Want to see POST full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Post Holdings
(NYSE:POST)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$93.00
▲(2.30% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/07/26
The score is driven primarily by financial performance: strong and improving free cash flow is offset by high leverage and a sharp TTM revenue decline with thin net margins. Technicals are broadly neutral with longer-term trend pressure, while valuation looks reasonable on P/E. Earnings call messaging was balanced—guidance stability and operational progress tempered by cautious FY2027 outlook and inflation/rate-driven headwinds.
Positive Factors
Cash generation / FCF growth
Sizable and improving free cash flow (TTM FCF ~$0.82B; ~59% growth) provides durable internal funding for capex, portfolio actions, and debt paydown. Strong cash conversion reduces refinancing reliance and supports sustained capital allocation flexibility over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material leverage (TTM debt ~$7.6B; D/E ~2.48x) constrains financial flexibility, increases interest expense sensitivity to higher rates, and limits ability to absorb shocks or invest aggressively. This elevates refinancing and covenant risk over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation / FCF growth
Sizable and improving free cash flow (TTM FCF ~$0.82B; ~59% growth) provides durable internal funding for capex, portfolio actions, and debt paydown. Strong cash conversion reduces refinancing reliance and supports sustained capital allocation flexibility over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Post Holdings (POST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)836.05K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.2
Beta (1Y)0.06
Revenue Growth6.20%
EPS Growth-7.36%
CountryUS
Employees13,180
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.97
Shares Outstanding43,956,806
10 Day Avg. Volume813,120
30 Day Avg. Volume836,054
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-7.86
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.74
P/FCF Ratio12.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$108.33Price Target Upside19.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)7.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.30B
Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Post Holdings, Inc. functions as a prominent holding company within the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry, conducting business both domestically in the United States and across international markets. Its diverse operations are structured into...
How the Company Makes Money
Post Holdings makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling packaged foods, beverages, and food ingredients across its operating segments, generating revenue when products are shipped to and purchased by customers (e.g., retailers, distributo...
Post Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced mix of constructive operational progress (Foodservice normalization, asset optimization, material share repurchases YTD, early pet stabilization and improved marketing efficiency) and material near-term headwinds (ongoing volume pressures in cereal and pet value segments, higher-than-expected inflation, promotional dynamics, and higher interest rates prompting more debt focus). Management maintained guidance midpoint and narrowed the range, signaling confidence in near-term plans, but emphasized cautious assumptions for FY2027. Overall, the positives and negatives were roughly balanced.Positive Updates
Quarter Slightly Ahead of Expectations
Third quarter results were slightly ahead of expectations, driven by stronger-than-anticipated Foodservice performance and a narrowed fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range while maintaining the midpoint.
Negative Updates
Ongoing Volume Pressure Across Portfolio
Company cites ongoing volume pressure and category declines: cereal volumes have been down mid-single digits over the past two years and management expects cereal to move closer to category (~ -2.5% cited as an example) next year.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarter Slightly Ahead of Expectations
Third quarter results were slightly ahead of expectations, driven by stronger-than-anticipated Foodservice performance and a narrowed fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range while maintaining the midpoint.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management said Q3 results were slightly ahead of expectations and confirmed they are maintaining the midpoint of fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance while narrowing the range; they repurchased 4% of shares in the quarter (≈17% fiscal year‑to‑date) and remain comfortable targeting mid‑4s leverage, with no bond maturities for ~4 years. After adjusting FY26 for about $80 million of items affecting comparability, they enter FY2027 with a comparable adjusted EBITDA base of roughly $1.48 billion and a preliminary outlook that FY27 adjusted EBITDA will be generally flat to that level, supported by Foodservice (a normalized run‑rate they peg near $500 million), targeted pricing (expected later in the year), cost savings and line‑rate growth; management also noted CapEx pacing raised slightly at the low end, 10‑year refinancing rates have moved ~50 bps higher, inflation appears at the higher end of prior expectations, cereal category trends near a 2–2.5% decline (long‑term -1% to -2%), and pet market share is about 3–3.2%.Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.41B | 8.16B | 7.92B | 6.99B | 5.85B | 4.98B |
| Gross Profit | 2.26B | 2.15B | 2.16B | 1.76B | 1.26B | 1.23B |
| EBITDA | 1.67B | 1.33B | 1.27B | 1.10B | 1.59B | 913.10M |
| Net Income | 293.00M | 335.70M | 366.70M | 301.30M | 756.60M | 166.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.85B | 13.53B | 12.85B | 11.65B | 11.31B | 12.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 265.60M | 176.70M | 787.40M | 103.90M | 681.30M | 664.50M |
| Total Debt | 7.63B | 7.70B | 7.06B | 6.23B | 6.10B | 6.57B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.76B | 9.76B | 8.75B | 7.80B | 7.74B | 9.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.08B | 3.75B | 4.09B | 3.84B | 3.25B | 2.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 553.10M | 488.10M | 502.20M | 447.30M | 128.90M | 395.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 992.60M | 998.30M | 931.70M | 750.30M | 384.20M | 588.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -779.90M | -1.42B | -677.50M | -669.30M | -221.00M | -793.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.00B | -188.60M | 415.60M | -555.70M | -386.70M | -167.50M |
Post Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
90.91
Price Trends
87.65
Negative
93.53
Negative
97.73
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.01
Positive
36.09
Neutral
36.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 90.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 85.54, above the 50-day MA of 87.65, and below the 200-day MA of 97.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for POST.
Post Holdings Risk Analysis
Post Holdings disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Post Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Post Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $7.40B | 25.46 | 16.12% | 3.03% | 2.50% | -16.90% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
59 Neutral | $1.25B | 7.31 | -35.53% | ― | 5.86% | -19.48% | |
58 Neutral | $7.76B | -4.07 | -24.31% | 9.48% | -2.85% | -265.99% | |
56 Neutral | $3.47B | 13.15 | 8.69% | ― | 6.20% | -7.36% | |
46 Neutral | $1.58B | 27.40 | 4.13% | 11.21% | 3.80% | -68.17% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
POST
Post Holdings
78.52
-35.52
-31.15%
CAG
Conagra Brands
16.27
-1.95
-10.69%
FLO
Flowers Foods
7.10
-7.47
-51.27%
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
53.47
-1.81
-3.27%
BRBR
BellRing Brands
10.45
-29.46
-73.82%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.