Simply Good Foods (SMPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.98B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: 8.98%
• EPS Growth: -26.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 316
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 92,575,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,017,017
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,647,012
• PEG Ratio: -1.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.99
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.36
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.74
• 1Y Price Target: $27.25
• Price Target Upside: 31.90% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.95
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.46B

• Rating: 65 Neutral
• Price Target: $22.00 ▲(6.49% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial footing (notably balance sheet strength and operating cash generation) but tempered by deteriorating margins and weaker free cash flow trends. The earnings call reinforces near-term pressure (Q2 weakness and gross margin compression) despite a planned second-half rebound and strong buybacks. Technically, the stock shows only a short-term recovery within a broader downtrend, and valuation (P/E 23.01 with no dividend yield provided) is not a clear tailwind.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet & Liquidity

Strong liquidity and low net leverage give the company durable financial flexibility to fund marketing, innovation, and operations while absorbing commodity or tariff shocks. This balance sheet position supports capital allocation choices like M&A or continued buybacks without immediate refinancing stress.

Brand Strength — Quest

A rapidly growing, high‑penetration brand provides a durable growth engine. Quest's rising household penetration and particularly strong salty snacks adoption indicate sticky consumer demand and retail momentum, supporting sustainable revenue and easier reallocation of shelf space versus lower‑growth SKUs.

Productivity & Cost Programs

An ongoing multi‑quarter productivity program that is already lowering G&A and driving cost synergies creates durable operating leverage. If sustained, these structural efficiency gains can help offset inflation, restore margins over time, and improve the company’s ability to convert EBITDA into cash.

Negative Factors

Gross Margin Compression

Material margin deterioration reflects lasting exposure to tariffs, commodity cost shifts, and promotional/realignment pressures. Persistent margin loss reduces free cash flow and investment capacity, and requires sustained pricing, productivity or mix improvements to reverse — a multi‑quarter execution challenge.

Free Cash Flow & Profitability Trend

A recent decline in free cash flow, despite strong operating cash generation, signals pressure on the company’s ability to fund capex, marketing, or buybacks without drawing on liquidity. If margins or working capital trends don’t normalize, FCF weakness could constrain strategic initiatives over multiple quarters.

Atkins Consumption & Distribution Losses

A steep, sustained decline in a legacy brand due to lost retail distribution reduces portfolio diversification and puts more performance reliance on fewer brands. Distribution erosion can be slow to reverse, pressuring overall net sales and requiring costly trade investment or assortment changes to reclaim shelf presence.

Simply Good Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacements. It offers protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, pizza, protein chips, recipes, and confectionery products, as well as licensed frozen meals under the Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest brand names. The company distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug channels, club stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including atkins.com, questnutrition.com, and amazon.com. The Simply Good Foods Company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Simply Good Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded products across various distribution channels, including grocery stores, club stores, convenience stores, and online platforms. Key revenue streams include direct sales from retail partners, e-commerce sales through their own website and third-party platforms, and partnerships with health and fitness retailers. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with distributors and retailers, which enhance its market reach. Additionally, Simply Good Foods invests in marketing and promotional activities to drive brand awareness and customer engagement, contributing to its overall sales growth.

Simply Good Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$197M and free cash flow ~$174M with ~1.9x OCF-to-net-income) and a generally manageable leverage profile support financial flexibility. Offsetting this, TTM revenue is down (-7.4%) and margins/returns have compressed versus 2023–2024, indicating weaker near-term operating momentum.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been solid over the last several annual periods, but TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a revenue decline (-7.4%), signaling a near-term slowdown. Profitability has also stepped down from the stronger 2023–2024 levels: gross margin and operating margin are lower in TTM, and net margin has compressed to ~6.3% versus ~10% in 2023–2024. The business remains profitable with positive operating profit, but the trajectory is weaker recently.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable with debt modest relative to equity across the annual periods (debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.17–0.38 range), and equity has grown over time, supporting balance sheet resilience. Returns on equity are positive but have cooled in TTM (~5.0%) versus mid-to-high single digits previously, consistent with the recent earnings slowdown. One data point shows debt-to-equity as 0.0 in TTM, which looks inconsistent with the presence of debt and should be treated cautiously.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow remains strong in TTM (~$197M) and supports healthy free cash flow (~$174M). Cash flow conversion is solid with operating cash flow comfortably exceeding net income (about 1.9x in TTM), indicating good earnings quality. Free cash flow has been volatile year-to-year (including a decline in the latest annual period), but TTM shows a sharp rebound in free cash flow growth, reinforcing strong cash-producing fundamentals.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.45B	1.33B	1.24B	1.17B	1.01B
Gross Profit	508.85M	494.65M	436.00M	428.28M	392.78M
EBITDA	182.91M	240.06M	232.74M	198.37M	135.64M
Net Income	103.61M	139.31M	133.57M	108.57M	40.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.40B	2.48B	2.13B	2.12B	2.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	98.47M	132.53M	87.72M	67.49M	75.34M
Total Debt	304.43M	437.31M	327.70M	454.17M	500.23M
Total Liabilities	589.21M	756.58M	553.92M	684.09M	891.48M
Stockholders Equity	1.81B	1.73B	1.57B	1.44B	1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	157.91M	208.03M	156.24M	104.34M	125.38M
Operating Cash Flow	178.46M	214.50M	168.42M	110.09M	132.09M
Investing Cash Flow	-20.93M	-286.88M	-12.19M	-8.16M	-2.51M
Financing Cash Flow	-191.21M	117.10M	-135.84M	-109.49M	-150.05M

Simply Good Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 20.66
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.73, above the 50-day MA of 19.59, and below the 200-day MA of 28.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SMPL.

Simply Good Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CENT	73 Outperform	$1.88B	12.72	10.38%	―	-2.23%	57.16%
JJSF	69 Neutral	$1.80B	28.27	6.82%	3.53%	0.54%	-24.42%
BRBR	67 Neutral	$2.94B	13.76	―	―	16.05%	-10.17%
SMPL	65 Neutral	$1.98B	23.02	5.17%	―	8.98%	-26.29%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
STKL	51 Neutral	$449.21M	-827.45	2.23%	―	11.31%	99.83%

Simply Good Foods Corporate Events

Simply Good Foods Amends Credit Agreement for $150M

On November 19, 2025, Simply Good Foods USA, Inc. amended its Credit Agreement to establish a $150 million incremental term facility for working capital and corporate purposes. The amendment also extended the maturity dates for its revolving and term loan facilities, impacting the company’s financial flexibility and operational strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMPL) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simply Good Foods stock, see the SMPL Stock Forecast page.