Banco Bilbao (BBVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $117.42B
• Dividend Yield: 3.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.40M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: 7.52%
• EPS Growth: 10.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 124,741
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 5,708,968,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,237,608
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,397,874
• PEG Ratio: 18.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.21
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.89
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.09
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.36
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $47.32B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $22.50 ▼(-8.80% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability and improved leverage (financial performance) alongside a very constructive earnings outlook and shareholder-return focus from the latest call. Valuation is supportive (moderate P/E and solid yield), while the main offset is weaker near-term technical momentum (negative MACD and trading below key short-term averages).

Positive Factors

High RoTE / Profitability

Sustained RoTE near 20% indicates the bank consistently generates strong returns on capital across cycles. High returns support internal capital generation, dividend capacity and buybacks, enabling durable shareholder returns and reinvestment without relying solely on external funding.

Diversified revenue & strong growth

Simultaneous growth in NII, fees and loans plus large customer acquisition shows multi-channel revenue expansion and cross-sell potential. This diversified top-line momentum improves structural resilience, reduces reliance on any single market, and supports long-term organic earnings growth.

Best-in-class efficiency

Low cost-to-income across core geographies demonstrates scalable operations and strong digital/branch economics. Durable efficiency advantages protect margins through revenue cycles, enable reinvestment in growth initiatives, and underpin sustainable high profitability over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Revenue & cash flow volatility

Multi-year volatility in revenue and episodic negative gross profit reduce predictability of core earnings and cash conversion. This makes forecasting capital generation and provisioning more uncertain and raises reliance on management execution to smooth cycles over the medium term.

Capital consumption from growth & buybacks

Significant buybacks and rapid loan-driven RWA growth materially reduce CET1 buffers. Lower regulatory capital headroom heightens sensitivity to macro shocks or unexpected losses, constraining future capital flexibility for lending or distributions during downturns.

Spread pressure & country risk

Structural rate declines and market-specific shocks compress lending margins while select geographies (Turkey, Argentina) require elevated provisioning. Together these factors can erode net interest income and increase credit costs, pressuring sustainable profitability across cycles.

Banco Bilbao Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides retail banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services. It offers current accounts; and demand, savings, overnight, time, term, and subordinated deposits. The company also provides loan products; deals in securities; and manages pension and investment funds. In addition, it offers credit cards; corporate and investment banking services; insurance products and services; and real estate services. The company provides its products through online and mobile channels. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of 6,083 branches and 29,148 ATMs. It operates in Spain, Mexico, South America, the United States, Turkey, Asia, and rest of Europe. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Bilbao, Spain.

How the Company Makes Money

BBVA makes money mainly by earning interest income and fees from providing banking and financial services, supplemented by results from trading/market activities and commissions from asset and insurance-related distribution. 1) Net interest income (lending vs. funding): The largest, core source of earnings for a universal bank like BBVA is typically the spread between (a) interest earned on interest-bearing assets—such as consumer loans, mortgages, corporate loans, credit card balances, and lending to small and medium-sized businesses—and (b) interest paid on funding sources—such as customer deposits, wholesale funding, and other borrowings. Changes in market interest rates, loan growth, deposit mix, and funding costs materially affect this spread and therefore profitability. 2) Net fee and commission income (service charges and commissions): BBVA generates non-interest revenue by charging fees for services such as account maintenance, transaction and payment processing, card-related fees, international transfers and foreign exchange services, custody and securities services, and arranging financing. It also earns commissions for distributing and servicing investment and wealth products (for example, mutual funds or managed portfolios) and, where applicable, for insurance-related distribution/servicing through bancassurance-style offerings. 3) Corporate & Investment Banking (CIB) and capital markets-related revenue: Through serving corporate and institutional clients, BBVA can earn revenue from underwriting or arranging debt issuance, syndicated lending and structured finance, advisory services, and client-driven markets activity (e.g., foreign exchange, interest rate products, and other hedging solutions). Revenue from these activities is influenced by client activity levels, market conditions, and deal volumes. 4) Trading and other financial results: Like many large banks, BBVA may generate income (or losses) from financial operations, including trading activities and valuation changes in certain financial instruments held for risk management or market-making purposes. These results can be more volatile than traditional lending and fee income. 5) Asset management, wealth management, and private banking economics: BBVA earns management and performance-related fees (where applicable) for managing client assets and providing advisory services. Earnings tend to correlate with assets under management, client inflows/outflows, and market performance. 6) Insurance-related earnings (where applicable): To the extent BBVA participates in insurance distribution and/or insurance businesses, it can earn commissions, fee income, and/or profit shares depending on the structure (e.g., acting as an intermediary versus underwriting risk). Specific partnership structures vary by market. 7) Credit quality and provisioning impact: While not a revenue stream, BBVA’s reported profitability is significantly affected by credit losses (loan impairment provisions). Higher defaults reduce earnings; improved credit performance supports profitability. 8) Scale, digital channels, and partnerships as enablers: BBVA’s earnings are supported by scale in deposits and payments, cross-selling multiple products to the same customer (e.g., accounts + cards + loans + investments), and digital distribution that can lower servicing costs and increase transaction volumes. Specific named partnerships or contractual terms are null.

Banco Bilbao Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and returns are strong (Income Statement score 78; consistently strong ROE), and leverage has improved versus 2023/2024 (Balance Sheet score 70). Offsetting this, revenue and cash flows have been volatile across years and cash flow consistency is weaker (Cash Flow score 62), with an unusual gross profit weakness noted in 2024.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with healthy operating and net margins and net income holding near prior-year levels. Revenue rebounded strongly versus 2024, but the multi-year top-line path has been volatile (notably the sharp revenue drop in 2024 after a very strong 2023). A key watch item is the unusually weak/negative gross profit in 2024, even though operating profit and net income remained strong.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved meaningfully: debt-to-equity declined from elevated levels in 2023/2024 to a more moderate level in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Equity has grown steadily and returns on equity are consistently strong (mid-to-high teens recently), which supports the quality of earnings. That said, absolute debt remains large versus equity and assets, and the bank’s leverage profile can amplify sensitivity to credit/macro shocks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with very large operating cash flow and free cash flow, and free cash flow broadly tracks net income. However, cash flow has been highly volatile across years, including negative operating and free cash flow in several annual periods (2021–2024), which reduces confidence in consistency and makes underlying cash conversion harder to underwrite.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	36.93B	35.48B	58.19B	40.37B	31.32B
Gross Profit	30.86B	-6.66B	28.97B	24.68B	19.97B
EBITDA	17.75B	16.94B	13.82B	11.60B	8.48B
Net Income	10.51B	10.05B	8.02B	6.36B	4.65B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	859.58B	772.40B	775.56B	712.09B	662.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	275.94B	153.57B	177.95B	178.37B	134.96B
Total Debt	81.84B	144.43B	179.35B	114.64B	116.09B
Total Liabilities	797.78B	712.39B	720.29B	661.57B	614.13B
Stockholders Equity	57.36B	55.65B	51.70B	46.90B	43.91B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	14.14B	-19.39B	-2.54B	21.28B	-2.19B
Operating Cash Flow	14.97B	-18.19B	-721.00M	23.72B	-1.24B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.40B	-1.42B	-1.42B	-3.91B	-1.63B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.67B	-2.57B	-1.84B	-7.56B	-4.35B

Banco Bilbao Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 24.67
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBVA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.43, above the 50-day MA of 23.66, and above the 200-day MA of 19.67, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BBVA.

Banco Bilbao Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BBVA	72 Outperform	$117.42B	11.69	18.53%	3.27%	7.52%	10.40%
SAN	72 Outperform	$160.20B	10.97	13.89%	1.85%	-15.34%	16.71%
ING	71 Outperform	$73.01B	11.24	12.46%	4.14%	2.20%	-0.17%
MUFG	69 Neutral	$186.22B	13.57	9.01%	2.48%	-1.09%	8.53%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BCS	60 Neutral	$70.52B	9.29	9.41%	1.71%	17.50%	49.25%
C	58 Neutral	$184.89B	21.83	6.71%	1.94%	-0.62%	105.57%

Banco Bilbao Corporate Events

BBVA Nears 70% Completion of First Tranche in €1.05 Billion Share Buyback

On February 16, 2026, BBVA reported progress on the first tranche of its previously announced share buyback program, managed by J.P. Morgan SE. Between February 9 and 13, 2026, the bank continued repurchasing its own shares, bringing the total cash deployed in this tranche to €1,045,068,244.74, or about 69.67% of the tranche’s maximum cash amount.

The update signals BBVA’s ongoing execution of a sizable capital return initiative to shareholders via buybacks. By nearing 70% completion of the first tranche, the bank underscores its commitment to capital optimization and shareholder remuneration, which may support earnings per share and bolster its market positioning in the European banking sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBVA) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Bilbao stock, see the BBVA Stock Forecast page.

BBVA Advances First Tranche of Share Buyback, Reaching Nearly 30% of Target

On January 19, 2026, BBVA reported the progress of the first tranche of its share buyback program, originally announced as inside information on December 19, 2025. Based on transactions executed between January 12 and January 16, 2026 and managed by J.P. Morgan SE, the bank has repurchased shares for a total cash amount of €443.36 million, representing approximately 29.56% of the maximum cash amount earmarked for this initial tranche. The continued execution of the buyback signals BBVA’s active capital management and may support earnings per share and shareholder returns, reinforcing the bank’s positioning in the European banking sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBVA) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Bilbao stock, see the BBVA Stock Forecast page.