Advantage Solutions (ADV)
NASDAQ:ADV
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Advantage Solutions
(NASDAQ:ADV)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$19.00
▲(2083.91% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
Overall score reflects a company with improved balance-sheet flexibility and positive (but weakening) free cash flow, partially offset by ongoing losses and only flat revenue. Technicals are neutral with the stock still well below longer-term averages, while valuation is constrained by negative earnings. Guidance was cautious on EBITDA but constructive on cash flow and deleveraging, and corporate events add both refinancing progress and listing-risk overhang.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet de-risking
A dramatic reduction in reported total debt materially lowers refinancing and liquidity risk and meaningfully increases strategic optionality. Over the next 2–6 months this supports capital allocation flexibility, reduces default risk, and gives management runway to execute deleveraging and productivity initiatives.
Negative Factors
Branded Services weakness
Sustained weakness in branded-services revenue reflects structural client behavior shifts—CPG spend restraint and insourcing—that erode higher-value contracted work. Over months this compresses revenue predictability, reduces cross-sell opportunity and forces the company to rely more on lower-margin channels.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet de-risking
A dramatic reduction in reported total debt materially lowers refinancing and liquidity risk and meaningfully increases strategic optionality. Over the next 2–6 months this supports capital allocation flexibility, reduces default risk, and gives management runway to execute deleveraging and productivity initiatives.
Read all positive factors
Advantage Solutions (ADV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$306.55M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)652.90K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth-7.12%
EPS Growth-7.75%
CountryUS
Employees17,000
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryAdvertising Agencies
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-12.49
Shares Outstanding13,100,308
10 Day Avg. Volume398,695
30 Day Avg. Volume652,905
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.08
P/FCF Ratio5.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.26
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.50Price Target Upside2141.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.53B
Advantage Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Advantage Solutions Inc. provides outsourced solutions to consumer goods companies and retailers in North America and internationally. It operates in two segments, Sales and Marketing. The Sales segment offers brand-centric services, such as headq...
How the Company Makes Money
Advantage Solutions makes money by selling business-to-business services to consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands and retailers, typically under service contracts and project-based engagements. Key revenue streams include: (1) Sales and retail exec...
Advantage Solutions Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 03, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Neutral — The company demonstrated clear financial and operational progress in cash generation, liquidity, balance-sheet actions (refinancing and planned debt paydown), and a strong rebound in Experiential Services driven by higher event volumes and improved execution. However, material challenges persist: Branded Services remains pressured by softer CPG spending and client insourcing, the business mix is shifting toward lower-margin labor-intensive offerings, leverage remains above the long-term target, and near-term margin/headcount costs (workers' comp/benefits and final-stage IT spend) will weigh on adjusted EBITDA. Management provided prudent 2026 guidance (flat to low-single-digit revenue growth excluding divestitures, and flat to down mid-single-digit adjusted EBITDA) and a plan to convert strong cash flow into further deleveraging and productivity gains.Positive Updates
Company-level revenue and profitability (Q4)
Net revenues of $785,000,000 in Q4 2025, up ~3% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $88,000,000 for the quarter. Q4 adjusted unlevered free cash flow was ~$75,000,000 (conversion ~130% excluding payroll timing).
Negative Updates
Branded Services under pressure
Branded Services Q4 revenue ~ $259,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA ~$39,000,000 with management reporting significant year-over-year declines (transcript includes unusually large YoY percentage figures). Full-year Branded Services revenue ~$1,000,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA ~$143,000,000, described as materially down versus prior year. Drivers: sustained softness in CPG spending, tighter procurement, client insourcing, and challenges in sales brokerage and omni-commerce marketing.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Company-level revenue and profitability (Q4)
Net revenues of $785,000,000 in Q4 2025, up ~3% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $88,000,000 for the quarter. Q4 adjusted unlevered free cash flow was ~$75,000,000 (conversion ~130% excluding payroll timing).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 revenue (excluding recent divestitures) to be flat to up low-single-digits and adjusted EBITDA (excluding divestitures) to be flat to down mid-single-digits, while forecasting unlevered free cash flow of approximately $250–275 million and net free cash flow conversion of at least ~25% of adjusted EBITDA (excluding incremental refinancing costs). They expect CapEx of $50–60 million (the final year of elevated IT spend), a widening of first-half/second-half EBITDA with roughly 60% of EBITDA in the second half, and continued working-capital gains (DSO improved to ~57 days). At year-end cash was $241 million and net leverage was ~4.4x (long‑term target ≤3.5x); management plans a ~$90 million debt paydown as part of a refinancing that extends maturities to 2030, raises borrowing costs roughly 150 bps (term loan priced at SOFR+600 bps) and may add ~ $10 million of interest in 2026. For context, 2025 produced ~$75 million of adjusted unlevered free cash flow in Q4 (conversion nearly 130% excluding payroll timing) and full‑year conversion ~80%, and divestitures contributed roughly $20 million of revenue and just over $10 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.Advantage Solutions Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.54B | 3.57B | 3.90B | 3.65B | 3.60B |
| Gross Profit | 494.35M | 507.27M | 485.08M | 472.85M | 638.17M |
| EBITDA | 75.88M | -89.85M | 255.73M | -1.26B | 469.13M |
| Net Income | -227.74M | -326.96M | -63.32M | -1.38B | 54.49M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.79B | 3.11B | 3.78B | 4.26B | 5.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 240.85M | 205.23M | 120.84M | 120.72M | 164.62M |
| Total Debt | 13.25M | 1.74B | 1.91B | 2.11B | 2.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.24B | 2.36B | 2.68B | 3.03B | 3.27B |
| Stockholders Equity | 553.96M | 748.74M | 1.11B | 1.12B | 2.48B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 55.05M | 37.76M | 186.93M | 71.69M | 94.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 61.53M | 93.09M | 228.49M | 104.70M | 125.99M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.84M | 206.45M | -50.52M | -106.10M | -75.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.21M | -211.42M | -178.40M | -31.38M | -86.30M |
Advantage Solutions Technical Analysis
Positive
0.87
Price Trends
18.90
Positive
20.88
Positive
30.02
Negative
Market Momentum
1.50
Negative
58.09
Neutral
55.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.11, below the 50-day MA of 18.90, and below the 200-day MA of 30.02, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADV.
Advantage Solutions Risk Analysis
Advantage Solutions disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Advantage Solutions reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Advantage Solutions Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $1.28B | 11.93 | 13.07% | 5.41% | -0.94% | 47.48% | |
66 Neutral | $371.48M | 0.08 | 96.63% | ― | 26.91% | 8746.89% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
58 Neutral | $910.38M | -7.32 | -8.24% | 1.29% | 11.18% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $306.55M | -1.25 | -34.48% | ― | -7.12% | -7.75% | |
50 Neutral | $307.37M | -34.56 | -2.86% | 3.05% | -3.67% | 34.36% | |
| ― | $2.97M | -22.59 | -194.72% | ― | -11.51% | 74.52% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
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Advantage Solutions Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Advantage Solutions Updates Executive Officer Leadership Classification
Neutral
Mar 31, 2026
Advantage Solutions Inc. reported a leadership change involving Dean General, who had previously transitioned into the newly created role of Chief Industry Development Officer as disclosed on August 8, 2025. Effective March 26, 2026, the company s...
Delistings and Listing ChangesShareholder MeetingsStock Split
Advantage Solutions Implements Reverse Stock Split to Maintain Listing
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
Advantage Solutions Inc. implemented a 1-for-25 reverse stock split of its Class A common stock on March 26, 2026, following shareholder approval at a special meeting held on March 16, 2026, and the subsequent board authorization. The move consoli...
Shareholder MeetingsStock Split
Advantage Solutions Sets 1-for-25 Reverse Stock Split
Neutral
Mar 17, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Advantage Solutions Inc. stockholders approved amendments to its certificate of incorporation authorizing a reverse stock split at a ratio between 1-for-10 and 1-for-25, along with related reductions in authorized common and pre...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Advantage Solutions Advances Major Debt Exchange and Refinancing
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
On February 23, 2026, Advantage Sales Marketing Inc., an indirect subsidiary of Advantage Solutions Inc., reported that holders of more than 99% of its $595.1 million 6.50% senior secured notes due 2028 had tendered into a previously launched exc...
Executive/Board Changes
Advantage Solutions refreshes board with new PE representatives
Neutral
Feb 20, 2026
Advantage Solutions Inc. announced that directors Cameron Breitner and Adam Nebesar notified the company on February 17, 2026, of their resignations from the board of directors, effective February 20, 2026. Their departures come under an existing ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Advantage Solutions Launches Debt Exchange and Consent Solicitation
Negative
Feb 9, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Advantage Sales Marketing Inc., an indirect subsidiary of Advantage Solutions, entered into a Transaction Support Agreement with a majority of its noteholders and term loan lenders to execute a comprehensive extension of debt...
Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Advantage Solutions Faces Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Noncompliance
Negative
Jan 9, 2026
On January 7, 2026, Advantage Solutions Inc. disclosed that it received a notice from Nasdaq stating the company is out of compliance with the exchange’s $1.00 minimum bid price requirement, triggering a 180-day grace period until July 6, 20...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.