~27% year over year; operating cash flow also lower), signaling higher working capital needs or investment intensity. The track record includes earlier volatility (negative operating and free cash flow in 2022), so consistency has improved but is not yet fully steady.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.88B	2.32B	1.79B	1.22B	724.60M
Gross Profit	1.81B	1.41B	1.07B	684.90M	430.30M
EBITDA	481.82M	400.00M	206.30M	128.60M	-125.80M
Net Income	194.54M	242.30M	79.60M	57.70M	-170.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.84B	2.38B	1.59B	1.38B	1.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.02B	968.00M	512.40M	397.30M	676.80M
Total Debt	581.66M	347.60M	229.00M	160.40M	180.80M
Total Liabilities	1.20B	984.90M	518.50M	412.90M	388.10M
Stockholders Equity	1.63B	1.39B	1.07B	969.50M	848.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	253.18M	445.60M	184.90M	-310.00M	-19.30M
Operating Cash Flow	322.80M	510.60M	232.10M	-227.00M	16.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-75.07M	-64.90M	-47.10M	-82.90M	-36.40M
Financing Cash Flow	-54.44M	-55.40M	-21.80M	6.30M	595.90M

On Holding AG Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 39.05
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONON, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 39.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.34, below the 50-day MA of 44.91, and below the 200-day MA of 46.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.91 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ONON.

On Holding AG Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BOOT	73 Outperform	$4.80B	16.51	18.28%	―	17.82%	34.88%
ONON	66 Neutral	$12.93B	62.44	13.48%	―	38.94%	81.82%
GAP	64 Neutral	$8.95B	15.26	22.98%	2.45%	0.29%	3.65%
LULU	63 Neutral	$19.96B	13.49	38.27%	―	8.76%	3.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
AEO	54 Neutral	$2.92B	20.90	12.12%	2.09%	-1.15%	-0.98%
FL	―	―	―	―	―	―	―

On Holding AG Corporate Events

On Holding Tops CHF 3 Billion in 2025 Sales as Margins Hit Record Highs

On Holding AG reported on March 3, 2026 that it surpassed CHF 3.0 billion in net sales in 2025, a 30% year-on-year increase, with constant-currency growth of 35.6% and cash topping CHF 1.0 billion. The company expanded its gross margin to 62.8% and adjusted EBITDA margin to 18.8%, driven by structural efficiencies and its premium positioning, while scaling its own retail network to nearly 70 stores and lifting apparel and accessories to 7% of sales.

Fourth-quarter 2025 net sales rose 22.6% to CHF 743.8 million, with strong double-digit growth in both direct-to-consumer and wholesale channels and record Q4 gross margin of 63.9%, but reported and adjusted net income and EPS declined for both the quarter and full year. Management highlighted particularly strong momentum in Asia-Pacific and multi-category expansion, and said the company enters 2026 in a strong financial position after filing its 2025 Form 20-F and related reports with U.S. regulators.

Full-year growth was broad-based across regions and product categories, with APAC sales nearly doubling and apparel and accessories growing much faster than the core footwear business. Despite margin expansion and higher adjusted EBITDA, net income and earnings per share fell, reflecting higher reinvestment and other factors even as the company continues to position itself as a leading premium global sportswear brand.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONON) stock is a Buy with a $60.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on On Holding AG stock, see the ONON Stock Forecast page.

On Holding Names Veteran Consumer Executive Frank Sluis as New CFO

On Holding AG announced on January 28, 2026, that it has appointed Frank Sluis as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective May 1, 2026, marking a significant change in its senior leadership team. Sluis, who previously served as CFO for Europe & Indonesia at global food retail group Ahold Delhaize and has more than 25 years of experience in major consumer businesses including Reckitt Benckiser and Unilever, is expected to bring large-scale international financial and consumer-brand expertise to support On’s rapid global expansion and premium positioning in sportswear. He will succeed Martin Hoffmann, who has been serving in the dual role of CEO and CFO since becoming sole CEO last year and will oversee the finance organization until Sluis starts, a transition the company frames as a move to strengthen strategic financial leadership as it continues to deliver record results and pursue ambitious growth plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (ONON) stock is a Buy with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on On Holding AG stock, see the ONON Stock Forecast page.