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Lamb Weston Holdings
(NYSE:LW)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$42.00
▼(-6.29% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/05/26
The score is held back mainly by margin compression, elevated leverage, and a weak technical trend. These are partially offset by raised FY2026 guidance, improving cash generation and cost-savings progress, and a supportive dividend with a mid-range P/E.
Positive Factors
North America execution
Sustained volume growth and high plant utilization in North America reflect durable competitive positioning with strong customer relationships and production flexibility. That market-level strength supports recurring cash flows, better absorption of fixed costs and a foundation for margin recovery over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
A sizable debt load relative to equity constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing and covenant risk if margins remain pressured. Elevated leverage limits the company's ability to absorb shocks, slows investment optionality, and increases sensitivity to interest and cash-flow variability over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
North America execution
Sustained volume growth and high plant utilization in North America reflect durable competitive positioning with strong customer relationships and production flexibility. That market-level strength supports recurring cash flows, better absorption of fixed costs and a foundation for margin recovery over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
Lamb Weston Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Lamb Weston Holdings is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Lamb Weston Holdings is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLamb Weston Holdings (LW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.25B
Dividend Yield3.37%
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.5
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth2.04%
EPS Growth-16.15%
CountryUS
Employees10,700
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.15
Shares Outstanding138,072,800
10 Day Avg. Volume1,568,989
30 Day Avg. Volume1,429,292
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.40
Price to Book (P/B)4.14
Price to Sales (P/S)1.11
P/FCF Ratio31.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.61
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.54
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$46.83Price Target Upside4.49% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)2.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.36B
Lamb Weston Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is a prominent global entity specializing in the manufacturing, distribution, and sale of enhanced frozen potato items. Its operations are structured across four distinct segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other....
How the Company Makes Money
Lamb Weston makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling frozen potato products (most notably frozen French fries) to business-to-business customers and, to a lesser extent, to retail channels. Revenue is generated through (1) Foodservice sa...
Lamb Weston Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 01, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but stabilizing picture: strong operational and commercial performance in North America, meaningful cost savings delivery, improved cash generation and tightened guidance provide constructive momentum. Those positives were offset by significant International challenges—excess European crop and capacity, a $33M raw potato write-off, steep declines in International sales and EBITDA, and near-term margin pressure. Management is taking decisive portfolio and capital actions and expects potato input costs to moderate, but uncertainty from input inflation and geopolitical risk (Middle East) persists.Positive Updates
North America Volume and Sales Strength
North America delivered strong execution with volume up 12% and net sales up 5% in the quarter (North America net sales increased 5%; overall volume increased 7% company-wide). Utilization in North America is in the low-90% range, and the business showed customer wins, share gains, high retention, and improved run rates.
Negative Updates
Material Decline in Adjusted EBITDA and Gross Profit
Adjusted EBITDA declined $101,000,000 year over year to $272,000,000. Adjusted gross profit declined $93,000,000 versus the prior year, driven primarily by unfavorable price mix and specific International impairments.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
North America Volume and Sales Strength
North America delivered strong execution with volume up 12% and net sales up 5% in the quarter (North America net sales increased 5%; overall volume increased 7% company-wide). Utilization in North America is in the low-90% range, and the business showed customer wins, share gains, high retention, and improved run rates.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, forecasting net sales of $6,450,000,000 to $6,550,000,000 (including an ~1.8% FX benefit, about $95,000,000 YTD) and adjusted EBITDA of $1,080,000,000 to $1,140,000,000 (which includes their current assessment of additional risk from the Middle East conflict); they expect North America to deliver high-single-digit volume growth in H2 (including an extra week of Q4 sales) while International full-year volumes should grow but will see YoY declines in H2, with Middle East sales representing a high-single-digit percentage of International volume YTD. They see potato input prices in North America down low- to mid-single digits for the new crop and European contracted potato pricing pointing to a mid-teens decline; adjusted gross margin is expected to decline seasonally in Q4 by ~250–300 basis points from Q3’s 20.9%; adjusted SG&A dollars should tick up slightly in Q4 (extra week and investments); full-year tax rate ~28% (Q4 mid-teens); depreciation & amortization now ~ $395,000,000; full-year capex ~ $400,000,000 (YTD $257,000,000); liquidity ~ $1,300,000,000; net debt ~$3,900,000,000 with net debt/adjusted EBITDA ~3.4x.Lamb Weston Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 | May 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.52B | 6.45B | 6.47B | 5.35B | 4.10B | 3.67B |
| Gross Profit | 1.34B | 1.40B | 1.77B | 1.43B | 832.00M | 832.00M |
| EBITDA | 996.50M | 1.09B | 1.40B | 1.57B | 625.80M | 655.20M |
| Net Income | 300.30M | 357.20M | 725.50M | 1.01B | 200.90M | 317.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.39B | 7.39B | 7.37B | 6.52B | 4.14B | 4.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 57.50M | 70.70M | 71.40M | 304.80M | 525.00M | 783.50M |
| Total Debt | 4.02B | 4.16B | 3.85B | 3.49B | 2.75B | 2.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.57B | 5.65B | 5.58B | 5.11B | 3.78B | 3.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.83B | 1.74B | 1.79B | 1.41B | 360.50M | 480.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 634.30M | 230.10M | -131.30M | 107.70M | 128.50M | 405.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 978.60M | 868.30M | 798.20M | 761.70M | 418.60M | 552.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -327.00M | -648.00M | -984.10M | -1.34B | -310.50M | -162.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -668.50M | -225.00M | -48.00M | 340.80M | -363.40M | -974.00M |
Lamb Weston Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
44.82
Price Trends
43.60
Positive
43.43
Positive
48.47
Negative
Market Momentum
0.69
Negative
58.37
Neutral
69.31
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LW, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 44.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 45.12, above the 50-day MA of 43.60, and below the 200-day MA of 48.47, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.31 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LW.
Lamb Weston Holdings Risk Analysis
Lamb Weston Holdings disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lamb Weston Holdings reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lamb Weston Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $6.15B | 9.38 | 15.57% | 2.86% | -2.21% | 9.29% | |
63 Neutral | $3.84B | 13.23 | 9.40% | ― | 7.16% | 6.00% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $6.40B | 10.75 | 15.30% | 5.64% | -2.90% | 33.92% | |
62 Neutral | $11.85B | -85.83 | -2.44% | 4.45% | 3.72% | 88.76% | |
56 Neutral | $6.40B | -153.50 | -0.51% | 7.87% | -4.73% | -112.96% | |
52 Neutral | $6.25B | 21.50 | 16.90% | 3.37% | 2.04% | -16.15% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
46.45
-3.13
-6.31%
CPB
Campbell Soup
22.07
-6.81
-23.57%
CAG
Conagra Brands
13.83
-4.01
-22.46%
SJM
JM Smucker
111.60
11.09
11.03%
POST
Post Holdings
86.28
-20.59
-19.27%
INGR
Ingredion
98.75
-33.30
-25.22%
Lamb Weston Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Lamb Weston to Close Dutch Plant in Efficiency Drive
Negative
Jun 4, 2026
On June 1, 2026, Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors had approved a plan to close the company’s manufacturing facility in Broekhuizenvorst, the Netherlands, and begin a required consultation process with the loca...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lamb Weston Subsidiary Secures New Long-Term RMB Loan
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Ulanqab Lamb Weston Food Co., Ltd., a wholly owned Chinese subsidiary of Lamb Weston Holdings, entered into a new RMB 700 million term loan facility with a syndicate of financial institutions and HSBC Bank (China) Company Limited ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.