Marathon Petroleum (MPC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $61.84B
• Dividend Yield: 2.24%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.13M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.00
• Revenue Growth: -6.37%
• EPS Growth: -25.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 18,300
• Sector: Energy
• Sector Strength: 52
• Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
• EPS (TTM): 4.07
• Shares Outstanding: 294,740,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,033,220
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,127,702
• PEG Ratio: 0.39
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.86
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.53
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.71
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.12
• 1Y Price Target: $202.79
• Price Target Upside: -3.35% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 13.13
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $130.07B

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $219.00 ▲(4.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is anchored by solid but weakening financial fundamentals as the company moves from peak-cycle profitability to a more normalized (and more levered) profile. Offsetting that, technicals are supportive with the stock in an uptrend, and the latest earnings call reinforced disciplined capital allocation, strong execution, and shareholder-return focus. Valuation appears reasonable with a mid-teens P/E and a modest yield.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Sustained operating cash flow (~$8.3B) and FCF (~$4.8B) provide durable internal funding for value-enhancing capex, dividends, buybacks and debt reduction. Reliable cash generation reduces reliance on external financing through commodity cycles, supporting long-term capital allocation and resilience.

High refinery utilization & capture

Consistently high utilization, above-average capture and strong yields reflect robust operations and commercial execution. Combined with feedstock flexibility (~50% sour crude diet) and regional scale, this operational strength sustains margin capture across cycles and protects long-term competitiveness.

Midstream (MPLX) cash engine & growth

Record midstream EBITDA and a focused $2.4B growth plan in natural gas/NGL services create a steady distribution stream to MPC. Predictable MPLX cash flows diversify earnings, support dividends/CapEx, and reduce MPC's pure refining cyclicality over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage

Leverage near 1.98 (2025) roughly doubles the 2022 level, reducing balance-sheet flexibility in a cyclical refining industry. Higher debt limits the company's ability to absorb prolonged margin weakness, constrains investment optionality, and increases refinancing and covenant vulnerability during downturns.

Normalized, lower margins & shrinking revenue

Material normalization from peak-cycle profits—sharp margin compression and steep revenue decline—means less structural cash buffer. A weaker, shrinking top line increases sensitivity to feedstock and demand shocks, reducing sustained free-cash-flow resilience and heightening cyclicality risk.

Labor negotiation risk with USW

Ongoing union negotiations create persistent execution and cost risk given refinery labor intensity. Protracted talks can disrupt throughput, delay turnarounds, or increase labor costs, jeopardizing project schedules and margins—a durable operational vulnerability for an integrated refiner.

Marathon Petroleum Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

Marathon Petroleum generates revenue primarily through its refining and marketing operations. The company earns money by processing crude oil into various refined products at its refineries, which are then sold to wholesale and retail customers. Key revenue streams include the sale of gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products, as well as transportation and storage services through its extensive pipeline network. Additionally, MPC benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures, which enhance its operational efficiency and market reach. The company's ability to optimize refining margins and manage costs effectively also plays a significant role in its overall profitability.

Marathon Petroleum Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability and cash generation remain solid, but results have clearly normalized from 2022–2023 highs: margins and revenue have fallen meaningfully, and higher leverage (debt-to-equity rising to ~1.98 by 2025) reduces flexibility in a cyclical refining environment. Free cash flow is still meaningful (~$4.8B in 2025) but cash conversion and debt coverage are only moderate.

Income Statement

Profitability has normalized meaningfully since the 2022 peak: net margin fell from ~8.2% (2022) to ~3.1% (2025), and gross margin declined from ~12.7% to ~7.4%, indicating a weaker refining margin environment. That said, the company remains solidly profitable in 2024–2025 with positive operating and EBITDA margins, and earnings are far stronger than the 2020 downturn. The top line has been shrinking for several years (revenue growth negative from 2023–2025, including -54% in 2025), which is a key headwind and adds cyclicality risk to the outlook.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has increased: debt-to-equity moved from ~1.01 (2022) to ~1.98 (2025) as debt rose while equity declined, which reduces balance-sheet flexibility in a cyclical business. Returns on equity remain healthy (about 23% in 2025), but are down sharply versus 2022–2023 levels, consistent with the earnings step-down. Overall, the balance sheet is workable but more levered than it was a few years ago, raising risk if industry conditions weaken.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains positive with operating cash flow of ~$8.3B and free cash flow of ~$4.8B in 2025, and free cash flow growth rebounded strongly in 2025 versus 2024. However, cash conversion is mixed: free cash flow is below net income in recent periods (about 58% in 2025), and operating cash flow relative to debt is moderate (coverage around ~0.42 in 2024–2025). Versus the very strong 2022–2023 cash flow levels, current cash flow is lower, though still supportive of ongoing capital needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	132.54B	138.86B	148.38B	177.45B	119.98B
Gross Profit	9.85B	9.29B	16.51B	22.57B	6.61B
EBITDA	11.54B	10.60B	18.56B	24.88B	7.45B
Net Income	4.05B	3.44B	9.68B	14.52B	9.74B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	85.56B	78.86B	85.99B	89.90B	85.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	3.67B	3.21B	10.22B	11.77B	10.84B
Total Debt	34.36B	28.76B	28.50B	27.91B	26.90B
Total Liabilities	61.47B	54.35B	54.59B	54.82B	51.79B
Stockholders Equity	17.31B	17.75B	24.40B	27.71B	26.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.77B	6.13B	12.23B	13.94B	2.90B
Operating Cash Flow	8.25B	8.66B	14.12B	16.36B	4.36B
Investing Cash Flow	-6.27B	1.53B	-3.10B	623.00M	14.80B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.52B	-12.43B	-14.21B	-13.65B	-14.42B

Marathon Petroleum Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 209.82
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MPC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 209.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 197.65, above the 50-day MA of 181.65, and above the 200-day MA of 177.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 5.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MPC.

Marathon Petroleum Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PSX	72 Outperform	$64.19B	14.31	15.55%	3.68%	-10.56%	-53.06%
VLO	69 Neutral	$64.26B	27.01	9.69%	2.74%	-8.48%	-56.92%
SUN	69 Neutral	$9.81B	27.96	5.60%	6.88%	-5.18%	-33.14%
MPC	68 Neutral	$61.84B	15.00	23.06%	2.24%	-6.37%	-25.83%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$15.17B	7.61	4.09%	5.20%	3.87%	-62.32%
DINO	62 Neutral	$9.70B	16.25	6.21%	4.26%	-9.55%	27.65%
PBF	54 Neutral	$4.60B	-26.88	-2.92%	4.14%	-15.35%	-81.94%

Marathon Petroleum Corporate Events

Marathon Petroleum Appoints New Executive Vice President CFO

On December 18, 2025, Marathon Petroleum announced that Maria A. Khoury will join the company as executive vice president and chief financial officer, effective January 19, 2026, succeeding John J. Quaid, who will remain in a non-executive role during a transition period. Khoury, a seasoned global finance executive with 25 years of experience at Danaher, GE Healthcare, GE Oil & Gas, GE Corporate, GE Capital Treasury and Cargill, will become Marathon’s principal financial officer, with an $800,000 base salary, a target annual cash bonus equal to her base pay, a $2.4 million 2026 long-term incentive target, standard company benefits, and a one-time $275,000 restricted stock unit grant to replace forfeited equity from her current employer, signaling a deliberate effort by Marathon to bolster its executive bench and financial leadership as it pursues its strategic and capital allocation objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (MPC) stock is a Hold with a $196.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Marathon Petroleum stock, see the MPC Stock Forecast page.