National Cinemedia (NCMI)
NASDAQ:NCMI
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National Cinemedia
(NASDAQ:NCMI)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-11.24% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/04/26
The score reflects improved financial stability (low leverage and recovered revenue) but ongoing questions around consistent profitability and free-cash-flow durability. Technicals are neutral with a short-term bounce but weaker longer-term trend, while valuation is supported by the dividend but limited by negative earnings; earnings-call guidance for a weak Q1 with negative OIBDA caps upside near term.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet de-risking
Materially stronger capitalization and low leverage provide durable financial flexibility: supports dividends, buybacks, M&A (e.g., Spotlight), and absorbing box-office seasonality. A healthier balance sheet reduces bankruptcy risk and funds strategic investments without heavy refinancing pressure.
Negative Factors
Volatile cash generation
Inconsistent free cash flow undermines the durability of shareholder returns and discretionary investments. Large year-to-year swings tied to timing, client prepayments and box-office cadence make capital allocation and debt servicing less predictable over a multi-quarter horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet de-risking
Materially stronger capitalization and low leverage provide durable financial flexibility: supports dividends, buybacks, M&A (e.g., Spotlight), and absorbing box-office seasonality. A healthier balance sheet reduces bankruptcy risk and funds strategic investments without heavy refinancing pressure.
Read all positive factors
National Cinemedia (NCMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$305.96M
Dividend Yield3.05%
Average Volume (3M)460.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.56
Revenue Growth-3.67%
EPS Growth34.36%
CountryUS
Employees254
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryAdvertising Agencies
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.31
Shares Outstanding93,280,420
10 Day Avg. Volume495,485
30 Day Avg. Volume460,312
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.66
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)1.51
P/FCF Ratio130.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.88
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.11
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.22
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.33Price Target Upside57.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$265.14M
National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and ...
How the Company Makes Money
NCMI primarily makes money by selling advertising inventory shown in movie theatres before films (preshow/cinema ads) across its network of affiliated theatres. Advertisers (national brands and, in some cases, local/regional buyers depending on ca...
National Cinemedia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed but constructive tone: Q4 showed clear operational and commercial momentum (revenue up ~8% YoY, Q4 adjusted OIBDA up 6%, strong programmatic +100% and self-serve +64% growth, and improved impressions sold per attendee), alongside strategic gains (AMC agreement, Spotlight acquisition, and product investments). However, full-year profitability (adjusted OIBDA) and cash flow were weaker year-over-year, attendance normalized lower when adjusting for the extra week, local revenue fell for the year, and management provided cautious Q1 guidance with negative OIBDA expectations. Overall, the company presented substantive growth levers and early signs of 2026 upside while acknowledging near-term financial and calendar-related headwinds.Positive Updates
Fourth Quarter Revenue Growth
Total Q4 revenue of $93.2 million, up ~8% year-over-year and in line with guidance; advertising revenue up ~9% year-over-year (~$90M), outpacing attendance growth.
Negative Updates
Attendance Normalization and Calendar Impacts
Q4 included a 53rd week; normalizing for that, estimated Q4 attendance would be ~92 million, down ~9% year-over-year. Full-year attendance benefit also reflected the extra week.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Fourth Quarter Revenue Growth
Total Q4 revenue of $93.2 million, up ~8% year-over-year and in line with guidance; advertising revenue up ~9% year-over-year (~$90M), outpacing attendance growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q1 2026 NCM guided revenue of $32.5 million to $36.5 million and adjusted OIBDA of negative $13 million to negative $10 million, noting the comparability headwinds from the absence of the extra (53rd) week included in FY25 Q4, expected reduced beverage revenue (a pro‑forma full‑year impact of slightly below 2%), and a tougher February due to the Winter Olympics; management emphasized underlying advertising demand remains intact (January calendar‑month revenue was in line with prior year despite the lost holiday week) and that the Q1 OIBDA outlook also reflects higher expected attendance‑related expenses as moviegoer activity increases — against a backdrop where Q4 revenue was $93.2 million and Q4 adjusted OIBDA was $37.2 million.National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
41
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 243.20M | 240.80M | 165.20M | 249.20M | 114.60M |
| Gross Profit | 73.80M | 72.80M | 85.10M | 131.30M | 37.70M |
| EBITDA | 24.00M | 22.00M | 750.10M | 45.00M | -18.00M |
| Net Income | -10.60M | -22.30M | 705.20M | -28.70M | -48.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 568.60M | 568.60M | 567.70M | 792.40M | 817.40M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 75.10M | 75.20M | 34.60M | 64.50M | 101.50M |
| Total Debt | 22.50M | 24.20M | 16.00M | 1.14B | 1.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 157.40M | 157.40M | 133.20M | 1.26B | 1.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 411.20M | 411.20M | 434.50M | -515.30M | -526.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.80M | 54.50M | -10.00M | -50.20M | -100.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.40M | 60.30M | -6.70M | -47.30M | -95.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.40M | -5.70M | 32.60M | -400.00K | -5.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -33.50M | -14.10M | -52.10M | 10.30M | 21.50M |
National Cinemedia Technical Analysis
Positive
3.38
Price Trends
3.34
Positive
3.63
Negative
4.04
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
55.39
Neutral
77.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.23, above the 50-day MA of 3.34, and below the 200-day MA of 4.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NCMI.
National Cinemedia Risk Analysis
National Cinemedia disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Cinemedia reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Cinemedia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | $348.21M | -1.25 | -34.48% | ― | -7.12% | -7.75% | |
54 Neutral | $382.41M | -31.27 | -2.36% | ― | 7.22% | 97.88% | |
52 Neutral | $1.18B | -10.49 | 2.74% | ― | -29.67% | 30.13% | |
50 Neutral | $305.96M | -34.56 | -2.86% | 3.05% | -3.67% | 34.36% | |
43 Neutral | $49.35M | -0.59 | -370.98% | ― | -14.41% | 65.67% | |
| ― | $2.56M | -22.59 | -194.72% | ― | -11.51% | 74.52% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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National Cinemedia Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
National CineMedia Expands Board with Bylaw Amendment
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
On March 26, 2026, National CineMedia, Inc.’s board approved an amendment to its bylaws to increase the size of the board of directors from seven to eight members. The change will become effective immediately before the start of the company&...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.