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Natwest Group Plc (NWG)
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NatWest Group (NWG) AI Stock Analysis

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NWG

NatWest Group

(NYSE:NWG)

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Outperform 78 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$16.50
â–²(14.98% Upside)
NatWest Group's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors contributing to the score. The stock's attractive valuation further supports its potential, while technical analysis indicates a stable market position. Despite some challenges, the overall outlook remains positive.

NatWest Group (NWG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNatWest Group (NWG) is a leading banking and financial services organization based in the United Kingdom. It operates primarily in the retail and commercial banking sectors, offering a wide range of core products and services, including personal banking, business banking, corporate banking, and wealth management. NWG serves millions of customers through its various brands, including NatWest, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Ulster Bank, providing services such as loans, mortgages, accounts, insurance, and investment solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyNatWest Group generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from interest income and non-interest income. Interest income is earned from loans and advances to customers, including personal loans, mortgages, and business loans, where the bank charges interest on the borrowed amounts. Non-interest income is derived from fees and commissions from various banking services, such as account maintenance fees, transaction fees, investment management fees, and insurance premiums. The bank also benefits from treasury operations and foreign exchange services. Additionally, partnerships with fintech companies and other financial institutions enhance its service offerings and customer reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

NatWest Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Income by Segment
Total Income by Segment
Shows revenue generation across different business areas, helping investors understand which segments contribute most to the company’s top line.
Chart InsightsNatWest Group's Commercial & Institutional segment is driving income growth, with a strong upward trend since 2022. Despite a dip in Retail Banking income in 2024, the overall outlook is positive, bolstered by the recent acquisition of Sainsbury's Bank, which adds significant customer accounts and lending capacity. The earnings call highlights robust financial performance and updated guidance, projecting income at the upper end of expectations. However, potential regulatory impacts and economic uncertainties could pose risks to sustained growth.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 24, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong financial performance for the quarter, with significant growth in income, lending, and customer base, alongside improved cost efficiency. However, challenges related to deposit stability and mortgage margin pressure, along with impairment charges, were noted. Despite these challenges, the positive aspects of growth and profitability were more pronounced.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Lending Growth
Lending has grown 4.4% since the year-end to GBP 388 billion. Mortgage lending increased by more than GBP 5 billion in the first 9 months. Unsecured lending grew GBP 2.9 billion or 17.3%, and commercial and institutional lending grew GBP 7.9 billion or 5.5%.
Robust Income and Profit Growth
Income grew to GBP 12.1 billion, 12.5% higher than the first 9 months last year. Operating profit was GBP 5.8 billion with an attributable profit of GBP 4.1 billion. Return on tangible equity was 19.5%.
Increased Customer Base and Engagement
Attracted 70,000 new customers in the quarter. Significant progress in integrating Sainsbury's customers, enhancing customer engagement through the NatWest app.
Capital and Shareholder Returns
CET1 ratio of 14.2% with a new share buyback of GBP 750 million announced, half of which has been completed. Earnings per share increased by 32.4% year-on-year.
Improved Cost Efficiency
Cost/income ratio decreased by 5 percentage points to 47.8%. Operating expenses grew slightly by 1% due to integration costs, but overall cost management was effective.
Negative Updates
Deposit Stability Challenges
Retail banking deposit balances were down GBP 0.8 billion, with lower fixed-term saving balances following large maturities, reflecting some instability in the deposit mix.
Mortgage Margin Pressure
Mortgage margins are under pressure due to intense competition, with new writing below the average book margin of 70 basis points.
Impairment Charges
Reported a net impairment charge of GBP 153 million for the third quarter, equivalent to 15 basis points of loans on an annualized basis.
Company Guidance
In the NatWest Group Q3 2025 earnings call, the management provided updated full-year guidance, reflecting strong financial performance. For 2025, NatWest expects total income, excluding notable items, to reach approximately GBP 16.3 billion and anticipates a return on tangible equity (RoTE) greater than 18%. The bank reported a 4.4% growth in lending to GBP 388 billion, with mortgage and unsecured lending contributing significantly. Deposits rose by 0.8% to GBP 435 billion, and assets under management increased by 14.5% to GBP 56 billion. The cost/income ratio improved by 5 percentage points to 47.8%, aided by a 2.5% increase in costs to GBP 5.9 billion. NatWest's CET1 ratio stood at 14.2%, supported by strong capital generation of 202 basis points over the nine months. The bank also plans to complete a GBP 750 million share buyback by year-end. Earnings per share grew by 32.4% year-on-year, with a tangible net asset value per share at 362p.

NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NatWest Group maintains a healthy financial profile with strong equity and improving cash flow. Despite some volatility in profitability and cash flow management, the company's consistent revenue and equity growth provide a solid foundation for future operations.
Income Statement
75
Positive
NatWest Group's income statement reveals moderate financial health with a solid gross profit margin, but the net profit margin has shown fluctuations due to varying net income over the years. The revenue growth rate is relatively stable, indicating consistent business operations. However, the absence of recent EBIT and EBITDA data limits a comprehensive profitability assessment.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet demonstrates strong equity with a favorable equity ratio and zero total debt in the latest period, reducing financial risk. The return on equity is robust, indicating effective use of equity in generating profits. The consistent increase in stockholders' equity highlights a stable financial position, but the high total liabilities warrant attention.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows improvements, with positive free cash flow in the latest year after previous deficits, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests that cash earnings are catching up with accounting earnings, yet historical fluctuations in cash flows present potential volatility concerns.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.28B28.57B14.17B12.98B11.75B7.69B
Gross Profit15.49B14.65B14.17B12.98B10.34B10.80B
EBITDA7.86B7.25B7.12B5.96B4.77B361.00M
Net Income5.25B4.80B4.64B3.59B3.27B-372.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets730.78B707.99B692.67B720.05B781.99B799.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments90.71B93.05B104.52B145.06B177.76B124.49B
Total Debt69.96B65.92B38.16B39.93B40.20B9.96B
Total Liabilities688.80B668.61B655.49B683.56B740.19B755.67B
Stockholders Equity41.96B39.35B37.16B36.49B41.80B43.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00694.00M-14.92B-44.24B52.79B28.72B
Operating Cash Flow0.001.77B-13.37B-43.60B53.69B29.09B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-12.70B-14.69B19.06B3.06B7.55B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-1.89B-23.52B-10.65B-2.60B90.00M

NatWest Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price14.35
Price Trends
50DMA
14.54
Positive
100DMA
14.22
Positive
200DMA
13.12
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.32
Negative
RSI
67.15
Neutral
STOCH
75.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.01, below the 50-day MA of 14.54, and above the 200-day MA of 13.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWG.

NatWest Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$241.58B14.748.66%4.55%-9.54%-22.46%
78
Outperform
$61.35B8.8314.58%4.07%7.43%30.31%
77
Outperform
$74.16B9.749.44%2.02%17.50%49.25%
72
Outperform
$76.18B11.4211.71%4.58%2.20%-0.17%
72
Outperform
$152.18B10.1812.54%2.50%-15.34%16.71%
70
Outperform
$116.03B10.1018.00%4.02%7.52%10.40%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NWG
NatWest Group
15.85
6.37
67.19%
BBVA
Banco Bilbao
20.68
11.36
121.77%
BCS
Barclays
21.59
8.83
69.20%
HSBC
HSBC Holdings
72.01
29.11
67.86%
ING
ING Groep
25.64
10.54
69.80%
SAN
Banco Santander SA
10.29
5.65
121.77%

NatWest Group Corporate Events

NatWest Group Enhances Shareholder Value with Share Buyback
Oct 24, 2025

On October 24, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 269,316 of its own ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. These transactions, executed through Merrill Lynch International, are part of a strategy to enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation. The company plans to cancel the repurchased shares, which will impact its treasury holdings and total shares in issue. This move is expected to strengthen NatWest’s market position by optimizing its capital structure and potentially increasing the value of remaining shares.

NatWest Group Releases Fourth Supplementary Prospectus for Euro Medium Term Note Programme
Oct 24, 2025

On October 24, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the publication of a Fourth Supplementary Prospectus for its £40 billion Euro Medium Term Note Programme, initially established on December 6, 2024. This development, approved by the Financial Conduct Authority, signifies a strategic move to enhance NatWest’s financial instruments and market offerings, potentially impacting its stakeholders by providing more investment opportunities and reinforcing its position in the financial market.

NatWest Group Reports Strong Q3 2025 Performance
Oct 24, 2025

NatWest Group reported a strong financial performance in the third quarter of 2025, with total income rising to £4.2 billion and an attributable profit of £1.6 billion. The bank’s strategic focus on growth and simplification has led to increased lending, stable deposits, and a significant improvement in efficiency, as evidenced by a 5% reduction in the cost:income ratio. The bank’s capital generation and active balance sheet management have positioned it well for future growth, with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 14.2%.

NatWest Group Highlights Risks in Achieving Strategic Targets
Oct 24, 2025

On October 24, 2025, NatWest Group released a report highlighting the inherent risks and uncertainties associated with its forward-looking statements, particularly concerning its financial and sustainability targets. The company emphasized the challenges in achieving its strategic goals due to economic, political, and regulatory factors, as well as the evolving nature of climate-related disclosures. This announcement underscores the complexities NatWest faces in aligning its operations with its ambitious net-zero and financial performance objectives, potentially impacting stakeholder expectations and market positioning.

NatWest Group Announces Share Buyback Completion
Oct 23, 2025

On October 23, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 919,632 of its own ordinary shares from Merrill Lynch International as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares, bought at a volume-weighted average price of 546.81 GBp, will be canceled, reducing the total number of shares in circulation and potentially increasing the value of remaining shares, thereby impacting shareholder value positively.

NatWest Group Advances Share Buyback Program with Recent Purchase
Sep 26, 2025

On September 26, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 188,115 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares were acquired from Merrill Lynch International at a volume-weighted average price of 515.52 GBp per share. This transaction is part of a previously announced buyback initiative from July 2025, aimed at enhancing shareholder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation. Following this transaction, NatWest will hold 230,987,739 shares in treasury, with 8,042,259,240 shares remaining in issue.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback on September 25, 2025
Sep 25, 2025

On September 25, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 2,303,035 of its own ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares were acquired from Merrill Lynch International at prices ranging from 505.20 GBp to 514.60 GBp, with a volume-weighted average price of 507.24 GBp. This transaction is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation. The repurchased shares will be canceled, leaving NatWest with 230,987,739 shares in treasury and 8,042,447,355 shares in issue.

NatWest Group Enhances Shareholder Value with Share Buyback
Sep 25, 2025

On September 24, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 919,577 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. This transaction, executed through Merrill Lynch International, is part of a strategy announced in July 2025 to enhance shareholder value by reducing the number of shares in circulation. The repurchased shares will be canceled, which is expected to impact the company’s capital structure by increasing the value of remaining shares. This move reflects NatWest’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders and maintaining a strong market position.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback on September 16, 2025
Sep 16, 2025

On September 16, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 702,602 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. These shares, acquired from Merrill Lynch International, will be canceled, reducing the total number of shares in circulation and potentially enhancing shareholder value.

NatWest Group Announces Managerial Share Acquisitions Following Dividend Reinvestment
Sep 16, 2025

On 12 September 2025, NatWest Group plc announced that several individuals holding managerial responsibilities within the company acquired ordinary shares through the reinvestment of dividends. This transaction, which took place on the London Stock Exchange, aligns with the company’s policy for shareholding by the Chairman and Non-executive Directors. This move reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning the interests of its leadership with those of its shareholders, potentially strengthening stakeholder confidence in the company’s governance practices.

NatWest CEO to Speak at Bank of America Financials Conference
Sep 16, 2025

On September 16, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced that its CEO, Paul Thwaite, will participate in a fireside chat at the Bank of America Financials Conference. This engagement reflects NatWest’s ongoing efforts to maintain a strong presence in the financial industry and engage with key stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

NatWest Group Enhances Shareholder Value with Share Buyback
Sep 15, 2025

On September 15, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 70,161 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. These shares, acquired from Merrill Lynch International, are intended to be canceled, reducing the total number of shares in circulation. This transaction aligns with the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback on September 5, 2025
Sep 5, 2025

On September 5, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 2,341,343 of its own ordinary shares from Merrill Lynch International as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares, purchased at a volume-weighted average price of 508.91 GBp, are intended to be canceled, reducing the number of shares in circulation and potentially increasing shareholder value. This transaction reflects NatWest’s strategic efforts to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder returns.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback on September 4, 2025
Sep 4, 2025

On September 4, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 1,371,700 of its own ordinary shares from Merrill Lynch International as part of an ongoing share buyback program. This transaction, executed on the London Stock Exchange, is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure by reducing the number of shares in circulation, which could potentially enhance shareholder value.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback on August 8, 2025
Aug 8, 2025

On August 8, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 1,931,618 of its own ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares were bought from Merrill Lynch International at prices ranging from 514.60 GBp to 521.60 GBp, with a volume-weighted average price of 518.64 GBp. This transaction follows instructions issued by the company on July 25, 2025, and announced on July 28, 2025. The repurchased shares are intended to be canceled, which will affect the company’s share capital structure by increasing the number of shares held in treasury to 231,259,394.

NatWest Group Announces Share Transactions for PDMRs
Aug 8, 2025

On August 7, 2025, NatWest Group plc delivered ordinary shares to its Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibility (PDMRs) as part of the 2024 Employee Share Plan. These shares, calculated at a price of £5.2384, represent a fixed share allowance for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The transactions, which took place on the London Stock Exchange, involve shares being withheld to meet tax liabilities and retained shares to be released over five years. Additionally, on August 8, 2025, Scott Marcar, the Group Chief Information Officer, sold 7,759 shares at £5.1634.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback to Enhance Shareholder Value
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the repurchase of 1,998,800 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares were acquired from Merrill Lynch International at a volume-weighted average price of 514.74 GBp per share. This transaction, initiated on July 25, 2025, and announced on July 28, 2025, is part of NatWest’s strategy to manage its capital structure effectively. The repurchased shares will be canceled, resulting in NatWest holding 231,259,394 shares in treasury and having 8,089,472,510 shares in issue. This move is expected to optimize shareholder value and reflects the company’s confidence in its financial health.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 24, 2025