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Barclays Plc (BCS)
NYSE:BCS
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Barclays
(NYSE:BCS)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$27.00
â–²(20.64% Upside)
The score is most constrained by financial risk factors—volatile cash flow and a recent leverage spike—despite solid profitability. The latest earnings call supports the outlook via upgraded 2026 guidance, improving RoTE/cost efficiency targets, and meaningful planned distributions, while technicals show a near-term pullback and valuation appears reasonable.
Positive Factors
Predictable NII via structural hedges
Material structural hedge income and an extended hedge duration create a more predictable net interest income profile across rate cycles. That reduces short‑term sensitivity to market rate moves, underpins 2026 NII guidance and supports durable RoTE improvement and planning visibility.
Capital strength and shareholder returns
A CET1 ratio at the top of management's target range together with explicit multi‑year distribution guidance shows the bank retains regulatory cushion while returning capital. This supports confidence in funding stability, access to markets, and sustained shareholder distributions over the medium term.
Clear cost-efficiency program
A quantified efficiency program that has already delivered meaningful savings provides a credible path to lower cost/income and higher margins. Sustained execution of these efficiencies should structurally improve profitability and RoTE by 2026–28, enhancing long‑term operational scalability.
Negative Factors
Leverage spike in 2025
A sharp increase in leverage materially raises financial and regulatory risk, reducing strategic flexibility. Higher debt levels increase sensitivity to funding stress, constrain capital allocation choices and could necessitate higher capital buffers or slower buybacks if the leverage persists into 2026.
Volatile cash generation
Inconsistent operating and free cash flow undermines the bank's ability to self‑fund investment, capital returns and buffers. Persistent cash conversion volatility increases reliance on wholesale funding and makes sustaining dividends, buybacks or large investments more uncertain over the medium term.
US Consumer Bank impairment pressures
Elevated loan‑loss provisioning tied to USCB portfolio migration is a structural headwind to that division's returns. Higher through‑the‑cycle loss rates compress RoTE, raise capital needs and could persist into 2026–27, reducing the durability of group earnings from acquired portfolios.
Barclays (BCS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$90.09B
Dividend Yield1.71%
Average Volume (3M)5.77M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)1.23
Revenue Growth17.50%
EPS Growth49.25%
CountryUS
Employees93,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.47
Shares Outstanding3,452,171,000
10 Day Avg. Volume7,586,565
30 Day Avg. Volume5,765,095
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.42
Price to Book (P/B)0.86
Price to Sales (P/S)2.48
P/FCF Ratio-8.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.98
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.98
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.69
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Barclays Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBarclays PLC provides various financial services in the United Kingdom, Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The company operates through Barclays UK; Barclays UK Corporate Bank; Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management; Barclays Investment Bank; and Barclays US Consumer Bank segments. It offers financial services, such as retail banking, credit cards, wholesale banking, investment banking, wealth management, and investment management services, as well as lending products. In addition, the company engages in securities dealing activities and issuing of credit cards. The company was formerly known as Barclays Bank public limited company and changed its name to Barclays PLC in January 1985. Barclays PLC was founded in 1690 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
How the Company Makes MoneyBarclays generates revenue through various channels, predominantly from interest income, fees, and commissions. The Personal Banking division earns money from interest on loans and mortgages, as well as service fees for accounts and credit cards. The Corporate Banking segment contributes significantly through lending services, investment banking fees, and advisory services for mergers and acquisitions. Additionally, Barclays' investment management services provide asset management fees. The bank also benefits from trading and investment activities in its Investment Bank division, which includes market-making and underwriting services. Strategic partnerships, such as collaborations with fintech companies, enhance their service offerings and customer base, further driving revenue growth.
Barclays Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a broadly positive outlook: Barclays met or beat its 2025 targets, upgraded 2026 income guidance, improved profitability and efficiency metrics, strengthened capital and liquidity positions, and laid out an ambitious but disciplined 2026–28 plan focused on targeted investment (technology/AI), growth in higher-return U.K. businesses, and sustained shareholder distributions. Material near-term headwinds remain — notably a higher 2025 cost base (including one-offs and Tesco integration), elevated impairment expectations in the U.S. Consumer Bank in 2026 (post-acquisitions), mortgage book product-margin pressure in H1 2026, and regulatory RWA/capital timing uncertainty — but management framed these as known, manageable, and largely temporary, with clear mitigation and a path to improving cost/income and RoTE by 2028.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
All 2025 Targets Achieved; Upgraded 2026 Income Guidance
Barclays achieved all financial targets for FY2025 and upgraded 2026 income guidance to circa GBP 31.0 billion (from circa GBP 30.0 billion); top-line grew 9% y/y to GBP 29.1bn.
Improved Profitability Metrics
Return on tangible equity increased to 11.3% (from 10.5% a year earlier). Profit before tax increased 13% y/y to GBP 9.1bn and EPS rose 22% y/y to 43.8p.
Strong Net Interest Income and Structural Hedge Performance
Group NII rose 13% y/y to GBP 12.8bn; structural hedge income increased by GBP 1.2bn to GBP 5.9bn and contributed c.46% of group NII (ex-IB & head office). Hedge duration extended to ~3.5 years, underpinning predictable NII.
Cost Efficiency Progress
Delivered GBP 700m of gross efficiency savings in 2025 (vs GBP 500m target), with GBP 1.7bn cumulative toward a GBP 2.0bn target by 2026; group cost/income ratio improved to 61%.
Improved Division-Level Returns
All divisions generated double-digit RoTE in 2025: Investment Bank RoTE rose 2.1ppt to 10.6%, U.S. Consumer Bank RoTE rose 1.9ppt to 11% (FY) and Barclays U.K. RoTE 20.7% for the year (Q4 RoTE 23.8%).
Capital Strength and Shareholder Distributions
Ended year at top of CET1 13%-14% range (CET1 14.3% at quarter end); announced GBP 3.7bn of 2025 shareholder distributions (GBP 1.2bn dividends, GBP 2.5bn buybacks including a GBP 1bn tranche) and signalled >GBP 15bn of distributions across 2026–28.
Retail & Corporate Growth Momentum in the U.K.
Delivered GBP 20bn of the GBP 30bn RWA growth target (including GBP 7bn in 2025); 6 consecutive quarters of mortgage growth and 5 consecutive quarters of organic loan growth in the U.K. Corporate Bank; U.K. Corporate Bank lending +18% y/y and market share +100bps to 9.6%.
Strong Markets and Financing Performance
Market segments grew: financing income +20% y/y, FICC +14%, equities +21%; intermediation revenues +13% y/y; prime balances up ~30% y/y and Markets income grew year-on-year for 7 consecutive quarters.
Operational and Strategic Investments (Technology & AI)
Accelerating investment in cloud, data platforms and AI (89% apps on cloud); >250 AI tools/models in use; GitLab rollout improved code deployment speed by ~15% and Microsoft Copilot reportedly saved >1 million work hours in 2025; employee share grant (~GBP 500 worth of shares) for most colleagues.
Robust Liquidity and Capital Metrics
Liquidity and funding metrics strong: loan-to-deposit ratio 73%, NSFR 135%, LCR 170%; TNAV per share increased 52p y/y to 409p.
Negative Updates
Higher 2025 Cost Base and One-Off Charges
Total costs rose by GBP 1.0bn to GBP 17.7bn in 2025 (nearly half due to Tesco Bank addition). The year included a GBP 235m Q3 finance provision and ~GBP 50m of one-off Q4 costs (including VAT in Barclays U.K.), temporarily inflating the cost base.
U.S. Consumer Bank Impairment Headwinds in 2026
Through-the-cycle loan loss rate for USCB increased to ~500bps (from ~400bps previously), with guidance of c.550bps in 2026 driven by post-acquisition stage migration of the General Motors portfolio and retention of some non-performing American Airlines balances (expected to diminish in 2027).
Mortgage Product Margin Pressure in H1 2026
Expected circa GBP 100m product margin headwind in mortgage book in H1 2026 as higher-margin mortgages (written during the 2020–21 stamp duty holiday) mature; deposit margin compression is also expected to persist (weighted to H1).
Regulatory RWA Inflation & Capital Uncertainty
Group expects GBP 19bn–26bn of regulatory RWA inflation (c. GBP 16bn from IRB migration in USCB). Timing/quantum of Pillar 2A changes and Basel 3.1 implementation create planning uncertainty; management will operate toward the top of the 13%–14% CET1 range until clarity.
Investment Bank Near-Term Volatility and Work to Do on Fees
Q4 IB RoTE seasonally low at 4% and banking fees were broadly stable; ECM was impacted by the U.S. government shutdown (IPOs delayed into H1 2026). Management acknowledges further work required to rebuild fee share, particularly in ECM/M&A.
Elevated 2026 Cost/Inertia Before Efficiency Gains
Group expects a high-50s cost/income ratio in 2026 (worse than 2025's 61% guidance improvement path) before moving to low-50s by 2028; Tesco Bank dual-running added ~GBP 400m to 2025 costs (including GBP 100m integration costs).
Private Bank Q4 Impact and Litigation Charge
Private Bank Q4 RoTE fell to 12.6% due to higher costs from accelerated investments and a historic litigation charge (though FY RoTE remained 26.3%).
Short-Term Impairment Seasonality and Q1 Trends
Q4 impairment rose GBP 52m q/q reflecting higher balances; management cautioned Q1 loan loss rates typically elevate after holiday-related Q4 spending, implying near-term seasonal volatility.
Company Guidance
Management guided that after delivering FY25 results (RoTE 11.3%; income up 9% to £29.1bn; NII £12.8bn, +13% y/y; PBT £9.1bn; EPS 43.8p; cost base £17.7bn; cost/income 61%; impairment £2.3bn, loan‑loss rate 52bps; TNAV 409p) Barclays expects c.£31bn group income in 2026 (up from c.£30bn previously) and group NII of at least c.£13.5bn, with structural hedge income locked at c.£6.4bn in 2026 and c.£17bn over three years (average reinvestment rate ~3.5%; maturing‑hedge yields c.1.5%/2.1%/2.7% in ’26/’27/’28); targets include RoTE >12% in 2026 and >14% in 2028, a group cost/income falling from the mid‑60s/61% area in 2025 to high‑50s in 2026 and low‑50s by 2028 underpinned by c.£2bn gross efficiencies to 2028 (£700m delivered in 2025; £1.7bn cumulative), planned >£15bn of shareholder distributions (including £3.7bn for 2025: £1.2bn dividend, £2.5bn buybacks), CET1 run at top of 13–14% range (14.3% end‑Q4), RWA inflation of £19–26bn expected (including ~£16bn IRB migration in US Consumer Bank), and divisional targets such as Barclays UK NII £7.7bn in 2025 rising to £8.1–8.3bn in 2026 (c.£550m hedge benefit) and RoTEs: IB ~12% in 2026 (>13% by 2028), US Consumer Bank mid‑teens over time (USCB through‑the‑cycle LLP ~500bps, c.550bps in 2026), and continued deployment of £20bn of the £30bn targeted UK RWA growth (including £7bn in 2025) with sustained lending momentum.Barclays Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Recurring profitability is a positive (income statement score 68), but overall financial strength is capped by rising leverage (balance sheet score 55, with a notable 2025 debt-to-equity jump) and highly volatile cash generation (cash flow score 42 with negative operating/free cash flow in multiple years), reducing confidence in consistency and flexibility.Income Statement
Profitability is solid for the period, with net income consistently positive from 2020–2025 and generally healthy profit rates (roughly low-teens to high-20s in most years). However, growth and revenue stability are uneven: revenue swings significantly year to year (including a sharp drop in 2025 and declines in 2020/2021), which increases uncertainty around the earnings trajectory despite strong reported operating profitability in some years.68
Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows meaningful leverage, with debt-to-equity running ~2.2–2.7 from 2020–2024 and spiking to ~5.6 in 2025, which elevates financial risk and reduces flexibility. Offsetting this, shareholder returns are respectable and fairly steady (return on equity generally mid-to-high single digits, reaching ~10% in 2021), and total assets trend upward over time—though the 2025 leverage step-up is a clear negative.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation is volatile: operating cash flow is strongly positive in 2020–2022, turns negative in 2023, recovers in 2024, and becomes meaningfully negative again in 2025—dragging free cash flow negative in multiple years as well. While free cash flow is strong in some periods (notably 2020–2022 and positive again in 2024), the inconsistency versus reported earnings raises questions about cash conversion and the durability of internal funding capacity.42
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 26.82B | 51.62B | 23.50B | 23.74B | 22.59B |
| Gross Profit | 29.14B | 26.23B | 25.38B | 24.96B | 21.94B |
| EBITDA | 10.89B | 9.81B | 8.34B | 8.73B | 9.87B |
| Net Income | 7.17B | 6.31B | 5.26B | 5.93B | 7.01B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.54T | 1.52T | 1.48T | 1.51T | 1.38T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 407.56B | 509.67B | 538.31B | 542.42B | 521.33B |
| Total Debt | 170.76B | 185.75B | 176.55B | 183.37B | 166.59B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.47T | 1.45T | 1.41T | 1.44T | 1.31T |
| Stockholders Equity | 77.78B | 71.82B | 71.20B | 68.29B | 69.05B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -8.07B | 5.54B | -2.65B | 28.48B | 47.20B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -6.21B | 7.11B | -927.00M | 30.23B | 48.92B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 1.59B | -17.89B | -23.41B | -21.67B | 4.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 27.21B | 784.00M | -1.39B | 696.00M | 107.00M |
Barclays Technical Analysis
Neutral
22.38
Price Trends
25.70
Positive
23.45
Positive
21.12
Positive
Market Momentum
0.07
Positive
48.95
Neutral
68.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BCS, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.38, below the 50-day MA of 25.70, and above the 200-day MA of 21.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.95 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BCS.
Barclays Risk Analysis
Barclays disclosed 18 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Barclays reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Barclays Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $299.62B | 18.60 | 8.66% | 4.14% | -9.54% | -22.46% | |
72 Outperform | $184.95B | 12.20 | 13.08% | 1.85% | -15.34% | 16.71% | |
71 Outperform | $82.64B | 12.27 | 12.79% | 4.14% | 2.20% | -0.17% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $208.04B | 16.63 | 6.72% | 1.94% | -0.62% | 105.57% | |
60 Neutral | $90.09B | 11.45 | 10.00% | 1.71% | 17.50% | 49.25% | |
58 Neutral | $67.48B | 9.57 | 15.42% | 3.67% | 7.43% | 30.31% |
* Financial Sector Average
BCS
Barclays
25.91
11.12
75.14%
C
Citigroup
115.55
37.92
48.85%
HSBC
HSBC Holdings
86.84
33.70
63.41%
ING
ING Groep
29.03
12.84
79.25%
NWG
NatWest Group
16.83
5.99
55.26%
SAN
Banco Santander SA
12.37
6.47
109.66%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.