Post Holdings (POST)
NYSE:POST
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Post Holdings
(NYSE:POST)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$113.00
▲(12.47% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is driven primarily by a steady-but-leveraged financial profile (thin net margins and elevated debt offset by meaningful free cash flow) and a clearly improved near-term outlook from the latest earnings call (EBITDA beat and raised guidance). Technicals are neutral-to-slightly supportive, while valuation (P/E ~19.7 with no dividend yield provided) is reasonable but not a strong positive.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Post's meaningful free cash flow (TTM OCF ~$924M; FCF ~$552M, +13%) provides durable internal funding for capex, working capital and shareholder returns. Over a 2–6 month horizon this supports flexibility for opportunistic M&A, buybacks or targeted reinvestment without relying on volatile external funding.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Reported leverage (~2.0x equity TTM) leaves limited room for shocks and increases sensitivity to higher rates. Elevated debt constrains strategic flexibility, raises interest expense risk and makes sustained buybacks or large acquisitions more conditional on refinancing or outsized cash generation over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Post's meaningful free cash flow (TTM OCF ~$924M; FCF ~$552M, +13%) provides durable internal funding for capex, working capital and shareholder returns. Over a 2–6 month horizon this supports flexibility for opportunistic M&A, buybacks or targeted reinvestment without relying on volatile external funding.
Read all positive factors
Post Holdings (POST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.82B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)743.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.2
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth2.97%
EPS Growth-2.68%
CountryUS
Employees11,480
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.13
Shares Outstanding47,956,720
10 Day Avg. Volume881,616
30 Day Avg. Volume743,571
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-7.85
Price to Book (P/B)1.61
Price to Sales (P/S)0.74
P/FCF Ratio12.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.57
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.07
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$128.50Price Target Upside27.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)7.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.42B
Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Post Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through five segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands. The Post ...
How the Company Makes Money
Post Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of its diverse food products across multiple segments. Key revenue streams include ready-to-eat cereals, which are marketed under well-known brands such as Grape Nuts and Honey Bunches of ...
Post Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed predominantly positive operational momentum: a sizable Q1 adjusted EBITDA beat, an upward revision to guidance, a higher and apparently sticky Foodservice normalized run rate (cited around $125M per quarter), continued share repurchases with net leverage held flat, and execution actions (plant closures, refrigerated private-label wins). Offsets and risks were discussed but largely characterized as transitory or manageable: cereal volume lag driven by deliberate promotional/assortment choices, pet price/mix tests causing near-term headwinds (~2 percentage points), RTD shake ramp inefficiencies, and typical seasonality pressure into Q2. Overall, positives (beat, guidance raise, deleveraging and cash returns) materially outweigh the challenges, which are mostly tactical or timing-related.Positive Updates
Q1 Adjusted EBITDA Beat
Company reported Q1 adjusted EBITDA 'well above expectations,' driving confidence in operating performance for fiscal 2026 (no dollar amount provided in transcript).
Negative Updates
Cereal Volume Behind Category
Post's cereal volume trailed the category in Q1, driven by reduced promotional spend and assortment adjustments that removed pounds from the business, even though dollar market share was flat year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q1 Adjusted EBITDA Beat
Company reported Q1 adjusted EBITDA 'well above expectations,' driving confidence in operating performance for fiscal 2026 (no dollar amount provided in transcript).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said fiscal 2026 is off to a strong start after delivering Q1 adjusted EBITDA “well above expectations,” and that an upward revision to Foodservice’s normalized run‑rate (analysts referenced roughly $125M/quarter) allowed them to significantly increase full‑year guidance; they described Foodservice as sticky with embedded growth and a ~3–4% organic growth profile (plus mix benefit from higher‑value eggs), noted egg‑price pass‑through on about a 90‑day lag, and said Q1 actions — including the sale of 8th Avenue Pasta and continued aggressive share repurchases — kept net leverage flat while preserving significant flexibility for opportunistic capital allocation.Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.36B | 8.16B | 7.92B | 6.99B | 5.85B | 4.98B |
| Gross Profit | 2.19B | 2.15B | 2.16B | 1.76B | 1.26B | 1.23B |
| EBITDA | 1.37B | 1.33B | 1.27B | 1.10B | 1.59B | 913.10M |
| Net Income | 319.20M | 335.70M | 366.70M | 301.30M | 756.60M | 166.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.98B | 13.53B | 12.85B | 11.65B | 11.31B | 12.41B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 279.30M | 176.70M | 787.40M | 103.90M | 681.30M | 664.50M |
| Total Debt | 7.46B | 7.70B | 7.06B | 6.23B | 6.10B | 6.57B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.52B | 9.76B | 8.75B | 7.80B | 7.74B | 9.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.46B | 3.75B | 4.09B | 3.84B | 3.25B | 2.74B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 436.00M | 488.10M | 502.20M | 447.30M | 128.90M | 395.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 923.60M | 998.30M | 931.70M | 750.30M | 384.20M | 588.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -1.42B | -677.50M | -669.30M | -221.00M | -793.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -490.20M | -188.60M | 415.60M | -555.70M | -386.70M | -167.50M |
Post Holdings Technical Analysis
Neutral
100.47
Price Trends
102.70
Negative
101.58
Negative
104.43
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.24
Negative
52.01
Neutral
85.75
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 100.47 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 98.38, below the 50-day MA of 102.70, and below the 200-day MA of 104.43, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for POST.
Post Holdings Risk Analysis
Post Holdings disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Post Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Post Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $4.82B | 13.23 | 8.49% | ― | 2.97% | -2.68% | |
60 Neutral | $5.55B | 30.39 | 16.90% | 3.37% | 2.35% | 9.61% | |
57 Neutral | $1.84B | 18.24 | -47.89% | ― | 16.05% | -10.17% | |
54 Neutral | $7.55B | 11.30 | -0.51% | 7.87% | -5.82% | -119.70% | |
52 Neutral | $1.75B | 27.30 | 6.02% | 9.15% | 0.26% | -19.45% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
POST
Post Holdings
100.47
-11.44
-10.22%
CAG
Conagra Brands
15.78
-7.46
-32.10%
FLO
Flowers Foods
8.25
-8.00
-49.25%
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
40.17
-10.87
-21.29%
BRBR
BellRing Brands
15.73
-53.94
-77.42%
Post Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Post Holdings Prices Upsized $600 Million Senior Notes
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Post Holdings, Inc. announced it had priced an upsized $600 million offering of 6.250% senior unsecured notes due 2034 at 100.75% of principal, plus accrued interest from October 15, 2025, with a yield to worst of 6.109%. The not...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Post Holdings Plans $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
On March 4, 2026, Post Holdings, Inc. announced plans to launch a private offering of $500 million in additional 6.250% senior notes due 2034, which will form part of the same unsecured, guaranteed series as the $600 million of existing notes with...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Post Holdings boosts buybacks amid raised 2026 outlook
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 3, 2026, Post Holdings’ board appointed Michelle M. Atkinson and former longtime executive Jeff A. Zadoks as directors, effective March 15, 2026, expanding the board to nine members; Atkinson was deemed independent under NYSE rul...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Post Holdings Names New Post Consumer Brands CEO
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
On February 5, 2026, Post Holdings announced that Greg Pearson will become President and Chief Executive Officer of its Post Consumer Brands segment effective April 1, 2026, succeeding Nicolas Catoggio, who recently took on the role of Executive V...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Post Holdings Shareholders Approve Governance Changes at Meeting
Positive
Feb 4, 2026
Post Holdings, a consumer packaged goods company, held its 2026 Annual Meeting of shareholders virtually via audio webcast on January 29, 2026, with 94.84% of eligible shares represented, underscoring strong shareholder engagement. All board nomin...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Post Holdings refinances debt with new long-term notes
Neutral
Dec 19, 2025
On December 15, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. issued $1.3 billion of 6.50% senior unsecured notes due March 15, 2036, to institutional and non-U.S. investors, with semi-annual interest payments starting March 15, 2026, and full and unconditional guara...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.