Open Lending Corporation (LPRO)
NASDAQ:LPRO
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Open Lending
(NASDAQ:LPRO)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-29.08% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/17/26
The score is held back primarily by uneven financial performance (recent losses and 2025 cash burn) and weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a strengthened balance sheet and a constructive 2026 outlook from the earnings call (higher certified loans and materially higher adjusted EBITDA), with governance developments providing a smaller additional positive.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Open Lending reduced leverage and ended Q4 with large unrestricted cash after a $50M term-loan paydown, materially improving financial flexibility. This stronger capital base lowers refinancing risk, funds investments or buybacks, and provides runway to absorb credit cycles over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Cash flow variability
Operating cash flow turned negative in 2025 (−$3.2M), driven by timing of profit-share receipts and a one-time payment. Sustained cash burn would erode liquidity, constrain investments or buybacks, and force reliance on debt or equity, raising execution risk over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Open Lending reduced leverage and ended Q4 with large unrestricted cash after a $50M term-loan paydown, materially improving financial flexibility. This stronger capital base lowers refinancing risk, funds investments or buybacks, and provides runway to absorb credit cycles over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Open Lending (LPRO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$165.92M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)569.02K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.79
Revenue Growth-82.33%
EPS Growth-3365.80%
CountryUS
Employees205
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.01
Shares Outstanding117,676,160
10 Day Avg. Volume624,170
30 Day Avg. Volume569,024
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.45
Price to Book (P/B)2.45
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio-56.56
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.19
Enterprise Value/Ebitda34.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$2.63Price Target Upside86.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$100.79M
Open Lending Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Open Lending Corporation provides lending enablement and risk analytics solutions to credit unions, regional banks, and non-bank auto finance companies and captive finance companies of original equipment manufacturers in the United States. It offe...
How the Company Makes Money
Open Lending primarily makes money through its Lenders Protection program, which is typically embedded in near-prime auto loan originations by participating lenders. When a lender originates a loan through the program, Open Lending earns fees tied...
Open Lending Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a meaningful stabilization and recovery compared with the prior-year period: revenue and adjusted EBITDA returned to positive territory, credit performance materially improved (vintage delinquencies down ~200 bps), balance sheet strengthened via $50M debt paydown and large cash balances, and new product/channel initiatives (Apex One Auto, OEM 3) provide clear growth levers. Near-term headwinds included a sizable Q4 drop in certified loans (~25.9% YoY) driven by temporary pricing changes and tighter underwriting, a negative operating cash flow headline (offset when excluding a one-time payment), and continued uncertainty on timing of profit-share loss recognition. On balance, management emphasized disciplined underwriting, model enhancements, and a pathway to compound growth through 2026 with guidance for higher certified loans and materially higher adjusted EBITDA, indicating that the positives outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Revenue and Profitability Recovery
Full-year 2025 total revenue of $93.2M and adjusted EBITDA of $15.6M; Q4 2025 revenue of $19.3M and adjusted EBITDA of $2.8M, a material improvement versus prior-year periods that included large negative change-in-estimate adjustments.
Negative Updates
Q4 Certified Loan Decline
Certified loans in Q4 2025 were 19,308 versus 26,065 in Q4 2024, a decline of approximately 25.9% year-over-year, driven by a temporary conversion headwind from pricing adjustments and tighter underwriting.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Profitability Recovery
Full-year 2025 total revenue of $93.2M and adjusted EBITDA of $15.6M; Q4 2025 revenue of $19.3M and adjusted EBITDA of $2.8M, a material improvement versus prior-year periods that included large negative change-in-estimate adjustments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Open Lending guided to 100,000–110,000 certified loans for full‑year 2026 (21,000–22,000 expected in Q1) and adjusted EBITDA of $25–$29 million, which at the midpoint implies roughly an 8% increase in CERTs versus 2025 (2025: 97,348 certified loans; full‑year revenue $93.2M; adjusted EBITDA $15.6M). Management said growth should compound each quarter and be back‑loaded, citing Q4 2025 results of 19,308 CERTs (Q4 revenue $19.3M; Q4 adjusted EBITDA $2.8M), average CERTs of 353 per business day since Feb 1 versus 293 during the impacted period, application flow up ~20% year‑over‑year through February, and improved vintage performance (2025 vintage 12‑month >60‑day delinquency ~200 bps lower than 2023/2024). They expect profit‑share economics initially booked at an implied ~72.5% loss ratio to ultimately perform in the mid‑60s and pointed to growth drivers—Apex One pilot apps in the mid‑five figures with a doubled pipeline, OEM3 ramp (+76% Q4/Q3)—while pursuing prudent capital moves (Q4 $50M term‑loan paydown saving ≈$575k quarterly interest; ~564k shares repurchased in Q4 with ~$20.1M repurchase capacity remaining).Open Lending Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 93.22M | 24.02M | 117.46M | 179.59M | 215.66M |
| Gross Profit | 70.40M | 169.00K | 95.18M | 159.63M | 197.03M |
| EBITDA | 8.40M | -51.61M | 41.30M | 100.29M | 197.55M |
| Net Income | -4.24M | -135.01M | 22.07M | 66.62M | 146.08M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 236.68M | 296.37M | 374.04M | 379.63M | 318.82M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 176.61M | 243.16M | 240.21M | 204.45M | 116.45M |
| Total Debt | 88.05M | 143.77M | 148.13M | 152.08M | 151.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 161.72M | 218.28M | 168.46M | 166.81M | 159.84M |
| Stockholders Equity | 74.96M | 78.09M | 205.58M | 212.82M | 158.98M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -3.25M | 17.43M | 80.48M | 106.81M | 93.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -3.19M | 17.60M | 82.66M | 107.43M | 95.16M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.03M | -3.90M | -2.18M | -624.00K | -1.99M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -61.48M | -6.45M | -42.33M | -17.80M | -77.81M |
Open Lending Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.41
Price Trends
1.44
Negative
1.60
Negative
1.86
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
55.35
Neutral
63.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPRO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.32, below the 50-day MA of 1.44, and below the 200-day MA of 1.86, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LPRO.
Open Lending Risk Analysis
Open Lending disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Open Lending reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Open Lending Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $208.95M | 5.44 | 11.82% | 4.44% | 15.52% | 2.05% | |
65 Neutral | $172.34M | 10.57 | 6.34% | ― | 16.94% | -10.46% | |
64 Neutral | $216.72M | 10.05 | 6.66% | ― | -5.29% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $333.50M | 8.66 | 12.12% | 2.99% | 9.63% | 77.14% | |
59 Neutral | $161.24M | 11.11 | ― | ― | ― | ― | |
52 Neutral | $165.92M | -43.40 | -102.53% | ― | -82.33% | -3365.80% |
* Financial Sector Average
LPRO
Open Lending
1.41
0.54
62.07%
CPSS
Consumer Portfolio Services
7.92
-0.71
-8.23%
MFIN
Medallion Financial
8.88
1.17
15.22%
RM
Regional Management
35.49
6.70
23.28%
OPRT
Oportun Financial
4.87
0.44
9.93%
ANTA
Antalpha Platform Holding Company
6.81
-5.03
-42.48%
Open Lending Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Open Lending Reaches Activist Cooperation, Plans Board Changes
Positive
Mar 6, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Open Lending Corporation entered into a cooperation agreement with Palogic Value Management and related entities, under which the company will add Palogic-backed nominee William Dabbs Cavin to its slate for election as a Class II...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.