Ncino, Inc. (NCNO)
NASDAQ:NCNO
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nCino
(NASDAQ:NCNO)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▼(-10.62% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/28/26
The score is supported by improving financial quality (strong and rising free cash flow, low leverage, and a move to profitability) and a constructive earnings update with raised FY27 guidance and margin expansion. This is tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a valuation that is still demanding at ~35x earnings.
Positive Factors
Recurring subscription growth & raised guidance
Sustained subscription growth and a raised full-year subscription revenue guide indicate durable recurring revenue expansion. A larger base improves predictability, supports higher ACV, and enables upsell/cross-sell economics that strengthen long-term revenue visibility and customer lifetime value.
Negative Factors
Modest margins and returns
Despite scale and improving profitability, margins and returns remain low versus SaaS peers. Modest net and EBITDA margins limit cushion against cost shocks and reduce reinvestment efficiency, making long-term return on capital sensitive to margin pressure or slower revenue growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring subscription growth & raised guidance
Sustained subscription growth and a raised full-year subscription revenue guide indicate durable recurring revenue expansion. A larger base improves predictability, supports higher ACV, and enables upsell/cross-sell economics that strengthen long-term revenue visibility and customer lifetime value.
Read all positive factors
nCino Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Remaining Performance Obligations
Indicates the value of contracted revenue yet to be recognized, providing insight into future revenue streams and business stability.
Indicates the value of contracted revenue yet to be recognized, providing insight into future revenue streams and business stability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlynCino (NCNO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.74B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.31M
Price to Earnings (P/E)131.6
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth9.58%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,833
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.13
Shares Outstanding109,552,950
10 Day Avg. Volume4,512,774
30 Day Avg. Volume3,306,184
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.04
Price to Book (P/B)2.28
Price to Sales (P/S)4.05
P/FCF Ratio29.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.95
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.70
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.39
Enterprise Value/Ebitda33.27
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.27Price Target Upside20.65% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)1.21
Revenue Forecast (FY)$641.99M
nCino Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
nCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides cloud-based software applications to financial institutions in the United States and internationally. Its nCino Bank Operating System, a tenant cloud platform, which digitizes, automates, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
nCino primarily makes money by selling access to its cloud software platform under a subscription (SaaS) model, where customers pay recurring fees—typically tied to contract terms and usage metrics such as number of users, deployed modules, or rel...
nCino Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 27, 2026
(Q1-2027)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed material operational and financial progress: accelerating subscription revenues, sizable margin expansion, strong free cash flow, raised full-year guidance, meaningful AI adoption signals (transitioned ACV, >200 IU bundles, banking adviser usage surge), and productivity gains in engineering and services. Lowlights were largely tactical and timing-related: mortgage headwinds with conservative assumptions, flat professional services revenue, some expense timing that boosted Q1 operating income, and early-stage IU monetization/LLM cost risks. Overall, the positive execution and upward guidance outweigh the risks presented, though the company is taking a prudent stance on AI monetization and mortgage exposure.Positive Updates
Revenue and Subscription Growth
Q1 total revenues $159.4M (+11% YoY). Subscription revenues $140.9M (+12% YoY; +11% in constant currency) with a sequential subscription revenue increase of ~ $7.5M.
Negative Updates
Mortgage Revenue Headwinds and Conservatism
U.S. mortgage subscription revenues $19.7M (+4% YoY in Q1), but management set Q2 mortgage subscription guidance at -2% YoY and maintained a conservative posture for the year (annual mortgage growth assumed ~1%). Management expects Q2–Q3 to be the tougher/more trough periods for mortgage.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Subscription Growth
Q1 total revenues $159.4M (+11% YoY). Subscription revenues $140.9M (+12% YoY; +11% in constant currency) with a sequential subscription revenue increase of ~ $7.5M.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 FY27 total revenues of $157.75M–$159.75M and subscription revenues of $140.25M–$142.25M (about 7%–8% YoY at the midpoint), with Q2 non‑GAAP operating income of $35.5M–$37.5M, an assumed U.S. mortgage subscription decline of ~2% YoY in Q2 and ex‑mortgage constant‑currency subscription growth of 9%–11%; for fiscal 2027 they raised full‑year guidance to $642M–$646M total revenues (~8% growth at midpoint), subscription revenues $571.5M–$575.5M (~10% growth, 9% cc), net ACV additions of $60M–$65M for cumulative ACV of $662.5M–$667.5M (+10% vs FY26 midpoint), non‑GAAP operating income $166M–$171M (~30% increase vs FY26 midpoint) and free cash flow $135M–$140M; Q1 that informed the outlook included $159.4M total revenue, $140.9M subscription (+12% YoY, 11% cc), $44.5M non‑GAAP operating income (28% margin) and $80.8M free cash flow (+54% YoY), and management noted >40% of ACV on the new pricing model, >200 customers with initial intelligence‑unit bundles and banking adviser usage up >38x (May vs Oct).nCino Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 610.06M | 594.78M | 540.66M | 476.54M | 408.31M | 273.87M |
| Gross Profit | 374.67M | 360.17M | 324.79M | 285.07M | 238.71M | 162.45M |
| EBITDA | 49.42M | 3.73M | 9.55M | 7.46M | -56.47M | -62.43M |
| Net Income | 13.26M | 5.18M | -37.88M | -42.35M | -102.72M | -49.45M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.61B | 1.65B | 1.61B | 1.34B | 1.33B | 1.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 102.81M | 88.37M | 120.93M | 112.08M | 82.04M | 88.01M |
| Total Debt | 22.81M | 278.69M | 236.82M | 74.23M | 96.54M | 48.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 623.38M | 579.45M | 512.78M | 287.83M | 299.60M | 230.51M |
| Stockholders Equity | 970.36M | 1.06B | 1.09B | 1.05B | 1.02B | 1.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 110.75M | 82.56M | 52.93M | 53.41M | -34.28M | -24.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 117.15M | 90.06M | 55.20M | 57.28M | -15.38M | -19.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.40M | -54.08M | -219.18M | -5.34M | -20.73M | -278.49M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -141.17M | -73.03M | 170.48M | -22.10M | 36.71M | 15.92M |
nCino Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.46
Price Trends
16.58
Negative
17.92
Negative
22.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.41
Negative
48.43
Neutral
62.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCNO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.24, above the 50-day MA of 16.58, and below the 200-day MA of 22.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NCNO.
nCino Risk Analysis
nCino disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. nCino reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
nCino Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $2.59B | 15.27 | 18.54% | ― | 15.92% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $2.83B | 39.95 | 11.91% | ― | 14.00% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $1.59B | -47.02 | -8.92% | ― | 15.90% | -91.64% | |
67 Neutral | $1.74B | 131.59 | 1.29% | ― | 9.58% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $946.04M | 8.48 | 8.36% | ― | 3.64% | 230.24% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $1.59B | 65.72 | 7.70% | ― | 8.12% | -82.54% |
* Technology Sector Average
NCNO
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nCino Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
nCino Posts Record Results and Launches Debt-Funded Buyback
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
On March 30, 2026, nCino amended its credit agreement to add a $200 million senior secured term loan maturing in 2029, with flexible prepayment and leverage and interest coverage covenants typical for such facilities. The loan, guaranteed and secu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.