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nCino (NCNO)
NASDAQ:NCNO
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nCino (NCNO) AI Stock Analysis

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NCNO

nCino

(NASDAQ:NCNO)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$36.00
▲(18.23% Upside)
nCino's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are offset by valuation concerns due to ongoing losses. The technical indicators suggest a strong upward trend, but the stock may be overbought. The company's strategic initiatives, particularly in AI and international expansion, provide a promising outlook, but profitability remains a key challenge.
Positive Factors
AI Strategy
A compelling AI strategy is seen as a key determinant of future subscription revenue growth acceleration.
Deal Activity
There is a strong level of deal activity, which is the strongest in quite some time.
Negative Factors
Future Comparisons
There is a conscious awareness of tough future comparisons in the third quarter, which could impact performance.
Organic Growth
The biggest concern remains the moderation of organic subscription revenue growth in the back half of fiscal 2026 and the implications for growth in fiscal 2027.

nCino (NCNO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

nCino Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionnCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides cloud-based software applications to financial institutions in the United States and internationally. Its nCino Bank Operating System, a tenant cloud platform, which digitizes, automates, and streamlines complex processes and workflow; and utilizes data analytics and artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) to enable banks and credit unions to onboard new clients, make loans and manage the entire loan life cycle, open deposit and other accounts, and manage regulatory compliance. The company's nCino IQ, an application suite that utilizes data analytics and AI/ML to provide its customers with automation and insights into their operations, such as tools for analyzing, measuring, and managing credit risk, as well as to enhance their ability to comply with regulatory requirements. It also offers SimpleNexus, a suite of products that enables loan officers, borrowers, real estate agents, settlement agents, and others to engage in the homeownership process from internet-enabled device. The company serves financial institution customers, including global financial institutions, enterprise banks, regional banks, community banks, credit unions, new market entrants, and independent mortgage banks through sales team comprising business development representatives, account executives, field sales engineers, and customer success managers. nCino, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Wilmington, North Carolina.
How the Company Makes MoneynCino generates revenue primarily through subscription-based pricing models for its software solutions. The company charges its clients annual fees based on the number of users and the services selected, which allows banks and credit unions to access its comprehensive suite of tools for managing operations. Additionally, nCino may earn revenue from professional services such as implementation, training, and ongoing support. Key partnerships with major financial institutions and technology providers, along with the increasing demand for digital transformation in banking, significantly contribute to its revenue growth.

nCino Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Remaining Performance Obligations
Remaining Performance Obligations
Indicates the value of contracted revenue yet to be recognized, providing insight into future revenue streams and business stability.
Chart InsightsnCino's Remaining Performance Obligations have shown a robust upward trend, reaching $1.2 billion by early 2025, indicating strong future revenue commitments. This aligns with their recent earnings call, which highlighted substantial international growth and promising AI-driven product launches. However, the company is facing challenges with a deceleration in subscription revenue growth and a workforce reduction to streamline operations. Despite these hurdles, nCino's strategic initiatives and restructuring efforts aim to sustain growth and improve efficiency, providing a balanced outlook for investors.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

nCino Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2025
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 26, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
nCino's Q2 earnings call showcased strong revenue and profitability performance, with significant growth in North America and international markets. The company's AI and mortgage initiatives are gaining traction, and the activation of the credit union market is showing positive results. However, there are challenges with professional services revenue and change management with new offerings. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Outperformance in Revenue and Profitability
nCino outperformed its guidance ranges for both revenues and profitability metrics in Q2, with total revenues reaching $148.8 million, up 12% year-over-year. Subscription revenues were $130.8 million, up 15% year-over-year.
Strong North American and International Expansion
Significant expansion agreements with two top 50 U.S. banks and a top five Canadian bank. In EMEA, nCino signed its first customer in Spain, exploring a $4 billion market opportunity.
AI and Platform Pricing Progress
Over 80 customers have purchased the Banking Adviser technology. nCino has converted approximately 21% of its ACV to platform pricing, with a target of a 10% price uplift on renewals.
Mortgage Business Momentum
Subscription revenues in the mortgage business were $20.9 million, up 22% year-over-year, and the company increased its full-year guidance for US mortgage subscription revenues growth from flat to 5%.
Credit Union Market Activation
In the credit union market, nCino added six new logos and 35 cross-sells in the second quarter, with a notable expansion deal involving a $12 billion asset credit union.
Negative Updates
Professional Services Revenue Decline
Professional services revenues were $18.1 million, a decrease of 2% year-over-year. The company focuses on gross profit growth rather than revenue growth in this segment.
Challenges with Change Management
The adoption of new AI solutions and platform pricing models involves significant change management challenges for customers, which can impact the speed of uptake.
Company Guidance
During nCino's second quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call, the company reported outperforming its guidance ranges for revenues and profitability metrics. Total revenues reached $148.8 million, a 12% increase year-over-year, with subscription revenues at $130.8 million, marking a 15% increase year-over-year. The company highlighted strong market validation of its product strategy and noted significant expansion agreements with major North American and Canadian banks. nCino's growth initiatives showed positive traction, particularly in EMEA, where they signed their first customer in Spain, recognizing a $4 billion market opportunity. The credit union market also saw significant engagement, adding six new logos and 35 cross-sells. Additionally, nCino's Banking Adviser, an AI-powered solution, was adopted by over 80 customers, positioning the company as a leader in AI banking transformation. For fiscal 2026, nCino revised its full-year revenue guidance to $585 million to $589 million, reflecting a solid performance and a focus on executing growth strategies globally.

nCino Financial Statement Overview

Summary
nCino shows strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, with significant equity backing and low debt levels. However, persistent losses and reliance on external financing indicate operational and profitability challenges. Continued focus on achieving profitability and sustainable cash flow will be crucial for long-term success.
Income Statement
65
Positive
nCino has shown impressive revenue growth with a CAGR of approximately 31% from 2020 to 2025. The gross profit margin remains strong, averaging above 60%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company is still unprofitable with negative net income and EBIT margins, which reflects ongoing operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet is strong with a high equity ratio, showing a stable financial structure and low leverage, as evidenced by a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio. However, the company has yet to achieve positive return on equity due to its current loss-making position.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Despite operating cash flow being positive and growing, the free cash flow growth is inconsistent, reflecting potential volatility in cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, but the dependency on external financing is evident.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue540.66M540.66M476.54M273.87M273.87M204.29M
Gross Profit321.16M324.79M285.07M162.45M162.45M116.16M
EBITDA9.55M9.55M7.46M-56.47M-62.43M-33.12M
Net Income-37.88M-37.88M-42.35M-50.12M-49.45M-40.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.61B1.61B1.34B1.30B563.40M563.40M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments120.93M120.93M112.08M88.01M371.43M371.43M
Total Debt236.82M236.82M74.23M48.84M16.26M16.26M
Total Liabilities512.78M512.78M287.83M230.51M134.43M134.43M
Stockholders Equity1.09B1.09B1.05B1.07B425.18M425.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow53.38M53.38M53.41M-24.69M4.88M4.88M
Operating Cash Flow55.20M55.20M57.28M-19.23M9.22M9.22M
Investing Cash Flow-219.18M-219.18M-6.33M-278.49M-4.34M-4.34M
Financing Cash Flow170.48M170.48M-21.11M15.92M274.12M274.12M

nCino Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price30.45
Price Trends
50DMA
28.93
Positive
100DMA
27.01
Positive
200DMA
30.00
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.77
Negative
RSI
56.70
Neutral
STOCH
49.71
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCNO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.80, above the 50-day MA of 28.93, and above the 200-day MA of 30.00, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.77 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.71 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NCNO.

nCino Risk Analysis

nCino disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. nCino reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

nCino Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$4.76B19.20128.70%2.10%19.85%135.66%
68
Neutral
$3.60B-3.15%13.24%-12.97%
67
Neutral
$2.56B-11.47%29.63%29.87%
65
Neutral
$4.82B1,260.520.92%13.34%
61
Neutral
$35.51B8.11-11.05%1.89%8.55%-8.72%
60
Neutral
$1.14B182.58-0.50%22.16%-107.92%
48
Neutral
$247.11M-105.81%-10.85%-15.09%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NCNO
nCino
30.45
0.40
1.33%
QTWO
Q2 Holdings
77.27
6.13
8.62%
NRDY
Nerdy
1.33
0.39
41.49%
SEMR
SEMrush Holdings
7.68
-5.54
-41.91%
ALKT
Alkami Technology
25.02
-4.30
-14.67%
YOU
Clear Secure
35.52
7.76
27.95%

nCino Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
nCino Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 20, 2025

On June 18, 2025, nCino held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 92% of eligible shares were represented. During the meeting, stockholders elected two Class II directors, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026, approved executive compensation, and passed amendments for board declassification.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 28, 2025