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NatWest Group
(NYSE:NWG)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$21.50
â–²(19.64% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven by strong earnings-call momentum (upgraded guidance, high returns, and robust capital/liquidity) alongside favorable valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield) and supportive technical uptrend. The main offset is mid-range underlying financial quality due to volatile revenue and unreliable cash flow conversion over several years.
Positive Factors
High return on tangible equity
Sustained ROTCE near 20% signals durable operating profitability and disciplined capital allocation. High returns reflect pricing power, efficient capital use and operating leverage, supporting predictable dividends and buybacks and giving flexibility to invest while meeting regulatory capital targets.
Negative Factors
Inconsistent operating cash flow
Repeated negative operating and free cash flow in several years indicates earnings do not reliably convert to cash. That limits balance sheet flexibility, increases dependence on wholesale funding and issuance, and constrains sustainable capital returns during downturns or stress periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High return on tangible equity
Sustained ROTCE near 20% signals durable operating profitability and disciplined capital allocation. High returns reflect pricing power, efficient capital use and operating leverage, supporting predictable dividends and buybacks and giving flexibility to invest while meeting regulatory capital targets.
Read all positive factors
NatWest Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Total Income by Segment
Details the total income generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which parts of the business are contributing most to overall revenue.
Details the total income generated by each segment, offering a clear view of which parts of the business are contributing most to overall revenue.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNatWest Group (NWG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$76.11B
Dividend Yield1.69%
Average Volume (3M)4.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)1.02
Revenue Growth6.60%
EPS Growth29.61%
CountryUS
Employees59,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.00
Shares Outstanding3,979,868,400
10 Day Avg. Volume3,798,977
30 Day Avg. Volume4,835,039
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.17
Price to Book (P/B)0.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.89
P/FCF Ratio4.52
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.60Price Target Upside31.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)2.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.34B
NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NatWest Group plc is a leading financial institution that delivers a broad spectrum of banking and financial services to individual customers, businesses, corporations, and institutional clients across the United Kingdom and globally. The company'...
How the Company Makes Money
NatWest Group makes money primarily through banking income streams tied to lending, deposits, and transaction services. A major driver is net interest income: the group earns interest on loans and other interest-earning assets (such as mortgages, ...
NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operating and financial performance: robust income and customer growth, improving operating leverage, industry-leading returns, strong capital generation and healthy liquidity. Headwinds are manageable — primarily forthcoming regulatory changes (Basel 3.1 RWA uplift), remaining 2026 issuance/refinancing needs, near-term repayments under TFSME and continued macroeconomic uncertainty — but management has clear plans and headroom to address them. Overall, highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Industry-leading returns
Return on tangible equity was 19.7% for the half, reached 21% in the quarter, and management upgraded 2026 returns guidance to >19% (and now targets >19% ROTCE for the year).
Negative Updates
Cost-to-income still above target
Although improved, cost-to-income remains at 46% (above the 2028 ambition of <45%), and other operating expenses are still guided to around GBP 8.5bn for 2026.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Industry-leading returns
Return on tangible equity was 19.7% for the half, reached 21% in the quarter, and management upgraded 2026 returns guidance to >19% (and now targets >19% ROTCE for the year).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management strengthened 2026 guidance and set clear metric targets: income (ex‑notables) ~£17.9bn, other operating expenses ~£8.5bn, capital generation before distributions (and Evelyn Partners) >240bps, and return on tangible equity >19% (H1 RoTE 19.7%, Q2 21%); loan‑impairment rate expected <25bps for 2026 (Q2 charge £140m =13bps). Key balance‑sheet and capital metrics: CET1 13.2% post‑Evelyn (14.0% pre‑distributions), H1 capital generation 197bps (31bps from RWA management; investments -19bps; organic lending -61bps), total capital 18.9%, MREL 30.6%, AT1 2.5% (EUR5.1bn), Tier‑2 3.1% ($6.3bn), leverage spot 4.7% (avg 4.8% v min 4.3%; proposed reforms could lower the min ≈40bps). Liquidity and funding guidance: LCR 140%, NSFR 132%, primary liquidity £152bn, total liquidity £224.6bn, CAL £986.9bn (up £86.8bn q/q; CAL +13.4% incl. Evelyn), deposits ≈£448bn, loan‑to‑deposit 90%; issuance plans include the remaining ~£1.4bn of holdco senior (of a £3bn guide), ~£1bn covered bonds and potential prefunding, with an assumed Basel 3.1 RWA uplift of ~€10bn from 1 Jan 2027.NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 30.19B | 29.48B | 28.57B | 24.76B | 16.15B | 12.04B |
| Gross Profit | 17.56B | 16.61B | 14.65B | 14.78B | 13.35B | 10.34B |
| EBITDA | 9.33B | 8.86B | 7.25B | 7.11B | 5.96B | 4.77B |
| Net Income | 6.35B | 5.83B | 4.80B | 4.64B | 3.59B | 3.27B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 745.37B | 714.55B | 707.99B | 692.67B | 720.05B | 781.99B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 95.19B | 98.23B | 106.93B | 116.47B | 154.98B | 261.23B |
| Total Debt | 76.19B | 71.83B | 65.92B | 60.07B | 55.32B | 58.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 701.54B | 671.94B | 668.61B | 655.49B | 683.56B | 740.19B |
| Stockholders Equity | 43.76B | 42.60B | 39.35B | 37.16B | 36.49B | 41.80B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 5.79B | 694.00M | -18.99B | -44.24B | 52.79B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | 7.07B | 1.77B | -17.44B | -43.60B | 53.69B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -13.77B | -12.70B | -14.69B | 19.06B | 3.06B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -3.49B | -1.89B | -6.30B | -10.65B | -2.60B |
NatWest Group Technical Analysis
Positive
17.97
Price Trends
17.46
Positive
16.43
Positive
16.07
Positive
Market Momentum
0.47
Negative
64.20
Neutral
18.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.36, above the 50-day MA of 17.46, and above the 200-day MA of 16.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NWG.
NatWest Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $160.66B | 12.93 | 19.31% | 4.15% | -2.29% | 14.33% | |
72 Outperform | $76.11B | 7.45 | 16.16% | 4.87% | 6.60% | 29.61% | |
72 Outperform | $354.99B | 14.66 | 12.98% | 3.62% | -5.19% | 39.48% | |
71 Outperform | $99.59B | 13.43 | 13.38% | 4.46% | 12.60% | 24.01% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $94.81B | 10.71 | 10.11% | 1.61% | 12.33% | 22.63% | |
65 Neutral | $218.93B | 11.62 | 15.48% | 2.24% | 16.84% | 33.67% |
* Financial Sector Average
NWG
NatWest Group
19.10
4.98
35.22%
BBVA
Banco Bilbao
28.70
10.37
56.57%
BCS
Barclays
28.14
8.29
41.76%
HSBC
HSBC Holdings
103.79
42.66
69.80%
ING
ING Groep
35.70
12.04
50.86%
SAN
Banco Santander SA
14.76
5.35
56.90%
NatWest Group Corporate Events
NatWest Group CIO Scott Marcar Sells 251,868 Shares in June 2026
Jun 22, 2026
NatWest Group disclosed that on 19 June 2026 its Group Chief Information Officer, Scott Marcar, sold 251,868 ordinary shares in the bank at a price of £6.3449 per share. The transaction, which took place on the London Stock Exchange, was repo...
NatWest Group Issues $1.25 Billion Senior Callable Notes in U.S. Market
Jun 18, 2026
On June 18, 2026, NatWest Group filed a Form 6-K in the U.S. outlining new capital markets activity tied to its automatic shelf registration on Form F-3, reinforcing its access to dollar funding via senior debt. The filing details the framework un...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.