Hilltop Holdings (HTH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.13B
• Dividend Yield: 2.07%
• Average Volume (3M): 395.35K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: 5.21%
• EPS Growth: 53.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,616
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.74
• Shares Outstanding: 61,328,537
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 487,428
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 395,345
• PEG Ratio: 5.56
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.85
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.21
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.98
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.47
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.65
• 1Y Price Target: $35.00
• Price Target Upside: 0.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.81
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.21B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $38.00 ▲(9.51% Upside)

Hilltop Holdings demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and profitability improvements. The technical indicators support a bullish trend, and the valuation is reasonable. Positive earnings call highlights and strategic corporate events further enhance the stock's outlook, despite challenges in cash flow conversion and specific market segments.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The robust revenue growth indicates a strong recovery and expanding market presence, which can lead to sustained business expansion and profitability.

Capital Structure

A lower debt-to-equity ratio reflects reduced leverage, enhancing financial stability and flexibility, which is crucial for long-term growth and risk management.

Shareholder Returns

Consistent shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks demonstrate strong cash generation and a commitment to enhancing shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Significant decline in free cash flow indicates potential difficulties in converting earnings into cash, which could impact future investments and financial stability.

Mortgage Market Pressure

Continued pressure in the mortgage market affects PrimeLending's performance, posing a risk to revenue streams and profitability in this segment.

Operational Efficiency

Lower operational efficiency as indicated by EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests room for improvement in cost management and profitability.

Hilltop Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hilltop Holdings Inc. provides business and consumer banking, and financial products and services. It operates through three segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination. The Banking segment offers savings, checking, interest-bearing checking, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; lines and letters of credit, home improvement and equity loans, loans for purchasing and carrying securities, equipment loans and leases, agricultural and commercial real estate loans, and other loans; and commercial and industrial loans, and term and construction finance. This segment also provides treasury management, wealth management, asset management, check cards, safe deposit boxes, online banking, bill pay, trust, and overdraft services; and estate planning, management and administration, investment portfolio management, employee benefit accounts, and individual retirement accounts, as well as automated teller machines. The Broker-Dealer segment offers public finance services that assist public entities in originating, syndicating, and distributing securities of municipalities and political subdivisions; specialized advisory and investment banking services; advice and guidance to arbitrage rebate compliance, portfolio management, and local government investment pool administration; structured finance services, which include advisory services for derivatives and commodities; sells, trades in, and underwrites U.S. government and government agency bonds, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds, as well as mortgage-backed, asset-backed, and commercial mortgage-backed securities and structured products. This segment also provides asset and liability management advisory, clearing, retail, and securities lending services. The Mortgage Origination segment offers mortgage, jumbo, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Affairs, and United States Department of Agriculture loans. Hilltop Holdings Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Hilltop Holdings generates revenue through several key streams. Its commercial banking segment earns money primarily from interest income on loans and fees associated with various banking services. The mortgage banking division contributes significantly through origination fees, servicing fees, and gains on mortgage sales. Additionally, the insurance segment generates revenue through premiums collected from policyholders and investment income from the management of policyholder funds. Strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and real estate companies enhance Hilltop's market presence and provide additional revenue opportunities. The company also benefits from a diversified portfolio, which helps mitigate risks and stabilize earnings across different market conditions.

Hilltop Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Hilltop Holdings shows a mixed financial performance. Despite challenges in revenue growth, the company maintains strong profitability margins and a stable financial position with moderate leverage. Robust cash generation enhances liquidity and operational resilience.

Income Statement

Hilltop Holdings has shown a decline in revenue growth with a negative rate of -68.3% in the TTM period, indicating potential challenges in maintaining its revenue base. However, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 75.53% and a decent net profit margin of 9.28%, suggesting efficient cost management and profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 12.54% and 13.81%, respectively, reflecting operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.45 in the TTM period indicates a moderate level of leverage, which is a positive sign of financial stability. The return on equity (ROE) stands at 6.54%, showing a reasonable return on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the company's equity position appears stable relative to its total assets.

Cash Flow

Hilltop Holdings has demonstrated a significant improvement in free cash flow growth at 99.64% in the TTM period, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.56 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.99 suggest effective conversion of income into cash, supporting liquidity and operational flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.55B	1.54B	1.50B	1.35B	1.85B	2.16B
Gross Profit	1.19B	1.12B	1.11B	1.21B	1.80B	1.94B
EBITDA	229.67M	174.21M	168.75M	188.75M	528.70M	586.28M
Net Income	159.53M	113.21M	109.65M	113.13M	374.50M	447.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.61B	16.27B	16.47B	16.27B	18.69B	16.94B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.60B	3.70B	3.37B	3.24B	4.95B	2.52B
Total Debt	998.76M	1.35B	1.39B	1.50B	1.47B	1.35B
Total Liabilities	13.39B	14.05B	14.32B	14.20B	16.14B	14.59B
Stockholders Equity	2.19B	2.19B	2.12B	2.05B	2.52B	2.32B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	163.37M	266.80M	434.54M	1.18B	740.87M	242.69M
Operating Cash Flow	167.01M	273.93M	443.02M	1.19B	765.62M	280.44M
Investing Cash Flow	-221.84M	354.22M	158.34M	-877.30M	-553.27M	-827.67M
Financing Cash Flow	-683.09M	-174.31M	-332.51M	-1.71B	1.48B	1.26B

Hilltop Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 34.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.68, above the 50-day MA of 33.45, and above the 200-day MA of 31.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HTH.

Hilltop Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BANR	79 Outperform	$2.26B	12.07	10.28%	2.93%	6.98%	15.08%
NBTB	74 Outperform	$2.28B	14.45	8.87%	3.26%	11.63%	5.58%
BUSE	72 Outperform	$2.21B	21.87	5.33%	4.00%	41.45%	-41.16%
HTH	71 Outperform	$2.13B	13.87	7.31%	2.07%	5.21%	53.15%
EFSC	70 Neutral	$2.06B	10.86	10.25%	2.19%	6.59%	9.36%
SYBT	69 Neutral	$1.99B	14.70	13.69%	1.87%	11.74%	26.27%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Hilltop Holdings Corporate Events

Hilltop Holdings Amends Employment Agreement with Furr

On December 8, 2025, Hilltop Holdings announced a Third Amendment to the Employment Agreement with William B. Furr, effective August 30, 2025. The amendment extends Furr’s employment term to August 31, 2028, adjusts bonus provisions in the event of death or disability, expands non-interference/solicit provisions, removes the non-competition clause, and eliminates outdated provisions.

Hilltop Holdings Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

Hilltop Holdings Inc. announced its financial results for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a significant increase in income to common stockholders, reaching $45.8 million compared to $29.7 million in the same period of 2024. This growth was driven by increases in the reversal of credit losses and net interest income, as well as a decrease in noninterest expense within the banking segment. Additionally, the company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per common share and expanded its stock repurchase program by $50 million, bringing the total to $185 million, with $62 million remaining available for repurchase. These strategic financial maneuvers reflect Hilltop’s ongoing efforts to enhance shareholder value and adapt to market conditions.