National Cinemedia (NCMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $462.09M
• Dividend Yield: 0.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 789.27K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.83
• Revenue Growth: 42.01%
• EPS Growth: -100.56%
• Country: US
• Employees: 254
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 89
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): -0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 94,304,390
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 702,841
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 789,275
• PEG Ratio: -3.00
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.30
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $7.20
• Price Target Upside: 46.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲( 2.04% Upside)

National CineMedia's overall score reflects significant financial challenges, including high debt and declining revenues. Technical indicators suggest bearish trends, and the negative P/E ratio points to overvaluation concerns. Earnings call insights and recent corporate events provide some optimism, indicating potential for recovery and future growth. However, the need for strategic improvements and addressing operational inefficiencies remains critical.

Positive Factors

Advertising Revenue

The adoption of the Post ShowTime and Platinum Spot format by AMC is expected to expand premium inventory and boost NCM’s future advertising revenue.

Capital Allocation

NCM’s reinstated tax-deferred dividend, coupled with share repurchases, signals to investors that the company intends to prioritize capital allocation as it returns to growth.

Network Expansion

The new AMC agreement is a long-term win, expanding inventory access, aligning economics with performance, and ending litigation.

Negative Factors

Ad Spend Limitations

Tariffs, government spending cutbacks, and general uncertainty are limiting ad spend for some important categories, with some tariff impacted categories noted as pulling back spend.

Performance Challenges

Q1 results aligned with internal expectations but missed Street estimates due to weak content, delayed ad spend, and volatile attendance tied to Snow White’s underperformance.

National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment pre-show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically-placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies. The company is also engaged in the sale of online and mobile advertising through its Noovie Audience Accelerator product, as well as a suite of Noovie digital properties, such as Noovie Shuffle, Noovie Trivia, Name That Movie, and Noovie Arcade to reach entertainment audiences beyond the theater. It offers its services to third-party theater circuits under long-term network affiliate agreements. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

National Cinemedia generates revenue primarily through the sale of advertising and marketing solutions displayed in theaters. The company partners with major theater chains like AMC, Cinemark, and Regal to show pre-movie advertisements on the big screen, in lobbies, and through digital and mobile platforms associated with these theaters. NCMI earns money by selling advertising time and space to businesses looking to reach a captive audience. The company benefits from significant partnerships with leading cinema chains, ensuring a wide reach and access to a large, diverse audience base. Additionally, NCMI engages in strategic partnerships and content integrations, enhancing its offerings and appeal to advertisers.

National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Cinemedia faces significant challenges with income statement volatility, declining revenues, and operational inefficiencies. The balance sheet shows some recovery in equity but is burdened by high debt. Cash flow improvements suggest better liquidity management but historical volatility remains a concern.

Income Statement

National Cinemedia's income statement shows significant volatility with declining revenues and profitability over the years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin are adversely affected, with net income consistently negative, indicating core operational challenges. Revenue has decreased significantly from 2019 to 2023, reflecting challenges in maintaining market share or sales growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, underscoring operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture with substantial improvement in stockholders' equity from negative to positive in recent years, highlighting some recovery. However, the high debt levels and past negative equity raise concerns about long-term financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved but remains a point of risk due to potential leverage issues. The equity ratio has shown improvement, but the historical negative equity indicates past financial distress.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals notable improvements with positive free cash flow and operating cash flow in the latest year, suggesting better cash management. Despite prior years of negative free cash flow, the recent trend shows recovery potential. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates better cash conversion, although previous years' negative cash flows highlight historical challenges.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
240.80M	165.20M	249.20M	114.60M	90.40M
	Gross Profit
115.20M	85.10M	222.00M	96.20M	80.10M
	EBIT
-19.50M	-27.30M	13.40M	-68.60M	-59.30M
	EBITDA
-1.30M	750.10M	45.00M	-18.20M	129.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-22.30M	705.20M	-28.60M	-113.50M	-126.30M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
75.20M	34.60M	62.40M	102.50M	181.80M
	Total Assets
568.60M	567.70M	792.40M	817.40M	886.20M
	Total Debt
10.00M	16.00M	1.12B	1.10B	1.05B
	Net Debt
-65.10M	-24.60M	1.06B	996.30M	872.00M
	Total Liabilities
157.40M	133.20M	1.26B	1.20B	1.15B
	Stockholders Equity
411.20M	434.50M	-515.30M	-383.50M	-268.60M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
54.50M	-10.00M	-50.20M	-100.90M	47.30M
	Operating Cash Flow
60.30M	-6.70M	-47.30M	-95.20M	55.30M
	Investing Cash Flow
-5.70M	32.60M	-400.00K	-5.40M	15.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
-14.10M	-52.10M	10.30M	21.50M	53.50M

National Cinemedia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.90
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.29, below the 50-day MA of 5.61, and below the 200-day MA of 6.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCMI.

National Cinemedia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NEXN	81 Outperform	$677.77M	16.04	8.57%	―	10.36%	―
DLX	71 Outperform	$610.25M	10.94	9.10%	8.80%	-2.69%	61.73%
EEX	69 Neutral	$890.89M	278.26	1.62%	1.00%	4.87%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$14.08B	5.95	-4.18%	3.68%	2.79%	-36.29%
ADV	54 Neutral	$363.23M	―	-42.89%	―	-13.81%	-433.86%
CCO	48 Neutral	$536.45M	―	4.92%	―	-17.54%	66.05%
NCMI	47 Neutral	$462.09M	―	-4.73%	0.61%	42.01%	-100.56%

National Cinemedia Corporate Events

National Cinemedia Extends Agreement with AMC Theatres

On May 1, 2025, National CineMedia held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where all proposals, including the election of directors and executive compensation, were approved. The company reported a decrease in revenue for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year but maintained its financial guidance. A significant development was the extension of a long-term agreement with AMC Theatres, enhancing NCM’s advertising platform and financial outlook by aligning payment structures with performance metrics. This agreement also resolved ongoing litigation, eliminating potential liabilities and streamlining operations.

National CineMedia Reintroduces Dividend and New Ad Offering

On March 13, 2025, National CineMedia announced the reintroduction of a quarterly dividend and the launch of a new advertising offering during their Investor Day Event. The company declared a cash dividend of $0.03 per share, payable on April 7, 2025, reflecting its improved financial position and strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value.