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Lamb Weston Holdings (LW)
NYSE:LW
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Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) AI Stock Analysis

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LW

Lamb Weston Holdings

(NYSE:LW)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$61.00
▲(5.03% Upside)
Lamb Weston Holdings has a robust financial position with strong revenue growth and efficient cash flow management. The earnings call provided positive guidance, but challenges in international markets and a moderate valuation slightly offset these strengths.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Exceeding revenue expectations indicates strong market demand and effective sales strategies, supporting long-term growth prospects.
Cash Flow Management
Strong cash flow management enhances financial stability, allowing for reinvestment in growth opportunities and debt reduction.
Market Position
Strong market position driven by volume growth and customer loyalty underpins competitive advantage and sustainable revenue streams.
Negative Factors
Net Income Decline
A decline in net income can pressure financial performance, potentially affecting future profitability and investment capacity.
Increasing Debt
High leverage may limit financial flexibility and increase risk, impacting the company's ability to invest in growth or weather downturns.
Profit Margin Pressure
Pressure on profit margins could affect overall profitability, necessitating cost control measures to maintain earnings stability.

Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Lamb Weston Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a leading global supplier of frozen potato products, primarily serving the foodservice and retail sectors. The company operates through various segments, including Foodservice, Retail, and International, providing a wide range of products such as French fries, potato wedges, and specialty potato products. With a strong commitment to innovation and sustainability, Lamb Weston focuses on enhancing its product offerings to meet consumer demands while maintaining high-quality standards.
How the Company Makes MoneyLamb Weston generates revenue primarily through the sale of frozen potato products across its various segments. The Foodservice segment, which supplies restaurants, hotels, and other food establishments, is a significant revenue driver, benefiting from the high demand for convenience foods. The Retail segment sells packaged frozen potato products directly to consumers through grocery stores and supermarkets, contributing to steady revenue. Additionally, international sales are crucial, as the company exports its products to numerous countries, leveraging global demand for processed potatoes. Key partnerships with major restaurant chains and grocery retailers further enhance its market reach and sales volume. The company's focus on innovation, including the development of new products and flavors, also plays a vital role in driving growth and increasing its earnings.

Lamb Weston Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 30, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong volume growth, successful cost savings initiatives, and product innovation, which are driving positive momentum. However, challenges remain with declining price mix, increased international competition, and start-up costs in Argentina impacting profitability.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Volume Growth
Lamb Weston reported another quarter of strong volume growth, driven by customer wins and retention, particularly in North America and Asia.
Cost Savings Initiatives
The company is on track to deliver at least $250 million of annual run rate savings by fiscal year-end 2028, with significant cost savings realized already.
Successful Strategic Plan Implementation
Lamb Weston is making progress with its new strategic plan 'Focus to Win,' including strengthening customer partnerships and realigning sales teams.
Product Innovation and Expansion
New innovative products are being launched, including flavor-forward offerings and expanding licensed brands, with strong performance internationally.
Positive Potato Crop Forecast
The potato crops in North America and Europe are expected to be above historical averages, which should benefit future production costs.
Strong Cash Flow and Liquidity
Lamb Weston generated $352 million of cash from operations and maintains a healthy liquidity position with $1.4 billion available.
Negative Updates
Price Mix Decline
Price mix declined 7% in North America and 6% in international markets due to ongoing support of customers and unfavorable channel product mix.
International Segment Challenges
Increased competitive actions in international markets, especially in Europe and Latin America, are putting pressure on price mix.
Equity Method Investments Loss
Equity method investments resulted in a $600,000 loss this quarter, down from $11 million in earnings in the prior year.
Operating Costs in Argentina
Approximately $4 million of incremental costs were incurred due to the start-up of the new production facility in Argentina.
Company Guidance
During the Lamb Weston First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call, the company provided guidance for its fiscal year 2026, highlighting several key metrics and strategic initiatives. The company aims to achieve at least $250 million in annual run rate savings by the fiscal year-end 2028 as part of its "Focus to Win" strategic plan. They reported a 6% increase in volume growth, driven by customer wins and retention, particularly in North America and Asia. Lamb Weston expects net sales for fiscal 2026 to be in the range of $6.35 billion to $6.55 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected between $1 billion to $1.2 billion. Additionally, the company plans to invest approximately $500 million in capital expenditures, including $400 million for maintenance and modernization, and $100 million for environmental projects. The guidance also incorporated potential tariffs, primarily on palm oil imports, which could amount to approximately $25 million annually. Lamb Weston reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook, emphasizing its commitment to profitable growth, customer-centric innovation, and strategic market prioritization.

Lamb Weston Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Lamb Weston Holdings shows strong revenue growth and efficient cash flow management. However, the decline in net income and increased reliance on debt slightly dampen the overall financial performance.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Lamb Weston Holdings shows a strong income statement with consistent revenue growth and healthy profitability margins. The company achieved a Gross Profit Margin of 21.67% and a Net Profit Margin of 5.54% in the latest report. However, the Net Profit has decreased notably from the previous year, indicating potential pressure on net earnings.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 2.39. The Return on Equity (ROE) is 20.55%, which is a strong indicator of profitability relative to equity. However, the Equity Ratio is 23.51%, suggesting a higher reliance on debt financing.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Lamb Weston Holdings demonstrates solid cash flow management with a positive Free Cash Flow of $230.1 million. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 2.43, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is 0.64, reflecting a stable cash flow situation despite some fluctuations in capital expenditures.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.45B6.45B6.47B5.35B4.10B3.67B
Gross Profit1.37B1.37B1.76B1.43B832.00M832.00M
EBITDA1.07B1.07B1.37B1.10B636.50M662.60M
Net Income357.20M357.20M725.50M1.01B200.90M317.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.39B7.39B7.37B6.52B4.14B4.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments70.70M70.70M71.40M304.80M525.00M783.50M
Total Debt4.16B4.16B3.85B3.49B2.75B2.77B
Total Liabilities5.65B5.65B5.58B5.11B3.78B3.73B
Stockholders Equity1.74B1.74B1.79B1.41B360.50M480.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow230.10M230.10M-131.30M107.70M128.50M405.50M
Operating Cash Flow868.30M868.30M798.20M761.70M418.60M552.70M
Investing Cash Flow-648.00M-648.00M-984.10M-1.34B-310.50M-162.50M
Financing Cash Flow-225.00M-225.00M-48.00M340.80M-363.40M-974.00M

Lamb Weston Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price58.08
Price Trends
50DMA
55.63
Positive
100DMA
54.06
Positive
200DMA
55.47
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.02
Positive
RSI
58.65
Neutral
STOCH
59.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 58.08 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.06, above the 50-day MA of 55.63, and above the 200-day MA of 55.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LW.

Lamb Weston Holdings Risk Analysis

Lamb Weston Holdings disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lamb Weston Holdings reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Lamb Weston Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$5.76B18.409.16%0.80%10.43%
71
Outperform
$8.61B7.5112.90%7.65%-3.64%231.77%
69
Neutral
$7.76B22.2416.22%2.53%<0.01%-51.18%
69
Neutral
$7.77B11.8215.91%2.64%-5.16%4.95%
67
Neutral
$9.20B15.3815.43%4.88%6.40%6.17%
50
Neutral
$11.46B-7.92-24.63%4.00%2.54%-293.39%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
58.08
-6.90
-10.62%
CPB
Campbell Soup
31.58
-14.43
-31.36%
CAG
Conagra Brands
18.31
-10.07
-35.48%
SJM
JM Smucker
108.60
-5.90
-5.15%
POST
Post Holdings
107.48
-7.50
-6.52%
INGR
Ingredion
122.11
-11.49
-8.60%

Lamb Weston Holdings Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Lamb Weston Announces Board Restructuring Agreement
Positive
Jun 30, 2025

On June 30, 2025, Lamb Weston Holdings announced a Cooperation Agreement with JANA Partners and Continental Grain, leading to significant changes in its Board of Directors. The agreement involves the resignation of four directors and the appointment of six new independent directors, including Bradley Alford as the new Chairman. This strategic move is expected to enhance Lamb Weston’s industry positioning and shareholder value by leveraging the new directors’ expertise and leadership experience.

The most recent analyst rating on (LW) stock is a Buy with a $96.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lamb Weston Holdings stock, see the LW Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 30, 2025