Post Holdings Inc. (POST)
NYSE:POST
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Post Holdings
(NYSE:POST)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$109.00
▲(7.29% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by solid operating scale and cash generation, but constrained by elevated leverage and some margin pressure. Valuation appears reasonable, while technical indicators are neutral. Earnings call commentary supports stability (EBITDA beat, buybacks, synergy progress) but highlights meaningful near-term cost and category headwinds that limit upside.
Positive Factors
Scale & Cash Generation
Sustained revenue expansion and material free cash flow provide durable financial resources to fund capex, deleveraging, buybacks and M&A. Scale across retail, foodservice and ingredients supports pricing and distribution leverage, improving resilience to cyclical volatility.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
High absolute debt and a >2x debt/equity ratio limit financial flexibility, increase interest and refinancing risk, and constrain strategic optionality. Covenants around recent senior notes further restrict incremental borrowing and capital moves, raising vulnerability to earnings shocks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Cash Generation
Sustained revenue expansion and material free cash flow provide durable financial resources to fund capex, deleveraging, buybacks and M&A. Scale across retail, foodservice and ingredients supports pricing and distribution leverage, improving resilience to cyclical volatility.
Read all positive factors
Post Holdings (POST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.51B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)769.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.5
Beta (1Y)0.16
Revenue Growth7.16%
EPS Growth6.00%
CountryUS
Employees11,480
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.51
Shares Outstanding45,322,586
10 Day Avg. Volume961,675
30 Day Avg. Volume769,137
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-7.85
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.74
P/FCF Ratio12.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.61
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.25
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.22
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$122.33Price Target Upside20.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)7.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.34B
Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Post Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through five segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands. The Post ...
How the Company Makes Money
Post Holdings makes money primarily by selling food products and food ingredients through a portfolio of operating segments.
1) Branded and private-label consumer packaged goods (retail channels): Post generates revenue from selling branded and p...
Post Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced multiple strategic positives — better-than-expected adjusted EBITDA, strong cash flow and liquidity, a 15% reduction in share count year-to-date, progress on acquisitions and network optimizations, and bright spots in Refrigerated and select brand dynamics — against several operational and macro headwinds including rising fuel/energy costs, regional geopolitical uncertainty, lingering category softness in pet and cereal, and short-term execution timing for relaunches. Management expects to absorb some cost pressure this fiscal year but signaled the potential for pricing actions if inflation persists, while maintaining a disciplined M&A posture.Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA Above Expectations
Management reported adjusted EBITDA in Q2 came in above expectations and reiterated full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance (maintenance driven by external uncertainty).
Negative Updates
Guidance Held Due to Middle East Conflict Headwinds
Despite better-than-expected Q2 EBITDA, management maintained prior adjusted EBITDA guidance citing new headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East and associated cost uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted EBITDA Above Expectations
Management reported adjusted EBITDA in Q2 came in above expectations and reiterated full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance (maintenance driven by external uncertainty).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated its prior adjusted EBITDA guidance even though Q2 adjusted EBITDA beat expectations, citing new headwinds from the Middle East conflict and higher fuel/diesel surcharges (base case assumes the war runs through the fiscal year and hedges only partially cover the exposure); they said they will absorb most incremental cost this fiscal year but may consider pricing in the next fiscal year if inflation persists. Key metrics called out: fiscal year‑to‑date share count down 15% from buybacks; foodservice run rate remains about $125 million per quarter; pet portfolio is ~60% dry dog food (down 4% in pounds, contributing roughly 20% of the issue) with Nutrish relaunch fully rolling into Q3 and expected to be flat-to-slightly up by Q4; cereal category was down 3% in Q2 (April down 2.5%) while Post held flat dollar share year-over-year; Refrigerated dinner sides grew ~12% (≈1/3 underlying volume, 1/3 private label, 1/3 Easter timing); Post Consumer Brands private label ≈20% of the business and Weetabix private label is north of 40% in the UK; APAP integration is in line with the model and synergies are ahead of plan, targeting run‑rate by the end of the fiscal year; and they intend to keep roughly $150 million of cash on the balance sheet for operations.Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.45B | 8.16B | 7.92B | 6.99B | 5.85B | 4.98B |
| Gross Profit | 2.24B | 2.15B | 2.16B | 1.76B | 1.26B | 1.23B |
| EBITDA | 1.43B | 1.33B | 1.27B | 1.10B | 1.59B | 913.10M |
| Net Income | 338.40M | 335.70M | 366.70M | 301.30M | 756.60M | 166.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.98B | 13.53B | 12.85B | 11.65B | 11.31B | 12.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 269.40M | 176.70M | 787.40M | 103.90M | 681.30M | 664.50M |
| Total Debt | 7.63B | 7.70B | 7.06B | 6.23B | 6.10B | 6.57B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.77B | 9.76B | 8.75B | 7.80B | 7.74B | 9.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.19B | 3.75B | 4.09B | 3.84B | 3.25B | 2.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 724.50M | 488.10M | 502.20M | 447.30M | 128.90M | 395.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.01B | 998.30M | 931.70M | 750.30M | 384.20M | 588.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -904.40M | -1.42B | -677.50M | -669.30M | -221.00M | -793.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -457.50M | -188.60M | 415.60M | -555.70M | -386.70M | -167.50M |
Post Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
101.59
Price Trends
100.68
Negative
101.85
Negative
103.54
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.41
Positive
37.81
Neutral
33.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 101.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 102.74, above the 50-day MA of 100.68, and below the 200-day MA of 103.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for POST.
Post Holdings Risk Analysis
Post Holdings disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Post Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Post Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $4.51B | 14.47 | 9.40% | ― | 7.16% | 6.00% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
56 Neutral | $6.60B | 11.30 | -0.51% | 7.87% | -4.73% | -112.96% | |
52 Neutral | $1.55B | -8.50 | 6.02% | 9.15% | 3.00% | -66.29% | |
52 Neutral | $6.03B | 30.39 | 16.90% | 3.37% | 2.04% | -16.15% | |
47 Neutral | $1.08B | 14.04 | -35.70% | ― | 6.37% | -40.20% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
POST
Post Holdings
97.69
-12.72
-11.52%
CAG
Conagra Brands
13.93
-7.32
-34.45%
FLO
Flowers Foods
7.21
-8.58
-54.32%
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
42.19
-10.15
-19.38%
BRBR
BellRing Brands
8.89
-56.43
-86.39%
Post Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Post Holdings Announces CEO Transition and New Buyback Plan
Positive
May 7, 2026
Post Holdings reported solid results for its second fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026, with net sales up 4.7% to $2.04 billion and net earnings rising 30.8% to $81.9 million, while Adjusted EBITDA climbed 14% to $395 million and the company affi...
Private Placements and Financing
Post Holdings Prices Additional $600 Million Senior Notes
Neutral
Mar 13, 2026
On March 13, 2026, Post Holdings, Inc. issued $600 million of additional 6.250% senior notes due October 15, 2034, priced at 100.75% of principal plus accrued interest, in a private offering to institutional and non-U.S. investors. These new notes...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Post Holdings Prices Upsized $600 Million Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Post Holdings, Inc. announced it had priced an upsized $600 million offering of 6.250% senior unsecured notes due 2034 at 100.75% of principal, plus accrued interest from October 15, 2025, with a yield to worst of 6.109%. The not...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Post Holdings Plans $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Post Holdings, Inc. announced plans to launch a private offering of $500 million in additional 6.250% senior notes due 2034, which will form part of the same unsecured, guaranteed series as the $600 million of existing notes with...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.