Strategy (MSTR)
NASDAQ:MSTR
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Strategy
(NASDAQ:MSTR)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$117.00
â–¼(-2.36% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/06/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and negative operating/free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these, the earnings call and recent disclosures point to improved balance-sheet positioning and continued capital access to execute the Bitcoin-focused strategy, but with substantial volatility and dilution risk.
Positive Factors
Scale of Bitcoin Treasury
Holding the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury provides durable strategic optionality: it positions the company as a long‑term proxy for BTC exposure, supports issuance of crypto‑linked credit instruments, and gives negotiating leverage with institutional counterparties and index providers over a multi‑month horizon.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Consistently negative operating and free cash flow materially reduce internal funding capacity and increase dependency on external capital. Over a multi‑month horizon this elevates refinancing and dilution risk, constraining investment in software growth and forcing continued reliance on ATM/preferred issuance to fund operations and Bitcoin buys.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale of Bitcoin Treasury
Holding the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury provides durable strategic optionality: it positions the company as a long‑term proxy for BTC exposure, supports issuance of crypto‑linked credit instruments, and gives negotiating leverage with institutional counterparties and index providers over a multi‑month horizon.
Read all positive factors
Strategy (MSTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$41.41B
Dividend Yield0.08%
Average Volume (3M)19.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth1.65%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,546
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-42.93
Shares Outstanding325,954,130
10 Day Avg. Volume19,430,402
30 Day Avg. Volume19,993,813
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.09
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)93.61
P/FCF Ratio-428.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue86.81
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit126.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.62
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$284.17Price Target Upside137.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)69.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)$491.67M
Strategy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Strategy Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a bitcoin treasury company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. The company offers investors varying degrees of economic exposure to Bitcoin by offeri...
How the Company Makes Money
Strategy generates revenue primarily from its enterprise analytics software business. Key revenue streams include: (1) Subscription and support revenue: recurring revenue from customers who subscribe to Strategy’s software offerings and pay for on...
Strategy Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Bitcoins Held
Shows the amount of Bitcoin the company holds, reflecting its strategic investment in cryptocurrency and potential exposure to crypto market volatility.
Shows the amount of Bitcoin the company holds, reflecting its strategic investment in cryptocurrency and potential exposure to crypto market volatility.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyStrategy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a mix of significant strategic progress and near-term accounting-driven pain. Positives include large capital raises (> $25B in 2025), continued disciplined Bitcoin accumulation (713,502 BTC; +~225,000 BTC in 2025), adoption of fair-value accounting, the first S&P credit rating for a Bitcoin treasury company (B-), establishment of a $2.25B USD reserve (≈30 months dividend coverage), and strong early traction for the Stretch digital credit product (11.25% dividend, high liquidity, low single-digit volatility target). Negatives center on material quarter-end mark-to-market losses (Q4 operating loss $17.4B, net loss $12.6B), sensitivity to Bitcoin price and leverage dynamics (net debt ≈ $6B; convertible maturities through 2027–2032), and the need to season new credit products. Weighing the balance, management emphasized durable balance-sheet enhancements and long-term strategy execution despite short-term volatility and accounting losses.Positive Updates
Largest Corporate Bitcoin Holder
Ended 2025 with 713,502 Bitcoin on the balance sheet (~3.4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist), continuing quarterly accumulation and reinforcing position as the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
Negative Updates
Large Q4 and Full-Year Mark-to-Market Losses
Reported Q4 operating loss of $17.4 billion and net loss of $12.6 billion driven by quarter-end decline in Bitcoin fair value; full-year 2025 operating loss of $5.4 billion and net loss of $4.2 billion, including an unrealized fair-value loss of ~ $5.4 billion for the year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Largest Corporate Bitcoin Holder
Ended 2025 with 713,502 Bitcoin on the balance sheet (~3.4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist), continuing quarterly accumulation and reinforcing position as the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated disciplined, long‑term guidance anchored on growing Bitcoin per share and strengthening the balance sheet: it finished 2025 with 713,502 BTC (≈3.4% of eventual supply) at $54B cost (avg buy ~$76k), added ~225,000 BTC in 2025 (32,470 BTC in Q4 for ~$3.1B), delivered a 22.8% BTC yield (vs. 22–26% target) equating to 101,873 BTC and an $8.9B BTC dollar gain, and raised >$25B of capital (including $6.9B of preferreds across five IPOs) while establishing a $2.25B USD cash reserve (≈30 months / >2.5 years dividend coverage) and maintaining $2.3B cash, $58.9B digital assets (up from $23.9B), $8.2B long‑term debt, $1.9B deferred tax liability and $51.1B total equity; Q4 operating loss was $17.4B (net loss $12.6B) and FY operating loss $5.4B (net loss $4.2B), total interest/dividend obligations are $888M (including $35M interest on converts at ~42 bps), and management plans no new convertible issuance while focusing on scaling digital credit (e.g., Stretch: $2.5B issue, 11.25% dividend / 18% tax‑equivalent, ~7% vol, ~$118M/day liquidity, 5.6x collateral) and targeted scenarios to amplify BTC/share 1.4x–2.5x over seven years (5%–14% annual BTC‑yield scenarios).Strategy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 477.23M | 463.46M | 496.26M | 499.26M | 510.76M |
| Gross Profit | 327.82M | 333.99M | 386.32M | 396.27M | 418.85M |
| EBITDA | -5.44B | -1.85B | -61.04M | -1.26B | -770.88M |
| Net Income | -4.03B | -1.17B | 429.12M | -1.47B | -535.48M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 61.64B | 25.84B | 4.76B | 2.41B | 3.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.30B | 38.12M | 46.82M | 43.84M | 63.36M |
| Total Debt | 8.28B | 7.26B | 2.25B | 2.45B | 2.23B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.60B | 7.61B | 2.60B | 2.79B | 2.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 51.04B | 18.23B | 2.16B | -383.12M | 978.96M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -104.24M | -22.14B | -1.89B | -287.20M | -2.54B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -67.24M | -53.03M | 12.71M | 3.21M | 93.83M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.51B | -22.09B | -1.91B | -278.59M | -2.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 24.84B | 22.13B | 1.89B | 265.19M | 2.54B |
Strategy Technical Analysis
Negative
119.83
Price Trends
136.27
Negative
156.87
Negative
254.31
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.22
Positive
37.92
Neutral
19.59
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MSTR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 119.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 135.00, below the 50-day MA of 136.27, and below the 200-day MA of 254.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.59 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MSTR.
Strategy Risk Analysis
Strategy disclosed 68 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Strategy reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Strategy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $33.99B | 66.22 | 7.97% | ― | 13.35% | -60.76% | |
67 Neutral | $50.23B | 47.92 | 39.89% | ― | 15.62% | 2.59% | |
65 Neutral | $42.46B | 438.37 | 3.24% | ― | 26.63% | -46.13% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
56 Neutral | $18.07B | -250.38 | -13.32% | ― | 19.51% | 53.35% | |
56 Neutral | $52.49B | -48.84 | -60.27% | ― | 28.48% | -19.12% | |
46 Neutral | $41.41B | -11.08 | -8.35% | 0.08% | 1.65% | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
MSTR
Strategy
119.83
-148.31
-55.31%
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238.08
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WDAY
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132.26
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TEAM
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68.29
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DDOG
Datadog
120.36
32.16
36.46%
SNOW
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151.85
20.81
15.88%
Strategy Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Expands ATM Offering and Boosts Bitcoin Holdings
Negative
Apr 6, 2026
On April 6, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported recent activity under its at-the-market offering program, raising net proceeds of about $227.3 million from sales of STRC stock and $72 million from MSTR stock between March 30 and March 31, followed by a f...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Strategy Maintains High Dividend Rate on Preferred Stock
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On March 31, 2026, Strategy Inc. announced it would maintain an 11.50% annual dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock for monthly periods starting April 1, 2026, and declared a cash dividend of $0.958333333 pe...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresLegal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Highlights Bitcoin Holdings and Litigation Resolution Update
Neutral
Mar 30, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that it neither sold shares under its at-the-market equity program nor purchased additional bitcoin during the period from March 23 to March 29, 2026. As of March 29, the company held about 762,099 bitcoin...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Rebalances Preferred Equity Structure and ATM Programs
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Strategy Inc. expanded its Omnibus Sales Agreement by adding Moelis Company, A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners and StoneX Financial as additional sales agents, while putting in place new ATM programs for its Class A common stock,...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Raises Equity to Further Expand Bitcoin Holdings
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
On March 23, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that between March 16 and March 22, 2026, it sold 509,111 shares of its MSTR Class A common stock under its at‑the‑market offering, generating net proceeds of $76.5 million, while leaving more ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Raises Capital to Expand Bitcoin Holdings
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that between March 9 and March 15 it sold 11,818,467 shares of its 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock for approximately $1.18 billion in net proceeds and 2,833,668 shares of its Class A commo...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Expands ATM Program and Increases Bitcoin Holdings
Positive
Mar 9, 2026
On March 9, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that between March 2 and March 8, 2026, it sold 3,776,205 shares of its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock for notional value of $377.6 million, generating net proceeds of $377.1 milli...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Boosts Preferred Dividend Amid Ongoing Bitcoin Expansion
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
Between February 23 and March 1, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported activity under its at-the-market offering, selling 71,590 shares of its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock for net proceeds of $7.1 million and 1,730,563 shares of...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings Using Recent Equity Offering
Neutral
Feb 23, 2026
Between February 17 and February 22, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that under its at-the-market offering program it sold 297,940 shares of its Class A common stock, generating net proceeds of $39.7 million, while making no sales of its various seri...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Raises Capital and Expands Bitcoin Holdings
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported activity under its at-the-market offering, disclosing that between February 9 and February 16 it sold 785,354 shares of its 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock for $78.5 million in face val...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Announces Bitcoin Purchases Funded by Stock Sales
Neutral
Feb 9, 2026
On February 9, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that between February 2 and February 8, 2026, it sold 616,715 shares of its Class A common stock under its at-the-market offering program, generating approximately $89.5 million in net proceeds, while no...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Updates Dividend Framework and Highlights Bitcoin Expansion
Negative
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2025 results and announced an updated, rules-based Dividend Adjustment Framework for its STRC preferred stock, tying monthly dividend recommendations to the security’s volume-weighte...
DividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Details 2025 Digital Credit Distribution Tax Treatment
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
On February 2, 2026, Strategy Inc announced that, for U.S. federal income tax purposes, all distributions paid during calendar year 2025 on its preferred equity “Digital Credit” instruments were treated as a nontaxable return of capita...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Raises Equity, Expands Bitcoin Holdings and Dividend
Positive
Feb 2, 2026
Between January 26 and February 1, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that it raised approximately $106.1 million in net proceeds through sales of its Class A common stock under its at-the-market offering program, with no sales of its various preferred ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings Using ATM Equity Proceeds
Positive
Jan 26, 2026
On January 26, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported an update on its at-the-market offering program for the period from January 20 to January 25, 2026, during which it sold 70,201 shares of its 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock for $7 milli...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy expands bitcoin holdings using equity offering proceeds
Neutral
Jan 20, 2026
On January 20, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported activity under its at-the-market offering program for the period from January 12 to January 19, 2026, disclosing that it sold 2,945,371 shares of its STRC preferred stock and 38,796 shares of its STRK pr...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings Through New Equity Issuance
Neutral
Jan 12, 2026
On January 12, 2026, Strategy Inc. reported that between January 5 and January 11, 2026, it raised approximately $1.25 billion in net proceeds through its at-the-market offering program, primarily via the sale of about 1.19 million shares of its 1...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.