Post Holdings (POST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.75B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 730.53K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.14
• Revenue Growth: 0.80%
• EPS Growth: 10.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,480
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 2.03
• Shares Outstanding: 54,320,126
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 838,066
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 730,532
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.28
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.66
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.99
• 1Y Price Target: $127.25
• Price Target Upside: 20.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $121.00 ▲(14.23% Upside)

Post Holdings' overall score reflects strong financial performance and strategic corporate actions, such as acquisitions and share buybacks. However, high leverage and challenges in key segments weigh on the score. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, which also affects the overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Strategic Acquisitions

The acquisition of 8th Avenue enhances Post Holdings' market position and product offerings, particularly in nut butter and granola, which can drive long-term growth and profitability.

Share Repurchase Program

The new $500M share repurchase program reflects confidence in the company's financial health and can enhance shareholder value over time by reducing the number of outstanding shares.

Tax Strategy

The significant reduction in cash taxes over the next five years improves cash flow, allowing for reinvestment in growth initiatives and debt reduction, strengthening financial stability.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, particularly in economic downturns, potentially impacting long-term operational stability and growth.

Volume Declines in Key Segments

Declining volumes in core segments like cereal and pet products may indicate competitive pressures or changing consumer preferences, which could affect long-term revenue growth.

Free Cash Flow Conversion

Limited conversion of earnings into free cash flow can restrict the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities or reduce debt, impacting financial flexibility and strategic initiatives.

Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Post Holdings, Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company based in the United States, primarily engaged in the manufacture, marketing, and distribution of a wide variety of food products. The company operates in several sectors, including the breakfast cereals, snacks, and nutrition segments, with a diverse portfolio that includes well-known brands such as Grape-Nuts, Honey Bunches of Oats, and PowerBar. Post Holdings also has a significant presence in the private label and food service sectors, catering to both retail and institutional customers.

How the Company Makes Money

Post Holdings generates revenue through multiple key streams primarily focused on the sale of branded and private label food products. Its revenue model is built around the production and distribution of breakfast cereals, snacks, and nutritional products, which are sold through various channels including grocery stores, mass retailers, and food service establishments. The company benefits from established brand loyalty and market presence, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing and drive sales. Additionally, strategic partnerships and acquisitions, such as the integration of brands like Bob's Red Mill and the acquisition of various snack and nutrition brands, enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings. The company also leverages economies of scale and efficient supply chain management to optimize profitability.

Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Post Holdings maintains a stable financial position with strengths in operational efficiency and cash flow management. While the income statement reflects solid profitability, modest revenue growth suggests a need for strategic growth initiatives. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, which requires careful management to mitigate financial risk. Strong cash flow performance supports the company's operational and strategic flexibility.

Income Statement

Post Holdings shows a stable financial performance with a strong gross profit margin of 29.1% and a net profit margin of 4.5% for TTM. Revenue growth is modest at -0.5% compared to the previous annual period, indicating the need for growth initiatives. The EBIT margin stands at 10.0% and EBITDA margin at 14.8%, reflecting solid operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in revenue suggests a need for market expansion or product innovation.

Balance Sheet

The company's financial stability is moderate, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.81, indicating a reliance on debt. The return on equity (ROE) is 9.3%, showing a decent return for shareholders, while the equity ratio is 29.9%, suggesting moderate leverage. While the equity ratio provides some buffer against financial risk, the high debt levels could pose a risk if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

Post Holdings demonstrates strong cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 45.1% and a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.74 for TTM. This indicates efficient cash generation and the ability to fund operations and investments. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.04, reflecting effective capital expenditure management and strong cash profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.92B	7.92B	6.99B	5.85B	4.98B	4.71B
Gross Profit	2.31B	2.30B	1.88B	1.47B	1.43B	1.45B
EBITDA	1.31B	1.27B	1.10B	830.10M	913.10M	633.00M
Net Income	366.10M	366.70M	301.30M	756.60M	166.70M	800.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.37B	12.85B	11.65B	11.31B	12.41B	12.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.06B	787.40M	103.90M	681.30M	664.50M	1.19B
Total Debt	7.35B	7.06B	6.23B	6.10B	6.57B	7.15B
Total Liabilities	9.36B	8.75B	7.80B	7.74B	9.36B	9.32B
Stockholders Equity	4.00B	4.09B	3.84B	3.25B	2.74B	2.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	563.70M	502.20M	447.30M	128.90M	395.70M	391.00M
Operating Cash Flow	932.40M	931.70M	750.30M	384.20M	588.20M	625.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-612.60M	-677.50M	-669.30M	-220.20M	-793.60M	-218.50M
Financing Cash Flow	396.20M	415.60M	-555.70M	-237.20M	-167.50M	-272.00M

Post Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 105.93
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 105.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 106.03, below the 50-day MA of 107.22, and below the 200-day MA of 110.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for POST.

Post Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BRFS	79 Outperform	$5.31B	8.77	21.28%	14.34%	-1.19%	78.79%
POST	75 Outperform	$5.75B	18.14	9.23%	―	0.80%	10.43%
CAG	71 Outperform	$8.68B	7.57	12.90%	7.70%	-3.64%	231.77%
LW	68 Neutral	$7.70B	22.06	20.56%	2.66%	-0.25%	-49.73%
FLO	63 Neutral	$2.69B	12.33	15.37%	7.64%	-0.61%	70.09%
BRBR	60 Neutral	$4.64B	21.04	-73.67%	―	16.27%	5.13%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%

Post Holdings Corporate Events

Post Holdings Announces $500M Share Repurchase Plan

On August 29, 2025, Post Holdings announced a definitive agreement to sell the pasta business of its subsidiary, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, to Richardson (US) Holdings Limited for $375 million in cash and the assumption of $80 million in leaseback financial liabilities. This transaction is expected to close in the first fiscal quarter of 2026, with Post retaining the nut butters, fruit and nut products, and granola businesses, which are projected to contribute $45-50 million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2026. Additionally, Post’s Board of Directors approved a new $500 million share repurchase authorization effective August 29, 2025, replacing the previous authorization and allowing flexibility in repurchasing shares without obligating the company to acquire any specific number.

Post Holdings Announces Leadership Change with New COO

On August 5, 2025, Post Holdings announced the retirement of Jeff A. Zadoks from his role as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective January 2, 2026, with Nicolas Catoggio set to succeed him. Catoggio, who has been with Post Consumer Brands since 2021, brings over two decades of experience in the consumer goods industry, including significant roles at Boston Consulting Group and Unilever. In its third fiscal quarter ending June 30, 2025, Post Holdings reported net sales of $2.0 billion and an operating profit of $234.6 million, with a notable increase in Adjusted EBITDA. The company also raised its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook, reflecting strong performance in segments like Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail, despite challenges in Post Consumer Brands and Weetabix.

Post Holdings Completes Acquisition of 8th Avenue

On July 1, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. announced the completion of its acquisition of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc. This acquisition is expected to enhance Post Holdings’ market position in the consumer packaged goods sector, particularly in the foodservice and retail channels, by expanding its portfolio with additional food products.

Post Holdings to Acquire Remaining 8th Avenue Equity

On June 3, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. entered into a stock purchase agreement to acquire the remaining equity interests in its subsidiary, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc., that it does not already own. The acquisition, valued at approximately $880 million, includes the retirement of 8th Avenue’s outstanding debt and finance leases. The closing of the acquisition is expected on July 1, 2025, and will result in the termination of certain agreements with THL Equity Fund VIII Investors. This move is anticipated to streamline Post’s operations and potentially enhance its market positioning by fully integrating 8th Avenue into its corporate structure.