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Post Holdings Inc (POST)
NYSE:POST

Post Holdings (POST) AI Stock Analysis

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Post Holdings

(NYSE:POST)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$123.00
▲(10.42%Upside)
The overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with strong cash flow management and strategic corporate actions. However, neutral technical indicators and modest revenue growth highlight areas for improvement. The recent acquisition and increased EBITDA guidance provide positive momentum for future performance.
Positive Factors
Earnings Performance
The strong first quarter performance and guidance raise should support an outperformance for the shares.
Profitability
Management focuses on profitability over topline growth, especially in retail, while it could also benefit from incremental avian-flu driven pricing and value-add foodservice products.
Valuation
With profit growth potential ahead of numerous food peers, a FCF yield of approximately 10%, and an aggressive share buyback strategy, the current valuation is seen as simply too low.
Negative Factors
Cost Pressures
POST expects to incur an incremental $30-$50 million in avian-flu related cost pressures.
Sales Performance
Consumer Brands sales are softer with net sales down 2.5% and organic sales down 6% due to an 8.8% decline in volume.
Strategic Challenges
Sales impacted by multiple strategic rationalizations and FQ2 faces temporary profit dislocation from unfavorable cost/pricing in eggs before expected recovery.

Post Holdings (POST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPost Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through five segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands. The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, and drug store customers, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels. The Weetabix segment primarily markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal, hot cereals and other cereal-based food products, breakfast drinks, and muesli. This segment sells its products to grocery stores, discounters, wholesalers, and convenience stores, as well as through ecommerce. The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg and potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels. It serves foodservice distributors and national restaurant chains. The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg products, sausages, cheese, and other dairy and refrigerated products for grocery stores and mass merchandise customers. The BellRing Brands segment markets and distributes ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars, and supplements. It serves club stores, food, drug and mass customers, and online retailers, as well as specialty retailers, convenience stores, and distributors. Post Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
How the Company Makes MoneyPost Holdings generates revenue through the sale of its diverse range of food products across various segments. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of branded and private label ready-to-eat cereals, egg and potato products, and refrigerated food items. Post Holdings leverages its extensive distribution network and partnerships with major retailers and foodservice operators to reach customers. Additionally, the company has a significant presence in the active nutrition category, offering protein shakes, bars, and powders under well-known brands. Strategic acquisitions and brand development further bolster its revenue, allowing Post Holdings to maintain a strong market presence and explore growth opportunities.

Post Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.48%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of challenges and achievements. While the company successfully managed significant challenges like Avian influenza and executed strong share repurchases, it faced volume declines in key segments and capital market uncertainties. The increased EBITDA guidance suggests confidence in overcoming these hurdles.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Foodservice Performance Despite Challenges
The Foodservice team managed to navigate the difficult egg markets due to Avian influenza, with Q2 Foodservice adjusted EBITDA only $20 million lower than Q1, better than the anticipated $30-$50 million drop.
Avian Influenza Impact Management
Avian influenza pricing became effective in April, and flock repopulation is on track, with expectations to balance egg sourcing and demand by Q4.
Successful Share Repurchases
The company repurchased approximately 6% of its shares since the beginning of the fiscal year, indicating strong capital allocation strategy.
Increased EBITDA Guidance
Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to a range of $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion.
Negative Updates
Decline in Cereal and Pet Volumes
Post Consumer Brands net sales decreased by 7%, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 5%, due to category dynamics and price elasticities.
Impact of Avian Influenza on Refrigerated Retail
Refrigerated Retail adjusted EBITDA declined by 14% due to Easter timing and costs ahead of pricing in eggs.
Challenges in Weetabix
Weetabix net sales decreased by 5%, with a 7% volume decline due to lower promotions and elasticities related to pricing decisions.
Uncertainty in M&A and Capital Markets
Recent tariff actions and capital market volatility slowed M&A activities, focusing on smaller tactical transactions.
Company Guidance
During the Post Holdings Second Quarter 2025 earnings call, several key metrics and guidance points were discussed. The company reported consolidated net sales of $2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $347 million, with a 2% sales decrease primarily due to lower volumes in retail businesses. The Foodservice segment's adjusted EBITDA was about $20 million lower than the previous quarter due to Avian influenza costs, although manufacturing and supply chain improvements partially mitigated this impact. Post Consumer Brands saw a 7% net sales decrease, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes down 5%. Despite these challenges, adjusted EBITDA for this segment increased by 2%, thanks to better cost management. The call also highlighted the expectation that the unfavorable cost impacts experienced in Q2 would be recovered in the latter half of fiscal 2025, and guidance for the fiscal year’s adjusted EBITDA was increased to a range of $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion. Additionally, the company has been actively repurchasing shares, having bought approximately 6% of the company since the beginning of the fiscal year, and it remains well-positioned for further capital allocation opportunities.

Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Post Holdings maintains a stable financial position with strengths in operational efficiency and cash flow management. The income statement reflects solid profitability, but modest revenue growth suggests a need for strategic growth initiatives. Moderate leverage in the balance sheet requires careful management to mitigate financial risk.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Post Holdings shows a stable financial performance with a strong gross profit margin of 29.1% and a net profit margin of 4.5% for TTM. Revenue growth is modest at -0.5% compared to the previous annual period, indicating the need for growth initiatives. The EBIT margin stands at 10.0% and EBITDA margin at 14.8%, reflecting solid operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in revenue suggests a need for market expansion or product innovation.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's financial stability is moderate, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.81, indicating a reliance on debt. The return on equity (ROE) is 9.3%, showing a decent return for shareholders, while the equity ratio is 29.9%, suggesting moderate leverage. While the equity ratio provides some buffer against financial risk, the high debt levels could pose a risk if not managed properly.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Post Holdings demonstrates strong cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 45.1% and a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.74 for TTM. This indicates efficient cash generation and the ability to fund operations and investments. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.04, reflecting effective capital expenditure management and strong cash profitability.
BreakdownTTMSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.88B7.92B6.99B5.85B6.23B5.70B
Gross Profit2.29B2.30B1.88B1.47B1.81B1.79B
EBITDA1.28B1.27B1.10B830.10M851.40M810.70M
Net Income357.30M366.70M301.30M756.60M250.60M59.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets12.80B12.85B11.65B11.31B12.41B12.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments617.60M787.40M103.90M681.30M817.10M1.19B
Total Debt6.95B7.06B6.23B5.96B7.04B7.02B
Total Liabilities8.96B8.75B7.80B7.74B9.36B9.32B
Stockholders Equity3.83B4.09B3.84B3.25B2.74B2.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow728.80M502.20M447.30M128.90M395.70M391.00M
Operating Cash Flow978.80M931.70M750.30M384.20M588.20M625.60M
Investing Cash Flow-587.10M-677.50M-669.30M-220.20M-793.60M-218.50M
Financing Cash Flow-114.20M415.60M-555.70M-237.20M-167.50M-272.00M

Post Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price111.39
Price Trends
50DMA
110.97
Positive
100DMA
112.49
Negative
200DMA
112.51
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.19
Positive
RSI
52.41
Neutral
STOCH
51.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 111.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.89, above the 50-day MA of 110.97, and below the 200-day MA of 112.51, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for POST.

Post Holdings Risk Analysis

Post Holdings disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Post Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Post Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
DADAR
81
Outperform
$6.03B36.993.79%-11.02%-68.34%
77
Outperform
$6.15B8.6123.47%2.44%3.82%
77
Outperform
$8.89B14.5916.31%2.31%-6.88%-4.93%
72
Outperform
$7.46B26.83-190.65%18.91%49.43%
71
Outperform
$6.21B20.099.15%1.48%9.36%
LWLW
68
Neutral
$7.39B20.5421.63%2.83%-2.49%-65.96%
65
Neutral
$27.25B15.35-4.01%3.14%1.00%1.98%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
POST
Post Holdings
111.39
6.63
6.33%
BRFS
BRF SA
3.59
-0.52
-12.65%
DAR
Darling Ingredients
39.24
3.11
8.61%
INGR
Ingredion
138.21
28.44
25.91%
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
52.76
-28.27
-34.89%
BRBR
BellRing Brands
57.50
-3.11
-5.13%

Post Holdings Corporate Events

M&A Transactions
Post Holdings Completes Acquisition of 8th Avenue
Positive
Jul 1, 2025

On July 1, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. announced the completion of its acquisition of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc. This acquisition is expected to enhance Post Holdings’ market position in the consumer packaged goods sector, particularly in the foodservice and retail channels, by expanding its portfolio with additional food products.

The most recent analyst rating on (POST) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Post Holdings stock, see the POST Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Post Holdings to Acquire Remaining 8th Avenue Equity
Positive
Jun 9, 2025

On June 3, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. entered into a stock purchase agreement to acquire the remaining equity interests in its subsidiary, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc., that it does not already own. The acquisition, valued at approximately $880 million, includes the retirement of 8th Avenue’s outstanding debt and finance leases. The closing of the acquisition is expected on July 1, 2025, and will result in the termination of certain agreements with THL Equity Fund VIII Investors. This move is anticipated to streamline Post’s operations and potentially enhance its market positioning by fully integrating 8th Avenue into its corporate structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (POST) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Post Holdings stock, see the POST Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Post Holdings to Acquire 8th Avenue for $880 Million
Positive
Jun 3, 2025

On June 3, 2025, Post Holdings announced its agreement to acquire 8th Avenue Food & Provisions for approximately $880 million, with the transaction expected to close on July 1, 2025. This acquisition is anticipated to enhance Post’s portfolio diversification, internalize manufacturing for its Peter Pan® peanut butter, and expand into the dry pasta and granola categories. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to Post’s free cash flow and modestly increase its leverage ratio. Post updated its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $1,460-$1,500 million, reflecting the expected contributions from 8th Avenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (POST) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Post Holdings stock, see the POST Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Post Holdings Caps CEO Retirement Plan at $2.5M
Neutral
Apr 11, 2025

On April 9, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. amended its 2024 Supplemental Executive Retirement Plan to cap the account balance of its President and CEO at $2.5 million, impacting future pay credits. This amendment reflects the company’s strategic decision to manage executive compensation and benefits, potentially influencing its financial planning and stakeholder relations.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 02, 2025