Medallion Financial (MFIN)
NASDAQ:MFIN
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Medallion Financial
(NASDAQ:MFIN)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$10.50
▲(10.06% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/30/26
The score is driven mainly by solid financial quality (strong recent cash generation and improving leverage) alongside constructive technical momentum. Valuation is a major positive with a very low P/E and high dividend yield, but the rating is tempered by sharp TTM revenue contraction and mixed corporate-event risk, particularly the SBA debenture default notice.
Positive Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Medallion’s TTM operating cash flow (~$131M) covering net income ~2.7x demonstrates durable earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This cash flow supports loan originations, scheduled debt service, dividends and buybacks, reducing reliance on short-term market funding over cycles.
Negative Factors
Material TTM revenue contraction
A roughly 35% TTM revenue decline is a structural headwind that reduces scale advantages and pressurizes future earning power. Persistently lower revenue can force higher-risk underwriting or constrain reinvestment, making sustainable margin and ROE recovery more challenging.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong operating cash generation
Medallion’s TTM operating cash flow (~$131M) covering net income ~2.7x demonstrates durable earnings quality and internal funding capacity. This cash flow supports loan originations, scheduled debt service, dividends and buybacks, reducing reliance on short-term market funding over cycles.
Read all positive factors
Medallion Financial (MFIN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$230.63M
Dividend Yield4.44%
Average Volume (3M)43.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.7
Beta (1Y)0.73
Revenue Growth9.67%
EPS Growth-6.40%
CountryUS
Employees174
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.57
Shares Outstanding23,849,966
10 Day Avg. Volume47,971
30 Day Avg. Volume43,203
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.29
Price to Book (P/B)0.57
Price to Sales (P/S)0.66
P/FCF Ratio1.86
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.19
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.68
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.00Price Target Upside25.79% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Medallion Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Medallion Financial Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a finance company in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Recreation Lending, Home Improvement Lending, Commercial Lending, and Medallion Lending. It ...
How the Company Makes Money
Medallion Financial primarily makes money by originating and holding loans and earning spread-based income. The core revenue driver is net interest income: the interest it collects from borrowers on consumer and commercial loans minus the interest...
Medallion Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive tone driven by record annual results, growth in net interest income, increased loan balances and originations, strong equity gains, improved book values, and successful diversification (strategic partnerships). However, the quarter also showed notable credit and expense headwinds: a sizable provision build, elevated recreation net charge-offs and delinquency, higher operating expenses, and potential margin pressure from rate moderation. Management presented clear actions (talent additions, capital availability, data-driven underwriting) and expects disciplined mid-teens growth in key lines, suggesting confidence in resolving near-term credit and margin dynamics while pursuing sustainable growth.Positive Updates
Record Year and Top-Line Growth
2025 marked a record year with increases in net interest income, net income, originations, and portfolio size. Total originations were $421,000,000 for the quarter and $1,500,000,000 for the full year. Total loans reached $2,567,000,000, up 3% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Elevated Provision for Credit Losses
Provision for credit losses spiked to $27,700,000 in Q4 (up from $18,600,000 in 3Q and $20,600,000 in prior-year quarter). Drivers included recharacterization of loans from held-for-sale to held-for-investment, allowance coverage step-up (from ~5.0% to 5.32%), and additional commercial loan provisions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Year and Top-Line Growth
2025 marked a record year with increases in net interest income, net income, originations, and portfolio size. Total originations were $421,000,000 for the quarter and $1,500,000,000 for the full year. Total loans reached $2,567,000,000, up 3% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 will emphasize disciplined, accretive growth — targeting mid‑teens growth across the loan book (with mid‑teens growth called out for home improvement) while scaling recreation and the fast‑growing strategic partnership channel — noting the company ended 2025 with $2.567B of total loans, Q4 originations of $421M (including a record $258.3M from strategic partnerships), January origination rates of ~14.5% for recreation and ~10% for home improvement, a Q4 net interest margin of 8.04% (FY 8.06%) that management said could dip below 8% if recreation pricing is reduced, and an expectation that net interest income growth will outpace rising non‑interest operating costs; they also said the elevated Q4 provision of $27.7M should not be a run‑rate item even as allowances grow with the book (recreation allowance 5.32% and 90+ day delinquencies 0.82%, home improvement allowance 2.41% and 90+ day delinquencies 0.16%), and confirmed continued capital returns (quarterly dividend $0.12/sh and ongoing buybacks).Medallion Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 338.61M | 353.31M | 291.79M | 254.51M | 198.43M | 179.21M |
| Gross Profit | 240.88M | 341.81M | 127.12M | 153.76M | 132.19M | 143.44M |
| EBITDA | 126.68M | 178.31M | 69.15M | 91.28M | 73.08M | 88.39M |
| Net Income | 39.50M | 43.04M | 35.88M | 55.08M | 43.84M | 54.11M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.95B | 2.96B | 2.87B | 2.59B | 2.26B | 1.87B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 96.30M | 261.75M | 101.17M | 106.87M | 81.66M | 106.25M |
| Total Debt | 265.35M | 316.28M | 288.59M | 253.06M | 229.93M | 231.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.44B | 2.45B | 2.43B | 2.18B | 1.89B | 1.52B |
| Stockholders Equity | 408.08M | 408.62M | 370.17M | 342.99M | 301.74M | 287.04M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 131.34M | 126.28M | 115.51M | 113.76M | 108.74M | 78.73M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 131.34M | 126.28M | 115.51M | 113.76M | 108.74M | 78.73M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -205.82M | -124.49M | -335.78M | -340.70M | -449.00M | -238.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 55.14M | 30.20M | 239.99M | 271.18M | 321.38M | 172.04M |
Medallion Financial Technical Analysis
Positive
9.54
Price Trends
9.04
Positive
9.41
Positive
9.62
Positive
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
60.28
Neutral
73.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MFIN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.54 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.42, above the 50-day MA of 9.04, and below the 200-day MA of 9.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MFIN.
Medallion Financial Risk Analysis
Medallion Financial disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Medallion Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Medallion Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $230.63M | 5.68 | 9.85% | 4.44% | 9.67% | -6.40% | |
69 Neutral | $334.07M | 6.90 | 13.16% | 2.99% | 10.51% | 53.17% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $213.51M | 10.65 | 6.34% | ― | 12.28% | 1.64% | |
59 Neutral | $241.96M | 14.70 | 4.63% | ― | -3.81% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $270.72M | -50.54 | -7.04% | ― | 405.40% | 96.15% | |
49 Neutral | $118.28M | -0.38 | -193.33% | ― | -1578.63% | -2350.69% |
* Financial Sector Average
MFIN
Medallion Financial
9.73
1.00
11.40%
CPSS
Consumer Portfolio Services
9.86
0.65
7.06%
RM
Regional Management
36.76
11.29
44.32%
LPRO
Open Lending
2.28
0.47
25.97%
SUIG
Sui Group Holdings
1.60
-0.20
-11.11%
OPRT
Oportun Financial
5.42
-0.87
-13.83%
Medallion Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Medallion Financial Completes $75 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28, 2026, Medallion Financial Corp. completed a $75 million private placement of senior unsecured notes to a group of institutional investors led by JP Morgan Investment Management Inc. The notes, which mature on May 1, 2031 and carry a f...
Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
SBA Default on Debentures Puts Medallion Financial Under Review
Negative
Apr 3, 2026
As of March 31, 2026, approximately 3% of Medallion Financial Corp.’s consolidated borrowings, totaling $73.5 million, consisted of SBA debentures issued to its subsidiary Medallion Capital, Inc., providing long-term, fixed-rate funding at r...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Medallion Financial Retires $31.25 Million in Notes
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Medallion Financial Corp. repaid at maturity the full $31.25 million aggregate principal amount of its privately placed notes. The retirement of this debt reduces the company’s outstanding obligations and may improve ba...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.