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Post Holdings Inc. Common Stoc (POST)
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Post Holdings (POST) AI Stock Analysis

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POST

Post Holdings

(NYSE:POST)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$121.00
▲(11.74% Upside)
Post Holdings' overall score reflects strong financial performance and strategic corporate actions, such as acquisitions and share buybacks. However, high leverage and challenges in key segments weigh on the score. The technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, which also affects the overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Guidance and Performance
The strong first quarter performance and guidance raise should support an outperformance for the shares.
Profitability Strategy
Management focuses on profitability over topline growth, especially in retail, while it could also benefit from incremental avian-flu driven pricing and value-add foodservice products.
Share Buyback
Post repurchased 1.6m shares in the quarter for $181.1 million and repurchased an additional 1m shares for $106.9 million subsequent to the quarter.
Negative Factors
Cost Pressures
POST expects to incur an incremental $30-$50mm in avian-flu related cost pressures in FQ2.
Sales Performance
Consumer Brands Sales Softer; Margin Upside: Net sales -2.5% with organic sales -6% (volume -8.8%).
Volume Pressures
Volume softer on Pet, Weetabix, and cheese/egg distribution loss.

Post Holdings (POST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Post Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPost Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company in the United States and internationally. It operates through five segments: Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Foodservice, Refrigerated Retail, and BellRing Brands. The Post Consumer Brands segment manufactures, markets, and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and hot cereal products. It serves grocery stores, mass merchandise customers, supercenters, club stores, natural/specialty stores, and drug store customers, as well as sells its products in the military, ecommerce, and foodservice channels. The Weetabix segment primarily markets and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal, hot cereals and other cereal-based food products, breakfast drinks, and muesli. This segment sells its products to grocery stores, discounters, wholesalers, and convenience stores, as well as through ecommerce. The Foodservice segment produces and distributes egg and potato products in the foodservice and food ingredient channels. It serves foodservice distributors and national restaurant chains. The Refrigerated Retail segment produces and distributes side dishes, eggs and egg products, sausages, cheese, and other dairy and refrigerated products for grocery stores and mass merchandise customers. The BellRing Brands segment markets and distributes ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shakes, other RTD beverages, powders, nutrition bars, and supplements. It serves club stores, food, drug and mass customers, and online retailers, as well as specialty retailers, convenience stores, and distributors. Post Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
How the Company Makes MoneyPost Holdings generates revenue through multiple key streams primarily focused on the sale of branded and private label food products. Its revenue model is built around the production and distribution of breakfast cereals, snacks, and nutritional products, which are sold through various channels including grocery stores, mass retailers, and food service establishments. The company benefits from established brand loyalty and market presence, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing and drive sales. Additionally, strategic partnerships and acquisitions, such as the integration of brands like Bob's Red Mill and the acquisition of various snack and nutrition brands, enhance its product offerings and expand its market reach, contributing significantly to its earnings. The company also leverages economies of scale and efficient supply chain management to optimize profitability.

Post Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 07, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of positive outcomes, such as strong adjusted EBITDA and strategic acquisitions, alongside challenges in key segments like cereal and pet. The company's proactive measures in cost optimization, tax reductions, and share buybacks reflect a solid strategy, but the volume declines in core segments indicate ongoing challenges.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA approached $400 million, indicating strong performance despite a challenging macro environment.
Successful Acquisition of 8th Avenue
The acquisition of 8th Avenue closed on July 1, 2025, with clear synergies identified, particularly in nut butter and granola.
Reduction in Cash Taxes
Recent tax law changes are projected to result in a $300 million reduction in cash taxes paid over the next 5 years.
Share Buybacks
The company has aggressively bought back 8% of the company fiscal year-to-date.
Weetabix and UFIT Performance
Weetabix's flagship product grew consumption volumes by 2.4% year-over-year, and UFIT grew volumes by 31%.
Negative Updates
Cereal and Pet Volume Declines
Post Consumer Brands faced volume challenges with cereal volumes declining 4.9% and pet volumes declining 3.7% year-over-year.
Gravy Train and Nutrish Challenges
Gravy Train saw price elasticities, and Nutrish experienced larger-than-expected declines post-relaunch.
Lower Net Sales for Post Consumer Brands
Net sales for Post Consumer Brands decreased by 9%, driven by lower volumes in grocery and pet segments.
Impact of Avian Influenza
Temporary Avian Influenza pricing adjustments were made to recover costs, indicating ongoing challenges in the foodservice segment.
Company Guidance
In the third quarter of fiscal 2025, Post Holdings reported strong financial performance despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, with adjusted EBITDA nearing $400 million. The company highlighted several key developments, including the acquisition of 8th Avenue, which was finalized on July 1, and is expected to yield synergies with the PCB segment, particularly in nut butter and granola. Post Holdings also continued to actively repurchase shares, buying back 8% of the company fiscal year-to-date. The company anticipates significant tax benefits from recent tax law changes, estimating a $300 million reduction in cash taxes over the next five years. In terms of segment performance, Post Consumer Brands faced volume challenges, with cereal volumes down 6% and pet volumes declining 13% year-over-year. However, the Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail segments experienced growth, driven by temporary Avian Influenza pricing and increased volumes. Looking ahead, Post Holdings expects a strong finish to fiscal 2025, with a focus on cost optimization and targeted investments to drive volume growth. The company raised its adjusted EBITDA guidance range from $1.5 billion to $1.52 billion, reflecting the inclusion of 8th Avenue's full-quarter results and offsetting normalization within other portfolio segments.

Post Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Post Holdings maintains a stable financial position with strengths in operational efficiency and cash flow management. While the income statement reflects solid profitability, modest revenue growth suggests a need for strategic growth initiatives. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage, which requires careful management to mitigate financial risk. Strong cash flow performance supports the company's operational and strategic flexibility.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Post Holdings shows a stable financial performance with a strong gross profit margin of 29.1% and a net profit margin of 4.5% for TTM. Revenue growth is modest at -0.5% compared to the previous annual period, indicating the need for growth initiatives. The EBIT margin stands at 10.0% and EBITDA margin at 14.8%, reflecting solid operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in revenue suggests a need for market expansion or product innovation.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's financial stability is moderate, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.81, indicating a reliance on debt. The return on equity (ROE) is 9.3%, showing a decent return for shareholders, while the equity ratio is 29.9%, suggesting moderate leverage. While the equity ratio provides some buffer against financial risk, the high debt levels could pose a risk if not managed properly.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Post Holdings demonstrates strong cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of 45.1% and a robust operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.74 for TTM. This indicates efficient cash generation and the ability to fund operations and investments. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.04, reflecting effective capital expenditure management and strong cash profitability.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue7.92B7.92B6.99B5.85B4.98B4.71B
Gross Profit2.31B2.30B1.88B1.47B1.43B1.45B
EBITDA1.31B1.27B1.10B830.10M913.10M633.00M
Net Income366.10M366.70M301.30M756.60M166.70M800.00K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.37B12.85B11.65B11.31B12.41B12.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.06B787.40M103.90M681.30M664.50M1.19B
Total Debt7.35B7.06B6.23B6.10B6.57B7.15B
Total Liabilities9.36B8.75B7.80B7.74B9.36B9.32B
Stockholders Equity4.00B4.09B3.84B3.25B2.74B2.85B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow563.70M502.20M447.30M128.90M395.70M391.00M
Operating Cash Flow932.40M931.70M750.30M384.20M588.20M625.60M
Investing Cash Flow-612.60M-677.50M-669.30M-220.20M-793.60M-218.50M
Financing Cash Flow396.20M415.60M-555.70M-237.20M-167.50M-272.00M

Post Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price108.29
Price Trends
50DMA
108.19
Positive
100DMA
109.88
Negative
200DMA
111.41
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.69
Positive
RSI
46.11
Neutral
STOCH
11.38
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For POST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 108.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 110.10, above the 50-day MA of 108.19, and below the 200-day MA of 111.41, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.38 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for POST.

Post Holdings Risk Analysis

Post Holdings disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Post Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Post Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$6.13B9.5321.17%2.38%-1.19%78.79%
75
Outperform
$5.86B18.549.23%0.80%10.43%
72
Outperform
$9.04B7.8813.27%7.26%-3.64%231.77%
69
Neutral
$7.77B22.2820.26%2.53%-0.25%-49.73%
63
Neutral
$3.09B14.1415.61%6.58%-0.61%70.09%
63
Neutral
$20.50B14.76-2.72%3.09%1.90%-4.74%
59
Neutral
$5.38B22.56-190.65%16.27%5.13%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
POST
Post Holdings
108.29
-8.24
-7.07%
BRFS
BRF SA
3.66
-0.68
-15.67%
CAG
Conagra Brands
19.28
-11.69
-37.75%
FLO
Flowers Foods
14.81
-7.39
-33.29%
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
58.00
-3.65
-5.92%
BRBR
BellRing Brands
39.46
-18.22
-31.59%

Post Holdings Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsStock Buyback
Post Holdings Announces $500M Share Repurchase Plan
Positive
Aug 29, 2025

On August 29, 2025, Post Holdings announced a definitive agreement to sell the pasta business of its subsidiary, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, to Richardson (US) Holdings Limited for $375 million in cash and the assumption of $80 million in leaseback financial liabilities. This transaction is expected to close in the first fiscal quarter of 2026, with Post retaining the nut butters, fruit and nut products, and granola businesses, which are projected to contribute $45-50 million in Adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2026. Additionally, Post’s Board of Directors approved a new $500 million share repurchase authorization effective August 29, 2025, replacing the previous authorization and allowing flexibility in repurchasing shares without obligating the company to acquire any specific number.

Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Post Holdings Announces Leadership Change with New COO
Neutral
Aug 7, 2025

On August 5, 2025, Post Holdings announced the retirement of Jeff A. Zadoks from his role as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective January 2, 2026, with Nicolas Catoggio set to succeed him. Catoggio, who has been with Post Consumer Brands since 2021, brings over two decades of experience in the consumer goods industry, including significant roles at Boston Consulting Group and Unilever. In its third fiscal quarter ending June 30, 2025, Post Holdings reported net sales of $2.0 billion and an operating profit of $234.6 million, with a notable increase in Adjusted EBITDA. The company also raised its fiscal year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA outlook, reflecting strong performance in segments like Foodservice and Refrigerated Retail, despite challenges in Post Consumer Brands and Weetabix.

M&A Transactions
Post Holdings Completes Acquisition of 8th Avenue
Positive
Jul 1, 2025

On July 1, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. announced the completion of its acquisition of 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc. This acquisition is expected to enhance Post Holdings’ market position in the consumer packaged goods sector, particularly in the foodservice and retail channels, by expanding its portfolio with additional food products.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Post Holdings to Acquire Remaining 8th Avenue Equity
Positive
Jun 9, 2025

On June 3, 2025, Post Holdings, Inc. entered into a stock purchase agreement to acquire the remaining equity interests in its subsidiary, 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc., that it does not already own. The acquisition, valued at approximately $880 million, includes the retirement of 8th Avenue’s outstanding debt and finance leases. The closing of the acquisition is expected on July 1, 2025, and will result in the termination of certain agreements with THL Equity Fund VIII Investors. This move is anticipated to streamline Post’s operations and potentially enhance its market positioning by fully integrating 8th Avenue into its corporate structure.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 05, 2025