Hilltop Holdings (HTH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.41B
• Dividend Yield: 2.08%
• Average Volume (3M): 278.58K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.57
• Revenue Growth: 5.21%
• EPS Growth: 53.15%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,616
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): 0.69
• Shares Outstanding: 61,328,537
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 477,206
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 278,579
• PEG Ratio: 0.25
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.57
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.55
• 1Y Price Target: $37.50
• Price Target Upside: -4.43% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 2.08
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.26B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $40.00 ▲(1.94% Upside)

The score is driven by solid financial performance with improving profitability and a strengthened balance sheet, supported by favorable technical trend signals. Valuation appears reasonable with a modest dividend. Earnings-call positives around capital strength, shareholder returns, and asset quality are tempered by continued mortgage/PrimeLending weakness and some credit-risk concerns.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The robust revenue growth indicates a strong recovery and expanding market presence, which can lead to sustained business expansion and profitability.

Capital Structure

A lower debt-to-equity ratio reflects reduced leverage, enhancing financial stability and flexibility, which is crucial for long-term growth and risk management.

Shareholder Returns

Consistent shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks demonstrate strong cash generation and a commitment to enhancing shareholder value.

Negative Factors

Cash Flow Challenges

Significant decline in free cash flow indicates potential difficulties in converting earnings into cash, which could impact future investments and financial stability.

Mortgage Market Pressure

Continued pressure in the mortgage market affects PrimeLending's performance, posing a risk to revenue streams and profitability in this segment.

Operational Efficiency

Lower operational efficiency as indicated by EBIT and EBITDA margins suggests room for improvement in cost management and profitability.

Hilltop Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Hilltop Holdings Inc. provides business and consumer banking, and financial products and services. It operates through three segments: Banking, Broker-Dealer, and Mortgage Origination. The Banking segment offers savings, checking, interest-bearing checking, and money market accounts; certificates of deposit; lines and letters of credit, home improvement and equity loans, loans for purchasing and carrying securities, equipment loans and leases, agricultural and commercial real estate loans, and other loans; and commercial and industrial loans, and term and construction finance. This segment also provides treasury management, wealth management, asset management, check cards, safe deposit boxes, online banking, bill pay, trust, and overdraft services; and estate planning, management and administration, investment portfolio management, employee benefit accounts, and individual retirement accounts, as well as automated teller machines. The Broker-Dealer segment offers public finance services that assist public entities in originating, syndicating, and distributing securities of municipalities and political subdivisions; specialized advisory and investment banking services; advice and guidance to arbitrage rebate compliance, portfolio management, and local government investment pool administration; structured finance services, which include advisory services for derivatives and commodities; sells, trades in, and underwrites U.S. government and government agency bonds, corporate bonds, and municipal bonds, as well as mortgage-backed, asset-backed, and commercial mortgage-backed securities and structured products. This segment also provides asset and liability management advisory, clearing, retail, and securities lending services. The Mortgage Origination segment offers mortgage, jumbo, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Affairs, and United States Department of Agriculture loans. Hilltop Holdings Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Hilltop Holdings generates revenue through several key streams. Its commercial banking segment earns money primarily from interest income on loans and fees associated with various banking services. The mortgage banking division contributes significantly through origination fees, servicing fees, and gains on mortgage sales. Additionally, the insurance segment generates revenue through premiums collected from policyholders and investment income from the management of policyholder funds. Strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and real estate companies enhance Hilltop's market presence and provide additional revenue opportunities. The company also benefits from a diversified portfolio, which helps mitigate risks and stabilize earnings across different market conditions.

Hilltop Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement strength (72) is supported by sharp TTM revenue growth and improved net margin, but operating margins are still below prior highs. Balance sheet (68) shows reduced leverage and stable capitalization, though ROE remains modest. Cash flow is the main drag (60) with weak cash conversion and a large TTM free-cash-flow decline.

Income Statement

Hilltop Holdings shows a strong revenue growth rate of 42.6% in the TTM, indicating a robust recovery from previous declines. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 64.5%, although it has decreased from prior years. The net profit margin improved to 11.96% in the TTM, reflecting better profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins, while improving, are still below historical highs, suggesting room for operational efficiency improvements.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.46 in the TTM, indicating a reduction in leverage compared to previous years. Return on equity is modest at 7.27%, showing a slight improvement. The equity ratio is stable, reflecting a solid capital structure. However, the overall return on equity is lower than industry averages, suggesting potential inefficiencies in generating returns from equity.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has significantly declined by 59.77% in the TTM, which is a concern. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.25, indicating potential challenges in converting income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 99.45%, suggesting that the company is still able to generate cash relative to its net income.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.63B	1.54B	1.50B	1.35B	1.85B
Gross Profit	1.27B	1.12B	1.11B	1.21B	1.80B
EBITDA	221.06M	174.21M	168.75M	188.75M	528.70M
Net Income	165.59M	113.21M	109.65M	113.13M	374.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.84B	16.27B	16.47B	16.27B	18.69B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.23B	3.70B	3.37B	3.24B	4.95B
Total Debt	1.06B	1.35B	1.39B	1.50B	1.47B
Total Liabilities	13.65B	14.05B	14.32B	14.20B	16.14B
Stockholders Equity	2.17B	2.19B	2.12B	2.05B	2.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	266.80M	434.54M	1.18B	740.87M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	273.93M	443.02M	1.19B	765.62M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	354.22M	158.34M	-877.30M	-553.27M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	-174.31M	-332.51M	-1.71B	1.48B

Hilltop Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 39.24
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HTH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 36.23, above the 50-day MA of 35.24, and above the 200-day MA of 32.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.81 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.89 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HTH.

Hilltop Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NBTB	77 Outperform	$2.41B	13.59	8.87%	3.33%	11.63%	5.58%
SYBT	74 Outperform	$2.05B	14.40	13.69%	1.88%	11.74%	26.27%
BANR	71 Outperform	$2.18B	11.26	10.28%	2.97%	6.98%	15.08%
BUSE	71 Outperform	$2.33B	17.51	5.33%	4.11%	41.45%	-41.16%
HTH	70 Outperform	$2.41B	14.63	7.60%	2.08%	5.21%	53.15%
EFSC	70 Outperform	$2.20B	11.07	10.25%	2.20%	6.59%	9.36%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%

Hilltop Holdings Corporate Events

Hilltop Holdings Delivers Strong Results, Boosts Capital Returns

On January 29, 2026, Hilltop Holdings reported stronger fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with income attributable to common stockholders rising to $41.6 million, or $0.69 per diluted share, in the quarter and $165.6 million, or $2.64 per diluted share, for the year, both up from 2024 as improved performance across its banking, mortgage and securities units lifted returns, book value and noninterest income. The board also raised the quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.20 per share, payable on February 27, 2026, and authorized a new $125 million stock repurchase program through January 2027, extending an aggressive capital-return strategy that saw the company buy back $184 million of stock in 2025 alone, moves that underscore management’s confidence but come against a backdrop of rising credit-loss provisions and an uncertain macroeconomic outlook for 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTH) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hilltop Holdings stock, see the HTH Stock Forecast page.

Hilltop Holdings posts strong Q4 2025 earnings and returns

Hilltop Holdings reported fourth-quarter 2025 results highlighted by solid profitability at its core banking and securities units and continued capital returns to shareholders. PlainsCapital Bank generated $43.5 million in pre-tax income as net interest margin improved to 3.29% and both average loans and deposits grew from the prior quarter, even as the bank booked a $7.9 million provision for credit losses. HilltopSecurities contributed $25.5 million in pre-tax income on $138.4 million of net revenue, with an 18.4% pre-tax margin driven by stronger public finance and wealth management revenue, while PrimeLending posted a $5.2 million pre-tax loss despite lower non-interest expenses, improved gain-on-sale margins and higher mortgage origination volumes year over year. At the consolidated level, Hilltop’s Q4 2025 income attributable to the company rose 17% from a year earlier to $41.6 million, or $0.69 per diluted share, on 10% revenue growth and a 59% jump in pre-provision net revenue, even as credit costs increased; the group also continued to emphasize shareholder returns by distributing $71.8 million via dividends and share repurchases in the quarter, supporting growth in tangible book value per share and maintaining a strong common equity Tier 1 capital ratio.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTH) stock is a Buy with a $39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hilltop Holdings stock, see the HTH Stock Forecast page.

Hilltop Holdings Amends Employment Agreement with Furr

On December 8, 2025, Hilltop Holdings announced a Third Amendment to the Employment Agreement with William B. Furr, effective August 30, 2025. The amendment extends Furr’s employment term to August 31, 2028, adjusts bonus provisions in the event of death or disability, expands non-interference/solicit provisions, removes the non-competition clause, and eliminates outdated provisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (HTH) stock is a Buy with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Hilltop Holdings stock, see the HTH Stock Forecast page.