NBT Bancorp (NBTB)
NASDAQ:NBTB
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NBT Bancorp
(NASDAQ:NBTB)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(11.85% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (growth, profitability, and improved leverage) tempered by cash-flow volatility. The earnings call adds support due to strong profitability metrics, tangible book growth, and capital returns, while technical indicators remain a notable drag due to weak near-term momentum. Valuation is a modest positive given the moderate P/E and attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth & profitability
Sustained double-digit top-line expansion and a solid 19.5% net margin in 2025 indicate durable revenue drivers. Growth from both net interest income and fees diversifies earnings, supporting lasting earnings power and reinvestment capacity over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Cash-flow volatility
A large drop in free cash flow and weaker operating cash flow coverage reduce earnings quality and limit internal funding flexibility. Volatile cash conversion can constrain lending, investment, or buybacks and raises reliance on stable deposit inflows over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth & profitability
Sustained double-digit top-line expansion and a solid 19.5% net margin in 2025 indicate durable revenue drivers. Growth from both net interest income and fees diversifies earnings, supporting lasting earnings power and reinvestment capacity over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
NBT Bancorp (NBTB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.19B
Dividend Yield3.33%
Average Volume (3M)188.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth11.63%
EPS Growth5.58%
CountryUS
Employees2,083
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.05
Shares Outstanding52,204,410
10 Day Avg. Volume197,356
30 Day Avg. Volume188,656
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.96
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio8.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.02
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.36
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$50.33Price Target Upside19.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)4.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$762.66M
NBT Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services. Its deposit products include demand deposit, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, money market deposit, and certificate...
How the Company Makes Money
NBT Bancorp generates revenue primarily through net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is earned from the interest on loans and investments minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. The bank's loan portfolio inc...
NBT Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted solid financial performance: strong profitability (ROA and ROTCE), double-digit revenue growth (+25% YoY), meaningful loan and deposit expansion, an 11% increase in tangible book value, successful integration of the Evans acquisition, and record nonbanking revenues. Management also signaled disciplined capital deployment (dividend increase and opportunistic buybacks) and targeted market investments. On the downside, unscheduled CRE payoffs and some spread compression pressured loan growth and incremental margin expansion; provisions and net charge-offs ticked up slightly and certain runoff portfolios required reserve recalibration. Overall, positive operating momentum and healthy capital/asset quality suggest the positives materially outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Operating Profitability
Operating return on assets 1.37% (second consecutive quarter) and return on tangible equity 17.02%, demonstrating positive operating leverage.
Negative Updates
Unscheduled CRE Payoffs Weighed on Loan Growth
Approximately $150M–$175M of unscheduled commercial real estate payoffs in 2025 reduced loan growth and may present a continuing headwind for near-term loan growth.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operating Profitability
Operating return on assets 1.37% (second consecutive quarter) and return on tangible equity 17.02%, demonstrating positive operating leverage.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized stability with modest upside: Q4 NIM was 3.65% (‑1 bp QoQ) and they see margin largely stable with potential 2–3 bps of expansion per quarter versus modest downside risk (Q1 could move ±1–2 bps), while net interest income growth will come more from earning‑asset growth than big spread expansion; ~ $3.0B of earning assets reprice immediately with Fed moves, ~ $6.0B of deposits are price‑sensitive, deposit cost has fallen to ~2.0% (58% or $7.8B of deposits are no/low‑cost at ~80 bps) and 77% of CDs reprice in the next two quarters. They expect mid‑ to lower‑single‑digit loan growth in 2026 (loans were $11.6B, +16.3% YoY including Evans, with $150–175M of unscheduled CRE payoffs in 2025 and an ~$800M runoff portfolio declining ≈$100M/year), investment cash flows of roughly $25M/month from securities to reinvest, and mortgage repricing headroom of ~125–130 bps. Capital and credit guidance: operating ROA was 1.37% and ROTCE 17.02%, tangible book was $26.54 (+11% YoY), reserves were 1.19% of loans covering NPLs 2.5x, Q4 provision was $3.8M, normalized charge‑offs expected ~15–20 bps, noninterest fee income was $49.6M (27% of revenues), operating expenses (ex‑acquisition) $112M, effective tax rate Q4 20.3% (FY ~23%), dividend up 8.8% YoY and the bank repurchased 250k shares (~$10M) with capacity to self‑fund similar repurchases going forward.NBT Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 867.43M | 785.99M | 662.35M | 537.00M | 494.75M |
| Gross Profit | 625.73M | 554.83M | 492.50M | 497.97M | 484.22M |
| EBITDA | 241.03M | 206.95M | 175.73M | 215.22M | 219.74M |
| Net Income | 169.24M | 140.64M | 118.78M | 152.00M | 154.88M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.00B | 13.79B | 13.31B | 11.74B | 12.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 185.16M | 420.42M | 1.64B | 1.72B | 2.96B |
| Total Debt | 327.42M | 414.98M | 637.39M | 787.95M | 311.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 14.10B | 12.26B | 11.88B | 10.57B | 10.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.90B | 1.53B | 1.43B | 1.17B | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 218.92M | 176.82M | 148.20M | 176.21M | 151.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 235.22M | 188.57M | 157.46M | 183.22M | 159.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 169.07M | -399.16M | -44.23M | -926.22M | -547.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -201.23M | 289.46M | -105.39M | -328.73M | 984.81M |
NBT Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
42.02
Price Trends
43.30
Negative
42.49
Negative
41.85
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.34
Negative
47.88
Neutral
75.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBTB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.72, below the 50-day MA of 43.30, and above the 200-day MA of 41.85, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBTB.
NBT Bancorp Risk Analysis
NBT Bancorp disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NBT Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NBT Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $2.31B | 18.91 | 7.03% | 1.69% | -5.72% | -3.86% | |
68 Neutral | $2.19B | 11.56 | 9.51% | 3.33% | 11.63% | 5.58% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $2.05B | 10.97 | 10.28% | 2.97% | 6.98% | 15.08% | |
67 Neutral | $2.30B | 11.16 | 11.25% | ― | -0.37% | -20.30% | |
66 Neutral | $1.98B | 9.91 | 10.25% | 2.20% | 6.59% | 9.36% | |
66 Neutral | $1.92B | 13.61 | 13.69% | 1.88% | 11.74% | 26.27% |
* Financial Sector Average
NBTB
NBT Bancorp
42.02
0.77
1.87%
BANR
Banner
60.08
-1.43
-2.33%
EFSC
Enterprise Financial Services
53.90
1.58
3.02%
FBNC
First Bancorp
55.70
15.90
39.95%
SYBT
Stock Yards Bancorp
65.18
-2.53
-3.73%
CUBI
Customers Bancorp
67.25
16.47
32.43%
NBT Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NBT Bancorp Releases Updated Investor Presentation for Stakeholders
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, NBT Bancorp Inc., the holding company for NBT Bank N.A., disclosed that it has prepared a new investor presentation for use by its executive management team in upcoming meetings with investors and analysts. The slide deck has...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
NBT Bancorp announces executive succession alongside strong results
Positive
Jan 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, NBT Bancorp reported that net income for the fourth quarter of 2025 rose to $55.5 million, or $1.06 per diluted share, up from $36.0 million, or $0.76 per share, a year earlier, while full-year 2025 net income increased to $16...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.