Post Holdings (POST) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.99B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 692.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.11
• Revenue Growth: 1.48%
• EPS Growth: 9.36%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,480
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 54
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 1.41
• Shares Outstanding: 55,718,597
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 770,181
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 692,296
• PEG Ratio: -0.12
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.56
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.04
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.39
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.37
• 1Y Price Target: $132.14
• Price Target Upside: 22.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: $121.00 ▲(12.56%Upside)

Post Holdings shows a stable financial performance and strong cash flow management, supported by strategic acquisitions enhancing market position. However, weak technical indicators and modest revenue growth highlight areas for improvement. The increased EBITDA guidance and positive corporate events contribute positively to the outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

The strong first quarter performance and guidance raise should support an outperformance for the shares.

Profitability

Management focuses on profitability over topline growth, especially in retail, while it could also benefit from incremental avian-flu driven pricing and value-add foodservice products.

Valuation

With profit growth potential ahead of numerous food peers, a FCF yield of approximately 10%, and an aggressive share buyback strategy, the current valuation is seen as simply too low.

Negative Factors

Cost Pressures

POST expects to incur an incremental $30-$50 million in avian-flu related cost pressures.

Sales Performance

Consumer Brands sales are softer with net sales down 2.5% and organic sales down 6% due to an 8.8% decline in volume.

Strategic Challenges

Sales impacted by multiple strategic rationalizations and FQ2 faces temporary profit dislocation from unfavorable cost/pricing in eggs before expected recovery.

Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Post Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through five segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands. The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, and drug store customers, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels. The Weetabix segment primarily markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal, hot cereals and other cereal-based food products, breakfast drinks, and muesli. This segment sells its products to grocery stores, discounters, wholesalers, and convenience stores, as well as through ecommerce. The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg and potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels. It serves foodservice distributors and national restaurant chains. The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg products, sausages, cheese, and other dairy and refrigerated products for grocery stores and mass merchandise customers. The BellRing Brands segment markets and distributes ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars, and supplements. It serves club stores, food, drug and mass customers, and online retailers, as well as specialty retailers, convenience stores, and distributors. Post Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.

How the Company Makes Money

Post Holdings generates revenue through the sale of its diverse range of food products across various segments. The company's primary revenue streams include the sale of branded and private label ready-to-eat cereals, egg and potato products, and refrigerated food items. Post Holdings leverages its extensive distribution network and partnerships with major retailers and foodservice operators to reach customers. Additionally, the company has a significant presence in the active nutrition category, offering protein shakes, bars, and powders under well-known brands. Strategic acquisitions and brand development further bolster its revenue, allowing Post Holdings to maintain a strong market presence and explore growth opportunities.

Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Post Holdings maintains a stable financial position with strong operational efficiency and cash flow management. However, modest revenue growth and high leverage require strategic initiatives for growth and careful debt management.

Income Statement

Post Holdings shows a stable financial performance with a strong gross profit margin of 29.1% and a net profit margin of 4.5% for TTM. Revenue growth is modest at -0.5% compared to the previous annual period, indicating the need for growth initiatives. The EBIT margin stands at 10.0% and EBITDA margin at 14.8%, reflecting solid operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in revenue suggests a need for market expansion or product innovation.

Balance Sheet

The company's financial stability is moderate, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.81, indicating a reliance on debt. The return on equity (ROE) is 9.3%, showing a decent return for shareholders, while the equity ratio is 29.9%, suggesting moderate leverage. While the equity ratio provides some buffer against financial risk, the high debt levels could pose a risk if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

Post Holdings demonstrates strong cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 45.1% and a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.74 for TTM. This indicates efficient cash generation and the ability to fund operations and investments. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.04, reflecting effective capital expenditure management and strong cash profitability.

Breakdown	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.92B	6.99B	5.85B	6.23B	5.70B
Gross Profit	2.30B	1.88B	1.47B	1.81B	1.79B
EBITDA	1.27B	1.10B	830.10M	851.40M	810.70M
Net Income	366.70M	301.30M	756.60M	166.70M	800.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.85B	11.65B	11.31B	12.41B	12.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	787.40M	103.90M	681.30M	817.10M	1.19B
Total Debt	7.06B	6.23B	5.96B	7.04B	7.02B
Total Liabilities	8.75B	7.80B	7.74B	9.36B	9.32B
Stockholders Equity	4.09B	3.84B	3.25B	2.74B	2.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	502.20M	447.30M	128.90M	395.70M	391.00M
Operating Cash Flow	931.70M	750.30M	384.20M	588.20M	625.60M
Investing Cash Flow	-677.50M	-669.30M	-220.20M	-793.60M	-218.50M
Financing Cash Flow	415.60M	-555.70M	-237.20M	-167.50M	-272.00M

Post Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 107.50
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 107.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.66, below the 50-day MA of 109.32, and below the 200-day MA of 111.93, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for POST.

Post Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DAR	81 Outperform	$5.83B	34.75	3.79%	―	-11.02%	-68.34%
BRFS	78 Outperform	$6.58B	9.38	23.47%	2.23%	3.82%	―
INGR	77 Outperform	$8.63B	14.16	16.31%	2.39%	-6.88%	-4.93%
BRBR	72 Outperform	$7.02B	25.80	-190.65%	―	18.91%	49.43%
POST	72 Outperform	$5.99B	19.39	9.15%	―	1.48%	9.36%
LW	68 Neutral	$6.94B	19.28	20.26%	2.55%	-2.49%	-65.96%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$27.21B	15.46	-4.29%	3.19%	1.01%	3.46%

Post Holdings Corporate Events

Post Holdings Completes Acquisition of 8th Avenue

On July 1, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. announced the completion of its acquisition of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc. This acquisition is expected to enhance Post Holdings’ market position in the consumer packaged goods sector, particularly in the foodservice and retail channels, by expanding its portfolio with additional food products.

The most recent analyst rating on (POST) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Post Holdings stock, see the POST Stock Forecast page.

Post Holdings to Acquire Remaining 8th Avenue Equity

On June 3, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. entered into a stock purchase agreement to acquire the remaining equity interests in its subsidiary, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc., that it does not already own. The acquisition, valued at approximately $880 million, includes the retirement of 8th Avenue’s outstanding debt and finance leases. The closing of the acquisition is expected on July 1, 2025, and will result in the termination of certain agreements with THL Equity Fund VIII Investors. This move is anticipated to streamline Post’s operations and potentially enhance its market positioning by fully integrating 8th Avenue into its corporate structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (POST) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Post Holdings stock, see the POST Stock Forecast page.

Post Holdings to Acquire 8th Avenue for $880 Million

On June 3, 2025, Post Holdings announced its agreement to acquire 8th Avenue Food & Provisions for approximately $880 million, with the transaction expected to close on July 1, 2025. This acquisition is anticipated to enhance Post’s portfolio diversification, internalize manufacturing for its Peter Pan® peanut butter, and expand into the dry pasta and granola categories. The acquisition is expected to be accretive to Post’s free cash flow and modestly increase its leverage ratio. Post updated its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $1,460-$1,500 million, reflecting the expected contributions from 8th Avenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (POST) stock is a Buy with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Post Holdings stock, see the POST Stock Forecast page.