TriNet Group (TNET) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.01B
• Dividend Yield: 1.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 353.37K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: 0.99%
• EPS Growth: -47.02%
• Country: US
• Employees: 343,025
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Staffing & Employment Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 47,299,187
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 333,211
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 353,373
• PEG Ratio: -2.35
• Price to Book (P/B): 52.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.28
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.62
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.87
• 1Y Price Target: $53.00
• Price Target Upside: 56.57% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $45.00 ▲(32.94% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/13/26

The score is held back primarily by weakening profitability and elevated balance-sheet risk history, alongside strongly bearish technicals (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD). Earnings-call guidance shows disciplined cost control and strong cash generation, but is tempered by volume/retention declines and ongoing insurance-cost pressure. Valuation and dividend provide only moderate support.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation & improving FCF conversion

Consistent, improving cash conversion supports durable investments, dividends, buybacks and deleveraging without relying on capital markets. Higher FCF relative to earnings provides a structural buffer versus cyclical revenue pressures and funds strategic GTM and product investments over the next 2–6 months.

ASO growth and product mix expansion

Shift toward ASO increases recurring, higher ARPU revenue and client stickiness, improving margin resilience and cross-sell opportunities. A growing ASO base and strong conversion provide a more structural revenue stream less tied to cyclical hiring trends over the medium term.

Lower net debt and active capital returns

Reduced leverage and ongoing buybacks/dividends signal stronger financial flexibility and capital allocation discipline. Lower net debt improves resilience to operating shocks and creates durable optionality to invest or return capital without materially increasing financial risk in the near-to-medium term.

Negative Factors

Material margin compression

Significant deterioration in margins reduces the firm's ability to absorb cost shocks and fund strategic initiatives from internal cash. Sustained compression erodes competitive flexibility, making durable profitability recovery dependent on structural cost wins or improved pricing over the next several quarters.

Declining WSE base and volume pressure

A shrinking worksite-employee base undermines scale, reduces per-client upsell opportunities and weakens network effects. Persistent WSE declines create structural headwinds for top-line growth and make margin recovery more difficult, pressuring medium-term revenue sustainability.

Elevated insurance cost ratio & healthcare inflation

Persistently high combined insurance cost ratios materially compress gross margins and limit pricing power. Elevated medical and pharma inflation is a structural industry headwind that makes earnings and cash generation sensitive to benefit-cost trends and retention dynamics over the coming quarters.

TriNet Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

TriNet Group, Inc. provides human resources (HR) solutions, payroll services, employee benefits, and employment risk mitigation services for small and midsize businesses in the United States. The company offers multi-state payroll processing and tax administration; employee benefits programs, including health insurance and retirement plans; workers compensation insurance and claims management; employment and benefits law compliance; and other HR related services. It serves clients in various industries, including technology, professional services, financial services, life sciences, not-for-profit, property management, retail, manufacturing, and hospitality. The company sells its solutions through its direct sales organization. TriNet Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Dublin, California.

How the Company Makes Money

TriNet generates revenue primarily through its Professional Employer Organization (PEO) model, where it charges clients a fee based on the number of employees and the services provided. Key revenue streams include payroll processing fees, employee benefits administration, and HR consulting services. Additionally, TriNet earns income from value-added services such as risk management and compliance support. The company often enters into strategic partnerships with insurance providers and technology platforms to enhance its service offerings and deliver more comprehensive solutions to clients, further driving its revenue growth.

TriNet Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating fundamentals have weakened: revenue was slightly down in 2025 and profitability compressed materially (net margin ~3.1% vs ~7.6% in 2023; EBITDA margin ~6.8% vs ~13.4%). Cash conversion remains a relative strength (FCF roughly covered net income), but free cash flow declined sharply in 2025 and cash flows have been volatile. Balance-sheet quality is a key risk due to a historically extreme leverage profile and a thin equity base, despite much lower debt in 2025.

Income Statement

Revenue has been broadly flat over the last several years and turned slightly down in 2025 (annual revenue growth -1.5% after +2.7% in 2024). Profitability has weakened meaningfully from 2022–2023 levels: net margin fell to ~3.1% in 2025 versus ~7.6% in 2023, and EBITDA margin declined to ~6.8% from ~13.4%. A positive is that the company remains profitable and still generates a mid-single-digit EBITDA margin, but the earnings trajectory shows clear compression.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows elevated leverage risk and notable volatility in capital structure: debt-to-equity was extremely high in 2023–2024 (~14.6–14.8x) before dropping sharply in 2025 (~0.87x), which suggests a major change in financing and/or equity levels. Equity is small relative to the asset base in recent years (e.g., $54M equity vs. $3.8B assets in 2025), leaving less cushion if operating conditions weaken. Total debt is low in 2025 ($47M) versus prior years, which is a near-term positive, but the historical leverage profile and thin equity base weigh on overall balance sheet quality.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength: free cash flow has generally been solid and in 2025 slightly exceeded net income (free cash flow to net income ~1.01x), indicating earnings are supported by cash. However, free cash flow dropped sharply in 2025 (down 60% year over year), and operating cash flow levels have been volatile (very strong in 2022–2023, lower in 2024–2025). Overall, cash conversion is healthy, but the recent step-down and variability reduce confidence in durability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.01B	5.05B	4.92B	4.88B	4.54B
Gross Profit	870.00M	952.00M	1.10B	1.12B	937.00M
EBITDA	365.00M	374.00M	662.00M	610.00M	520.00M
Net Income	155.00M	173.00M	375.00M	355.00M	338.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.80B	4.12B	3.69B	3.44B	3.31B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	287.00M	360.00M	352.00M	430.00M	747.00M
Total Debt	47.00M	1.02B	1.14B	552.00M	547.00M
Total Liabilities	3.74B	4.05B	3.62B	2.67B	2.43B
Stockholders Equity	54.00M	69.00M	78.00M	775.00M	881.00M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	306.00M	201.00M	470.00M	506.00M	178.00M
Operating Cash Flow	303.00M	279.00M	545.00M	562.00M	218.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-43.00M	153.00M	-70.00M	-226.00M	-135.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-49.00M	-207.00M	-546.00M	-536.00M	12.00M

TriNet Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 33.85
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TNET, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.96, below the 50-day MA of 56.51, and below the 200-day MA of 64.90, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.89 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.72 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TNET.

TriNet Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADP	76 Outperform	$87.46B	20.87	73.84%	2.46%	7.07%	8.32%
PAYX	73 Outperform	$33.85B	21.37	40.88%	3.70%	12.37%	-7.18%
BBSI	66 Neutral	$837.93M	15.70	24.08%	0.88%	9.64%	9.93%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
RHI	59 Neutral	$2.62B	19.54	10.02%	8.65%	-7.27%	-43.88%
TNET	48 Neutral	$2.01B	13.44	111.30%	1.81%	0.99%	-47.02%
NSP	43 Neutral	$970.00M	―	-9.79%	6.37%	3.19%	-86.21%

TriNet Group Corporate Events

TriNet Group Announces Quarterly Dividend for Shareholders

On December 11, 2025, TriNet Group, Inc. announced a quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share, with a record date of January 2, 2026, and a payout date of January 26, 2026. This announcement reflects TriNet’s ongoing commitment to delivering value to its shareholders and underscores its stable financial position, which could positively impact its market perception and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TNET) stock is a Hold with a $59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on TriNet Group stock, see the TNET Stock Forecast page.