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Insperity Inc (NSP)
NYSE:NSP

Insperity (NSP) AI Stock Analysis

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Insperity

(NYSE:NSP)

Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$64.00
â–²(4.30%Upside)
The overall stock score reflects financial challenges, including high leverage and reduced profit margins. Technical indicators signal bearish momentum, while valuation suggests potential overvaluation. Earnings call sentiment was mixed, with positive client retention offset by cost concerns.
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Hiring Trends
Insperity has encountered the dual headwinds of softer SMB hiring and normalization from pandemic pull-forward of growth.
Investment Uncertainty
The $150M Workday investment presents new uncertainty in the model, and analysts argue the payback period may occur outside the medium-term investment horizon.
Medical Costs
Elevated medical cost trend in 2025 could spur pricing sensitivity, which presents lower margin for error.

Insperity (NSP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Insperity Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionInsperity, Inc. provides human resources (HR) and business solutions to improve business performance for small and medium-sized businesses. The company offers its HR services through its Workforce Optimization and Workforce Synchronization solutions that include a range of human resources functions, such as payroll and employment administration, employee benefits, workers' compensation, government compliance, performance management, and training and development services. It also provides Insperity Premier, a cloud-based human capital management platform that offers professional employer organization HR outsourcing solutions to its clients; personnel record management services; and employer liability management services, as well as solutions for middle market. In addition, the company offers MarketPlace, an e-commerce portal that offers a range of products and services; and Workforce Acceleration, a human capital management and payroll services solution; time and attendance; performance management; organizational planning; recruiting; employment screening; retirement; and insurance services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through 85 sales offices in the United States. The company was formerly known as Administaff, Inc. and changed its name to Insperity, Inc. in March 2011. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Kingwood, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyInsperity makes money primarily through its comprehensive suite of HR services offered to small and medium-sized businesses. The company generates revenue by charging service fees to its clients, typically on a per-employee basis. These fees cover a range of services including payroll processing, benefits administration, and compliance support. A significant portion of Insperity's revenue is also derived from insurance-related activities, where it earns margins on premiums for health and workers' compensation insurance plans provided to clients. Additionally, Insperity benefits from economies of scale and strategic partnerships with insurance carriers and other vendors, allowing it to offer competitive pricing and maintain profitability.

Insperity Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -21.21%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
While there were significant achievements in client retention and progress in the Workday partnership, financial performance was adversely affected by higher-than-expected benefits costs and macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to reduced guidance.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Client Retention Success
Client retention achieved 91% in Q1 2025, indicating strong client satisfaction and retention strategy, up from 88% in Q1 of 2024.
Workday Strategic Partnership Progress
Significant progress in Workday partnership, including a successful launch of the corporate Workday platform and the development of a go-to-market plan targeting mid-market businesses.
Positive Growth in Paid Worksite Employees
The average number of paid worksite employees increased by 0.7% over Q1 of 2024 to 306,023, indicating positive growth momentum.
Dividend and Share Repurchase
Returned capital to shareholders with $23 million in cash dividends and repurchased 224,000 shares of stock at a cost of $19 million in Q1.
Negative Updates
Higher-than-Expected Benefits Costs
Adjusted EPS of $1.57 and adjusted EBITDA of $102 million fell below guidance due to benefits costs exceeding budget by $28 million, driven by increased medical claims.
Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Delayed or canceled client starts due to economic policy uncertainties, with 66% of clients expecting negative economic impacts, up from 29% in January.
Reduced Financial Guidance
Lowered full-year guidance with adjusted EBITDA now expected to be $190 million to $245 million and adjusted EPS to be $2.23 to $3.28 due to increased benefits costs and economic uncertainty.
Company Guidance
During the Insperity First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, Jim Allison provided financial guidance for the second quarter and full year 2025, highlighting several key metrics. For Q1 2025, adjusted EPS was reported at $1.57 and adjusted EBITDA at $102 million, both falling short of guidance due to higher benefits costs. The average number of paid worksite employees increased by 0.7% to 306,023, although slightly below the expected range. Client retention was strong at 91%, while gross profit per worksite employee declined to $338 per month, down from $378 in Q1 2024, driven by an 8.4% increase in benefits cost per covered employee. The company adjusted its full-year forecast, projecting worksite employee growth of 0.5% to 3% and benefits cost per covered employee of 6.5% to 7.5%, up from the initial 5% to 6.5%. Operating expenses are expected to decline slightly each quarter, with full-year adjusted EBITDA ranging from $190 million to $245 million and adjusted EPS from $2.23 to $3.28. For Q2, average paid worksite employees are forecasted to be between 308,000 and 311,000, with adjusted EBITDA between $33 million and $53 million, and adjusted EPS ranging from $0.29 to $0.67.

Insperity Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Insperity's financial performance is mixed. Profitability is under pressure with declining margins and inconsistent revenue growth. The balance sheet is highly leveraged, posing potential risks. However, positive free cash flow is a bright spot, despite being reduced.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Insperity has shown a mixed performance in its income statement metrics. The gross profit margin for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 20%, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue. However, the net profit margin has declined from previous years, with TTM standing at about 1.24%, compared to 1.38% in 2024 and 2.64% in 2023. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a decrease in TTM compared to 2024. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also seen a downturn, highlighting pressure on operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a relatively high debt-to-equity ratio due to low stockholders' equity. TTM shows a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 3.66, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity is positive, but the low equity base inflates these figures, with TTM ROE around 52.94%. The equity ratio is weak, standing at about 5.56% for TTM, suggesting limited asset protection by equity.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals some concerns and strengths. TTM free cash flow has significantly decreased compared to previous periods, posing a challenge for liquidity. The operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is 0.73, indicating that net income is not fully translating into cash flow. However, the company maintained positive free cash flow, albeit reduced, which is crucial for ongoing operations and investments.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.64B6.58B6.49B5.94B4.97B4.29B
Gross Profit1.02B1.05B1.04B1.01B820.10M806.85M
EBITDA158.00M198.00M294.92M300.29M214.32M228.47M
Net Income63.00M91.00M171.38M179.35M124.08M138.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.14B2.60B2.12B2.04B1.75B1.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments568.00M1.05B708.78M765.90M607.60M589.38M
Total Debt436.00M435.00M426.89M424.99M433.59M433.69M
Total Liabilities2.02B2.50B2.03B1.96B1.75B1.54B
Stockholders Equity119.00M97.00M93.62M81.28M-1.77M44.13M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow7.00M482.00M158.37M317.36M227.25M248.19M
Operating Cash Flow46.00M520.00M198.49M347.69M260.15M346.35M
Investing Cash Flow-39.00M-38.00M-21.73M-32.12M-31.01M-98.62M
Financing Cash Flow-139.00M-173.00M-155.01M-141.15M-208.07M-53.58M

Insperity Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price61.36
Price Trends
50DMA
64.97
Negative
100DMA
75.10
Negative
200DMA
77.09
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.40
Negative
RSI
44.75
Neutral
STOCH
70.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NSP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 61.36 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.86, below the 50-day MA of 64.97, and below the 200-day MA of 77.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NSP.

Insperity Risk Analysis

Insperity disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Insperity reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Insperity Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
KFKFY
78
Outperform
$3.84B16.0813.49%2.57%-1.23%44.06%
77
Outperform
$1.10B21.9125.86%0.75%8.41%7.93%
63
Neutral
$3.60B22.19162.14%1.49%1.50%-44.95%
RHRHI
61
Neutral
$4.38B21.4014.49%5.48%-7.81%-40.22%
58
Neutral
$1.34B4.24-2.93%7.38%3.67%-51.13%
NSNSP
57
Neutral
$2.31B37.1248.65%3.89%1.90%-60.33%
MAMAN
57
Neutral
$2.05B19.205.19%3.27%-5.52%133.51%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NSP
Insperity
61.36
-24.99
-28.94%
BBSI
Barrett Business Services
43.17
10.83
33.49%
KFY
Korn Ferry
73.98
9.13
14.08%
MAN
ManpowerGroup
44.26
-23.41
-34.59%
RHI
Robert Half
42.85
-19.02
-30.74%
TNET
TriNet Group
74.36
-22.80
-23.47%

Insperity Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Insperity Approves Performance-Based Awards for Executives
Positive
Jul 1, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Insperity‘s Board of Directors approved special performance-based equity awards for its CEO, Paul J. Sarvadi, and COO, A. Steve Arizpe, to align with the company’s pay-for-performance philosophy and incentivize long-term stockholder value. These awards are tied to significant stock price appreciation and are part of a strategy to retain key executives during a transformative phase, which includes launching a joint HR solution with Workday, aimed at expanding Insperity’s market reach and enhancing growth and profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSP) stock is a Buy with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Insperity stock, see the NSP Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Insperity Holds 2025 Annual Meeting in Kingwood
Neutral
May 27, 2025

On May 20, 2025, Insperity held its 2025 Annual Meeting at its corporate headquarters in Kingwood, Texas. The meeting included the election of Class III directors, approval of executive compensation, an amendment to the incentive plan, and the ratification of Ernst & Young LLP as the independent accounting firm for 2025, reflecting shareholder support for the company’s strategic and operational decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (NSP) stock is a Buy with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Insperity stock, see the NSP Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025