National Cinemedia (NCMI)
NASDAQ:NCMI
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National Cinemedia
(NASDAQ:NCMI)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-17.36% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is driven by improving operating/cash-flow trajectory and supportive Q2 guidance, balanced against contracting TTM revenue and still-negative net profitability. Technicals are a meaningful headwind with the stock below major moving averages and weak momentum, while valuation is helped by a ~4% dividend but constrained by negative earnings.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable optionality: it funds continued product investment, supports dividends/repurchases, and reduces refinancing risk. While consistency must be proven, the TTM cash-turnaround materially improves liquidity and strategic flexibility over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Declining top-line trend
A contracting revenue base weakens scalability of fixed costs and makes margin progress fragile; ad-driven businesses rely on volume and stable CPMs, so persistent revenue declines would erode cash generation and could force tougher cost cuts or limit reinvestment over the coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable optionality: it funds continued product investment, supports dividends/repurchases, and reduces refinancing risk. While consistency must be proven, the TTM cash-turnaround materially improves liquidity and strategic flexibility over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
National Cinemedia (NCMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$294.47M
Dividend Yield3.05%
Average Volume (3M)460.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.63
Revenue Growth1.72%
EPS Growth52.08%
CountryUS
Employees254
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryAdvertising Agencies
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding93,780,290
10 Day Avg. Volume495,485
30 Day Avg. Volume460,312
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.66
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)1.51
P/FCF Ratio130.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.50Price Target Upside51.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$264.10M
National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and ...
How the Company Makes Money
NCMI primarily makes money by selling advertising inventory shown in movie theatres before films (preshow/cinema ads) across its network of affiliated theatres. Advertisers (national brands and, in some cases, local/regional buyers depending on ca...
National Cinemedia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed a company with strengthening demand fundamentals and several strategic initiatives underway—attendance growth, premium inventory gains (Platinum), accelerating programmatic adoption, NCMx product integrations, an AMC lobby display partnership, and a targeted operational transformation with an $11 million annualized cost-savings goal. These positives support improved cash flow and a solid liquidity position and underpin Q2 guidance for positive adjusted OIBDA. Offsetting factors include a negative adjusted OIBDA and an operating loss in Q1, expense pressure from higher exhibitor fees and one-time transformation costs, deal concentration effects from the Spotlight integration, and near-term variability from major sporting events. Overall, management communicated confidence in a constructive trajectory backed by product and cost actions, while acknowledging short-term headwinds and seasonality.Positive Updates
Attendance and Box Office Momentum
Reported attendance reached 83 million in Q1, up 15% year-over-year, while the domestic box office grew approximately 25% YoY. Adjusting for a one-week fiscal calendar shift and including Spotlight, attendance would have been up ~18% on a comparable basis.
Negative Updates
Negative Adjusted OIBDA and Operating Loss
Adjusted OIBDA for Q1 was negative $10.5 million and GAAP operating loss was $26.9 million, reflecting seasonality, Olympic-related advertising competition, and the timing shift in the fiscal calendar.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Attendance and Box Office Momentum
Reported attendance reached 83 million in Q1, up 15% year-over-year, while the domestic box office grew approximately 25% YoY. Adjusting for a one-week fiscal calendar shift and including Spotlight, attendance would have been up ~18% on a comparable basis.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 revenue of $57–63 million and adjusted OIBDA of $1–5 million, driven by an expected year‑over‑year increase in attendance, higher exhibitor fees, and improved monetization from the unified Platinum network and stronger local results; that outlook follows Q1 results of $34.0 million total revenue (advertising $31.9M), adjusted OIBDA of negative $10.5M, 83 million attendees (up 15% Y/Y, ~18% on a comparable basis) and a domestic box office up ~25% Y/Y. They noted Q1 programmatic orders were ~2x last year, six advertisers spent at least $1M, Platinum was up ~83% on a calendar‑adjusted basis with revenue per attendee up >54%, local Q2 bookings are already ahead of last year, and they’re targeting ~$11 million of annualized cost savings (about $3M realized so far, up to $6M expected in full‑year 2026, full run‑rate in 2027); Q1 cash was $51.6M and total debt $12M.National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 242.40M | 243.20M | 240.80M | 165.20M | 249.20M | 114.60M |
| Gross Profit | 88.20M | 73.80M | 72.80M | 85.10M | 131.30M | 37.70M |
| EBITDA | 30.60M | 24.00M | 22.00M | 750.10M | 45.00M | -18.00M |
| Net Income | -8.40M | -10.60M | -22.30M | 705.20M | -28.70M | -48.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 468.70M | 568.60M | 568.60M | 567.70M | 792.40M | 817.40M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 51.60M | 75.10M | 75.20M | 34.60M | 64.50M | 101.50M |
| Total Debt | 22.30M | 22.50M | 24.20M | 16.00M | 1.14B | 1.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 123.90M | 157.40M | 157.40M | 133.20M | 1.26B | 1.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 344.80M | 411.20M | 411.20M | 434.50M | -515.30M | -526.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 16.80M | 2.80M | 54.50M | -10.00M | -50.20M | -100.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 22.00M | 8.40M | 60.30M | -6.70M | -47.30M | -95.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.80M | -15.40M | -5.70M | 32.60M | -400.00K | -5.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.60M | -33.50M | -14.10M | -52.10M | 10.30M | 21.50M |
National Cinemedia Technical Analysis
Negative
3.63
Price Trends
3.25
Negative
3.38
Negative
3.78
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Negative
47.98
Neutral
85.44
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.18, above the 50-day MA of 3.25, and below the 200-day MA of 3.78, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.44 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCMI.
National Cinemedia Risk Analysis
National Cinemedia disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Cinemedia reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Cinemedia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $497.51M | -2.01 | -40.17% | ― | 1.81% | 42.29% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
56 Neutral | $294.47M | -34.84 | -2.31% | 3.05% | 1.72% | 52.08% | |
55 Neutral | $391.61M | -28.53 | -2.67% | ― | 4.02% | -1668.90% | |
50 Neutral | $1.23B | -5.83 | 5.99% | ― | -12.49% | 38.34% | |
45 Neutral | $38.87M | -0.39 | -870.86% | ― | -24.54% | 42.74% | |
| ― | $2.46M | -2.22 | -194.72% | ― | -8.74% | 88.46% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
NCMI
National Cinemedia
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National Cinemedia Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
National CineMedia Shareholders Approve Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 12, 2026
National CineMedia’s shareholders approved all proposals at the May 7, 2026 annual meeting, including the election of eight directors, an advisory vote backing executive compensation and the ratification of Grant Thornton LLP as auditor for ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
National CineMedia Expands Board with Bylaw Amendment
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
On March 26, 2026, National CineMedia, Inc.’s board approved an amendment to its bylaws to increase the size of the board of directors from seven to eight members. The change will become effective immediately before the start of the company&...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.