Flowers Foods (FLO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.34B
• Dividend Yield: 8.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.59M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.03
• Revenue Growth: 0.26%
• EPS Growth: -19.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,200
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 211,178,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,496,771
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,586,197
• PEG Ratio: 0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.98
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.01
• 1Y Price Target: $11.67
• Price Target Upside: 5.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▲(13.33% Upside)

Flowers Foods' overall score is driven by strong financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by bearish technical indicators and challenges highlighted in the earnings call. The company's strategic efforts and high dividend yield are positive, but increased leverage and market pressures require careful management.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Management

Strong cash flow management indicates robust operational efficiency, enabling the company to reinvest in growth opportunities and manage debt effectively.

Strategic Realignment

Strategic realignment with consumer demand positions Flowers Foods to capture market share in growing segments, enhancing long-term competitiveness.

Brand Growth

Growth in key brands like Canyon and Dave's Killer Bread demonstrates strong brand positioning and consumer preference, supporting sustained revenue growth.

Negative Factors

Increased Leverage

Higher leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth or weather economic downturns.

Margin Pressure

Margin pressure from cost increases and promotional activities can reduce profitability, affecting long-term financial health and investment capacity.

Decline in Traditional Loaf Segment

Declines in traditional loaf sales highlight challenges in adapting to changing consumer preferences, potentially impacting revenue from core product lines.

Flowers Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Flowers Foods, Inc. is a leading producer and marketer of fresh packaged bakery foods in the United States. The company operates through two primary segments: Direct Store Delivery (DSD) and Warehouse Delivery. Flowers Foods offers a diverse range of products including bread, buns, rolls, and snack cakes, under well-known brand names such as Nature's Own, Wonder, and Dave's Killer Bread. With a focus on quality and innovation, Flowers Foods serves retail and foodservice customers, leveraging a vast distribution network to deliver fresh products to consumers nationwide.

How the Company Makes Money

Flowers Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its bakery products across various distribution channels. The company employs a Direct Store Delivery model, which allows it to deliver products directly to grocery stores and other retailers, ensuring freshness and optimal inventory management. Additionally, Flowers Foods utilizes a Warehouse Delivery model to service larger retail chains and foodservice customers. Key revenue streams include sales from its branded products, private label offerings, and specialty baked goods. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with major retailers and foodservice operators, which facilitate broader market access and enhance brand visibility. Factors contributing to its earnings include brand loyalty, product innovation, and an efficient distribution system that minimizes waste and maximizes shelf life.

Flowers Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Flowers Foods shows strong revenue growth and efficient cash flow management, with a robust free cash flow growth rate of 20.3% TTM. However, increased leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.51 and slight pressure on net profit margins highlight areas for caution.

Income Statement

Flowers Foods shows a strong gross profit margin of around 49.6% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 4.5% from 4.9% in the previous year, reflecting some pressure on net earnings. Revenue growth is robust at 35.1% TTM, driven by increased sales, although this is a significant jump from the previous year's modest growth, suggesting potential volatility.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.51 TTM, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity is healthy at 16.2%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 32.8%, suggesting a balanced capital structure but with room for improvement in reducing debt levels.

Cash Flow

Flowers Foods demonstrates strong cash flow management, with a free cash flow growth rate of 20.3% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.78, reflecting solid cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.72 suggests efficient cash utilization relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.13B	5.10B	5.09B	4.81B	4.33B	4.39B
Gross Profit	2.47B	2.53B	2.46B	2.30B	2.16B	2.19B
EBITDA	489.44M	525.28M	345.43M	469.59M	438.87M	380.74M
Net Income	194.02M	248.12M	123.42M	228.39M	206.19M	152.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.35B	3.40B	3.43B	3.31B	3.25B	3.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.73M	5.00M	22.53M	165.13M	185.87M	307.48M
Total Debt	2.13B	1.36B	1.35B	1.19B	1.21B	1.32B
Total Liabilities	2.93B	1.99B	2.08B	1.87B	1.84B	1.95B
Stockholders Equity	1.42B	1.41B	1.35B	1.44B	1.41B	1.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	325.35M	280.58M	220.28M	191.82M	133.76M	356.54M
Operating Cash Flow	451.12M	412.66M	349.35M	360.89M	344.61M	454.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-955.12M	-172.67M	-403.81M	-151.09M	-191.44M	-73.99M
Financing Cash Flow	505.76M	-257.52M	-88.15M	-222.17M	-274.78M	-84.04M

Flowers Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.03
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.81, below the 50-day MA of 12.51, and below the 200-day MA of 15.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.80 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.78 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLO.

Flowers Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
POST	74 Outperform	$5.75B	18.35	9.23%	―	0.80%	10.43%
FLO	68 Neutral	$2.34B	12.10	13.73%	8.56%	0.26%	-19.45%
JJSF	67 Neutral	$1.64B	25.01	6.82%	3.51%	0.54%	-24.42%
SMPL	63 Neutral	$1.97B	19.83	5.86%	―	8.98%	-26.29%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
KLG	57 Neutral	―	―	―	―	-4.30%	-70.31%
STKL	54 Neutral	$638.71M	―	2.23%	―	11.31%	99.83%

Flowers Foods Corporate Events

Flowers Foods Appoints New Chief Financial Officer

On October 21, 2025, Flowers Foods announced the appointment of D. Anthony Scaglione as Chief Financial Officer, effective January 1, 2026. Scaglione, who has extensive experience in financial leadership roles, will succeed Steve Kinsey and is expected to drive the company’s financial strategy and growth. This leadership transition is anticipated to strengthen Flowers Foods’ position in the competitive bakery industry and enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLO) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Flowers Foods stock, see the FLO Stock Forecast page.

Flowers Foods Elects Sterling Spainhour to Board

On September 26, 2025, Flowers Foods, Inc. announced the election of Sterling A. Spainhour to its board of directors, effective October 1, 2025. Spainhour, who is the executive vice president and chief legal officer of Southern Company, will serve on the audit and finance committees. His extensive experience in mergers and acquisitions, legal matters, and corporate governance is expected to strengthen Flowers Foods’ board as the company continues to evolve and pursue strategic priorities aimed at increasing shareholder value. With his appointment, the board will expand to twelve members.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLO) stock is a Hold with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Flowers Foods stock, see the FLO Stock Forecast page.

Flowers Foods CFO Retirement Announced

On September 19, 2025, Flowers Foods announced the planned retirement of their Chief Financial Officer, R. Steve Kinsey, effective December 31, 2025, after 36 years of service, including 18 years as CFO. The company has begun searching for his successor and Kinsey will continue in an advisory role post-retirement to ensure a smooth transition. His departure marks a significant change in the company’s leadership, with implications for its strategic direction and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLO) stock is a Hold with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Flowers Foods stock, see the FLO Stock Forecast page.

Flowers Foods Earnings Call: Mixed Sentiment Amid Transition

The recent earnings call for Flowers Foods revealed a mixed sentiment, reflecting both optimism and caution. The company showcased strong growth in its premium and innovative segments, particularly with brands like Dave’s Killer Bread (DKB) and Simple Mills. However, this positive momentum was somewhat overshadowed by challenges in traditional bread sales and increased market competition. Flowers Foods is currently in a transition phase, with strategic plans in place to address these issues, though significant patience will be required for these initiatives to bear fruit.

Flowers Foods Announces Board Member Retirement

On August 22, 2025, Melvin T. Stith, Ph.D. announced his retirement from the board of directors of Flowers Foods, effective December 31, 2025. Dr. Stith, who has been a director since 2004 and served on key committees, is retiring without any disagreements with the board or the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLO) stock is a Hold with a $16.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Flowers Foods stock, see the FLO Stock Forecast page.

Flowers Foods Reports Modest Sales Growth Amid Challenges

Flowers Foods, Inc., headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia, is a leading producer of packaged bakery foods in the United States, known for its popular brands like Nature’s Own and Dave’s Killer Bread. The company operates in the consumer goods sector, focusing on bakery products.