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JFrog (FROG)
NASDAQ:FROG
US Market

JFrog (FROG) AI Stock Analysis

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JFrog

(NASDAQ:FROG)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(7.06%Upside)
JFrog's overall score reflects strong financial execution with significant revenue growth and cash flow improvements, supported by positive earnings call sentiments. However, profitability challenges and technical overbought conditions weigh on the score, highlighting areas for caution. The corporate event of CEO's dual role approval boosts leadership confidence but has a lesser impact on the overall score.
Positive Factors
AI and Machine Learning
JFrog is proving to be the next tangible AI beneficiary, with strong growth in AI-related packages contributing to cloud revenue and overage.
Revenue Growth
Total revenue accelerated to 22% year-over-year, surpassing consensus expectations by about 4%.
Strategic Partnerships
A strategic partnership with Microsoft GitHub has advanced to a joint go-to-market effort, creating a substantial pipeline.
Negative Factors
Cloud Revenue Trends
Cloud revenue strength was partially driven by over-commitment consumption, and management cautioned that this may not signal a sustainable trend amid macro uncertainty.
Conservative Guidance
Management's conservative guidance framework excludes potential upside from large customer migrations and usage overages beyond committed consumption levels, leaving meaningful room for outperformance.

JFrog (FROG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

JFrog Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJFrog Ltd. (NASDAQ: FROG) is a leading software company that specializes in DevOps solutions, focusing on continuous integration and continuous delivery (CI/CD) technologies. Headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, JFrog provides an array of tools and services that enable organizations to automate and streamline their software development processes. Its core products include JFrog Artifactory, JFrog Xray, JFrog Pipelines, and other related solutions that help manage and secure the software release lifecycle across different environments.
How the Company Makes MoneyJFrog makes money primarily through the sale of subscription-based licenses for its software solutions. The company's revenue model is centered around annual or multi-year subscriptions that give customers access to its suite of DevOps tools. JFrog offers various subscription tiers, which cater to different organizational sizes and needs, from small startups to large enterprises. Additional revenue is generated from professional services such as training, support, and consulting, which help clients optimize their use of JFrog products. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships and integrations with major cloud providers like Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform, which enhance its product offerings and extend its market reach.

JFrog Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 24.50%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflected a strong start to the fiscal year with significant revenue growth, increased customer base, and strategic partnerships enhancing the product offerings. However, there are challenges with extended sales cycles and macroeconomic uncertainties impacting the future outlook. Despite these challenges, the positive achievements and growth suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
JFrog's total revenue for Q1 2025 was $122.4 million, up 22% year-over-year. Cloud revenue for the quarter was $52.6 million, representing a 42% year-over-year growth. The growth in cloud revenue was driven by increased customer usage beyond contractual commitments.
Increased Customer Base
JFrog's greater than $1 million customers grew to 54 compared to 40 in the previous year, a 35% increase. Customers spending more than $100,000 annually grew to 1,051 compared to 911 last year, a 15% increase.
Launch of JFrog ML
JFrog announced that all cloud enterprise customers now have access to JFrog ML, providing machine learning and model management technologies as part of their software supply chain solution.
Strong Operating Margin and Cash Flow
Operating margin for Q1 was 17.4%, demonstrating a commitment to profitable growth. Cash flow from operations was $28.8 million, with free cash flow reaching $28.1 million, or a 23% margin.
Major Partnership with Hugging Face
JFrog partnered with Hugging Face to secure their repository of 1.5 million open-source ML models, providing greater peace of mind for developers creating AI-powered applications.
Negative Updates
Extended Sales Cycles and Delayed Decisions
Purchasing and budget constraints across the portfolio persist, resulting in longer sales cycles and delayed decisions to convert into higher usage tiers.
Uncertain Macroeconomic Environment
The guidance for the full year does not fully capture the Q1 outperformance due to the volatile macroeconomic environment, which has grown more uncertain relative to the beginning of the fiscal year.
Company Guidance
In the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, JFrog reported robust financial results, with total revenue reaching $122.4 million, marking a 22% year-over-year increase. The company's cloud revenue grew significantly by 42% year-over-year to $52.6 million, contributing to 43% of total revenue, driven by heightened customer data consumption. JFrog's operating margin improved to 17.4%, showing a commitment to profitable growth amid market uncertainty. The number of customers spending over $1 million annually rose to 54, a 35% increase from the previous year, while those spending more than $100,000 grew to 1,051, a 15% rise. The company maintained a strong net dollar retention rate of 116%, with gross retention at 97%. In terms of cash flow, JFrog generated $28.8 million from operations, resulting in free cash flow of $28.1 million or a 23% margin. Despite these positive developments, JFrog exercised caution in its future outlook due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, projecting total revenues for the full year 2025 to be between $500 million and $505 million, with non-GAAP operating income expected to range from $74 million to $77 million.

JFrog Financial Statement Overview

Summary
JFrog demonstrates strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, which are key strengths in the software application industry. The company maintains a solid balance sheet with low leverage. However, persistent net losses and negative profit margins indicate ongoing profitability challenges that need addressing to enhance shareholder value.
Income Statement
75
Positive
JFrog has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM increase from $428.5M to $450.6M, indicating a healthy upward trajectory. However, profitability remains a challenge as reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The gross profit margin is strong, but net profit margin is negative due to ongoing net losses, pointing to areas needing cost control improvements.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting prudent financial management and low leverage risk. Stockholders' equity has grown steadily, reflecting strong asset management. However, the consistent net losses impact the return on equity, which remains negative, indicating challenges in generating returns for shareholders.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow from operations has improved significantly, indicating strong cash generation capability. Free cash flow growth is positive, with a healthy free cash flow to net income ratio, showing efficient conversion of income into cash. Despite high investing cash outflows, the overall cash flow position is robust, offering flexibility for future investments.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue450.58M428.49M349.89M280.04M206.68M150.83M
Gross Profit342.36M330.19M272.84M217.75M164.86M122.38M
EBITDA-85.41M-69.64M-60.24M-75.19M-59.62M-10.53M
Net Income-78.95M-69.24M-61.26M-90.18M-64.20M-9.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.16B1.13B972.56M871.22M852.53M689.23M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments563.51M522.01M545.01M443.20M421.13M598.06M
Total Debt12.17M13.98M22.23M23.96M27.31M0.00
Total Liabilities356.19M356.38M293.43M246.45M213.95M135.34M
Stockholders Equity800.04M773.53M679.12M624.77M638.58M553.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow119.30M107.78M72.17M16.80M23.07M25.94M
Operating Cash Flow122.25M110.92M74.16M21.43M27.90M29.46M
Investing Cash Flow-164.22M-165.36M-53.48M-53.34M-125.55M-311.80M
Financing Cash Flow16.14M21.23M18.37M11.03M1.44M406.13M

JFrog Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price43.90
Price Trends
50DMA
39.47
Positive
100DMA
37.03
Positive
200DMA
33.84
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.78
Positive
RSI
63.61
Neutral
STOCH
91.50
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FROG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 42.48, above the 50-day MA of 39.47, and above the 200-day MA of 33.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.78 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 63.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.50 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FROG.

JFrog Risk Analysis

JFrog disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JFrog reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JFrog Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$2.80B23.8317.27%6.72%43.44%
72
Outperform
$4.37B-6.85%20.46%39.37%
68
Neutral
$5.03B-10.47%21.66%-50.24%
63
Neutral
$2.97B-22.82%22.66%21.20%
60
Neutral
$3.09B-3.84%4.82%73.90%
58
Neutral
$3.13B-83.36%9.84%13.74%
56
Neutral
$3.16B4.94-5.68%5.81%7.96%-51.05%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
FROG
JFrog
43.90
6.47
17.29%
ALRM
Alarm
56.35
-6.44
-10.26%
ASAN
Asana
13.28
-0.71
-5.08%
GBTG
Global Business Travel Group
6.45
0.16
2.54%
FRSH
Freshworks
14.82
2.01
15.69%
BRZE
Braze
26.76
-12.65
-32.10%

JFrog Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
JFrog Approves CEO’s Dual Role in AGM
Positive
May 22, 2025

On May 20, 2025, JFrog Ltd. held its annual general meeting where several key proposals were voted on and passed. These included the re-election of directors, the re-appointment of independent auditors, and various changes to executive and board compensation policies. Additionally, the meeting approved Shlomi Ben Haim’s dual role as CEO and Chairman for three years, reflecting shareholder support for the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (FROG) stock is a Buy with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JFrog stock, see the FROG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 23, 2025