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JFrog (FROG)
NASDAQ:FROG
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JFrog
(NASDAQ:FROG)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$57.00
▲(10.29% Upside)
The score is supported primarily by strong cash generation and a low-leverage balance sheet, reinforced by earnings-call guidance pointing to improved non-GAAP profitability. Offsetting this, technicals are weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and valuation is constrained by ongoing GAAP losses (negative P/E) alongside guidance indicating slower growth.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow despite GAAP losses provides durable internal funding for R&D, customer success, and strategic M&A. Strong cash conversion lowers refinancing risk and gives management flexibility to invest through a multi-quarter growth normalization period.
Very Low Leverage & Liquidity
Extremely low leverage and a large cash position create durable financial flexibility to fund scale, weather cyclical pressures, and pursue tuck-in acquisitions. The balance sheet supports multi-quarter operating losses while preserving options for strategic investments without immediate dilution.
Cloud Momentum & High Retention
Rapid cloud revenue growth and >115% net dollar retention indicate sticky, recurring ARR and strong upsell within customers. As cloud share rises, recurring revenues and larger accounts improve predictability and long-term lifetime value, aligning with structural industry migration to cloud-native DevOps.
Negative Factors
Guidance: Growth Deceleration
A durable slowdown in projected revenue growth reduces operating leverage and slows the pace at which scale converts to sustainable GAAP profits. Lower top-line expansion compresses long-term upside in margins and elongates the timeline to deliver sustained ROE and shareholder returns.
Ongoing GAAP Losses / Negative ROE
Persisting GAAP losses and negative ROE show the capital base is not yet delivering accounting profitability. Even with strong cash flow, sustained GAAP deficits can limit investor returns, constrain incentive alignment, and require continued operational improvements to turn scale into durable GAAP earnings.
Cloud Usage Volatility & Deal Timing Risk
Usage-driven cloud revenue introduces recurring volatility in quarter-to-quarter realization of ARR and overage revenue. That structural variability complicates forecasting, can mute margin visibility, and forces conservative guidance, reducing the company’s ability to monetize upside from transient AI/usage spikes.
JFrog (FROG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.11B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.53M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth22.69%
EPS Growth-32.47%
CountryUS
Employees1,600
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding118,312,836
10 Day Avg. Volume4,063,850
30 Day Avg. Volume2,532,780
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio63.67
Price to Book (P/B)8.18
Price to Sales (P/S)13.65
P/FCF Ratio51.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.91
Enterprise Value/Revenue10.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit13.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-90.11
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$71.65Price Target Upside38.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering19
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
JFrog Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionJFrog Ltd. provides DevOps platform in the United States. The company's products include JFrog Artifactory, a package repository that allows teams and organizations to store, update, and manage their software packages at any scale; JFrog Pipelines, an integration/continuous delivery tool for automating and orchestrating the movement of software packages; JFrog Xray, which scan JFrog Artifactory; and JFrog Distribution that provides software package distribution with enterprise-grade performance. Its products include JFrog Artifactory Edge that utilizes and leverages metadata from JFrog Artifactory to facilitate the transfer of the incremental changes in software packages from their previous versions; JFrog Mission Control, a platform control panel that provides a view of moving pieces of an organization's software supply chain workflow; JFrog Insight, a DevOps intelligence tool; and JFrog Connect, a device management solution that allows companies to manage software updates and monitor performance across IoT device fleets from anywhere in the world. The company's products also comprise JFrog Pro, JFrog Pro Team, JFrog Pro X, JFrog Enterprise, JFrog Enterprise X, and JFrog Enterprise Plus products that offer ongoing updates, upgrades, and bug fixes, as well as cluster configuration, multi-site replication, and SLA support. It serves technology, financial services, retail, healthcare, and telecommunications organizations. JFrog Ltd. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyJFrog generates revenue primarily through a subscription-based model for its software products, which are offered in various tiers to accommodate different organizational needs. Their key revenue streams include licenses for JFrog Artifactory, JFrog Pipelines, and JFrog Xray, as well as premium support services. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with major cloud service providers, which enhance its visibility and integration capabilities, thereby attracting more customers. Additionally, JFrog may earn revenue through professional services and training for clients seeking to optimize their DevOps practices.
JFrog Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Shows profitability across various business segments, highlighting strengths and potential areas for cost management or improvement.
Shows profitability across various business segments, highlighting strengths and potential areas for cost management or improvement.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyJFrog Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a majority of positive operational and financial developments: robust top-line growth driven by cloud, strong RPO and retention, meaningful security ARR and RPO momentum, solid cash balances, and strategic AI/MLOps partnerships. Notable headwinds include guidance deceleration to ~17.5% growth for 2026, cloud usage volatility, FX-related expense pressure, modest near-term revenue contribution from security despite ARR strength, and some margin normalization due to cloud mix. Overall, the company emphasized disciplined guidance, de-risking of large deals, and continued investment in strategic initiatives while converting usage into annual commitments.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue Growth
Total revenue for fiscal year 2025 was $531,800,000, up 24% year over year, with Q4 revenue of $145,300,000 up 25% year over year.
Strong Cloud Momentum
Full-year cloud revenue was $243,300,000, up 45% year over year and representing 46% of total revenues (vs. 39% prior year). Q4 cloud revenue was $70,200,000, up 42% year over year and 48% of Q4 revenues.
Customer Base Upshift to Larger Accounts
Customers spending more than $100,000 annually grew to 1,168 from 1,018 (50% YoY growth); customers > $1,000,000 grew to 74 from 52 (42% YoY growth).
Security Product Traction
Security core products comprised over 10% of total ARR and represented 16% of ending RPO as of 12/31/2025 (up from 12% prior year); security core revenue was 7% of total revenues for 2025, indicating meaningful ARR penetration and RPO momentum.
RPO and Retention Strength
Remaining performance obligation (RPO) totaled $566,000,000, up 40% year over year. Net dollar retention for the trailing four quarters was 119% (up 1 percentage point sequentially) and gross retention remained high at 97%.
Healthy Profitability and Cash Generation
Q4 gross margin was 83.7% (vs. 83.2% prior year). Q4 operating profit was $25,700,000 (17.7% operating margin). FY2025 non-GAAP EPS was $0.82, up 26% year over year. FY2025 operating cash flow was $145,700,000 and free cash flow was $142,200,000 (27% margin).
Stronger Balance Sheet
Cash and short-term investments ended FY2025 at $704,000,000 versus $522,000,000 at the end of 2024, underpinning liquidity for investments and M&A optionality.
Strategic AI & Partnership Wins
Launched JFrog ML, MCP server, AI Catalog and agentic remediation; secured partnerships with NVIDIA Enterprise AI Factory and Hugging Face to be a secure model/artifact registry and expand go-to-market reach.
Negative Updates
Slower Overall Growth Outlook
Full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $623–$628 million implies ~17.5% year over year growth at the midpoint, a deceleration from 24% growth in FY2025.
Cloud Usage Volatility and Deal Timing Risk
Management cited increased cloud usage and early AI workload trends that can create volatility (usage overage exposure) and timing uncertainty on large deals; guidance deliberately de-risks such variability.
Rising Operating Expenses and FX Headwind
Q4 operating expenses rose to $95,800,000 (66% of revenues) vs. $75,600,000 (65%) prior year; management called out a year-over-year headwind from a weakening U.S. dollar against global wages and included FX in operating profit guidance.
Margin Pressure from Cloud Mix
Management expects annual gross margins to normalize to ~82%–83% in 2026 given a higher cloud revenue mix and ongoing hosting cost optimization needs.
Free Cash Flow Margin Decline
Q4 free cash flow margin declined to 34% from 42% year ago; while FY free cash flow was strong ($142.2M), margins compressed compared to prior-year Q4.
On-Premise Business Growing Slower
Self-managed (on-prem) full-year revenues were $288,500,000, up only 11% year over year—lagging cloud growth and reflecting ongoing migration efforts.
Customer Count Consolidation and Geographic Churn
Company consolidated roughly 300 lower-ASP subsidiaries into parent entities (reducing logo counts) and noted churn/decisions in geographies like China and Russia as part of go-to-market refinement.
Security Revenue Still a Small Top-Line Component
Despite strong ARR and RPO traction, security core revenue remains a modest 7% of total revenues in 2025, indicating a gap between ARR momentum and near-term revenue contribution.
Company Guidance
JFrog's 2026 guidance calls for Q1 revenue of $146.0–148.0M, Q1 non‑GAAP operating profit of $25.0–26.0M and Q1 non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $0.20–0.22 (assuming ~127M shares); full‑year 2026 revenue of $623.0–628.0M (≈17.5% YoY at the midpoint), full‑year non‑GAAP operating income of $106–108M and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $0.88–0.92 (assuming ~128M shares). Management expects baseline cloud growth of 30–32% in 2026, net dollar retention of ~117%, and annual gross margins of ~82–83%, while calling out a FX‑related headwind to operating expenses and reiterating a conservative guidance philosophy that de‑risks large deals and does not bake in upside from cloud usage above contractual commitments.JFrog Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong balance sheet (very low leverage, growing equity) and consistently strong operating/free cash flow ($145.7M/$142.2M in FY2025) offset weak GAAP profitability and signs of growth deceleration in 2025.Income Statement
Revenue has scaled meaningfully over 2020–2025 (from ~$151M to ~$532M), but growth has decelerated sharply in 2025 (5.8% vs ~22–35% in prior years). Profitability is still the key drag: gross margins remain strong (~76–81%), yet operating losses persist, with 2025 still showing a sizable net loss (~-13.5% margin). The positive trend is improving efficiency versus 2022–2024 (loss margins narrowing), but the model has not reached sustained profitability.52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a clear strength: leverage is very low (debt-to-equity ~0.02 in 2025) and equity has steadily increased alongside asset growth (assets ~$1.34B in 2025). This provides flexibility to fund operations. The main weakness is returns: losses keep return on equity negative (still around -8% in 2025), indicating the capital base is not yet generating profits.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is strong despite accounting losses. Operating cash flow and free cash flow are solid and improving (2025 operating cash flow ~$146M; free cash flow ~$142M) with continued positive free cash flow growth. Free cash flow closely tracks the net loss magnitude (free cash flow to net income near 1.0 across recent years), signaling good cash conversion. The key risk is sustainability if growth remains muted while the company continues to operate at a net loss.85
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 531.84M | 428.49M | 349.89M | 280.04M | 206.68M |
| Gross Profit | 404.98M | 330.19M | 272.84M | 217.75M | 164.86M |
| EBITDA | -59.13M | -69.64M | -60.24M | -75.19M | -59.62M |
| Net Income | -71.82M | -69.24M | -61.26M | -90.18M | -64.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.34B | 1.13B | 972.56M | 871.22M | 852.53M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 705.13M | 522.01M | 545.01M | 443.20M | 421.13M |
| Total Debt | 19.13M | 20.16M | 36.18M | 40.79M | 47.32M |
| Total Liabilities | 453.93M | 356.38M | 293.43M | 246.45M | 213.95M |
| Stockholders Equity | 887.45M | 773.53M | 679.12M | 624.77M | 638.58M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 142.27M | 107.78M | 72.17M | 16.80M | 23.67M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 145.73M | 110.92M | 74.16M | 21.43M | 27.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -152.27M | -165.36M | -53.48M | -53.34M | -125.55M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 31.21M | 21.23M | 18.37M | 11.03M | 1.44M |
JFrog Technical Analysis
Negative
51.68
Price Trends
59.97
Negative
56.15
Negative
49.69
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.25
Negative
42.07
Neutral
60.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FROG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 54.39, below the 50-day MA of 59.97, and above the 200-day MA of 49.69, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FROG.
JFrog Risk Analysis
JFrog disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JFrog reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
JFrog Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $6.79B | 15.13 | 32.91% | ― | 50.91% | 54812.50% | |
70 Outperform | $3.80B | -133.16 | -3.92% | ― | 35.87% | 85.20% | |
68 Neutral | $4.65B | -198.52 | -0.64% | ― | 11.63% | 50.72% | |
68 Neutral | $4.98B | -113.83 | -5.17% | ― | 27.35% | 18.18% | |
64 Neutral | $6.11B | -83.44 | -8.65% | ― | 22.69% | -32.47% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $7.54B | -92.21 | -9.39% | ― | 24.27% | 73.11% |
* Technology Sector Average
FROG
JFrog
51.68
9.65
22.96%
BILL
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46.99
-13.04
-21.72%
COMP
Compass
10.41
2.43
30.45%
ZETA
Zeta Global Holdings Corp
15.46
-9.23
-37.38%
CWAN
Clearwater Analytics Holdings
23.15
-4.49
-16.24%
GTLB
Gitlab
29.55
-41.99
-58.69%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.