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NBT Bancorp
(NASDAQ:NBTB)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$60.00
▲(14.55% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/08/26
NBTB scores well on fundamentals, led by improving profitability and a generally sound balance sheet, reinforced by a positive earnings update highlighting record net interest income and constructive margin guidance. Technicals also support the score with an established uptrend and balanced momentum. Valuation adds support through a moderate P/E and a ~2.8% dividend yield, while the primary watch-outs remain operating cash-flow volatility and a recent increase in total debt.
Positive Factors
Net interest income and margin expansion
Sustained growth in net interest income and a higher NIM indicate durable earnings leverage from core lending and investment activities. Management's guidance for continued modest margin expansion via repricing and reinvestment implies structural improvement in recurring net interest revenue and long‑term profitability.
Negative Factors
Operating cash flow volatility
Volatile operating cash flow conversion signals timing and working‑capital swings that can intermittently strain liquidity and constrain reinvestment or payout plans. Over a multi‑quarter horizon, inconsistent cash conversion raises the need for higher buffers and careful liquidity management to sustain capital returns and growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Net interest income and margin expansion
Sustained growth in net interest income and a higher NIM indicate durable earnings leverage from core lending and investment activities. Management's guidance for continued modest margin expansion via repricing and reinvestment implies structural improvement in recurring net interest revenue and long‑term profitability.
Read all positive factors
NBT Bancorp (NBTB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.78B
Dividend Yield2.76%
Average Volume (3M)188.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1
Beta (1Y)0.78
Revenue Growth14.46%
EPS Growth46.91%
CountryUS
Employees2,303
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.10
Shares Outstanding51,960,060
10 Day Avg. Volume197,356
30 Day Avg. Volume188,656
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio8.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$56.00Price Target Upside6.91% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)$759.66M
NBT Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides personal and commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services in the United States. It operates through Banking, Retirement Plan Administration, and All Other segments. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
NBT Bancorp primarily earns money through its bank and related financial services subsidiaries. The largest revenue driver is net interest income: NBT collects interest on loans (e.g., commercial, commercial real estate, residential mortgage, and ...
NBT Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 27, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reflected a predominantly positive performance: record net interest income, margin expansion, broad-based loan growth, improved profitability and capital metrics (tangible book up 12.8%, dividend increase, buybacks). Noninterest income growth and expense discipline further reinforced results. The negatives were largely manageable and tactical — seasonal deposit outflows, modest uptick in provisions tied to growth, small drag in wealth fees, competitive pressure in some origination yields and a cautious M&A backdrop. Overall, strengths materially outweigh the headwinds, supporting a constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Record Net Interest Income and Margin Expansion
Net interest income reached a record $137 million (up $3 million QoQ and >10% YoY). Net interest margin expanded to 3.73%, up 14 basis points YoY and 1 basis point QoQ, driven by organic growth in interest-earning assets and lower funding costs.
Negative Updates
Seasonal and Short-Term Deposit Volatility
Deposits declined $106 million from 3/31/2026 due to expected seasonal municipal outflows tied to tax collection/disbursement cycles, highlighting quarter-to-quarter volatility in deposit balances.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Net Interest Income and Margin Expansion
Net interest income reached a record $137 million (up $3 million QoQ and >10% YoY). Net interest margin expanded to 3.73%, up 14 basis points YoY and 1 basis point QoQ, driven by organic growth in interest-earning assets and lower funding costs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to modest margin expansion over the next few quarters—driven by repricing of commercial and some residential originations and reinvestment of cash flows—after reporting a 3.73% NIM (up 14 bps y/y, +1 bp q/q) and record NII of $137M; loans totaled $11.9B (+$276M since 12/31/25; +2.4% H1), deposits $13.5B, deposit cost 1.33% and cost of funds 1.41% with ~60% of deposits in no/low‑cost checking & savings at a blended cost just under 40 bps. Quarterly operating metrics were strong (net income $53M, $1.20 diluted EPS; operating ROA 1.32%; operating ROTE 15.61%; tangible book $27.71, +12.8% y/y; operating earnings +15% y/y), fee income $49.6M (+5.8% y/y) and noninterest income ~27% of revenues, provisions $6.1M, reserves 1.18% of loans (>2x NPLs), and an efficiency ratio back below 60%; management expects full‑year expense growth around 2.5–3%, $350–400M of securities cash flows over 12 months (supporting higher portfolio yields if rates hold), continued capital accumulation (~$125M/year given a run‑rate EPS ~ $4), an increased quarterly dividend of $0.40 (Q3; +8.1% y/y), and opportunistic share repurchases (318k shares bought H1).NBT Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 945.29M | 867.43M | 785.99M | 662.35M | 537.00M | 494.75M |
| Gross Profit | 723.81M | 625.73M | 554.83M | 492.50M | 497.97M | 484.22M |
| EBITDA | 301.53M | 241.03M | 206.95M | 175.73M | 215.22M | 219.74M |
| Net Income | 214.15M | 169.24M | 140.64M | 118.78M | 152.00M | 154.88M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.21B | 16.00B | 13.79B | 13.31B | 11.74B | 12.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 187.16M | 185.16M | 420.42M | 1.64B | 1.72B | 2.96B |
| Total Debt | 471.19M | 327.42M | 414.98M | 637.39M | 787.95M | 311.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 14.27B | 14.10B | 12.26B | 11.88B | 10.57B | 10.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.94B | 1.90B | 1.53B | 1.43B | 1.17B | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 245.61M | 218.92M | 176.82M | 148.20M | 176.21M | 151.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 261.66M | 235.22M | 188.57M | 157.46M | 183.22M | 159.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -484.18M | 169.07M | -399.16M | -44.23M | -926.22M | -547.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -24.39M | -201.23M | 289.46M | -105.39M | -328.73M | 984.81M |
NBT Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
52.38
Price Trends
50.47
Positive
47.36
Positive
44.70
Positive
Market Momentum
0.81
Positive
61.62
Neutral
65.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBTB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 52.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.86, above the 50-day MA of 50.47, and above the 200-day MA of 44.70, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.81 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 61.62 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBTB.
NBT Bancorp Risk Analysis
NBT Bancorp disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NBT Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
NBT Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $2.78B | 13.06 | 11.26% | 2.82% | 14.46% | 46.91% | |
75 Outperform | $2.64B | 16.88 | 13.56% | 1.56% | 9.30% | 15.23% | |
74 Outperform | $2.40B | 13.10 | 9.42% | 1.97% | 7.98% | -4.69% | |
72 Outperform | $2.50B | 12.15 | 10.65% | 2.85% | 2.89% | 15.51% | |
70 Outperform | $2.82B | 9.84 | 13.57% | ― | 11.55% | 103.48% | |
68 Neutral | $2.74B | 20.60 | 8.01% | 1.50% | 4.15% | 36.83% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
NBTB
NBT Bancorp
53.56
12.84
31.53%
BANR
Banner
74.01
12.28
19.89%
EFSC
Enterprise Financial Services
66.43
10.78
19.38%
FBNC
First Bancorp
66.34
15.00
29.20%
SYBT
Stock Yards Bancorp
85.06
11.97
16.37%
CUBI
Customers Bancorp
83.58
17.70
26.87%
NBT Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
NBT Bancorp Declares Dividend and Confirms Governance Stability
Positive
May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company headquartered in Norwich, N.Y., reported total assets of $16.20 billion and operations centered on NBT Bank, N.A., a full-service community bank with 176 branches across seven Northeas...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
NBT Bancorp Highlights Investor Engagement at 2026 Annual Meeting
Positive
May 18, 2026
On May 19, 2026, NBT Bancorp Inc. plans to deliver a presentation at its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, underscoring its ongoing engagement with investors and governance processes. The company has made the accompanying presentation slides ac...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.