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NatWest Group (NWG)
NYSE:NWG
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NatWest Group (NWG) AI Stock Analysis

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NWG

NatWest Group

(NYSE:NWG)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$15.50
â–²(11.27% Upside)
NatWest Group's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The company's undervaluation and attractive dividend yield further enhance its investment appeal. However, short-term technical indicators suggest caution due to bearish trends.

NatWest Group (NWG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

NatWest Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNatWest Group (NWG) is a leading banking and financial services organization based in the United Kingdom. It operates primarily in the retail and commercial banking sectors, offering a wide range of core products and services, including personal banking, business banking, corporate banking, and wealth management. NWG serves millions of customers through its various brands, including NatWest, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Ulster Bank, providing services such as loans, mortgages, accounts, insurance, and investment solutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyNatWest Group generates revenue through several key streams, primarily from interest income and non-interest income. Interest income is earned from loans and advances to customers, including personal loans, mortgages, and business loans, where the bank charges interest on the borrowed amounts. Non-interest income is derived from fees and commissions from various banking services, such as account maintenance fees, transaction fees, investment management fees, and insurance premiums. The bank also benefits from treasury operations and foreign exchange services. Additionally, partnerships with fintech companies and other financial institutions enhance its service offerings and customer reach, contributing to its overall earnings.

NatWest Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Operating Profit by Segment
Operating Profit by Segment
Highlights the profitability of each business unit, indicating which segments are driving earnings and where there might be challenges or opportunities for growth.
Chart InsightsNatWest Group's Retail Banking and Commercial & Institutional segments have shown resilience, with consistent operating profit growth. Retail Banking remains a strong performer, while Commercial Banking has stagnated since mid-2022. The earnings call highlights a successful acquisition of Sainsbury's Bank, boosting customer accounts and lending, which could enhance future profitability. However, potential regulatory impacts and economic uncertainties pose risks. The bank's updated 2025 guidance reflects optimism, expecting income and returns at the upper end of their ranges, despite anticipated higher operating expenses.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

NatWest Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 25, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 24, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted a strong financial performance with significant income growth and a strategic exit from government ownership. The bank demonstrated robust customer growth and increased shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. However, there were challenges related to competitive deposit pressures and ongoing cost management. The sentiment is positive overall, as highlights outweigh the lowlights, with a focus on future growth and strategic initiatives.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Government Ownership Exit
NatWest Group is now privately owned for the first time in 17 years, attracting new investors and driving growth.
Strong Financial Performance
Income grew 13.7% to GBP 8 billion, costs reduced by 1.4% to GBP 3.9 billion, with operating profit at GBP 3.6 billion and attributable profit at GBP 2.5 billion.
Increased Dividend and Share Buyback
Announced an interim dividend of 9.5p, up 58%, and a new share buyback of GBP 750 million, bringing total distributions to GBP 1.5 billion.
Customer Growth and Expansion
Attracted over 100,000 new customers through organic growth and completed the Sainsbury's transaction, adding 1 million customers.
Mortgage and Lending Growth
Retail Banking lending grew by 3%, with a 4% increase in mortgage application share and a 2% growth in Commercial & Institutional lending.
Climate and Sustainable Finance
Announced a new target to deliver GBP 200 billion of climate and transition finance by 2030.
Technological Advancements
Strategic collaboration with AWS and Accenture to modernize data capabilities and enhance customer engagement.
Negative Updates
Deposit Challenges
Faced competitive pressures during the ISA season, with some loss of current accounts.
Continued Cost Management Efforts
Operating expenses are expected to be around GBP 8.1 billion, with further business transformation and integration costs anticipated.
Regulatory and Economic Uncertainty
Acknowledgement of potential impacts from prudential reviews and macroeconomic challenges, including rate cuts and regulatory changes.
Company Guidance
During the recent earnings call for NatWest Group, the company shared several key metrics highlighting strong financial performance in the first half of 2025. Customer lending increased by 3.2% to GBP 384 billion, while customer deposits rose by 1% to GBP 436 billion. Assets under management and administration grew by 5.9% to GBP 52 billion. The group's income surged by 13.7% to GBP 8 billion, and costs decreased by 1.4% to GBP 3.9 billion, resulting in an operating profit of GBP 3.6 billion and an attributable profit of GBP 2.5 billion. Return on tangible equity reached 18.1%, and earnings per share climbed 28% to 31p. The bank declared an interim dividend of 9.5p, up 58%, and TNAV per share grew by 16% to 351p, with a stable CET1 ratio of 13.6%. The company announced a GBP 750 million share buyback, bringing total shareholder distributions to around GBP 1.5 billion for the first half. NatWest also upgraded its 2025 guidance, expecting income to exceed GBP 16 billion and return on tangible equity to be above 16.5%.

NatWest Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NatWest Group maintains a healthy financial profile with strong equity and improving cash flow. Despite some volatility in profitability and cash flow management, the company's consistent revenue and equity growth provide a solid foundation for future operations.
Income Statement
75
Positive
NatWest Group's income statement reveals moderate financial health with a solid gross profit margin, but the net profit margin has shown fluctuations due to varying net income over the years. The revenue growth rate is relatively stable, indicating consistent business operations. However, the absence of recent EBIT and EBITDA data limits a comprehensive profitability assessment.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
The balance sheet demonstrates strong equity with a favorable equity ratio and zero total debt in the latest period, reducing financial risk. The return on equity is robust, indicating effective use of equity in generating profits. The consistent increase in stockholders' equity highlights a stable financial position, but the high total liabilities warrant attention.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis shows improvements, with positive free cash flow in the latest year after previous deficits, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests that cash earnings are catching up with accounting earnings, yet historical fluctuations in cash flows present potential volatility concerns.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.52B28.57B14.17B12.98B11.75B7.69B
Gross Profit15.20B14.65B14.17B12.98B11.75B10.80B
EBITDA7.73B7.25B7.12B6.00B4.77B361.00M
Net Income5.17B4.80B4.64B3.59B3.27B-372.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets710.03B707.99B692.67B720.05B781.99B799.49B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments99.05B93.05B104.52B145.06B177.76B124.49B
Total Debt68.91B65.92B38.16B39.93B40.20B9.96B
Total Liabilities668.42B668.61B655.49B683.56B740.19B755.67B
Stockholders Equity41.59B39.35B37.16B36.49B41.80B43.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00694.00M-14.92B-44.24B52.79B28.72B
Operating Cash Flow0.001.77B-13.37B-43.60B53.69B29.09B
Investing Cash Flow0.00-12.70B-14.69B19.06B3.06B7.55B
Financing Cash Flow0.00-1.89B-23.52B-10.65B-2.60B90.00M

NatWest Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price13.93
Price Trends
50DMA
14.18
Negative
100DMA
13.84
Positive
200DMA
12.33
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.08
Positive
RSI
42.28
Neutral
STOCH
18.04
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NWG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.20, below the 50-day MA of 14.18, and above the 200-day MA of 12.33, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.04 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NWG.

NatWest Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
241.11B13.9212.96%4.69%-2.96%-13.66%
78
Outperform
72.46B9.638.78%2.10%16.06%64.31%
75
Outperform
$55.67B8.9713.80%4.64%10.03%29.51%
75
Outperform
110.64B9.6318.07%4.06%7.86%17.13%
74
Outperform
152.48B10.6412.75%2.26%-14.74%17.03%
73
Outperform
77.05B11.8612.70%4.53%1.13%-1.14%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NWG
NatWest Group
13.90
4.95
55.31%
BBVA
Banco Bilbao
19.28
8.74
82.92%
BCS
Barclays
20.72
8.68
72.09%
HSBC
HSBC Holdings
69.89
26.54
61.22%
ING
ING Groep
25.75
8.23
46.97%
SAN
Banco Santander SA
10.29
5.26
104.57%

NatWest Group Corporate Events

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback on September 16, 2025
Sep 16, 2025

On September 16, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 702,602 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. These shares, acquired from Merrill Lynch International, will be canceled, reducing the total number of shares in circulation and potentially enhancing shareholder value.

NatWest Group Announces Managerial Share Acquisitions Following Dividend Reinvestment
Sep 16, 2025

On 12 September 2025, NatWest Group plc announced that several individuals holding managerial responsibilities within the company acquired ordinary shares through the reinvestment of dividends. This transaction, which took place on the London Stock Exchange, aligns with the company’s policy for shareholding by the Chairman and Non-executive Directors. This move reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning the interests of its leadership with those of its shareholders, potentially strengthening stakeholder confidence in the company’s governance practices.

NatWest CEO to Speak at Bank of America Financials Conference
Sep 16, 2025

On September 16, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced that its CEO, Paul Thwaite, will participate in a fireside chat at the Bank of America Financials Conference. This engagement reflects NatWest’s ongoing efforts to maintain a strong presence in the financial industry and engage with key stakeholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

NatWest Group Enhances Shareholder Value with Share Buyback
Sep 15, 2025

On September 15, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 70,161 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. These shares, acquired from Merrill Lynch International, are intended to be canceled, reducing the total number of shares in circulation. This transaction aligns with the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback on September 5, 2025
Sep 5, 2025

On September 5, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 2,341,343 of its own ordinary shares from Merrill Lynch International as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares, purchased at a volume-weighted average price of 508.91 GBp, are intended to be canceled, reducing the number of shares in circulation and potentially increasing shareholder value. This transaction reflects NatWest’s strategic efforts to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder returns.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback on September 4, 2025
Sep 4, 2025

On September 4, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 1,371,700 of its own ordinary shares from Merrill Lynch International as part of an ongoing share buyback program. This transaction, executed on the London Stock Exchange, is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure by reducing the number of shares in circulation, which could potentially enhance shareholder value.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback on August 8, 2025
Aug 8, 2025

On August 8, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the purchase of 1,931,618 of its own ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares were bought from Merrill Lynch International at prices ranging from 514.60 GBp to 521.60 GBp, with a volume-weighted average price of 518.64 GBp. This transaction follows instructions issued by the company on July 25, 2025, and announced on July 28, 2025. The repurchased shares are intended to be canceled, which will affect the company’s share capital structure by increasing the number of shares held in treasury to 231,259,394.

NatWest Group Announces Share Transactions for PDMRs
Aug 8, 2025

On August 7, 2025, NatWest Group plc delivered ordinary shares to its Persons Discharging Managerial Responsibility (PDMRs) as part of the 2024 Employee Share Plan. These shares, calculated at a price of £5.2384, represent a fixed share allowance for the quarter ending September 30, 2025. The transactions, which took place on the London Stock Exchange, involve shares being withheld to meet tax liabilities and retained shares to be released over five years. Additionally, on August 8, 2025, Scott Marcar, the Group Chief Information Officer, sold 7,759 shares at £5.1634.

NatWest Group Executes Share Buyback to Enhance Shareholder Value
Aug 7, 2025

On August 7, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the repurchase of 1,998,800 ordinary shares as part of its ongoing share buyback program. The shares were acquired from Merrill Lynch International at a volume-weighted average price of 514.74 GBp per share. This transaction, initiated on July 25, 2025, and announced on July 28, 2025, is part of NatWest’s strategy to manage its capital structure effectively. The repurchased shares will be canceled, resulting in NatWest holding 231,259,394 shares in treasury and having 8,089,472,510 shares in issue. This move is expected to optimize shareholder value and reflects the company’s confidence in its financial health.

NatWest Executives Sell Shares Amid Compliance Measures
Jun 20, 2025

On June 19, 2025, NatWest Group plc announced the sale of ordinary shares by two of its senior executives, Jen Tippin, Group Chief Operating Officer, and Angela Byrne, Interim CEO of Retail Banking. The transactions, conducted on the London Stock Exchange, involved the sale of 63,799 shares by Tippin at £5.1501 each and 26,600 shares by Byrne at £5.1200 each. These transactions are part of the company’s regulatory compliance with the Market Abuse Regulation, reflecting transparency in managerial dealings. This announcement may impact stakeholder perceptions of the company’s internal management and shareholding patterns.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 20, 2025