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Global Business Travel Group (GBTG)
NYSE:GBTG
US Market

Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) AI Stock Analysis

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Global Business Travel Group

(NYSE:GBTG)

54Neutral
The overall stock score of 54 reflects a balance between strong financial metrics and ongoing profitability challenges. While revenue and cash flow growth are positive, the persistent negative margins and technical indicators suggest caution. The guidance from the earnings call is optimistic, but valuation concerns and sector-specific challenges weigh on the score.
Positive Factors
Debt Management
GBTG was able to refinance its debt, which should yield significant interest savings going forward.
Financial Performance
Strong growth profile with a solid model showing 20%+ EBITDA margin and positive free cash flow.
Market Leadership
GBTG is a leader in a large GDP+ growth category with untapped opportunity in the SME segment.
Negative Factors
Competition Concerns
The UK Competition and Markets Authority published an interim report finding that the proposed CWT acquisition would result in a significant lessening of competition in the UK.
M&A Challenges
DOJ is challenging the CWT acquisition, raising questions around future M&A.
Revenue Guidance
Revenue guidance was lowered to a midpoint of $2,425M, with a growth range of 5.5% - 6.5%.

Global Business Travel Group (GBTG) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Global Business Travel Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGlobal Business Travel Group (GBTG) is a leading provider in the corporate travel management sector, offering comprehensive travel solutions to businesses worldwide. The company specializes in managing business travel, providing services such as booking flights and accommodations, arranging transportation, and offering travel advisory and support services. With a focus on enhancing travel efficiency and optimizing travel budgets, GBTG serves a diverse client base ranging from small enterprises to large multinational corporations.
How the Company Makes MoneyGlobal Business Travel Group (GBTG) generates revenue primarily through service fees charged for managing corporate travel arrangements. These fees can be transaction-based, where a fee is applied per booking or service rendered, or they can be based on a subscription or retainer model, where clients pay a regular fee for ongoing travel management services. Additionally, GBTG earns revenue through partnerships and commissions from airlines, hotels, and other travel service providers when bookings are made through its platform. The company may also offer premium services and technology solutions such as travel data analytics and reporting tools, which can be additional revenue streams. Strategic alliances and preferred supplier agreements also play a significant role in enhancing the company's profitability.

Global Business Travel Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Global Business Travel Group demonstrates strong revenue growth and improved cash flow management, aligning with the industry's recovery trend. However, persistent profitability issues and negative margins pose significant challenges. The company has made strides in reducing leverage, yet negative returns on equity indicate ongoing financial pressure. Focus on operational efficiencies and profitability could enhance financial health.
Income Statement
The company has shown a significant recovery in revenue with a growth rate of 5.81% from 2023 to 2024, following a consistent upward trend since 2020. Despite this, the net profit margin remains negative at -5.69%, indicating profitability challenges. The gross profit margin is strong at 60.07%, reflecting efficient cost management in production. However, negative EBIT and EBITDA margins of 4.75% and -5.82% respectively highlight ongoing operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
65
The company has improved its financial stability with a reduced debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. The return on equity remains negative at -13.13%, signifying net losses. The equity ratio stands at 28.99%, indicating a balanced capital structure with a moderate level of risk.
Cash Flow
The cash flow statement shows a positive trajectory with a significant increase in free cash flow to $165 million in 2024 from $49 million in 2023, marking a growth rate of 236.73%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable at -1.97, showing robust cash generation relative to losses. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also strong at -1.20, reflecting good cash flow management.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.42B2.29B1.85B763.00M793.00M
Gross Profit
1.46B1.33B1.02B286.00M264.00M
EBIT
115.00M-8.00M-201.00M-546.00M-747.00M
EBITDA
222.00M190.00M-7.00M-446.00M-419.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-138.00M-63.00M-226.00M-467.00M-614.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
536.00M476.00M303.00M516.00M584.00M
Total Assets
3.62B3.75B3.73B3.77B2.76B
Total Debt
97.00M1.43B1.30B1.10B702.00M
Net Debt
-439.00M958.00M997.00M589.00M118.00M
Total Liabilities
2.57B2.54B2.36B2.28B1.77B
Stockholders Equity
1.05B1.21B152.00M1.49B981.00M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
165.00M49.00M-488.00M-556.00M-297.00M
Operating Cash Flow
272.00M162.00M-394.00M-512.00M-250.00M
Investing Cash Flow
-102.00M-119.00M-95.00M-27.00M-47.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-85.00M120.00M292.00M478.00M384.00M

Global Business Travel Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price6.89
Price Trends
50DMA
7.26
Negative
100DMA
8.13
Negative
200DMA
7.89
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.17
Negative
RSI
31.53
Neutral
STOCH
58.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GBTG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.67, below the 50-day MA of 7.26, and below the 200-day MA of 7.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 31.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GBTG.

Global Business Travel Group Risk Analysis

Global Business Travel Group disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Global Business Travel Group reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Global Business Travel Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
64
Neutral
$4.53B-966.61%32.71%-131.68%
63
Neutral
$3.93B-92.26%10.94%4.54%
61
Neutral
$5.32B257.813.48%31.39%
60
Neutral
$10.78B10.47-6.71%2.99%7.58%-12.08%
SPSPT
59
Neutral
$1.25B-39.88%21.66%8.66%
54
Neutral
$3.29B-12.22%5.81%17.19%
KCKC
51
Neutral
$4.11B-32.59%8.56%13.34%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
GBTG
Global Business Travel Group
6.17
0.21
3.52%
LYFT
Lyft
12.89
-3.71
-22.35%
SPT
Sprout Social
20.77
-6.32
-23.33%
KC
Kingsoft Cloud Holdings
15.23
12.03
375.94%
ASAN
Asana
16.41
0.88
5.67%
GRND
Grindr
23.36
12.79
121.00%

Global Business Travel Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong financial performance in Q1 with significant growth in adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, and high customer retention. However, the company faces challenges in organic transaction growth and specific sectors impacted by tariffs. The overall sentiment leans towards positive, supported by strong financial metrics and strategic wins, despite some softer growth expectations.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q1 Financial Performance
The company reported a 15% growth in adjusted EBITDA, a 260 basis point increase in margin expansion, and a 9% increase in free cash flow for Q1 2025.
High Customer Retention and New Wins
Customer retention was maintained at a high level of 96% over the last 12 months, with new wins valued at $3.2 billion, including $2.3 billion from SME customers.
Revenue and Transaction Growth
Total transaction volume increased by 4%, and total transaction value (TTV) grew by 5% to $8.3 billion. Revenue was up 4% to $621 million.
Credit Rating Upgrades
The company received two credit rating upgrades from Moody's and S&P during the quarter.
Increased Digital Transactions
81% of transactions came through digital channels, with digital bookings growing 5% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Softer Organic Transaction Growth
Organic transaction growth was approximately 1 percentage point below expectations, with SME growth remaining slower at 2%.
Challenges in Specific Sectors
Sectors such as energy, mining, marine, automotive, and pharma showed slower growth, partly due to exposure to tariffs.
Flat Transaction Growth Assumption
The company adjusted its guidance to assume flat transaction growth for the full year 2025, reflecting a 2% decline in organic transactions offset by new wins.
Company Guidance
During the American Express Global Business Travel First Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company provided guidance emphasizing strong financial performance metrics. Key highlights included a 15% growth in adjusted EBITDA to $141 million, a 260 basis points expansion in EBITDA margin, and a 9% increase in free cash flow. Total transaction volume rose by 4% leading to a total transaction value (TTV) of $8.3 billion, and revenue increased by 4% to $621 million. Despite a slightly weaker than expected top-line performance, the company maintained a robust adjusted EBITDA margin of 23% and demonstrated strong cost control with operating expenses down 1% year-over-year. The company reiterated its commitment to shareholder returns, highlighting $3.2 billion in new wins and maintaining a high customer retention rate of 96%. Looking forward, the company provided Q2 guidance of $625 million in revenue and $130 million in adjusted EBITDA, with a full-year guidance of $510 million in adjusted EBITDA, reflecting a confident outlook despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

Global Business Travel Group Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Global Business Travel Group Announces Board Resignation
Neutral
Mar 3, 2025

On February 26, 2025, Mr. Mohammed Saif S.S. Al-Sowaidi announced his resignation from the Board of Directors of Global Business Travel Group, Inc., effective February 27, 2025. His departure was not due to any disagreements with the company. The Board appointed Mr. Ugo Arzani to fill the vacancies left by Mr. Al-Sowaidi, with his compensation aligned with the company’s Non-Employee Director Compensation Policy.

M&A TransactionsLegal Proceedings
Global Business Travel Awaits UK CMA Acquisition Decision
Neutral
Feb 18, 2025

On February 18, 2025, Global Business Travel Group announced that the UK Competition and Markets Authority provisionally found no competition concerns with its planned acquisition of CWT Holding, LLC, with a final decision expected by March 9, 2025. Meanwhile, the company is facing a legal challenge from the U.S. Department of Justice seeking to block the transaction. Amex GBT’s leadership believes the acquisition will enhance innovation and value in business travel, despite the DOJ’s opposition.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.