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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
NYSE:JPM

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) AI Stock Analysis

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JPM

JPMorgan Chase

(NYSE:JPM)

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Neutral 67 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$328.00
â–²(10.33% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven primarily by strong profitability and a solid balance sheet, offset by weak/uncertain cash-flow quality. Earnings-call guidance supports the franchise outlook but points to near-term headwinds from higher 2026 expenses, Apple Card-related capital impacts, and rising card credit costs/regulatory risk. Technicals are a modest additional drag given weak momentum and price below key short/mid-term moving averages, while valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and dividend.
Positive Factors
Diversified franchise and resilient revenue mix
JPMorgan’s revenue is meaningfully diversified across Consumer, Corporate & Investment Banking, Commercial and Asset & Wealth Management. This multi‑segment mix reduces single‑cycle exposure, helping stabilize earnings through market cycles and supporting durable fee and NII streams across business lines.
High‑margin, sticky asset management flows
Large, sustained net inflows into Asset & Wealth Management create recurring fee income and high pretax margins. Sticky client assets increase lifetime fee visibility, reduce earnings volatility versus trading, and bolster franchise value while funding long‑term growth investments and cross‑sell opportunities.
Strong capital buffer and improving leverage
A CET1 ratio in the mid‑teens and improving leverage provide a durable capital cushion to absorb credit losses, fund lending and strategic investments, and sustain dividends/repurchases. Robust capital metrics support regulatory flexibility and long‑term franchise resilience amid episodic shocks.
Negative Factors
Weak/volatile cash‑flow conversion
Reported zero operating and free cash flow in the trailing twelve months, after swings in prior years, signals inconsistent conversion of accounting earnings to cash. This hampers predictable capacity for buybacks, discretionary capital returns, and creates reliance on capital markets or retained earnings to fund investments and lending.
Rising, investment‑driven expense profile
Sizable planned expense growth to fund technology, AI, hiring and real‑estate catch‑up is strategic but compresses operating leverage unless productivity gains materialize. Higher fixed costs raise break‑even revenue needs and could restrain margin expansion if revenue or NII growth disappoints.
Apple Card deal, reserve/RWA hit and card credit/regulatory risks
The Apple Card forward purchase materially increased RWA and prompted a large reserve, temporarily pressuring capital and adding RWA volatility. Coupled with rising card charge‑off guidance and policy discussions on rate caps, these factors can structurally compress card economics and constrain consumer loan profitability.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

JPMorgan Chase Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJPMorgan Chase & Co. operates as a financial services company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Consumer & Community Banking (CCB), Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB), Commercial Banking (CB), and Asset & Wealth Management (AWM). The CCB segment offers s deposit, investment and lending products, payments, and services to consumers; lending, deposit, and cash management and payment solutions to small businesses; mortgage origination and servicing activities; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and credit card, auto loan, and leasing services. The CIB segment provides investment banking products and services, including corporate strategy and structure advisory, and equity and debt markets capital-raising services, as well as loan origination and syndication; payments and cross-border financing; and cash and derivative instruments, risk management solutions, prime brokerage, and research. This segment also offers securities services, including custody, fund accounting and administration, and securities lending products for asset managers, insurance companies, and public and private investment funds. The CB segment provides financial solutions, including lending, payments, investment banking, and asset management to small business, large and midsized companies, local governments, and nonprofit clients; and commercial real estate banking services to investors, developers, and owners of multifamily, office, retail, industrial, and affordable housing properties. The AWM segment offers multi-asset investment management solutions in equities, fixed income, alternatives, and money market funds to institutional clients and retail investors; and retirement products and services, brokerage, custody, trusts and estates, loans, mortgages, deposits, and investment management products. The company also provides ATM, online and mobile, and telephone banking services. JPMorgan Chase & Co. was founded in 1799 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyJPMorgan Chase generates revenue through several key streams. The bulk of its income comes from net interest income, which arises from the interest earned on loans and securities minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. Additionally, the company earns substantial fees from its investment banking activities, including advisory services for mergers and acquisitions, underwriting of securities, and market-making activities. The Asset & Wealth Management segment contributes through management fees and performance-based fees from investment products. Furthermore, the Commercial Banking division generates revenue through lending, treasury services, and other financial products targeted at mid-sized businesses. Strategic partnerships, such as collaborations with technology firms for fintech solutions, also enhance its service offerings and revenue potential, while a strong global presence allows it to capitalize on international markets.

JPMorgan Chase Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Assets Under Management
Assets Under Management
Reflects the total market value of assets managed on behalf of clients, indicating the scale and influence of the firm's investment management operations.
Chart InsightsJPMorgan Chase's Assets Under Management (AUM) have shown a robust upward trajectory, reaching $4.6 trillion by Q3 2025, an 18% increase year-over-year. This growth is supported by record performance in Asset and Wealth Management, as highlighted in the latest earnings call. Despite challenges like increased credit costs and a declining CET1 ratio, the firm benefits from strong market revenues and resilient consumer behavior, positioning it well for continued AUM expansion. However, potential headwinds in deposit growth could pose risks to sustaining this momentum.
Data provided by:The Fly

JPMorgan Chase Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jan 13, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed solid underlying financial performance (quarterly revenue and earnings growth, strong AWM inflows, resilient consumer and CIB activity) and a healthy capital position, while also flagging near-term headwinds: meaningful expense growth for 2026 driven by strategic investments, one-time reserve and RWA impacts from the Apple Card transaction, elevated advanced RWA temporarily pressuring capital, and notable regulatory/policy risks (card rate cap discussion, stablecoin regulation) that could materially affect card economics. Management emphasizes investment for long-term franchise growth and expects modest NII and loan growth scenarios while warning of possible downside from policy changes.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly and Full-Year Profitability
Reported Q4 net income of $13.0 billion and EPS of $4.63; ROTCE of 18%. Excluding significant items, full-year net income of $57.5 billion, EPS of $20.18 and ROTCE of 20%.
Revenue Growth
Fourth-quarter revenue of $46.8 billion, up 7% year-over-year, driven by higher markets revenue, asset management fees and auto lease income.
Business Segment Strength — CIB and AWM
Corporate & Investment Bank (CIB) revenue $19.4 billion, up 10% YoY with equities up 40% and fixed income/securitized products/EM rates up 7%. Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) revenue $6.5 billion, up 13% YoY with a pretax margin of 38%.
Strong Asset Flows in AWM
Long-term net inflows of $52 billion in the quarter (positive across channels, regions, and asset classes); liquidity net inflows of $105 billion in the quarter and record client asset net inflows of $553 billion for the year.
Consumer & Card Franchise Resilience and Customer Acquisition
Consumers and small businesses described as resilient; debit and credit sales volumes up 7% YoY. Full-year growth included 1.7 million net new checking accounts and 10.4 million new card accounts; record wealth-management households across digital and advised channels.
Clear Forward Guidance on NII and Expenses
Company guidance: NII ex-markets ~ $95 billion for 2026; total NII ~ $103 billion with markets NII ~ $8 billion; adjusted expense outlook of about $105 billion for 2026 (management cites these investments as strategic for growth).
Prudent Provisions and Transparency on Apple Card Transaction
Acknowledged and booked the previously announced reserve build of $2.2 billion (NCCV) related to the Apple Card forward purchase commitment and provided detailed RWA and allowance disclosures tied to the transaction.
Healthy Capital Ratio
Standardized CET1 ratio of 14.5% at quarter-end, reflecting continued capital strength despite quarterly decline of 30 basis points due to capital distributions and higher RWA.
Negative Updates
Expense Growth and Investment-Driven Increase
Quarterly operating expenses of $24.0 billion, up 5% YoY. Management guides 2026 adjusted expenses to about $105 billion — roughly a $9 billion increase (≈+9% YoY) — driven by volume/revenue-related costs, compensation (including hiring), technology, real estate/office catch-up and targeted investments (including AI).
Apple Card Impact on Reserves and Capital Requirements
Recognized a $2.2 billion reserve build (NCCV) for the Apple Card purchase commitment; the transaction added about $23 billion of standardized RWA and contributed roughly $110 billion of advanced RWA on close (management expects that advanced RWA to decline to about $30 billion in the near term).
CET1 Ratio Decline Quarter-over-Quarter
Standardized CET1 ratio fell 30 basis points sequentially to 14.5%, as net income was more than offset by capital distributions and higher RWA.
Card Credit Stress Outlook
Management expects the 2026 card net charge-off rate to be approximately 3.4%, reflecting an unfavorable delinquency trend despite overall consumer resilience.
Investment Banking Fee Pressure
Investment banking fees down 5% year-over-year, reflecting a strong prior-year comparison and deal timing that pushed some transactions into 2026.
NVFI / Nonbank Financial Institution Exposure Growth and Structural Risks
Nonbank financial institution (NVFI) lending exposure has grown materially over seven years; while historical loss experience is limited (only one charge-off since 2018 related to fraud), management cautions structural risks exist if fraud or a deep recession occur.
Regulatory and Policy Uncertainty — Consumer Pricing Risk
Potential policy actions (public discussion of credit-card interest-rate caps and stablecoin regulation) were highlighted as significant downside risks that could materially alter card economics, reduce access to credit for higher-risk borrowers, and impair industry profitability.
Elevated Advanced RWA and Temporary Capital Drag
Advanced RWA rose materially (partly due to the Apple Card purchase), creating a temporary elevation in advanced RWA and adding complexity to capital planning until the expected reduction to lower levels.
Company Guidance
On the call JPMorgan guided to a 2026 net interest income (NII) profile of roughly $103 billion in total — implicitly about $95 billion ex‑markets with markets NII rising to roughly $8 billion — while forecasting adjusted operating expense of about $105 billion for 2026 and a 2026 card net charge‑off rate of approximately 3.4% (with an unfavorable delinquency trend); at quarter‑end standardized CET1 was 14.5% (down 30 bps), the Apple Card transaction drove about $23 billion of standardized RWA and roughly $110 billion of advanced RWA on close (expected to fall to ~ $30 billion), and the firm took a $2.2 billion NCCV reserve build related to that purchase; for context full‑year 2025 (ex significant items) net income was $57.5 billion, EPS $20.18, revenue $185 billion and ROTCE 20% (Q4 net income $13 billion, EPS $4.63, revenue $46.8 billion up 7% YoY, expenses $24 billion up 5% YoY, ROTCE 18%), with business highlights including DCP revenue $19.4 billion (+6% YoY) and debit/credit sales +7% YoY, CIB revenue $19.4 billion (+10% YoY; equities +40%, FICC +7%), AWM revenue $6.5 billion (+13% YoY) with pretax margin 38% and long‑term net inflows $52 billion in the quarter ($29 billion for the year), liquidity net inflows $105 billion qtr/$183 billion year and record client asset net inflows of $553 billion for 2025.

JPMorgan Chase Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue growth and robust profitability support a high income-statement score (86) and solid balance-sheet score (78) with improving leverage and attractive ROE. The key drag is cash-flow quality (score 38) given reported zero operating/free cash flow in TTM and multi-year volatility, which reduces confidence in earnings-to-cash conversion.
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up strongly versus the prior year, and profitability remains robust with healthy net profit and operating margins. Net income is also holding near peak levels. Offsetting this, margins have drifted down from 2024 and are well below the unusually elevated 2021 level, suggesting profitability is solid but not expanding.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet shows improving leverage, with debt-to-equity down meaningfully in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus 2024, supported by higher equity. Returns on equity remain attractive and fairly steady across the period. The key watchout is that absolute debt remains large and leverage is still elevated versus typical non-bank companies (though common for diversified banks), leaving less room for error if credit conditions worsen.
Cash Flow
38
Negative
Cash generation is the weakest area: operating cash flow and free cash flow are reported at zero in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), following a negative 2024 and multiple years of large swings (including significantly positive 2022 and negative 2020). This volatility reduces confidence in near-term cash conversion and makes trend quality difficult to assess based on the provided figures.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue280.35B270.79B236.27B153.82B127.24B
Gross Profit168.24B158.78B145.67B121.39B130.91B
EBITDA72.59B83.02B69.12B53.22B67.49B
Net Income57.05B58.47B49.55B37.68B48.33B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.42T4.00T3.88T3.67T3.74T
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments850.54B1.66T816.64B763.93B1.03T
Total Debt499.98B751.15B653.07B542.50B548.94B
Total Liabilities4.06T3.66T3.55T3.37T3.45T
Stockholders Equity362.44B344.76B327.88B292.33B294.13B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow100.87B-42.01B12.97B107.12B78.08B
Operating Cash Flow100.87B-42.01B12.97B107.12B78.08B
Investing Cash Flow-514.21B-163.40B67.64B-137.82B-129.34B
Financing Cash Flow269.53B63.45B-25.57B-126.26B275.99B

JPMorgan Chase Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price297.30
Price Trends
50DMA
313.62
Negative
100DMA
309.38
Negative
200DMA
296.87
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.66
Positive
RSI
45.32
Neutral
STOCH
26.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JPM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 297.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 308.77, below the 50-day MA of 313.62, and above the 200-day MA of 296.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.66 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for JPM.

JPMorgan Chase Risk Analysis

JPMorgan Chase disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JPMorgan Chase reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JPMorgan Chase Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
$268.01B16.5415.60%2.14%7.22%48.18%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
67
Neutral
$801.83B14.8516.06%1.79%1.89%12.32%
66
Neutral
$363.58B13.2310.23%1.93%0.15%33.84%
66
Neutral
$270.62B17.5813.91%1.55%2.31%44.49%
59
Neutral
$261.54B13.5211.85%1.80%-4.37%26.41%
58
Neutral
$191.66B15.676.72%1.94%-0.62%105.57%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
JPM
JPMorgan Chase
303.30
49.71
19.60%
BAC
Bank of America
51.69
8.75
20.38%
C
Citigroup
114.34
37.27
48.37%
MS
Morgan Stanley
173.73
46.10
36.13%
WFC
Wells Fargo
86.76
11.94
15.95%
GS
Goldman Sachs Group
921.38
315.97
52.19%

JPMorgan Chase Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
JPMorgan Chase completes $3 billion subordinated notes offering
Positive
Feb 5, 2026

On February 5, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. completed a public offering of $3 billion in Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2037, which were issued under an existing shelf registration statement filed with U.S. securities regulators. As part of the transaction, the bank filed a supporting legal opinion on the validity of the notes, underscoring the formal completion of a sizeable subordinated debt issuance that adds to its long-term capital structure and may support its regulatory capital and funding profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (JPM) stock is a Hold with a $280.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JPMorgan Chase stock, see the JPM Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial Disclosures
JPMorgan Board Boosts CEO Jamie Dimon 2025 Pay
Positive
Jan 22, 2026

In January 2026, JPMorgan Chase’s independent directors approved a 2025 compensation package of $43 million for CEO Jamie Dimon, up from $39 million the prior year, citing his stewardship of the firm’s market‑leading franchises, continued strong financial performance and balance sheet strength, and effective leadership succession planning. The package consists of a $1.5 million base salary and $41.5 million in variable incentive pay, the bulk of which is delivered as at‑risk performance share units tied to return on tangible common equity and governed by stringent vesting, holding, clawback, and recapture provisions, reflecting the board’s emphasis on long‑term, performance‑aligned pay and alignment with shareholder interests. Under Dimon’s leadership in 2025, the bank reported its eighth consecutive year of record revenue at $185.6 billion, net income of $57.0 billion with a 20% ROTCE, an increased quarterly dividend, and robust capital and liquidity metrics, while deploying approximately $3.3 trillion in credit and capital for clients, investing heavily in technology and AI, and opening its new global headquarters at 270 Park Avenue in New York, developments that reinforce its competitive position and capacity to invest in future growth and community support.

The most recent analyst rating on (JPM) stock is a Buy with a $363.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JPMorgan Chase stock, see the JPM Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
JPMorgan Chase Issues $6 Billion in New Debt
Positive
Jan 22, 2026

On January 22, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. completed public offerings totaling $6 billion in new debt, consisting of $400 million of floating rate notes due 2032, $2.6 billion of fixed-to-floating rate notes due 2032, and $3 billion of fixed-to-floating rate notes due 2037, all issued under an existing shelf registration statement. These note offerings further diversify and extend the maturity profile of the firm’s funding base, reinforcing its capital markets presence and supporting its ongoing financing and liquidity management activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (JPM) stock is a Buy with a $363.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JPMorgan Chase stock, see the JPM Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
JPMorgan Chase Reviews Q4 2025 Results in Investor Presentation
Neutral
Jan 13, 2026

On January 13, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. held an investor presentation to review its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, supported by a deck of slides made available on its website in connection with the event. The materials were furnished rather than filed under U.S. securities laws, and the firm emphasized that the presentation contained forward-looking statements subject to significant risks and uncertainties, directing investors to its previously filed 2024 Form 10-K and 2025 Form 10-Qs for a fuller discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, underscoring the regulatory and disclosure framework surrounding its earnings communication to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JPM) stock is a Buy with a $391.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JPMorgan Chase stock, see the JPM Stock Forecast page.

Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
JPMorgan Chase Reviews Q4 2025 Results in Investor Presentation
Neutral
Jan 13, 2026

On January 13, 2026, JPMorgan Chase & Co. held an investor presentation to review its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, supported by a deck of slides made available on its website in connection with the event. The materials were furnished rather than filed under U.S. securities laws, and the firm emphasized that the presentation contained forward-looking statements subject to significant risks and uncertainties, directing investors to its previously filed 2024 Form 10-K and 2025 Form 10-Qs for a fuller discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ, underscoring the regulatory and disclosure framework surrounding its earnings communication to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (JPM) stock is a Buy with a $391.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JPMorgan Chase stock, see the JPM Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
JPMorgan Chase Board Member Todd Combs Resigns
Neutral
Dec 8, 2025

On December 7, 2025, Todd A. Combs announced his resignation from the Board of Directors of JPMorgan Chase & Co., effective immediately. His departure is not due to any disagreements with the company, indicating a smooth transition and continuity in the board’s operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (JPM) stock is a Hold with a $338.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JPMorgan Chase stock, see the JPM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 14, 2026