Natwest Group Plc (NWG)
NYSE:NWG
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NatWest Group
(NYSE:NWG)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
â–¼(-8.42% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by mid-range financial performance—good profitability and an improving balance sheet, but weighed down by volatile revenue and inconsistent cash flow. Technicals are weak with bearish trend signals despite oversold readings. Valuation is a clear positive with a low P/E and supported dividend yield, while the earnings call was constructive on returns and capital generation but highlighted meaningful macro, regulatory, and acquisition execution risks.
Positive Factors
Capital generation & CET1 strength
Consistent capital generation and a 14% CET1 ratio provide durable loss-absorbing capacity and strategic optionality. This strengthens the bank's ability to absorb regulatory RWA shocks, support lending, pay dividends/buybacks and execute organic or inorganic growth without immediate external capital raises.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Repeated negative operating and free cash flow reduces financial flexibility and increases reliance on funding markets. Over time this constrains the bank's ability to sustainably fund dividends, buybacks or M&A, and raises sensitivity to funding cost shocks and liquidity stress scenarios.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Capital generation & CET1 strength
Consistent capital generation and a 14% CET1 ratio provide durable loss-absorbing capacity and strategic optionality. This strengthens the bank's ability to absorb regulatory RWA shocks, support lending, pay dividends/buybacks and execute organic or inorganic growth without immediate external capital raises.
Read all positive factors
NatWest Group (NWG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$56.93B
Dividend Yield3.67%
Average Volume (3M)4.57M
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.5
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth7.43%
EPS Growth30.31%
CountryUS
Employees59,400
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding3,992,056,400
10 Day Avg. Volume5,131,842
30 Day Avg. Volume4,568,147
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.16
Price to Book (P/B)0.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.89
P/FCF Ratio4.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.99
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.29
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.11B
NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services to personal, commercial, corporate, and institutional customers in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking, ...
How the Company Makes Money
NatWest Group makes money mainly by intermediating deposits and lending, charging for banking services, and earning fees from related financial products. Key revenue streams include: (1) Net interest income: the spread between interest earned on a...
NatWest Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Income by Segment
Details the total income generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which parts of the business are contributing most to overall revenue.
Details the total income generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which parts of the business are contributing most to overall revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNatWest Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 13, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong operating performance in 2025 with double‑digit income growth, robust lending and AUMA expansion, meaningful cost savings and high capital generation. Management set ambitious 2028 targets (RoTE >18%, CAL growth >4% p.a., cost/income <45%, CET1 ~13%) and articulated strategic rationale for the Evelyn Partners acquisition to accelerate wealth capabilities. Key risks highlighted include near‑term rate cut headwinds, regulatory RWA increases (Basel 3.1/CRD IV), integration and day‑one CET1 impact from the Evelyn deal, and sensitivity of future hedge income to reinvestment rates. On balance the positives (growth, profitability, capital generation, efficiency gains and strategic scale in wealth) outweigh the manageable and disclosed risks, though outcomes remain sensitive to macro, regulatory and execution dynamics.Positive Updates
Strong top-line and profitability
Income (excluding notable items) grew 12% to GBP 16.4bn, operating profit was GBP 7.7bn and profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was GBP 5.5bn. Return on tangible equity was 19.2% and EPS rose 27% to 68p.
Negative Updates
Rate and hedging uncertainties
Management expects Bank Rate cuts in 2026 (terminal ~3.25% end-2026) which are modeled to be a GBP ~500m drag on income in 2026; hedge assumptions and reinvestment yields drive material earnings sensitivity (management expects hedge income to increase ~GBP 1.5bn in 2026 vs 2025 but this depends on reinvestment yields and notional growth).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong top-line and profitability
Income (excluding notable items) grew 12% to GBP 16.4bn, operating profit was GBP 7.7bn and profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was GBP 5.5bn. Return on tangible equity was 19.2% and EPS rose 27% to 68p.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The management guided that, excluding Evelyn Partners, 2026 income (ex-notables) is expected to be GBP 17.2–17.6bn with other operating expenses around GBP 8.2bn, a loan impairment rate below 25bps and capital generation of ~200bps before distributions (2026 guidance excludes the Jan‑1‑2027 Basel 3.1 ~GBP 10bn RWA impact); they expect RoTE >17% in 2026 and reiterated a CET1 operating target of around 13%. Longer‑term 2028 targets include CAL growth >4% p.a. (2025–28), a cost/income ratio <45%, >200bps capital generation before distributions while operating at ~13% CET1, and RoTE >18% with a c.50% dividend payout ratio (with scope for buybacks). Management also expects strong hedge tailwinds (2026 hedge income ~GBP 1.5bn higher than 2025, 2027 ~GBP 1bn higher than 2026, targeting total hedge income ~GBP 7.2bn by 2027), product/equity hedge yield rising (c.2.4% in 2025 to ~3.1% in 2026) and hedge notional increasing (c.£198bn → ~£200bn), ECL provisioning of c.£3.6bn with coverage ~83bps, and a through‑the‑cycle cost‑of‑risk framework of 20–30bps.NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 29.48B | 28.57B | 24.76B | 16.15B | 12.04B |
| Gross Profit | 16.61B | 14.65B | 14.78B | 13.35B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 8.86B | 7.25B | 7.11B | 5.96B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 5.83B | 4.80B | 4.64B | 3.59B | 3.27B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 714.55B | 707.99B | 692.67B | 720.05B | 781.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 98.23B | 106.93B | 116.47B | 154.98B | 261.23B |
| Total Debt | 71.83B | 65.92B | 60.07B | 55.32B | 58.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 671.94B | 668.61B | 655.49B | 683.56B | 740.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 42.60B | 39.35B | 37.16B | 36.49B | 41.80B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5.79B | 694.00M | -18.99B | -44.24B | 52.79B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.07B | 1.77B | -17.44B | -43.60B | 53.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -13.77B | -12.70B | -14.69B | 19.06B | 3.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.49B | -1.89B | -6.30B | -10.65B | -2.60B |
NatWest Group Technical Analysis
Negative
16.38
Price Trends
15.99
Negative
15.96
Negative
14.76
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.47
Negative
39.17
Neutral
33.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.88, above the 50-day MA of 15.99, and above the 200-day MA of 14.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NWG.
NatWest Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $120.24B | 11.69 | 18.53% | 3.27% | 7.52% | 10.40% | |
72 Outperform | $160.40B | 10.97 | 13.89% | 1.85% | -15.34% | 16.71% | |
71 Outperform | $274.47B | 12.28 | 11.88% | 4.14% | -9.54% | -22.46% | |
71 Outperform | $71.75B | 11.24 | 12.46% | 4.14% | 2.20% | -0.17% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
60 Neutral | $70.66B | 9.29 | 9.41% | 1.71% | 17.50% | 49.25% | |
58 Neutral | $56.93B | 4.48 | 14.33% | 3.67% | 7.43% | 30.31% |
* Financial Sector Average
NWG
NatWest Group
14.30
2.85
24.93%
BBVA
Banco Bilbao
20.92
7.42
55.01%
BCS
Barclays
20.66
5.09
32.68%
HSBC
HSBC Holdings
79.63
24.19
43.62%
ING
ING Groep
25.12
6.15
32.45%
SAN
Banco Santander SA
10.77
3.99
58.83%
NatWest Group Corporate Events
NatWest Group Updates Total Voting Rights as of 31 December 2025
Dec 31, 2025
On 31 December 2025, NatWest Group plc reported its total voting rights and issued share capital in line with UK Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. As at that date, the bank had 8,006,684,747 ordinary shares in issue (excluding 221,209,48...
NatWest Group Buys Back and Cancels 814,080 Shares Under Ongoing Programme
Dec 30, 2025
On 30 December 2025, NatWest Group plc reported that it had repurchased 814,080 of its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange as part of its existing share buyback programme, at a volume-weighted average price of 652.02 pence per share. The ...
NatWest Group Buys Back and Cancels 852,470 Shares in Latest Capital Return Move
Dec 29, 2025
On 29 December 2025, NatWest Group plc reported that it had repurchased 852,470 of its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange as part of its ongoing share buyback programme, at a volume-weighted average price of 645.62 pence per share. The b...
NatWest Continues Capital Return with December Share Buyback and Planned Cancellation
Dec 29, 2025
On 24 December 2025, NatWest Group plc repurchased 193,319 of its own ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange from Merrill Lynch International as part of its ongoing share buyback programme initiated in July 2025. The shares, bought at a volu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.