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Consumer Portfolio Services (CPSS)
NASDAQ:CPSS
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Consumer Portfolio Services (CPSS) AI Stock Analysis

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CPSS

Consumer Portfolio Services

(NASDAQ:CPSS)

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Neutral 60 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▲(7.87% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/25/26
The score is driven mainly by financial performance: strong cash generation and TTM revenue growth are meaningful positives, but margin compression and historically high leverage materially raise risk. Valuation is supportive with a modest P/E, while technicals are mixed/neutral. Recent corporate actions (record securitization and larger warehouse facility) improve funding flexibility and modestly lift the overall view.
Positive Factors
Securitization scale & track record
A long, high-quality securitization track record and a record-sized ABS deal demonstrate durable access to the asset-backed markets. Repeated triple-A placements support investor confidence, enabling steady funding of purchased receivables and scalability of originations over months.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage
Extremely elevated debt-to-equity materially amplifies refinancing and credit-cycle risk for a subprime auto lender. Small equity cushions make capital and earnings sensitive to rising delinquencies or losses, constraining capital flexibility and increasing systemic vulnerability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Securitization scale & track record
A long, high-quality securitization track record and a record-sized ABS deal demonstrate durable access to the asset-backed markets. Repeated triple-A placements support investor confidence, enabling steady funding of purchased receivables and scalability of originations over months.
Read all positive factors

Consumer Portfolio Services (CPSS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Consumer Portfolio Services Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc. operates as a specialty finance company in the United States. It is involved in the purchase and service of retail automobile contracts originated by franchised automobile dealers and select independent dealers in...
How the Company Makes Money
Consumer Portfolio Services makes money primarily by acquiring auto loan receivables and earning returns from the cash flows those receivables generate. Key revenue and earnings drivers typically include: (1) Interest income on finance receivables...

Consumer Portfolio Services Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple constructive developments: revenue and interest-income growth, material improvements in core pretax results when excluding nonrecurring fair-value marks, stronger liquidity and funding commitments (warehouse line and prime forward flow), portfolio growth, and improved operating efficiency and credit performance in recent vintages aided by a new AI-driven credit model. Headwinds include higher interest expense from increased securitization debt, muted recoveries driven by legacy 2022–2023 vintages, slightly higher charge-offs, and flat net income/EPS year-over-year. On balance, positive operational and funding momentum and improving vintage performance outweigh the near-term cost and legacy credit pressures.
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q4 revenues of $109.44M up from $105.3M (≈3.9% increase); full year 2025 revenues $434M, a 10% increase versus $393M in 2024.
Negative Updates
Rising Interest Expense and Higher Debt
Interest expense increased 13% in Q4 ($59M vs $53M) driven by a 15% increase in securitization debt to $2.986B, raising financing costs and pressuring margins.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q4 revenues of $109.44M up from $105.3M (≈3.9% increase); full year 2025 revenues $434M, a 10% increase versus $393M in 2024.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that 2026 should be a year of substantial growth and margin improvement, supported by a new $150M Capital One warehouse and a $900M prime forward-flow commitment (up to $50M/month or $600M/year; $900M over 18 months), with the portfolio “nearly $4B” (fair value portfolio $3.655B, +10% YoY) yielding 11.4% net of expected losses; they plan to grow originations and fundings by hiring sales reps, adding dealers, and boosting applications from 250k/month to 325k/month, leverage the Gen9 credit model (approvals +11%, fundings +~8.4%), and expect Assets Under Management growth (AUM rose ~8.24% YoY to ≈$3.7B) while driving OpEx efficiency (core OpEx $177M FY, core OpEx/managed portfolio 4.8% vs 5.6% prior; employee cost 2.4% of portfolio) and liquidity (cash + restricted cash $172.2M); credit goals include running off 2022–2023 paper to de minimis by year-end 2026 to lift recoveries (overall recoveries ~28–30% but by vintage Q4: 2022 20.5%, 2023 22.9%, 2024 36.3%, 2025 43.4%), sustaining strong credit metrics (DQ>30 days 14.77%, annualized net charge-offs 7.76%) and improving margins as rates ease (interest income on FV +16% YoY; FY revenue $434M, +10% YoY; FY pretax $28M; FY net income $19.3M; diluted EPS $0.80; securitization debt $2.986B, +15% YoY; shareholders’ equity $309.5M, book value ≈$13/share).

Consumer Portfolio Services Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong TTM revenue growth and robust operating/free cash flow support the business, but profitability has compressed sharply versus 2022–2023 and margins/operating results have been volatile. Historically very high debt-to-equity (~9–11x) is a major balance-sheet risk for a credit-cycle-sensitive lender.
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
78
Positive
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue439.93M427.97M393.51M352.01M329.71M267.81M
Gross Profit264.33M426.21M207.56M227.68M270.29M207.16M
EBITDA90.15M260.03M28.29M61.94M117.81M67.42M
Net Income20.17M19.32M19.20M45.34M85.98M47.52M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.05B3.86B3.50B2.91B2.76B2.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments6.94M6.32M137.40M125.43M162.79M176.55M
Total Debt3.69B3.51B3.16B2.57B2.48B1.95B
Total Liabilities3.74B3.55B3.21B2.63B2.53B1.99B
Stockholders Equity314.35M309.54M292.77M274.67M228.39M170.21M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow297.88M288.29M233.32M237.42M213.78M196.22M
Operating Cash Flow298.91M289.00M233.75M237.98M215.93M198.19M
Investing Cash Flow-646.68M-590.12M-769.71M-359.53M-713.90M-115.36M
Financing Cash Flow349.70M335.93M547.92M84.19M484.21M-50.44M

Consumer Portfolio Services Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price9.27
Price Trends
50DMA
9.45
Negative
100DMA
9.07
Positive
200DMA
8.81
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
<0.01
Negative
RSI
48.10
Neutral
STOCH
53.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CPSS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.33, below the 50-day MA of 9.45, and above the 200-day MA of 8.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CPSS.

Consumer Portfolio Services Risk Analysis

Consumer Portfolio Services disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Consumer Portfolio Services reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Consumer Portfolio Services Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
73
Outperform
$5.95B13.8829.39%4.52%72.48%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
66
Neutral
$7.23B9.4123.07%7.01%6.93%19.96%
63
Neutral
$297.15M6.4813.24%2.88%9.63%40.75%
61
Neutral
$254.30M14.584.63%-3.81%
60
Neutral
$202.23M10.136.54%12.28%1.64%
56
Neutral
$371.53M-69.93-7.04%405.40%96.15%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
CPSS
Consumer Portfolio Services
9.31
1.27
15.80%
CACC
Credit Acceptance
587.85
136.91
30.36%
RM
Regional Management
33.84
0.68
2.06%
OMF
OneMain Holdings
65.42
12.23
22.98%
LPRO
Open Lending
3.14
1.02
48.11%
OPRT
Oportun Financial
6.01
-0.32
-5.06%

Consumer Portfolio Services Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Consumer Portfolio Services Completes Record Auto Receivables Securitization
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
Consumer Portfolio Services, Inc., an independent specialty finance company, provides indirect auto financing to borrowers with weaker or limited credit through contracts purchased from franchised dealerships and secured primarily by late-model us...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Consumer Portfolio Services Expands Revolving Credit Facility Capacity
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 9, 2026, Consumer Portfolio Services renewed its two-year revolving credit agreement with Citibank, N.A. and its subordinate lender, while increasing the warehouse credit facility&#8217;s capacity from $335 million to $508 million. The com...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Consumer Portfolio Services Highlights AI-Driven Subprime Lending Strategy
Positive
May 20, 2026
Consumer Portfolio Services released a March 2026 investor presentation detailing its business model, portfolio metrics and market positioning in the U.S. subprime auto lending space, where it provides indirect financing to dealers in 47 states an...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 25, 2026