Lamb Weston Holdings (LW)
NYSE:LW
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Lamb Weston Holdings
(NYSE:LW)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$41.00
▼(-2.82% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/08/26
Overall score reflects mixed fundamentals: strong top-line momentum and improving cash generation are offset by materially lower margins and elevated leverage. Technicals are a headwind with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is only modestly supported by the dividend given a high P/E. The latest earnings call adds some support via raised guidance and cost-savings execution, but International weakness and near-term margin pressure keep risk elevated.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
TTM revenue growth of +68.4% indicates durable demand expansion and successful commercial execution across foodservice and retail channels. Over a 2–6 month horizon this scale supports higher utilization, stronger negotiating leverage with suppliers, and a firmer base for margin recovery as volumes normalize.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
A sizable debt burden with net debt/adjusted EBITDA ~3.4x constrains strategic flexibility, increases refinancing risk, and limits capacity for opportunistic investments. Persistently elevated leverage raises sensitivity to macro shocks and could force prioritization of debt reduction over growth initiatives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
TTM revenue growth of +68.4% indicates durable demand expansion and successful commercial execution across foodservice and retail channels. Over a 2–6 month horizon this scale supports higher utilization, stronger negotiating leverage with suppliers, and a firmer base for margin recovery as volumes normalize.
Read all positive factors
Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.83B
Dividend Yield3.37%
Average Volume (3M)3.99M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.4
Beta (1Y)0.37
Revenue Growth2.35%
EPS Growth9.61%
CountryUS
Employees10,700
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.72
Shares Outstanding138,072,800
10 Day Avg. Volume3,048,939
30 Day Avg. Volume3,992,416
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.40
Price to Book (P/B)4.14
Price to Sales (P/S)1.11
P/FCF Ratio31.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.68
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.50
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$44.78Price Target Upside6.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)2.77
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.53B
Lamb Weston Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. produces, distributes, and markets value-added frozen potato products worldwide. It operates through four segments: Global, Foodservice, Retail, and Other. The company offers frozen potatoes, commercial ingredients, and ...
How the Company Makes Money
Lamb Weston makes money primarily by selling frozen potato products—most notably frozen french fries and other value-added potato items—to a mix of large foodservice and retail customers. Revenue is generated through (1) sales to foodservice opera...
Lamb Weston Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Lamb Weston Holdings is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Lamb Weston Holdings is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLamb Weston Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 01, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but stabilizing picture: strong operational and commercial performance in North America, meaningful cost savings delivery, improved cash generation and tightened guidance provide constructive momentum. Those positives were offset by significant International challenges—excess European crop and capacity, a $33M raw potato write-off, steep declines in International sales and EBITDA, and near-term margin pressure. Management is taking decisive portfolio and capital actions and expects potato input costs to moderate, but uncertainty from input inflation and geopolitical risk (Middle East) persists.Positive Updates
North America Volume and Sales Strength
North America delivered strong execution with volume up 12% and net sales up 5% in the quarter (North America net sales increased 5%; overall volume increased 7% company-wide). Utilization in North America is in the low-90% range, and the business showed customer wins, share gains, high retention, and improved run rates.
Negative Updates
Material Decline in Adjusted EBITDA and Gross Profit
Adjusted EBITDA declined $101,000,000 year over year to $272,000,000. Adjusted gross profit declined $93,000,000 versus the prior year, driven primarily by unfavorable price mix and specific International impairments.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
North America Volume and Sales Strength
North America delivered strong execution with volume up 12% and net sales up 5% in the quarter (North America net sales increased 5%; overall volume increased 7% company-wide). Utilization in North America is in the low-90% range, and the business showed customer wins, share gains, high retention, and improved run rates.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised its fiscal 2026 outlook, forecasting net sales of $6,450,000,000 to $6,550,000,000 (including an ~1.8% FX benefit, about $95,000,000 YTD) and adjusted EBITDA of $1,080,000,000 to $1,140,000,000 (which includes their current assessment of additional risk from the Middle East conflict); they expect North America to deliver high-single-digit volume growth in H2 (including an extra week of Q4 sales) while International full-year volumes should grow but will see YoY declines in H2, with Middle East sales representing a high-single-digit percentage of International volume YTD. They see potato input prices in North America down low- to mid-single digits for the new crop and European contracted potato pricing pointing to a mid-teens decline; adjusted gross margin is expected to decline seasonally in Q4 by ~250–300 basis points from Q3’s 20.9%; adjusted SG&A dollars should tick up slightly in Q4 (extra week and investments); full-year tax rate ~28% (Q4 mid-teens); depreciation & amortization now ~ $395,000,000; full-year capex ~ $400,000,000 (YTD $257,000,000); liquidity ~ $1,300,000,000; net debt ~$3,900,000,000 with net debt/adjusted EBITDA ~3.4x.Lamb Weston Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | May 2022 | May 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.52B | 6.45B | 6.47B | 5.35B | 4.10B | 3.67B |
| Gross Profit | 1.34B | 1.40B | 1.77B | 1.43B | 832.00M | 832.00M |
| EBITDA | 893.90M | 1.07B | 1.37B | 1.10B | 636.50M | 662.60M |
| Net Income | 300.30M | 357.20M | 725.50M | 1.01B | 200.90M | 317.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.39B | 7.39B | 7.37B | 6.52B | 4.14B | 4.21B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 57.50M | 70.70M | 71.40M | 304.80M | 525.00M | 783.50M |
| Total Debt | 3.99B | 4.16B | 3.85B | 3.49B | 2.75B | 2.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.57B | 5.65B | 5.58B | 5.11B | 3.78B | 3.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.83B | 1.74B | 1.79B | 1.41B | 360.50M | 480.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 634.30M | 230.10M | -131.30M | 107.70M | 128.50M | 405.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 978.60M | 868.30M | 798.20M | 761.70M | 418.60M | 552.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -327.00M | -648.00M | -984.10M | -1.34B | -310.50M | -162.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -668.50M | -225.00M | -48.00M | 340.80M | -363.40M | -974.00M |
Lamb Weston Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
42.19
Price Trends
44.69
Negative
47.30
Negative
51.87
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.86
Negative
50.27
Neutral
80.44
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LW, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 42.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 40.86, below the 50-day MA of 44.69, and below the 200-day MA of 51.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.44 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LW.
Lamb Weston Holdings Risk Analysis
Lamb Weston Holdings disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lamb Weston Holdings reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lamb Weston Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $7.22B | 9.71 | 17.25% | 2.86% | -3.83% | -2.04% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $9.70B | -3.86 | -21.55% | 4.45% | -0.66% | -326.55% | |
61 Neutral | $4.84B | 13.23 | 8.49% | ― | 2.97% | -2.68% | |
56 Neutral | $7.26B | 11.30 | -0.51% | 7.87% | -5.82% | -119.70% | |
54 Neutral | $6.09B | 14.14 | 13.98% | 5.64% | 2.71% | 4.90% | |
52 Neutral | $5.83B | 30.39 | 16.90% | 3.37% | 2.35% | 9.61% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
42.19
-12.25
-22.50%
CPB
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20.43
-16.30
-44.37%
CAG
Conagra Brands
15.18
-9.18
-37.68%
SJM
JM Smucker
90.91
-22.42
-19.78%
POST
Post Holdings
101.02
-17.44
-14.72%
INGR
Ingredion
114.66
-13.05
-10.22%
Lamb Weston Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Lamb Weston Appoints New Executive Chair and Incoming CFO
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
On February 4, 2026, Lamb Weston announced that its board appointed former Budweiser APAC chief executive Jan Eli B. Craps as Executive Chair effective February 6, 2026, under a three-year term featuring a heavily equity-based compensation package...
Business Operations and Strategy
Lamb Weston to Close Argentina Plant, Consolidate Production
Negative
Jan 8, 2026
On January 5, 2026, Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. approved a plan to close its manufacturing facility in Munro, Argentina, and consolidate production for the Latin America region into its new plant in Mar del Plata as part of an initiative to improve...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.