nCino (NCNO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.76B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: 12.14%
• EPS Growth: -19.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,833
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.31
• Shares Outstanding: 114,684,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,653,357
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,329,399
• PEG Ratio: 7.86
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.24
• P/FCF Ratio: 73.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.43
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 43.99
• 1Y Price Target: $32.60
• Price Target Upside: 106.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $639.26M

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.50 ▲(4.36% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (clear downtrend) and ongoing GAAP profitability challenges despite improving cash generation and a strong balance sheet. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call was notably positive on revenue growth, margin expansion, and AI-driven product momentum, supporting a mid-range overall rating.

Positive Factors

Recurring Subscription Revenue Growth

Consistent subscription growth reflects durable SaaS revenue mix and recurring cash flows. With a platform pricing transition underway (27% ACV converted) and upsell potential, subscription momentum supports predictable revenue, customer retention, and long-term margin expansion.

Strong Balance Sheet / Low Leverage

Extremely low leverage and a healthy equity ratio provide financial flexibility to fund R&D, international expansion, and AI investments without dependence on external debt. This conservatism reduces refinancing risk and supports multi‑quarter strategic execution.

AI Product Traction and Platform Expansion

Broad early adoption of Banking Advisor units and planned expansion to ~100 capabilities strengthens product differentiation and platform stickiness. AI-driven functionality creates long-term upsell pathways and competitive barriers across banking workflows and geographies.

Negative Factors

Ongoing GAAP Profitability Challenges

Persistent GAAP losses and negative margins constrain retained earnings and reduce financial flexibility for sustained investment. Even with non‑GAAP margin improvements, continued net losses lengthen the timeline to durable, self‑funded profitability and heighten execution risk.

Decelerating Free Cash Flow

Although FCF remains positive and relatively efficient versus net losses, the decline versus prior periods weakens the cash buffer for scaling sales, professional services, and international expansion. Continued deceleration would limit reinvestment without external funding.

Weak TTM Revenue Momentum

A low TTM growth rate signals mixed top‑line momentum despite quarter-to-quarter wins. Modest trailing growth raises questions about the pace of enterprise adoption and the time required for platform pricing and AI upsells to materially lift sustainable revenue growth.

nCino Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

nCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides cloud-based software applications to financial institutions in the United States and internationally. Its nCino Bank Operating System, a tenant cloud platform, which digitizes, automates, and streamlines complex processes and workflow; and utilizes data analytics and artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) to enable banks and credit unions to onboard new clients, make loans and manage the entire loan life cycle, open deposit and other accounts, and manage regulatory compliance. The company's nCino IQ, an application suite that utilizes data analytics and AI/ML to provide its customers with automation and insights into their operations, such as tools for analyzing, measuring, and managing credit risk, as well as to enhance their ability to comply with regulatory requirements. It also offers SimpleNexus, a suite of products that enables loan officers, borrowers, real estate agents, settlement agents, and others to engage in the homeownership process from internet-enabled device. The company serves financial institution customers, including global financial institutions, enterprise banks, regional banks, community banks, credit unions, new market entrants, and independent mortgage banks through sales team comprising business development representatives, account executives, field sales engineers, and customer success managers. nCino, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Wilmington, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

nCino generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its cloud-based solutions. The company utilizes a Software as a Service (SaaS) model, where clients pay a recurring fee based on the number of users or the volume of transactions processed through its platform. Key revenue streams include implementation services, ongoing customer support, and training. Additionally, nCino has established strategic partnerships with major financial institutions and technology companies, which contribute to its market reach and credibility, further enhancing its revenue potential. The company also benefits from upselling opportunities as clients expand their use of nCino's services and as it introduces new features and products.

nCino Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue is growing and gross margins are stable around ~60%, and the balance sheet is conservatively levered (very low debt-to-equity). However, profitability remains a key weakness (TTM net loss and negative ROE), and free cash flow, while positive, has shown deceleration.

Income Statement

nCino's revenue has shown consistent growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 2.33%. Gross profit margins are stable around 60%, indicating strong cost management. However, the company is still operating at a net loss, with a negative net profit margin of -3.71% in the TTM. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved but remain low, reflecting ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0137 in the TTM, indicating low leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's ongoing net losses. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has improved significantly, with a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.322 in the TTM. Free cash flow is also positive, although it has decreased compared to the previous period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.89, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022	Jan 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	586.49M	540.66M	476.54M	408.31M	273.87M	204.29M
Gross Profit	352.61M	324.79M	285.07M	238.71M	162.45M	116.16M
EBITDA	45.75M	9.55M	7.46M	-56.47M	-62.43M	-33.12M
Net Income	-21.77M	-37.88M	-42.35M	-102.72M	-49.45M	-40.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.56B	1.61B	1.34B	1.33B	1.30B	563.40M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	87.59M	120.93M	112.08M	82.04M	88.01M	371.43M
Total Debt	269.37M	236.82M	74.23M	96.54M	48.84M	16.26M
Total Liabilities	507.25M	512.78M	287.83M	299.60M	230.51M	134.43M
Stockholders Equity	1.04B	1.09B	1.05B	1.02B	1.07B	425.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.72M	52.93M	53.41M	-34.28M	-24.69M	4.88M
Operating Cash Flow	67.11M	55.20M	57.28M	-15.38M	-19.23M	9.22M
Investing Cash Flow	-180.04M	-219.18M	-5.34M	-20.73M	-278.49M	-4.34M
Financing Cash Flow	-57.78M	170.48M	-22.10M	36.71M	15.92M	274.12M

nCino Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.81
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCNO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.85, below the 50-day MA of 22.12, and below the 200-day MA of 25.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.92 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCNO.

nCino Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FRSH	71 Outperform	$2.02B	11.19	16.93%	―	18.18%	70.94%
QTWO	67 Neutral	$2.95B	60.45	8.82%	―	13.93%	―
GTM	66 Neutral	$1.83B	15.84	7.76%	―	1.47%	1077.70%
INTA	66 Neutral	$1.71B	-74.08	-5.41%	―	17.11%	-19.12%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
NCNO	59 Neutral	$1.76B	-83.70	-2.04%	―	12.14%	-19.29%
BL	53 Neutral	$1.93B	85.02	6.29%	―	7.36%	-40.62%

nCino Corporate Events

nCino Expands Board and Reports Strong Q3 Results

On December 1, 2025, nCino‘s Board of Directors expanded from eight to nine members, appointing Andy Yasutake and Diego Dugatkin following Jeff Horing’s resignation. This change is not due to any disagreement with the company. Additionally, Pierre Naudé will transition from Executive Chairman to a non-employee director and Chairman on February 1, 2026. nCino also reported strong financial results for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, with total revenues of $152.2 million, marking a 10% increase year-over-year. The company continues to expand its AI capabilities and has secured significant expansion agreements with major banks, reinforcing its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCNO) stock is a Buy with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on nCino stock, see the NCNO Stock Forecast page.