Post Holdings (POST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.20B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 925.80K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.13
• Revenue Growth: 2.97%
• EPS Growth: -2.68%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,480
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 2.09
• Shares Outstanding: 51,603,620
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 919,864
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 925,802
• PEG Ratio: -7.86
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.74
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.73
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.54
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.58
• 1Y Price Target: $121.71
• Price Target Upside: 20.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $8.52B

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: $104.00 ▲(2.97% Upside)

Post Holdings' overall stock score is driven by a solid financial performance and positive earnings call insights, despite technical analysis indicating bearish trends. The new share buyback plan adds a positive outlook, but valuation concerns and competitive pressures in certain segments temper the score.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth, driven by acquisitions and strategic investments, indicates strong market positioning and business expansion.

Cash Flow Management

Strong cash flow management enhances financial flexibility, enabling strategic investments and debt management, supporting long-term stability.

Share Buyback Plan

The share buyback plan reflects management's confidence in financial health and provides flexibility for capital allocation, enhancing shareholder value.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage poses a risk to financial stability, potentially limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage economic downturns.

Cereal Volume Decline

Declining cereal volumes highlight competitive pressures and market challenges, potentially impacting long-term revenue and market share in key segments.

Competitive Pressure

Intense competition in the cereal market could erode margins and market share, challenging Post Holdings' ability to maintain its competitive edge.

Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Post Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through five segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands. The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, and drug store customers, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels. The Weetabix segment primarily markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal, hot cereals and other cereal-based food products, breakfast drinks, and muesli. This segment sells its products to grocery stores, discounters, wholesalers, and convenience stores, as well as through ecommerce. The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg and potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels. It serves foodservice distributors and national restaurant chains. The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg products, sausages, cheese, and other dairy and refrigerated products for grocery stores and mass merchandise customers. The BellRing Brands segment markets and distributes ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars, and supplements. It serves club stores, food, drug and mass customers, and online retailers, as well as specialty retailers, convenience stores, and distributors. Post Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Post Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse food products across multiple segments. Key revenue streams include ready-to-eat cereals, which are marketed under well-known brands such as Grape Nuts and Honey Bunches of Oats, and refrigerated products, including eggs and dairy items. The company also benefits from its nutritional supplements division, which offers protein powders and bars. Significant partnerships with retailers enable Post to expand its distribution reach, while acquisitions of complementary brands enhance its product portfolio and market presence. Additionally, the company leverages private label offerings, allowing it to serve a broader customer base and stabilize revenue through various retail partnerships.

Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Post Holdings exhibits a solid financial position with consistent revenue growth and stable operational margins. While leverage remains a concern, improvements in cash flow metrics and debt management are positive signs. Continued focus on cost management and leverage reduction could enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

Post Holdings has demonstrated consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable increase in gross profit margins. However, the net profit margin has seen some fluctuations, indicating potential cost management issues. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have remained relatively stable, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved over time, indicating better leverage management, but it remains relatively high, posing a risk. Return on equity has shown variability, reflecting inconsistent profitability. The equity ratio suggests a moderate reliance on equity financing.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has increased, supporting the company's ability to cover net income. Free cash flow growth has been positive, although there have been fluctuations. The free cash flow to net income ratio indicates a healthy conversion of profits into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.16B	8.16B	7.92B	6.99B	5.85B	4.98B
Gross Profit	2.15B	2.15B	2.16B	1.76B	1.26B	1.23B
EBITDA	1.33B	1.33B	1.27B	1.10B	1.59B	913.10M
Net Income	335.70M	335.70M	366.70M	301.30M	756.60M	166.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.53B	13.53B	12.85B	11.65B	11.31B	12.41B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	176.70M	176.70M	787.40M	103.90M	681.30M	664.50M
Total Debt	7.42B	7.42B	7.06B	6.23B	6.10B	6.57B
Total Liabilities	9.76B	9.76B	8.75B	7.80B	7.74B	9.36B
Stockholders Equity	3.75B	3.75B	4.09B	3.84B	3.25B	2.74B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	488.10M	488.10M	502.20M	447.30M	128.90M	395.70M
Operating Cash Flow	998.30M	998.30M	931.70M	750.30M	384.20M	588.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.42B	-1.42B	-677.50M	-669.30M	-221.00M	-793.60M
Financing Cash Flow	-188.60M	-188.60M	415.60M	-555.70M	-386.70M	-167.50M

Post Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 101.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 101 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 99.25, below the 50-day MA of 103.48, and below the 200-day MA of 108.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.06 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for POST.

Post Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BRFS	79 Outperform	―	―	―	―	-1.19%	78.79%
FLO	69 Neutral	$2.31B	11.95	13.73%	8.97%	0.26%	-19.45%
BRBR	67 Neutral	$3.44B	17.58	―	―	16.05%	-10.17%
POST	64 Neutral	$5.20B	18.42	8.56%	―	2.97%	-2.68%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
LW	61 Neutral	$6.12B	15.80	23.16%	3.37%	2.35%	9.61%
CAG	52 Neutral	$8.30B	-83.87	-1.16%	7.87%	-5.82%	-119.70%

Post Holdings Corporate Events

Post Holdings refinances debt with new long-term notes

On December 15, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. issued $1.3 billion of 6.50% senior unsecured notes due March 15, 2036, to institutional and non-U.S. investors, with semi-annual interest payments starting March 15, 2026, and full and unconditional guarantees from most of its domestic subsidiaries. The notes, which sit pari passu with the company’s other senior debt and are subject to extensive covenants and standard default provisions, feature multiple optional redemption structures and a change-of-control put, shaping Post’s future flexibility in managing its capital structure and leverage profile. On December 17, 2025, the company used proceeds to complete the previously announced redemption of all $1.235 billion outstanding 5.50% senior notes due 2029 at 101.833% of principal plus accrued interest, effectively extending its debt maturity profile and replacing lower-coupon but shorter-dated notes with higher-cost, longer-term financing.

Post Holdings Announces Senior Notes Redemption Plan

On December 2, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. announced its intention to redeem $1,235.0 million of its 5.50% senior notes due 2029. This redemption is contingent upon securing sufficient financing, which the company plans to achieve through the issuance of $1,300.0 million in 6.50% senior notes due 2036, expected to close on December 15, 2025. This strategic financial maneuver is anticipated to impact the company’s debt structure and market positioning.

Post Holdings Announces $1.3 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On December 1, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. announced the pricing of its $1,300 million senior notes offering, with the notes due in 2036 and carrying a 6.50% interest rate. The proceeds from this offering are intended to cover associated costs and redeem the company’s outstanding 5.50% senior notes due 2029, with any remaining funds allocated for general corporate purposes. The offering is expected to close on December 15, 2025, and will impact the company’s financial strategy by potentially reducing existing debt and supporting future acquisitions or capital expenditures.

Post Holdings Announces $1.3 Billion Senior Notes Offering

On December 1, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. announced its intention to initiate a private offering of $1.3 billion in senior notes due in 2036. The proceeds from this offering are planned to be used for redeeming existing senior notes due in 2029 and potentially for general corporate purposes, including acquisitions and debt repayment.

Post Holdings Announces New $500M Share Buyback Plan

On November 25, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. announced the approval of a new $500 million share repurchase authorization, effective November 27, 2025, while cancelling the previous authorization. The new authorization allows for flexible repurchase methods and does not obligate the company to buy a specific number of shares, providing Post Holdings with strategic financial flexibility.

Post Holdings Approves Stock-Based Awards for Executives

On November 18, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc.’s Corporate Governance and Compensation Committee approved stock-based awards for its executive officers, including restricted stock units (RSUs) and performance-based restricted stock units (PRSUs) under the 2021 Long-Term Incentive Plan. These awards are part of the company’s strategy to align executive compensation with shareholder interests, with PRSUs based on total shareholder return compared to peers over a three-year period, impacting the company’s executive retention and performance incentives.

Post Holdings Chairman William Stiritz Announces Retirement

On November 18, 2025, William P. Stiritz announced his retirement as Chairman of Post Holdings‘ Board of Directors, effective December 16, 2025, after serving since 2012. Robert V. Vitale, the company’s President and CEO, will succeed him as Chairman. Post Holdings reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025, highlighting a 11.8% increase in net sales for the quarter to $2.2 billion and a 9.6% increase in Adjusted EBITDA for the year to $1.54 billion. The company completed acquisitions of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions and Potato Products of Idaho, impacting its Consumer Brands and Refrigerated Retail segments. Despite these gains, the company faced challenges such as a decline in Post Consumer Brands’ net sales and a decrease in net earnings.

Post Holdings Amends Bylaws to Empower Shareholders

On October 16, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. amended its bylaws to allow shareholders with at least 25% of voting stock to call special meetings. This change enhances shareholder engagement and could impact the company’s governance and decision-making processes.