National Cinemedia (NCMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $444.17M
• Dividend Yield: 1.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 661.43K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.63
• Revenue Growth: 42.01%
• EPS Growth: -100.56%
• Country: US
• Employees: 254
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): -0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 94,304,390
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 714,312
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 661,432
• PEG Ratio: -1.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.21
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.89
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.50
• 1Y Price Target: $6.88
• Price Target Upside: 46.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.50 ▼(-4.05%Downside)

National Cinemedia's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and revenue growth. While there are positive strategic developments, such as the AMC agreement and new product launches, the current technical indicators and valuation metrics suggest caution. The company's high debt levels and recent revenue declines weigh heavily on the score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The recent share price retreat has created a compelling valuation story, with a 30% upside to the price target.

Growth and Expansion

NCM launched its self-serve and programmatic buying options for advertisers, expanding buying options by 50% of its prior capabilities.

Revenue Growth

With NCM’s new guarantees, self-service booking tool, and a strong box office expected, NCM is set for revenue growth in the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Advertising Challenges

Current advertising environment pressures near-term monetization, leading to revised financial estimates for the year.

Economic Challenges

Tariff-related pressure on national ad categories and a challenging setup are impacting financial estimates for the company.

Market Environment

Broader macro and tariff-related headwinds are affecting spend in key categories like auto and technology.

National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment pre-show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically-placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies. The company is also engaged in the sale of online and mobile advertising through its Noovie Audience Accelerator product, as well as a suite of Noovie digital properties, such as Noovie Shuffle, Noovie Trivia, Name That Movie, and Noovie Arcade to reach entertainment audiences beyond the theater. It offers its services to third-party theater circuits under long-term network affiliate agreements. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

National CineMedia generates its revenue primarily through the sale of advertising space within its cinema network. The company's key revenue streams include on-screen advertising, lobby promotions, and digital marketing solutions. On-screen advertising involves the display of commercials and branded content before the start of a movie, providing advertisers with a captive audience. Lobby promotions involve interactive displays and product sampling opportunities in theater lobbies. Additionally, NCMI offers integrated marketing campaigns that leverage both in-theater and online channels to extend advertiser reach. Significant partnerships with major theater chains such as AMC, Regal, and Cinemark enhance NCMI's ability to deliver a wide audience to advertisers, further bolstering its revenue potential.

National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

National Cinemedia faces significant challenges with its income statement indicating poor profitability and declining revenues. The balance sheet shows improvement in equity yet remains burdened by high debt. Cash flow metrics have improved, suggesting better liquidity management, but historical volatility remains a concern.

Income Statement

National Cinemedia's income statement shows significant volatility with declining revenues and profitability over the years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin are adversely affected, with net income consistently negative, indicating core operational challenges. Revenue has decreased significantly from 2019 to 2023, reflecting challenges in maintaining market share or sales growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, underscoring operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture with substantial improvement in stockholders' equity from negative to positive in recent years, highlighting some recovery. However, the high debt levels and past negative equity raise concerns about long-term financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved but remains a point of risk due to potential leverage issues. The equity ratio has shown improvement, but the historical negative equity indicates past financial distress.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals notable improvements with positive free cash flow and operating cash flow in the latest year, suggesting better cash management. Despite prior years of negative free cash flow, the recent trend shows recovery potential. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates better cash conversion, although previous years' negative cash flows highlight historical challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	238.30M	240.80M	165.20M	249.20M	114.60M	90.40M
Gross Profit	92.70M	115.20M	85.10M	222.00M	96.20M	80.10M
EBITDA	25.60M	-1.30M	750.10M	45.00M	-18.20M	129.00M
Net Income	-18.30M	-22.30M	705.20M	-28.60M	-113.50M	-126.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	503.80M	568.60M	567.70M	792.40M	817.40M	886.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	59.80M	75.20M	34.60M	62.40M	102.50M	181.80M
Total Debt	11.90M	10.00M	16.00M	1.12B	1.10B	1.05B
Total Liabilities	133.00M	157.40M	133.20M	1.26B	1.20B	1.15B
Stockholders Equity	370.80M	411.20M	434.50M	-515.30M	-383.50M	-268.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	37.20M	54.50M	-10.00M	-50.20M	-100.90M	47.30M
Operating Cash Flow	42.20M	60.30M	-6.70M	-47.30M	-95.20M	55.30M
Investing Cash Flow	-5.10M	-5.70M	32.60M	-400.00K	-5.40M	15.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-34.20M	-14.10M	-52.10M	10.30M	21.50M	53.50M

National Cinemedia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.69
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.06, below the 50-day MA of 5.20, and below the 200-day MA of 6.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.19 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCMI.

National Cinemedia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NEXN	75 Outperform	$649.05M	15.26	8.57%	―	1.63%	―
DLX	71 Outperform	$737.76M	13.23	9.10%	7.28%	-2.69%	61.73%
EEX	62 Neutral	$1.02B	318.01	1.62%	1.13%	4.87%	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$40.69B	-0.79	-11.97%	3.78%	2.11%	-69.16%
ADV	54 Neutral	$502.68M	―	-42.89%	―	-13.81%	-433.86%
CCO	48 Neutral	$586.12M	―	4.92%	―	-17.54%	66.05%
NCMI	48 Neutral	$444.17M	―	-4.73%	1.27%	42.01%	-100.56%

National Cinemedia Corporate Events

National Cinemedia Extends Agreement with AMC Theatres

On May 1, 2025, National CineMedia held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where all proposals, including the election of directors and executive compensation, were approved. The company reported a decrease in revenue for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year but maintained its financial guidance. A significant development was the extension of a long-term agreement with AMC Theatres, enhancing NCM’s advertising platform and financial outlook by aligning payment structures with performance metrics. This agreement also resolved ongoing litigation, eliminating potential liabilities and streamlining operations.