Global Business Travel Group, Inc. (GBTG)
NYSE:GBTG
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Global Business Travel Group
(NYSE:GBTG)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(64.47% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/19/26
The score is driven by the take-private deal providing a strong price anchor and the earnings call’s reiterated growth/EBITDA guidance with measurable CWT synergy upside. These positives are tempered by weaker TTM free cash flow conversion and still-meaningful leverage, plus technically stretched conditions (RSI/Stoch elevated) that raise pullback risk.
Positive Factors
Multi-year Revenue Growth & Profitability
Sustained top-line expansion and a return to net profitability indicate durable demand recovery and scalable operations. Growing revenues across years provide a larger base for fixed-cost absorption, improving operating leverage and making earnings less sensitive to short-term trip volume swings.
Negative Factors
Sizable Leverage
Material debt levels constrain financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to interest-rate or demand shocks. With leverage still meaningful despite improvement, the company may face limited capacity for opportunistic investment or slower deleveraging if cash generation weakens or integration costs persist.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi-year Revenue Growth & Profitability
Sustained top-line expansion and a return to net profitability indicate durable demand recovery and scalable operations. Growing revenues across years provide a larger base for fixed-cost absorption, improving operating leverage and making earnings less sensitive to short-term trip volume swings.
Read all positive factors
Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.91B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.19M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.8
Beta (1Y)1.51
Revenue Growth20.67%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees19,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding521,455,930
10 Day Avg. Volume3,660,826
30 Day Avg. Volume5,188,918
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.22
Price to Book (P/B)2.49
Price to Sales (P/S)1.47
P/FCF Ratio38.51
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.24
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.07
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.53Price Target Upside40.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.25B
Global Business Travel Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. provides business-to-business (B2B) travel platform. The company's platform offers a suite of technology-enabled solutions to business travelers and corporate clients, travel content suppliers, and third-party tr...
How the Company Makes Money
GBTG primarily makes money by acting as an intermediary and service provider in corporate travel, earning revenue from a mix of transaction-driven and contractual sources. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Travel transaction and managemen...
Global Business Travel Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 09, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a positive and constructive outlook: the company reported strong full-year and Q4 growth (material revenue, TTV, and adjusted EBITDA increases), outlined clear AI-driven productivity and margin expansion opportunities, and provided explicit guidance and pro forma uplift from CWT synergies. Near-term challenges include integration-related margin dilution and one-time cash costs, seasonality changes, and geopolitical uncertainty (notably the Middle East), but management presented concrete synergy targets, demonstrated balance sheet strength, and doubled buyback authorization, supporting confidence in execution.Positive Updates
AI and Digital Adoption Driving Productivity
Digital transactions rose from ~60% to over 80% (cited ~83%), Egencia average booking time under three minutes, 57% of chats resolved without human intervention (deflection); management expects adjusted gross profit margin to expand 150–200 basis points per year over the next five years (targeting high sixties by 2030) driven largely by AI and automation.
Negative Updates
CWT Integration Margin Drag and Near-Term Noise
Consolidation of CWT into results caused a year‑over‑year reduction in reported margins (reported adjusted EBITDA margin modestly down), and the combined business exhibits different seasonality; pre-synergy CWT operations run at lower margins (temporary margin impact until synergies realized).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
AI and Digital Adoption Driving Productivity
Digital transactions rose from ~60% to over 80% (cited ~83%), Egencia average booking time under three minutes, 57% of chats resolved without human intervention (deflection); management expects adjusted gross profit margin to expand 150–200 basis points per year over the next five years (targeting high sixties by 2030) driven largely by AI and automation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated full‑year 2026 guidance for revenue of $3.235–$3.295 billion (up 19–21% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $615–$645 million (up 16–21% YoY), or pro forma $715–$745 million including the full $155 million of CWT synergies; free cash flow is expected to be $125–$155 million (or $235–$265 million excluding cash restructuring/CWT integration impacts), with ~40% FCF conversion at the midpoint; they expect $55 million of in‑year CWT synergies in 2026 ( $45 million already actioned) toward a $155 million total, project adjusted gross profit margin to expand 150–200 bps per year to the high‑60s by 2030, maintain net leverage at 1.9x (target range 1.5x–2.5x) after CWT, plan CapEx of ~4% of revenue, doubled buyback authorization to $600 million ( $103 million returned to date), and outlined seasonality of ~51% of revenue and ~53% of adjusted EBITDA in H1 ( ~25% of revenue and ~24% of adjusted EBITDA in Q1) with Q1 FCF largely breakeven and acceleration in Q2; guidance excludes any prolonged Middle East impact (the region ≈5% of revenue).Global Business Travel Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.94B | 2.72B | 2.42B | 2.29B | 1.85B | 763.00M |
| Gross Profit | 1.67B | 1.63B | 1.46B | 1.33B | 1.02B | 286.00M |
| EBITDA | 383.00M | 434.00M | 222.00M | 190.00M | -7.00M | -446.00M |
| Net Income | 86.00M | 109.00M | -138.00M | -63.00M | -25.00M | 0.00 |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.08B | 4.92B | 3.62B | 3.75B | 4.18B | 4.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 442.00M | 434.00M | 536.00M | 476.00M | 303.00M | 516.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.61B | 1.51B | 1.46B | 1.45B | 1.30B | 1.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.42B | 3.25B | 2.57B | 2.54B | 2.81B | 2.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.61B | 1.61B | 1.05B | 1.21B | 152.00M | 1.49B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.00M | 104.00M | 165.00M | 49.00M | -488.00M | -556.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 165.00M | 233.00M | 272.00M | 162.00M | -394.00M | -512.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -215.00M | -206.00M | -102.00M | -119.00M | -95.00M | -27.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -54.00M | -128.00M | -85.00M | 120.00M | 292.00M | 478.00M |
Global Business Travel Group Technical Analysis
Positive
6.08
Price Trends
6.64
Positive
6.59
Positive
7.22
Positive
Market Momentum
0.93
Negative
83.20
Negative
63.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBTG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.14, below the 50-day MA of 6.64, and below the 200-day MA of 7.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.93 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 83.20 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GBTG.
Global Business Travel Group Risk Analysis
Global Business Travel Group disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Global Business Travel Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Global Business Travel Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $2.16B | -207.33 | -2.53% | ― | 11.79% | 85.70% | |
70 Outperform | $2.64B | -118.25 | 18.54% | ― | 15.92% | ― | |
69 Neutral | $4.91B | 13.76 | 5.79% | ― | 20.67% | ― | |
62 Neutral | $1.08B | 16.46 | 8.36% | ― | 3.64% | 230.24% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $4.23B | -34.65 | -13.37% | ― | 23.05% | 56.65% | |
57 Neutral | $1.62B | -18.96 | -94.12% | ― | 9.25% | 28.34% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Global Business Travel Group Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Global Business Travel Shareholders Approve Directors and Governance
Positive
May 18, 2026
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 13, 2026, where shareholders voted on proposals related to board elections, auditor ratification, executive compensation and equity incentives. With 407,115,412 shar...
Executive/Board Changes
Global Business Travel Group Announces CTO Leadership Transition
Neutral
May 12, 2026
Global Business Travel Group, Inc. said that its EVP and Chief Technology Officer, John David Thompson, will leave the company effective May 31, 2026, with his responsibilities reassigned to other senior leaders, reflecting a leadership transition...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Global Business Travel to Be Taken Private in Merger
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 2, 2026, Global Business Travel Group agreed to be acquired by Long Lake Management in an all-cash merger valuing American Express Global Business Travel at about $6.3 billion, or $9.50 per share. The price represents a premium of roughly 6...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.