Simply Good Foods (SMPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.97B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.66M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: 8.98%
• EPS Growth: -26.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 316
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 100,541,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,166,579
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,664,087
• PEG Ratio: -1.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.99
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.57
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.72
• 1Y Price Target: $26.29
• Price Target Upside: 33.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.50 ▲(9.19% Upside)

Simply Good Foods' overall stock score reflects a solid financial foundation but is tempered by technical weaknesses and mixed earnings call sentiment. The company's strategic focus on brand growth and operational improvements is promising, but challenges with the Atkins brand and margin pressures need to be addressed to improve the outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong Brand Performance

The Quest brand's strong growth indicates robust consumer demand and effective brand positioning, contributing to long-term revenue stability.

Debt Management

Effective debt management enhances financial flexibility and reduces interest expenses, supporting sustainable growth and investment capacity.

Capacity Expansion

Increasing production capacity for high-demand products positions the company to capture market growth and improve operational efficiency.

Negative Factors

Atkins Brand Decline

The decline in the Atkins brand reflects challenges in maintaining market share and could impact overall revenue if not addressed.

Margin Pressures

Sustained margin pressures from input costs and tariffs could hinder profitability and limit the company's ability to invest in growth.

OWYN Product Issues

Product quality issues can damage brand reputation and consumer trust, potentially affecting sales and long-term brand loyalty.

Simply Good Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Simply Good Foods is a leading nutrition company that specializes in the development, marketing, and distribution of nutritional snack products and meal replacement bars. Operating primarily in the health and wellness sector, the company focuses on delivering high-protein, low-carb, and convenient food options to meet the needs of health-conscious consumers. Its core products include popular brands such as Quest and Atkins, which cater to various dietary preferences including keto and low-sugar diets.

How the Company Makes Money

Simply Good Foods generates revenue through the sale of its branded nutritional products across multiple channels, including retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales. The company benefits from a diverse revenue model that includes product sales, which are driven by strong consumer demand for health-focused snacks and meals. Additionally, Simply Good Foods has established significant partnerships with major retailers, allowing its products to reach a broader audience. The company also invests in marketing and promotional strategies to enhance brand visibility and drive sales, contributing to its overall earnings.

Simply Good Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Simply Good Foods shows a strong equity position and manageable debt levels. However, recent declines in profit margins and free cash flow growth suggest potential challenges. The company should focus on improving operational efficiencies and maintaining cash flow stability.

Income Statement

Simply Good Foods has shown a consistent revenue growth trajectory over the years, although the most recent year experienced a slight decline. The gross profit margin remains stable, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased, suggesting potential challenges in controlling operational costs or increased competition. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also seen a decline, which could impact profitability if not addressed.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio, indicating improved financial stability. Return on equity has slightly decreased, which could be a concern if it continues. The equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet shows resilience and a capacity to manage financial obligations effectively.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong relative to net income, indicating good cash generation capabilities. However, the free cash flow has seen a decline, which could affect future investment capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, but the recent negative growth in free cash flow is a point of concern that needs monitoring.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.45B	1.45B	1.33B	1.24B	1.17B	1.01B
Gross Profit	508.85M	508.85M	494.65M	436.00M	428.28M	392.78M
EBITDA	184.25M	182.91M	240.06M	232.74M	198.37M	135.64M
Net Income	103.61M	103.61M	139.31M	133.57M	108.57M	40.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.40B	2.40B	2.48B	2.13B	2.12B	2.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	98.47M	98.47M	132.53M	87.72M	67.49M	75.34M
Total Debt	249.07M	249.07M	437.31M	327.70M	454.17M	500.23M
Total Liabilities	589.21M	589.21M	756.58M	553.92M	684.09M	891.48M
Stockholders Equity	1.81B	1.81B	1.73B	1.57B	1.44B	1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	157.91M	157.91M	208.03M	156.24M	104.34M	125.38M
Operating Cash Flow	178.46M	178.46M	214.50M	168.42M	110.09M	132.09M
Investing Cash Flow	-20.93M	-20.93M	-286.88M	-12.19M	-8.16M	-2.51M
Financing Cash Flow	-191.21M	-191.21M	117.10M	-135.84M	-109.49M	-150.05M

Simply Good Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 19.69
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.36, below the 50-day MA of 25.73, and below the 200-day MA of 32.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.77 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMPL.

Simply Good Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CENT	―	$1.80B	14.21	8.70%	―	-4.90%	0.29%
JJSF	―	$1.71B	21.08	8.79%	3.57%	0.50%	-4.46%
SMPL	―	$1.97B	19.34	5.86%	―	8.98%	-26.29%
Sector *	―	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
STKL	―	$655.62M	―	-1.34%	―	10.90%	96.02%
KLG	―	―	―	―	―	-4.30%	-70.31%
BRBR	―	$3.98B	18.06	―	―	16.27%	5.13%

Simply Good Foods Corporate Events

Simply Good Foods Reports Mixed 2025 Results, Eyes Growth

The Simply Good Foods Company, a prominent player in the Nutritional Snacking sector, offers a range of high-protein, low-sugar, and low-carb snacks and beverages under brands like Quest, Atkins, and OWYN. The company recently released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, highlighting a challenging period marked by a net loss in the fourth quarter and a decrease in net sales compared to the previous year. Despite these challenges, the company reported a 9% increase in net sales for the fiscal year, driven by the acquisition of OWYN and organic growth in its existing brands. Key financial metrics for the fourth quarter showed a decline, with net sales at $369 million and a net loss of $12.4 million, attributed to factors like elevated input costs and a non-cash impairment charge related to the Atkins brand. Looking forward, Simply Good Foods anticipates a mixed fiscal year 2026, with net sales expected to fluctuate between a 2% decrease and a 2% increase, and gross margins projected to decline. The company remains focused on long-term growth through innovation, increased marketing for Quest and OWYN, and strategic investments, despite facing headwinds from reduced distribution for Atkins and inflationary pressures.

Simply Good Foods Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

The Simply Good Foods Company’s recent earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, reflecting both strong growth and notable challenges. While the Quest and OWYN brands showed impressive performance and the company made strides in debt repayment and stock repurchase, these positives were tempered by the decline of the Atkins brand, product quality issues with OWYN, and pressures from cocoa costs and tariffs impacting margins.