nCino (NCNO)
NASDAQ:NCNO
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nCino
(NASDAQ:NCNO)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▼(-2.49% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance (stronger free cash flow, stable ~60% gross margins, and low leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook with significant expected free-cash-flow expansion. These positives are tempered by weak technical trends (below key moving averages, negative MACD) and a very high P/E with no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Recurring SaaS revenue & ACV growth
Strong ACV growth and a 112% net retention rate indicate a durable, subscription-driven revenue base with meaningful upsell and cross-sell potential. This recurring revenue profile reduces churn risk, supports predictable cash flows, and underpins multi-year revenue visibility and customer lifetime value expansion.
Negative Factors
Thin GAAP profitability and limited operating leverage
GAAP profitability remains marginal despite revenue scale; net margin near 1% and operating income only recently positive indicate limited durable operating leverage. A small earnings cushion leaves results sensitive to cost inflation, slower revenue growth, or higher AI/inference and self-insurance costs, pressuring long-term margin improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring SaaS revenue & ACV growth
Strong ACV growth and a 112% net retention rate indicate a durable, subscription-driven revenue base with meaningful upsell and cross-sell potential. This recurring revenue profile reduces churn risk, supports predictable cash flows, and underpins multi-year revenue visibility and customer lifetime value expansion.
Read all positive factors
nCino (NCNO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.06B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.97M
Price to Earnings (P/E)72.8
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth10.01%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,833
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding114,534,700
10 Day Avg. Volume3,572,371
30 Day Avg. Volume2,974,385
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-4.04
Price to Book (P/B)2.28
Price to Sales (P/S)4.05
P/FCF Ratio29.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.09
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda41.66
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.36Price Target Upside26.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)1.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$641.93M
nCino Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
nCino, Inc., a software-as-a-service company, provides cloud-based software applications to financial institutions in the United States and internationally. Its nCino Bank Operating System, a tenant cloud platform, which digitizes, automates, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
nCino primarily makes money by selling access to its cloud software platform under a subscription (SaaS) model, where customers pay recurring fees—typically tied to contract terms and usage metrics such as number of users, deployed modules, or rel...
nCino Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Remaining Performance Obligations
Indicates the value of contracted revenue yet to be recognized, providing insight into future revenue streams and business stability.
Indicates the value of contracted revenue yet to be recognized, providing insight into future revenue streams and business stability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlynCino Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 31, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflects a materially positive operational and financial inflection: strong ACV growth (+17%), improved retention (112%), accelerating subscription revenue and total revenue growth, expanding profitability (non-GAAP operating income and net income improvements) and significantly improved free cash flow (+55% YoY). AI adoption and platform pricing transition (38% ACV) are cited as durable growth drivers and competitive moats supported by a large anonymized dataset. Pressure points include a near-term international Q4 comp, flat professional services revenue, conservative mortgage assumptions in guidance, and the inherent unpredictability of large deal timing. Management has enacted active capital return (share repurchases) and reiterated FY27 guidance that anticipates continued growth and substantial free cash flow expansion.Positive Updates
ACV Growth and Retention Improvement
Annual Contract Value (ACV) reached $602.4M, up 17% year-over-year (13% organic constant currency). ACV net retention rate improved to 112% (109% organic constant currency), up from 106% in fiscal '25.
Negative Updates
International Q4 Headwinds
International total revenues in Q4 were $32.9M, down 1% YoY and down 6% in constant currency, driven in part by a difficult comparison to a one-time contract buyout in Q4 of fiscal '25. International subscription revenues in Q4 were up 1% YoY but down 4% in constant currency.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
ACV Growth and Retention Improvement
Annual Contract Value (ACV) reached $602.4M, up 17% year-over-year (13% organic constant currency). ACV net retention rate improved to 112% (109% organic constant currency), up from 106% in fiscal '25.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
nCino guided Q1 FY27 total revenues of $154.5M–$156.5M and subscription revenues of $137M–$139M (midpoint growth ~8% total, ~10% subs), with non‑GAAP operating income of about $38M–$40M; for FY27 the company expects free cash flow of $132M–$137M (midpoint +63% YoY), total revenues $639M–$643M, subscription revenues $569M–$573M (midpoint +8–9% YoY; ex‑U.S. mortgage +10–11%), non‑GAAP operating income $165M–$170M, ACV net additions of $60M–$65M to an ending ACV of $662.5M–$667.5M (~10% growth at midpoint), and noted assumptions including ~$15M interest expense, $6M cash taxes, $1.5M capex, ~1% U.S. mortgage growth for planning, international subscription revenues accretive from Q1, a ~100 bps reduction in stock‑based comp as a percent of revenue from FY26’s 12%, seasonality with the highest cash collections in Q1, and that intelligence‑unit monetization is expected to ramp but is not fully reflected in FY27 subscription revenue guidance.nCino Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 594.78M | 540.66M | 476.54M | 408.31M | 273.87M |
| Gross Profit | 360.17M | 324.79M | 285.07M | 238.71M | 162.45M |
| EBITDA | 3.73M | 9.55M | 7.46M | -56.47M | -62.43M |
| Net Income | 5.18M | -37.88M | -42.35M | -102.72M | -49.45M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.65B | 1.61B | 1.34B | 1.33B | 1.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 88.37M | 120.93M | 112.08M | 82.04M | 88.01M |
| Total Debt | 278.69M | 236.82M | 74.23M | 96.54M | 48.84M |
| Total Liabilities | 579.45M | 512.78M | 287.83M | 299.60M | 230.51M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.06B | 1.09B | 1.05B | 1.02B | 1.07B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 82.56M | 52.93M | 53.41M | -34.28M | -24.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 90.06M | 55.20M | 57.28M | -15.38M | -19.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -54.08M | -219.18M | -5.34M | -20.73M | -278.49M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -73.03M | 170.48M | -22.10M | 36.71M | 15.92M |
nCino Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.46
Price Trends
16.34
Positive
20.36
Negative
24.12
Negative
Market Momentum
0.51
Negative
64.28
Neutral
82.06
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCNO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.47, above the 50-day MA of 16.34, and below the 200-day MA of 24.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NCNO.
nCino Risk Analysis
nCino disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. nCino reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
nCino Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $2.51B | 4.52 | 18.70% | ― | 16.43% | ― | |
72 Outperform | $3.35B | 27.67 | 11.91% | ― | 14.00% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $2.06B | 72.83 | 0.49% | ― | 10.01% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $1.94B | 23.63 | 7.96% | ― | 2.90% | 361.26% | |
66 Neutral | $1.90B | -156.46 | -5.49% | ― | 16.84% | 0.51% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
54 Neutral | $1.99B | 168.71 | 6.57% | ― | 7.21% | -84.63% |
* Technology Sector Average
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nCino Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
nCino Posts Record Results and Launches Debt-Funded Buyback
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
On March 30, 2026, nCino amended its credit agreement to add a $200 million senior secured term loan maturing in 2029, with flexible prepayment and leverage and interest coverage covenants typical for such facilities. The loan, guaranteed and secu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.