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The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL)
:SMPL

Simply Good Foods (SMPL) AI Stock Analysis

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Simply Good Foods

(NASDAQ:SMPL)

Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$39.00
▲(22.37%Upside)
Simply Good Foods' strong financial performance and promising earnings call guidance are key drivers of the score. While technical analysis suggests caution with bearish trends, the company's robust operational growth and strategic initiatives provide a solid foundation. Valuation remains reasonable, supporting a positive overall outlook.
Positive Factors
Brand Momentum
Continued Quest and OWYN momentum, including incremental distribution gains, is offsetting more tempered expectations for Atkins.
Financial Performance
The stock closed higher due to a strong EBITDA beat, driven by gross margin upside compared to consensus.
Productivity and Synergies
Benefits from SMPL's productivity efforts and OWYN synergies are expected to improve sequentially.
Negative Factors
Brand Challenges
The company's strategy suggests the Atkins brand will likely remain pressured in FY26.
Inflation and Costs
Potential margin pressure is expected from cocoa and whey inflation, tariffs, and increased marketing spend.
Sales and Earnings Outlook
Sales and EBITDA growth could come in at the bottom half of guidance ranges due to recent takeaway trends and increased inflation.

Simply Good Foods (SMPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Simply Good Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Simply Good Foods Company operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacements. It offers protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, pizza, protein chips, recipes, and confectionery products, as well as licensed frozen meals under the Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest brand names. The company distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug channels, club stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including atkins.com, questnutrition.com, and amazon.com. The Simply Good Foods Company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
How the Company Makes MoneySimply Good Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its products across various channels, including retail outlets, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales. The company's key revenue streams are its Atkins and Quest brands, which are popular for their low-carbohydrate, high-protein bars, snacks, and shakes. Revenue is bolstered by strategic partnerships with major retailers and distribution agreements that ensure widespread availability of its products. Additionally, Simply Good Foods benefits from a growing consumer trend towards healthier eating, which drives demand for its offerings. The company also invests in marketing and innovation to expand its product line and enhance brand recognition, further contributing to its earnings.

Simply Good Foods Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 09, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -3.98%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 10, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong performance from Quest and OWYN, with notable growth in sales and strategic initiatives. However, challenges with Atkins' declining sales and potential cost pressures from tariffs and gross margin declines were significant concerns.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Quest and OWYN Double-Digit Growth
Quest and OWYN, which represent 70% of net sales, grew 12% and 57% respectively in the first half, driving overall company growth.
Quest Salty Snacks Expansion
Quest's Salty Snacks platform grew 45% in the quarter, now representing 35% of total Quest retail sales, with a successful national test at a key club customer.
OWYN Retail Takeaway Growth
OWYN's retail takeaway increased 52%, driven by ready-to-drink shakes growing 53% and a 22% increase in distribution.
Debt Repayment and Repricing
The company repaid $100 million of its term loan since the beginning of the fiscal year and repriced the term loan, saving nearly $2 million annually.
Negative Updates
Atkins Consumption Decline
Atkins consumption declined 10%, driven by reduced display space and distribution losses at a key club customer.
Gross Margin Decline
Gross margin declined 120 basis points to 36.2%, impacted by the inclusion of OWYN and inflationary pressures.
Tariff Impact on Costs
New tariffs are expected to impact 15% to 20% of total COGS, posing a cost headwind of $5 million to $10 million in fiscal 2025.
Company Guidance
During The Simply Good Foods Company's Fiscal Year 2025 Second Quarter Conference Call, management provided guidance reflecting strong performance metrics. Quest and OWYN brands demonstrated substantial growth, with retail sales increasing by 12% and 57%, respectively. Overall, the company's net sales rose by 15% compared to the previous year, with organic growth at 4%, driven by Quest's performance. Adjusted EBITDA also saw an 18% increase. For the full fiscal year 2025, the company expects net sales to rise between 8.5% to 10.5% and adjusted EBITDA to grow by 4% to 6%. They maintain a strong emphasis on innovation, distribution expansion, and brand awareness, particularly for Quest, now accounting for 60% of net sales. Additionally, the company aims to manage challenges associated with tariffs and inflation, while leveraging productivity initiatives to support long-term growth.

Simply Good Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Simply Good Foods demonstrates strong financial health across all statements. The income statement shows robust growth and profitability, the balance sheet reflects a solid equity base and improving leverage, and cash flow confirms strong cash generation and financial flexibility. While debt levels require monitoring, overall trajectory remains positive.
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Simply Good Foods has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a consistent upward trajectory over the past five years. The gross profit margin remains healthy, and the net profit margin shows substantial improvement, indicating increased efficiency and profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect a robust operating performance, contributing to the company's stability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company maintains a solid equity position with a favorable equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio has been improving, reflecting a decrease in leverage, which lowers financial risk. Return on equity is strong, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits. However, the total debt level, while manageable, requires ongoing monitoring to ensure financial health.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Operating cash flow has shown consistent growth, aligning well with net income, indicating quality earnings. The free cash flow growth rate is positive, supporting future business expansions and debt repayments. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, demonstrating the company's ability to convert earnings into cash effectively.
BreakdownTTMSep 2024Sep 2023Sep 2022Sep 2021Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.41B1.33B1.24B1.17B1.01B816.64M
Gross Profit531.85M511.57M453.42M445.56M409.77M324.33M
EBITDA248.01M240.06M232.74M198.37M135.64M131.63M
Net Income145.49M139.31M133.57M108.57M40.88M65.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.43B2.44B2.10B2.09B2.05B2.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments103.68M132.53M87.72M67.49M75.34M95.85M
Total Debt298.54M402.98M289.36M409.54M455.34M601.48M
Total Liabilities609.42M708.66M525.99M655.59M863.41M869.11M
Stockholders Equity1.82B1.73B1.57B1.44B1.19B1.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow178.43M209.23M158.93M104.88M125.38M56.25M
Operating Cash Flow184.98M215.70M171.12M110.64M132.09M58.92M
Investing Cash Flow-285.60M-286.88M-12.19M-8.16M-2.51M-983.99M
Financing Cash Flow68.17M115.90M-138.53M-110.03M-150.05M754.65M

Simply Good Foods Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price31.87
Price Trends
50DMA
34.16
Negative
100DMA
34.94
Negative
200DMA
35.70
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.66
Negative
RSI
40.36
Neutral
STOCH
23.37
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.48, below the 50-day MA of 34.16, and below the 200-day MA of 35.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMPL.

Simply Good Foods Risk Analysis

Simply Good Foods disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Simply Good Foods reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Simply Good Foods Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$6.60B9.1623.47%2.28%3.82%
76
Outperform
$3.19B22.238.40%11.47%2.59%
69
Neutral
$2.26B29.898.20%2.68%0.49%-12.32%
FLFLO
65
Neutral
$3.31B14.6016.34%6.30%-1.02%81.53%
61
Neutral
$3.31B234.101.54%23.24%60.35%
60
Neutral
HK$19.93B11.900.81%5.34%2.72%-47.45%
UTUTZ
56
Neutral
$1.82B40.393.93%1.89%-1.29%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
31.87
-4.32
-11.94%
BRFS
BRF SA
3.97
-0.03
-0.75%
FLO
Flowers Foods
15.76
-4.66
-22.82%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
117.28
-46.23
-28.27%
FRPT
Freshpet
70.37
-51.57
-42.29%
UTZ
UTZ Brands
13.03
-1.67
-11.36%

Simply Good Foods Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Simply Good Foods Appoints New CFO Christopher Bealer
Neutral
May 28, 2025

On May 23, 2025, Simply Good Foods Company announced the appointment of Christopher J. Bealer as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective July 3, 2025. Bealer, who joined the company in April 2025 as Senior Vice President, Finance, brings nearly 23 years of experience in consumer-packaged goods and consumer durables, including leadership roles at Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC and Whirlpool Corporation. Additionally, on the same date, the company’s Board of Directors amended the Executive Severance Plan to adjust cash severance rates for top executives in the event of a qualifying termination related to a change in control, aiming to enhance recruitment and retention of key executives.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMPL) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simply Good Foods stock, see the SMPL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 22, 2025