Flowers Foods (FLO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.13B
• Dividend Yield: 6.52%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.68M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.8
• Beta (1Y): -0.02
• Revenue Growth: -0.61%
• EPS Growth: 70.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,200
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 49
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.30
• Shares Outstanding: 211,178,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,332,133
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,682,559
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.73
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.19
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.61
• 1Y Price Target: $15.33
• Price Target Upside: 3.30% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.50 ▲(11.19% Upside)

Flowers Foods' overall score reflects strong financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by bearish technical indicators and challenges highlighted in the earnings call. The company's strategic focus on premium segments is promising, but increased leverage and competitive pressures pose risks.

Positive Factors

Brand Strategy

Management's approach in creating smaller loaves to help consumers stay within budget and expanding the DKB brand into new formats is appreciated.

Margins

Adjusted gross margins expanded driven by improved input costs and optimization of the non-retail business.

Market Position

The company is well positioned with its portfolio of healthier brands for the continued decline of the white bread segment.

Negative Factors

Competitive Pressure

The likelihood exists that competitors start to step up their own activities, leading to incremental brand support needs for FLO.

Sales Growth

It is tough to get excited about another year of tepid sales growth.

White Bread Segment

White bread remains a large part of the overall business, and at least low single-digit top line growth is necessary to gain investor attention.

Flowers Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Flowers Foods, Inc. is a leading producer and marketer of packaged bakery foods in the United States. Founded in 1919 and headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia, the company operates in the baked goods sector and offers a wide range of products including bread, buns, rolls, and snack cakes. Its portfolio features well-known brands such as Nature's Own, Wonder Bread, and Dave's Killer Bread, catering to both retail and foodservice markets. Flowers Foods leverages its extensive distribution network to provide fresh bakery products across various channels.

How the Company Makes Money

Flowers Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its bakery products to grocery stores, mass merchandisers, convenience stores, and foodservice operators. The company has a diversified revenue model that includes both direct sales and distribution agreements. Key revenue streams include the sale of branded products, private label offerings, and specialty items. Additionally, Flowers Foods forms partnerships with distributors and retailers to expand its market reach and enhance product visibility. The company's strategic acquisitions of other bakery brands also contribute to its earnings by broadening its product portfolio and increasing market share.

Flowers Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Flowers Foods shows strong revenue growth and efficient cash flow management, with a robust free cash flow growth rate of 20.3% TTM. However, increased leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.51 and slight pressure on net profit margins highlight areas for caution.

Income Statement

Flowers Foods shows a strong gross profit margin of around 49.6% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 4.5% from 4.9% in the previous year, reflecting some pressure on net earnings. Revenue growth is robust at 35.1% TTM, driven by increased sales, although this is a significant jump from the previous year's modest growth, suggesting potential volatility.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.51 TTM, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity is healthy at 16.2%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 32.8%, suggesting a balanced capital structure but with room for improvement in reducing debt levels.

Cash Flow

Flowers Foods demonstrates strong cash flow management, with a free cash flow growth rate of 20.3% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.78, reflecting solid cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.72 suggests efficient cash utilization relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.10B	5.10B	5.09B	4.81B	4.33B	4.39B
Gross Profit	2.48B	2.53B	2.46B	2.30B	2.16B	2.19B
EBITDA	510.91M	525.65M	345.80M	469.96M	438.99M	380.74M
Net Income	219.47M	248.12M	123.42M	228.39M	206.19M	152.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.34B	3.40B	3.43B	3.31B	3.25B	3.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.04M	5.00M	22.53M	165.13M	185.87M	307.48M
Total Debt	2.33B	1.36B	1.35B	1.19B	1.21B	1.32B
Total Liabilities	2.92B	1.99B	2.08B	1.87B	1.84B	1.95B
Stockholders Equity	1.43B	1.41B	1.35B	1.44B	1.41B	1.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	383.50M	280.58M	220.28M	191.82M	133.76M	356.54M
Operating Cash Flow	510.71M	412.66M	349.35M	360.89M	344.61M	454.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-967.55M	-172.67M	-403.81M	-151.09M	-191.44M	-73.99M
Financing Cash Flow	461.02M	-257.52M	-88.15M	-222.17M	-274.78M	-84.04M

Flowers Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.84
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.94, below the 50-day MA of 15.93, and below the 200-day MA of 18.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.02 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLO.

Flowers Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MZTI	77 Outperform	$5.00B	30.48	17.35%	2.07%	2.00%	5.39%
SMPL	71 Outperform	$2.89B	20.10	8.22%	―	14.22%	-1.81%
NOMD	69 Neutral	$2.37B	10.67	7.88%	4.28%	0.87%	8.59%
JJSF	65 Neutral	$2.21B	26.92	8.79%	2.75%	0.50%	-4.46%
FLO	63 Neutral	$3.13B	14.77	15.61%	6.52%	-0.61%	70.09%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.46B	14.51	-3.60%	3.15%	2.60%	-5.31%
THS	61 Neutral	$893.35M	45.21	1.34%	―	-1.52%	―

Flowers Foods Corporate Events

Flowers Foods Holds Annual Shareholders Meeting

On May 22, 2025, Flowers Foods, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders where all 11 director-nominees were elected for one-year terms. The shareholders approved the executive compensation and ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent public accounting firm. However, a shareholder proposal to adopt a policy for an independent board chair was not approved.