nCino (NCNO) AI Stock Analysis

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nCino

(NASDAQ:NCNO)

Select Model

Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:64Neutral

Price Target:

$31.00

▲(10.12% Upside)

nCino's strong earnings call performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly in AI and international markets, are significant positives. However, ongoing profitability challenges and a negative valuation environment weigh on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective product strategy, supporting long-term business expansion.

AI and Platform Pricing Progress

Adoption of AI solutions positions nCino as a leader in digital banking transformation, enhancing competitive advantage and future growth.

Integration Gateway Launch

The new integration platform enhances connectivity and customer experience, broadening market reach and strengthening ecosystem partnerships.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing losses and negative margins highlight operational inefficiencies, which may hinder sustainable growth and financial stability.

Professional Services Revenue Decline

Declining professional services revenue suggests challenges in service delivery and customer engagement, impacting overall revenue diversification.

Change Management Challenges

Difficulties in adopting new solutions may slow customer uptake, affecting the speed of innovation and competitive positioning.

nCino (NCNO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.31B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.22M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.35

Revenue Growth13.24%

EPS Growth-12.97%

CountryUS

Employees1,833

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength88

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.22

Shares Outstanding115,814,720

10 Day Avg. Volume2,156,373

30 Day Avg. Volume2,224,093

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02

Enterprise Value/Revenue6.24

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.51

Enterprise Value/Ebitda353.51

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$35.73

Price Target Upside26.93% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering15

nCino Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionnCino, Inc. is a cloud-based banking and financial services software company that specializes in providing digital solutions to banks and credit unions. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Wilmington, North Carolina, nCino's core platform, the Bank Operating System, integrates various banking functions and enhances operational efficiency through automation, data analytics, and customer relationship management. The company primarily serves the commercial and retail banking sectors, aiming to streamline processes from loan origination to compliance and risk management.

How the Company Makes MoneynCino generates revenue primarily through subscription-based pricing models for its software solutions. The company charges its clients annual fees based on the number of users and the services selected, which allows banks and credit unions to access its comprehensive suite of tools for managing operations. Additionally, nCino may earn revenue from professional services such as implementation, training, and ongoing support. Key partnerships with major financial institutions and technology providers, along with the increasing demand for digital transformation in banking, significantly contribute to its revenue growth.

nCino Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Remaining Performance Obligations

Remaining Performance Obligations
Indicates the value of contracted revenue yet to be recognized, providing insight into future revenue streams and business stability.

Chart InsightsnCino's Remaining Performance Obligations have shown a robust upward trend, reaching $1.2 billion by early 2025, indicating strong future revenue commitments. This aligns with their recent earnings call, which highlighted substantial international growth and promising AI-driven product launches. However, the company is facing challenges with a deceleration in subscription revenue growth and a workforce reduction to streamline operations. Despite these hurdles, nCino's strategic initiatives and restructuring efforts aim to sustain growth and improve efficiency, providing a balanced outlook for investors.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

nCino Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2025

(Q2-2026)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 26, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

nCino's Q2 earnings call showcased strong revenue and profitability performance, with significant growth in North America and international markets. The company's AI and mortgage initiatives are gaining traction, and the activation of the credit union market is showing positive results. However, there are challenges with professional services revenue and change management with new offerings. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.

Q2-2026 Updates

Positive Updates

Outperformance in Revenue and Profitability

nCino outperformed its guidance ranges for both revenues and profitability metrics in Q2, with total revenues reaching $148.8 million, up 12% year-over-year. Subscription revenues were $130.8 million, up 15% year-over-year.

Strong North American and International Expansion

Significant expansion agreements with two top 50 U.S. banks and a top five Canadian bank. In EMEA, nCino signed its first customer in Spain, exploring a $4 billion market opportunity.

AI and Platform Pricing Progress

Over 80 customers have purchased the Banking Adviser technology. nCino has converted approximately 21% of its ACV to platform pricing, with a target of a 10% price uplift on renewals.

Mortgage Business Momentum

Subscription revenues in the mortgage business were $20.9 million, up 22% year-over-year, and the company increased its full-year guidance for US mortgage subscription revenues growth from flat to 5%.

Credit Union Market Activation

In the credit union market, nCino added six new logos and 35 cross-sells in the second quarter, with a notable expansion deal involving a $12 billion asset credit union.

Negative Updates

Professional Services Revenue Decline

Professional services revenues were $18.1 million, a decrease of 2% year-over-year. The company focuses on gross profit growth rather than revenue growth in this segment.

Challenges with Change Management

The adoption of new AI solutions and platform pricing models involves significant change management challenges for customers, which can impact the speed of uptake.

Company Guidance

During nCino's second quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, the company reported outperforming its guidance ranges for revenues and profitability metrics. Total revenues reached $148.8 million, a 12% increase year-over-year, with subscription revenues at $130.8 million, marking a 15% increase year-over-year. The company highlighted strong market validation of its product strategy and noted significant expansion agreements with major North American and Canadian banks. nCino's growth initiatives showed positive traction, particularly in EMEA, where they signed their first customer in Spain, recognizing a $4 billion market opportunity. The credit union market also saw significant engagement, adding six new logos and 35 cross-sells. Additionally, nCino's Banking Adviser, an AI-powered solution, was adopted by over 80 customers, positioning the company as a leader in AI banking transformation. For fiscal 2026, nCino revised its full-year revenue guidance to $585 million to $589 million, reflecting a solid performance and a focus on executing growth strategies globally.

nCino Financial Statement Overview

Summary

nCino shows strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, with significant equity backing and low debt levels. However, persistent losses and reliance on external financing indicate operational and profitability challenges. Continued focus on achieving profitability and sustainable cash flow will be crucial for long-term success.

Income Statement

Positive

nCino has shown impressive revenue growth with a CAGR of approximately 31% from 2020 to 2025. The gross profit margin remains strong, averaging above 60%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company is still unprofitable with negative net income and EBIT margins, which reflects ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet is strong with a high equity ratio, showing a stable financial structure and low leverage, as evidenced by a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio. However, the company has yet to achieve positive return on equity due to its current loss-making position.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Despite operating cash flow being positive and growing, the free cash flow growth is inconsistent, reflecting potential volatility in cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, but the dependency on external financing is evident.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	540.66M	540.66M	476.54M	273.87M	273.87M	204.29M
Gross Profit	321.16M	324.79M	285.07M	162.45M	162.45M	116.16M
EBITDA	9.55M	9.55M	7.46M	-56.47M	-62.43M	-33.12M
Net Income	-37.88M	-37.88M	-42.35M	-50.12M	-49.45M	-40.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.61B	1.61B	1.34B	1.30B	563.40M	563.40M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	120.93M	120.93M	112.08M	88.01M	371.43M	371.43M
Total Debt	236.82M	236.82M	74.23M	48.84M	16.26M	16.26M
Total Liabilities	512.78M	512.78M	287.83M	230.51M	134.43M	134.43M
Stockholders Equity	1.09B	1.09B	1.05B	1.07B	425.18M	425.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	53.38M	53.38M	53.41M	-24.69M	4.88M	4.88M
Operating Cash Flow	55.20M	55.20M	57.28M	-19.23M	9.22M	9.22M
Investing Cash Flow	-219.18M	-219.18M	-6.33M	-278.49M	-4.34M	-4.34M
Financing Cash Flow	170.48M	170.48M	-21.11M	15.92M	274.12M	274.12M

nCino Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price28.15

Price Trends

50DMA

29.31

Negative

100DMA

28.06

Negative

200DMA

29.13

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.18

Positive

RSI

38.94

Neutral

STOCH

5.22

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCNO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 28.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.09, below the 50-day MA of 29.31, and below the 200-day MA of 29.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.22 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCNO.

nCino Risk Analysis

nCino disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. nCino reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

nCino Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GTM	73 Outperform	3.68B	44.17	5.75%	―	-0.54%	626.94%
QTWO	68 Neutral	4.67B	1,221.21	0.84%	―	13.34%	―
FRSH	67 Neutral	3.64B	-68.72	-5.58%	―	19.78%	47.51%
INTA	65 Neutral	3.46B	-179.91	-3.50%	―	17.09%	48.66%
NCNO	64 Neutral	$3.31B	―	-3.15%	―	13.24%	-12.97%
BL	61 Neutral	3.27B	42.51	21.25%	―	7.99%	-28.47%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NCNO

nCino

27.98

-3.31

-10.58%

QTWO

Q2 Holdings

74.86

-4.19

-5.30%

BlackLine

52.84

>-0.01

-0.02%

GTM

ZoomInfo Technologies

11.56

1.06

10.10%

INTA

Intapp

42.10

-5.44

-11.44%

FRSH

Freshworks

12.48

1.04

9.09%

nCino Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

nCino Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

Neutral

Jun 20, 2025

On June 18, 2025, nCino held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 92% of eligible shares were represented. During the meeting, stockholders elected two Class II directors, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026, approved executive compensation, and passed amendments for board declassification.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 24, 2025