NBT Bancorp (NBTB) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.23B
• Dividend Yield: 3.33%
• Average Volume (3M): 188.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: 11.63%
• EPS Growth: 5.58%
• Country: US
• Employees: 2,083
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 1.05
• Shares Outstanding: 52,204,410
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 197,356
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 188,656
• PEG Ratio: 0.96
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.37
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.28
• 1Y Price Target: $50.33
• Price Target Upside: 17.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 4.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $762.66M

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $47.00 ▲(9.86% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/28/26

The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (growth, profitability, and improved leverage) tempered by cash-flow volatility. The earnings call adds support due to strong profitability metrics, tangible book growth, and capital returns, while technical indicators remain a notable drag due to weak near-term momentum. Valuation is a modest positive given the moderate P/E and attractive dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth & profitability

Sustained double-digit top-line expansion and a solid 19.5% net margin in 2025 indicate durable revenue drivers. Growth from both net interest income and fees diversifies earnings, supporting lasting earnings power and reinvestment capacity over the next several quarters.

Successful acquisition & market expansion

A well-executed acquisition that immediately expanded loans, deposits and regional presence strengthens scale and cross-sell opportunity. Integration success reduces execution risk and should sustainably lift revenue diversification and local market share over 2–6 months and beyond.

Strong capital position & shareholder returns

Consistent dividend increases and opportunistic buybacks alongside materially improved leverage reflect robust capital generation and conservative balance sheet management. This supports continued capital returns and buffers against shocks while enabling measured growth investments.

Negative Factors

Cash-flow volatility

A large drop in free cash flow and weaker operating cash flow coverage reduce earnings quality and limit internal funding flexibility. Volatile cash conversion can constrain lending, investment, or buybacks and raises reliance on stable deposit inflows over the medium term.

Limited NIM upside & spread pressure

Constrained net interest margin expansion and pressure on spreads from a flatter curve limit the bank's primary profitability lever. With a high share of price-sensitive deposits and competitive spread compression, sustainable NII growth will rely more on balance-sheet growth than margin improvement.

Runoff portfolios & unscheduled payoffs

Large unscheduled CRE payoffs and legacy runoff portfolios reduce loan balances and typical net interest income sources, forcing the bank to replace lower-yielding or hard-to-sell assets. Increased reserve adjustments for runoff portfolios also pressure recurring earnings and credit metrics.

NBT Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services. Its deposit products include demand deposit, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts. The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, agricultural, and commercial construction loans; indirect and direct consumer, home equity, mortgages, business banking loans, and commercial loans; and residential real estate loans. It also provides trust and investment services; financial planning and life insurance services; and retirement plan consulting and recordkeeping services. In addition, the company offers insurance products comprising personal property and casualty, business liability, and commercial insurance, as well as other products and services through 24-hour online, mobile, and telephone channels that enable customers to check balances, make deposits, transfer funds, pay bills, access statements, apply for loans, and access various other products and services. As of December 31, 2021, it had 140 branches and 164 ATMs in New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine. NBT Bancorp Inc. was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Norwich, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

NBT Bancorp generates revenue primarily through net interest income and non-interest income. Net interest income is earned from the interest on loans and investments minus the interest paid on deposits and borrowings. The bank's loan portfolio includes commercial, residential, and consumer loans which contribute significantly to this revenue stream. Non-interest income includes fees from services such as account maintenance, transaction fees, wealth management fees, and insurance commissions. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships with other financial institutions to enhance service offerings and increase customer engagement, further contributing to its earnings.

NBT Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth into 2024–2025 and solid profitability, supported by meaningful de-levering on the balance sheet. Offsetting this is notable cash-flow volatility (sharp 2025 free cash flow decline and weaker operating cash flow coverage), which raises earnings-quality risk.

Income Statement

Revenue growth accelerated meaningfully into 2024 and 2025 (annual revenue up from ~$491M in 2020 to ~$867M in 2025), and profitability remains solid with a ~19.5% net margin in 2025. However, profitability appears to have normalized versus the unusually high 2021–2022 levels (net margin ~31% in 2021 and ~28% in 2022), with lower operating margins in 2023–2025, suggesting some pressure on the earnings profile despite strong top-line momentum.

Balance Sheet

Leverage improved materially, with debt-to-equity declining from ~0.67 (2022) to ~0.17 (2025) alongside rising equity and asset growth (assets ~ $16.0B in 2025). Returns on equity are steady but not outstanding for the group (~8.9% in 2025 vs ~12–13% in 2021–2022), indicating a more moderate profitability level on a larger balance sheet.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is positive, and free cash flow roughly matches net income in 2025 (free cash flow to net income ~1.0). The main concern is volatility: free cash flow fell sharply in 2025 (growth ~-49%), and cash flow support relative to earnings weakened versus prior years (operating cash flow coverage ~0.71 in 2025), pointing to less consistent conversion of earnings into cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	867.43M	785.99M	662.35M	537.00M	494.75M
Gross Profit	625.73M	554.83M	492.50M	497.97M	484.22M
EBITDA	241.03M	206.95M	175.73M	215.22M	219.74M
Net Income	169.24M	140.64M	118.78M	152.00M	154.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.00B	13.79B	13.31B	11.74B	12.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.05B	420.42M	1.64B	1.72B	2.96B
Total Debt	327.42M	414.98M	637.39M	787.95M	311.48M
Total Liabilities	14.10B	12.26B	11.88B	10.57B	10.76B
Stockholders Equity	1.90B	1.53B	1.43B	1.17B	1.25B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	218.92M	176.82M	148.20M	176.21M	151.44M
Operating Cash Flow	105.39M	188.57M	157.46M	183.22M	159.19M
Investing Cash Flow	77.00K	-399.16M	-44.23M	-926.22M	-547.61M
Financing Cash Flow	-205.08M	289.46M	-105.39M	-328.73M	984.81M

NBT Bancorp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 42.78
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBTB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.78 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.75, below the 50-day MA of 43.58, and above the 200-day MA of 41.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NBTB.

NBT Bancorp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FBNC	75 Outperform	$2.41B	21.20	6.39%	1.69%	-5.72%	-3.86%
NBTB	68 Neutral	$2.23B	12.84	8.87%	3.33%	11.63%	5.58%
EFSC	68 Neutral	$2.12B	10.76	10.25%	2.20%	6.59%	9.36%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BANR	67 Neutral	$2.06B	10.44	10.28%	2.97%	6.98%	15.08%
CUBI	67 Neutral	$2.36B	11.14	11.34%	―	-0.37%	-20.30%
SYBT	66 Neutral	$1.91B	13.50	13.69%	1.88%	11.74%	26.27%

NBT Bancorp Corporate Events

NBT Bancorp Releases Updated Investor Presentation for Stakeholders

On February 10, 2026, NBT Bancorp Inc., the holding company for NBT Bank N.A., disclosed that it has prepared a new investor presentation for use by its executive management team in upcoming meetings with investors and analysts. The slide deck has been posted on the company’s website, signaling an effort to enhance transparency and communication with the investment community ahead of future engagements.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBTB) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NBT Bancorp stock, see the NBTB Stock Forecast page.

NBT Bancorp announces executive succession alongside strong results

On January 26, 2026, NBT Bancorp reported that net income for the fourth quarter of 2025 rose to $55.5 million, or $1.06 per diluted share, up from $36.0 million, or $0.76 per share, a year earlier, while full-year 2025 net income increased to $169.2 million, or $3.33 per diluted share, from $140.6 million, or $2.97 per share, in 2024. The bank’s 2025 performance was bolstered by its May 2, 2025 acquisition of Evans Bancorp, which added 200 employees, 18 branches, $1.67 billion in loans and $1.86 billion in deposits, driving double-digit growth in loans and deposits, record net revenues, and a reported return on average assets of 1.37% and tangible common equity returns above 17%, while maintaining stable asset quality and strong capital ratios. The company highlighted slight quarterly net interest margin compression due to Federal Reserve rate cuts late in 2025, but benefited from lower funding costs, ongoing organic loan and deposit growth, and its thirteenth consecutive annual dividend increase, underscoring a strategy focused on profitable expansion and shareholder returns amid a changing rate environment. Separately, the company announced that Executive Vice President, Chief Credit Officer and Chief Risk Officer Amy C. Wiles, a member of the executive team since 2017, notified NBT on January 26, 2026 that she will step down from her role effective May 21, 2026 and move to an advisory position until her planned retirement in January 2027, with the company emphasizing that her transition does not stem from any disagreement with management or operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBTB) stock is a Buy with a $51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NBT Bancorp stock, see the NBTB Stock Forecast page.