Banco Bilbao (BBVA) AI Stock Analysis

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Banco Bilbao

(NYSE:BBVA)

Rating:77Outperform

Price Target:

$17.00

▲(11.84%Upside)

BBVA's strong earnings performance and attractive valuation are key strengths, supported by technical bullish momentum. Financial health is solid but moderated by cash flow challenges and high leverage. Risks from regional economic uncertainties and new taxes are noted, but overall, the company shows robust potential.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Net profit is 8% ahead of consensus.

Market Position

BBVA is defined as a compounder with high-quality franchise businesses, sustainable revenues, dominant market positions, and pricing power.

Strategic Initiatives

M&A with Sabadell could unlock significant value through market share gains, cost synergies, and scale in product offerings.

Negative Factors

Costs

Costs were a 10% higher vs. consensus.

Geographical Exposure

Mexico represents a significant 60% of BBVA’s group profits, which indicates a high dependency on one region.

Valuation

BBVA trades at a steep discount to peers despite a c.19% ROTE.

Banco Bilbao (BBVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$86.48B

Dividend Yield6.08%

Average Volume (3M)1.36M

Price to Earnings (P/E)7.8

Beta (1Y)0.78

Revenue Growth19.48%

EPS Growth26.26%

CountryUS

Employees124,741

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength79

IndustryBanks - Diversified

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.51

Shares Outstanding5,763,285,600

10 Day Avg. Volume1,524,017

30 Day Avg. Volume1,357,150

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.12

Price to Book (P/B)0.74

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio1.63

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$13.68

Price Target Upside-10.00% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering0

Banco Bilbao Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) is a global financial services group headquartered in Bilbao, Spain. It operates across various sectors, including retail banking, corporate banking, asset management, and investment banking. BBVA offers a wide range of financial products and services such as personal and business loans, credit cards, mortgages, insurance, and wealth management solutions. The bank is known for its strong digital banking capabilities and operates in several countries across Europe, North and South America, and Asia.

How the Company Makes MoneyBBVA generates revenue primarily through interest income from loans and mortgages, as well as from fees and commissions associated with banking services like asset management, transaction processing, and advisory services. The bank also earns income from trading and investment activities, which includes buying and selling securities and other financial instruments. Key revenue streams include retail banking services, which provide interest and fee income, and corporate banking, which offers loans, credit, and financial services to businesses. BBVA's digital transformation strategy aims to enhance customer experience and drive growth in digital banking, contributing to its revenue. Strategic partnerships and collaborations, such as fintech alliances and joint ventures, also play a significant role in expanding its market reach and boosting earnings.

Banco Bilbao Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 5.78%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with significant growth in profitability, customer acquisition, and loan growth. However, there are challenges due to new taxes in Spain and macroeconomic uncertainties in Turkey and Mexico that could impact future performance.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Tangible Value Growth

Tangible value per share plus dividends increased by 14.1% year-over-year and 3.3% in the first quarter of 2025.

Outstanding Profitability

Return on tangible equity reached 20.2% and return on equity was 19.3% in the first quarter of 2025.

Record Net Attributable Profit

Net attributable profit for the quarter reached EUR 2,698 million, a 23% increase year-over-year and 10.9% higher than the previous quarter.

Robust Loan Growth

Loan growth in Spain reached 6.6% year-over-year, and Mexico saw a significant loan growth of 17.2% year-over-year.

Increased Customer Base

The bank acquired a record 2.9 million new customers in the first quarter of 2025, with 66% through digital channels.

Improved Efficiency Ratio

The efficiency ratio improved to 38.2%, an improvement of 469 basis points versus last year.

Solid Asset Quality

Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio stood at 2.9% and the coverage ratio at 82%, with a cost of risk at 130 basis points.

Negative Updates

Banking Tax Impact in Spain

A EUR 85 million charge was booked under income tax for the quarterly accrual of the new banking tax in Spain.

Challenges in Turkey

Higher than anticipated inflation and interest rates in Turkey are expected, impacting profitability with net profit to close somewhat below EUR 1 billion in 2025.

Potential Impact of Global Trade Uncertainty

Uncertainty regarding global trade dynamics, particularly tariffs, could impact future loan growth and economic conditions in Mexico.

Company Guidance

During BBVA's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided a comprehensive update on its financial metrics, demonstrating strong performance and strategic focus. Tangible value per share plus dividends increased by 14.1% year-over-year, and 3.3% over the quarter. Profitability was highlighted with a return on tangible equity of 20.2% and a return on equity of 19.3%, positioning BBVA as potentially the most profitable European bank among the continent's largest 15 banks. Net attributable profit for the quarter was EUR 2,698 million, marking a 23% increase year-over-year and a 10.9% rise from the previous quarter, translating into earnings per share of EUR 0.45, a 24% increase year-over-year. The CET1 fully loaded capital ratio improved by 21 basis points to 13.09%, exceeding the target range and regulatory requirements. Net interest income saw an 8.5% year-over-year growth, with net fees and commissions up by 19%, while the efficiency ratio improved to 38.2%. Asset quality remained solid with a cost of risk at 130 basis points. BBVA also reported record acquisition of 2.9 million new customers and EUR 29 billion in sustainable business for the quarter.

Banco Bilbao Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Banco Bilbao demonstrates solid financial performance with strong revenue and profit growth. However, high leverage and recent cash flow challenges present risks. The income statement shows robust growth, with a strong equity base on the balance sheet, though cash flow issues need attention.

Income Statement

Positive

Banco Bilbao has shown strong growth in its revenue and profitability over recent years. The net profit margin has improved significantly, considering the net income growth from €3.84 billion in 2020 to €10.05 billion in 2024. The gross profit margin is robust, indicating efficient cost management. However, the volatility in EBITDA margins suggests potential fluctuations in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a solid equity base with a stockholders' equity of €55.65 billion in 2024. The equity ratio indicates a stable financial structure, although there's a high debt-to-equity ratio due to significant liabilities. The bank's cash reserves are substantial, providing a buffer against financial risks.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow statement reveals challenges in maintaining positive free cash flow, primarily due to increased capital expenditures and negative operating cash flow in 2024. Despite these issues, the bank's ability to generate operating cash flow has shown improvements in prior years, highlighting potential for future cash flow recovery.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
54.99B	31.57B	27.16B	22.98B	22.82B	23.11B
	Gross Profit
47.75B	33.63B	29.54B	11.00M	22.82B	23.11B
	EBIT
12.40B	17.86B	15.30B	12.64B	7.25B	5.25B
	EBITDA
13.13B	16.94B	13.82B	11.60B	8.48B	6.54B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
10.55B	10.05B	8.02B	6.36B	4.65B	1.30B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
151.20B	250.00B	256.84B	225.41B	228.87B	208.37B
	Total Assets
772.86B	772.40B	775.56B	712.09B	662.88B	733.80B
	Total Debt
107.72B	144.43B	179.11B	114.64B	116.09B	110.80B
	Net Debt
47.55B	84.55B	95.74B	29.55B	41.53B	37.90B
	Total Liabilities
713.60B	712.39B	720.29B	661.57B	614.13B	683.78B
	Stockholders Equity
55.08B	55.65B	51.70B	46.90B	43.91B	44.55B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-32.20B	-19.39B	-2.54B	21.28B	-2.19B	38.23B
	Operating Cash Flow
-30.98B	-18.19B	-721.00M	23.72B	-1.24B	39.35B
	Investing Cash Flow
11.81B	-1.42B	-1.42B	-3.91B	-1.63B	-37.00M
	Financing Cash Flow
-3.21B	-2.57B	-1.84B	-7.56B	-4.35B	-2.07B

Banco Bilbao Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price15.20

Price Trends

50DMA

14.19

Positive

100DMA

13.33

Positive

200DMA

11.52

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.22

Positive

RSI

59.06

Neutral

STOCH

70.29

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.14, above the 50-day MA of 14.19, and above the 200-day MA of 11.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BBVA.

Banco Bilbao Risk Analysis

Banco Bilbao disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Banco Bilbao reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Banco Bilbao Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SAN	82 Outperform	$119.74B	8.53	13.25%	3.13%	0.27%	19.44%
HSBC	80 Outperform	$208.34B	11.00	10.83%	3.32%	-1.91%	-6.79%
NWG	77 Outperform	$55.96B	9.34	13.70%	3.83%	18.85%	14.85%
BBVA	77 Outperform	$86.48B	7.80	19.22%	6.08%	19.48%	26.26%
ING	76 Outperform	$66.11B	9.94	11.92%	12.93%	-0.63%	-6.01%
BCS	74 Outperform	$62.34B	8.91	9.36%	3.11%	11.33%	47.74%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.85B	9.81	7.79%	78.20%	12.23%	-7.93%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

BBVA

Banco Bilbao

15.20

5.62

58.66%

BCS

Barclays

17.55

7.10

67.94%

HSBC

HSBC Holdings

59.42

18.17

44.05%

ING

ING Groep

20.99

4.64

28.38%

NWG

NatWest Group

13.98

6.34

82.98%

SAN

Banco Santander SA

7.96

3.16

65.83%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.