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Autodesk (ADSK)
NASDAQ:ADSK

Autodesk (ADSK) AI Stock Analysis

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ADSK

Autodesk

(NASDAQ:ADSK)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$338.00
▲(12.32% Upside)
Autodesk's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, which are the most significant factors. The high valuation and mixed technical indicators slightly temper the score. The company's strategic focus on AI and cloud capabilities positions it well for future growth, but macroeconomic uncertainties and leverage management remain key considerations.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective business strategies, enhancing long-term financial stability.
AI and Cloud Innovations
Investments in AI and cloud technologies strengthen competitive advantage and drive innovation, supporting sustainable growth.
Free Cash Flow Growth
Increased free cash flow enhances financial flexibility and supports strategic investments, ensuring robust long-term growth.
Negative Factors
Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Persistent macroeconomic uncertainty may hinder growth prospects and affect financial performance, posing a risk to stability.
Margin Headwinds
Margin pressures from the new transaction model could impact profitability, challenging long-term financial performance.
Commercial Sector Challenges
Weakness in the commercial sector may limit growth opportunities, requiring strategic adjustments to maintain overall performance.

Autodesk (ADSK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Autodesk Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAutodesk, Inc. provides 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software and services worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution for civil engineering, including land development, transportation, and environmental projects; BIM 360, a construction management cloud-based software; AutoCAD, a software for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD LT, a drafting and detailing software; computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) software for computer numeric control machining, inspection, and modelling for manufacturing; Fusion 360, a 3D CAD, CAM, and computer-aided engineering tool; and Industry Collections tools for professionals in architecture, engineering and construction, product design and manufacturing, and media and entertainment collection industries. It also provides Inventor tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation; Vault, a data management software to manage data in one central location, accelerate design processes, and streamline internal/external collaboration; Maya and 3ds Max software products that offer 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing solutions; and ShotGrid, a cloud-based software for review and production tracking in the media and entertainment industry. It sells its products and services to customers directly, as well as through a network of resellers and distributors. Autodesk, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in San Rafael, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyAutodesk generates revenue primarily through software subscriptions and maintenance plans. The company offers a range of subscription options, including monthly, annual, and multi-year plans, which provide users with access to its software products and services. This transition to a subscription model has allowed Autodesk to create a more predictable revenue stream and improve customer retention. Key revenue streams also include sales of cloud services, consulting, and training services. Additionally, Autodesk benefits from partnerships with hardware manufacturers, educational institutions, and industry-specific organizations, which enhance its market reach and provide integrated solutions to customers.

Autodesk Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Annual Recurring Revenue
Annual Recurring Revenue
Highlights the predictable revenue stream from subscription-based services, indicating business stability and customer retention strength.
Chart InsightsAutodesk's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) shows a steady upward trend, reflecting strong business fundamentals. The latest earnings call highlights impressive revenue and billings growth, driven by strategic investments in AI and cloud platforms. Despite restructuring impacts and macroeconomic uncertainties, the company's momentum remains robust, with significant contributions from a new transaction model. However, softness in the Asia Pacific region could pose challenges. Overall, Autodesk's strategic focus and partnerships are paying off, positioning it well for continued growth.
Data provided by:The Fly

Autodesk Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 25, 2025
(Q3-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call revealed strong financial performance, with record-breaking revenue growth, successful execution of strategic transitions, and positive contributions from AI and cloud innovations. However, concerns about macroeconomic uncertainty and margin headwinds from the new transaction model were noted.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record-Breaking Revenue and Growth
Total revenue in the third quarter grew 18% as reported and in constant currency, with revenues of $7.15 billion to $7.165 billion projected for the full fiscal year. Billings increased 21% as reported, showcasing strong financial performance.
Strong Performance in AECO Segment
The AECO (Architecture, Engineering, Construction, and Operations) segment showed strength, driven by sustained investment in data centers, infrastructure, and industrial buildings.
Successful Transition to New Transaction Model
The new transaction model contributed approximately $124 million to revenue and $135 million to billings in Q3. The transition is on track, with operational friction easing.
AI and Cloud Innovations
Autodesk is integrating AI and cloud-based capabilities to enhance products and workflows, with AI innovations like sketch auto constraint in Fusion showing high adoption rates.
Increased Free Cash Flow Guidance
Free cash flow guidance was raised to between $2.26 billion and $2.29 billion, reflecting strong financial health.
Negative Updates
Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Despite stable conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated, which could impact future performance.
Margin Headwinds from New Transaction Model
The new transaction model is expected to create headwinds for reported operating margins in fiscal 2027.
Challenges in Commercial Sector
There is softness in the commercial sector, which is being offset by strength in other segments like data centers and infrastructure.
Company Guidance
During the Autodesk earnings call for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, several key financial metrics were highlighted, reflecting strong company performance. Revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share exceeded the high end of guidance ranges, while billings and free cash flow also surpassed expectations. The company raised its full-year guidance, projecting billings between $7.465 billion and $7.525 billion, and revenue from $7.15 billion to $7.165 billion. Non-GAAP operating margin guidance was increased to approximately 37.5%, or 40.5% on an underlying basis, excluding the impact of the new transaction model. Free cash flow guidance was updated to $2.26 billion to $2.29 billion. Additionally, Autodesk repurchased 1.2 million shares for $361 million in the quarter, bringing year-to-date buybacks to 3.7 million shares totaling $1.07 billion. The company is well-positioned for continued growth, with strong momentum in sectors such as architecture, engineering, and construction (AECO), as well as manufacturing, supported by strategic investments in cloud capabilities and AI-driven automation.

Autodesk Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Autodesk exhibits strong profitability and cash flow generation, with effective leverage management. However, the decline in revenue growth poses a risk to future performance. The company should focus on revitalizing sales growth while maintaining its operational efficiency and cash flow strength.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Autodesk demonstrates strong profitability with a high gross profit margin of 94.68% and a net profit margin of 27.51% for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). However, the revenue growth rate has declined by 21.2%, indicating a potential slowdown in sales. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting efficient operations, but the decline in revenue growth is a concern.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved to 0.95, indicating better leverage management compared to previous years. Return on equity is strong at 39.47%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio remains moderate, suggesting a balanced capital structure but with room for improvement in equity financing.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Autodesk's cash flow performance is robust, with a free cash flow growth rate of 12.26% and a high free cash flow to net income ratio of 98.14%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 45.51%, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. This highlights the company's ability to generate cash efficiently, supporting its financial stability.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.13B5.44B4.95B4.40B3.79B
Gross Profit5.55B4.89B4.43B3.94B3.42B
EBITDA1.55B1.27B1.17B789.00M720.80M
Net Income1.11B906.00M823.00M497.00M1.21B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets10.83B9.91B9.44B8.61B7.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.89B2.25B2.07B1.76B1.86B
Total Debt2.56B2.63B2.67B3.06B2.10B
Total Liabilities8.21B8.06B8.29B7.76B6.31B
Stockholders Equity2.62B1.85B1.15B849.10M965.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.50B1.28B2.02B1.46B1.34B
Operating Cash Flow1.61B1.31B2.07B1.53B1.44B
Investing Cash Flow-903.00M-502.00M-143.00M-1.59B-403.90M
Financing Cash Flow-987.00M-852.00M-1.49B-168.60M-1.05B

Autodesk Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price300.92
Price Trends
50DMA
303.52
Negative
100DMA
304.95
Negative
200DMA
293.25
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.21
Negative
RSI
49.22
Neutral
STOCH
16.51
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADSK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 300.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 298.85, below the 50-day MA of 303.52, and above the 200-day MA of 293.25, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.51 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADSK.

Autodesk Risk Analysis

Autodesk disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Autodesk reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Autodesk Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$92.02B86.5621.74%19.72%1.59%
74
Outperform
$63.76B58.2640.33%15.62%2.59%
73
Outperform
$20.98B29.0021.05%19.18%96.62%
71
Outperform
$12.42B49.4124.16%0.68%11.12%-26.24%
69
Neutral
$53.50B512.203.52%26.63%-46.13%
66
Neutral
$42.63B-15.35%19.51%53.35%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ADSK
Autodesk
300.92
-2.85
-0.94%
CDNS
Cadence Design
335.43
28.68
9.35%
PTC
PTC
178.00
-20.68
-10.41%
TEAM
Atlassian
163.26
-115.39
-41.41%
DDOG
Datadog
149.90
-3.13
-2.05%
BSY
Bentley Systems
41.11
-5.73
-12.23%

Autodesk Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Autodesk Reports Strong Q3 2026 Financial Results
Positive
Nov 25, 2025

On November 25, 2025, Autodesk announced its fiscal 2026 third-quarter financial results, showcasing an 18% revenue growth to $1.85 billion. The company highlighted its strong performance in the AECO sector and exceeded expectations in revenue, billings, and cash flow, leading to an increase in full-year guidance. Autodesk’s emphasis on AI-driven design and make solutions positions it for long-term value creation for customers and shareholders amidst a stable yet uncertain macroeconomic environment.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025