National Cinemedia (NCMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $360.31M
• Dividend Yield: 3.05%
• Average Volume (3M): 460.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.53
• Revenue Growth: -3.67%
• EPS Growth: 34.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 254
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 93,831,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 495,485
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 460,312
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.17
• 1Y Price Target: $5.83
• Price Target Upside: 51.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(4.17% Upside)

Overall score reflects mixed fundamentals: strong revenue growth, improving cash generation, and low leverage support the stock, but persistent losses (negative margins/ROE) and weak technical momentum keep the score constrained. A constructive earnings outlook (notably programmatic and Q4 guidance) provides a partial offset.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for NCMI's advertising solutions, enhancing its market position and long-term revenue potential.

Low Leverage

Low leverage provides financial stability and flexibility, allowing NCMI to invest in growth opportunities without significant debt burden.

Programmatic Revenue Growth

Significant growth in programmatic revenue reflects successful adaptation to digital trends, enhancing NCMI's competitive edge in targeted advertising.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Persistent profitability issues could hinder NCMI's ability to reinvest in the business and return value to shareholders, affecting long-term growth.

Decline in Attendance

Decreased attendance may reduce advertising reach and revenue potential, challenging NCMI's ability to maintain growth in a competitive market.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow indicates operational inefficiencies and may limit NCMI's capacity to fund strategic initiatives without external financing.

National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment pre-show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically-placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies. The company is also engaged in the sale of online and mobile advertising through its Noovie Audience Accelerator product, as well as a suite of Noovie digital properties, such as Noovie Shuffle, Noovie Trivia, Name That Movie, and Noovie Arcade to reach entertainment audiences beyond the theater. It offers its services to third-party theater circuits under long-term network affiliate agreements. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

National Cinemedia generates revenue primarily through advertising sales. The company offers a range of advertising products, including on-screen ads, lobby displays, and mobile and digital extensions that allow brands to engage with audiences before, during, and after movies. Key revenue streams include national and local advertising contracts, where advertisers pay for visibility in front of captive audiences. NCMI also benefits from partnerships with major cinema chains, which provide access to their audiences and enhance the company's advertising reach. Additional revenue is derived from the sale of sponsorships and promotional events tied to movie releases. The company's earnings are bolstered by its ability to leverage data analytics to provide targeted advertising solutions, making ad placements more effective and appealing to advertisers.

National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National CineMedia shows potential with strong revenue growth of 42.5%, but profitability remains a concern with negative net and EBIT margins. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, yet returns on equity are negative. Cash flow generation is improving with an 8.7% growth in free cash flow, but further enhancements in profitability and operational efficiency are needed.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. While there is a notable revenue growth of 42.5% in the TTM period, the company struggles with profitability, evidenced by negative net and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin is relatively low, indicating cost pressures. The company needs to improve its operational efficiency to enhance profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 in the TTM period, suggesting low leverage. However, the negative return on equity indicates challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is not provided, but the overall stability is moderate.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with an 8.7% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests room for improvement in cash profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	236.40M	240.80M	165.20M	249.20M	114.60M	90.40M
Gross Profit	99.80M	72.80M	85.10M	131.30M	37.70M	46.90M
EBITDA	25.20M	22.00M	750.10M	45.00M	-18.00M	129.40M
Net Income	-15.10M	-22.30M	705.20M	-28.70M	-48.70M	-65.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	451.90M	568.60M	567.70M	792.40M	817.40M	886.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	29.90M	75.20M	34.60M	64.50M	101.50M	180.60M
Total Debt	11.00M	24.20M	16.00M	1.14B	1.12B	1.08B
Total Liabilities	101.40M	157.40M	133.20M	1.26B	1.20B	1.15B
Stockholders Equity	350.50M	411.20M	434.50M	-515.30M	-526.70M	-473.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	26.30M	54.50M	-10.00M	-50.20M	-100.90M	47.30M
Operating Cash Flow	32.10M	60.30M	-6.70M	-47.30M	-95.20M	55.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.60M	-5.70M	32.60M	-400.00K	-5.40M	15.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-43.00M	-14.10M	-52.10M	10.30M	21.50M	53.50M

National Cinemedia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.84
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.88, below the 50-day MA of 4.01, and below the 200-day MA of 4.63, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.83 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCMI.

National Cinemedia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BOC	63 Neutral	$385.93M	-1,778.26	-0.04%	―	7.22%	97.88%
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
CCO	57 Neutral	$1.06B	-11.82	―	―	-29.67%	30.13%
NCMI	52 Neutral	$360.31M	-23.40	-4.10%	3.05%	-3.67%	34.36%
CDLX	47 Neutral	$64.87M	-0.57	-341.04%	―	-14.41%	65.67%
ADV	42 Neutral	$271.16M	-1.09	-29.47%	―	-7.12%	-7.75%
VSME	31 Underperform	$4.57M	-1.11	-194.72%	―	-11.51%	74.52%

National Cinemedia Corporate Events

National CineMedia Extends Key Executive Employment Agreements

On December 22, 2025, National CineMedia, Inc. extended the employment agreements of Chief Executive Officer Thomas F. Lesinski and Chief Legal Officer and Secretary Maria V. Woods through December 31, 2028, signaling a commitment to leadership continuity. Effective January 1, 2026, Lesinski’s amended agreement raises his annual base salary to $1,000,000, sets his target annual bonus at 100% of base salary, and provides for at least $1,000,000 in annual long-term incentive awards, plus a 2026 grant of 1,500,000 stock options that will vest based on performance thresholds set by the board’s Compensation and Leadership Committee; the contract also outlines enhanced cash severance and benefits if he is terminated without cause or following a change in control, contingent on a release of claims. Woods’ amended agreement, effective December 31, 2025, increases her base salary to $485,000, maintains eligibility for an annual cash bonus targeted at 75% of base salary, and preserves access to long-term incentive awards at the committee’s discretion, with other terms largely consistent with her prior contract. These moves reinforce National CineMedia’s executive bench at a time when stability in top management and aligned incentive structures are important for executing strategy and protecting stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCMI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Cinemedia stock, see the NCMI Stock Forecast page.

National Cinemedia Acquires Spotlight Cinema Networks

On November 17, 2025, National CineMedia, Inc. announced the acquisition of Spotlight Cinema Networks, a company specializing in advertising for art house, luxury, and dine-in cinemas. This strategic move is set to increase NCM’s national market share by about 6% and expand its presence in New York and Los Angeles markets by 30%. The acquisition is expected to enhance NCM’s advertising network, providing access to luxury audiences and unlocking new revenue opportunities, with anticipated synergies to be realized in 2026. The transaction aligns with NCM’s growth strategy and commitment to long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCMI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Cinemedia stock, see the NCMI Stock Forecast page.

National Cinemedia’s Sales President to Step Down

Catherine Sullivan, the President of Sales, Marketing, and Partnerships at National CineMedia, Inc., will step down from her role on November 13, 2025, and leave the company on December 1, 2025, due to the elimination of her position. Her departure will be classified as an ‘Involuntary Termination,’ entitling her to severance pay, and it is not related to any policy violation.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCMI) stock is a Hold with a $4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Cinemedia stock, see the NCMI Stock Forecast page.

National Cinemedia Appoints Simon Mullaly to Board

On October 21, 2025, National CineMedia, Inc. appointed Simon Mullaly to its Board of Directors, filling the vacancy left by Nathan ‘Tripp’ Lane. Mullaly, designated by Blantyre Capital, brings over 25 years of global capital markets experience, having previously worked at firms like Guggenheim Partners and Goldman Sachs. His appointment is expected to enhance the company’s strategic direction, leveraging his expertise in leveraged credit and special situations trading.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCMI) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Cinemedia stock, see the NCMI Stock Forecast page.