NBT Bancorp (NBTB)
NASDAQ:NBTB
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NBT Bancorp
(NASDAQ:NBTB)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$50.00
▲(9.53% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:04/24/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (revenue growth and de-levering) tempered by cash-flow volatility. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD. The earnings call adds confidence via improving NIM/income and fee growth, while valuation is only moderately supportive due to an attractive dividend but an unusable provided P/E value.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet Deleveraging
Material deleveraging and rising equity provide durable capital flexibility. Lower leverage reduces financial risk, supports sustained dividend and buyback programs, and increases capacity for targeted M&A or higher reserves during stress, improving long-term franchise resilience.
Negative Factors
Cash-flow volatility
Marked free cash flow volatility and weaker operating cash coverage weaken quality of earnings and constrain internal funding. Over time this can force reliance on securities runoff or external capital for dividends, buybacks or loan growth, reducing predictable capital deployment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance-sheet Deleveraging
Material deleveraging and rising equity provide durable capital flexibility. Lower leverage reduces financial risk, supports sustained dividend and buyback programs, and increases capacity for targeted M&A or higher reserves during stress, improving long-term franchise resilience.
Read all positive factors
NBT Bancorp (NBTB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.36B
Dividend Yield3.33%
Average Volume (3M)188.66K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth11.63%
EPS Growth5.58%
CountryUS
Employees2,083
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.97
Shares Outstanding52,009,647
10 Day Avg. Volume197,356
30 Day Avg. Volume188,656
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.96
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio8.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.63
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.58
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.85
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$50.33Price Target Upside10.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)4.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$763.04M
NBT Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services. Its deposit products include demand deposit, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, money market deposit, and certificate...
How the Company Makes Money
NBT Bancorp primarily makes money through (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income.
1) Net interest income (core banking spread):
- The largest driver for most community banks is the spread between interest earned on loans and securitie...
NBT Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 23, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a net positive tone: year-over-year earnings, tangible book value, net interest income and margin all showed meaningful improvement, fee income growth reached an all-time high in retirement plan services, deposits strengthened and capital flexibility allowed for buybacks and M&A optionality. Offsetting items included quarter-to-quarter loan decline driven by planned runoff and elevated commercial payoffs, an increase in provisions and some localized asset-quality deterioration (a specific C&I and several CRE credits), modest quarter-over-quarter earnings seasonality, and competitive pressure in indirect auto. Overall the company appears well-capitalized and positioned to support market opportunities while managing tactical headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings and Profitability Improvement
Net income of $51.1 million ($0.98 diluted EPS) in Q1 2026, representing a 27% increase versus Q1 2025. Operating return on assets (ROA) was 1.29% and return on tangible equity (ROTCE) was 15.50%, both reflecting meaningful year-over-year improvement.
Negative Updates
Loan Balances Declined Quarter-over-Quarter
Total loans were $11.5 billion, down $50.9 million from December 31, 2025. Approximately half of the decline was planned runoff in other consumer and residential solar portfolios (~$25 million). Elevated commercial payoffs contributed to the remainder of the decline.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings and Profitability Improvement
Net income of $51.1 million ($0.98 diluted EPS) in Q1 2026, representing a 27% increase versus Q1 2025. Operating return on assets (ROA) was 1.29% and return on tangible equity (ROTCE) was 15.50%, both reflecting meaningful year-over-year improvement.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance emphasized stable operating expense and capital priorities: Q1 operating expenses ran about $112 million and are expected to track roughly at that level in Q2 with full‑year operating expense growth of about 3–4% (annual merit increases ~3.3%); loan growth is expected to reaccelerate to low- to mid-single digits for 2026. They see net interest margin at 3.72% (up 7 bps q/q, +28 bps YoY) with loan yields of 5.66% (down 4 bps q/q), deposit cost at 1.34% (down 10 bps q/q) and modest potential for a few basis points of NIM improvement depending on the yield curve; net interest income was $134.3M and net income $51.1M ($0.98/share) in Q1. Other financial cadence items: securities cash flows ~$20–25M/month, loan accretion ~$6–6.5M/quarter (intangible amortization ~$3.5M/quarter), planned residential solar runoff ~ $100M/year (~$25M/quarter), provision $5.6M in Q1, reserves 1.2% of loans covering >2x NPLs, and continued focus on organic growth, annual dividend growth and opportunistic buybacks (250,000 shares repurchased in Q1).NBT Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 867.43M | 785.99M | 662.35M | 537.00M | 494.75M |
| Gross Profit | 625.73M | 554.83M | 492.50M | 497.97M | 484.22M |
| EBITDA | 241.03M | 206.95M | 175.73M | 215.22M | 219.74M |
| Net Income | 169.24M | 140.64M | 118.78M | 152.00M | 154.88M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 16.00B | 13.79B | 13.31B | 11.74B | 12.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 185.16M | 420.42M | 1.64B | 1.72B | 2.96B |
| Total Debt | 327.42M | 414.98M | 637.39M | 787.95M | 311.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 14.10B | 12.26B | 11.88B | 10.57B | 10.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.90B | 1.53B | 1.43B | 1.17B | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 218.92M | 176.82M | 148.20M | 176.21M | 151.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 235.22M | 188.57M | 157.46M | 183.22M | 159.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 169.07M | -399.16M | -44.23M | -926.22M | -547.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -201.23M | 289.46M | -105.39M | -328.73M | 984.81M |
NBT Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
45.65
Price Trends
43.44
Positive
43.06
Positive
42.15
Positive
Market Momentum
0.76
Negative
65.14
Neutral
66.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBTB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 45.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 43.58, above the 50-day MA of 43.44, and above the 200-day MA of 42.15, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBTB.
NBT Bancorp Risk Analysis
NBT Bancorp disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NBT Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NBT Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.30B | 9.44 | 10.66% | 2.97% | 6.98% | 15.08% | |
72 Outperform | $2.36B | ― | 9.06% | 3.33% | 11.63% | 5.58% | |
72 Outperform | $2.61B | ― | 11.25% | ― | -0.37% | -20.30% | |
71 Outperform | $2.11B | 9.91 | 10.31% | 2.20% | 6.59% | 9.36% | |
70 Outperform | $2.47B | 12.48 | 7.03% | 1.69% | -5.72% | -3.86% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | $2.08B | 13.31 | 13.63% | 1.88% | 11.74% | 26.27% |
* Financial Sector Average
NBTB
NBT Bancorp
45.29
4.12
10.01%
BANR
Banner
67.76
8.16
13.70%
EFSC
Enterprise Financial Services
57.68
7.49
14.93%
FBNC
First Bancorp
59.55
20.22
51.41%
SYBT
Stock Yards Bancorp
70.44
-2.89
-3.95%
CUBI
Customers Bancorp
77.47
28.62
58.59%
NBT Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
NBT Bancorp Releases Updated Investor Presentation for Stakeholders
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, NBT Bancorp Inc., the holding company for NBT Bank N.A., disclosed that it has prepared a new investor presentation for use by its executive management team in upcoming meetings with investors and analysts. The slide deck has...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
NBT Bancorp announces executive succession alongside strong results
Positive
Jan 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, NBT Bancorp reported that net income for the fourth quarter of 2025 rose to $55.5 million, or $1.06 per diluted share, up from $36.0 million, or $0.76 per share, a year earlier, while full-year 2025 net income increased to $16...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.