ING Groep (ING) AI Stock Analysis

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ING Groep

(NYSE:ING)

Rating:75Outperform

Price Target:

$27.00

▲(12.17% Upside)

ING's strong earnings call and bullish technical indicators drive the stock score. The company's financial performance is mixed, with high leverage and cash flow challenges, but valuation remains attractive. Continued growth in mortgages and fee income supports a positive outlook.

ING Groep (ING) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$71.09B

Dividend Yield4.85%

Average Volume (3M)2.76M

Price to Earnings (P/E)11.0

Beta (1Y)0.72

Revenue Growth1.13%

EPS Growth-1.14%

CountryUS

Employees60,000

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength76

IndustryBanks - Diversified

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.64

Shares Outstanding3,021,543,000

10 Day Avg. Volume2,676,293

30 Day Avg. Volume2,759,757

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.81

Enterprise Value/Revenue8.81

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.20

Enterprise Value/Ebitda40.05

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$27.00

Price Target Upside12.17% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

ING Groep Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionING Groep N.V. is a global financial institution headquartered in Amsterdam, Netherlands, offering a wide range of banking, investment, life insurance, and retirement services. The company operates primarily through its retail and wholesale banking segments, serving millions of customers across Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia. ING is known for its strong digital banking platform, providing innovative solutions such as online banking, mobile banking apps, and various financial products aimed at both individual and corporate clients.

How the Company Makes MoneyING Groep generates revenue primarily through interest income from its lending activities, which includes personal loans, mortgages, and corporate financing. The bank also earns substantial fees from its retail and wholesale banking services, such as account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and advisory services. Additionally, ING benefits from investment income generated through its asset management division. The company maintains strategic partnerships with fintech firms and technology providers, enhancing its digital offerings and expanding its customer base. Furthermore, ING's focus on cost management and operational efficiency contributes to its profitability, alongside its efforts in sustainable finance, catering to the growing demand for environmentally responsible investment solutions.

ING Groep Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflected a strong start to the year with significant growth in deposits, loans, and sustainable finance initiatives. Despite macroeconomic challenges and higher operating expenses, ING demonstrated robust capital management and continued focus on shareholder returns.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Commercial Growth

ING achieved strong commercial growth with net core lending and retail banking growing by €8.6 billion, driven primarily by mortgages. Fee income increased by 10% from the first quarter of last year.

Sustainable Finance Initiatives

The volume of sustainable finance mobilized increased by 23% from the first quarter of last year to €30 billion. ING is the first global systematically important bank to have climate targets validated by the Science-based Targets Initiative.

Shareholder Returns

ING announced a share buyback of €2 billion. Including this amount, over €28 billion has been distributed to shareholders since 2021.

Robust Capital Position

The CET1 ratio was at 13.6% at the end of the first quarter, despite the implementation of Basel IV.

Negative Updates

Wholesale Banking Lending Decline

There was a modest decline in lending within Wholesale Banking, attributed to seasonal volatility and capital optimization.

Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Uncertainty

The introduction of tariffs and current macroeconomic uncertainty have led to lower growth forecasts globally.

Increase in Operating Expenses

Operating expenses increased by just over 6% due to inflationary pressures and investments in business growth.

Risk Costs

Total risk costs were €313 million, driven by collective provisioning in the consumer and business lending portfolio.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, ING reported robust commercial growth driven by a €8.6 billion increase in net core lending, primarily in residential mortgages. The bank also experienced a significant inflow of deposits, particularly in Retail Germany following a promotional campaign, which contributed to a 10% year-on-year rise in fee income. ING mobilized €30 billion in sustainable finance, marking a 23% increase from the previous year, and maintained a CET1 ratio of 13.6%. The bank announced a €2 billion share buyback, bringing total shareholder distributions since 2021 to over €28 billion. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff impacts, ING reaffirmed its 2025 outlook and 2027 targets, citing strong fundamentals and diversified growth across geographies and sectors.

ING Groep Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ING Groep shows strong revenue growth but faces challenges with profitability margins and cash flow. The balance sheet is robust in terms of assets but has high leverage. Improving cash generation and managing leverage are crucial for financial stability.

Income Statement

Positive

ING Groep has shown a mixed performance in terms of revenue and profit growth. The recent annual report indicates a significant jump in total revenue to 66.4 billion, which implies strong revenue growth. However, the net profit margin stands at approximately 9.6%, which is moderate for the industry. The gross profit margin has decreased to approximately 34.1% from previous years, indicating potential cost management issues. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy EBIT margin of around 14%.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reveals a robust equity base with a stockholders' equity of 50.3 billion and a total assets base exceeding 1 trillion. However, the debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at approximately 3.4, indicating significant leverage. The equity ratio is moderate at around 4.9%, reflecting a stable but not overly strong equity position relative to total assets. Return on equity is around 12.7%, which is healthy but leaves room for improvement.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis shows significant negative free cash flow, primarily due to substantial negative operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, suggesting that the company might be struggling to generate cash relative to its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	22.67B	66.41B	22.41B	33.61B	18.29B	17.82B
Gross Profit	21.70B	21.41B	22.58B	29.00M	18.29B	17.82B
EBITDA	4.99B	9.97B	11.17B	6.12B	7.47B	4.57B
Net Income	6.27B	6.39B	4.14B	3.67B	4.78B	2.48B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.08T	1.02T	975.58B	967.82B	951.29B	937.38B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	207.27B	115.13B	49.68B	118.60B	137.80B	147.07B
Total Debt	168.32B	171.33B	150.00B	119.50B	116.01B	78.95B
Total Liabilities	1.03T	969.24B	923.40B	917.41B	116.64B	79.55B
Stockholders Equity	51.67B	50.31B	51.24B	49.91B	53.92B	47.67B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	-22.88B	-11.59B	-11.34B	-15.13B	102.89B
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	-22.54B	-11.34B	-11.11B	-14.94B	103.18B
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-6.03B	-8.54B	-5.31B	6.22B	-8.49B
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	5.37B	-4.89B	4.65B	5.39B	-36.73B

ING Groep Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price24.07

Price Trends

50DMA

23.18

Positive

100DMA

21.55

Positive

200DMA

18.87

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.26

Positive

RSI

53.64

Neutral

STOCH

20.62

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ING, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.33, above the 50-day MA of 23.18, and above the 200-day MA of 18.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ING.

ING Groep Risk Analysis

ING Groep disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ING Groep reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ING Groep Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NWG	82 Outperform	$54.85B	8.86	13.80%	4.65%	10.03%	29.51%
BCS	78 Outperform	$68.92B	8.98	9.83%	2.20%	16.06%	64.31%
WFC	77 Outperform	$263.26B	14.03	11.51%	2.05%	0.37%	19.89%
ING	75 Outperform	$71.09B	11.05	12.08%	4.85%	1.13%	-1.14%
BBVA	75 Outperform	$104.30B	9.17	18.32%	4.35%	7.86%	17.13%
C	73 Outperform	$177.78B	14.01	6.64%	2.40%	0.52%	89.25%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$17.88B	11.66	10.46%	3.76%	9.66%	1.70%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ING

ING Groep

24.07

7.16

42.34%

BBVA

Banco Bilbao

17.99

8.41

87.79%

BCS

Barclays

19.68

7.87

66.64%

Citigroup

95.03

36.21

61.56%

NWG

NatWest Group

13.88

5.29

61.58%

WFC

Wells Fargo

80.51

24.89

44.75%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 24, 2025