TriNet Group (TNET)
NYSE:TNET
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TriNet Group
(NYSE:TNET)
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Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
$37.00
â–²(6.84% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening fundamentals (margin compression and volume/retention pressure) and clearly bearish technical momentum. Offsetting factors include solid shareholder returns and moderate valuation support (2.9% yield, mid-teens P/E), plus constructive—but risk-balanced—2026 guidance focused on cost discipline and cash generation amid insurance-cost and demand headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash generation
Robust free cash flow and improved conversion provide durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investment. Strong cash generation supports capital return and reinvestment capacity even if top-line growth is uneven, enhancing financial flexibility over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Declining scale (WSEs)
A shrinking covered employee base reduces the core revenue moat of the co‑employment model and impairs scale economics. Persistent attrition and weak hiring limit organic growth, compressing unit economics and making top‑line recovery and margin recovery more difficult over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation
Robust free cash flow and improved conversion provide durable internal funding for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investment. Strong cash generation supports capital return and reinvestment capacity even if top-line growth is uneven, enhancing financial flexibility over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
TriNet Group (TNET) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.64B
Dividend Yield1.81%
Average Volume (3M)353.37K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.3
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth0.99%
EPS Growth-47.02%
CountryUS
Employees343,025
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryStaffing & Employment Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.46
Shares Outstanding47,299,187
10 Day Avg. Volume333,211
30 Day Avg. Volume353,373
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.35
Price to Book (P/B)52.56
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio9.28
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.13
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.76
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$52.00Price Target Upside50.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)4.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.21B
TriNet Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TriNet Group, Inc. provides human resources (HR) solutions, payroll services, employee benefits, and employment risk mitigation services for small and midsize businesses in the United States. The company offers multi-state payroll processing and t...
How the Company Makes Money
TriNet makes money primarily by providing PEO and HR outsourcing services to client businesses under a co-employment arrangement, in which TriNet becomes the employer of record for certain HR and benefits purposes while the client retains control ...
TriNet Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear execution and financial discipline (expense reduction, top-end guidance, stronger free cash flow and improved conversion, ASO momentum, NPS high, and product investments) against significant commercial headwinds (declining WSE base, weaker retention tied to repricing, soft hiring, and elevated medical/pharma cost inflation). Management presented a constructive plan and early signs of sales momentum entering 2026, but near-term volume and insurance-cost risks remain material and are explicitly reflected in guidance.Positive Updates
Top-End of Guidance and Strong Profitability
Finished FY2025 at the top end of full-year guidance; GAAP EPS of $3.20 and adjusted EPS of $4.73 for the year; generated $425M in adjusted EBITDA with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.5% for 2025.
Negative Updates
Declining Revenues and WSE Base
Total revenues declined 2% year over year in Q4 and 1% for FY2025; total WSEs declined ~10% YoY to ~320,000 and co-employed WSEs declined ~11% to ~294,000, reflecting meaningful volume pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-End of Guidance and Strong Profitability
Finished FY2025 at the top end of full-year guidance; GAAP EPS of $3.20 and adjusted EPS of $4.73 for the year; generated $425M in adjusted EBITDA with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.5% for 2025.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
TriNet's 2026 guidance calls for total revenues of $4.75–4.90 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.5%–8.7% (versus $425M and an 8.5% margin in 2025), GAAP EPS of $2.15–$3.05 and adjusted EPS of $3.70–$4.70; combined insurance cost ratio (ICR) is guided to 90.75%–89.25% (2025 ICR ~90.8%, Q4 ICR 94%), professional services revenue of ~$625–645M with ASO services expected to grow in the double digits, and CIE assumed in the low single digits. Management expects mid-single-digit operating expense reductions, an interest‑income headwind of $25–30M versus 2025, slightly improved retention from ~80% (down ~5 pts YoY in 2025) after January catch‑up repricing (with elevated Q1 attrition but improvement through the year), and a WSE base that exited 2025 at ~320k total WSEs (down 10%) and ~294k co‑employed WSEs (down 11%). The company reiterated strong cash generation (2025 net cash from operations $303M; free cash flow $234M, +16% YoY; 55% FCF conversion toward a 60–65% medium‑term target), a year‑end debt/adjusted EBITDA of ~2.1x, continued dividend/share‑repurchase capacity (2025 dividends $1.075 per share; Q4 repurchases ~$61M) and an increased $400M share repurchase authorization.TriNet Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
32
Negative
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.01B | 5.05B | 4.92B | 4.88B | 4.54B |
| Gross Profit | 870.00M | 952.00M | 1.10B | 1.12B | 937.00M |
| EBITDA | 365.00M | 374.00M | 662.00M | 610.00M | 520.00M |
| Net Income | 155.00M | 173.00M | 375.00M | 355.00M | 338.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.80B | 4.12B | 3.69B | 3.44B | 3.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.98B | 360.00M | 352.00M | 430.00M | 747.00M |
| Total Debt | 979.00M | 1.02B | 1.14B | 552.00M | 547.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.74B | 4.05B | 3.62B | 2.67B | 2.43B |
| Stockholders Equity | 54.00M | 69.00M | 78.00M | 775.00M | 881.00M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 306.00M | 201.00M | 470.00M | 506.00M | 178.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 303.00M | 279.00M | 545.00M | 562.00M | 218.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -43.00M | 153.00M | -70.00M | -226.00M | -135.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -49.00M | -207.00M | -546.00M | -536.00M | 12.00M |
TriNet Group Technical Analysis
Negative
34.63
Price Trends
40.94
Negative
49.74
Negative
57.33
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.22
Negative
35.29
Neutral
26.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TNET, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 34.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.93, below the 50-day MA of 40.94, and below the 200-day MA of 57.33, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 35.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TNET.
TriNet Group Risk Analysis
TriNet Group disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TriNet Group reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TriNet Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $76.02B | 24.45 | 68.28% | 2.46% | 7.07% | 8.32% | |
75 Outperform | $30.66B | 15.02 | 40.94% | 3.70% | 12.37% | -7.18% | |
65 Neutral | $713.00M | 16.87 | 23.66% | 0.88% | 9.64% | 9.93% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $2.39B | 20.45 | 10.26% | 8.65% | -7.27% | -43.88% | |
51 Neutral | $1.64B | 18.31 | 185.63% | 1.81% | 0.99% | -47.02% | |
45 Neutral | $944.34M | -210.19 | -7.69% | 6.37% | 3.19% | -86.21% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TNET
TriNet Group
34.63
-43.47
-55.66%
ADP
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188.79
-105.37
-35.82%
BBSI
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28.29
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-28.64%
NSP
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25.03
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-68.61%
PAYX
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85.57
-58.42
-40.57%
RHI
Robert Half
23.59
-22.70
-49.04%
TriNet Group Corporate Events
Dividends
TriNet Declares Quarterly Dividend, Highlighting Shareholder Focus
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
On March 19, 2026, TriNet announced that its board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share on its common stock, with a record and ex-dividend date of April 1, 2026. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on April 27, 2026, signaling continu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.