JPMorgan Chase (JPM) AI Stock Analysis

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JPMorgan Chase

(NYSE:JPM)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

$332.00

▲(14.52%Upside)

JPMorgan Chase's strong financial performance and positive technical indicators contribute significantly to its score. Valuation metrics and earnings call sentiment present moderate concerns. The overall outlook remains positive with some caution advised regarding leverage and cash flow management.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

JPMorgan Chase's core earnings per share exceeded expectations, driven by a stronger-than-expected performance in capital markets.

Net Interest Income

Continued growth across loans and deposits is expected to support stronger net interest income.

Valuation and Market Positioning

The stock valuation is at a 35% P/E discount to S&P and barely a premium to banking peers, highlighting its dominant market positioning and revenue diversity.

Negative Factors

Investment Narrative Risk

There is a potential risk of a negative investment narrative that over-estimates the risks for the banks while underestimating the opportunities.

Market Reaction

A relatively mild market reaction to a strong performance report highlights concerns about the stock's valuation.

Valuation Concerns

Valuation feels rich with the company trading at a high price compared to its tangible book value and implied cost of equity.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$796.35B

Dividend Yield1.96%

Average Volume (3M)8.61M

Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7

Beta (1Y)1.15

Revenue Growth4.04%

EPS Growth8.73%

CountryUS

Employees318,477

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength75

IndustryBanks - Diversified

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)5.24

Shares Outstanding2,779,094,500

10 Day Avg. Volume8,764,530

30 Day Avg. Volume8,611,372

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-3.32

Price to Book (P/B)2.27

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-5.77

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.82

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.42

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.69

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$304.94

Price Target Upside5.19% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering19

JPMorgan Chase Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJPMorgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm headquartered in New York City, serving millions of customers in over 100 countries. The company operates through various segments, including Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, and Asset & Wealth Management. Its core products and services encompass a wide range of financial solutions, such as banking, investment banking, financial services for consumers and businesses, financial transaction processing, asset management, and private equity.

How the Company Makes MoneyJPMorgan Chase generates revenue through multiple streams across its diversified financial services. The Consumer & Community Banking segment earns from retail banking services, credit card services, and home lending. The Corporate & Investment Bank segment derives income from advisory fees, underwriting, and trading of securities and derivatives, as well as prime brokerage services. Commercial Banking provides revenue through lending, treasury services, and investment banking. Asset & Wealth Management generates fees from managing various investment products and advising high-net-worth individuals and institutions. Strategic partnerships, global reach, and technological investments further bolster its earnings by enhancing service delivery and operational efficiency.

JPMorgan Chase Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Assets Under Management

Assets Under Management
Reflects the total market value of assets managed on behalf of clients, indicating the scale and influence of the firm's investment management operations.

Chart InsightsJPMorgan Chase's Assets Under Management have shown a robust upward trajectory, reaching over $4 trillion by early 2025. This growth is underpinned by strong performance in the Asset & Wealth Management segment, which reported a 12% increase in revenue, driven by management fees and net inflows. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties and increased credit costs, the firm's strategic focus on asset growth and market positioning has bolstered its financial stability and investor confidence, as evidenced by significant capital distribution to shareholders.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

JPMorgan Chase Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 15, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: 0.42%|

Next Earnings Date:Oct 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

JPMorgan Chase's earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there were significant achievements in net income and growth in commercial banking and asset management, the decline in overall revenue, increased expenses, and challenges in home lending and credit costs presented notable challenges.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Net Income and EPS

JPMorgan Chase reported a net income of $15 billion and an EPS of $5.24, reflecting solid financial performance for the quarter.

Commercial and Investment Banking Growth

CIB reported net income of $6.7 billion on revenue of $19.5 billion, which was up 9% year on year. Investment banking fees increased by 7%, and advisory fees rose 8%.

Asset and Wealth Management Success

AWM reported net income of $1.5 billion with pre-tax margin of 34%, and revenue of $5.8 billion was up 10% year on year. Long-term net inflows were $31 billion for the quarter.

Strong Consumer and Business Deposits

Average client deposits were up 16% year on year and up 5% sequentially, reflecting increased activity across payments and security services.

Card and Auto Revenue Increase

Revenue from card services and auto was up 15% year on year, driven by higher card NII and revolving balances.

Negative Updates

Revenue Decline

The firm reported a revenue of $45.7 billion, down $5.3 billion or 10% year on year, driven by declines in certain market segments.

CET1 Ratio Decline

CET1 ratio ended the quarter at 15%, down 40 basis points versus the prior quarter due to capital distributions and higher RWA.

Home Lending Revenue Decline

Home lending revenue was down 5% year on year, predominantly driven by lower NII.

Increased Expenses

Expenses of $23.8 billion were up $66 million from the previous year, driven by compensation and higher brokerage and distribution fees.

Credit Costs and Net Reserve Build

Credit costs were $2.8 billion with net charge-offs of $2.4 billion and a net reserve build of $439 million.

Company Guidance

During JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s second quarter 2025 earnings call, CFO Jeremy Barnum reported a net income of $15 billion with an EPS of $5.24 on revenue of $45.7 billion, achieving a return on tangible common equity (ROGCE) of 21%. The firm experienced a 10% year-on-year decrease in revenue primarily due to lower rates and deposit margin compression. Expenses rose by 5% to $23.8 billion, driven by compensation and higher auto lease depreciation. Credit costs totaled $2.8 billion, including net charge-offs of $2.4 billion. The CET1 ratio fell by 40 basis points to 15% due to capital distributions and increased RWA. JPMorgan revised its net interest income (NII) guidance to $95.5 billion, with adjusted expenses expected at $95.5 billion. The firm maintained a cautious outlook amid an uncertain environment but highlighted optimism in areas like investment banking and card services.

JPMorgan Chase Financial Statement Overview

Summary

JPMorgan Chase exhibits strong revenue and profit growth with healthy margins. However, high leverage and negative cash flows present financial risks that need attention despite strong equity and returns.

Income Statement

Very Positive

JPMorgan Chase has shown strong revenue growth with a significant increase in total revenue from $153.8B in 2022 to $273.4B in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) 2025. Gross profit margins remain healthy at 58.8% for TTM 2025, indicating effective cost control. Net profit margin also showcases robust performance at 21.8% for TTM 2025. The firm's EBIT and EBITDA margins indicate strong operational profitability. Overall, the income statement reflects strong growth and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at 2.86 in TTM 2025, indicating a higher leverage which could pose risks. However, the equity ratio is stable at 8.1%, reflecting a solid capital structure. Return on equity is impressive at 17.0% for TTM 2025, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. The balance sheet shows strength in equity but highlights potential risks with high leverage.

Cash Flow

Positive

The operating cash flow has turned negative to -$139.7B in TTM 2025, raising concerns about cash generation from operations. Free cash flow is also negative, indicating challenges in liquidity management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, suggesting issues in converting profits to cash. Cash flow management needs improvement, although financing activities are robust.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	270.79B	236.27B	153.82B	127.24B	129.84B
Gross Profit	158.78B	145.67B	121.39B	130.91B	102.47B
EBITDA	83.02B	69.12B	53.22B	67.49B	44.43B
Net Income	58.47B	49.55B	37.68B	48.33B	29.13B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.00T	3.88T	3.67T	3.74T	3.38T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	866.01B	816.64B	763.93B	1.03T	883.56B
Total Debt	751.15B	653.07B	542.50B	548.94B	542.10B
Total Liabilities	3.66T	3.55T	3.37T	3.45T	3.11T
Stockholders Equity	344.76B	327.88B	292.33B	294.13B	279.35B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-42.01B	12.97B	107.12B	78.08B	-79.91B
Operating Cash Flow	-42.01B	12.97B	107.12B	78.08B	-79.91B
Investing Cash Flow	-163.40B	67.64B	-137.82B	-129.34B	-261.91B
Financing Cash Flow	63.45B	-25.57B	-126.26B	275.99B	596.64B

JPMorgan Chase Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price289.90

Price Trends

50DMA

272.22

Positive

100DMA

255.39

Positive

200DMA

247.45

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

5.27

Positive

RSI

63.97

Neutral

STOCH

61.71

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 289.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 286.28, above the 50-day MA of 272.22, and above the 200-day MA of 247.45, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.27 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JPM.

JPMorgan Chase Risk Analysis

JPMorgan Chase disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JPMorgan Chase reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JPMorgan Chase Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HSBC	80 Outperform	$215.22B	11.68	10.83%	3.16%	-1.91%	-6.79%
WFC	78 Outperform	$260.04B	13.66	11.51%	2.00%	0.22%	19.89%
MUFG	76 Outperform	$150.06B	12.79	9.18%	2.01%	5.39%	20.82%
JPM	74 Outperform	$796.35B	14.70	16.13%	1.96%	4.04%	8.73%
C	73 Outperform	$168.13B	13.76	6.64%	2.49%	0.52%	89.25%
BAC	73 Outperform	$347.60B	13.52	9.46%	2.26%	3.21%	20.49%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$16.73B	11.75	9.79%	3.76%	11.87%	-7.97%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JPM

JPMorgan Chase

291.27

86.10

41.97%

BAC

Bank of America

47.32

5.45

13.02%

Citigroup

93.45

30.44

48.31%

HSBC

HSBC Holdings

62.82

22.52

55.88%

MUFG

Mitsubishi UFJ

13.29

2.37

21.70%

WFC

Wells Fargo

79.71

21.87

37.81%

JPMorgan Chase Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures

JPMorgan Chase Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation Held

Neutral

Jul 15, 2025

On July 15, 2025, JPMorgan Chase & Co. held an investor presentation to review its second quarter earnings for 2025. The presentation included slides that were made available on the firm’s website, but the information is not considered filed for purposes of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The report also contained forward-looking statements, highlighting potential risks and uncertainties that could affect actual results, as outlined in the firm’s previous filings with the SEC.