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Insperity (NSP)
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Insperity (NSP) AI Stock Analysis

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NSP

Insperity

(NYSE:NSP)

Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$49.00
▼(-6.27% Downside)
Insperity's overall stock score is primarily impacted by financial performance challenges, including high leverage and declining profitability. Technical indicators confirm bearish trends, while valuation metrics suggest overvaluation. However, strategic moves and positive corporate events offer some optimism for future improvements.
Positive Factors
Product Launch
There is clear optimism over the early 2026 beta launch of HRScale, the company’s joint solution with Workday.
Negative Factors
Earnings Guidance
The second-quarter miss and downward revision to the company’s 2025 adjusted EPS guidance drove shares meaningfully lower.
Financial Performance
Insperity's second-quarter gross profit of $223 million was $16 million below the estimate, dragged down by persistently higher-than-expected benefit costs.
Healthcare Costs
Healthcare costs trended meaningfully higher, coming in $12 million above management’s forecast due to a combination of higher-than-expected pharmacy costs and claims incurred but not yet reported.

Insperity (NSP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Insperity Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionInsperity, Inc. (NSP) is a leading provider of human resources and business performance solutions for small to medium-sized businesses across various sectors. Founded in 1986, the company offers a comprehensive range of services including payroll processing, employee benefits, human capital management, and workforce optimization. Insperity's core mission is to help businesses improve their performance through effective HR solutions and outsourcing, allowing clients to focus on their core operations while managing their workforce efficiently.
How the Company Makes MoneyInsperity generates revenue primarily through its Professional Employer Organization (PEO) services, which involve co-employing clients' employees and assuming many HR-related responsibilities. The company charges clients a service fee that typically includes a percentage of payroll and additional fees for services like benefits administration and compliance assistance. Key revenue streams also include payroll processing, employee benefits administration, and HR consulting services. Insperity has established significant partnerships with various insurance providers and technology platforms, enhancing its service offerings and contributing to its earnings. Additionally, the company benefits from economies of scale as it expands its client base, allowing it to negotiate better rates for employee benefits, which further drives profitability.

Insperity Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 01, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -12.25%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook. While there is progress with the Workday partnership and cost management, higher-than-expected benefits costs and declining gross profit per worksite employee are significant challenges. The sentiment is cautiously optimistic for future growth and profitability improvements in 2026.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Resilience in Sales and Retention
Despite economic uncertainties, the sales force showed resiliency with a 2% increase in new sales over Q2 2024. Client retention remained strong, averaging 99% per month.
Strategic Workday Partnership
Progress on the Insperity HRScale, a joint offering with Workday, with a target go-live date for beta clients early next year. The partnership is expected to expand the addressable market and improve service delivery.
Operating Expense Management
Company-wide focus on expense management resulted in a 3% decrease in operating expenses year-over-year, with significant reductions in travel, professional fees, and other G&A costs.
Growth in Worksite Employees
Underlying growth of more than 3% in paid worksite employees from February to July, despite a 0.7% year-over-year increase in each of the first two quarters.
Negative Updates
Higher-Than-Expected Benefits Costs
Benefits costs exceeded forecasts by $12 million, driven by higher pharmacy costs and an increase in incurred but not reported claims. Benefits cost per covered employee increased 9.6% year-over-year.
Decline in Gross Profit Per Worksite Employee
Gross profit per worksite employee in Q2 2025 was $240 per month, down from $282 in Q2 2024, impacted by higher benefits costs and the absence of favorable health care claims development.
Lower Than Expected Financial Results
Q2 EPS of $0.26 and adjusted EBITDA of $32 million fell slightly under the low end of the forecasted range, primarily due to higher-than-expected benefits costs.
Company Guidance
During the Insperity Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance for both the third quarter and full year 2025. They reported second quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $0.26 and adjusted EBITDA of $32 million, both slightly below their forecasted range due to higher-than-expected benefits costs. Despite these challenges, Insperity maintained strong client retention at 99% per month and experienced a 0.7% increase in the average number of paid worksite employees to 309,115. The company projected full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA between $170 million and $205 million and adjusted EPS ranging from $1.81 to $2.51. For the third quarter, they forecasted adjusted EBITDA between $24 million and $44 million, with adjusted EPS between $0.06 and $0.49, and an average paid worksite employee count of 312,200 to 315,300. Insperity expects worksite employee growth of 1% to 2% over 2024 and highlighted plans to improve profitability in 2026 through pricing increases, plan design changes, and renegotiation of their contract with UnitedHealthcare.

Insperity Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Insperity's financial performance is under pressure with declining profit margins and inconsistent revenue growth. The balance sheet is highly leveraged, posing risks if revenue and profitability do not improve. However, positive free cash flow generation is a key strength, albeit at reduced levels.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Insperity has shown a mixed performance in its income statement metrics. The gross profit margin for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 20%, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue. However, the net profit margin has declined from previous years, with TTM standing at about 1.24%, compared to 1.38% in 2024 and 2.64% in 2023. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decrease in TTM compared to 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also seen a downturn, highlighting pressure on operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio due to low stockholders' equity. TTM shows a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 3.66, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity is positive, but the low equity base inflates these figures, with TTM ROE around 52.94%. The equity ratio is weak, standing at about 5.56% for TTM, suggesting limited asset protection by equity.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns and strengths. TTM free cash flow has significantly decreased compared to previous periods, posing a challenge for liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is 0.73, indicating that net income is not fully translating into cash flow. However, the company maintained positive free cash flow, albeit reduced, which is crucial for ongoing operations and investments.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.64B6.58B6.49B5.94B4.97B4.29B
Gross Profit1.02B1.05B1.04B1.01B820.10M806.85M
EBITDA158.00M198.00M294.92M300.29M214.32M228.47M
Net Income63.00M91.00M171.38M179.35M124.08M138.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.14B2.60B2.12B2.04B1.75B1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments568.00M1.05B708.78M765.90M607.60M589.38M
Total Debt436.00M435.00M426.89M424.99M433.59M433.69M
Total Liabilities2.02B2.50B2.03B1.96B1.75B1.54B
Stockholders Equity119.00M97.00M93.62M81.28M-1.77M44.13M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.00M482.00M158.37M317.36M227.25M248.19M
Operating Cash Flow46.00M520.00M198.49M347.69M260.15M346.35M
Investing Cash Flow-39.00M-38.00M-21.73M-32.12M-31.01M-98.62M
Financing Cash Flow-139.00M-173.00M-155.01M-141.15M-208.07M-53.58M

Insperity Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price52.28
Price Trends
50DMA
58.00
Negative
100DMA
66.08
Negative
200DMA
72.72
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.31
Positive
RSI
41.08
Neutral
STOCH
66.21
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NSP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 52.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.74, below the 50-day MA of 58.00, and below the 200-day MA of 72.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.21 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NSP.

Insperity Risk Analysis

Insperity disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Insperity reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Insperity Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$3.80B15.9313.49%2.35%-1.23%44.06%
73
Outperform
$1.20B22.9725.36%0.70%9.48%11.62%
68
Neutral
$3.21B22.53139.13%1.59%1.39%-50.47%
63
Neutral
€15.32B19.861.57%3.12%4.81%5.42%
61
Neutral
$3.69B20.7112.75%6.17%-6.95%-41.84%
58
Neutral
$1.91B18.36-0.78%5.48%-3.79%-138.56%
54
Neutral
$1.97B49.9131.50%4.59%2.40%-75.66%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NSP
Insperity
51.12
-39.13
-43.36%
BBSI
Barrett Business Services
46.03
11.65
33.89%
KFY
Korn Ferry
72.46
4.95
7.33%
MAN
ManpowerGroup
41.27
-26.71
-39.29%
RHI
Robert Half
36.33
-22.67
-38.42%
TNET
TriNet Group
65.35
-29.31
-30.96%

Insperity Corporate Events

Stock BuybackDividendsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Insperity Reports Q2 2025 Results with Revenue Growth
Neutral
Aug 1, 2025

On August 1, 2025, Insperity reported its second-quarter results for 2025, revealing a 3% increase in revenues to $1.7 billion despite a net loss of $5 million. The company experienced a 14% decrease in gross profit due to higher benefits costs, but maintained a positive outlook for future growth, highlighting its strategic partnership with Workday and plans for accelerated growth in 2026. Insperity’s average paid worksite employees increased by 1% year-over-year, and the company returned $64 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in the first half of 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSP) stock is a Buy with a $85.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Insperity stock, see the NSP Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Insperity Approves Performance-Based Awards for Executives
Positive
Jul 1, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Insperity‘s Board of Directors approved special performance-based equity awards for its CEO, Paul J. Sarvadi, and COO, A. Steve Arizpe, to align with the company’s pay-for-performance philosophy and incentivize long-term stockholder value. These awards are tied to significant stock price appreciation and are part of a strategy to retain key executives during a transformative phase, which includes launching a joint HR solution with Workday, aimed at expanding Insperity’s market reach and enhancing growth and profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSP) stock is a Buy with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Insperity stock, see the NSP Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Insperity Holds 2025 Annual Meeting in Kingwood
Neutral
May 27, 2025

On May 20, 2025, Insperity held its 2025 Annual Meeting at its corporate headquarters in Kingwood, Texas. The meeting included the election of Class III directors, approval of executive compensation, an amendment to the incentive plan, and the ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, reflecting shareholder support for the company’s strategic and operational decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSP) stock is a Buy with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Insperity stock, see the NSP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 05, 2025