Flowers Foods (FLO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.12B
• Dividend Yield: 9.15%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.50M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.10
• Revenue Growth: 0.26%
• EPS Growth: -19.45%
• Country: US
• Employees: 10,200
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.22
• Shares Outstanding: 211,178,220
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,291,665
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,500,770
• PEG Ratio: -0.42
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.44
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.84
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.75
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.96
• 1Y Price Target: $10.67
• Price Target Upside: 6.38% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(14.66% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened profitability and higher leverage, reinforced by flat 2026 guidance and near-term balance-sheet/dividend uncertainty discussed on the earnings call. These risks are partly offset by solid cash generation, neutral technicals, and a moderate P/E with a high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Healthy absolute operating cash flow and FCF provide durable internal funding for working capital, maintenance CapEx and strategic initiatives. This cash generation supports refinancing options and gives management runway to execute portfolio, network and margin improvement programs over the next 2–6 months.

Distribution & brand portfolio

A large DSD footprint and well-known brands (Nature’s Own, Wonder, DKB) create structural competitive advantages in freshness, shelf placement and retailer relationships. This entrenched distribution plus premium/snack growth supports steady revenue channels and selective share gains over time.

Strategic/operational initiatives

A formal multiyear strategic review, ERP rollout and renewed DSD execution focus signal management is addressing structural inefficiencies. These initiatives (plus new DSD ops accountability) can sustainably improve margins and network efficiency if implemented over the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage & refinancing risk

Materially higher leverage and a large October maturity constrain financial flexibility. Proximity to leverage covenants and likely refinancing at higher rates reduce headroom for investment or dividends and increase bankruptcy/credit stress risk if profitability does not recover.

Margin deterioration

Sharp margin compression and a collapsing net margin materially reduce earnings resilience. Lower gross and net margins shrink operating leverage, reduce ROE, and leave the business more vulnerable to category declines or input-cost shifts absent durable pricing or mix improvements.

Integration & input-cost volatility (Simple Mills)

Acquired/adjacent platforms showing volatile sales and compressed margins highlight execution and input-cost risks. Distributor inventory disruptions, ingredient cost pressure and tariff exposure can make earnings from growth initiatives uneven and complicate margin recovery timelines.

Flowers Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Flowers Foods, Inc. produces and markets packaged bakery products in the United States. It offers fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas, as well as frozen breads and rolls under the Nature's Own, Dave's Killer Bread, Wonder, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley's, and Tastykake brand names. The company distributes its products through a direct-store-delivery distribution and a warehouse delivery system, as well as operates 46 bakeries comprising 44 owned and two leased. Its customers include mass merchandisers, supermarkets and other retailers, convenience stores, national and regional restaurants, quick-serve chains, retail in-store bakeries, foodservice distributors, food wholesalers, institutions, dollar stores, and vending companies. The company was formerly known as Flowers Industries and changed its name to Flowers Foods, Inc. in 2001. Flowers Foods, Inc. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

Flowers Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its bakery products across various distribution channels. The company employs a Direct Store Delivery model, which allows it to deliver products directly to grocery stores and other retailers, ensuring freshness and optimal inventory management. Additionally, Flowers Foods utilizes a Warehouse Delivery model to service larger retail chains and foodservice customers. Key revenue streams include sales from its branded products, private label offerings, and specialty baked goods. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with major retailers and foodservice operators, which facilitate broader market access and enhance brand visibility. Factors contributing to its earnings include brand loyalty, product innovation, and an efficient distribution system that minimizes waste and maximizes shelf life.

Flowers Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steady revenue growth and generally healthy free cash flow are positives, but 2026 profitability deteriorated sharply (net margin ~1.6% vs ~4.9% in 2024) and leverage increased materially (debt-to-equity ~1.79x), reducing financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily over the period (from $4.39B in 2020 to $5.26B in 2026), but the growth pace has been modest recently (2026 revenue growth ~2.4% after near-flat growth in 2024). Profitability is the main concern: net margin fell sharply to ~1.6% in 2026 versus ~4.9% in 2024, and gross margin also compressed (to ~45.7% in 2026 from ~49.5% in 2024), signaling cost/price pressure. Operating profitability remains positive (EBIT margin ~6.6% in 2026), but the earnings volatility (notably the 2026 net income drop) keeps the score in the middle of the range.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased materially in 2026, with total debt rising to ~$2.33B and debt-to-equity moving to ~1.79x (vs. ~0.96x in 2024 and ~0.83x in 2022), reducing financial flexibility. Equity remains meaningful (~$1.30B in 2026) and total assets increased (~$4.18B in 2026), but returns weakened alongside earnings: return on equity fell to ~6.4% in 2026 from ~17.6% in 2024. Overall, the balance sheet looks more leveraged and less efficient than prior years, increasing risk if profitability stays pressured.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow was ~$446M and free cash flow was ~$319M in 2026, both healthy in absolute terms. However, free cash flow growth was slightly negative in 2026 and cash flow has been choppy over time. Cash flow quality versus accounting earnings is mixed—free cash flow was ~71.5% of net income in 2026 (solid), but operating cash flow covered less than half of net income in 2026 (coverage ~0.46), which is weaker than 2024 (~0.75) and suggests working-capital or timing headwinds.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.26B	5.10B	5.09B	4.81B	4.33B
Gross Profit	2.40B	2.53B	2.46B	2.30B	2.16B
EBITDA	512.33M	525.28M	345.43M	469.59M	438.87M
Net Income	83.83M	248.12M	123.42M	228.39M	206.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.18B	3.40B	3.43B	3.31B	3.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	12.10M	5.00M	22.53M	165.13M	185.87M
Total Debt	2.33B	1.36B	1.35B	1.19B	1.21B
Total Liabilities	2.88B	1.99B	2.08B	1.87B	1.84B
Stockholders Equity	1.30B	1.41B	1.35B	1.44B	1.41B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	319.09M	280.58M	220.28M	191.82M	133.76M
Operating Cash Flow	446.20M	412.66M	349.35M	360.89M	344.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-943.15M	-172.67M	-403.81M	-151.09M	-191.44M
Financing Cash Flow	504.05M	-257.52M	-88.15M	-222.17M	-274.78M

Flowers Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.03
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FLO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.03 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.98, below the 50-day MA of 10.90, and below the 200-day MA of 13.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for FLO.

Flowers Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JJSF	64 Neutral	$1.65B	27.07	6.60%	3.53%	0.54%	-24.42%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
SMPL	62 Neutral	$1.60B	19.29	5.17%	―	8.98%	-26.29%
POST	62 Neutral	$5.08B	19.55	8.69%	―	2.97%	-2.68%
STKL	58 Neutral	$777.66M	-1,262.75	2.23%	―	11.31%	99.83%
FLO	54 Neutral	$2.12B	25.63	6.18%	9.15%	0.26%	-19.45%

Flowers Foods Corporate Events

Flowers Foods CFO Retires, Moves to Consulting Role

Flowers Foods announced that its chief financial officer, R. Steve Kinsey, who had previously notified the company on September 19, 2025, of his intention to retire, stepped down from his position effective December 31, 2025. On the same date, the company entered into a consulting agreement under which Kinsey will continue to support Flowers Foods and its subsidiaries as a consultant from January 1, 2026, through at least February 28, 2026, at a rate of $50,000 per month, with either party able to terminate the arrangement on 30 days’ written notice and Kinsey remaining bound by confidentiality obligations, providing continuity in financial leadership during the transition period.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLO) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Flowers Foods stock, see the FLO Stock Forecast page.

Flowers Foods Updates Executive Change of Control Plan

On November 13, 2025, Flowers Foods, Inc. announced amendments to its Change of Control Plan, affecting its executive officers. The changes include adding a prorated bonus for the year of termination, revising medical cost payments, aligning definitions with the company’s 2014 compensation plan, and moving restrictive covenants to a separation agreement.

The most recent analyst rating on (FLO) stock is a Hold with a $10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Flowers Foods stock, see the FLO Stock Forecast page.