Post Holdings (POST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $6.25B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 562.98K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.15
• Revenue Growth: 1.48%
• EPS Growth: 9.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,480
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 69
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 1.41
• Shares Outstanding: 55,718,597
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 512,534
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 562,981
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.53
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 38.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.33
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.52
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.02
• 1Y Price Target: $131.88
• Price Target Upside: 16.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $125.00 ▲(10.02%Upside)

Post Holdings' overall stock score of 73 reflects a stable but cautious outlook. The company's strong financial management and strategic acquisitions are positive, yet technical indicators and modest revenue growth temper enthusiasm. The increased EBITDA guidance and share repurchases indicate management's confidence, but challenges in specific segments and a fair valuation suggest a balanced risk-reward scenario.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Post delivered EBITDA upside despite softer sales trends.

Market Positioning

The acquisition of Potato Products of Idaho LLC is expected to expand Post Holdings Inc.'s potato sales by 10-15%.

Shareholder Value

The company repurchased 1.6 million shares in the quarter for $181.1 million and an additional 1 million shares for $106.9 million, indicating strong buyback strategy.

Negative Factors

Cost Pressures

Post is expected to incur an incremental $30-$50 million in avian-flu related cost pressures.

Sales Performance

Consumer Brands sales were softer with net sales declining by 2.5% and organic sales down by 6%.

Volume Challenges

Volume was softer on Pet, Weetabix, and cheese/egg distribution loss.

Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Post Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through five segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands. The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, and drug store customers, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels. The Weetabix segment primarily markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal, hot cereals and other cereal-based food products, breakfast drinks, and muesli. This segment sells its products to grocery stores, discounters, wholesalers, and convenience stores, as well as through ecommerce. The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg and potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels. It serves foodservice distributors and national restaurant chains. The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg products, sausages, cheese, and other dairy and refrigerated products for grocery stores and mass merchandise customers. The BellRing Brands segment markets and distributes ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars, and supplements. It serves club stores, food, drug and mass customers, and online retailers, as well as specialty retailers, convenience stores, and distributors. Post Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Post Holdings generates revenue through the sale of its diverse range of food products across various segments. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of branded and private label ready-to-eat cereals, egg and potato products, and refrigerated food items. Post Holdings leverages its extensive distribution network and partnerships with major retailers and foodservice operators to reach customers. Additionally, the company has a significant presence in the active nutrition category, offering protein shakes, bars, and powders under well-known brands. Strategic acquisitions and brand development further bolster its revenue, allowing Post Holdings to maintain a strong market presence and explore growth opportunities.

Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Post Holdings maintains a stable financial position with strengths in operational efficiency and cash flow management. The income statement reflects solid profitability, but modest revenue growth suggests a need for strategic growth initiatives. Moderate leverage in the balance sheet requires careful management to mitigate financial risk.

Income Statement

Post Holdings shows a stable financial performance with a strong gross profit margin of 29.1% and a net profit margin of 4.5% for TTM. Revenue growth is modest at -0.5% compared to the previous annual period, indicating the need for growth initiatives. The EBIT margin stands at 10.0% and EBITDA margin at 14.8%, reflecting solid operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in revenue suggests a need for market expansion or product innovation.

Balance Sheet

The company's financial stability is moderate, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.81, indicating a reliance on debt. The return on equity (ROE) is 9.3%, showing a decent return for shareholders, while the equity ratio is 29.9%, suggesting moderate leverage. While the equity ratio provides some buffer against financial risk, the high debt levels could pose a risk if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

Post Holdings demonstrates strong cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 45.1% and a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.74 for TTM. This indicates efficient cash generation and the ability to fund operations and investments. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.04, reflecting effective capital expenditure management and strong cash profitability.

Breakdown
TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
7.88B	7.92B	6.99B	5.85B	6.23B	5.70B
	Gross Profit
2.29B	2.30B	1.88B	1.47B	1.81B	1.79B
	EBIT
790.40M	793.50M	598.90M	415.60M	655.70M	700.50M
	EBITDA
1.28B	1.27B	1.10B	830.10M	851.40M	810.70M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
357.30M	366.70M	301.30M	756.60M	250.60M	59.90M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
617.60M	787.40M	103.90M	681.30M	817.10M	1.19B
	Total Assets
12.80B	12.85B	11.65B	11.31B	12.41B	12.15B
	Total Debt
6.95B	7.06B	6.23B	5.96B	7.04B	7.02B
	Net Debt
6.33B	6.27B	6.14B	5.37B	6.22B	5.84B
	Total Liabilities
8.96B	8.75B	7.80B	7.74B	9.36B	9.32B
	Stockholders Equity
3.83B	4.09B	3.84B	3.25B	2.74B	2.85B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
728.80M	502.20M	447.30M	128.90M	395.70M	391.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
978.80M	931.70M	750.30M	384.20M	588.20M	625.60M
	Investing Cash Flow
-587.10M	-677.50M	-669.30M	-220.20M	-793.60M	-218.50M
	Financing Cash Flow
-114.20M	415.60M	-555.70M	-237.20M	-167.50M	-272.00M

Post Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 113.62
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 113.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 109.74, above the 50-day MA of 112.29, and above the 200-day MA of 112.84, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for POST.

Post Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BRFS	80 Outperform	$6.44B	9.12	23.47%	2.30%	3.82%	―
DAR	75 Outperform	$5.14B	29.68	3.79%	―	-11.02%	-68.34%
INGR	75 Outperform	$8.94B	14.67	16.31%	2.31%	-6.88%	-4.93%
POST	73 Outperform	$6.25B	20.50	9.15%	―	1.48%	9.36%
BRBR	70 Outperform	$7.79B	27.90	-190.65%	―	18.91%	49.43%
LW	69 Neutral	$7.85B	21.82	21.63%	2.65%	-2.49%	-65.96%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$8.88B	15.01	4.67%	6.15%	3.61%	-2.60%

Post Holdings Corporate Events

Post Holdings to Acquire Remaining 8th Avenue Equity

On June 3, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. entered into a stock purchase agreement to acquire the remaining equity interests in its subsidiary, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc., that it does not already own. The acquisition, valued at approximately $880 million, includes the retirement of 8th Avenue’s outstanding debt and finance leases. The closing of the acquisition is expected on July 1, 2025, and will result in the termination of certain agreements with THL Equity Fund VIII Investors. This move is anticipated to streamline Post’s operations and potentially enhance its market positioning by fully integrating 8th Avenue into its corporate structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (POST) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Post Holdings stock, see the POST Stock Forecast page.

Post Holdings to Acquire 8th Avenue for $880 Million

On June 3, 2025, Post Holdings announced its agreement to acquire 8th Avenue Food & Provisions for approximately $880 million, with the transaction expected to close on July 1, 2025. This acquisition is anticipated to enhance Post’s portfolio diversification, internalize manufacturing for its Peter Pan® peanut butter, and expand into the dry pasta and granola categories. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to Post’s free cash flow and modestly increase its leverage ratio. Post updated its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $1,460-$1,500 million, reflecting the expected contributions from 8th Avenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (POST) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Post Holdings stock, see the POST Stock Forecast page.

Post Holdings Caps CEO Retirement Plan at $2.5M

On April 9, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. amended its 2024 Supplemental Executive Retirement Plan to cap the account balance of its President and CEO at $2.5 million, impacting future pay credits. This amendment reflects the company’s strategic decision to manage executive compensation and benefits, potentially influencing its financial planning and stakeholder relations.

Post Holdings Approves Performance-Based Stock Units for Executives

On March 27, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc.’s Corporate Governance and Compensation Committee approved performance-based restricted stock units (PRSUs) for key executives. These awards, part of the company’s long-term incentive plan, aim to align executive performance with shareholder interests, potentially impacting the company’s operational focus and stakeholder value.