nCino (NCNO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.33B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.83M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.39
• Revenue Growth: 13.39%
• EPS Growth: 16.12%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,833
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 87
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 115,941,574
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,765,063
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,833,347
• PEG Ratio: -4.46
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 61.63
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.44
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 55.17
• 1Y Price Target: $30.29
• Price Target Upside: 5.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $29.00 ▲(1.05%Upside)

The overall score reflects a balanced view of nCino's strengths and challenges. The company's strong revenue growth and strategic initiatives, such as AI capabilities and international expansion, are positive signs. However, ongoing losses, a high P/E ratio, and operational challenges such as workforce reductions weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

The RIF and office space rationalization should drive an incremental $18mn in cost savings on an annualized basis.

Earnings Performance

NCino reported solid April-quarter results and modestly raised fiscal 2026 guidance.

Subscription Revenue Growth

The potential for Banking Advisor and the new pricing model to drive subscription revenue growth acceleration is noted.

Negative Factors

Pricing Model Transition

Only less than 10% of nCino's business ex-Mortgage base is currently on the new pricing model, indicating a slow transition progress.

Revenue Outlook

The total revenue outlook feels quite conservative, marking the first instance in the company's history that total revenues would decline sequentially in F2Q.

nCino Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

nCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides cloud-based software applications to financial institutions in the United States and internationally. Its nCino Bank Operating System, a tenant cloud platform, which digitizes, automates, and streamlines complex processes and workflow; and utilizes data analytics and artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) to enable banks and credit unions to onboard new clients, make loans and manage the entire loan life cycle, open deposit and other accounts, and manage regulatory compliance. The company's nCino IQ, an application suite that utilizes data analytics and AI/ML to provide its customers with automation and insights into their operations, such as tools for analyzing, measuring, and managing credit risk, as well as to enhance their ability to comply with regulatory requirements. It also offers SimpleNexus, a suite of products that enables loan officers, borrowers, real estate agents, settlement agents, and others to engage in the homeownership process from internet-enabled device. The company serves financial institution customers, including global financial institutions, enterprise banks, regional banks, community banks, credit unions, new market entrants, and independent mortgage banks through sales team comprising business development representatives, account executives, field sales engineers, and customer success managers. nCino, Inc. was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Wilmington, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

nCino generates revenue primarily through the sale of subscriptions to its cloud-based software solutions. The company's revenue model is based on a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) framework, where financial institutions pay subscription fees to access and utilize the nCino Bank Operating System. These fees typically depend on the size of the institution and the scope of the services they subscribe to. Additionally, nCino earns revenue from professional services, such as implementation, training, and support, which are offered to assist clients in deploying and optimizing the nCino platform. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with major technology firms, such as Salesforce, which enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach.

nCino Financial Statement Overview

Summary

nCino shows strong revenue growth and a solid balance sheet, with significant equity backing and low debt levels. However, persistent losses and reliance on external financing indicate operational and profitability challenges. Continued focus on achieving profitability and sustainable cash flow will be crucial for long-term success.

Income Statement

nCino has shown impressive revenue growth with a CAGR of approximately 31% from 2020 to 2025. The gross profit margin remains strong, averaging above 60%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the company is still unprofitable with negative net income and EBIT margins, which reflects ongoing operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is strong with a high equity ratio, showing a stable financial structure and low leverage, as evidenced by a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio. However, the company has yet to achieve positive return on equity due to its current loss-making position.

Cash Flow

Despite operating cash flow being positive and growing, the free cash flow growth is inconsistent, reflecting potential volatility in cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, but the dependency on external financing is evident.

Breakdown	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	540.66M	476.54M	273.87M	273.87M	204.29M
Gross Profit	324.79M	285.07M	162.45M	162.45M	116.16M
EBITDA	9.55M	7.46M	-56.47M	-62.43M	-33.12M
Net Income	-37.88M	-42.35M	-50.12M	-49.45M	-40.54M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.61B	1.34B	1.30B	563.40M	563.40M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	120.93M	112.08M	88.01M	371.43M	371.43M
Total Debt	236.82M	74.23M	48.84M	16.26M	16.26M
Total Liabilities	512.78M	287.83M	230.51M	134.43M	134.43M
Stockholders Equity	1.09B	1.05B	1.07B	425.18M	425.18M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	53.38M	53.41M	-24.69M	4.88M	4.88M
Operating Cash Flow	55.20M	57.28M	-19.23M	9.22M	9.22M
Investing Cash Flow	-219.18M	-6.33M	-278.49M	-4.34M	-4.34M
Financing Cash Flow	170.48M	-21.11M	15.92M	274.12M	274.12M

nCino Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 28.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCNO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.24, above the 50-day MA of 25.64, and below the 200-day MA of 31.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.68 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NCNO.

nCino Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
YOU	78 Outperform	$3.86B	15.55	124.77%	1.75%	21.59%	223.84%
ALKT	69 Neutral	$3.01B	―	-11.33%	―	26.55%	38.37%
NCNO	65 Neutral	$3.33B	―	-2.75%	―	13.39%	16.12%
SEMR	63 Neutral	$1.36B	196.77	2.81%	―	22.75%	-47.45%
QTWO	62 Neutral	$5.89B	―	-3.95%	―	13.12%	75.24%
Sector *	59 Neutral	€3.24B	12.45	-9.91%	2.76%	2.38%	-49.53%
NRDY	48 Neutral	$307.55M	―	-104.69%	―	-1.64%	9.99%

nCino Corporate Events

nCino Stockholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

On June 18, 2025, nCino held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where 92% of eligible shares were represented. During the meeting, stockholders elected two Class II directors, ratified Ernst & Young LLP as the independent auditor for the fiscal year ending January 31, 2026, approved executive compensation, and passed amendments for board declassification.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCNO) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on nCino stock, see the NCNO Stock Forecast page.

nCino Announces Workforce and Office Space Reductions

On May 27, 2025, nCino, Inc. announced a workforce reduction of approximately seven percent and office space reductions in certain markets to improve operational efficiencies. The company anticipates incurring charges between $7.5 to $9.0 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, primarily for severance, related benefits, and asset disposals, with the aim of excluding these charges from its non-GAAP financial measures.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCNO) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on nCino stock, see the NCNO Stock Forecast page.