Banco Bilbao (BBVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $133.91B
• Dividend Yield: 3.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.79
• Revenue Growth: 7.52%
• EPS Growth: 10.40%
• Country: US
• Employees: 124,741
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Diversified
• EPS (TTM): 0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 5,708,968,800
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,084,693
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,086,335
• PEG Ratio: 18.94
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.07
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.21
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.75
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.21
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.35
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.69
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.37
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $47.12B

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(5.39% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying profitability and improved leverage (financial performance) alongside a very constructive earnings outlook and shareholder-return focus from the latest call. Valuation is supportive (moderate P/E and solid yield), while the main offset is weaker near-term technical momentum (negative MACD and trading below key short-term averages).

Positive Factors

Strong Profitability / Record Net Profit

Record net profit and consistently strong ROE signal durable earnings power. High profitability generates recurring internal capital, supports dividend and buyback programs, and provides a buffer versus cyclical shocks, strengthening long-term capacity to invest and return capital to shareholders.

Robust Loan, Fee Growth & Customer Acquisition

Simultaneous strong loan expansion, fee momentum and large customer intake imply durable revenue diversification and cross-sell potential. Sustained customer growth and fee mix reduce reliance on interest margins alone, supporting revenue resilience over the medium term despite rate volatility.

Improved Capital Generation & Active Returns

Strong capital generation allowed meaningful shareholder returns while keeping CET1 above target pre-distribution. This indicates both capacity to fund growth from earnings and disciplined capital allocation, supporting sustainable returns and investor alignment over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Revenue & Cash Flow Volatility

Material multi-year volatility in top-line and cash conversion, including a gross profit anomaly in 2024, weakens predictability of free cash flow and complicates capital planning. Inconsistent cash generation raises execution risk for growth, investment and dividend policies over the medium term.

Spread Compression Sensitivity

Significant sensitivity of customer spreads to falling rates threatens NII and net margins if rates decline further. Given BBVA's large loan book, sustained spread compression would structurally lower recurring earnings and require either repricing, product mix shifts, or cost cuts to preserve returns.

Capital Consumption from Rapid Growth & Buybacks

Rapid, capital-intensive loan growth combined with sizeable buybacks materially reduced capital headroom. Lower pro-forma CET1 increases sensitivity to macro or credit shocks and constrains regulatory flexibility, making capital management and risk-weighted asset control critical going forward.

Banco Bilbao Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides retail banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services. It offers current accounts; and demand, savings, overnight, time, term, and subordinated deposits. The company also provides loan products; deals in securities; and manages pension and investment funds. In addition, it offers credit cards; corporate and investment banking services; insurance products and services; and real estate services. The company provides its products through online and mobile channels. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of 6,083 branches and 29,148 ATMs. It operates in Spain, Mexico, South America, the United States, Turkey, Asia, and rest of Europe. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Bilbao, Spain.

How the Company Makes Money

BBVA generates revenue through several key streams. The primary source of income comes from net interest income, which is the difference between the interest earned on loans and the interest paid on deposits. Additionally, BBVA earns substantial fees and commissions from various banking services, including transaction fees, asset management fees, and advisory services. The bank also generates revenue through its investment banking division by providing underwriting services, mergers and acquisitions advisory, and capital market services. Furthermore, BBVA has established significant partnerships with fintech companies to enhance its digital banking offerings, which not only broadens its customer base but also increases transactional revenue. Other contributing factors to its earnings include income from foreign exchange and trading activities, particularly in its international markets.

Banco Bilbao Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and returns are strong (Income Statement score 78; consistently strong ROE), and leverage has improved versus 2023/2024 (Balance Sheet score 70). Offsetting this, revenue and cash flows have been volatile across years and cash flow consistency is weaker (Cash Flow score 62), with an unusual gross profit weakness noted in 2024.

Income Statement

Profitability is solid in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with healthy operating and net margins and net income holding near prior-year levels. Revenue rebounded strongly versus 2024, but the multi-year top-line path has been volatile (notably the sharp revenue drop in 2024 after a very strong 2023). A key watch item is the unusually weak/negative gross profit in 2024, even though operating profit and net income remained strong.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved meaningfully: debt-to-equity declined from elevated levels in 2023/2024 to a more moderate level in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). Equity has grown steadily and returns on equity are consistently strong (mid-to-high teens recently), which supports the quality of earnings. That said, absolute debt remains large versus equity and assets, and the bank’s leverage profile can amplify sensitivity to credit/macro shocks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with very large operating cash flow and free cash flow, and free cash flow broadly tracks net income. However, cash flow has been highly volatile across years, including negative operating and free cash flow in several annual periods (2021–2024), which reduces confidence in consistency and makes underlying cash conversion harder to underwrite.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	36.93B	35.48B	58.19B	40.37B	31.32B
Gross Profit	30.86B	-6.66B	28.97B	24.68B	19.97B
EBITDA	17.75B	16.94B	13.82B	11.60B	8.48B
Net Income	10.51B	10.05B	8.02B	6.36B	4.65B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	859.58B	772.40B	775.56B	712.09B	662.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	275.94B	153.57B	177.95B	178.37B	134.96B
Total Debt	81.84B	144.43B	179.35B	114.64B	116.09B
Total Liabilities	797.78B	712.39B	720.29B	661.57B	614.13B
Stockholders Equity	57.36B	55.65B	51.70B	46.90B	43.91B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	112.67B	-19.39B	-2.54B	21.28B	-2.19B
Operating Cash Flow	113.47B	-18.19B	-721.00M	23.72B	-1.24B
Investing Cash Flow	-100.44B	-1.42B	-1.42B	-3.91B	-1.63B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.53B	-2.57B	-1.84B	-7.56B	-4.35B

Banco Bilbao Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 24.67
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BBVA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 24.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.48, above the 50-day MA of 23.87, and above the 200-day MA of 19.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BBVA.

Banco Bilbao Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MUFG	77 Outperform	$212.77B	16.99	9.01%	2.48%	-1.09%	8.53%
BBVA	72 Outperform	$133.91B	11.83	18.99%	3.27%	7.52%	10.40%
SAN	72 Outperform	$184.95B	12.20	13.08%	1.85%	-15.34%	16.71%
ING	71 Outperform	$82.64B	12.27	12.79%	4.14%	2.20%	-0.17%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BCS	60 Neutral	$90.09B	11.45	10.00%	1.71%	17.50%	49.25%
C	58 Neutral	$208.04B	16.63	6.72%	1.94%	-0.62%	105.57%

Banco Bilbao Corporate Events

BBVA Nears 70% Completion of First Tranche in €1.05 Billion Share Buyback

On February 16, 2026, BBVA reported progress on the first tranche of its previously announced share buyback program, managed by J.P. Morgan SE. Between February 9 and 13, 2026, the bank continued repurchasing its own shares, bringing the total cash deployed in this tranche to €1,045,068,244.74, or about 69.67% of the tranche’s maximum cash amount.

The update signals BBVA’s ongoing execution of a sizable capital return initiative to shareholders via buybacks. By nearing 70% completion of the first tranche, the bank underscores its commitment to capital optimization and shareholder remuneration, which may support earnings per share and bolster its market positioning in the European banking sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBVA) stock is a Buy with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Bilbao stock, see the BBVA Stock Forecast page.

BBVA Advances First Tranche of Share Buyback, Reaching Nearly 30% of Target

On January 19, 2026, BBVA reported the progress of the first tranche of its share buyback program, originally announced as inside information on December 19, 2025. Based on transactions executed between January 12 and January 16, 2026 and managed by J.P. Morgan SE, the bank has repurchased shares for a total cash amount of €443.36 million, representing approximately 29.56% of the maximum cash amount earmarked for this initial tranche. The continued execution of the buyback signals BBVA’s active capital management and may support earnings per share and shareholder returns, reinforcing the bank’s positioning in the European banking sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBVA) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Bilbao stock, see the BBVA Stock Forecast page.

BBVA Completes €993 Million Buyback Program

On December 10, 2025, BBVA announced the completion of its Buyback Program, having reached the maximum monetary amount of 993 million euros. The program involved acquiring 54,316,765 shares, representing approximately 0.93% of the company’s share capital. The purpose of this buyback is to reduce BBVA’s share capital by redeeming the acquired shares, which is expected to impact the company’s financial structure positively and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBVA) stock is a Buy with a $24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Bilbao stock, see the BBVA Stock Forecast page.

BBVA Nears Completion of Share Buyback Program

BBVA announced the progress of its share buyback program, which was initially communicated on October 30, 2025. Between December 1 and December 8, 2025, BBVA executed transactions that brought the total cash amount spent on the buyback to approximately 922.48 million Euros, representing 92.90% of the program’s maximum cash limit. This buyback initiative is part of BBVA’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and deliver value to its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBVA) stock is a Buy with a $24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Bilbao stock, see the BBVA Stock Forecast page.

BBVA Advances Share Buyback Program in November 2025

BBVA announced the execution of a share buyback program, purchasing shares between November 17 and November 21, 2025. The transactions amounted to approximately 538.39 million Euros, representing 54.22% of the program’s maximum cash amount, indicating significant progress in the bank’s strategic financial maneuvers.

The most recent analyst rating on (BBVA) stock is a Buy with a $24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Banco Bilbao stock, see the BBVA Stock Forecast page.