ManpowerGroup (MAN) AI Stock Analysis

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ManpowerGroup

(NYSE:MAN)

Rating:57Neutral

Price Target:―

ManpowerGroup's overall stock score of 57 reflects its mixed financial performance and challenging market conditions. Strengths include moderate revenue growth and a strong dividend yield, but profitability and cash flow issues, coupled with technical weaknesses and cautious earnings guidance, weigh heavily on the score. The company needs to navigate geopolitical uncertainties and improve operational efficiencies to enhance its stock performance.

Positive Factors

Defense spending

Announced defense spending initiatives in Europe could provide a tailwind to the company’s manufacturing-heavy footprint in the region.

Regional performance

In addition to continued strength in Latin America and Asia, the U.S. Manpower brand rebounded nicely to 7% days-adjusted growth.

Trade policy

Most clients are optimistic that the 'trade wars' will be modified, potentially leading to hiring once again.

Negative Factors

Dividend reduction

MAN announced it was reducing its semi-annual dividend by 53% to $0.72, citing the 'current environment and related payout and yield ratios.'

Earnings guidance

Guidance for margins and EPS was disappointing, with a drag from softness in higher-margin businesses like permanent placement.

European exposure

MAN's valuation historically has been negatively affected by its European exposure and greater recessionary fears in Europe.

ManpowerGroup (MAN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.98B

Dividend Yield7.56%

Average Volume (3M)882.86K

Price to Earnings (P/E)18.5

Beta (1Y)0.85

Revenue Growth-5.52%

EPS Growth133.51%

CountryUS

Employees26,700

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength90

IndustryStaffing & Employment Services

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.44

Shares Outstanding46,282,436

10 Day Avg. Volume775,687

30 Day Avg. Volume882,864

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.59

Price to Book (P/B)1.78

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio14.66

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.51

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.08

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.64

Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.65

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$47.80

Price Target Upside11.94% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering8

ManpowerGroup Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionManpowerGroup Inc. is a global leader in workforce solutions, providing a range of services to help businesses manage their staffing needs. The company operates in multiple sectors including temporary staffing, permanent recruitment, and workforce management. Through its family of brands, including Manpower, Experis, and Talent Solutions, ManpowerGroup offers a comprehensive suite of services to find, assess, and develop talent for organizations across industries.

How the Company Makes MoneyManpowerGroup makes money primarily through its staffing and workforce solutions services. The company generates revenue by supplying temporary and permanent staffing to businesses, charging fees for the placement and use of its personnel. Additionally, ManpowerGroup earns income from consulting services related to workforce management, talent assessment, and development. Key revenue streams include temporary staffing, which involves providing employees on a contractual basis, and permanent recruitment, where the company charges businesses for successfully placing candidates in long-term positions. Partnerships with organizations across diverse industries and its global reach contribute significantly to its earnings, allowing the company to capitalize on varying market demands and economic conditions.

ManpowerGroup Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 17, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -12.25%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 22, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Negative

The earnings call highlights some positive developments in specific regions and segments, such as growth in the Americas and APME, and advancements in technology and AI. However, these are overshadowed by significant revenue declines, challenges in Northern Europe, and increased tax charges in France. The overall sentiment is cautious due to the uncertainty surrounding trade policies and weak permanent recruitment trends.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth in Key Regions

The Americas segment saw a 5% revenue increase year-over-year on a constant currency basis, with the U.S. reporting a 2% increase. Italy also experienced a 5% revenue increase in constant currency.

Strong Performance in APME

Asia Pacific Middle East segment revenues increased by 7% in organic constant currency, with Japan growing 9% on a days-adjusted constant currency basis.

U.S. Manpower Brand Improvement

The U.S. Manpower brand reported a 7% increase in revenue on a days-adjusted basis, indicating strong market performance and improvement from previous quarters.

MSP Business Growth

The Managed Service Provider (MSP) business recorded a strong double-digit revenue increase compared to the prior year.

Technological Advancements

Continued investment in technology and AI, with plans to showcase innovations at VivaTech in Paris. The company is leveraging AI for workforce insights and improving candidate experience.

Negative Updates

Overall Revenue Decline

First quarter revenue was $4.1 billion, down 5% year-over-year in constant currency. Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 32% year-over-year in constant currency.

Decline in Permanent Recruitment

Permanent recruitment softened further, contributing to weaker gross profit margins, with a year-over-year decrease of 8% in the first quarter.

Challenges in Northern Europe

Northern Europe segment revenue declined by 14% in constant currency, with significant restructuring charges, particularly in the Nordics, Belgium, and the U.K.

Gross Profit Decrease

Consolidated gross profit decreased by 6% on an organic constant currency basis year-over-year, with notable declines in Experis and Talent Solutions.

Increased Tax Charges in France

Higher tax charges from a France law change imposed for the fiscal year 2025 impacted earnings, increasing the global effective tax rate.

Company Guidance

In the first quarter of 2025, ManpowerGroup reported revenue of $4.1 billion, a 5% decline year-over-year in constant currency, while adjusted EBITDA stood at $52 million, down 32% in constant currency. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin was 1.3%, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.44, reflecting a 51% decrease year-over-year in constant currency. Despite challenges, particularly in Europe and North America, the company's Latin America and Asia Pacific Middle East segments showed positive demand trends. ManpowerGroup's second-quarter guidance anticipates earnings per share between $0.65 and $0.75, with a constant currency revenue decrease of 3% to 7%, and an estimated effective tax rate of 46.5%, impacted by a one-year French tax increase. The company continues to focus on cost management, technology investments, and strategic brand alignment to navigate the uncertain economic environment.

ManpowerGroup Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ManpowerGroup presents a mixed financial picture with moderate revenue growth and stable leverage, but struggles with profitability and cash flow generation. The company maintains a balanced debt position, yet its returns on equity and cash flow metrics suggest potential areas for improvement. Overall, a focus on enhancing operational efficiencies and cash management could strengthen financial stability.

Income Statement

Positive

ManpowerGroup has shown moderate revenue growth with some fluctuations. The TTM gross profit margin is 28.78%, indicating healthy profitability. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 1.06%, reflecting some challenges in controlling costs or competitive pricing pressure. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also modest at 2.55% and 3.11% respectively, suggesting operational efficiencies can be improved.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70, indicating a balanced leverage position. The equity ratio of 26.16% shows a reasonable proportion of assets financed by equity. However, the return on equity is low at 5.28%, suggesting the company is not generating high returns on shareholders' equity.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow performance is below average with a negative TTM free cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.36, indicating that net income is not translating effectively into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, further highlighting challenges in cash generation.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
10.50B	17.85B	18.91B	19.83B	20.72B	18.00B
	Gross Profit
3.02B	3.09B	3.36B	3.57B	3.41B	2.82B
	EBIT
268.30M	306.00M	255.80M	581.70M	585.40M	262.70M
	EBITDA
359.20M	433.40M	374.20M	688.60M	680.30M	267.30M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
111.00M	145.10M	88.80M	373.80M	382.40M	23.80M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.03B	509.40M	581.30M	639.00M	847.80M	1.57B
	Total Assets
9.22B	8.20B	8.83B	9.13B	9.83B	9.35B
	Total Debt
1.41B	1.23B	1.43B	1.25B	1.39B	1.45B
	Net Debt
384.30M	722.40M	844.70M	614.10M	546.30M	-119.90M
	Total Liabilities
6.46B	6.07B	6.60B	6.67B	7.30B	6.89B
	Stockholders Equity
2.74B	2.13B	2.22B	2.45B	2.52B	2.44B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-13.00M	258.10M	270.00M	347.70M	580.60M	885.70M
	Operating Cash Flow
40.00M	309.20M	348.20M	423.30M	644.80M	936.40M
	Investing Cash Flow
-73.10M	-68.20M	-74.10M	-85.30M	-987.00M	-42.40M
	Financing Cash Flow
-179.20M	-282.40M	-349.50M	-482.10M	-283.70M	-435.20M

ManpowerGroup Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price42.70

Price Trends

50DMA

44.14

Negative

100DMA

50.73

Negative

200DMA

56.96

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.80

Negative

RSI

52.29

Neutral

STOCH

52.71

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 42.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.77, below the 50-day MA of 44.14, and below the 200-day MA of 56.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MAN.

ManpowerGroup Risk Analysis

ManpowerGroup disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ManpowerGroup reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

ManpowerGroup Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (66)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KFY	77 Outperform	$3.62B	15.08	13.92%	2.28%	-3.27%	62.57%
BBSI	75 Outperform	$1.09B	21.66	25.86%	0.76%	8.41%	7.93%
TNET	69 Neutral	$3.96B	24.42	162.14%	1.24%	1.50%	-44.95%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$4.49B	12.34	5.40%	248.65%	4.13%	-12.33%
RHI	62 Neutral	$4.53B	22.16	14.49%	5.03%	-7.81%	-40.22%
MAN	57 Neutral	$1.98B	18.52	5.19%	7.56%	-5.52%	133.51%
NSP	53 Neutral	$2.35B	37.86	48.65%	3.82%	1.90%	-60.33%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

MAN

ManpowerGroup

42.70

-27.79

-39.42%

BBSI

Barrett Business Services

42.29

9.31

28.23%

NSP

Insperity

62.57

-29.40

-31.97%

KFY

Korn Ferry

70.15

8.19

13.22%

RHI

Robert Half

44.76

-16.52

-26.96%

TNET

TriNet Group

81.85

-21.39

-20.72%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.