Flowers Foods (FLO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.85B
• Dividend Yield: 7.23%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.39M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.0
• Beta (1Y): -0.01
• Revenue Growth: -0.61%
• EPS Growth: 70.09%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,200
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.30
• Shares Outstanding: 211,178,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,476,161
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,394,797
• PEG Ratio: 0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.06
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.85
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.40
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.90
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.15
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.61
• 1Y Price Target: $15.33
• Price Target Upside: 11.98% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $16.50 ▲(20.53% Upside)

Flowers Foods' overall score reflects strong financial performance and attractive valuation, offset by bearish technical indicators and challenges highlighted in the earnings call. The company's strategic focus on premium segments is promising, but increased leverage and competitive pressures pose risks.

Positive Factors

Cash Flow Management

Strong cash flow management indicates the company's ability to generate cash efficiently, supporting reinvestment and debt reduction, enhancing long-term stability.

Premium Segment Growth

Growth in premium segments like DKB reflects successful alignment with consumer trends, potentially leading to higher margins and market share expansion.

Strategic Acquisitions

Strategic acquisitions like Simple Mills enhance product offerings and market reach, supporting long-term revenue growth and competitive positioning.

Negative Factors

Increased Leverage

Higher leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Competitive Pressures

Increased competition, especially in traditional segments, can erode market share and pressure margins, challenging long-term profitability.

Pressure on Profitability

Reduced EPS guidance and profitability pressures may limit financial flexibility and affect future dividend sustainability, impacting investor confidence.

Flowers Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery products in the United States. It offers fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas, as well as frozen breads and rolls under the Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley's, and Tastykake brand names. The company distributes its products through a direct-store-delivery distribution and a warehouse delivery system, as well as operates 46 bakeries comprising 44 owned and two leased. Its customers include mass merchandisers, supermarkets and other retailers, convenience stores, national and regional restaurants, quick-serve chains, retail in-store bakeries, foodservice distributors, food wholesalers, institutions, dollar stores, and vending companies. The company was formerly known as Flowers Industries and changed its name to Flowers Foods, Inc. in 2001. Flowers Foods, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Flowers Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its bakery products to grocery stores, mass merchandisers, convenience stores, and foodservice operators. The company has a diversified revenue model that includes both direct sales and distribution agreements. Key revenue streams include the sale of branded products, private label offerings, and specialty items. Additionally, Flowers Foods forms partnerships with distributors and retailers to expand its market reach and enhance product visibility. The company's strategic acquisitions of other bakery brands also contribute to its earnings by broadening its product portfolio and increasing market share.

Flowers Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Flowers Foods shows strong revenue growth and efficient cash flow management, with a robust free cash flow growth rate of 20.3% TTM. However, increased leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.51 and slight pressure on net profit margins highlight areas for caution.

Income Statement

Flowers Foods shows a strong gross profit margin of around 49.6% in TTM, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has slightly decreased to 4.5% from 4.9% in the previous year, reflecting some pressure on net earnings. Revenue growth is robust at 35.1% TTM, driven by increased sales, although this is a significant jump from the previous year's modest growth, suggesting potential volatility.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.51 TTM, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity is healthy at 16.2%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 32.8%, suggesting a balanced capital structure but with room for improvement in reducing debt levels.

Cash Flow

Flowers Foods demonstrates strong cash flow management, with a free cash flow growth rate of 20.3% TTM, indicating improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.78, reflecting solid cash conversion. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.72 suggests efficient cash utilization relative to earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.10B	5.10B	5.09B	4.81B	4.33B	4.39B
Gross Profit	2.52B	2.53B	2.46B	2.30B	2.16B	2.19B
EBITDA	510.91M	525.65M	345.80M	469.96M	438.99M	380.74M
Net Income	219.47M	248.12M	123.42M	228.39M	206.19M	152.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.34B	3.40B	3.43B	3.31B	3.25B	3.32B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	11.04M	5.00M	22.53M	165.13M	185.87M	307.48M
Total Debt	2.09B	1.36B	1.35B	1.19B	1.21B	1.32B
Total Liabilities	2.92B	1.99B	2.08B	1.87B	1.84B	1.95B
Stockholders Equity	1.43B	1.41B	1.35B	1.44B	1.41B	1.37B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	383.50M	280.58M	220.28M	191.82M	133.76M	356.54M
Operating Cash Flow	510.71M	412.66M	349.35M	360.89M	344.61M	454.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-967.55M	-172.67M	-403.81M	-151.09M	-191.44M	-73.99M
Financing Cash Flow	461.02M	-257.52M	-88.15M	-222.17M	-274.78M	-84.04M

Flowers Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 13.69
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 13.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.65, below the 50-day MA of 15.28, and below the 200-day MA of 17.30, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.09 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLO.

Flowers Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
POST	75 Outperform	5.56B	17.52	9.16%	―	0.80%	10.43%
SMPL	71 Outperform	2.63B	18.28	7.89%	―	14.22%	-1.81%
JJSF	68 Neutral	2.00B	23.92	8.65%	3.06%	0.50%	-4.46%
FLO	63 Neutral	$2.85B	13.03	15.61%	7.23%	-0.61%	70.09%
STKL	60 Neutral	757.57M	-107.19	-11.71%	―	10.90%	96.02%
KLG	57 Neutral	1.99B	57.22	9.86%	2.85%	-4.30%	-70.31%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%

Flowers Foods Corporate Events

Flowers Foods Announces Board Member Retirement

On August 22, 2025, Melvin T. Stith, Ph.D. announced his retirement from the board of directors of Flowers Foods, effective December 31, 2025. Dr. Stith, who has been a director since 2004 and served on key committees, is retiring without any disagreements with the board or the company.