tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Natwest Group Plc (NWG)
NYSE:NWG

NatWest Group (NWG) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
604 Followers

Top Page

NWG

NatWest Group

(NYSE:NWG)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Outperform 81 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$19.50
▲(19.05% Upside)
NatWest Group's strong earnings call performance and bullish technical indicators are the most significant factors driving the high score. The company's solid financial foundation and attractive valuation further support the positive outlook, despite some challenges in deposit stability and mortgage margins.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, supporting long-term financial health.
Capital Strength
A strong CET1 ratio and share buyback program reflect robust capital management, enhancing financial stability and shareholder value.
Cash Flow Improvement
Improved cash flow management enhances liquidity and operational flexibility, supporting sustainable growth and investment capacity.
Negative Factors
Deposit Stability Challenges
Instability in deposit balances can affect liquidity and funding costs, posing risks to the bank's financial stability and growth prospects.
Mortgage Margin Pressure
Competitive pressure on mortgage margins may reduce profitability, impacting the bank's ability to generate sustainable earnings.
Impairment Charges
Rising impairment charges indicate potential credit risk exposure, which could affect the bank's profitability and capital reserves.

NatWest Group (NWG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services to personal, commercial, corporate, and institutional customers in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through Retail Banking, Commercial Banking, Private Banking, RBS International, and NatWest Markets segments. The Retail Banking segment offers a range of banking products and related financial services, such as current accounts, mortgages, personal unsecured lending, and personal deposits, as well as mobile and online banking services. The Commercial Banking segment offers banking and financing solutions to start-up, SME, commercial, corporate, and institutional customers. The Private Banking segment provides private banking and wealth management products for high-net-worth individuals and their business interests. The RBS International segment offers banking various products and services to institutional customers. It also operates in wholesale branches and fund depositary service businesses. The NatWest Markets segment provides services to corporate and institutional customers for the management of financial risks for achieving short-term and long-term sustainable financial goals. NatWest Group plc operates approximately 800 branches and 16,000 physical points of presence. The company was formerly known as The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc and changed its name to NatWest Group plc in July 2020. NatWest Group plc was founded in 1727 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyNatWest Group generates revenue primarily through interest income, fees, and commissions associated with its banking services. The company earns interest income by lending to individuals and businesses, with interest rates set based on market conditions and borrower creditworthiness. Key revenue streams include personal loans, mortgages, credit cards, and business loans. Additionally, NatWest earns fees from account maintenance, transaction services, and wealth management offerings. The bank also benefits from partnerships with fintech companies and other financial institutions to enhance its service offerings and expand its customer base. Economic factors such as interest rates, regulatory changes, and market competition can significantly influence the company's financial performance.

NatWest Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Income by Segment
Total Income by Segment
Shows revenue generation across different business areas, helping investors understand which segments contribute most to the company’s top line.
Chart InsightsNatWest Group's Commercial & Institutional segment is driving income growth, with a strong upward trend since 2022. Despite a dip in Retail Banking income in 2024, the overall outlook is positive, bolstered by the recent acquisition of Sainsbury's Bank, which adds significant customer accounts and lending capacity. The earnings call highlights robust financial performance and updated guidance, projecting income at the upper end of expectations. However, potential regulatory impacts and economic uncertainties could pose risks to sustained growth.
Data provided by:The Fly

NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 24, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance for the quarter, with significant growth in income, lending, and customer base, alongside improved cost efficiency. However, challenges related to deposit stability and mortgage margin pressure, along with impairment charges, were noted. Despite these challenges, the positive aspects of growth and profitability were more pronounced.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Lending Growth
Lending has grown 4.4% since the year-end to GBP 388 billion. Mortgage lending increased by more than GBP 5 billion in the first 9 months. Unsecured lending grew GBP 2.9 billion or 17.3%, and commercial and institutional lending grew GBP 7.9 billion or 5.5%.
Robust Income and Profit Growth
Income grew to GBP 12.1 billion, 12.5% higher than the first 9 months last year. Operating profit was GBP 5.8 billion with an attributable profit of GBP 4.1 billion. Return on tangible equity was 19.5%.
Increased Customer Base and Engagement
Attracted 70,000 new customers in the quarter. Significant progress in integrating Sainsbury's customers, enhancing customer engagement through the NatWest app.
Capital and Shareholder Returns
CET1 ratio of 14.2% with a new share buyback of GBP 750 million announced, half of which has been completed. Earnings per share increased by 32.4% year-on-year.
Improved Cost Efficiency
Cost/income ratio decreased by 5 percentage points to 47.8%. Operating expenses grew slightly by 1% due to integration costs, but overall cost management was effective.
Negative Updates
Deposit Stability Challenges
Retail banking deposit balances were down GBP 0.8 billion, with lower fixed-term saving balances following large maturities, reflecting some instability in the deposit mix.
Mortgage Margin Pressure
Mortgage margins are under pressure due to intense competition, with new writing below the average book margin of 70 basis points.
Impairment Charges
Reported a net impairment charge of GBP 153 million for the third quarter, equivalent to 15 basis points of loans on an annualized basis.
Company Guidance
In the NatWest Group Q3 2025 earnings call, the management provided updated full-year guidance, reflecting strong financial performance. For 2025, NatWest expects total income, excluding notable items, to reach approximately GBP 16.3 billion and anticipates a return on tangible equity (RoTE) greater than 18%. The bank reported a 4.4% growth in lending to GBP 388 billion, with mortgage and unsecured lending contributing significantly. Deposits rose by 0.8% to GBP 435 billion, and assets under management increased by 14.5% to GBP 56 billion. The cost/income ratio improved by 5 percentage points to 47.8%, aided by a 2.5% increase in costs to GBP 5.9 billion. NatWest's CET1 ratio stood at 14.2%, supported by strong capital generation of 202 basis points over the nine months. The bank also plans to complete a GBP 750 million share buyback by year-end. Earnings per share grew by 32.4% year-on-year, with a tangible net asset value per share at 362p.

NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NatWest Group maintains a healthy financial profile with strong equity and improving cash flow. Despite some volatility in profitability and cash flow management, the company's consistent revenue and equity growth provide a solid foundation for future operations.
Income Statement
75
Positive
NatWest Group's income statement reveals moderate financial health with a solid gross profit margin, but the net profit margin has shown fluctuations due to varying net income over the years. The revenue growth rate is relatively stable, indicating consistent business operations. However, the absence of recent EBIT and EBITDA data limits a comprehensive profitability assessment.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet demonstrates strong equity with a favorable equity ratio and zero total debt in the latest period, reducing financial risk. The return on equity is robust, indicating effective use of equity in generating profits. The consistent increase in stockholders' equity highlights a stable financial position, but the high total liabilities warrant attention.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows improvements, with positive free cash flow in the latest year after previous deficits, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests that cash earnings are catching up with accounting earnings, yet historical fluctuations in cash flows present potential volatility concerns.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.28B28.57B14.17B12.98B11.75B13.08B
Gross Profit15.49B14.65B14.17B12.98B10.34B10.76B
EBITDA7.86B7.25B7.12B5.96B4.77B361.00M
Net Income5.25B4.80B4.64B3.59B3.27B-372.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets730.78B707.99B692.67B720.05B781.99B799.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments90.71B93.05B104.52B145.06B261.23B209.81B
Total Debt69.96B65.92B60.07B39.93B58.33B56.53B
Total Liabilities688.80B668.61B655.49B683.56B740.19B755.67B
Stockholders Equity41.96B39.35B37.16B36.49B41.80B43.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00694.00M-14.92B-44.24B52.79B28.72B
Operating Cash Flow0.001.77B-13.37B-43.60B53.69B29.09B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-12.70B-14.69B19.06B3.06B7.55B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-1.89B-23.52B-10.65B-2.60B90.00M

NatWest Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price16.38
Price Trends
50DMA
17.06
Positive
100DMA
15.94
Positive
200DMA
14.78
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.31
Negative
RSI
63.90
Neutral
STOCH
77.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.64, below the 50-day MA of 17.06, and above the 200-day MA of 14.78, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWG.

NatWest Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$72.67B10.5614.58%3.67%7.43%30.31%
78
Outperform
$302.28B18.588.66%4.14%-9.54%-22.46%
77
Outperform
$91.85B12.269.44%1.71%17.50%49.25%
76
Outperform
$144.79B12.8218.00%3.27%7.52%10.40%
72
Outperform
$187.51B12.7012.54%1.85%-15.34%16.71%
71
Outperform
$83.40B12.3412.79%4.14%2.20%-0.17%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NWG
NatWest Group
18.23
8.12
80.32%
BBVA
Banco Bilbao
25.42
14.86
140.81%
BCS
Barclays
26.75
12.73
90.74%
HSBC
HSBC Holdings
88.01
39.40
81.05%
ING
ING Groep
29.39
14.02
91.19%
SAN
Banco Santander SA
12.75
7.91
163.27%

NatWest Group Corporate Events

NatWest Group Updates Total Voting Rights as of 31 December 2025
Dec 31, 2025

On 31 December 2025, NatWest Group plc reported its total voting rights and issued share capital in line with UK Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules. As at that date, the bank had 8,006,684,747 ordinary shares in issue (excluding 221,209,481 held in treasury), each carrying four votes, resulting in 32,026,738,988 exercisable voting rights from ordinary shares, plus a small number of 11% and 5.5% cumulative preference shares bringing total voting rights to 32,028,671,548 across 8,228,377,368 issued shares. The disclosure, filed with the US SEC on Form 6-K, provides investors with an updated denominator for calculating notifiable holdings in NatWest, underlining the group’s ongoing compliance with transparency requirements and giving shareholders clarity on the impact of treasury stock and preference share structure on their voting power.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Buys Back and Cancels 814,080 Shares Under Ongoing Programme
Dec 30, 2025

On 30 December 2025, NatWest Group plc reported that it had repurchased 814,080 of its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange as part of its existing share buyback programme, at a volume-weighted average price of 652.02 pence per share. The bank intends to cancel the repurchased shares, which will leave it holding 221,209,481 shares in treasury and 8,005,018,197 ordinary shares in issue, reinforcing its ongoing capital-return strategy and potentially enhancing earnings per share for investors by reducing the overall share count.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Buys Back and Cancels 852,470 Shares in Latest Capital Return Move
Dec 29, 2025

On 29 December 2025, NatWest Group plc reported that it had repurchased 852,470 of its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange as part of its ongoing share buyback programme, at a volume-weighted average price of 645.62 pence per share. The bank plans to cancel the repurchased shares, which will reduce its share count and can enhance earnings per share, and following settlement it will hold 221,400,708 ordinary shares in treasury with 8,005,641,050 ordinary shares in issue (excluding treasury), underscoring continued capital return to shareholders and active balance sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Continues Capital Return with December Share Buyback and Planned Cancellation
Dec 29, 2025

On 24 December 2025, NatWest Group plc repurchased 193,319 of its own ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange from Merrill Lynch International as part of its ongoing share buyback programme initiated in July 2025. The shares, bought at a volume-weighted average price of 647.46 pence, are intended to be cancelled, leaving NatWest with 221,577,438 shares held in treasury and 8,006,316,790 ordinary shares in issue excluding treasury stock, a move that further reduces the bank’s free-float share count and signals continued capital return to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Continues Share Buyback with £1.2m Share Repurchase on 19 December 2025
Dec 19, 2025

On 19 December 2025, NatWest Group plc disclosed that it had repurchased 1,215,751 of its ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange as part of its ongoing share buyback programme, with prices ranging between 638p and 648p and a volume-weighted average price of 642.79p. The shares, bought from Merrill Lynch International under instructions first issued in July 2025, are intended to be cancelled, leaving the bank with 223,527,128 shares held in treasury and 8,006,214,428 ordinary shares in issue, a move that marginally reduces the free float and can enhance earnings per share, underlining the group’s continuing capital-return strategy to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Buys Back Over 1 Million Shares for Cancellation
Dec 18, 2025

On 18 December 2025, NatWest Group plc disclosed that it had repurchased 1,051,321 of its ordinary shares from Merrill Lynch International as part of its previously announced share buyback programme, paying a volume-weighted average price of 635.71 pence per share on the London Stock Exchange. The bank intends to cancel the repurchased shares, which will leave it holding 229,911,261 shares in treasury and 8,001,046,046 ordinary shares in issue, a move that supports capital return to shareholders and marginally enhances earnings per share by reducing the stock’s free float.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Completes Share Repurchase to Enhance Capital Structure
Dec 17, 2025

NatWest Group announced on December 17, 2025, a significant transaction within its share buyback program, purchasing 832,295 ordinary shares through Merrill Lynch International at prices ranging from 636.60 GBp to 646.20 GBp on the London Stock Exchange. The repurchased shares will be canceled, reflecting the company’s commitment to managing its capital structure effectively. Following the settlement, NatWest will hold 229,960,749 shares in treasury, leaving 8,002,047,879 ordinary shares outstanding, a move that is likely to bolster shareholder value and highlight the group’s focus on strengthening its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback to Enhance Shareholder Value
Dec 16, 2025

On December 16, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 845,063 of its own ordinary shares from Merrill Lynch International as part of its ongoing share buyback program. This transaction, which was initially instructed in July 2025, is aimed at reducing the number of shares in circulation, thereby potentially increasing the value of remaining shares. The purchased shares will be canceled, leaving the company with 229,960,749 shares in treasury and 8,002,880,174 shares in issue. This move reflects NatWest’s strategic effort to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback on December 15, 2025
Dec 15, 2025

On December 15, 2025, NatWest Group announced the purchase of 845,216 of its own ordinary shares from Merrill Lynch International as part of its ongoing share buyback program. This transaction, executed under previously issued instructions, aims to enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation, thereby potentially increasing the value of remaining shares. The company plans to cancel the repurchased shares, which will leave it with 229,960,749 shares in treasury and 8,003,725,237 shares in issue.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Sees Change in Major Shareholder Voting Rights
Dec 15, 2025

On December 11, 2025, Massachusetts Financial Services Company reduced its voting rights in NatWest Group plc from 5.167092% to 4.936000%. This change in holdings was officially notified to NatWest on December 12, 2025. The adjustment in voting rights could potentially impact the influence Massachusetts Financial Services holds in the strategic decisions of NatWest Group, reflecting a shift in investment strategy or portfolio management by the financial services company.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Enhances Shareholder Value with Share Buyback
Oct 24, 2025

On October 24, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 269,316 of its own ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. These transactions, executed through Merrill Lynch International, are part of a strategy to enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation. The company plans to cancel the repurchased shares, which will impact its treasury holdings and total shares in issue. This move is expected to strengthen NatWest’s market position by optimizing its capital structure and potentially increasing the value of remaining shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Releases Fourth Supplementary Prospectus for Euro Medium Term Note Programme
Oct 24, 2025

On October 24, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the publication of a Fourth Supplementary Prospectus for its £40 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, initially established on December 6, 2024. This development, approved by the Financial Conduct Authority, signifies a strategic move to enhance NatWest’s financial instruments and market offerings, potentially impacting its stakeholders by providing more investment opportunities and reinforcing its position in the financial market.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance
Oct 24, 2025

NatWest Group reported a strong financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with total income rising to £4.2 billion and an attributable profit of £1.6 billion. The bank’s strategic focus on growth and simplification has led to increased lending, stable deposits, and a significant improvement in efficiency, as evidenced by a 5% reduction in the cost:income ratio. The bank’s capital generation and active balance sheet management have positioned it well for future growth, with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 14.2%.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Highlights Risks in Achieving Strategic Targets
Oct 24, 2025

On October 24, 2025, NatWest Group released a report highlighting the inherent risks and uncertainties associated with its forward-looking statements, particularly concerning its financial and sustainability targets. The company emphasized the challenges in achieving its strategic goals due to economic, political, and regulatory factors, as well as the evolving nature of climate-related disclosures. This announcement underscores the complexities NatWest faces in aligning its operations with its ambitious net-zero and financial performance objectives, potentially impacting stakeholder expectations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

NatWest Group Announces Share Buyback Completion
Oct 23, 2025

On October 23, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 919,632 of its own ordinary shares from Merrill Lynch International as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares, bought at a volume-weighted average price of 546.81 GBp, will be canceled, reducing the total number of shares in circulation and potentially increasing the value of remaining shares, thereby impacting shareholder value positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (NWG) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NatWest Group stock, see the NWG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 03, 2025