JFrog (FROG) AI Stock Analysis

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JFrog

(NASDAQ:FROG)

Rating:71Outperform

Price Target:

$49.00

▼(-0.75% Downside)

JFrog's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance in terms of revenue growth and cash flow management, supported by positive technical indicators. However, profitability challenges and valuation concerns due to negative earnings weigh on the score. The company's strategic partnerships and leadership confidence provide additional support, but macroeconomic uncertainties and cloud adoption challenges remain risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

JFrog's earnings materially outperformed expectations, indicating strong company performance.

Partnerships

Key partnerships with companies like Hugging Face are helping to drive JFrog's vision forward, emphasizing their Too integrated to fail model.

Revenue Growth

Cloud revenue growth of 45% significantly exceeded expectations and was driven by increased security adoption and customer conversion to larger contracts.

Negative Factors

Conservative Guidance

The management's conservative guidance approach indicates potential for outperforming current growth expectations, particularly in cloud services.

Market Uncertainty

FROG is maintaining a prudent outlook while acknowledging macro uncertainties, with pipeline opportunities continuing to build.

JFrog (FROG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$5.76B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.49M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.46

Revenue Growth21.97%

EPS Growth-69.32%

CountryUS

Employees1,600

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength87

IndustrySoftware - Application

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.18

Shares Outstanding116,741,770

10 Day Avg. Volume1,578,889

30 Day Avg. Volume1,487,574

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.77

Enterprise Value/Revenue9.39

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.44

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-83.18

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$52.00

Price Target Upside5.33% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering19

JFrog Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJFrog Ltd. provides DevOps platform in the United States. The company's products include JFrog Artifactory, a package repository that allows teams and organizations to store, update, and manage their software packages at any scale; JFrog Pipelines, an integration/continuous delivery tool for automating and orchestrating the movement of software packages; JFrog Xray, which scan JFrog Artifactory; and JFrog Distribution that provides software package distribution with enterprise-grade performance. Its products include JFrog Artifactory Edge that utilizes and leverages metadata from JFrog Artifactory to facilitate the transfer of the incremental changes in software packages from their previous versions; JFrog Mission Control, a platform control panel that provides a view of moving pieces of an organization's software supply chain workflow; JFrog Insight, a DevOps intelligence tool; and JFrog Connect, a device management solution that allows companies to manage software updates and monitor performance across IoT device fleets from anywhere in the world. The company's products also comprise JFrog Pro, JFrog Pro Team, JFrog Pro X, JFrog Enterprise, JFrog Enterprise X, and JFrog Enterprise Plus products that offer ongoing updates, upgrades, and bug fixes, as well as cluster configuration, multi-site replication, and SLA support. It serves technology, financial services, retail, healthcare, and telecommunications organizations. JFrog Ltd. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

How the Company Makes MoneyJFrog generates revenue primarily through a subscription-based model, offering various tiers of its products and services, including Artifactory, JFrog Xray, and JFrog Pipelines. These subscriptions are typically sold to enterprises needing robust solutions for managing software artifacts and dependencies. The company also provides additional services such as training, support, and consulting, which contribute to its revenue streams. Key partnerships with cloud service providers and integrations with popular CI/CD tools further enhance its market reach and sales opportunities. Additionally, the company offers a free tier to attract smaller teams and organizations, with the aim to convert them to paid plans as their needs grow.

JFrog Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Gross Profit by Segment

Gross Profit by Segment
Shows profitability across various business segments, highlighting strengths and potential areas for cost management or improvement.

Chart InsightsJFrog's Subscription Self-Managed and SaaS segment shows consistent growth, reflecting the company's strategic focus on cloud services, which aligns with the 42% year-over-year cloud revenue increase. The License Self-Managed segment, while more volatile, has recently rebounded, suggesting renewed interest or strategic shifts. The earnings call highlights robust financial health, with a 22% revenue increase and strong cash flow, but also notes challenges like extended sales cycles due to macroeconomic uncertainties. The launch of JFrog ML and partnerships like the one with Hugging Face could drive future growth despite these headwinds.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

JFrog Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects JFrog's strong financial performance and growth in its cloud and security segments, bolstered by strategic partnerships. However, challenges in cloud adoption due to AI cost predictability and macroeconomic uncertainties pose potential risks.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth

JFrog reported Q2 2025 software revenue of $127.2 million, up 23% year-over-year, with cloud revenue growing 45% year-over-year to $57.1 million.

Increased Large Customer Base

Customers spending over $1 million annually grew to 61, up 45% year-over-year, and those spending over $100,000 annually grew to 1,076, a 16% increase.

Robust Operating Margin

Operating margin for Q2 was 15.2%, showing consistent execution with disciplined strategic investments.

Partnership with NVIDIA

JFrog was announced as a cornerstone software artifact repository for NVIDIA's enterprise AI initiatives, enhancing its credibility in the AI ecosystem.

Strong Cash Flow and RPO Growth

Cash flow from operations was $36.1 million, with free cash flow reaching $35.5 million. RPO increased by 75% year-over-year, reflecting strong multi-year commitments.

Negative Updates

Cloud Growth Challenges

Uncertain costs of running AI at scale are causing some enterprises to reconsider their cloud-first strategies, potentially extending sales cycles.

Macroeconomic Uncertainties

Despite strong performance, JFrog exercises caution due to macroeconomic uncertainties, which could impact future growth.

Security Threats in AI

Emerging security threats tied to AI, particularly around MCP usage, are an ongoing concern that JFrog is addressing.

Company Guidance

In the JFrog Second Quarter 2025 earnings call, guidance was provided for both Q3 and the full fiscal year. For the full year 2025, JFrog anticipates revenues between $507 million to $510 million, representing approximately 18.7% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. Non-GAAP operating income is expected to be between $75 million and $78 million, with non-GAAP diluted earnings per share ranging from $0.68 to $0.70, based on an estimated share count of approximately 121 million. Cloud revenue growth is estimated to be between 34% to 36%, with expectations for net dollar retention to remain in the mid-teens throughout the year. For Q3, JFrog projects revenues between $127 million and $129 million, a non-GAAP operating profit between $16.5 million and $18.5 million, and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $0.15 to $0.17, assuming 122 million shares. These projections reflect cautious optimism amidst macroeconomic uncertainties and are supported by strong performance in cloud and security segments.

JFrog Financial Statement Overview

Summary

JFrog demonstrates strong revenue growth and cash flow generation, which are key strengths in the software application industry. The company maintains a solid balance sheet with low leverage. However, persistent net losses and negative profit margins indicate ongoing profitability challenges that need addressing to enhance shareholder value.

Income Statement

Positive

JFrog has shown consistent revenue growth, with a TTM increase from $428.5M to $450.6M, indicating a healthy upward trajectory. However, profitability remains a challenge as reflected in negative EBIT and EBITDA margins. The gross profit margin is strong, but net profit margin is negative due to ongoing net losses, pointing to areas needing cost control improvements.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting prudent financial management and low leverage risk. Stockholders' equity has grown steadily, reflecting strong asset management. However, the consistent net losses impact the return on equity, which remains negative, indicating challenges in generating returns for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow from operations has improved significantly, indicating strong cash generation capability. Free cash flow growth is positive, with a healthy free cash flow to net income ratio, showing efficient conversion of income into cash. Despite high investing cash outflows, the overall cash flow position is robust, offering flexibility for future investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	474.76M	428.49M	349.89M	280.04M	206.68M	150.83M
Gross Profit	358.57M	330.19M	272.84M	217.75M	164.86M	122.38M
EBITDA	-53.61M	-69.64M	-60.24M	-64.26M	-49.90M	-10.53M
Net Income	-86.32M	-69.24M	-61.26M	-90.18M	-64.20M	-9.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.21B	1.13B	972.56M	871.22M	852.53M	689.23M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	611.70M	522.01M	545.01M	443.20M	421.13M	598.06M
Total Debt	13.84M	13.98M	22.23M	23.96M	27.31M	0.00
Total Liabilities	381.73M	356.38M	293.43M	246.45M	213.95M	135.34M
Stockholders Equity	826.45M	773.53M	679.12M	624.77M	638.58M	553.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	138.79M	107.78M	72.17M	16.80M	23.07M	25.94M
Operating Cash Flow	141.63M	110.92M	74.16M	21.43M	27.90M	29.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-338.95M	-165.36M	-53.48M	-53.34M	-125.55M	-311.80M
Financing Cash Flow	30.41M	21.23M	18.37M	11.03M	1.44M	406.13M

JFrog Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price49.37

Price Trends

50DMA

43.11

Positive

100DMA

40.57

Positive

200DMA

36.89

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.80

Negative

RSI

64.99

Neutral

STOCH

91.33

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FROG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 49.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.67, above the 50-day MA of 43.11, and above the 200-day MA of 36.89, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.80 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FROG.

JFrog Risk Analysis

JFrog disclosed 70 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JFrog reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JFrog Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALRM	74 Outperform	$2.93B	24.68	17.95%	―	7.81%	20.84%
FROG	71 Outperform	$5.76B	―	-11.15%	―	21.97%	-69.32%
FRSH	68 Neutral	$3.93B	―	-5.23%	―	19.78%	47.51%
GBTG	64 Neutral	$3.99B	―	-4.72%	―	3.61%	-44.99%
BRZE	63 Neutral	$3.08B	―	-22.82%	―	22.66%	21.20%
ASAN	62 Neutral	$3.44B	―	-83.36%	―	9.84%	13.74%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.48B	7.63	-10.11%	1.88%	8.73%	-9.23%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FROG

JFrog

49.37

23.03

87.43%

ALRM

Alarm

58.63

0.44

0.76%

ASAN

Asana

14.60

1.31

9.86%

GBTG

Global Business Travel Group

8.34

1.42

20.52%

FRSH

Freshworks

13.47

1.94

16.83%

BRZE

Braze

27.70

-15.60

-36.03%

JFrog Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

JFrog Approves CEO’s Dual Role in AGM

Positive

May 22, 2025

On May 20, 2025, JFrog Ltd. held its annual general meeting where several key proposals were voted on and passed. These included the re-election of directors, the re-appointment of independent auditors, and various changes to executive and board compensation policies. Additionally, the meeting approved Shlomi Ben Haim’s dual role as CEO and Chairman for three years, reflecting shareholder support for the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025