Simply Good Foods (SMPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.84B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.45
• Revenue Growth: 11.47%
• EPS Growth: 2.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 316
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 82
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 101,017,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,620,476
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,076,172
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.44
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 26.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $41.00
• Price Target Upside: 11.72% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

Simply Good Foods scores well due to robust financial performance, with strong revenue and cash flow growth. Technical indicators are stable, supporting a positive outlook. The valuation is reasonable, although the lack of dividends may deter some investors. The earnings call highlighted growth prospects, but there are concerns about margin pressures and cost risks. Overall, the stock presents a solid investment opportunity with some challenges to monitor.

Positive Factors

Brand Momentum

Management noted potential for upside based on momentum for Quest and OWYN and the realization of productivity benefits and cost synergies.

Earnings Quality

Earnings quality was solid, with organic sales growth and gross margin above and the operating expense ratio better than forecast.

Financial Outlook

Management raised guidance on Quest to reflect the salty snack platform's outperformance, with salty snacks growing significantly at retail.

Negative Factors

Atkins Brand Pressure

The company's strategy suggests the Atkins brand will likely remain pressured in FY26.

Cost of Goods Sold

The company estimates that 15-20% of their cost of goods sold will be affected by tariffs, resulting in a significant headwind this year.

Tariff Impact

There is incremental uncertainty related to tariffs, including the potential impact on consumer demand.

Simply Good Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacements. It offers protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, pizza, protein chips, recipes, and confectionery products, as well as licensed frozen meals under the Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest brand names. The company distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug channels, club stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including atkins.com, questnutrition.com, and amazon.com. The Simply Good Foods Company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Simply Good Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its health-oriented food products. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales to consumers through retail partners like supermarkets, convenience stores, and online platforms. Additionally, Simply Good Foods benefits from strategic partnerships with major retail chains, which help increase its market penetration and brand visibility. The company also invests in marketing initiatives to promote its products, driving consumer demand and boosting sales. Factors like growing health trends and consumer preference for convenient nutrition solutions significantly contribute to its earnings.

Simply Good Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Simply Good Foods demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth with a stable financial position, notably with zero debt. However, slight declines in EBITDA margin and free cash flow growth are minor concerns.

Income Statement

Simply Good Foods has demonstrated strong growth in its revenue over the past few years, with a revenue growth rate of approximately 7.5% from 2023 to 2024. The company also maintains healthy profitability margins with a gross profit margin of 38.0%, net profit margin of 10.4%, and EBIT margin of 15.5% in the TTM. Although the EBITDA margin slightly decreased from 18.0% to 16.3%, overall profitability remains robust. The consistent revenue and profit growth are strengths, while the slight decline in EBITDA margin is a minor concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Simply Good Foods reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 73.0% and a return on equity of 8.0% in the TTM. The company has effectively reduced its total debt to zero, enhancing its financial stability. However, the debt-to-equity ratio has improved significantly, indicating a more conservative capital structure. The high equity ratio and elimination of debt are notable strengths, though leveraging opportunities for growth may be limited.

Cash Flow

Simply Good Foods shows strong cash flow management with a free cash flow growth rate of -7.2% from 2023 to 2024, reflecting a slight decline but remains positive overall. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 1.41, indicating efficient conversion of income to cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio is similarly healthy at 1.37. Overall, the company displays strong cash flow generation, though the slight decline in free cash flow growth warrants attention.

Breakdown
Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.33B	1.24B	1.17B	1.01B	816.64M
	Gross Profit
511.57M	453.42M	445.56M	409.77M	324.33M
	EBIT
206.50M	204.95M	202.76M	173.68M	78.22M
	EBITDA
240.06M	232.74M	198.37M	135.64M	131.63M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
139.31M	133.57M	108.57M	40.88M	65.64M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
132.53M	87.72M	67.49M	75.34M	95.85M
	Total Assets
2.44B	2.10B	2.09B	2.05B	2.01B
	Total Debt
402.98M	289.36M	409.54M	455.34M	601.48M
	Net Debt
270.45M	201.64M	342.04M	380.00M	505.63M
	Total Liabilities
708.66M	525.99M	655.59M	863.41M	869.11M
	Stockholders Equity
1.73B	1.57B	1.44B	1.19B	1.14B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
209.23M	158.93M	104.88M	125.38M	56.25M
	Operating Cash Flow
215.70M	171.12M	110.64M	132.09M	58.92M
	Investing Cash Flow
-286.88M	-12.19M	-8.16M	-2.51M	-983.99M
	Financing Cash Flow
115.90M	-138.53M	-110.03M	-150.05M	754.65M

Simply Good Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 36.70
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 36.7 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.89, above the 50-day MA of 35.53, and above the 200-day MA of 35.55, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.78 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SMPL.

Simply Good Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SMPL	77 Outperform	$3.84B	26.50	8.40%	―	11.47%	2.59%
BRFS	77 Outperform	$6.66B	10.76	21.60%	2.25%	5.85%	―
JJSF	70 Outperform	$2.47B	29.23	9.08%	2.37%	2.14%	5.38%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$8.88B	14.97	4.63%	174.27%	3.67%	4.40%
UTZ	63 Neutral	$1.72B	64.92	2.33%	1.79%	-2.01%	―
FRPT	63 Neutral	$3.72B	81.86	4.67%	―	27.16%	―
FLO	58 Neutral	$3.90B	15.80	17.97%	5.57%	0.25%	101.63%

Simply Good Foods Corporate Events

Simply Good Foods Announces Leadership Changes and Approvals

The Simply Good Foods Company announced the retirement of its Chief Financial Officer, Shaun P. Mara, effective July 3, 2025. Christopher J. Bealer has been appointed as Senior Vice President of Finance and is expected to succeed Mara. Bealer, who brings extensive experience from leading companies, will join the company on April 1, 2025. Additionally, the company held its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders on January 23, 2025, where all proposed matters, including the election of directors and executive compensation, were approved.