Autodesk (ADSK)
NASDAQ:ADSK
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Autodesk
(NASDAQ:ADSK)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$237.00
▲(8.49% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is supported primarily by strong underlying financial performance (high margins and excellent free-cash-flow generation) and a generally positive earnings outlook with solid FY27 margin and cash-flow targets. It is held back by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a premium valuation (P/E 43.64) alongside acknowledged near-term execution risk from the sales restructuring and transaction-model-related headwinds.
Positive Factors
Recurring subscription model & high switching costs
Autodesk’s subscription-first model and entrenched workflows (AutoCAD/Revit ecosystems) create durable recurring revenue and pricing power. Multi-year adoption and high switching costs support retention, predictable cash flows, and a long runway for upsell of cloud/AI services over multiple planning cycles.
Negative Factors
Sales restructuring and workforce reductions
A sizable go-to-market reorganization and ~7% headcount reduction in customer‑facing roles creates real near‑term risk to new subscription capture and billings cadence. These structural changes may depress sales productivity and elongate conversion cycles for multiple quarters as channels and incentives are rebalanced.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring subscription model & high switching costs
Autodesk’s subscription-first model and entrenched workflows (AutoCAD/Revit ecosystems) create durable recurring revenue and pricing power. Multi-year adoption and high switching costs support retention, predictable cash flows, and a long runway for upsell of cloud/AI services over multiple planning cycles.
Read all positive factors
Autodesk (ADSK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$46.09B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)47.9
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth15.62%
EPS Growth2.59%
CountryUS
Employees15,300
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.85
Shares Outstanding211,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,799,995
30 Day Avg. Volume1,993,649
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio22.52
Price to Book (P/B)17.69
Price to Sales (P/S)7.47
P/FCF Ratio22.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.34
Enterprise Value/Ebitda27.86
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$325.17Price Target Upside48.85% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)12.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.15B
Autodesk Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Autodesk, Inc. provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software and services worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering, including land development, tr...
How the Company Makes Money
Autodesk primarily makes money by selling access to its software through subscription-based licensing. The company’s revenue is largely recurring and is generated from: (1) Subscriptions to individual products and industry “collections” (bundles) ...
Autodesk Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAutodesk Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strong operational and financial quarter with robust revenue and billings growth, expanding non-GAAP margins, healthy free cash flow and aggressive AI and cloud strategy execution. Those positives were tempered by a sizeable restructuring charge, planned customer-facing sales reorganizations that introduce short-term disruption risk (explicitly priced into guidance), cash restructuring outflows, and some transparency and comparability headwinds from the new transaction model and disclosure changes. Overall the company portrays confidence in long-term AI- and platform-driven monetization while acknowledging near-term execution and timing risks.Positive Updates
Top-Line Growth
Total revenue grew 19% year-over-year (reported and constant currency). Excluding the new transaction model contribution (~$137M), revenue grew ~14% in constant currency.
Negative Updates
Restructuring Charge and Workforce Actions
Q4 GAAP results reflected a $100M restructuring charge related to go-to-market optimization; management referenced a ~7% reduction in force as part of optimization (customer-facing sales roles emphasized).
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line Growth
Total revenue grew 19% year-over-year (reported and constant currency). Excluding the new transaction model contribution (~$137M), revenue grew ~14% in constant currency.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Autodesk guided fiscal 2027 billings of $8.48–8.58 billion and revenue of $8.10–8.17 billion, with GAAP operating margin of 26–28% and non‑GAAP operating margin of 38.5–39%, and free cash flow of $2.7–2.8 billion; they expect stock‑based compensation to fall below 10% of revenue, cash restructuring outflows of $135–160 million, and no meaningful U.S. federal cash tax in FY27 (normalizing in FY28). Management cautioned the guide embeds prudence for near‑term sales restructuring (with billings slightly back‑loaded to H2), notes the new transaction model will stop providing billings tailwinds (noise fading from ~+3.5 pts in Q1 to ~+1.5 pts full‑year) and will be roughly a 1‑point incremental margin headwind, and reiterated a capital allocation framework targeting ~50% of free cash flow to buybacks (expecting buybacks in FY27 similar in dollars to FY26).Autodesk Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
83
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.21B | 6.13B | 5.44B | 4.95B | 4.40B |
| Gross Profit | 6.50B | 5.55B | 4.89B | 4.43B | 3.94B |
| EBITDA | 1.80B | 1.55B | 1.27B | 1.17B | 789.00M |
| Net Income | 1.12B | 1.11B | 906.00M | 823.00M | 497.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.47B | 10.83B | 9.91B | 9.44B | 8.61B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.60B | 1.89B | 2.25B | 2.07B | 1.76B |
| Total Debt | 2.73B | 2.56B | 2.63B | 2.67B | 3.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.42B | 8.21B | 8.06B | 8.29B | 7.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.04B | 2.62B | 1.85B | 1.15B | 849.10M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.41B | 1.50B | 1.28B | 2.02B | 1.46B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.45B | 1.61B | 1.31B | 2.07B | 1.53B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -451.00M | -903.00M | -502.00M | -143.00M | -1.59B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.36B | -987.00M | -852.00M | -1.49B | -168.60M |
Autodesk Technical Analysis
Negative
218.45
Price Trends
241.05
Negative
265.17
Negative
285.27
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.01
Positive
32.59
Neutral
38.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADSK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 218.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 239.89, below the 50-day MA of 241.05, and below the 200-day MA of 285.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADSK.
Autodesk Risk Analysis
Autodesk disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Autodesk reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Autodesk Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $73.35B | 76.48 | 21.68% | ― | 19.72% | 1.59% | |
71 Outperform | $15.88B | 31.21 | 22.47% | ― | 19.18% | 96.62% | |
70 Outperform | $9.48B | 51.21 | 23.93% | 0.72% | 11.12% | -26.24% | |
67 Neutral | $46.09B | 47.92 | 39.89% | ― | 15.62% | 2.59% | |
65 Neutral | $37.17B | 438.37 | 3.24% | ― | 26.63% | -46.13% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
56 Neutral | $15.13B | -250.38 | -13.32% | ― | 19.51% | 53.35% |
* Technology Sector Average
ADSK
Autodesk
218.45
-42.26
-16.21%
CDNS
Cadence Design
265.66
5.10
1.96%
PTC
PTC
133.44
-13.10
-8.94%
TEAM
Atlassian
57.15
-143.84
-71.57%
DDOG
Datadog
105.37
13.49
14.68%
BSY
Bentley Systems
31.30
-11.43
-26.76%
Autodesk Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Autodesk Posts Strong Q4 FY2026 Results, Demand Robust
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
Autodesk reported strong fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and full-year results on February 26, 2026, with quarterly revenue up 19% year over year to $1.96 billion and billings up 33%, driven by broad-based growth across design, make and other product c...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Autodesk Announces Global Restructuring and Raises Financial Outlook
Positive
Jan 22, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Autodesk announced a worldwide restructuring that will eliminate about 7% of its global workforce, or roughly 1,000 roles, primarily in customer-facing sales teams, marking the final phase of a multi-year sales and marketing o...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.