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Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)
NYSE:YOU
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Clear Secure
(NYSE:YOU)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(13.53% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is driven primarily by strong fundamentals (profitability and especially free cash flow strength) and a very constructive earnings call with upbeat 2026 free-cash-flow guidance and expanded capital returns. Valuation is supportive (mid-teens P/E with a ~2.3% yield), while technical signals are more neutral and limit the overall score.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow
Consistent and rising free cash flow (FCF) provides durable financial flexibility. With FCF at $343M in 2025, Clear can fund product development, enterprise deployments, and capital returns without depending on external financing, supporting sustainable reinvestment and shareholder returns.
De‑risked capital structure
Elimination of debt materially reduces financial risk and interest expense sensitivity. A debt‑free balance sheet improves optionality for M&A, R&D, and buybacks while increasing resilience to cyclical shocks, enabling durable strategic execution over the next several quarters.
Enterprise traction & product expansion
Scaling membership and accelerating enterprise bookings, plus app relaunches, eGates and concierge rollouts and major partnerships, diversify revenue channels. Strong enterprise momentum and product wins improve stickiness and long‑term growth visibility beyond travel.
Negative Factors
Eroding equity cushion
A shrinking equity base relative to assets reduces the balance‑sheet shock absorber and magnifies downside risk from asset writedowns or unexpected liabilities. This weaker equity cushion constrains financial flexibility and raises the stakes for sustaining strong cash flow and profitability.
Travel & government exposure
A meaningful portion of transactions depends on travel and government operations; prolonged disruptions or policy changes can lower usage and recurring fees. This structural exposure makes revenue and utilization cycles sensitive to macro and regulatory events over multiple quarters.
Rising identity threats & regulatory complexity
Escalating fraud sophistication and potential regulatory scrutiny require sustained R&D, compliance investment, and product adaptation. These structural demands raise operating costs and competitive pressure, and increase execution risk if Clear fails to stay ahead of adversarial tech and rules.
Clear Secure (YOU) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.46B
Dividend Yield2.11%
Average Volume (3M)1.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)29.9
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth17.83%
EPS Growth118.70%
CountryUS
Employees4,022
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding97,432,380
10 Day Avg. Volume1,260,052
30 Day Avg. Volume1,302,241
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.37
Price to Book (P/B)18.84
Price to Sales (P/S)3.72
P/FCF Ratio9.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.84
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.64
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.77
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.50Price Target Upside29.97% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Clear Secure Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionClear Secure, Inc. provides a member-centric secure identity platform in the United States. The company's secure identity platform is a multi-layered infrastructure consisting of front-end, including enrollment, verification, and linking. It also offers CLEAR Plus, a consumer aviation subscription service, which enables access to predictable entry lanes in airport security checkpoints, as well as access to broader network; and CLEAR app, a consumer-facing digital product that facilitates new user enrollment and member engagement from their mobile device. In addition, the company provides Reserve powered by CLEAR, a virtual queuing technology that provides users with the choice of how they queue either at home or on the move; and Atlas Certified, an automated solution to verify professional licenses and certification data across industries by communicating with certifying organizations for on-demand, current, and trusted data. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyClear Secure generates revenue through subscription fees charged to users who enroll in its identity verification services. Additionally, the company partners with airports, sports venues, and other organizations, often receiving a fee for each user that utilizes its services at their locations. This partnership model not only expands Clear's user base but also allows it to secure contracts that ensure a steady income stream. Furthermore, Clear may also explore additional monetization avenues, such as data analytics services or partnerships that enhance security solutions for various sectors.
Clear Secure Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong growth across bookings, revenue, membership scale, enterprise momentum (ClearOne), and significant margin and free cash flow expansion. Operational improvements, product launches (app, eGates, Concierge), and large partnerships (American Express, CMS, Mount Sinai) reinforce multi-channel growth. Lowlights were limited to a one-time billing cleanup, exposure to travel-sector disruptions and government risk, and the broader escalating identity-threat environment. Overall the positives—robust top-line growth, record profitability, strong cash generation, and enterprise traction—substantially outweigh the limited operational and market risks discussed.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth (Q4 and FY2025)
Q4 revenue of $240.8M, up 16.7% year-over-year; full-year 2025 revenue of $900.8M, up 16.9% year-over-year.
Bookings Acceleration
Q4 total bookings of $287.1M, up 25.4% year-over-year; full-year bookings of $977.2M, up 17.2% year-over-year. Management called Q4 bookings growth 'north of 25%,' the highest since Q4 2023.
Membership Scale and ClearOne Momentum
Total Clear members grew to 38.0M, up 31.5% year-over-year. Active CLEAR Plus members reached 7.6M, up 6% year-over-year. ClearOne had its largest bookings quarter and more than doubled bookings year-over-year in Q4, and signed the largest number of new enterprise customers on record.
Record Profitability and Margin Expansion
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $79.9M and adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.2%, an increase of 870 basis points versus Q4 2024. Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $262.2M and adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.1%, a 4.8 percentage-point expansion year-over-year.
Robust Free Cash Flow and Cash Position
Full-year net cash provided by operating activities of $372.5M and free cash flow of $343.1M (after $29.3M capex), significantly ahead of guidance. Ended 2025 with $703.0M of cash and marketable securities and expect to exit 2026 with over $1.0B and no debt.
Capital Returns and Share Count Reduction
Returned over $240M of capital in 2025, repurchased 5.3M shares for $106.3M (reducing shares outstanding by 3% to 133.2M). Total shares outstanding down ~14M (9%) since IPO. Board increased quarterly dividend by 20% (from $0.125 to $0.15) and authorized an additional $125M to repurchase program (total ~ $250M capacity).
Operational Improvements and Efficiency Gains
Cost of direct salaries & benefits improved to 19.3% of revenue (≈390 basis point improvement year-over-year). Full-year G&A grew at less than half the pace of revenue; stock-based compensation fell to 4.3% of revenue, showing disciplined dilution management.
Product & Partnership Progress
Relaunched mobile app, expanded Concierge to ~30 airports, rolled out eGates (late-Q4 deployments), extended multi-year partnership with American Express, and secured significant healthcare/enterprise traction including a multiyear integration with CMS and new healthcare partnerships (e.g., Mount Sinai).
Negative Updates
Billing System Migration — One-Time Account Cleanup
Q4 active CLEAR Plus members (7.6M, +6% YoY) reflected a one-time cleanup of lapsed accounts as part of a billing system transformation. Management stated this had no impact on revenue, cash flow, or other financial measures, but it was an operational disruption to reported active member counts.
Exposure to Travel Sector Disruptions and Government Risks
Travel industry instability (weather, potential government/TSA shutdowns) remains a risk. Management emphasized Clear's ability to stay open and serve partners during disruptions, but the company is still exposed to macro or government-related travel interruptions that can affect usage patterns.
Evolving Identity Threat Landscape — Market Challenge
Management highlighted increasing identity threats (deepfakes, AI-driven fraud) as a growing market challenge. While positioned as a growth opportunity for ClearOne, this trend also implies rising complexity, regulatory scrutiny, and the need for continual investment to stay ahead of sophisticated adversaries.
Company Guidance
Clear guided full‑year 2026 free cash flow of at least $440.0M (≈$100M higher than 2025, at least +28% YoY), expects GAAP P&L taxes of 18–20%, and projects accelerating top‑line growth and margin expansion; Q1 2026 revenue is guided to $242–245M (midpoint $243.5M, ~15.2% YoY growth) and total bookings to $248–253M (midpoint $250.5M, ~20.9% YoY growth). The company also expects to exit 2026 with >$1.0B of cash and no debt, raised the quarterly dividend 20% to $0.15/share, and approved a $125M increase to its repurchase program (total capacity ≈$250M).Clear Secure Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong multi-year revenue expansion and a clear shift to solid profitability (net income $244M in 2025) supported by very strong and rising free cash flow ($343M in 2025). Balance sheet risk improved with debt reduced to zero, but the declining equity base versus assets is a key watch item and keeps this below top-tier.Income Statement
Revenue has scaled materially from $231M (2020) to $901M (2025), showing strong multi-year expansion, though growth slowed to ~4% in 2025 versus a much faster pace in 2022–2024. Profitability has meaningfully improved: the company moved from losses in 2020–2022 to solid profits in 2023–2025, culminating in $244M net income in 2025. Gross profit dollars are strong and improving, but the historical volatility (loss-making years and swingy operating profit) keeps the score below top-tier.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable and has improved: total debt declined from ~$121–130M (2022–2024) to $0 in 2025, which materially de-risks the capital structure. However, the equity base remains relatively modest versus the asset base (2025 equity of ~$178M vs. ~$1.30B assets), and equity has trended down from 2022–2025, which reduces balance-sheet cushion. Prior years’ debt-to-equity was moderate (~0.45–0.61), but shrinking equity is a key watch item.74
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow rose from negative in 2020 to $372M in 2025, and free cash flow reached $343M in 2025 with strong growth (about 18% in 2025). Free cash flow has consistently exceeded earlier levels and is broadly supported by profits in recent years (e.g., close to net income in 2023–2024). The main weakness is earlier-period volatility (including negative cash flow in 2020), but the current trajectory is strong and supportive of reinvestment/return of capital.88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 900.78M | 770.49M | 613.58M | 437.43M | 253.95M |
| Gross Profit | 772.93M | 489.34M | 382.11M | 276.38M | 149.02M |
| EBITDA | 240.69M | 149.67M | 41.79M | -110.27M | -102.58M |
| Net Income | 243.99M | 169.68M | 28.11M | -65.57M | -36.08M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.30B | 1.19B | 1.05B | 1.04B | 812.75M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 700.17M | 609.50M | 723.10M | 704.75M | 615.34M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 121.25M | 127.38M | 130.11M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 1.10B | 956.99M | 675.78M | 526.60M | 273.28M |
| Stockholders Equity | 177.73M | 198.35M | 233.33M | 291.06M | 277.61M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 343.11M | 283.67M | 198.90M | 136.40M | 40.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 372.45M | 295.68M | 225.03M | 168.31M | 69.71M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -97.10M | 113.78M | -15.51M | -359.59M | -403.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -257.33M | -401.55M | -216.01M | -48.87M | 503.40M |
Clear Secure Technical Analysis
Positive
33.47
Price Trends
34.83
Negative
33.94
Negative
32.03
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.31
Negative
49.57
Neutral
68.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YOU, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.96, below the 50-day MA of 34.83, and above the 200-day MA of 32.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for YOU.
Clear Secure Risk Analysis
Clear Secure disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Clear Secure reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Clear Secure Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $4.46B | 29.88 | 130.93% | 2.11% | 17.83% | 118.70% | |
69 Neutral | $4.18B | -153.75 | -3.92% | ― | 35.87% | 85.20% | |
68 Neutral | $4.20B | ― | -0.64% | ― | 11.63% | 50.72% | |
67 Neutral | $2.95B | 60.45 | 8.82% | ― | 13.93% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $5.81B | -50.23 | -20.63% | ― | 24.19% | 58.84% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $3.28B | -124.55 | ― | ― | 19.86% | 8.58% |
* Technology Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.