Flowers Foods (FLO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.28B
• Dividend Yield: 9.09%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.48M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.06
• Revenue Growth: 0.26%
• EPS Growth: -19.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,200
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 211,178,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,849,397
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,475,571
• PEG Ratio: 0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.84
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.36
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.95
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.01
• 1Y Price Target: $11.67
• Price Target Upside: 7.96% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.04
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $5.27B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(6.38% Upside)

Flowers Foods' overall stock score reflects a stable financial position with challenges in profitability and leverage. The stock's valuation is attractive due to a low P/E ratio and high dividend yield. Strategic efforts to realign the portfolio are promising, but margin pressures and declining traditional loaf sales pose risks. Positive corporate events, including leadership changes, are expected to support future growth.

Positive Factors

Strategic Alignment

By aligning its portfolio with consumer demand, Flowers Foods is positioning itself to capture market share in growth areas, enhancing its long-term competitive position.

Leadership Changes

The new CFO is expected to drive financial strategy and growth, potentially improving financial health and strategic execution over the long term.

Brand Growth

Growth in key brands like Canyon and Dave's Killer Bread indicates strong brand positioning and consumer preference, supporting sustainable revenue growth.

Negative Factors

Margin Pressure

Declining margins due to cost pressures and promotional activities could impact profitability, challenging Flowers Foods' ability to maintain financial health.

Decline in Traditional Loaf Segment

The decline in traditional loaf sales impacts Flowers Foods' core product line, necessitating strategic adjustments to offset potential revenue losses.

Increased Leverage

Higher leverage increases financial risk and can limit strategic flexibility, potentially affecting long-term operational stability.

Flowers Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery products in the United States. It offers fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas, as well as frozen breads and rolls under the Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley's, and Tastykake brand names. The company distributes its products through a direct-store-delivery distribution and a warehouse delivery system, as well as operates 46 bakeries comprising 44 owned and two leased. Its customers include mass merchandisers, supermarkets and other retailers, convenience stores, national and regional restaurants, quick-serve chains, retail in-store bakeries, foodservice distributors, food wholesalers, institutions, dollar stores, and vending companies. The company was formerly known as Flowers Industries and changed its name to Flowers Foods, Inc. in 2001. Flowers Foods, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Flowers Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its bakery products across various distribution channels. The company employs a Direct Store Delivery model, which allows it to deliver products directly to grocery stores and other retailers, ensuring freshness and optimal inventory management. Additionally, Flowers Foods utilizes a Warehouse Delivery model to service larger retail chains and foodservice customers. Key revenue streams include sales from its branded products, private label offerings, and specialty baked goods. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with major retailers and foodservice operators, which facilitate broader market access and enhance brand visibility. Factors contributing to its earnings include brand loyalty, product innovation, and an efficient distribution system that minimizes waste and maximizes shelf life.

Flowers Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Flowers Foods demonstrates stable revenue growth but faces profitability challenges with declining margins. Increased leverage poses a risk, though the asset structure remains balanced. Cash flow generation shows some weaknesses, with declining free cash flow growth. Overall, the company maintains a stable financial position but should address profitability and leverage concerns to enhance financial health.

Income Statement

Flowers Foods shows a stable revenue base with a TTM revenue growth rate of 0.71%, indicating modest growth. The gross profit margin of 37.50% in TTM is lower than the previous annual figure of 49.50%, suggesting increased cost pressures. The net profit margin has decreased to 3.78% from 4.86%, reflecting reduced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, indicating potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.68 in TTM, indicating higher leverage and potential risk. Return on equity has decreased to 13.68% from 17.60%, showing reduced efficiency in generating returns on equity. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has decreased by 15.16% in TTM, indicating potential liquidity challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.41 suggests moderate cash generation efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 indicates a reasonable conversion of earnings into free cash flow, though it has decreased from previous levels.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.13B	5.10B	5.09B	4.81B	4.33B	4.39B
Gross Profit	2.51B	2.53B	2.46B	2.30B	2.16B	2.19B
EBITDA	489.44M	525.28M	345.43M	469.59M	438.87M	380.74M
Net Income	194.02M	248.12M	123.42M	228.39M	206.19M	152.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.35B	3.40B	3.43B	3.31B	3.25B	3.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	16.73M	5.00M	22.53M	165.13M	185.87M	307.48M
Total Debt	2.13B	1.36B	1.35B	1.19B	1.21B	1.32B
Total Liabilities	2.93B	1.99B	2.08B	1.87B	1.84B	1.95B
Stockholders Equity	1.42B	1.41B	1.35B	1.44B	1.41B	1.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	325.35M	280.58M	220.28M	191.82M	133.76M	356.54M
Operating Cash Flow	451.12M	412.66M	349.35M	360.89M	344.61M	454.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-955.12M	-172.67M	-403.81M	-151.09M	-191.44M	-73.99M
Financing Cash Flow	505.76M	-257.52M	-88.15M	-222.17M	-274.78M	-84.04M

Flowers Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 10.81
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.69, below the 50-day MA of 11.54, and below the 200-day MA of 14.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for FLO.

Flowers Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JJSF	69 Neutral	$1.74B	26.83	6.82%	3.38%	0.54%	-24.42%
FLO	69 Neutral	$2.28B	11.82	13.73%	9.09%	0.26%	-19.45%
POST	64 Neutral	$5.04B	17.79	8.56%	―	2.97%	-2.68%
SMPL	63 Neutral	$1.86B	18.31	5.86%	―	8.98%	-26.29%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
KLG	57 Neutral	―	―	―	―	-4.30%	-70.31%
STKL	51 Neutral	$638.71M	―	2.23%	―	11.31%	99.83%

Flowers Foods Corporate Events

Flowers Foods Updates Executive Change of Control Plan

On November 13, 2025, Flowers Foods, Inc. announced amendments to its Change of Control Plan, affecting its executive officers. The changes include adding a prorated bonus for the year of termination, revising medical cost payments, aligning definitions with the company’s 2014 compensation plan, and moving restrictive covenants to a separation agreement.

Flowers Foods Appoints New Chief Financial Officer

On October 21, 2025, Flowers Foods announced the appointment of D. Anthony Scaglione as Chief Financial Officer, effective January 1, 2026. Scaglione, who has extensive experience in financial leadership roles, will succeed Steve Kinsey and is expected to drive the company’s financial strategy and growth. This leadership transition is anticipated to strengthen Flowers Foods’ position in the competitive bakery industry and enhance shareholder value.

Flowers Foods Elects Sterling Spainhour to Board

On September 26, 2025, Flowers Foods, Inc. announced the election of Sterling A. Spainhour to its board of directors, effective October 1, 2025. Spainhour, who is the executive vice president and chief legal officer of Southern Company, will serve on the audit and finance committees. His extensive experience in mergers and acquisitions, legal matters, and corporate governance is expected to strengthen Flowers Foods’ board as the company continues to evolve and pursue strategic priorities aimed at increasing shareholder value. With his appointment, the board will expand to twelve members.

Flowers Foods CFO Retirement Announced

On September 19, 2025, Flowers Foods announced the planned retirement of their Chief Financial Officer, R. Steve Kinsey, effective December 31, 2025, after 36 years of service, including 18 years as CFO. The company has begun searching for his successor and Kinsey will continue in an advisory role post-retirement to ensure a smooth transition. His departure marks a significant change in the company’s leadership, with implications for its strategic direction and stakeholder relations.