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Hilltop Holdings
(NYSE:HTH)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$40.00
â–²(5.49% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/24/26
HTH scores as a mid-range opportunity: financial performance is held back primarily by negative TTM operating/free cash flow and a meaningful revenue decline, despite acceptable profitability and leverage. The latest earnings call is a key positive, highlighting improved NIM/NII, upgraded loan growth outlook, strong capital, and increased dividends/buybacks. Technical signals are neutral and valuation is reasonable (P/E ~14, ~2% yield), providing some support but not enough to fully offset the cash-flow and deposit/credit uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Strong capitalization
A CET1 ratio of 18.3% and rising tangible book provide a durable capital cushion to absorb credit stress, support continued lending, and fund shareholder returns. This level of capital increases resilience through credit cycles and preserves strategic optionality for M&A or buybacks over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative operating cash flow
A sustained swing to negative operating and free cash flow reduces financial flexibility, increasing reliance on external funding or balance-sheet adjustments. Over several quarters this can constrain capital deployment, make buybacks/dividends harder to sustain, and limit cushion against credit deterioration.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong capitalization
A CET1 ratio of 18.3% and rising tangible book provide a durable capital cushion to absorb credit stress, support continued lending, and fund shareholder returns. This level of capital increases resilience through credit cycles and preserves strategic optionality for M&A or buybacks over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Hilltop Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Shows the pre-tax profit contribution from each unit of the business, highlighting which segments drive earnings and which drag them down. Helps investors see whether Hilltop’s results come from diversified, steady operations or are concentrated in a few areas, and flags segments that may face operational, credit, or competitive stress. Persistent declines in pre-tax income for a major segment can be an early warning of trouble for overall profitability.
Shows the pre-tax profit contribution from each unit of the business, highlighting which segments drive earnings and which drag them down. Helps investors see whether Hilltop’s results come from diversified, steady operations or are concentrated in a few areas, and flags segments that may face operational, credit, or competitive stress. Persistent declines in pre-tax income for a major segment can be an early warning of trouble for overall profitability.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyHilltop Holdings (HTH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.23B
Dividend Yield2%
Average Volume (3M)351.11K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.1
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth4.27%
EPS Growth33.70%
CountryUS
Employees3,520
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.64
Shares Outstanding58,530,197
10 Day Avg. Volume282,467
30 Day Avg. Volume351,105
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)0.98
Price to Sales (P/S)1.31
P/FCF Ratio-22.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$39.50Price Target Upside4.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.25B
Hilltop Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hilltop Holdings Inc., a Dallas, Texas-based entity established in 1998, delivers a comprehensive suite of financial products and services, catering to both corporate and individual clients. Its operations are structured into three primary divisio...
How the Company Makes Money
Hilltop Holdings makes money primarily through its banking operations and related fee-based financial services. The largest earnings engine is PlainsCapital Bank, which generates revenue from (1) net interest income—the spread between interest ear...
Hilltop Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a generally constructive operational and capital story: solid consolidated profitability, continued loan growth with an upgraded loan growth outlook, margin expansion, and strong broker-dealer revenue performance (notably in structured finance) alongside healthy capital ratios and enhanced shareholder returns. Offsetting these positives are persistent mortgage-market challenges (PrimeLending loss, compressed gain-on-sale margins), deposit base pressures and increased competition, ACL volatility driven by specific credit deterioration, and modest expense increases tied to variable compensation. Overall, the positives (loan growth, margin improvements, broker-dealer momentum, strong capital and buybacks/dividend increase) slightly outweigh the negatives, though management highlighted ongoing macro and rate uncertainty.Positive Updates
Consolidated Profitability
Net income of $36.5 million, or $0.63 per diluted share; return on average assets 1.0% and return on average equity 6.9% for Q2 2026.
Negative Updates
PrimeLending Loss and Mortgage Headwinds
PrimeLending reported a pretax loss of $2 million as the mortgage market experienced a muted start to the summer buying season. Headwinds include elevated interest rates, higher property taxes and insurance, tight inventory, and an all-time low share of first-time homebuyers, keeping volumes and gain-on-sale margins under pressure.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Profitability
Net income of $36.5 million, or $0.63 per diluted share; return on average assets 1.0% and return on average equity 6.9% for Q2 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to modestly mixed near‑term results under a base macro scenario that assumes one Fed rate hike in December 2026: net interest margin is expected to moderate and potentially decline modestly in H2 while net interest income should remain relatively stable; full‑year average loan growth was raised to 5.0%–7.0% (excluding mortgage warehouse lending and mortgages retained from PrimeLending); broker‑dealer fee guidance is roughly -3% to +1%; normalized loan‑to‑deposit levels are viewed around 80%–90% (closer to 85%); and management reiterated capital flexibility with a CET1 ratio of 18.3%, tangible book value per share of $32.36, a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.22, $11.6 million returned to shareholders in the quarter, $47 million of buybacks in Q2 and a $75 million increase in the repurchase authorization (bringing 2026 authorization to ~$200 million). Key quarter metrics informing the outlook included consolidated NII of $116 million (+5% YoY), consolidated NIM 3.21% (PlainsCapital NIM 3.42%), consolidated ROA 1.0% and ROE 6.9%, average deposits ~$10.4 billion (down $263 million YoY) with interest‑bearing deposit cost 3.27% and a 75% β, ACL of $85 million (bank ACL coverage 1.03%) after a $1 million provision release and $3.2 million of net charge‑offs (16 bps), noninterest income $200 million, noninterest expense $267 million (+2% YoY), Hilltop Securities net revenue $124 million with $12 million pretax income (10% pretax margin), and notable segment trends such as structured finance +73% net revenue and mortgage gain‑on‑sale margins at 217 bps (down 6 bps).Hilltop Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.59B | 1.63B | 1.54B | 1.50B | 1.35B | 1.85B |
| Gross Profit | 1.26B | 1.27B | 1.12B | 1.11B | 1.21B | 1.80B |
| EBITDA | 226.76M | 236.77M | 174.21M | 168.75M | 188.75M | 528.70M |
| Net Income | 161.31M | 165.59M | 113.21M | 109.65M | 113.13M | 374.50M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.70B | 15.84B | 16.27B | 16.47B | 16.27B | 18.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.88B | 3.19B | 3.70B | 3.37B | 3.24B | 4.95B |
| Total Debt | 1.31B | 926.75M | 1.35B | 1.39B | 1.50B | 1.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.53B | 13.65B | 14.05B | 14.32B | 14.20B | 16.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.14B | 2.17B | 2.19B | 2.12B | 2.05B | 2.52B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -146.75M | -95.10M | 266.80M | 434.54M | 1.18B | 740.87M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -124.08M | -78.26M | 273.93M | 443.02M | 1.19B | 765.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -513.14M | -325.28M | 354.22M | 158.34M | -877.30M | -553.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -261.98M | -714.24M | -174.31M | -332.51M | -1.71B | 1.48B |
Hilltop Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
37.92
Price Trends
37.93
Positive
37.23
Positive
35.90
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
46.23
Neutral
24.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.62, below the 50-day MA of 37.93, and above the 200-day MA of 35.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HTH.
Hilltop Holdings Risk Analysis
Hilltop Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hilltop Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hilltop Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $2.37B | 11.31 | 10.66% | 2.97% | 2.88% | 15.51% | |
79 Outperform | $2.69B | 14.42 | 9.83% | 3.33% | 17.46% | 16.00% | |
77 Outperform | $2.40B | 12.83 | 10.08% | 2.20% | 7.89% | -4.69% | |
77 Outperform | $2.50B | 11.55 | 8.84% | 4.11% | 62.15% | 107.42% | |
75 Outperform | $2.37B | 16.48 | 13.58% | 1.88% | 9.58% | 17.44% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
59 Neutral | $2.23B | 14.05 | 7.42% | 2.08% | 4.27% | 33.70% |
* Financial Sector Average
HTH
Hilltop Holdings
37.94
8.00
26.72%
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68.85
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12.01%
EFSC
Enterprise Financial Services
65.04
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18.33%
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29.56
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NBTB
NBT Bancorp
51.32
11.16
27.79%
SYBT
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80.59
2.64
3.38%
Hilltop Holdings Corporate Events
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Hilltop Holdings Boosts Dividend and Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
Hilltop Holdings reported second-quarter 2026 income attributable to common stockholders of $36.5 million, or $0.63 per diluted share, up slightly from $36.1 million, or $0.57 per diluted share, a year earlier, supported by higher noninterest inco...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Hilltop Holdings Posts Higher Q2 Earnings, Boosts Capital Returns
Positive
Jul 23, 2026
For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Hilltop Holdings reported total revenue of $315.8 million, up 5% year over year, with net income attributable to Hilltop inching to $36.5 million and diluted EPS rising 11% to $0.63. Return on average assets st...
Executive/Board Changes
Hilltop Holdings Adds Veteran Independent Directors to Board
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 23, 2026, Hilltop Holdings Inc. appointed veteran financial executives Dana Bober and Stephen Haworth to its board of directors as independent directors, expanding governance expertise drawn from long tenures at Ernst Young and private e...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.