Open Lending (LPRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $205.65M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 569.02K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.85
• Revenue Growth: -82.33%
• EPS Growth: -3365.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 205
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Credit Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 118,189,445
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 624,170
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 569,024
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 9.11
• Price to Sales (P/S): 29.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 40.81
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.78
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 9.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -25.79
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.16
• 1Y Price Target: $3.17
• Price Target Upside: 82.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $2.00 ▲(14.94% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large losses and deteriorating cash generation). Technicals are supportive with strong upside momentum, but overbought signals add near-term risk. Valuation is difficult to support due to negative earnings and no dividend, while the earnings call was mixed—positive adjusted EBITDA and product expansion offset by declining loan volumes and ongoing net losses.

Positive Factors

Recurring‑revenue product launch

ApexOne Auto creates a subscription-based revenue stream with minimum application volumes, diversifying reliance on transaction fees. Over time, recurring revenue improves revenue predictability, customer stickiness and margin stability versus pure per‑loan fee exposure.

Sustained adjusted EBITDA positivity

Consecutive positive adjusted EBITDA indicates improving core operating performance and potential for operational leverage. Sustained adjusted profitability can fund product investments, support partnerships, and signal progress toward overall profitability despite GAAP losses.

Reduced concentration of risky loans

Material reduction in high‑risk loan concentration lowers tail risk and potential credit volatility. A healthier mix of originations supports more stable loss rates and strengthens underwriting credibility, improving long‑term earnings quality and partner confidence.

Negative Factors

Deep structural unprofitability

Extremely negative margins point to structural issues in pricing, claims or cost absorption that undermine the fee model. Such steep losses erode equity, constrain reinvestment, and mean that operational improvements or product wins must be large and sustained to restore profitability.

Severe cash flow deterioration

A dramatic decline in free cash flow weakens the firm's ability to fund operations, R&D and creditor commitments without external capital. Persistent cash generation shortfalls increase refinancing risk, could force dilution or cutbacks, and limit strategic flexibility long term.

Declining core loan volumes

Lower certified loan volumes reduce fee revenue and weaken unit economics for a business heavily dependent on per‑loan fees. Continued volume pressure from tighter lending standards and macro affordability risks can limit revenue growth and strain margin recovery over the medium term.

Open Lending Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Open Lending Corporation provides lending enablement and risk analytics solutions to credit unions, regional banks, and non-bank auto finance companies and captive finance companies of original equipment manufacturers in the United States. It offers Lenders Protection Program (LPP), which is a Software as a Service platform that facilitates loan decision making and automated underwriting by third-party lenders and the issuance of credit default insurance through third-party insurance providers. The company's LPP products include loan analytics, risk-based loan pricing, risk modeling, and automated decision technology for automotive lenders. Open Lending Corporation was founded in 2000 and is based in Austin, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Open Lending generates revenue primarily through a fee-based model. The company earns fees for each loan facilitated through its platform, which can include transaction fees charged to lenders and service fees from automotive dealerships that utilize its lending solutions. Additionally, Open Lending may earn revenue from partnerships with financial institutions and automotive manufacturers that integrate its technology into their financing processes. The company also benefits from growing demand for automotive loans, as its services are designed to improve access to credit for consumers, thereby increasing the volume of loans processed through its system.

Open Lending Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Weak fundamentals: deeply negative profitability (TTM gross margin -36.75%, net margin -887.15%) and sharply declining free cash flow growth (-567.47%). Balance sheet leverage is currently low (debt-to-equity 0.14), but returns to shareholders are very poor (ROE -194.20%).

Income Statement

Open Lending's income statement reveals significant challenges. The TTM data shows a negative gross profit margin of -36.75% and a net profit margin of -887.15%, indicating substantial losses. Revenue growth is positive at 4.26%, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are deeply negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Historical data shows a declining trend in revenue and profitability, with previous periods also experiencing negative growth rates and margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet indicates a mixed financial position. The TTM debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.14, suggesting manageable leverage compared to the previous year's high of 1.84. However, the return on equity is significantly negative at -194.20%, highlighting poor returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 25.32%, indicating a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows concerning trends. The TTM free cash flow growth rate is -567.47%, indicating a sharp decline in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting cash flow issues. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly positive at 1.08, suggesting some ability to cover net losses with free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	16.95M	24.02M	117.46M	179.59M	215.66M	108.89M
Gross Profit	-6.23M	169.00K	95.18M	159.63M	197.03M	99.11M
EBITDA	-74.31M	-51.61M	41.30M	100.29M	197.55M	-77.62M
Net Income	-150.35M	-135.01M	22.07M	66.62M	146.08M	-97.56M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	287.65M	296.37M	374.04M	379.63M	318.82M	294.01M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	222.13M	243.16M	240.21M	204.45M	116.45M	101.51M
Total Debt	184.20M	143.77M	148.13M	152.08M	151.40M	163.25M
Total Liabilities	214.83M	218.28M	168.46M	166.81M	159.84M	267.39M
Stockholders Equity	72.83M	78.09M	205.58M	212.82M	158.98M	26.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-13.31M	17.43M	80.48M	106.81M	93.17M	23.44M
Operating Cash Flow	-12.02M	17.60M	82.66M	107.43M	95.16M	24.64M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.07M	-3.90M	-2.18M	-624.00K	-1.99M	-1.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-13.13M	-6.45M	-42.33M	-17.80M	-77.81M	70.81M

Open Lending Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPRO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.92, below the 50-day MA of 1.80, and below the 200-day MA of 1.95, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LPRO.

Open Lending Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MFIN	74 Outperform	$241.41M	6.07	10.79%	4.44%	15.52%	2.05%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
OPRT	65 Neutral	$240.94M	8.12	8.59%	―	-5.29%	―
RM	64 Neutral	$391.91M	9.07	11.43%	2.99%	9.63%	77.14%
CPSS	59 Neutral	$192.46M	10.96	6.58%	―	16.94%	-10.46%
ANTA	59 Neutral	$210.97M	―	―	―	―	―
LPRO	49 Neutral	$205.65M	-1.33	-102.53%	―	-82.33%	-3365.80%

Open Lending Corporate Events

Open Lending Finalizes Separation Agreement with Former CRO

Open Lending Corporation terminated the employment of its former Chief Revenue Officer, Matthew R. Roe, effective July 29, 2025. The company subsequently entered into a separation and release agreement with Mr. Roe on December 2, 2025, which includes severance and additional payments to cover COBRA premiums, alongside a general release of claims and restrictive covenants.

The most recent analyst rating on (LPRO) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Open Lending stock, see the LPRO Stock Forecast page.

Open Lending Appoints Abhijit Chaudhary as New Director

On November 19, 2025, Gene Yoon resigned from his position as a director of Open Lending Corporation, with no disagreements cited. Abhijit Chaudhary was appointed as his replacement effective November 21, 2025, bringing over two decades of expertise in product innovation and growth in financial services. Chaudhary’s appointment is expected to enhance the company’s board with his experience in scaling disruptive technology and financial services businesses, aligning with Open Lending’s vision to expand access to credit and drive long-term growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (LPRO) stock is a Hold with a $1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Open Lending stock, see the LPRO Stock Forecast page.