National Cinemedia (NCMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $398.30M
• Dividend Yield: 2.11%
• Average Volume (3M): 460.31K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.64
• Revenue Growth: 13.34%
• EPS Growth: -107.92%
• Country: US
• Employees: 254
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 97
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): -0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 93,718,030
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 495,485
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 460,312
• PEG Ratio: 0.29
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.68
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.09
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.84
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 19.67
• 1Y Price Target: $7.00
• Price Target Upside: 63.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(17.10% Upside)

National Cinemedia's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges, including declining revenues and profitability. Technical indicators provide a mixed outlook, while valuation concerns persist due to a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call offers some optimism with growth in advertising platforms and a recovering cinema attendance, but revenue shortfalls and economic uncertainties weigh on the sentiment.

Positive Factors

Programmatic Advertising Growth

The significant growth in programmatic advertising indicates a strong demand for NCMI's digital platforms, enhancing its competitive edge and revenue potential in the evolving advertising landscape.

Self-Serve Platform Adoption

The increase in self-serve platform adoption reflects successful innovation in NCMI's business model, enabling advertisers to engage more flexibly and potentially boosting long-term revenue streams.

Box Office Recovery

The recovery in cinema attendance suggests a rebound in the core market, which can drive higher ad sales and improve financial performance as audience numbers grow.

Negative Factors

Revenue Shortfall

The revenue shortfall highlights ongoing challenges in meeting financial targets, which could impact investor confidence and necessitate strategic adjustments to improve sales performance.

Operating Income Loss

Continued operating losses indicate persistent operational inefficiencies, which may strain resources and hinder the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.

Economic and Tariff Uncertainty

Economic and tariff uncertainties create a challenging environment for advertising budgets, potentially affecting NCMI's revenue stability and necessitating adaptive strategies to mitigate risks.

National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment pre-show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically-placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies. The company is also engaged in the sale of online and mobile advertising through its Noovie Audience Accelerator product, as well as a suite of Noovie digital properties, such as Noovie Shuffle, Noovie Trivia, Name That Movie, and Noovie Arcade to reach entertainment audiences beyond the theater. It offers its services to third-party theater circuits under long-term network affiliate agreements. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

NCMI generates revenue primarily through the sale of advertising space in theaters, which includes pre-show commercials and advertisements displayed on screens before feature films. The company's revenue model is based on partnerships with a network of movie theaters, allowing it to reach a broad audience and sell advertising slots to national and regional advertisers. Key revenue streams include the sale of digital pre-show content, in-theater promotional materials, and collaborations with major film studios for co-promotional opportunities. Additionally, NCMI benefits from strategic partnerships with cinema chains and advertisers, enhancing its market reach and contributing to its earnings through a shared revenue model with theater operators.

National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Cinemedia's financial performance is challenged by declining revenues and profitability, with negative net income and operational inefficiencies. However, there are improvements in cash flow and equity, suggesting potential recovery.

Income Statement

National Cinemedia's income statement shows significant volatility with declining revenues and profitability over the years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin are adversely affected, with net income consistently negative, indicating core operational challenges. Revenue has decreased significantly from 2019 to 2023, reflecting challenges in maintaining market share or sales growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, underscoring operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture with substantial improvement in stockholders' equity from negative to positive in recent years, highlighting some recovery. However, the high debt levels and past negative equity raise concerns about long-term financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved but remains a point of risk due to potential leverage issues. The equity ratio has shown improvement, but the historical negative equity indicates past financial distress.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals notable improvements with positive free cash flow and operating cash flow in the latest year, suggesting better cash management. Despite prior years of negative free cash flow, the recent trend shows recovery potential. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates better cash conversion, although previous years' negative cash flows highlight historical challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	235.40M	240.80M	165.20M	249.20M	114.60M	90.40M
Gross Profit	87.40M	72.80M	85.10M	222.00M	96.20M	80.10M
EBITDA	22.00M	22.00M	750.10M	45.00M	-18.20M	129.00M
Net Income	-20.30M	-22.30M	705.20M	-28.60M	-113.50M	-126.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	462.00M	568.60M	567.70M	792.40M	817.40M	886.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	40.30M	75.20M	34.60M	62.40M	102.50M	181.80M
Total Debt	13.50M	10.00M	16.00M	1.12B	1.10B	1.05B
Total Liabilities	112.00M	157.40M	133.20M	1.26B	1.20B	1.15B
Stockholders Equity	350.00M	411.20M	434.50M	-515.30M	-383.50M	-268.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	24.20M	54.50M	-10.00M	-50.20M	-100.90M	47.30M
Operating Cash Flow	29.60M	60.30M	-6.70M	-47.30M	-95.20M	55.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.70M	-5.70M	32.60M	-400.00K	-5.40M	15.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-40.40M	-14.10M	-52.10M	10.30M	21.50M	53.50M

National Cinemedia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.27
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.34, below the 50-day MA of 4.46, and below the 200-day MA of 5.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCMI.

National Cinemedia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	60 Neutral	$48.67B	4.58	-11.27%	4.14%	2.83%	-41.78%
BOC	55 Neutral	$432.17M	555.87	0.14%	―	9.53%	―
NCMI	52 Neutral	$398.30M	-19.52	-5.50%	2.11%	13.34%	-107.92%
CCO	51 Neutral	$954.26M	―	―	―	-21.67%	81.70%
CDLX	46 Neutral	$102.21M	―	-136.44%	―	-12.84%	5.09%
ADV	41 Neutral	$446.55M	―	-36.12%	―	-10.21%	-81.84%
VSME	31 Underperform	$61.46M	―	―	―	3.55%	31.41%

National Cinemedia Corporate Events

National Cinemedia Extends Agreement with AMC Theatres

On May 1, 2025, National CineMedia held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where all proposals, including the election of directors and executive compensation, were approved. The company reported a decrease in revenue for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year but maintained its financial guidance. A significant development was the extension of a long-term agreement with AMC Theatres, enhancing NCM’s advertising platform and financial outlook by aligning payment structures with performance metrics. This agreement also resolved ongoing litigation, eliminating potential liabilities and streamlining operations.