Insperity Inc (NSP)
NYSE:NSP
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Insperity
(NYSE:NSP)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$27.00
â–²(7.87% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/21/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—margin collapse, thin capitalization with high leverage, and sharply negative operating/free cash flow. Technicals also remain unfavorable with the stock trading well below major moving averages. Offsetting these, valuation gets some support from a very high dividend yield, and the latest earnings call included guidance for a notable 2026 earnings rebound, though near-term execution and healthcare-cost risks remain significant.
Positive Factors
Recurring PEO revenue model and scale
The PEO co-employment model produces recurring, payroll-linked fees that scale with client headcount and compensation. That recurring fee base and pass-through billing create predictable revenue streams and high operating leverage as scale improves retention and benefits administration economics.
Negative Factors
Thin capitalization and elevated leverage
A very thin equity base and high debt-to-equity ratio materially reduce financial flexibility. Persisting operating weakness could force additional borrowing or equity issuance, increase covenant and refinancing risk, and constrain the company's ability to invest or absorb further shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring PEO revenue model and scale
The PEO co-employment model produces recurring, payroll-linked fees that scale with client headcount and compensation. That recurring fee base and pass-through billing create predictable revenue streams and high operating leverage as scale improves retention and benefits administration economics.
Read all positive factors
Insperity (NSP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$944.34M
Dividend Yield6.37%
Average Volume (3M)1.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth3.19%
EPS Growth-86.21%
CountryUS
Employees306,023
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryStaffing & Employment Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.60
Shares Outstanding37,728,424
10 Day Avg. Volume836,313
30 Day Avg. Volume1,163,977
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.95
Price to Book (P/B)31.99
Price to Sales (P/S)0.22
P/FCF Ratio-4.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.78
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.18
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$42.33Price Target Upside69.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)2.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.26B
Insperity Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Insperity, Inc. provides human resources (HR) and business solutions to improve business performance for small and medium-sized businesses. The company offers its HR services through its Workforce Optimization and Workforce Synchronization solutio...
How the Company Makes Money
Insperity generates most of its revenue through its PEO services, where client companies enter a co-employment arrangement and Insperity provides an integrated package of HR-related services. Under this model, Insperity bills clients based largely...
Insperity Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down where Insperity earns sales across regions, highlighting geographic strengths and concentration risk. Regional trends reveal growth opportunities, exposure to local economic cycles or regulatory changes, and where the company’s sales and marketing efforts are most effective.
Breaks down where Insperity earns sales across regions, highlighting geographic strengths and concentration risk. Regional trends reveal growth opportunities, exposure to local economic cycles or regulatory changes, and where the company’s sales and marketing efforts are most effective.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyInsperity Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear, concrete actions and a constructive outlook for 2026 (notably meaningful adjusted EBITDA and EPS recovery guidance, HRScale rollout progress, cost reductions and improved pricing) against significant near-term challenges (sharp 2025 profitability declines, elevated healthcare claims, lower starting paid worksite employee counts and some short-term sales impacts from margin actions). Management provided a detailed remediation plan and optimistic multi-year thesis centered on margin recovery and HRScale-driven future growth, but near-term risks and recent negative results temper enthusiasm.Positive Updates
2026 Profitability Guidance Shows Significant Improvement
Management forecasted full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $170M to $230M (up ~30% to 76% vs. 2025) and adjusted EPS of $1.69 to $2.72 (up ~64% to 164% vs. 2025), indicating expectation of meaningful profitability recovery.
Negative Updates
Material Profitability Declines in 2025
For the full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA declined 51% to $131M and adjusted EPS declined 71% to $1.03. Q4 2025 results were negative on both adjusted EPS (-$0.60) and adjusted EBITDA (-$13M), reflecting significant near-term profitability pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
2026 Profitability Guidance Shows Significant Improvement
Management forecasted full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $170M to $230M (up ~30% to 76% vs. 2025) and adjusted EPS of $1.69 to $2.72 (up ~64% to 164% vs. 2025), indicating expectation of meaningful profitability recovery.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company provided detailed 2025 results and 2026 guidance: Q4 adjusted EPS was negative $0.60 (adjusted EPS excluding a $2.8M sales-office consolidation was negative $0.54) and Q4 adjusted EBITDA was negative $13M (minus $11M excl. consolidation); average paid worksite employees (WSE) in Q4 were 312,377 (up 1.1% YoY), WSE from new clients rose 6% YoY, and Q4 monthly client retention averaged 99%; gross profit per WSE was $183/month; Q4 operating expenses fell 6% YoY but included a $2.8M consolidation charge; Q4 HRScale investment was $15M ($10M op ex, $5M capitalized) versus $19M a year ago; dividends paid were $22M in Q4 and $90M for the year, and the company repurchased 232,000 shares for $19M, ending the quarter with $57M of adjusted cash; full-year 2025 average WSE was just over 310,000 (+1%), adjusted EBITDA was $131M (down 51%) and adjusted EPS was $1.03 (down 71%), with $59M invested in HRScale for the year ($48M expensed, $11M capitalized). For 2026 the company forecasts Q1 average WSE of 303,000–305,000 (down 0.3%–1% YoY) and full-year average WSE down 1.5% to up 1.5% (noting a ~3% headwind from a lower starting WSE), expects 6,000–8,000 paid WSE on HRScale by year-end, plans ~$20M of year-over-year operating expense savings (excluding a $9M restructuring charge) partly from eliminating ~4% of non‑sales headcount, expects HRScale-related operating expenses to be about $12M lower than 2025, anticipates CapEx of roughly $40M–$45M, a ~34% adjusted tax rate and ~$7M lower interest income, and is guiding full-year adjusted EBITDA of $170M–$230M (up 30%–76%) and adjusted EPS of $1.69–$2.72 (up 64%–164%), with Q1 adjusted EBITDA $81M–$111M and Q1 adjusted EPS $1.03–$1.50; the credit facility was amended to $750M capacity (available capacity $380M at 12/31/25) and maximum leverage was increased to 3.75x EBITDA.Insperity Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.81B | 6.58B | 6.49B | 5.94B | 4.97B |
| Gross Profit | 900.00M | 1.05B | 1.04B | 1.01B | 820.10M |
| EBITDA | 35.00M | 198.00M | 295.00M | 300.29M | 214.32M |
| Net Income | -7.00M | 91.00M | 171.00M | 179.35M | 124.08M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.20B | 2.60B | 2.12B | 2.04B | 1.75B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 660.00M | 1.05B | 709.00M | 765.90M | 607.60M |
| Total Debt | 435.00M | 435.00M | 427.00M | 424.99M | 433.59M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.16B | 2.50B | 2.03B | 1.96B | 1.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 46.00M | 97.00M | 94.00M | 81.28M | -1.77M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -309.00M | 482.00M | 158.37M | 317.36M | 227.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -278.00M | 520.00M | 198.49M | 347.69M | 260.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -31.00M | -38.00M | -21.73M | -32.12M | -31.01M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -90.00M | -173.00M | -155.01M | -141.15M | -208.07M |
Insperity Technical Analysis
Negative
25.03
Price Trends
26.61
Negative
32.28
Negative
40.56
Negative
Market Momentum
0.30
Negative
45.77
Neutral
15.71
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NSP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.58, below the 50-day MA of 26.61, and below the 200-day MA of 40.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NSP.
Insperity Risk Analysis
Insperity disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Insperity reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Insperity Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.14B | 13.73 | 13.94% | 2.89% | 3.65% | 5.71% | |
65 Neutral | $713.00M | 16.87 | 23.66% | 0.88% | 9.64% | 9.93% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $2.39B | 20.45 | 10.26% | 8.65% | -7.27% | -43.88% | |
51 Neutral | $1.25B | -104.17 | -0.65% | 4.96% | -2.44% | -156.01% | |
51 Neutral | $1.64B | 18.31 | 185.63% | 1.81% | 0.99% | -47.02% | |
45 Neutral | $944.34M | -210.19 | -7.69% | 6.37% | 3.19% | -86.21% |
* Industrials Sector Average
NSP
Insperity
25.03
-54.71
-68.61%
BBSI
Barrett Business Services
28.29
-11.35
-28.64%
KFY
Korn Ferry
60.53
-2.09
-3.33%
MAN
ManpowerGroup
26.93
-22.63
-45.66%
RHI
Robert Half
23.59
-22.70
-49.04%
TNET
TriNet Group
34.63
-43.47
-55.66%
Insperity Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Insperity Announces Realignment Plan and Workforce Reductions
Negative
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, Insperity announced a Realignment Plan that will eliminate about 4% of its non-sales roles as part of an internal reorganization aimed at boosting efficiency and sharpening focus on key business areas, with an estimated $9 mi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.