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NBT Bancorp (NBTB)
NASDAQ:NBTB
US Market

NBT Bancorp (NBTB) AI Stock Analysis

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NBT Bancorp

(NASDAQ:NBTB)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(8.20%Upside)
NBT Bancorp's strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment are significant contributors to its overall score. The company's attractive dividend yield further supports its valuation. Despite mixed technical indicators, the financial stability and strategic growth initiatives like the Evans Bancorp merger position it well for future growth.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Upgrading NBTB to Overweight from Equal-Weight due to strong fundamentals, including a low-cost deposit base and diversified revenue composition.
Growth Opportunities
Investments in semiconductor chip manufacturing plants in Upstate NY provide a favorable growth backdrop for NBTB.
Profitability
Forecasts indicate a high projected profitability with a ~1.40% ROA in 2026, among the highest on the coverage list.
Negative Factors
Valuation Concerns
The bank's high-quality deposit book is highlighted by an all-in cost of 2.02%, contributing to its premium multiple valuation.

NBT Bancorp (NBTB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

NBT Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services. Its deposit products include demand deposit, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts. The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, agricultural, and commercial construction loans; indirect and direct consumer, home equity, mortgages, business banking loans, and commercial loans; and residential real estate loans. It also provides trust and investment services; financial planning and life insurance services; and retirement plan consulting and recordkeeping services. In addition, the company offers insurance products comprising personal property and casualty, business liability, and commercial insurance, as well as other products and services through 24-hour online, mobile, and telephone channels that enable customers to check balances, make deposits, transfer funds, pay bills, access statements, apply for loans, and access various other products and services. As of December 31, 2021, it had 140 branches and 164 ATMs in New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine. NBT Bancorp Inc. was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Norwich, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyNBT Bancorp makes money through various revenue streams associated with traditional banking activities. The primary sources of revenue include interest income generated from loans and mortgages, fees from deposit accounts, and other banking services. The company also earns money through non-interest income, which includes service charges, fees from investment management services, and transaction-based services. Additionally, NBT Bancorp leverages partnerships with financial technology companies to enhance its service offerings, contributing to its earnings. The company's profitability is influenced by interest rate fluctuations, economic conditions, and regulatory factors impacting the banking industry.

NBT Bancorp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 3.38%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook with improvements in net interest margin, tangible book value, and non-interest income growth. However, there were concerns about a commercial real estate loan write-down and potential delays in CHIPS Act-related projects. The successful integration with Evans Bancorp is seen as a significant positive development.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Improved Net Interest Margin
The net interest margin increased by ten basis points to 3.44% from the linked fourth quarter, primarily driven by the decrease in the cost of interest-bearing deposits.
Record Tangible Book Value Per Share
Tangible book value per share of $24.74 as of March 31st was up $0.86 per share from the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, marking another all-time high for NBT.
Strong Non-Interest Income Growth
Non-interest income made up 31% of total revenues for the quarter, with fee income at $47.6 million, an increase of 12.7% compared to the linked fourth quarter.
Successful Integration Progress with Evans Bancorp
The merger with Evans Bancorp is on track, with the core systems conversion set to complete next weekend. This will add over 200 Evans employees and more than 40,000 customers to NBT.
Increased Revenues
Revenues were up 4.4% from the prior quarter and almost 12% from the first quarter of the prior year, driven by improvements in both net interest income and fee-based revenues.
Negative Updates
Commercial Real Estate Loan Write-Down
Included in the net charge-offs was a $2.1 million write-down of a commercial real estate loan in a non-performing status, charged down to its updated estimated fair value.
Lower Loan Growth Expectations
Loan growth expectations have been adjusted from a three to five percent growth rate to two to three percent due to macroeconomic uncertainties and a slow start in the first quarter.
Potential Delays in CHIPS Act Projects
Questions about the timing and commitment of the CHIPS Act funding could impact the start dates for projects like Micron's planned complex outside of Syracuse.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, NBT Bancorp Inc. reported notable financial metrics, reflecting a solid operating performance. The operating return on assets was 1.11%, and the return on equity stood at 10%, with a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of 14%, illustrating positive operating leverage. The net interest margin improved for the fourth consecutive quarter, rising by ten basis points to 3.44%, primarily due to reduced costs of interest-bearing deposits. Non-interest income contributed significantly, accounting for 31% of total revenues, with a 12.7% increase in fee income compared to the previous quarter. NBT also reported net income of $36.7 million, or $0.77 per share, with operating earnings per share at $0.80, marking a $0.03 increase from the prior quarter. The tangible book value per share reached an all-time high of $24.74. Total deposits increased by $162 million to $11.7 billion, benefiting from seasonal municipal deposits, while the loan portfolio saw a growth of $40 million. The company continued its strategic expansion with the upcoming merger of Evans Bancorp, adding to its market presence in upstate New York.

NBT Bancorp Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NBT Bancorp exhibits strong financial health with impressive revenue growth and profitability metrics, supported by a solid balance sheet with decreasing leverage. Cash flows are stable, but there is room for improvement in capital expenditure efficiency. This positions the company well in the competitive banking sector, with a prudent approach to growth and risk management.
Income Statement
78
Positive
NBT Bancorp has shown a consistent growth trajectory in revenue over the years. The revenue grew from $490.37M in 2023 to $611.67M in 2024, reflecting a healthy growth rate. Gross profit margin remains robust at 100% due to the banking nature of the business. The net profit margin improved from 24.23% in 2023 to 22.99% in 2024, indicating efficient cost management despite a slight decrease. The EBIT margin has significantly increased, showcasing operational efficiency enhancements.
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
The balance sheet of NBT Bancorp is strong with a favorable debt-to-equity ratio, decreasing from 0.38 in 2023 to 0.13 in 2024, indicating reduced leverage risk. The return on equity (ROE) is solid at 9.21% in 2024, although slightly lower than 2023's 8.33%, reflecting effective use of equity. The equity ratio has slightly decreased, indicating a balanced approach between debt and equity financing.
Cash Flow
74
Positive
The cash flow statements of NBT Bancorp show a stable free cash flow with a slight increase from $148.20M in 2023 to $188.57M in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong, indicating the company's ability to generate cash relative to its net income. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been modest, suggesting limited efficiency improvements in capital expenditures.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue795.41M785.99M662.35M537.00M494.75M491.26M
Gross Profit566.86M554.83M492.50M497.97M484.22M407.52M
EBITDA211.10M206.95M175.73M215.22M219.74M153.64M
Net Income143.56M140.64M118.78M152.00M154.88M104.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.86B13.79B13.31B11.74B12.01B10.93B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments438.79M420.42M1.64B1.72B2.96B2.02B
Total Debt312.98M414.98M637.39M787.95M311.48M406.73M
Total Liabilities12.30B12.26B11.88B10.57B10.76B9.75B
Stockholders Equity1.57B1.53B1.43B1.17B1.25B1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow180.81M176.82M148.20M176.21M151.44M137.12M
Operating Cash Flow193.82M188.57M157.46M183.22M159.19M145.27M
Investing Cash Flow-499.19M-399.16M-44.23M-926.22M-547.61M-712.59M
Financing Cash Flow240.36M289.46M-105.39M-328.73M984.81M1.02B

NBT Bancorp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price43.44
Price Trends
50DMA
42.01
Positive
100DMA
42.69
Positive
200DMA
44.50
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.12
Negative
RSI
62.69
Neutral
STOCH
87.23
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBTB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.37, above the 50-day MA of 42.01, and below the 200-day MA of 44.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.23 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBTB.

NBT Bancorp Risk Analysis

NBT Bancorp disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NBT Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

NBT Bancorp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$2.27B14.369.55%3.13%12.11%16.58%
FBFBK
74
Outperform
$2.53B17.298.27%1.62%2.70%14.32%
72
Outperform
$2.20B14.794.94%5.83%23.09%1086.91%
72
Outperform
$2.45B20.0613.18%1.52%14.30%16.24%
HTHTH
71
Outperform
$2.03B16.055.89%2.28%0.59%14.96%
70
Neutral
$2.31B353.993.28%2.52%-17.96%-95.37%
67
Neutral
¥712.50B10.837.42%3.37%7.74%16.12%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NBTB
NBT Bancorp
43.87
7.20
19.63%
HTH
Hilltop Holdings
31.91
2.55
8.69%
PPBI
Pacific Premier Bancorp
23.10
2.29
11.00%
SYBT
Stock Yards Bancorp
83.01
35.35
74.17%
TRMK
Trustmark
38.59
9.99
34.93%
FBK
FB Financial
47.53
10.07
26.88%

NBT Bancorp Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsDividends
NBT Bancorp Appoints New Board Members and Directors
Neutral
May 20, 2025

On May 20, 2025, NBT Bancorp Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where David J. Nasca was appointed to the Board of Directors of both NBT Bancorp and NBT Bank. Additionally, the meeting saw the election of directors, approval of executive compensation, and ratification of KPMG as the independent accounting firm for 2025. The Board also declared a second-quarter cash dividend of $0.34 per share, payable on June 16, 2025. Heidi M. Hoeller was appointed as Chair of the Audit Committee, and Matthew J. Salanger was appointed as Lead Director following the retirements of Lowell A. Seifter and Jack H. Webb, respectively.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBTB) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NBT Bancorp stock, see the NBTB Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NBT Bancorp to Present at 2025 Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 19, 2025

On May 20, 2025, NBT Bancorp Inc. will present at its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, with presentation slides available on their website. This event could impact the company’s operations and industry positioning, providing stakeholders with insights into future strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBTB) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NBT Bancorp stock, see the NBTB Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
NBT Bancorp Updates Investor Presentation Strategy
Neutral
May 14, 2025

On May 14, 2025, NBT Bancorp Inc. announced that its executive management team will use a new presentation in future meetings with investors and analysts. The presentation slides are accessible on the company’s website, potentially impacting investor relations and market communication strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (NBTB) stock is a Buy with a $53.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NBT Bancorp stock, see the NBTB Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025