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ManpowerGroup (MAN)
NYSE:MAN
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ManpowerGroup
(NYSE:MAN)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
â–²(1.84% Upside)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (net loss, higher leverage, and negative operating/free cash flow). Offsetting factors include strong technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD) and a supportive—but cautious—earnings outlook suggesting stabilization, while valuation is mixed due to a negative P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
AI and Technology Adoption
Broad deployment of PowerSuite and scaled AI recruiter tools creates a durable productivity and differentiation advantage. Higher placement rates and faster workforce insights can lower SG&A per placement, increase client stickiness, and support margin recovery over multiple quarters.
Core Brand Stabilization and US Growth
Consistent growth in the core Manpower brand, particularly six consecutive US quarters, indicates resilient demand for temporary staffing. This stabilization supports recurring revenue, improves utilization of existing networks, and strengthens cash generation potential versus more volatile permanent recruitment.
Debt Refinancing and Liquidity Actions
Extending the revolver tenor and issuing longer-dated notes materially reduces near-term refinancing risk and secures liquidity to fund transformation. This structural financing improves runway for technology and cost programs and lowers immediate rollover pressure on the balance sheet.
Negative Factors
Negative Operating and Free Cash Flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow undermines internal funding for investments and dividends, increasing reliance on external financing. Over several quarters this can constrain capital allocation, limit pace of transformation, and elevate sensitivity to cyclical slowdowns in staffing demand.
Declining Revenue and Profitability
Ongoing revenue declines and negative profit margins erode operating leverage and ROE, making it harder to cover fixed costs and fund strategic initiatives. Without sustained top-line recovery, margin restoration is difficult, prolonging weakness in cash generation and shareholder returns.
Concentrated Market and Segment Weakness
Large declines in a major market (Germany) and in higher-margin segment Experis indicate structural demand gaps in tech and permanent recruitment. These concentrated weaknesses can depress consolidated margins and require product repositioning or geographic diversification to restore sustainable growth.
ManpowerGroup (MAN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.68B
Dividend Yield4.96%
Average Volume (3M)873.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth-2.44%
EPS Growth-156.01%
CountryUS
Employees26,700
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryStaffing & Employment Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.92
Shares Outstanding46,297,180
10 Day Avg. Volume1,060,550
30 Day Avg. Volume873,154
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.95
Price to Book (P/B)0.67
Price to Sales (P/S)0.08
P/FCF Ratio-8.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.72
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.50Price Target Upside8.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
ManpowerGroup Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionManpowerGroup Inc. provides workforce solutions and services in the Americas, Southern Europe, Northern Europe, and the Asia Pacific Middle East region. The company offers recruitment services, including permanent, temporary, and contract recruitment of professionals, as well as administrative and industrial positions under the Manpower and Experis brands. It also offers various assessment services; training and development services; career management; and outsourcing services related to human resources functions primarily in the areas of large-scale recruiting and workforce-intensive initiatives. In addition, the company provides workforce consulting services; contingent staffing and permanent recruitment services; professional resourcing and project-based solutions in information technology, engineering, and finance fields; solutions in the areas of organizational efficiency, individual development, and career mobility; and recruitment process outsourcing, TAPFIN managed, and talent based outsourcing services, as well as Proservia services in the areas of digital services market and IT infrastructure sector. It operates through a network of approximately 2,200 offices in 75 countries and territories. The company was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
How the Company Makes MoneyManpowerGroup generates revenue primarily through its staffing and recruitment services, which include temporary and permanent placements for a diverse range of industries. The company earns money by charging clients a fee based on the salaries of the placed candidates or a percentage of the contract value for temporary staff. Additionally, ManpowerGroup offers managed services and recruitment process outsourcing (RPO), which contribute to its revenue through service contracts with organizations looking to streamline their hiring processes. The company also engages in partnerships with businesses to deliver customized workforce solutions, further enhancing its revenue potential. Economic trends, labor market conditions, and demand for skilled labor significantly impact ManpowerGroup's earnings, making its revenue model sensitive to fluctuations in the employment landscape.
ManpowerGroup Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but stabilizing picture: several clear signs of sequential improvement (organic revenue growth in Q4, brand-level stabilization, strong performance in Italy and Japan, SG&A reductions, scaled AI initiatives and improved Q4 cash flow) offset by substantial full-year declines in adjusted EPS (‑38%) and EBITDA (‑20%), continued weakness in certain markets (Germany, Experis) and timing-related cash flow and margin pressures. Management emphasized cost discipline, execution on technology (PowerSuite/AI) and a path to margin recovery while acknowledging near-term headwinds and ongoing transformation costs. Given comparable weight of positive operational momentum and material legacy declines, the tone is constructive but cautious.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Fourth Quarter Revenue Growth and System-Wide Size
Reported Q4 revenue was $4.7 billion, representing organic constant currency growth of 2%; system-wide revenue (including franchise) was $5.1 billion.
Sequential Improvement in Demand Indicators
Company noted sequential improvement across key markets (US, France), with Manpower brand growing 5% in the quarter (improved from 3%) and six consecutive quarters of growth in the US Manpower brand.
Adjusted EPS Above Guidance
Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.92, $0.09 above the guidance midpoint; reported EPS was $0.64.
SG&A Discipline and Cost Reduction
Adjusted SG&A declined 4% on a constant currency basis (3% organic constant currency decline), reflecting structural cost reductions and tighter discretionary spend; adjusted SG&A represented 14.4% of revenue in Q4.
Profitability Improvements in Key Regions
Northern Europe delivered positive operating profit for the first time in five quarters; Italy outperformed with Q4 revenue up 7% (days adjusted) and an OUP margin of 6.7%.
AI and Technology Momentum
PowerSuite now covers ~90% of the business; front-office adoption ~87%, back-office ~75%. AI recruiter toolkit scaled to 12+ markets and drove a 7% increase in placement rates; SoFi.ai pilots show workforce insights 10x faster and 99% accurate.
Strong Finish to Q4 Cash Flow
Q4 free cash flow was a positive $168 million, contributing to a stronger year-end liquidity picture despite a full-year timing-related outflow.
Asia Pacific and Japan Strength
APME revenues increased 6% organic constant currency in Q4; Japan grew 7% (days adjusted) and the region set an all-time profitability record in 2025.
Brand-Level Stabilization
Experis and Talent Solutions both showed sequential improvement versus Q3: Experis revenue decline narrowed to -6% (from -7%), Talent Solutions decline narrowed to -4% (from -8%).
Prudent Balance Sheet Management
Net debt at year-end was $806 million with adjusted gross debt / TTM adjusted EBITDA of 2.7x and total debt / capitalization of 35%; successful refinancing of €500M note completed.
Negative Updates
Full-Year Earnings and EBITDA Declines
Full-year adjusted EPS was $2.97, a constant currency decrease of 38% year over year; full-year adjusted EBITDA was $337 million, a 20% constant currency decline versus prior year; reported EPS for the year was negative $0.29.
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA and Margin Pressure
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $100 million (a 2% constant currency decrease year over year) and adjusted EBITDA margin was 2.1%, a low level that remains below historical peak performance.
Gross Profit and Permanent Recruitment Weakness
Consolidated gross profit declined 3% organic constant currency in Q4 (improvement from -4% in Q3); gross profit margin was 16.3%, slightly below guidance, with permanent recruitment weakness in Europe causing a 30 basis point margin decline.
Large Declines in Specific Markets and Businesses
Germany revenues fell 22% (days adjusted) in Q4 and remains a difficult market; Experis continues to face headwinds (Q4 revenue down 6%); Talent Solutions RPO demand is lower in select US client programs.
Full-Year Free Cash Flow Outflow and DSO Increase
Full-year free cash flow was an outflow of $161 million (vs. inflow of $258 million prior year) due to timing items, and day sales outstanding increased to 55 days from 52, reflecting a higher enterprise client mix.
Restructuring and Transformation Costs
Q4 adjustments included restructuring charges (e.g., $13 million of adjustments; charges in Spain, France, Netherlands, Germany) and ongoing incremental transformation and front-office program expenses being funded/recognized separately.
Near-Term Revenue Headwinds in the US
Company expects an increased rate of year-over-year revenue decline in the US in Q1 2026 due to anniversary of strong healthcare IT project volumes in 2025, though excludes those lumpy projects to normalize trends.
Tax Headwinds and Uncertainties
Guidance incorporates an assumed full-year global tax rate of ~45% driven by a proposed French corporate tax surcharge extension; the US Workers Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC) was not renewed for 2026 and is not included in guidance.
Company Guidance
ManpowerGroup guided Q1 2026 EPS of $0.45–$0.55 (including a $0.06 favorable FX translation benefit), constant‑currency revenue down 1% to up 3% (midpoint +1%) — equivalent to organic days‑adjusted revenue +1% at the midpoint — and adjusted EBITDA margin projected to be about 10 basis points higher year‑over‑year at the midpoint; the company carved out restructuring and incremental front‑office transformation costs from underlying guidance, expects a Q1 effective tax rate of ~43% and a full‑year tax rate of ~45% (would drop to ~43.5–44% if the US WOTC is retroactively enacted), assumes ~47.3 million weighted average shares, and noted the typical seasonal Q4→Q1 earnings decline and disclosed foreign‑currency translation assumptions.ManpowerGroup Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials are pressured: profitability weakened to a net loss in 2025, leverage stepped up meaningfully (debt-to-equity rose to ~1.16x), and operating/free cash flow turned negative after prior-year positivity. Scale and historically positive cash flow are offsets, but the 2025 mix of weaker earnings, higher debt, and cash outflows raises near-term risk.Income Statement
Revenue has been relatively stable recently (2025 up modestly after declines in 2022–2024), but profitability has weakened materially. Operating profitability and margins have compressed versus prior years, culminating in a small net loss in 2025 after positive earnings in 2024–2021. Gross margin has also drifted down from the 2022–2023 level, signaling a tougher pricing/spread environment. Strength: the business still generates meaningful gross profit dollars on a large revenue base; weakness: earnings volatility and thin net margins leave limited cushion in a downturn.42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage increased sharply in 2025, with debt rising to a level above equity (debt-to-equity moved from ~0.6x in 2024 to ~1.16x in 2025), reducing balance-sheet flexibility. Equity is still sizable relative to total assets, but returns to shareholders turned negative in 2025 after mid-single-digit returns in 2024 and stronger returns in 2021–2022. Strength: the company maintains a substantial equity base; weakness: the step-up in debt alongside weaker earnings raises financial risk.45
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash generation deteriorated in 2025, with operating cash flow turning negative and free cash flow also negative, a notable reversal from consistently positive operating and free cash flow in 2020–2024. While free cash flow growth shows a large percentage improvement in 2025, it is coming off a weaker base and remains negative, which limits flexibility for debt reduction and shareholder returns. Strength: historical track record of positive cash flow in prior years; weakness: current-year cash burn and negative operating cash flow are a key near-term concern.30
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 17.96B | 17.85B | 18.91B | 19.83B | 20.72B |
| Gross Profit | 3.00B | 3.09B | 3.36B | 3.57B | 3.41B |
| EBITDA | 274.80M | 433.40M | 374.20M | 688.60M | 680.30M |
| Net Income | -13.30M | 145.10M | 88.80M | 373.80M | 382.40M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.16B | 8.20B | 8.83B | 9.13B | 9.83B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 871.00M | 509.40M | 581.30M | 639.00M | 847.80M |
| Total Debt | 2.39B | 1.23B | 1.43B | 1.36B | 1.39B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.10B | 6.07B | 6.60B | 6.67B | 7.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.06B | 2.13B | 2.22B | 2.45B | 2.52B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -161.40M | 258.10M | 270.00M | 347.70M | 580.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -104.10M | 309.20M | 348.20M | 423.30M | 644.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -59.20M | -68.20M | -74.10M | -85.30M | -987.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 485.50M | -282.40M | -349.50M | -482.10M | -283.70M |
ManpowerGroup Technical Analysis
Positive
36.33
Price Trends
29.46
Positive
31.76
Positive
36.27
Positive
Market Momentum
0.78
Negative
70.34
Negative
63.09
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.78, above the 50-day MA of 29.46, and above the 200-day MA of 36.27, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.34 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.09 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAN.
ManpowerGroup Risk Analysis
ManpowerGroup disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ManpowerGroup reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ManpowerGroup Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $3.63B | 13.64 | 13.89% | 2.89% | 3.65% | 5.71% | |
66 Neutral | $973.74M | 17.63 | 24.08% | 0.88% | 9.64% | 9.93% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $2.73B | 17.50 | 10.02% | 8.65% | -7.27% | -43.88% | |
54 Neutral | $1.61B | 92.38 | 16.04% | 6.37% | 3.19% | -86.21% | |
51 Neutral | $1.68B | -124.04 | -0.64% | 4.96% | -2.44% | -156.01% | |
46 Neutral | $391.00M | -2.42 | -13.11% | 3.53% | 0.46% | -477.90% |
* Industrials Sector Average
MAN
ManpowerGroup
36.33
-21.37
-37.04%
BBSI
Barrett Business Services
38.00
-4.98
-11.59%
NSP
Insperity
42.73
-29.03
-40.45%
KELYA
Kelly Services
10.79
-2.93
-21.37%
KFY
Korn Ferry
69.47
0.64
0.93%
RHI
Robert Half
34.61
-26.40
-43.27%
ManpowerGroup Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
ManpowerGroup Updates Credit Facility and Debt Strategy
Positive
Dec 17, 2025
On December 15, 2025, ManpowerGroup Inc. replaced its previous $600 million revolving credit facility with a new five-year Credit Agreement that maintains the same capacity while including updated allowances for restructuring charges and restrictive financial covenants. Additionally, the company sold €500 million in senior unsecured notes due December 13, 2030, for approximately €497.395 million, designated to redeem existing €500 million 1.750% notes set for full redemption in January 2026, strengthening its financial flexibility and reinforcing its long-term debt management strategy.
The most recent analyst rating on (MAN) stock is a Hold with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ManpowerGroup stock, see the MAN Stock Forecast page.
Business Operations and Strategy
ManpowerGroup Highlights Strategy at J.P. Morgan Conference
Positive
Nov 18, 2025
On November 18, 2025, John T. McGinnis, the Executive Vice President and CFO of ManpowerGroup, presented at the J.P. Morgan 2025 Ultimate Services Investor Conference. The presentation highlighted the company’s strategic and technology initiatives aimed at driving efficiencies and addressing workforce trends. ManpowerGroup continues to focus on transforming its operations to enhance market penetration and maintain its position as a leader in the workforce solutions industry. The company’s efforts in diversification, digitization, and innovation are expected to provide a sustainable competitive advantage and improve client and candidate experiences.
The most recent analyst rating on (MAN) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ManpowerGroup stock, see the MAN Stock Forecast page.
Dividends
ManpowerGroup Declares Semi-Annual Dividend Announcement
Positive
Nov 10, 2025
On November 6, 2025, ManpowerGroup‘s Board of Directors declared a semi-annual dividend of $0.72 per share, which will be paid on December 15, 2025, to shareholders recorded by December 1, 2025. This announcement underscores ManpowerGroup’s ongoing commitment to delivering shareholder value and reflects its stable financial position in the workforce solutions industry.
The most recent analyst rating on (MAN) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ManpowerGroup stock, see the MAN Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.