Hilltop Holdings (HTH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.29B
• Dividend Yield: 2.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 396.49K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.59
• Revenue Growth: 5.21%
• EPS Growth: 53.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,616
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.69
• Shares Outstanding: 59,449,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 368,348
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 396,486
• PEG Ratio: 0.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.31
• P/FCF Ratio: -22.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.69
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.21
• 1Y Price Target: $37.50
• Price Target Upside: -0.27% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.27B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $42.00 ▲(11.70% Upside)
• Action: Downgraded Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Downgraded 02/14/26

The score is primarily held back by weak 2025 cash flow (negative operating and free cash flow), despite improving profitability and a stronger leverage profile. Technicals are supportive with a clear uptrend and positive momentum, and valuation looks reasonable. The latest earnings call adds a positive tilt due to strong capital returns and improving banking metrics, tempered by credit-cost and mortgage-business headwinds.

Positive Factors

Strong capital and capital-return capacity

A CET1 ratio near 20% and tangible book growth provide a durable capital buffer that supports lending, loss absorption, and continued buybacks/dividends. This conservatively positioned capital base gives management flexibility to fund growth or absorb credit stress without immediate external financing.

Diversified business mix across banking, mortgage, securities

Meaningful revenue contributions from commercial banking, mortgage origination/servicing, and securities/wealth/public finance reduce single-source cyclicality. This diversification smooths income across cycles, enables cross-selling, and allows the firm to reallocate resources to higher-return units over a multi-quarter horizon.

Improving operating leverage and margins

Revenue growth outpacing expense growth and a recovered net interest margin indicate structural improvements in profitability. Sustained operating leverage increases retained earnings and internal capital generation, supporting long-term return-on-equity recovery and the ability to invest in growth or return capital.

Negative Factors

Negative operating and free cash flow in 2025

A swing to negative operating and free cash flow is a durable quality-of-earnings concern: it limits organic funding for loan growth, dividends, and buybacks, raises reliance on capital markets, and can force tougher trade-offs on capital allocation if cash generation does not recover.

Asset-quality stress from auto-note charge-offs

Concentrated losses in auto-note credits signal idiosyncratic asset-quality risk that can recur or require higher provisions. Persistent charge-offs would depress net income, force elevated ACLs, and constrain credit capacity, making loan growth harder to sustain without raising pricing or tightening underwriting.

Structural pressure on PrimeLending profitability

Industry-driven affordability, low inventory, and higher ownership costs create a sustained headwind for mortgage origination margins and volumes. Continued weakness would limit the mortgage unit's contribution, increasing earnings cyclicality and pressuring overall company profitability absent further efficiency gains.

Hilltop Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hilltop Holdings Inc. provides business and consumer banking, and financial products and services. It operates through three segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination. The Banking segment offers savings, checking, interest-bearing checking, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; lines and letters of credit, home improvement and equity loans, loans for purchasing and carrying securities, equipment loans and leases, agricultural and commercial real estate loans, and other loans; and commercial and industrial loans, and term and construction finance. This segment also provides treasury management, wealth management, asset management, check cards, safe deposit boxes, online banking, bill pay, trust, and overdraft services; and estate planning, management and administration, investment portfolio management, employee benefit accounts, and individual retirement accounts, as well as automated teller machines. The Broker-Dealer segment offers public finance services that assist public entities in originating, syndicating, and distributing securities of municipalities and political subdivisions; specialized advisory and investment banking services; advice and guidance to arbitrage rebate compliance, portfolio management, and local government investment pool administration; structured finance services, which include advisory services for derivatives and commodities; sells, trades in, and underwrites U.S. government and government agency bonds, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds, as well as mortgage-backed, asset-backed, and commercial mortgage-backed securities and structured products. This segment also provides asset and liability management advisory, clearing, retail, and securities lending services. The Mortgage Origination segment offers mortgage, jumbo, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Affairs, and United States Department of Agriculture loans. Hilltop Holdings Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Hilltop Holdings generates revenue through several key streams. Its commercial banking segment earns money primarily from interest income on loans and fees associated with various banking services. The mortgage banking division contributes significantly through origination fees, servicing fees, and gains on mortgage sales. Additionally, the insurance segment generates revenue through premiums collected from policyholders and investment income from the management of policyholder funds. Strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and real estate companies enhance Hilltop's market presence and provide additional revenue opportunities. The company also benefits from a diversified portfolio, which helps mitigate risks and stabilize earnings across different market conditions.

Hilltop Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends are improving (profitability and margins rebounded in 2025) and leverage looks better with lower debt-to-equity and recovering ROE. However, the 2025 swing to negative operating cash flow and free cash flow is a major quality-of-earnings risk that materially drags the financial score.

Income Statement

Revenue has been relatively stable with modest growth recently (up ~5% in 2025 vs. ~3% in 2024), but profitability is well below the peak levels seen in 2020–2021. Net margin improved in 2025 (~10%) versus 2023–2024 (~7%), yet it remains far under 2020–2021 (~20%). Operating profitability also rebounded in 2025, suggesting earnings recovery, but the multi-year compression in margins keeps the income statement from scoring higher.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable and improving: debt-to-equity declined to ~0.49 in 2025 from ~0.62–0.73 during 2022–2024, and total debt is lower than the last several years. Equity is relatively steady, supporting balance sheet resilience. Return on equity has recovered to ~7.6% in 2025 from ~5.2% in 2023–2024, but it is still meaningfully below 2020–2021 levels (~15–19%), indicating the balance sheet is solid but not currently generating peak returns.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened materially in 2025, with operating cash flow and free cash flow turning negative after multiple years of positive generation. This sharp swing (following strong 2022–2024 cash flows) raises questions about sustainability and near-term cash earnings quality. While prior years showed strong conversion of profits into free cash flow, the 2025 reversal is a clear red flag and weighs heavily on the cash flow score.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.63B	1.54B	1.50B	1.35B	1.85B
Gross Profit	1.27B	1.12B	1.11B	1.21B	1.80B
EBITDA	221.06M	174.21M	168.75M	188.75M	528.70M
Net Income	165.59M	113.21M	109.65M	113.13M	374.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.84B	16.27B	16.47B	16.27B	18.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.23B	3.70B	3.37B	3.24B	4.95B
Total Debt	1.06B	1.35B	1.39B	1.50B	1.47B
Total Liabilities	13.65B	14.05B	14.32B	14.20B	16.14B
Stockholders Equity	2.17B	2.19B	2.12B	2.05B	2.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-95.10M	266.80M	434.54M	1.18B	740.87M
Operating Cash Flow	-78.26M	273.93M	443.02M	1.19B	765.62M
Investing Cash Flow	-325.28M	354.22M	158.34M	-877.30M	-553.27M
Financing Cash Flow	-714.24M	-174.31M	-332.51M	-1.71B	1.48B

Hilltop Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 37.60
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 37.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.23, above the 50-day MA of 36.17, and above the 200-day MA of 32.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.72 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.29 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HTH.

Hilltop Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NBTB	77 Outperform	$2.35B	13.51	8.87%	3.33%	11.63%	5.58%
SYBT	74 Outperform	$2.03B	14.51	13.69%	1.88%	11.74%	26.27%
BANR	71 Outperform	$2.19B	11.39	10.28%	2.97%	6.98%	15.08%
BUSE	71 Outperform	$2.33B	17.90	5.33%	4.11%	41.45%	-41.16%
EFSC	70 Outperform	$2.26B	11.50	10.25%	2.20%	6.59%	9.36%
HTH	68 Neutral	$2.29B	14.61	7.60%	2.08%	5.21%	53.15%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Hilltop Holdings Corporate Events

Hilltop Holdings extends executive contract, CEO declines bonus

On February 2, 2026, Hilltop Holdings Inc. amended the employment agreement of Steve Thompson, extending its term from a prior expiration date of December 31, 2025 to a new end date of December 31, 2028, thereby signaling continuity in its senior leadership structure. In connection with the company’s 2025 fiscal year, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President Jeremy B. Ford notified the board’s Compensation Committee that he would decline his annual cash incentive bonus for 2025 following the voting results on the say-on-pay proposal at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, a move the board publicly acknowledged as a demonstration of his commitment to the company and its shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTH) stock is a Hold with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hilltop Holdings stock, see the HTH Stock Forecast page.

Hilltop Holdings Delivers Strong Results, Boosts Capital Returns

On January 29, 2026, Hilltop Holdings reported stronger fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with income attributable to common stockholders rising to $41.6 million, or $0.69 per diluted share, in the quarter and $165.6 million, or $2.64 per diluted share, for the year, both up from 2024 as improved performance across its banking, mortgage and securities units lifted returns, book value and noninterest income. The board also raised the quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.20 per share, payable on February 27, 2026, and authorized a new $125 million stock repurchase program through January 2027, extending an aggressive capital-return strategy that saw the company buy back $184 million of stock in 2025 alone, moves that underscore management’s confidence but come against a backdrop of rising credit-loss provisions and an uncertain macroeconomic outlook for 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTH) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hilltop Holdings stock, see the HTH Stock Forecast page.

Hilltop Holdings posts strong Q4 2025 earnings and returns

Hilltop Holdings reported fourth-quarter 2025 results highlighted by solid profitability at its core banking and securities units and continued capital returns to shareholders. PlainsCapital Bank generated $43.5 million in pre-tax income as net interest margin improved to 3.29% and both average loans and deposits grew from the prior quarter, even as the bank booked a $7.9 million provision for credit losses. HilltopSecurities contributed $25.5 million in pre-tax income on $138.4 million of net revenue, with an 18.4% pre-tax margin driven by stronger public finance and wealth management revenue, while PrimeLending posted a $5.2 million pre-tax loss despite lower non-interest expenses, improved gain-on-sale margins and higher mortgage origination volumes year over year. At the consolidated level, Hilltop’s Q4 2025 income attributable to the company rose 17% from a year earlier to $41.6 million, or $0.69 per diluted share, on 10% revenue growth and a 59% jump in pre-provision net revenue, even as credit costs increased; the group also continued to emphasize shareholder returns by distributing $71.8 million via dividends and share repurchases in the quarter, supporting growth in tangible book value per share and maintaining a strong common equity Tier 1 capital ratio.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTH) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hilltop Holdings stock, see the HTH Stock Forecast page.

Hilltop Holdings Amends Employment Agreement with Furr

On December 8, 2025, Hilltop Holdings announced a Third Amendment to the Employment Agreement with William B. Furr, effective August 30, 2025. The amendment extends Furr’s employment term to August 31, 2028, adjusts bonus provisions in the event of death or disability, expands non-interference/solicit provisions, removes the non-competition clause, and eliminates outdated provisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTH) stock is a Buy with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hilltop Holdings stock, see the HTH Stock Forecast page.