National Cinemedia (NCMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $403.47M
• Dividend Yield: 2.93%
• Average Volume (3M): 460.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: -3.67%
• EPS Growth: 34.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 254
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): 0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 93,831,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 495,485
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 460,312
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.02
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 26.88
• 1Y Price Target: $6.17
• Price Target Upside: 54.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(0.25% Upside)

National Cinemedia's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and valuation. However, recent improvements in cash flow and a positive outlook from the earnings call provide some optimism. Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, which tempers the overall score.

Positive Factors

Programmatic Revenue Growth

The significant growth in programmatic revenue indicates a successful adaptation to digital advertising trends, enhancing long-term revenue potential.

Self-Serve Platform Expansion

The expansion of self-serve platforms suggests increased customer engagement and operational scalability, supporting sustainable growth.

National Advertising Revenue Increase

Rising national advertising revenue reflects strong demand and effective inventory utilization, contributing to stable long-term earnings.

Negative Factors

Decline in Overall Attendance

Decreasing audience attendance could limit advertising reach and revenue, posing a challenge to maintaining market share and growth.

High Debt Levels

High debt levels can constrain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting long-term financial health and stability.

Negative Unlevered Free Cash Flow

Negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues and may hinder the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment pre-show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically-placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies. The company is also engaged in the sale of online and mobile advertising through its Noovie Audience Accelerator product, as well as a suite of Noovie digital properties, such as Noovie Shuffle, Noovie Trivia, Name That Movie, and Noovie Arcade to reach entertainment audiences beyond the theater. It offers its services to third-party theater circuits under long-term network affiliate agreements. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

NCMI generates revenue primarily through the sale of advertising space in theaters, which includes pre-show commercials and advertisements displayed on screens before feature films. The company's revenue model is based on partnerships with a network of movie theaters, allowing it to reach a broad audience and sell advertising slots to national and regional advertisers. Key revenue streams include the sale of digital pre-show content, in-theater promotional materials, and collaborations with major film studios for co-promotional opportunities. Additionally, NCMI benefits from strategic partnerships with cinema chains and advertisers, enhancing its market reach and contributing to its earnings through a shared revenue model with theater operators.

National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Cinemedia faces significant challenges with its income statement indicating poor profitability and declining revenues. The balance sheet shows improvement in equity yet remains burdened by high debt. Cash flow metrics have improved, suggesting better liquidity management, but historical volatility remains a concern. The overall financial health of the company indicates a need for strategic improvements to stabilize and grow effectively.

Income Statement

National Cinemedia's income statement shows significant volatility with declining revenues and profitability over the years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin are adversely affected, with net income consistently negative, indicating core operational challenges. Revenue has decreased significantly from 2019 to 2023, reflecting challenges in maintaining market share or sales growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, underscoring operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture with substantial improvement in stockholders' equity from negative to positive in recent years, highlighting some recovery. However, the high debt levels and past negative equity raise concerns about long-term financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved but remains a point of risk due to potential leverage issues. The equity ratio has shown improvement, but the historical negative equity indicates past financial distress.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals notable improvements with positive free cash flow and operating cash flow in the latest year, suggesting better cash management. Despite prior years of negative free cash flow, the recent trend shows recovery potential. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates better cash conversion, although previous years' negative cash flows highlight historical challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	236.40M	240.80M	165.20M	249.20M	114.60M	90.40M
Gross Profit	71.90M	72.80M	85.10M	222.00M	96.20M	80.10M
EBITDA	16.10M	22.00M	750.10M	45.00M	-18.20M	129.00M
Net Income	-15.10M	-22.30M	705.20M	-28.60M	-113.50M	-126.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	451.90M	568.60M	567.70M	792.40M	817.40M	886.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	29.90M	75.20M	34.60M	62.40M	102.50M	181.80M
Total Debt	11.00M	24.20M	16.00M	1.14B	1.10B	1.05B
Total Liabilities	101.40M	157.40M	133.20M	1.26B	1.20B	1.15B
Stockholders Equity	350.50M	411.20M	434.50M	-515.30M	-383.50M	-268.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	24.80M	54.50M	-10.00M	-50.20M	-100.90M	47.30M
Operating Cash Flow	30.60M	60.30M	-6.70M	-47.30M	-95.20M	55.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-8.60M	-5.70M	32.60M	-400.00K	-5.40M	15.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-41.50M	-14.10M	-52.10M	10.30M	21.50M	53.50M

National Cinemedia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.99
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.99 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.16, below the 50-day MA of 4.37, and below the 200-day MA of 5.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCMI.

National Cinemedia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
CCO	52 Neutral	$964.77M	―	―	―	-29.67%	30.13%
NCMI	50 Neutral	$403.47M	-26.20	-4.10%	2.93%	-3.67%	34.36%
BOC	47 Neutral	$390.65M	498.79	-0.04%	―	7.22%	97.88%
ADV	44 Neutral	$400.91M	-1.19	-29.47%	―	-7.12%	-7.75%
CDLX	39 Underperform	$81.08M	―	-341.04%	―	-14.41%	65.67%
VSME	31 Underperform	$25.55M	-6.87	-194.72%	―	-11.51%	74.52%

National Cinemedia Corporate Events

National CineMedia’s Optimistic Earnings Call Highlights Growth

The recent earnings call of National CineMedia (NCM) painted a generally positive picture, despite some challenges in attendance and local advertising revenue. The company expressed optimism for the future, driven by significant growth in their Programmatic and self-serve platforms, and a stabilized advertiser demand. The anticipation of a strong fourth quarter further contributes to this optimistic outlook.

National CineMedia Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

National CineMedia, Inc. (NCM) operates the largest cinema advertising platform in the United States, connecting brands to diverse audiences through cinema and pop culture. The company offers a premium video marketing solution, enhancing advertisers’ ability to measure and drive results across a wide network of theaters.

National Cinemedia Appoints Simon Mullaly to Board

On October 21, 2025, National CineMedia, Inc. appointed Simon Mullaly to its Board of Directors, filling the vacancy left by Nathan ‘Tripp’ Lane. Mullaly, designated by Blantyre Capital, brings over 25 years of global capital markets experience, having previously worked at firms like Guggenheim Partners and Goldman Sachs. His appointment is expected to enhance the company’s strategic direction, leveraging his expertise in leveraged credit and special situations trading.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCMI) stock is a Buy with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Cinemedia stock, see the NCMI Stock Forecast page.

National CineMedia Director Nathan Lane Resigns

On September 26, 2025, Nathan “Tripp” Lane resigned from National CineMedia’s Board of Directors and all associated committees, with his departure not stemming from any disagreement with the company. His resignation allows Blantyre Capital Limited to designate a replacement, as per their Director Designation Agreement, with the company planning to appoint the nominee after ensuring compliance with fiduciary duties and applicable laws.

The most recent analyst rating on (NCMI) stock is a Hold with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on National Cinemedia stock, see the NCMI Stock Forecast page.