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Hilltop Holdings Inc (HTH)
NYSE:HTH

Hilltop Holdings (HTH) AI Stock Analysis

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Hilltop Holdings

(NYSE:HTH)

70Outperform
Hilltop Holdings' stock demonstrates a balanced outlook with strengths in cash flow and capital structure countered by operational inefficiencies and sector-specific challenges. The technical and valuation metrics support a stable, albeit cautious, investment stance.

Hilltop Holdings (HTH) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Hilltop Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) is a financial holding company headquartered in Dallas, Texas. The company operates primarily in banking, mortgage origination, and insurance sectors. Through its subsidiaries, Hilltop Holdings provides a range of financial products and services, including commercial and retail banking, mortgage origination, and financial advisory services. The company is committed to delivering top-notch financial solutions to individuals, businesses, and institutions.
How the Company Makes MoneyHilltop Holdings generates revenue through its diversified operations in the financial services sector. The company earns money primarily through interest income from its banking operations, which involves lending activities and the management of its investment portfolio. In addition, Hilltop Holdings derives revenue from mortgage origination fees, gain on sales of loans, and servicing income through its mortgage division, PrimeLending. The company also benefits from fee-based income through its insurance operations, HilltopSecurities, which provides financial advisory and risk management services. Key revenue streams include net interest income, non-interest income from financial services, and fees from advisory and brokerage services. Strategic partnerships and a focus on expanding its customer base further contribute to the company's earnings.

Hilltop Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Hilltop Holdings shows a mixed financial performance with strong cash flow and a solid balance sheet but limited operational efficiency. The company maintains low leverage and a consistent equity structure, which provides stability despite negative EBIT margins indicating operational challenges.
Income Statement
65
Positive
The income statement analysis shows a mixed performance. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data indicates a gross profit margin of 102.63%, showing efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is only 13.32%, and the EBIT margin is negative, reflecting operational challenges. Revenue has fluctuated over recent years, with a decline from 2020 to 2021, followed by some recovery. The EBITDA margin is relatively low at 3.60% TTM, suggesting limited operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet is relatively strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.41 TTM, indicating manageable leverage. The return on equity is 5.91% TTM, which is modest but stable. The equity ratio is 13.91% TTM, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial position with low leverage and a consistent equity base.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals strong operational cash flow, with a significant increase in free cash flow growth rate TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 5.31 TTM, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 5.28 TTM, underscoring robust cash generation capabilities. This strong cash flow position provides the company with a buffer against potential financial challenges.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
836.39M1.18B700.32M1.83B2.11B
Gross Profit
836.39M1.18B700.32M1.83B2.11B
EBIT
-592.80M350.81M288.27M492.47M580.91M
EBITDA
0.000.000.00386.10M431.28M
Net Income Common Stockholders
113.21M109.65M113.13M374.50M447.84M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.30B1.86B9.67B4.95B2.52B
Total Assets
16.27B16.47B16.27B18.69B16.94B
Total Debt
1.18B656.48M1.44B1.38B1.27B
Net Debt
-1.12B-1.20B-136.04M-1.44B207.69M
Total Liabilities
14.05B14.32B14.20B16.14B14.59B
Stockholders Equity
2.19B2.12B2.05B2.52B2.32B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
266.80M434.54M1.18B740.87M242.69M
Operating Cash Flow
273.93M443.02M1.19B765.62M280.44M
Investing Cash Flow
354.22M158.34M-877.30M-553.27M-827.67M
Financing Cash Flow
-174.31M-332.51M-1.71B1.48B1.26B

Hilltop Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price30.26
Price Trends
50DMA
29.80
Positive
100DMA
29.72
Positive
200DMA
30.50
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.18
Negative
RSI
61.28
Neutral
STOCH
80.07
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.08, above the 50-day MA of 29.80, and below the 200-day MA of 30.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HTH.

Hilltop Holdings Risk Analysis

Hilltop Holdings disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hilltop Holdings reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Hilltop Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$2.23B14.269.55%3.09%12.11%16.67%
HTHTH
70
Outperform
$1.92B15.245.89%2.30%0.59%14.96%
67
Neutral
$2.01B13.794.94%6.19%23.12%1092.18%
65
Neutral
$2.15B17.7613.18%1.67%14.34%16.24%
FBFBK
65
Neutral
$2.08B16.438.27%1.54%3.30%14.32%
64
Neutral
$12.57B9.747.88%16985.68%12.42%-5.45%
63
Neutral
$2.10B317.663.28%2.64%-17.36%-95.37%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
HTH
Hilltop Holdings
30.26
-0.45
-1.47%
NBTB
NBT Bancorp
43.02
6.67
18.35%
PPBI
Pacific Premier Bancorp
21.34
-0.41
-1.89%
SYBT
Stock Yards Bancorp
75.95
29.25
62.63%
TRMK
Trustmark
35.12
5.74
19.54%
FBK
FB Financial
45.23
7.32
19.31%

Hilltop Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 25, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 5.07%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 17, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with both positive and negative aspects. While the company demonstrated strong capital management, growth in public finance revenues, and a significant gain from the sale of an investment, it faced challenges in the mortgage origination segment and fixed income market. Additionally, there was an increase in credit loss provisions and a decrease in total deposits.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Stable Net Interest Income
Hilltop Holdings Inc. was able to maintain stable net interest income despite a modest compression in the overall balance of earning assets, with a reported net interest income of $105 million, a 1.4% increase from the prior year.
Increase in Public Finance Services Revenues
Hilltop Securities' Public Finance Services produced a 34% year-over-year increase in net revenues, driven by an 11% increase in offerings.
Merchant Bank Investment Gain
Hilltop Holdings Inc. reported a preliminary gain of $23.6 million from the sale of its investment in Mosier Energy Solutions, positively impacting net income by $0.37 per diluted share.
Strong Capital Position
The company maintains a strong capital position with a common equity tier one capital ratio of 21% and an increase in tangible book value per share by $0.53 to $30 per share.
Increase in Core Deposits
Average core deposits at PlainsCapital Bank increased by nearly $300 million year-over-year, demonstrating strong customer retention.
Negative Updates
Mortgage Origination Segment Loss
PrimeLending reported a pretax loss of $8 million due to ongoing constraints in the mortgage market, with origination fees and related income decreasing by 29 basis points year-over-year.
Fixed Income Market Challenges
Hilltop Securities experienced a material decline in net revenues within the fixed income services line of business, with a reported 7% year-over-year decline in net revenues.
Increase in Allowance for Credit Losses
The allowance for credit losses increased by $5 million to $106 million, driven by negative migration of certain credit relationships, notably an $18 million office property with reduced occupancy.
Decrease in Total Deposits
Total deposits decreased by $233 million from the prior quarter, influenced by the payoff of $150 million of maturing senior debt and the movement of customer funds into other investment products.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Hilltop Holdings Inc. reported net income of $42 million, or $0.65 per diluted share, with a return on average assets of 1.1% and a return on average equity of 7.8%. PlainsCapital Bank played a crucial role, generating $40 million in pretax income on $13 billion of average assets, while the broker-dealer segment saw strong performance in wealth and public finance despite challenges in the fixed income market. PrimeLending experienced a pretax loss of $8 million due to persistent affordability challenges, although it did see a year-over-year origination volume increase to $1.7 billion. The company also recognized a $23.6 million gain from the sale of its investment in Mosier Energy Solutions. Hilltop Holdings maintained a strong capital position, with a common equity tier one capital ratio of 21% and an increase in tangible book value per share to $30. The company returned $12 million to stockholders through dividends and repurchased $33 million in shares.

Hilltop Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Hilltop Holdings Board Reduces Members to Thirteen
Neutral
Apr 30, 2025

On April 29, 2025, J. Markham Green announced he would not seek re-election at Hilltop Holdings Inc.’s 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders scheduled for July 24, 2025. His decision was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations or policies. Subsequently, on April 30, 2025, the Board of Directors decided to reduce the number of board members to thirteen, effective at the Annual Meeting, without affecting the tenure of current directors.

Spark’s Take on HTH Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, HTH is a Neutral.

Hilltop Holdings scores a 67, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook. The company’s strong capital position and stable profitability are positive factors. However, challenges in revenue growth, cash flow consistency, and specific segment weaknesses, particularly in the mortgage origination and fixed income markets, temper the overall score. The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, while the valuation remains fair with a reasonable dividend yield.

To see Spark’s full report on HTH stock, click here.

Executive/Board Changes
Hilltop Holdings Extends Martin B. Winges’ Employment Agreement
Neutral
Apr 25, 2025

On April 24, 2025, Hilltop Holdings Inc. appointed Mr. Gerald J. Ford as Chairman Emeritus, allowing him to attend board meetings without voting rights. Mr. Jeremy B. Ford was named Chairman of the Board, and Mr. Tracy Bolt was appointed as lead independent director. The board also reduced its size to fourteen directors. On April 25, 2025, Hilltop Holdings amended its employment agreement with Martin B. Winges, extending it until February 29, 2028. The amendment adjusts the incentive bonus calculation and allows Mr. Winges to retire voluntarily at age 65 with a pro rata bonus.

Spark’s Take on HTH Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, HTH is a Neutral.

Hilltop Holdings demonstrates robust financial management and stable equity backing, contributing to a solid base score. However, technical indicators point to bearish sentiment, and valuation metrics suggest the stock is fairly priced. The mixed earnings call results, with both growth in some areas and challenges in others, further influence the overall score.

To see Spark’s full report on HTH stock, click here.

Executive/Board Changes
Hilltop Holdings Director Charlotte L. Jones Resigns
Neutral
Apr 23, 2025

On April 19, 2025, Charlotte L. Jones resigned from the Board of Directors of Hilltop Holdings Inc., effective immediately. Her resignation was not due to any disagreements with the company’s operations, policies, or practices.

Spark’s Take on HTH Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, HTH is a Neutral.

Hilltop Holdings demonstrates robust financial management and stable equity backing, contributing to a solid base score. However, technical indicators point to bearish sentiment, and valuation metrics suggest the stock is fairly priced. The mixed earnings call results, with both growth in some areas and challenges in others, further influence the overall score.

To see Spark’s full report on HTH stock, click here.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.