Flowers Foods (FLO)
NYSE:FLO
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Flowers Foods
(NYSE:FLO)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(3.16% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and higher leverage, reinforced by flat 2026 guidance and near-term balance-sheet/dividend uncertainty discussed on the earnings call. These risks are partly offset by solid cash generation, neutral technicals, and a moderate P/E with a high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Direct-store-delivery (DSD) distribution advantage
A national DSD network supplying ~85% of sales secures in-store shelf presence, freshness and execution versus third-party distribution. This durable capability supports branded penetration, faster retail restocking and promotional control, underpinning long-term revenue stability and customer relationships.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and upcoming refinancing
Material increase in leverage (debt ~$2.33B; D/E ~1.79x) reduces financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk. With a large bond maturing and rates higher, refinancing could increase interest expense and constrain capital allocation unless profitability or cash flow meaningfully improves over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Direct-store-delivery (DSD) distribution advantage
A national DSD network supplying ~85% of sales secures in-store shelf presence, freshness and execution versus third-party distribution. This durable capability supports branded penetration, faster retail restocking and promotional control, underpinning long-term revenue stability and customer relationships.
Read all positive factors
Flowers Foods (FLO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.75B
Dividend Yield9.15%
Average Volume (3M)5.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.3
Beta (1Y)0.13
Revenue Growth0.26%
EPS Growth-19.45%
CountryUS
Employees10,200
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding211,554,320
10 Day Avg. Volume5,138,986
30 Day Avg. Volume5,481,976
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.41
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio7.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.33Price Target Upside13.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.83
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.19B
Flowers Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery products in the United States. It offers fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas, as well as frozen breads and rolls under the Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon...
How the Company Makes Money
Flowers Foods makes money primarily by producing and selling packaged bakery products to retailers and foodservice customers. Its core revenue stream is net sales from branded products (e.g., breads, buns/rolls, and related bakery categories) wher...
Flowers Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced mix of positives and negatives: management delivered results at the high end of 2025 guidance and highlighted strength and innovation in premium and DKB platforms (including Simple Mills' product pipeline), and they have launched a comprehensive multiyear review to address weaknesses. Offsetting this are meaningful near-term headwinds — a weak traditional loaf segment (Nature’s Own), guidance reflecting a ~4% category decline and a one‑week timing headwind, Simple Mills' near-term sales/margin disruptions, and capital allocation uncertainty around the dividend and leverage/covenant proximity. Overall, the company is taking proactive steps but faces notable execution and financial challenges in the near term.Positive Updates
Results at High End of 2025 Guidance
Management stated they produced results at the high end of the company's 2025 guidance range, reflecting disciplined execution of efficiency initiatives and brand performance.
Negative Updates
Traditional Loaf Underperformance (Nature’s Own)
Traditional loaf is under-indexing the category and is the principal drag on overall performance; management called out Nature’s Own reinvigoration as a key focus because ongoing weakness causes operating deleverage.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Results at High End of 2025 Guidance
Management stated they produced results at the high end of the company's 2025 guidance range, reflecting disciplined execution of efficiency initiatives and brand performance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said 2026 guidance is essentially flat (a range down roughly 180 basis points to slightly up) against an expected category decline of about 4%, with headwinds including one fewer week (~150 bps), inflationary pressures and increased brand investments; they noted they finished 2025 at the high end of guidance and cited a $0.08 EPS drag from incentive‑compensation adjustments. Simple Mills grew ~14% in 4Q (below its prior FY target of 20–23%), had 4Q EBITDA margin of ~11% versus ~16% in Q1–Q3, but is expected to deliver double‑digit top‑line growth in 2026 and launched 13 new items. On capital and the balance sheet, maintenance CapEx is roughly $2.0M per bakery per year, the ERP project runs into 2026–27, a $400M bond matures in October for refinancing, analysts pegged net debt at about 3.5–3.75x EBITDA (near the 3.75x covenant), DSD represents ~85% of the business, and the dividend policy is under Board review given EPS guidance and payout implications.Flowers Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
60
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.26B | 5.10B | 5.09B | 4.81B | 4.33B |
| Gross Profit | 2.40B | 2.53B | 2.46B | 2.30B | 2.16B |
| EBITDA | 341.79M | 525.28M | 345.43M | 469.59M | 438.87M |
| Net Income | 83.83M | 248.12M | 123.42M | 228.39M | 206.19M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.18B | 3.40B | 3.43B | 3.31B | 3.25B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.10M | 5.00M | 22.53M | 165.13M | 185.87M |
| Total Debt | 2.33B | 1.36B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.88B | 1.99B | 2.08B | 1.87B | 1.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.30B | 1.41B | 1.35B | 1.44B | 1.41B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 319.09M | 280.58M | 220.28M | 191.82M | 133.76M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 446.20M | 412.66M | 349.35M | 360.89M | 344.61M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -943.15M | -172.67M | -403.81M | -151.09M | -191.44M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 504.05M | -257.52M | -88.15M | -222.17M | -274.78M |
Flowers Foods Technical Analysis
Negative
8.24
Price Trends
9.61
Negative
10.06
Negative
11.87
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.37
Negative
34.37
Neutral
37.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.24 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.48, below the 50-day MA of 9.61, and below the 200-day MA of 11.87, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 34.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLO.
Flowers Foods Risk Analysis
Flowers Foods disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Flowers Foods reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Flowers Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $1.51B | 491.43 | 6.48% | 3.53% | 0.54% | -24.42% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $1.32B | 19.23 | 5.04% | ― | 8.98% | -26.29% | |
61 Neutral | $4.81B | 13.23 | 8.49% | ― | 2.97% | -2.68% | |
61 Neutral | $768.15M | 27.76 | 9.29% | ― | 11.31% | 99.83% | |
54 Neutral | $1.75B | 27.30 | 6.02% | 9.15% | 0.26% | -19.45% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
FLO
Flowers Foods
8.25
-8.62
-51.10%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
80.27
-48.51
-37.67%
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
14.22
-19.67
-58.04%
POST
Post Holdings
100.47
-13.72
-12.02%
STKL
SunOpta
6.49
2.52
63.48%
Flowers Foods Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Flowers Foods Streamlines Leadership, Eliminates Chief Growth Officer Role
Neutral
Mar 30, 2026
On March 25, 2026, Flowers Foods and chief growth officer Terry Thomas agreed he would depart the company and his role would be dissolved effective April 24, 2026, with Thomas receiving a severance package including cash and extended medical cover...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Flowers Foods Announces Board Changes and Planned Downsizing
Neutral
Feb 23, 2026
On February 17, 2026, Flowers Foods announced that long-serving director and former executive George E. Deese, after 61 years with the company, will retire from its board at the end of his current term and will not stand for re-election at the 202...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.