NBT Bancorp (NBTB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.32B
• Dividend Yield: 3.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 188.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 11.63%
• EPS Growth: 5.58%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,083
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.05
• Shares Outstanding: 52,315,193
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 197,356
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 188,656
• PEG Ratio: 1.38
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.87
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.70
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.71
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.54
• 1Y Price Target: $50.00
• Price Target Upside: 12.54% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $50.00 ▲(12.54% Upside)

Overall score reflects strong underlying financial stability (low leverage, solid profitability, and improving cash generation) as the primary support, reinforced by a positive earnings narrative (improving margins and fee income, dividend growth) and reasonable valuation (moderate P/E with a ~3.25% yield). Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages, though momentum indicators are more neutral-to-moderately strong than decisively bullish.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheet

NBT's very low debt-to-equity and strong equity ratio signal durable capital strength that supports lending, deposit growth, and regulatory cushions. Over 2-6 months this underpins capacity for organic expansion, merger integration, and sustained dividend policy without stressing liquidity.

Sustained NIM improvement

Six straight quarters of NIM expansion reflect improving asset-liability repricing and benefit from the Evans acquisition. If maintained, higher margins translate to durable net interest income growth, supporting profitability even with modest loan growth and funding-cost normalization over the medium term.

Strong cash generation

Robust free cash flow growth and >1x cash conversion indicate reliable internal funding for dividends, branch expansion, and share repurchases. Durable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing and supports capital returns and strategic investments over the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Muted loan growth outlook

Management expects only low-to-mid single-digit loan growth and flagged elevated commercial real estate payoffs. Persistently slow loan growth limits sustainable net interest income expansion and revenue diversification, constraining medium-term earnings leverage despite margin gains.

Provision volatility

Large quarter-to-quarter swings in acquisition-related provisioning highlight exposure to credit and integration uncertainties. Continued provisioning volatility can produce earnings variability and complicate capital planning and dividend sustainability over the next several quarters if asset-quality trends shift.

C-suite credit leadership change

The planned departure of the Chief Credit Officer introduces risk to underwriting and risk-management continuity during a period of integration and CRE payoffs. Transition risk can affect provisioning, portfolio oversight, and execution of credit strategy over the medium term if succession is not seamless.

NBT Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services. Its deposit products include demand deposit, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts. The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, agricultural, and commercial construction loans; indirect and direct consumer, home equity, mortgages, business banking loans, and commercial loans; and residential real estate loans. It also provides trust and investment services; financial planning and life insurance services; and retirement plan consulting and recordkeeping services. In addition, the company offers insurance products comprising personal property and casualty, business liability, and commercial insurance, as well as other products and services through 24-hour online, mobile, and telephone channels that enable customers to check balances, make deposits, transfer funds, pay bills, access statements, apply for loans, and access various other products and services. As of December 31, 2021, it had 140 branches and 164 ATMs in New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine. NBT Bancorp Inc. was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Norwich, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

NBT Bancorp generates revenue primarily through net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is earned from the interest on loans and investments minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. The bank's loan portfolio includes commercial, residential, and consumer loans which contribute significantly to this revenue stream. Non-interest income includes fees from services such as account maintenance, transaction fees, wealth management fees, and insurance commissions. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships with other financial institutions to enhance service offerings and increase customer engagement, further contributing to its earnings.

NBT Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals: revenue growth (4.52% TTM) and healthy net margin (17.34%) support profitability, the balance sheet shows very low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.10) and a solid equity base (equity ratio 11.50%), and cash generation is robust with strong cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income 1.37) and free cash flow growth (18.02% TTM). Slight EBIT margin slippage indicates mild operating pressure.

Income Statement

NBT Bancorp shows a strong revenue growth rate of 4.52% in the TTM, with consistent gross profit margins above 70%. The net profit margin is healthy at 17.34%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the slight decline in EBIT margin from 22.83% in 2024 to 22.62% in TTM suggests some pressure on operating efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a stable and growing revenue base with robust profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is solid with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.10 in the TTM, indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity is reasonable at 8.87%, reflecting effective use of equity capital. The equity ratio stands at 11.50%, showcasing a strong equity base relative to total assets. Overall, the balance sheet demonstrates financial stability and low leverage risk.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant free cash flow growth rate of 18.02% in the TTM, highlighting improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.37 indicates strong cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.96 suggests most of the net income is being converted into free cash flow, which is positive. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong cash generation capabilities with room for further improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	863.48M	785.99M	662.35M	537.00M	494.75M	491.26M
Gross Profit	627.90M	554.83M	492.50M	497.97M	484.22M	407.52M
EBITDA	221.07M	206.95M	175.73M	215.22M	219.74M	153.64M
Net Income	149.73M	140.64M	118.78M	152.00M	154.88M	104.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.11B	13.79B	13.31B	11.74B	12.01B	10.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	806.05M	420.42M	1.64B	1.72B	2.96B	2.02B
Total Debt	319.36M	414.98M	637.39M	787.95M	311.48M	406.73M
Total Liabilities	14.26B	12.26B	11.88B	10.57B	10.76B	9.75B
Stockholders Equity	1.85B	1.53B	1.43B	1.17B	1.25B	1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	208.37M	176.82M	148.20M	176.21M	151.44M	137.12M
Operating Cash Flow	218.24M	188.57M	157.46M	183.22M	159.19M	145.27M
Investing Cash Flow	57.32M	-399.16M	-44.23M	-926.22M	-547.61M	-712.59M
Financing Cash Flow	-117.78M	289.46M	-105.39M	-328.73M	984.81M	1.02B

NBT Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 44.43
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBTB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.31, above the 50-day MA of 42.68, and above the 200-day MA of 41.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBTB.

NBT Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NBTB	77 Outperform	$2.32B	13.34	8.87%	3.33%	11.63%	5.58%
CUBI	75 Outperform	$2.70B	12.74	11.34%	―	-0.37%	-20.30%
FBNC	74 Outperform	$2.40B	21.62	6.39%	1.69%	-5.72%	-3.86%
SYBT	74 Outperform	$2.00B	14.25	13.69%	1.88%	11.74%	26.27%
BANR	71 Outperform	$2.11B	10.96	10.28%	2.97%	6.98%	15.08%
EFSC	70 Outperform	$2.12B	10.80	10.25%	2.20%	6.59%	9.36%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

NBT Bancorp Corporate Events

NBT Bancorp announces executive succession alongside strong results

On January 26, 2026, NBT Bancorp reported that net income for the fourth quarter of 2025 rose to $55.5 million, or $1.06 per diluted share, up from $36.0 million, or $0.76 per share, a year earlier, while full-year 2025 net income increased to $169.2 million, or $3.33 per diluted share, from $140.6 million, or $2.97 per share, in 2024. The bank’s 2025 performance was bolstered by its May 2, 2025 acquisition of Evans Bancorp, which added 200 employees, 18 branches, $1.67 billion in loans and $1.86 billion in deposits, driving double-digit growth in loans and deposits, record net revenues, and a reported return on average assets of 1.37% and tangible common equity returns above 17%, while maintaining stable asset quality and strong capital ratios. The company highlighted slight quarterly net interest margin compression due to Federal Reserve rate cuts late in 2025, but benefited from lower funding costs, ongoing organic loan and deposit growth, and its thirteenth consecutive annual dividend increase, underscoring a strategy focused on profitable expansion and shareholder returns amid a changing rate environment. Separately, the company announced that Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer and Chief Risk Officer Amy C. Wiles, a member of the executive team since 2017, notified NBT on January 26, 2026 that she will step down from her role effective May 21, 2026 and move to an advisory position until her planned retirement in January 2027, with the company emphasizing that her transition does not stem from any disagreement with management or operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBTB) stock is a Buy with a $51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NBT Bancorp stock, see the NBTB Stock Forecast page.

NBT Bancorp Unveils New Investor Presentation

On November 4, 2025, NBT Bancorp Inc. announced that its executive management team plans to use a new presentation in future meetings with investors and analysts. The presentation slides have been made available on the company’s website, indicating a proactive approach to engaging with stakeholders and providing transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBTB) stock is a Buy with a $44.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NBT Bancorp stock, see the NBTB Stock Forecast page.