The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.33B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 835.13K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: 11.47%
• EPS Growth: 2.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 316
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 101,017,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,110,630
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 835,129
• PEG Ratio: 0.64
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.54
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 35.08
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.74
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.46
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.61
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.52
• 1Y Price Target: $39.60
• Price Target Upside: 20.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(18.29%Upside)

Simply Good Foods' strong financial performance and promising earnings call guidance are key drivers of the score. While technical analysis suggests caution with bearish trends, the company's robust operational growth and strategic initiatives provide a solid foundation. Valuation remains reasonable, supporting a positive overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Earnings

Earnings quality was solid, with organic sales growth and gross margin above and the operating expense ratio better than forecast.

Financial Performance

The balance sheet remains stellar with the leverage ratio expected to reach 0.5 by fiscal year-end.

Strategic Momentum

Management noted potential for upside based on momentum for Quest and OWYN and the realization of productivity benefits and cost synergies.

Negative Factors

Brand Pressure

The company's strategy suggests the Atkins brand will likely remain pressured in FY26.

Input Cost Inflation

Gross margin headwinds from input cost inflation and tariffs will extend into the first half of FY26.

Tariffs

There is incremental uncertainty related to tariffs, including the potential impact on consumer demand.

The Simply Good Foods Company Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) is a leading consumer packaged food company specializing in nutritious, convenient, and delicious products. The company focuses on health and wellness sectors, offering a portfolio of brands primarily in the nutrition bar, ready-to-drink shake, and confectionery categories. Its core brands include Atkins and Quest, known for their low-carb, high-protein offerings that cater to health-conscious consumers looking to manage their weight and maintain a healthy lifestyle.

How the Company Makes Money

Simply Good Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its products across various channels, including retail outlets, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales. The company's key revenue streams are its Atkins and Quest brands, which are popular for their low-carbohydrate, high-protein bars, snacks, and shakes. Revenue is bolstered by strategic partnerships with major retailers and distribution agreements that ensure widespread availability of its products. Additionally, Simply Good Foods benefits from a growing consumer trend towards healthier eating, which drives demand for its offerings. The company also invests in marketing and innovation to expand its product line and enhance brand recognition, further contributing to its earnings.

The Simply Good Foods Company Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Simply Good Foods demonstrates strong financial health across all statements. The income statement shows robust growth and profitability, the balance sheet reflects a solid equity base and improving leverage, and cash flow confirms strong cash generation and financial flexibility. While debt levels require monitoring, overall trajectory remains positive.

Income Statement

Simply Good Foods has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a consistent upward trajectory over the past five years. The gross profit margin remains healthy, and the net profit margin shows substantial improvement, indicating increased efficiency and profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect a robust operating performance, contributing to the company's stability.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid equity position with a favorable equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio has been improving, reflecting a decrease in leverage, which lowers financial risk. Return on equity is strong, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits. However, the total debt level, while manageable, requires ongoing monitoring to ensure financial health.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has shown consistent growth, aligning well with net income, indicating quality earnings. The free cash flow growth rate is positive, supporting future business expansions and debt repayments. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, demonstrating the company's ability to convert earnings into cash effectively.

Breakdown
TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.41B	1.33B	1.24B	1.17B	1.01B	816.64M
	Gross Profit
531.85M	511.57M	453.42M	445.56M	409.77M	324.33M
	EBIT
218.64M	206.50M	204.95M	202.76M	173.68M	78.22M
	EBITDA
248.01M	240.06M	232.74M	198.37M	135.64M	131.63M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
145.49M	139.31M	133.57M	108.57M	40.88M	65.64M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
103.68M	132.53M	87.72M	67.49M	75.34M	95.85M
	Total Assets
2.43B	2.44B	2.10B	2.09B	2.05B	2.01B
	Total Debt
298.54M	402.98M	289.36M	409.54M	455.34M	601.48M
	Net Debt
194.85M	270.45M	201.64M	342.04M	380.00M	505.63M
	Total Liabilities
609.42M	708.66M	525.99M	655.59M	863.41M	869.11M
	Stockholders Equity
1.82B	1.73B	1.57B	1.44B	1.19B	1.14B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
178.43M	209.23M	158.93M	104.88M	125.38M	56.25M
	Operating Cash Flow
184.98M	215.70M	171.12M	110.64M	132.09M	58.92M
	Investing Cash Flow
-285.60M	-286.88M	-12.19M	-8.16M	-2.51M	-983.99M
	Financing Cash Flow
68.17M	115.90M	-138.53M	-110.03M	-150.05M	754.65M

The Simply Good Foods Company Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 32.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 34.12, below the 50-day MA of 35.24, and below the 200-day MA of 35.75, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.69 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.56 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMPL.

The Simply Good Foods Company Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BRFS	80 Outperform	$6.23B	8.78	23.47%	2.38%	3.82%	―
SMPL	76 Outperform	$3.33B	23.00	8.40%	―	11.47%	2.59%
FLO	65 Neutral	$3.38B	14.90	16.34%	6.20%	-1.02%	81.53%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$8.81B	15.01	4.71%	3.72%	3.60%	-2.89%
UTZ	62 Neutral	$1.85B	41.05	3.93%	2.20%	-1.29%	―
FRPT	61 Neutral	$3.53B	241.02	1.54%	―	23.24%	60.35%
JJSF	58 Neutral	$2.22B	29.28	8.20%	2.71%	0.49%	-12.32%

The Simply Good Foods Company Corporate Events

Simply Good Foods Appoints New CFO Christopher Bealer

On May 23, 2025, Simply Good Foods Company announced the appointment of Christopher J. Bealer as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective July 3, 2025. Bealer, who joined the company in April 2025 as Senior Vice President, Finance, brings nearly 23 years of experience in consumer-packaged goods and consumer durables, including leadership roles at Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC and Whirlpool Corporation. Additionally, on the same date, the company’s Board of Directors amended the Executive Severance Plan to adjust cash severance rates for top executives in the event of a qualifying termination related to a change in control, aiming to enhance recruitment and retention of key executives.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMPL) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simply Good Foods stock, see the SMPL Stock Forecast page.