Natwest Group Plc (NWG)
NYSE:NWG
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NatWest Group
(NYSE:NWG)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
â–²(0.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/04/26
The score is primarily driven by mixed financial quality—solid profitability and improving leverage, but inconsistent cash generation and revenue volatility. Valuation is a major positive (very low P/E and strong yield), while the earnings call supports a constructive outlook via reaffirmed/strong guidance and capital strength. Technicals are a modest headwind due to weak near-term trend and soft momentum.
Positive Factors
Capital generation & CET1 strength
Consistent, multi-hundred-basis-point capital generation and a 14% CET1 ratio materially strengthen loss-absorbing capacity and strategic optionality. This durable capital build supports dividends/buybacks, buffers impending RWA changes, and underpins capacity for acquisitions and lending over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Recurrent negative operating and free cash flow in several years signals that reported earnings have not consistently converted to cash. This reduces financial flexibility, increases reliance on wholesale funding and capital markets, and constrains the bank's ability to absorb shocks or fund organic growth without raising costs or capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capital generation & CET1 strength
Consistent, multi-hundred-basis-point capital generation and a 14% CET1 ratio materially strengthen loss-absorbing capacity and strategic optionality. This durable capital build supports dividends/buybacks, buffers impending RWA changes, and underpins capacity for acquisitions and lending over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
NatWest Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Income by Segment
Details the total income generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which parts of the business are contributing most to overall revenue.
Details the total income generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which parts of the business are contributing most to overall revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNatWest Group (NWG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$63.08B
Dividend Yield3.67%
Average Volume (3M)3.60M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.0
Beta (1Y)1.06
Revenue Growth7.21%
EPS Growth26.24%
CountryUS
Employees59,400
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.72
Shares Outstanding3,986,599,000
10 Day Avg. Volume3,386,668
30 Day Avg. Volume3,597,009
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.16
Price to Book (P/B)0.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.89
P/FCF Ratio4.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap-0.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue-0.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-1.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-2.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.20Price Target Upside11.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.97
Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.47B
NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services to personal, commercial, corporate, and institutional customers in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking, ...
How the Company Makes Money
NatWest Group makes money mainly by intermediating deposits and lending, charging for banking services, and earning fees from related financial products. Key revenue streams include: (1) Net interest income: the spread between interest earned on a...
NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial performance: strong lending and deposit growth, notable AUM inflows, improved profitability and efficiency, robust capital generation and upgraded income guidance. Management also emphasized strategic progress (Evelyn acquisition, AI‑driven development, climate finance). However, the quarter included notable cautious elements — a GBP 140m macro‑driven provision, mortgage margin headwinds from COVID roll‑offs, some market‑driven AUMA volatility, and short‑term cost lumpiness related to investment and the Evelyn deal. Management framed these as managed risks within a resilient, well‑capitalized franchise.Positive Updates
Strong lending and deposit growth
Customer lending grew 6.6% year‑on‑year to GBP 400bn with GBP 7.3bn of lending growth in Q1 (including GBP 3.3bn mortgages and GBP 3.8bn Commercial & Institutional). Customer deposits grew 2.6% year‑on‑year to GBP 445bn, supporting balance‑sheet growth.
Negative Updates
Additional provisioning and elevated impairment in Q1
Impairment charge of GBP 283m (26bps of loans) in Q1 included an additional GBP 140m provision driven by revised macroeconomic assumptions; underlying impairment excluding the scenario charge was 16bps. ECL balance of GBP 3.7bn with an ECL coverage ratio of 84bps.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong lending and deposit growth
Customer lending grew 6.6% year‑on‑year to GBP 400bn with GBP 7.3bn of lending growth in Q1 (including GBP 3.3bn mortgages and GBP 3.8bn Commercial & Institutional). Customer deposits grew 2.6% year‑on‑year to GBP 445bn, supporting balance‑sheet growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management confirmed updated 2026 guidance with income, excluding notable items and Evelyn Partners, expected at the top end of the GBP 17.2–17.6 billion range (assuming Bank Rate stays at 3.75%), cost guidance around GBP 8.2 billion, and RoTE target unchanged at greater than 17%; they reiterated an expected loan impairment rate below 25 basis points for 2026 and around 200 basis points of capital generation before distributions this year while operating at a CET1 ratio of roughly 13% (Q1 CET1 stood at 14.3% with 65bps capital generation in the quarter). Other metrics supporting the guidance included Q1 income of GBP 4.2bn, cost/income of 46.5%, customer lending up 6.6% y/y to GBP 400bn, deposits up 2.6% to GBP 445bn, CAL growth target of >4% p.a. to 2028, and hedge reinvestment rates of c.3.9% (product hedge) and 4.7% (equity hedge) on average.NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 29.48B | 28.57B | 24.76B | 16.15B | 12.04B |
| Gross Profit | 16.61B | 14.65B | 14.78B | 13.35B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 8.86B | 7.25B | 7.11B | 5.96B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 5.83B | 4.80B | 4.64B | 3.59B | 3.27B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 714.55B | 707.99B | 692.67B | 720.05B | 781.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 98.23B | 106.93B | 116.47B | 154.98B | 261.23B |
| Total Debt | 71.83B | 65.92B | 60.07B | 55.32B | 58.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 671.94B | 668.61B | 655.49B | 683.56B | 740.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 42.60B | 39.35B | 37.16B | 36.49B | 41.80B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.79B | 694.00M | -18.99B | -44.24B | 52.79B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.07B | 1.77B | -17.44B | -43.60B | 53.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.77B | -12.70B | -14.69B | 19.06B | 3.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.49B | -1.89B | -6.30B | -10.65B | -2.60B |
NatWest Group Technical Analysis
Positive
16.38
Price Trends
15.70
Positive
15.89
Positive
15.38
Positive
Market Momentum
0.13
Negative
56.41
Neutral
75.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.68, above the 50-day MA of 15.70, and above the 200-day MA of 15.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWG.
NatWest Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $127.45B | 10.29 | 18.94% | 3.27% | -10.12% | 13.24% | |
73 Outperform | $321.13B | 14.15 | 12.07% | 4.14% | -6.12% | 12.49% | |
71 Outperform | $86.48B | 11.84 | 12.71% | 4.14% | 10.57% | 19.15% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
64 Neutral | $63.08B | 8.03 | 14.55% | 3.67% | 7.21% | 26.24% | |
64 Neutral | $180.25B | 9.75 | 15.73% | 1.85% | -14.46% | 36.76% | |
62 Neutral | $83.59B | 8.78 | 9.46% | 1.71% | 12.95% | 21.64% |
* Financial Sector Average
NWG
NatWest Group
16.19
2.58
18.99%
BBVA
Banco Bilbao
22.83
8.27
56.78%
BCS
Barclays
25.01
7.15
40.06%
HSBC
HSBC Holdings
92.62
35.42
61.93%
ING
ING Groep
30.65
10.42
51.48%
SAN
Banco Santander SA
12.47
4.58
57.95%
NatWest Group Corporate Events
NatWest Discloses Capital Group Stake Dip Below 5% Threshold
Mar 26, 2026
NatWest Group plc disclosed that The Capital Group Companies, Inc., a major U.S.-based investment management group, has reduced its holding in NatWest to 4.991397% of voting rights as of 24 March 2026, from a previous level of 5.005597%. The posit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.