Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)
NYSE:HTH
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Hilltop Holdings
(NYSE:HTH)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$38.00
â–²(0.93% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/14/26
The score is primarily held back by weak 2025 cash flow (negative operating and free cash flow), despite improving profitability and a stronger leverage profile. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, and valuation looks reasonable. The latest earnings call adds a positive tilt due to strong capital returns and improving banking metrics, tempered by credit-cost and mortgage-business headwinds.
Positive Factors
Diversified revenue mix; strong Hilltop Securities
A balanced business mix across banking, mortgage origination and a high‑margin broker‑dealer reduces dependence on any single cycle. Hilltop Securities' scale and double‑digit pretax margins provide durable fee and trading income that helps stabilize consolidated earnings through rate and housing cycles.
Negative Factors
Negative operating and free cash flow in 2025
The abrupt swing to negative operating and free cash flow in 2025 represents a material quality‑of‑earnings concern. Reduced cash conversion can limit reinvestment, constrain liquidity buffers and make capital returns or balance sheet repair harder if weak cash trends persist beyond the near term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified revenue mix; strong Hilltop Securities
A balanced business mix across banking, mortgage origination and a high‑margin broker‑dealer reduces dependence on any single cycle. Hilltop Securities' scale and double‑digit pretax margins provide durable fee and trading income that helps stabilize consolidated earnings through rate and housing cycles.
Read all positive factors
Hilltop Holdings (HTH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.24B
Dividend Yield2.08%
Average Volume (3M)368.52K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth5.21%
EPS Growth53.15%
CountryUS
Employees3,616
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.69
Shares Outstanding59,449,560
10 Day Avg. Volume303,374
30 Day Avg. Volume368,521
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)0.98
Price to Sales (P/S)1.31
P/FCF Ratio-22.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.90
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.57
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.57
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$37.50Price Target Upside-0.40% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.25B
Hilltop Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hilltop Holdings Inc. provides business and consumer banking, and financial products and services. It operates through three segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination. The Banking segment offers savings, checking, interest-bearing...
How the Company Makes Money
Hilltop Holdings makes money through three primary operating segments. (1) Banking (PlainsCapital Bank): generates revenue mainly from net interest income—the spread between interest earned on loans and securities and interest paid on deposits and...
Hilltop Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Hilltop Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 29, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a generally positive tone driven by strong full-year earnings growth (46% rise in net income), revenue expansion (8% increase), improved net interest margin, solid capital ratios, and meaningful returns of capital to shareholders. Business lines at Hilltop Securities and PlainsCapital Bank performed well, and loan pipelines and deposit-cost improvements support near-term growth. Primary negatives were concentrated: mortgage market headwinds limiting PrimeLending profitability, a pair of stressed auto credits that drove material Q4 charge-offs and elevated provisions, and modest expense pressure from variable compensation and severance. Overall, the positives (earnings growth, operating leverage, capital strength, and strategic execution) outweigh the company-specific credit and mortgage challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Earnings Growth
Consolidated income attributable to common stockholders for 2025 was $165.6 million, or $2.64 diluted EPS, representing a 46% increase versus the prior year.
Negative Updates
Q4 Provision and Auto-Note Charge-offs
Q4 included a $7.8 million provision for credit loss and $11.5 million of net charge-offs; $9.5 million of the Q4 charge-offs related to two stressed auto note credits, of which only $5.7 million had been previously reserved.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Earnings Growth
Consolidated income attributable to common stockholders for 2025 was $165.6 million, or $2.64 diluted EPS, representing a 46% increase versus the prior year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s 2026 guidance assumes a scenario with several Fed cuts (management referenced ~three cuts) and includes explicit metrics: full‑year average bank loan growth of 4–6% (excludes PrimeLending‑retained and warehouse loans); an interest‑bearing deposit beta currently at ~68% that management expects to drift toward 60–65% with 2–3 Fed cuts; modeled asset sensitivity of just over 4% (implying roughly $4–5 million of NII impact per 25 bps parallel rate move); Hilltop Securities pretax margins targeted in the low double‑digits to low teens (~10–14%); quarterly noninterest expenses ex‑variable compensation expected to be roughly $180–190 million; mortgage aggregate gross revenue expected to be stable around 350–360 basis points; interest‑bearing deposit cost anticipated to move lower from the recent 269 bps level; and the company entering 2026 with strong capital and capital return capacity (CET1 19.7%, tangible book $31.83, $125 million buyback authorization, and a $229 million return to shareholders in 2025) while acknowledging Q1 seasonality for PrimeLending and ongoing sensitivity of broker‑dealer fees and NII to rate path.Hilltop Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
38
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.63B | 1.54B | 1.50B | 1.35B | 1.85B |
| Gross Profit | 1.27B | 1.12B | 1.11B | 1.21B | 1.80B |
| EBITDA | 221.06M | 174.21M | 168.75M | 188.75M | 528.70M |
| Net Income | 165.59M | 113.21M | 109.65M | 113.13M | 374.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 15.84B | 16.27B | 16.47B | 16.27B | 18.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.19B | 3.70B | 3.37B | 3.24B | 4.95B |
| Total Debt | 926.75M | 1.35B | 1.39B | 1.50B | 1.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.65B | 14.05B | 14.32B | 14.20B | 16.14B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.17B | 2.19B | 2.12B | 2.05B | 2.52B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -95.10M | 266.80M | 434.54M | 1.18B | 740.87M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -78.26M | 273.93M | 443.02M | 1.19B | 765.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -325.28M | 354.22M | 158.34M | -877.30M | -553.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -714.24M | -174.31M | -332.51M | -1.71B | 1.48B |
Hilltop Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
37.65
Price Trends
37.10
Positive
35.82
Positive
33.98
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Negative
62.06
Neutral
85.12
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.75, above the 50-day MA of 37.10, and above the 200-day MA of 33.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HTH.
Hilltop Holdings Risk Analysis
Hilltop Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hilltop Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hilltop Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $2.30B | 15.68 | 5.33% | 4.11% | 41.45% | -41.16% | |
68 Neutral | $2.24B | 12.34 | 7.57% | 2.08% | 5.21% | 53.15% | |
68 Neutral | $2.36B | 11.56 | 9.51% | 3.33% | 11.63% | 5.58% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $2.18B | 10.97 | 10.28% | 2.97% | 6.98% | 15.08% | |
66 Neutral | $2.13B | 9.91 | 10.25% | 2.20% | 6.59% | 9.36% | |
66 Neutral | $2.10B | 13.61 | 13.69% | 1.88% | 11.74% | 26.27% |
* Financial Sector Average
HTH
Hilltop Holdings
37.65
9.85
35.46%
BANR
Banner
63.99
7.69
13.65%
EFSC
Enterprise Financial Services
57.87
12.03
26.25%
BUSE
First Busey
26.67
8.08
43.50%
NBTB
NBT Bancorp
45.16
7.64
20.37%
SYBT
Stock Yards Bancorp
71.20
7.48
11.74%
Hilltop Holdings Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Hilltop Holdings extends executive contract, CEO declines bonus
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Hilltop Holdings Inc. amended the employment agreement of Steve Thompson, extending its term from a prior expiration date of December 31, 2025 to a new end date of December 31, 2028, thereby signaling continuity in its senior ...
Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Hilltop Holdings Delivers Strong Results, Boosts Capital Returns
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Hilltop Holdings reported stronger fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with income attributable to common stockholders rising to $41.6 million, or $0.69 per diluted share, in the quarter and $165.6 million, or $2.64 per...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Hilltop Holdings posts strong Q4 2025 earnings and returns
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
Hilltop Holdings reported fourth-quarter 2025 results highlighted by solid profitability at its core banking and securities units and continued capital returns to shareholders. PlainsCapital Bank generated $43.5 million in pre-tax income as net in...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.