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National Cinemedia (NCMI)
NASDAQ:NCMI
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National Cinemedia (NCMI) AI Stock Analysis

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NCMI

National Cinemedia

(NASDAQ:NCMI)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(12.11% Upside)
National Cinemedia's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges, including declining revenues and profitability. Technical indicators provide a mixed outlook, while valuation concerns persist due to a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call offers some optimism with growth in advertising platforms and a recovering cinema attendance, but revenue shortfalls and economic uncertainties weigh on the sentiment.
Positive Factors
Programmatic Advertising Growth
The significant growth in programmatic advertising indicates a strong demand for NCMI's digital platforms, enhancing its competitive edge and revenue potential in the evolving advertising landscape.
Self-Serve Platform Adoption
The increase in self-serve platform adoption reflects successful innovation in NCMI's business model, enabling advertisers to engage more flexibly and potentially boosting long-term revenue streams.
Box Office Recovery
The recovery in cinema attendance suggests a rebound in the core market, which can drive higher ad sales and improve financial performance as audience numbers grow.
Negative Factors
Revenue Shortfall
The revenue shortfall highlights ongoing challenges in meeting financial targets, which could impact investor confidence and necessitate strategic adjustments to improve sales performance.
Operating Income Loss
Continued operating losses indicate persistent operational inefficiencies, which may strain resources and hinder the company's ability to invest in growth initiatives.
Economic and Tariff Uncertainty
Economic and tariff uncertainties create a challenging environment for advertising budgets, potentially affecting NCMI's revenue stability and necessitating adaptive strategies to mitigate risks.

National Cinemedia (NCMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational Cinemedia (NCMI) is a leading cinema advertising company in the United States, specializing in providing innovative advertising solutions for brands in movie theaters. The company operates in the entertainment sector and primarily focuses on the advertising market within cinema environments. NCMI's core products include digital pre-show advertising, in-theater promotions, and on-screen advertisements, allowing brands to engage with audiences in a captive and immersive setting before the movie starts.
How the Company Makes MoneyNCMI generates revenue primarily through the sale of advertising space in theaters, which includes pre-show commercials and advertisements displayed on screens before feature films. The company's revenue model is based on partnerships with a network of movie theaters, allowing it to reach a broad audience and sell advertising slots to national and regional advertisers. Key revenue streams include the sale of digital pre-show content, in-theater promotional materials, and collaborations with major film studios for co-promotional opportunities. Additionally, NCMI benefits from strategic partnerships with cinema chains and advertisers, enhancing its market reach and contributing to its earnings through a shared revenue model with theater operators.

National Cinemedia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant growth in programmatic and self-serve advertising platforms and a recovering box office environment. However, the company faced challenges with revenue shortfalls, declines in advertising revenue, and economic uncertainties impacting advertiser budgets. While there is optimism for the third quarter, the mixed performance in the second quarter suggests balanced sentiment.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Programmatic Advertising Growth
Programmatic advertiser volume grew by more than 50% quarter-over-quarter, with approximately 70% of second quarter programmatic advertisers being new to NCM, indicating a growing appeal of their platform.
Self-Serve Platform Adoption
Revenue from the self-serve platform increased more than 30% year-over-year, showing strong adoption as the company heads into the second half of 2025.
Box Office Recovery
NCM reached over 115 million individuals across its network in the second quarter, up 24% compared with the second quarter of '24, highlighting the ongoing recovery in cinema attendance.
New Advertiser Acquisition
NCM welcomed 12 new advertisers that placed major cinema campaigns for the first time since the pandemic, demonstrating their ability to expand their client base.
Third Quarter Momentum
Ad sales commitments for the third quarter are pacing ahead of last year's levels, with improved visibility into the pipeline, suggesting a stronger start to the second half.
Negative Updates
Revenue Shortfall and Adjusted OIBDA
Second quarter total revenue was $51.8 million, below the guidance range of $56 million to $61 million, and adjusted OIBDA was $0.7 million, down from $7.6 million in the prior year.
National and Local Advertising Revenue Decline
National advertising revenue was $41.2 million, slightly down from $41.7 million in Q2 2024, and local and regional advertising revenue was $6.4 million, down from $9.8 million, reflecting cautious advertiser sentiment.
Operating Income Loss
Operating income was negative $12 million compared to negative $9.3 million in the same period last year, primarily due to weaker top-line results.
Economic and Tariff Uncertainty
The second quarter was impacted by heightened volatility in advertiser budgets due to broader economic uncertainty and ongoing tariff-related issues, leading to cautious advertiser behavior.
Company Guidance
In the second quarter of fiscal year 2025, National CineMedia (NCM) faced challenges in the advertising market, resulting in total revenue of $51.8 million and an adjusted OIBDA of $0.7 million, both falling short of expectations. Despite these setbacks, the company remains optimistic about the second half of the year, driven by a robust third-quarter pipeline and improved ad sales commitments. NCM's programmatic advertising saw a significant boost, with advertiser volume increasing by more than 50% quarter-over-quarter, while their self-serve platform revenue grew by over 30% year-over-year. The company is also focusing on enhancing its local sales capabilities, expecting to capitalize on the ongoing recovery in cinema attendance, which reached over 115 million individuals in the second quarter, a 24% increase from the previous year. Looking forward, NCM anticipates third-quarter revenue between $62 million and $67 million and adjusted OIBDA ranging from $7.5 million to $11.5 million, supported by a strong slate of upcoming films and increased advertiser demand.

National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary
National Cinemedia's financial performance is challenged by declining revenues and profitability, with negative net income and high debt levels. However, improvements in cash flow and stockholders' equity provide some positive outlook.
Income Statement
40
Negative
National Cinemedia's income statement shows significant volatility with declining revenues and profitability over the years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin are adversely affected, with net income consistently negative, indicating core operational challenges. Revenue has decreased significantly from 2019 to 2023, reflecting challenges in maintaining market share or sales growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, underscoring operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture with substantial improvement in stockholders' equity from negative to positive in recent years, highlighting some recovery. However, the high debt levels and past negative equity raise concerns about long-term financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved but remains a point of risk due to potential leverage issues. The equity ratio has shown improvement, but the historical negative equity indicates past financial distress.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals notable improvements with positive free cash flow and operating cash flow in the latest year, suggesting better cash management. Despite prior years of negative free cash flow, the recent trend shows recovery potential. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates better cash conversion, although previous years' negative cash flows highlight historical challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue235.40M240.80M165.20M249.20M114.60M90.40M
Gross Profit87.40M72.80M85.10M222.00M96.20M80.10M
EBITDA22.00M22.00M750.10M45.00M-18.20M129.00M
Net Income-20.30M-22.30M705.20M-28.60M-113.50M-126.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets462.00M568.60M567.70M792.40M817.40M886.20M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments40.30M75.20M34.60M62.40M102.50M181.80M
Total Debt13.50M10.00M16.00M1.12B1.10B1.05B
Total Liabilities112.00M157.40M133.20M1.26B1.20B1.15B
Stockholders Equity350.00M411.20M434.50M-515.30M-383.50M-268.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow24.20M54.50M-10.00M-50.20M-100.90M47.30M
Operating Cash Flow29.60M60.30M-6.70M-47.30M-95.20M55.30M
Investing Cash Flow-5.70M-5.70M32.60M-400.00K-5.40M15.60M
Financing Cash Flow-40.40M-14.10M-52.10M10.30M21.50M53.50M

National Cinemedia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.46
Price Trends
50DMA
4.60
Negative
100DMA
4.81
Negative
200DMA
5.50
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
41.59
Neutral
STOCH
12.89
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.67, below the 50-day MA of 4.60, and below the 200-day MA of 5.50, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.89 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCMI.

National Cinemedia Risk Analysis

National Cinemedia disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Cinemedia reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

National Cinemedia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
54
Neutral
$775.34M-11.55-0.67%-21.67%81.70%
53
Neutral
$415.19M534.410.14%9.53%
52
Neutral
$429.19M-5.50%1.99%13.34%-107.92%
48
Neutral
$125.64M-0.65-312.30%-12.84%5.09%
48
Neutral
$488.92M-1.45-44.47%-10.21%-81.84%
31
Underperform
$120.94M-13.27-569.80%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NCMI
National Cinemedia
4.46
-2.09
-31.91%
CCO
Clear Channel Outdoor
1.56
0.06
4.00%
BOC
Boston Omaha
13.20
-1.18
-8.21%
CDLX
Cardlytics
2.36
-0.70
-22.88%
ADV
Advantage Solutions
1.50
-1.63
-52.08%
VSME
VS Media Holdings Limited Class A
2.44
1.64
205.00%

National Cinemedia Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesLegal ProceedingsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Cinemedia Extends Agreement with AMC Theatres
Positive
May 6, 2025

On May 1, 2025, National CineMedia held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where all proposals, including the election of directors and executive compensation, were approved. The company reported a decrease in revenue for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year but maintained its financial guidance. A significant development was the extension of a long-term agreement with AMC Theatres, enhancing NCM’s advertising platform and financial outlook by aligning payment structures with performance metrics. This agreement also resolved ongoing litigation, eliminating potential liabilities and streamlining operations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 26, 2025