tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Macerich Company (MAC)
NYSE:MAC

Macerich (MAC) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
1,078 Followers

Top Page

MAC

Macerich

(NYSE:MAC)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Neutral 55 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▼(-6.01% Downside)
Macerich's overall stock score reflects a mix of challenges and opportunities. The most significant factor is the company's financial performance, which is hindered by profitability issues and high leverage. However, strong leasing activity and strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call and corporate events provide a positive outlook. Technical analysis and valuation metrics present mixed signals, with potential overbought conditions and a negative P/E ratio being concerns.
Positive Factors
Leasing Activity
Strong leasing activity indicates robust demand for Macerich's properties, enhancing long-term revenue potential and occupancy rates.
Path Forward Plan
The Path Forward Plan's focus on reducing leverage and strategic asset sales strengthens financial stability and positions Macerich for sustainable growth.
Record Leasing at Nareit Conference
Record leasing activity and strategic initiatives demonstrate Macerich's ability to attract tenants, supporting long-term revenue growth and market position.
Negative Factors
Profitability Issues
Ongoing profitability issues, as indicated by a negative net profit margin, challenge Macerich's ability to generate sustainable earnings and return on equity.
High Leverage
High leverage poses a risk to financial stability, potentially limiting Macerich's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns.
Forever 21 Liquidation Impact
The impact of Forever 21's liquidation on occupancy highlights vulnerabilities in tenant mix, affecting short-term occupancy and revenue stability.

Macerich (MAC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Macerich Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMacerich is a fully integrated, self-managed and self-administered real estate investment trust, which focuses on the acquisition, leasing, management, development and redevelopment of regional malls throughout the United States. Macerich currently owns 51 million square feet of real estate consisting primarily of interests in 47 regional shopping centers. Macerich specializes in successful retail properties in many of the country's most attractive, densely populated markets with significant presence in the West Coast, Arizona, Chicago and the Metro New York to Washington, DC corridor. A recognized leader in sustainability, Macerich has achieved the #1 GRESB ranking in the North American Retail Sector for five straight years (2015 - 2019).
How the Company Makes MoneyMacerich generates revenue primarily through leasing retail space to a variety of tenants, including national and regional retailers, restaurants, and entertainment venues. The company collects rental income, which is its primary revenue stream, and may also receive percentage rent, where tenants pay a portion of their sales in addition to base rent. Other revenue sources include management fees from properties it manages for third parties, income from development projects, and ancillary services such as advertising and promotional partnerships. Significant partnerships with major brands and a focus on enhancing customer experiences help drive foot traffic, ultimately benefiting its tenants and Macerich's earnings.

Macerich Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Segment
Revenue by Segment
Chart Insights
Data provided by:The Fly

Macerich Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:May 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational execution on leasing and portfolio re-positioning with multiple record and above‑plan metrics (record leasing volume, SNO growth, occupancy gains, anchor commitments and meaningful dispositions). Management has materially improved liquidity and reduced leverage a full turn while advancing a clear pipeline that should drive larger NOI/FFO contributions in 2027–2028. Key risks remain: NOI growth in 2025 was modest, leverage is still elevated (7.78x), a loan (29th Street) is in default, physical occupancy lags leased occupancy, and realization of remaining dispositions and the 350 uncommitted deals are execution risks. Overall, the positive operational momentum and tangible pipeline progress outweigh the near-term balance sheet and timing challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Leasing Volume
Signed 7.1 million square feet of new and renewal leases for full year 2025, an 85% increase vs. 2024 and a new company record; 30% of the 7.1M sq ft were new lease signings.
Leasing Progress vs. Plan
Leasing speedometer at 76% revenue completion (exceeding 2025 year-end target of 70%) and tracking to a mid-2026 target of 85%; of ~1,000 targeted new deals, 650 are open/executed/in documentation, leaving 350 uncommitted (1.6M sq ft, 150 in LOI).
Signed-Not-Open (SNO) Pipeline
Signed-not-open pipeline ~ $107 million (exceeding $100M year-end target); total cumulative SNO opportunity ~ $140M relative to 2024, with estimated incremental annual contribution of ~$30M in 2026, $40–45M in 2027 and $45–50M in 2028.
Anchor Initiative Fully Committed
All 30 targeted anchor/big-box replacements are committed (2.9M sq ft), expected to generate ~ $750M in annual tenant sales and drive traffic and in-line leasing.
Disposition Progress
Completed ~$1.3 billion of mall and outparcel sales toward $2.0 billion target; identified an additional $200–300M of assets for sale/giveback and $15M+ under contract with $50M+ in negotiations.
Portfolio Sales & Performance
Portfolio sales per square foot were $881 at Q4 (up $14 QoQ); go-forward portfolio sales $921/sq ft; traffic was flat year-over-year for 2025, while select assets saw meaningful uplifts (e.g., Tysons traffic +16% in Q4).
Occupancy and Leasing Spreads
Occupancy 94% at Q4 (up 60 bps QoQ); go-forward occupancy 94.9% (up 60 bps QoQ); trailing 12-month leasing spreads 6.7% (up 80 bps QoQ) — 17 consecutive quarters of positive spreads.
New Store Openings & Concept Wins
Opened 416k sq ft in Q4 and 1.3M sq ft for 2025; opened first DICK'S House of Sport (Freehold) which outperformed expectations and drove mall traffic (~18% of mall traffic at Freehold since opening); 9 DICK'S commitments in pipeline with additional openings planned.
Liquidity and Balance Sheet Actions
Liquity approximately $990M including $650M revolver capacity; closed a $200M loan extension on South Plains through Nov 2029 at ~4.2%; paid down/ addressed 2025 maturities and a substantial portion of 2026 maturities.
Reported FFO and One-Time Items
Adjusted FFO for Q4 ~ $129M or $0.48 per share; one-time legal settlement income ~$16.1M partially offset by $8.4M incremental corporate bonus expense (net $0.03/share impact).
Negative Updates
NOI Growth Below Long-Term Plan
Go-Forward portfolio NOI rose just 1.7% in Q4 YoY and 1.8% for full year 2025, below the Path-Forward plan midpoint CAGR of ~5.2% for 2025–2028; 2026 growth expected to be back-end weighted (~3% with second-half inflection).
Leverage Still Elevated
Net debt to EBITDA was 7.78x at Q4 (a full turn improvement from plan outset) but remains elevated with management targeting low- to mid-6x over the next couple of years.
Remaining Disposition Work
Approximately $700M of dispositions remain to hit the $2B target (company completed $1.3B); outparcel/land pipeline requires lender coordination, entitlements and is weighted toward 2026, slowing realization.
Asset-Specific Credit Risk: 29th Street Loan
29th Street loan (~$76M company pro rata) is in default after maturity and is under negotiation with the lender — represents a near-term balance sheet uncertainty.
Physical Occupancy Lagging Leased Occupancy
Leased occupancy at 94.9% but physical occupancy closer to 91%, indicating downtime for tenant build-outs and potential short-term revenue gaps until rent commencement.
Reliance on Nonrecurring Items in FFO
Q4 adjusted FFO benefited from a nonrecurring legal settlement (~$16.1M); management noted this is a one-off and not part of the go-forward portfolio.
Execution Risk on Remaining New Deals
350 uncommitted new deals remain (1.6M sq ft) — successful execution is required to realize the SNO contribution and 2028 targets; RCD (rent commencement dates) coordination is highlighted as a material operational focus.
Slow Timing on Outparcel/Land Sales
Sales of outparcels/land depend on unencumbering, entitlements and lender coordination; management acknowledged this causes timing delays despite market appetite.
Company Guidance
The company reiterated its Path-Forward targets and timing: an updated Path‑Forward 3.0 at REIT Week in June and a return to formal earnings guidance in 2027, with a mid‑2026 leasing inflection driven by SNO contribution estimated at ~$30M in 2026 (back‑end weighted), $40–45M in 2027 and $45–50M in 2028. Key operational and leasing metrics include 7.1M sq ft of new/renewal leases in 2025 (85% above 2024), a leasing speedometer at 76% (above the 2025 target of 70%, on track to 85% mid‑2026), ~1,000 new deals tracked with 650 open/executed/in documentation and 350 uncommitted (1.6M sq ft, 150 in LOI), a signed‑not‑open (SNO) pipeline of ~$107M (vs $100M target) and 30 anchors fully committed (2.9M sq ft, 5 open/5 under construction/11 executed/9 leases out; ~ $750M annual tenant sales). Portfolio and finance guidance highlights: go‑forward portfolio NOI +1.7% Q4 y/y (+1.8% full‑year 2025), trailing 12‑month leasing spreads 6.7% (+80 bps q/q), occupancy 94% (Q4) and go‑forward occupancy 94.9% (+60 bps q/q), go‑forward sales $921/sq ft (total portfolio $881/sq ft), 416k sq ft opened in Q4 (1.3M in 2025), 80% of 2026 expirations committed with 16% in LOI, Q4 adjusted FFO ~$129M or $0.48/sh, liquidity ~ $990M (including $650M revolver), net debt/EBITDA 7.78x (down ~1.0x since plan start; target low‑to‑mid‑6x), $1.3B of $2.0B disposition goal completed with $200–300M more identified (to $1.5–1.6B) and $400–450M of outparcel/land remaining ( ~$15M under contract, >$50M in negotiation), a $200M South Plains loan extended to Nov‑2029 at ~4.2%, and a $76M pro‑rata loan on 29th Street currently in default.

Macerich Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Macerich's financial performance is challenged by a negative net profit margin of -37.97% despite revenue growth. The balance sheet shows high leverage, though recent improvements are noted. Cash flow is a relative strength with a strong free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.13, but historical volatility is a concern.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Macerich's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced revenue growth, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 3.33%. However, profitability remains a concern as indicated by the negative net profit margin of -37.97% in the TTM period. The gross profit margin is relatively healthy at 64.60%, but the negative net income highlights ongoing challenges in achieving profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved over the years, indicating some operational efficiency gains.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reflects a high level of leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.72 in 2020, which has improved to 0.0 in the TTM period, suggesting a reduction in debt levels or an increase in equity. However, the return on equity remains negative at -14.82% in the TTM period, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on its equity base. The equity ratio is not directly provided but the high debt levels pose a risk to financial stability.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows some positive trends, with a free cash flow growth rate of 17.92% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is not provided, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 1.13, indicating that the company is generating cash flow in excess of its net income, which is a positive sign. However, the historical volatility in free cash flow growth rates suggests potential fluctuations in cash generation capability.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.01B918.20M884.07M859.16M847.44M
Gross Profit967.36M487.94M489.18M468.81M466.55M
EBITDA1.04B326.90M190.72M454.96M540.19M
Net Income-197.15M-194.12M-274.06M-66.07M14.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.52B8.57B7.51B8.09B8.35B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments43.01M89.86M94.94M100.32M112.45M
Total Debt0.005.06B4.31B4.50B4.61B
Total Liabilities1.52B5.72B4.99B5.14B5.17B
Stockholders Equity0.002.76B2.45B2.87B3.05B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow0.00283.44M295.50M337.51M286.37M
Operating Cash Flow0.00283.44M295.50M337.51M286.37M
Investing Cash Flow0.0019.79M52.54M-1.40M234.97M
Financing Cash Flow0.00-316.05M-338.89M-321.94M-837.02M

Macerich Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price19.15
Price Trends
50DMA
18.52
Positive
100DMA
17.85
Positive
200DMA
17.11
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.13
Positive
RSI
55.19
Neutral
STOCH
56.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.70, above the 50-day MA of 18.52, and above the 200-day MA of 17.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.19 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAC.

Macerich Risk Analysis

Macerich disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Macerich reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Macerich Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$15.35B27.735.53%5.02%7.99%55.05%
72
Outperform
$9.15B22.5412.76%4.38%6.05%14.70%
69
Neutral
$5.27B43.014.83%3.52%10.58%37.97%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
61
Neutral
$5.25B18.589.35%4.55%3.67%
55
Neutral
$5.11B-67.29-18.43%3.61%8.06%74.26%
45
Neutral
$1.37M116.25%-1.01%504.95%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MAC
Macerich
19.77
0.17
0.87%
KIM
Kimco Realty
22.57
1.96
9.49%
KRG
Kite Realty Group
25.58
4.61
22.00%
FRT
Federal Realty
105.87
5.98
5.99%
WHLR
Wheeler Real Estate Investment
1.70
-3,305.80
-99.95%
PECO
Phillips Edison & Company
38.36
4.23
12.40%

Macerich Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Macerich Highlights Record Leasing at Nareit Conference
Positive
Dec 8, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Macerich presented a business update at the Nareit REITWorld conference in Dallas, highlighting its record-breaking leasing activity and strategic Path Forward Plan. The company reported strong leasing productivity with significant new and renewal space signed, and a substantial pipeline expected to generate $140 million in revenue by 2028. The Path Forward Plan aims to increase permanent occupancy by 500 basis points, with new anchors and a curated mix of brands to boost traffic and sales, positioning Macerich for continued growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAC) stock is a Hold with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macerich stock, see the MAC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Macerich Reports Q3 2025 Net Loss Improvement
Neutral
Nov 4, 2025

In the third quarter of 2025, The Macerich Company reported a net loss of $87.4 million, an improvement from the $108.2 million loss in the same period in 2024, largely due to gains from asset sales. The company signed leases for 1.5 million square feet, an 81% increase from the previous year, and expects new store leases to generate significant revenue. Macerich also engaged in several financial transactions, including property sales and securing new loans, contributing to a liquidity position of approximately $1 billion.

The most recent analyst rating on (MAC) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Macerich stock, see the MAC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 09, 2025