Citigroup (C) AI Stock Analysis

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Citigroup

(NYSE:C)

Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:―

Citigroup's overall stock score reflects a balanced view of its financial health and market potential. Strengths include robust revenue growth and strategic leadership changes, while challenges in cash flow and macroeconomic uncertainties weigh on the outlook. The stock's fair valuation and dividend yield provide a stable investment opportunity, though technical indicators suggest cautious optimism.

Positive Factors

Regulatory Environment

The bank is seen as benefiting from a more balanced regulatory backdrop, potentially allowing for accelerated share buybacks and improved capital flexibility.

Share Buybacks

Share buybacks are accelerating, with buybacks in the first quarter exceeding management's guidance.

Trading Business Stability

Citi is one of the global leaders in F/X trading which is the key driver among its trading businesses and remains very stable in this environment.

Negative Factors

Credit Card Risk

Investors perceive credit risk tied to Citigroup's credit card book and concerns about below-average PPNR defensibility.

Retail Services Growth

Citi's loan growth moderated in both branded and retail services, with retail services growth going negative year over year.

Services Revenue Slowdown

Services saw a slowdown in yoy revenue growth and decline qoq with Securities Services weaker.

Citigroup (C) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$137.13B

Dividend Yield3.01%

Average Volume (3M)14.16M

Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6

Beta (1Y)1.37

Revenue Growth2.97%

EPS Growth87.82%

CountryUS

Employees229,000

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength81

IndustryBanks - Diversified

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.96

Shares Outstanding1,867,733,600

10 Day Avg. Volume12,927,695

30 Day Avg. Volume14,160,244

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio1.41

Price to Book (P/B)0.63

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-5.10

Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.43

Enterprise Value/Revenue2.78

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.29

Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.07

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$88.00

Price Target Upside19.86% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering14

Citigroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCitigroup Inc. is a leading global financial services company, providing a wide array of financial products and services to consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions. The company operates through two primary segments: Global Consumer Banking (GCB) and Institutional Clients Group (ICG). Citigroup offers comprehensive banking services, including retail banking, credit cards, investment banking, securities brokerage, wealth management, and transaction services.

How the Company Makes MoneyCitigroup generates revenue through a diverse range of financial services and products offered under its Global Consumer Banking and Institutional Clients Group segments. In the GCB segment, the company earns income from retail banking services such as deposits, loans, and mortgages, as well as credit card services where it charges interest and fees. The ICG segment generates revenue from investment banking activities, including advisory and underwriting services, trading and securities services, and lending to institutional clients. Additionally, Citigroup earns fees from asset management and private banking services. The company's global presence and extensive client network are significant factors contributing to its revenue generation capabilities. Citigroup's strategic partnerships and digital banking initiatives also play a crucial role in enhancing its service offerings and expanding its customer base.

Citigroup Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Institutional Revenue Breakdown

Institutional Revenue Breakdown
Details revenue from institutional clients, highlighting Citigroup's performance in investment banking, trading, and other financial services for large organizations.

Chart InsightsCitigroup's Institutional Revenue shows robust growth in Treasury and Trade Solutions, with a notable surge in Securities Services in 2024. Fixed Income Markets remain volatile, while Equity Markets and Investment Banking are recovering, aligning with a 23% increase in equities revenue reported in the earnings call. Despite challenges in non-interest revenue, the bank's strategic focus on transformation and AI investments, coupled with strong capital returns, provides a positive outlook amidst macroeconomic uncertainties.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Citigroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Citigroup exhibits a mixed financial performance. The income statement suggests operational efficiency with room for profitability improvement. The balance sheet indicates stability and a solid equity base but is burdened by high leverage. Cash flow metrics highlight volatility and challenges in sustaining positive free cash flow. Overall, Citigroup must focus on enhancing profitability and cash flow management to strengthen its financial position.

Income Statement

Positive

Citigroup's income statement reveals a moderate financial performance. The gross profit margin is robust due to a strong revenue base. However, the net profit margin is relatively low, indicating controlled profitability. The revenue growth rate has been inconsistent over the years, with a recent decline. EBIT and EBITDA margins suggest operational efficiency but highlight the need for improved earnings growth.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Citigroup is relatively strong, with a solid equity position. The debt-to-equity ratio is high, typical for banks, indicating significant leverage. The return on equity reflects moderate profitability for equity holders, while the equity ratio suggests a stable financial structure. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates financial strength but carries potential risks from high debt levels.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Citigroup's cash flow statement shows a mixed picture. Operating cash flow is volatile, reflecting fluctuating net income and operational activities. Free cash flow has been negative in recent years, impacting the cash flow to net income ratios. The free cash flow growth rate indicates challenges in maintaining positive cash flow, which could affect long-term liquidity.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
71.36B	78.49B	75.31B	71.89B	75.49B
	Gross Profit
71.36B	78.49B	75.31B	71.89B	75.49B
	EBIT
30.23B	22.81B	18.81B	27.47B	13.63B
	EBITDA
17.74B	27.37B	23.07B	31.43B	0.00
	Net Income Common Stockholders
12.68B	9.23B	14.85B	21.95B	11.05B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
22.78B	241.91B	325.05B	248.61B	282.24B
	Total Assets
2.35T	2.41T	2.42T	2.29T	2.26T
	Total Debt
335.81B	324.08B	318.70B	282.35B	301.20B
	Net Debt
264.52B	63.14B	-6.35B	33.74B	18.96B
	Total Liabilities
2.14T	2.21T	2.21T	2.09T	2.06T
	Stockholders Equity
208.60B	205.45B	201.19B	201.97B	199.76B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-26.17B	-80.00B	19.44B	57.13B	-24.07B
	Operating Cash Flow
-19.67B	-73.42B	25.07B	61.25B	-20.62B
	Investing Cash Flow
86.25B	-8.46B	-79.45B	-124.91B	-95.31B
	Financing Cash Flow
-38.30B	687.00M	137.76B	17.27B	233.59B

Citigroup Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price73.42

Price Trends

50DMA

68.77

Positive

100DMA

72.53

Positive

200DMA

67.94

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.89

Positive

RSI

56.18

Neutral

STOCH

29.37

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For C, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 73.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 72.20, above the 50-day MA of 68.77, and above the 200-day MA of 67.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for C.

Citigroup Risk Analysis

Citigroup disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Citigroup reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks

Sustainable Operations Q4, 2024

Managing Global Risk Q4, 2024

Citigroup Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JPM	82 Outperform	$738.35B	13.04	17.25%	1.93%	12.48%	23.05%
HSBC	80 Outperform	$210.30B	11.08	10.83%	5.53%	-1.91%	-6.79%
WFC	78 Outperform	$238.82B	13.19	11.05%	2.12%	3.51%	16.51%
BAC	73 Outperform	$326.21B	12.93	9.46%	2.36%	8.23%	16.15%
MUFG	65 Neutral	$152.98B	13.01	9.18%	1.73%	13.21%	-12.06%
C	64 Neutral	$137.13B	11.60	6.30%	3.01%	2.97%	87.82%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.66B	9.79	7.67%	17015.07%	12.23%	-6.06%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

Citigroup

73.09

11.59

18.85%

BAC

Bank of America

43.20

4.46

11.51%

HSBC

HSBC Holdings

59.24

17.51

41.96%

JPM

JPMorgan Chase

260.71

64.55

32.91%

MUFG

Mitsubishi UFJ

13.54

3.77

38.59%

WFC

Wells Fargo

72.83

14.03

23.86%

Citigroup Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 15, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 17.06%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 15, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a strong quarter with significant growth in net income and revenues across various segments, particularly in wealth management and markets. However, challenges in non-interest revenue and a decline in retail services highlight areas of concern. Overall, the firm's strategic initiatives and strong capital returns provide a positive outlook despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Net Income and Revenue Growth

Reported net income of $4.1 billion and earnings per share of $1.96 with an ROTCE of 9.1%. Total revenues were up 3%, driven by growth in each of the businesses.

Positive Operating Leverage Across All Segments

Citi delivered its third consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage for each of its five lines of business and the fourth consecutive quarter for the firm overall.

Record Performance in Wealth Management

Wealth revenues were up 24%, with growth across Citi Gold, the private bank, and Wealth at Work. The segment delivered record revenue this quarter with improved efficiency and returns.

Strong Performance in Markets

Markets revenues were up 12%, with equities revenues increasing by 23% and fixed income revenues by 8%. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage in markets.

Increased Capital Return to Shareholders

Returned $2.8 billion in capital to shareholders, including $1.75 billion of buybacks, which is the highest quarterly amount since 2022.

Negative Updates

Challenges in Non-Interest Revenue

Non-interest revenues excluding markets were down 6% as better results in banking and wealth were more than offset by declines in all other segments, USPB, and services.

Retail Services Revenue Decline

Retail services revenues declined by 11%, primarily driven by higher partner payment accruals.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Credit Concerns

The firm faced a cost of credit of $2.7 billion, primarily consisting of net credit losses and a firm-wide net ACL build reflecting uncertainty and deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of 2025, Citi reported a net income of $4.1 billion, translating to earnings per share of $1.96 and a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of 9.1%. The bank achieved a 5% year-over-year decline in expenses and delivered positive operating leverage across its five business lines for the third consecutive quarter, and for the firm overall, for the fourth quarter. Revenues increased by 3% to $21.6 billion, driven by growth in each business segment. The services segment recorded its highest first-quarter revenue in a decade, while markets revenue rose 12%, with a notable 23% increase in equities. The banking division experienced a 12% revenue increase, partly due to M&A revenue nearly doubling. Wealth management revenues grew by 24%, driven by an 11% organic growth in client investments. US Personal Banking (USPB) saw a 2% uptick, supported by increased loan balances in branded cards. Citi returned $2.8 billion in capital to shareholders, including $1.75 billion in buybacks, and ended the quarter with a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13.4% and a tangible book value per share of $90. The bank remains focused on transformation investments and leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance client experience.

Citigroup Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Citigroup Stockholders Approve Key Amendments at Annual Meeting

Neutral

May 1, 2025

On April 29, 2025, Citigroup Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where several key decisions were made. The stockholders approved an amendment to the Citigroup 2019 Stock Incentive Plan, increasing the authorized shares by 30 million. Additionally, 12 directors were elected, KPMG LLP was ratified as the independent accounting firm for 2025, and the 2024 Executive Compensation was approved. However, several stockholder proposals, including those on golden parachutes, Indigenous Peoples’ rights, climate change, and animal welfare, were not approved.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.