Autodesk (ADSK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $46.83B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.24M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 43.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.06
• Revenue Growth: 15.62%
• EPS Growth: 2.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 15,300
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Software - Application
• EPS (TTM): 2.85
• Shares Outstanding: 212,000,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,222,103
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,244,210
• PEG Ratio: 22.52
• Price to Book (P/B): 17.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.95
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.06
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 31.43
• 1Y Price Target: $330.05
• Price Target Upside: 41.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 22
• EPS Forecast (FY): 11.59
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $7.96B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: $253.00 ▲(8.37% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is supported primarily by strong underlying financial performance (high margins and excellent free-cash-flow generation) and a generally positive earnings outlook with solid FY27 margin and cash-flow targets. It is held back by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a premium valuation (P/E 43.64) alongside acknowledged near-term execution risk from the sales restructuring and transaction-model-related headwinds.

Positive Factors

Free cash flow conversion

Autodesk's very high free cash flow conversion indicates durable earnings quality and strong cash generation ability. Persistent FCF supports capital allocation (buybacks, R&D, cloud investments) and provides flexibility to fund restructuring and AI platform builds without over-reliance on external financing.

High gross & EBITDA margins

Sustained ultra-high gross margins reflect a scalable SaaS/licensing model and strong pricing power. Solid EBITDA margins leave room to invest in go-to-market and AI while maintaining profitability, supporting durable operating leverage as cloud and consumption mixes grow.

Cloud and AI platform strategy

Long-term focus on cloud, APS and agentic AI creates a structural opportunity to move customers to higher-value, consumption-based offerings. Platform and AI investments improve stickiness, create new monetization levers, and enhance competitive differentiation across AECO and manufacturing sectors.

Negative Factors

Sales restructuring risk

A substantial, structural go-to-market reset focused on sales roles can improve efficiency long-term but risks disrupting customer relationships, renewals and new-account acquisition. Execution missteps or slower ramp of retooled sales coverage could depress billings and revenue for multiple quarters.

Transaction model headwind

A structural change to billing/transaction mechanics reduces comparability and creates a recurring margin headwind. Ongoing timing effects complicate forecasting, could mute reported growth despite consumption gains, and require management to demonstrate sustainable underlying demand.

Recent revenue and margin volatility

A recent revenue dip and fluctuating net margins signal sensitivity to macro or execution dynamics. Volatility reduces predictability of long-term targets and raises the bar for the sales reorganization and platform monetization to consistently deliver on guided margins and cash-flow goals.

Autodesk Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Autodesk, Inc. provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software and services worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering, including land development, transportation, and environmental projects; BIM 360, a construction management cloud-based software; AutoCAD, a software for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD LT, a drafting and detailing software; computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) software for computer numeric control machining, inspection, and modelling for manufacturing; Fusion 360, a 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering tool; and Industry Collections tools for professionals in architecture, engineering and construction, product design and manufacturing, and media and entertainment collection industries. It also provides Inventor tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation; Vault, a data management software to manage data in one central location, accelerate design processes, and streamline internal/external collaboration; Maya and 3ds Max software products that offer 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing solutions; and ShotGrid, a cloud-based software for review and production tracking in the media and entertainment industry. It sells its products and services to customers directly, as well as through a network of resellers and distributors. Autodesk, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in San Rafael, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Autodesk generates revenue primarily through software subscriptions and maintenance plans. The company offers a range of subscription options, including monthly, annual, and multi-year plans, which provide users with access to its software products and services. This transition to a subscription model has allowed Autodesk to create a more predictable revenue stream and improve customer retention. Key revenue streams also include sales of cloud services, consulting, and training services. Additionally, Autodesk benefits from partnerships with hardware manufacturers, educational institutions, and industry-specific organizations, which enhance its market reach and provide integrated solutions to customers.

Autodesk Financial Statement Overview

Summary

High-quality software model with very strong gross margins (~90%+) and solid EBITDA margins (~18%–25%), plus excellent free-cash-flow conversion. Score is tempered by the most recent revenue decline (-1.54%), volatility in net margins, and historically elevated leverage (despite meaningful improvement to under 1x debt-to-equity recently).

Income Statement

Autodesk shows strong profitability for a software business, with consistently high gross margins (~90%+ across years) and solid EBITDA margins (generally ~18%–25%). Revenue grew at a healthy pace from 2021–2025, but the most recent year shows a slight revenue decline (-1.54%), signaling a near-term growth slowdown. Net margins have been positive but somewhat volatile (notably very high in 2021 vs. mid-teens in most other years), which reduces earnings consistency despite overall solid profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved meaningfully over time: debt relative to equity has come down from elevated levels (above 3x in 2022 and above 2x in 2023) to under 1x in the latest year, driven by rising equity. Returns on equity are very strong, but they also reflect periods of relatively low equity versus earnings, which can make the profile look riskier in downturns. Overall, the balance sheet trend is positive, though debt remains material and prior high leverage is a key historical risk point.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key strength: free cash flow is consistently high relative to net income (roughly mid-90% to near 100% in most years), indicating strong earnings quality and good conversion of profits into cash. Free cash flow growth is volatile (down sharply in 2024, then rebounding strongly in the latest year), but the absolute level remains robust. Operating cash flow is sizable, supporting financial flexibility, even though year-to-year swings suggest sensitivity to working-capital and timing effects.

Breakdown	Jan 2026	Jan 2025	Jan 2024	Jan 2023	Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.78B	6.13B	5.44B	4.95B	4.40B
Gross Profit	6.56B	5.55B	4.89B	4.43B	3.94B
EBITDA	1.58B	1.55B	1.27B	1.17B	789.00M
Net Income	1.12B	1.11B	906.00M	823.00M	497.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.47B	10.83B	9.91B	9.44B	8.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.60B	1.89B	2.25B	2.07B	1.76B
Total Debt	2.73B	2.56B	2.63B	2.67B	3.06B
Total Liabilities	9.42B	8.21B	8.06B	8.29B	7.76B
Stockholders Equity	3.04B	2.62B	1.85B	1.15B	849.10M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.41B	1.50B	1.28B	2.02B	1.46B
Operating Cash Flow	2.45B	1.61B	1.31B	2.07B	1.53B
Investing Cash Flow	-451.00M	-903.00M	-502.00M	-143.00M	-1.59B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.36B	-987.00M	-852.00M	-1.49B	-168.60M

Autodesk Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 233.45
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADSK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 233.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 235.46, below the 50-day MA of 263.92, and below the 200-day MA of 293.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -11.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 43.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADSK.

Autodesk Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PTC	73 Outperform	$18.27B	22.51	23.34%	―	19.18%	96.62%
CDNS	72 Outperform	$79.24B	74.40	21.85%	―	19.72%	1.59%
BSY	70 Outperform	$9.82B	39.06	24.16%	0.72%	11.12%	-26.24%
ADSK	67 Neutral	$46.83B	43.64	40.33%	―	15.62%	2.59%
DDOG	65 Neutral	$36.83B	372.48	3.34%	―	26.63%	-46.13%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
TEAM	56 Neutral	$18.84B	-101.74	-13.47%	―	19.51%	53.35%

Autodesk Corporate Events

Autodesk Posts Strong Q4 FY2026 Results, Demand Robust

Autodesk reported strong fiscal 2026 fourth quarter and full-year results on February 26, 2026, with quarterly revenue up 19% year over year to $1.96 billion and billings up 33%, driven by broad-based growth across design, make and other product categories. The company highlighted outperformance in its AECO segment, particularly construction and emerging markets, expanding operating margins, robust free cash flow of $972 million, and a 20% rise in remaining performance obligations to $8.3 billion, underscoring solid underlying demand even as it prepares a sales optimization plan that could temporarily affect billings and revenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADSK) stock is a Hold with a $236.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Autodesk stock, see the ADSK Stock Forecast page.

Autodesk Announces Global Restructuring and Raises Financial Outlook

On January 22, 2026, Autodesk announced a worldwide restructuring that will eliminate about 7% of its global workforce, or roughly 1,000 roles, primarily in customer-facing sales teams, marking the final phase of a multi-year sales and marketing optimization tied to its go-to-market transformation. The company plans to reallocate part of the associated cost savings to accelerate strategic priorities in AI, platforms, industry clouds and corporate functions, and expects to incur $135 million to $160 million in pre-tax restructuring charges, mostly in cash, with $90 million to $110 million booked in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and the remainder through fiscal 2027, when the plan is slated for completion. Despite the cuts, Autodesk reported that execution in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 remained strong and now expects billings, revenue, non-GAAP operating margin, non-GAAP EPS and free cash flow for both the quarter and the full year to exceed the top end of its prior guidance, underscoring management’s confidence that the organizational reset will support higher efficiency and long-term growth rather than reflecting external weakness or a shift to replacing employees with AI.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADSK) stock is a Buy with a $282.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Autodesk stock, see the ADSK Stock Forecast page.