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Simply Good Foods (SMPL)
NASDAQ:SMPL
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Simply Good Foods (SMPL) AI Stock Analysis

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SMPL

Simply Good Foods

(NASDAQ:SMPL)

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Neutral 63 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$21.50
▲(9.19% Upside)
Simply Good Foods' overall stock score reflects a solid financial foundation but is tempered by technical weaknesses and mixed earnings call sentiment. The company's strategic focus on brand growth and operational improvements is promising, but challenges with the Atkins brand and margin pressures need to be addressed to improve the outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong Brand Performance
The Quest brand's strong growth indicates robust consumer demand and effective brand positioning, contributing to long-term revenue stability.
Debt Management
Effective debt management enhances financial flexibility and reduces interest expenses, supporting sustainable growth and investment capacity.
Capacity Expansion
Increasing production capacity for high-demand products positions the company to capture market growth and improve operational efficiency.
Negative Factors
Atkins Brand Decline
The decline in the Atkins brand reflects challenges in maintaining market share and could impact overall revenue if not addressed.
Margin Pressures
Sustained margin pressures from input costs and tariffs could hinder profitability and limit the company's ability to invest in growth.
OWYN Product Issues
Product quality issues can damage brand reputation and consumer trust, potentially affecting sales and long-term brand loyalty.

Simply Good Foods (SMPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Simply Good Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSimply Good Foods is a leading nutrition company that specializes in the development, marketing, and distribution of nutritional snack products and meal replacement bars. Operating primarily in the health and wellness sector, the company focuses on delivering high-protein, low-carb, and convenient food options to meet the needs of health-conscious consumers. Its core products include popular brands such as Quest and Atkins, which cater to various dietary preferences including keto and low-sugar diets.
How the Company Makes MoneySimply Good Foods generates revenue through the sale of its branded nutritional products across multiple channels, including retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales. The company benefits from a diverse revenue model that includes product sales, which are driven by strong consumer demand for health-focused snacks and meals. Additionally, Simply Good Foods has established significant partnerships with major retailers, allowing its products to reach a broader audience. The company also invests in marketing and promotional strategies to enhance brand visibility and drive sales, contributing to its overall earnings.

Simply Good Foods Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with strong growth in the Quest and OWYN brands and successful debt repayment and stock repurchase efforts. However, these positives are offset by significant challenges, including the decline of the Atkins brand, product quality issues with OWYN, and pressures from cocoa costs and tariffs affecting margins.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Performance of Quest Brand
Quest, which represented almost 2/3 of net sales in Q4, delivered year-over-year consumption growth of 11% in the quarter and expanded household penetration to 19%. Quest grew consumption by 12% and net sales by 13% on a 52-week basis for the fiscal year 2025.
Successful Integration and Growth of OWYN
OWYN's consumption grew 14% in the fourth quarter and 34% for the full year, with household penetration up 100 basis points to 4.2%.
Debt Repayment and Stock Repurchase
The company repaid $150 million of its term loan debt, bringing total repayments to $240 million, and repurchased nearly 1.6 million shares, or almost 2% of outstanding common stock, using approximately $51 million.
Expansion of Salty Snacks Capacity
The company is expanding capacity for its fast-growing Salty Snacks business with construction on an additional production line now in progress.
Negative Updates
Decline in Atkins Brand
Atkins consumption declined 12% for Q4 and 10% for the full year, primarily driven by losing distribution at club and not repeating certain high-volume, low ROI merchandising events.
Cocoa and Tariff-Related Margin Pressure
Gross margin declined by 450 basis points in Q4 due to elevated input costs, particularly cocoa, and the impact of tariffs, which are expected to continue in the first half of fiscal year 2026.
OWYN Product Quality Issues
OWYN faced a product quality issue related to a raw material sourcing decision for P Protein, affecting taste and texture as the product aged, leading to slower consumption growth.
Impairment Charge on Atkins Brand
A noncash loss on impairment of $60.9 million was recorded related to the Atkins brand and related intangible assets due to performance in fiscal year 2025.
Company Guidance
During The Simply Good Foods Company's fiscal fourth quarter 2025 conference call, significant guidance was provided regarding the company's financial outlook and strategic direction. The company reported a 9% growth in net sales for the fiscal year, with a 3% increase on an organic basis, and adjusted EBITDA growth of 3%. Looking ahead to fiscal year 2026, they expect net sales growth to range from -2% to 2%, and adjusted EBITDA to range from -4% to 1%. The guidance also highlighted the impact of inflation and tariffs on margins, with gross margins anticipated to decline by 100 to 150 basis points. The company's strategic focus includes enhancing the Quest and OWYN brands, which together represent approximately 75% of net sales and have shown double-digit growth. Simply Good Foods plans to address challenges with Atkins, which is expected to see a 20% decline in consumption in fiscal year 2026, by rightsizing its shelf space and focusing on a core assortment. The company also aims to capitalize on the growing demand for high-protein, low-sugar products through increased investment in innovation, marketing, and capacity expansion.

Simply Good Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Simply Good Foods shows a strong equity position and manageable debt levels. However, recent declines in profit margins and free cash flow growth suggest potential challenges. The company should focus on improving operational efficiencies and maintaining cash flow stability.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Simply Good Foods has shown a consistent revenue growth trajectory over the years, although the most recent year experienced a slight decline. The gross profit margin remains stable, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased, suggesting potential challenges in controlling operational costs or increased competition. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also seen a decline, which could impact profitability if not addressed.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio, indicating improved financial stability. Return on equity has slightly decreased, which could be a concern if it continues. The equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet shows resilience and a capacity to manage financial obligations effectively.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Operating cash flow remains strong relative to net income, indicating good cash generation capabilities. However, the free cash flow has seen a decline, which could affect future investment capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, but the recent negative growth in free cash flow is a point of concern that needs monitoring.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.45B1.45B1.33B1.24B1.17B1.01B
Gross Profit508.85M508.85M494.65M436.00M428.28M392.78M
EBITDA184.25M182.91M240.06M232.74M198.37M135.64M
Net Income103.61M103.61M139.31M133.57M108.57M40.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.40B2.40B2.48B2.13B2.12B2.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments98.47M98.47M132.53M87.72M67.49M75.34M
Total Debt249.07M249.07M437.31M327.70M454.17M500.23M
Total Liabilities589.21M589.21M756.58M553.92M684.09M891.48M
Stockholders Equity1.81B1.81B1.73B1.57B1.44B1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow157.91M157.91M208.03M156.24M104.34M125.38M
Operating Cash Flow178.46M178.46M214.50M168.42M110.09M132.09M
Investing Cash Flow-20.93M-20.93M-286.88M-12.19M-8.16M-2.51M
Financing Cash Flow-191.21M-191.21M117.10M-135.84M-109.49M-150.05M

Simply Good Foods Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price19.69
Price Trends
50DMA
25.73
Negative
100DMA
28.71
Negative
200DMA
32.26
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.50
Positive
RSI
22.77
Positive
STOCH
20.26
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.36, below the 50-day MA of 25.73, and below the 200-day MA of 32.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.77 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.26 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMPL.

Simply Good Foods Risk Analysis

Simply Good Foods disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Simply Good Foods reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Simply Good Foods Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
$1.80B14.218.70%-4.90%0.29%
$1.71B21.088.79%3.57%0.50%-4.46%
$1.97B19.345.86%8.98%-26.29%
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
$655.62M-1.34%10.90%96.02%
-4.30%-70.31%
$3.98B18.0616.27%5.13%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
19.69
-14.25
-41.99%
CENT
Central Garden Pet
31.18
-2.99
-8.75%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
87.94
-74.06
-45.72%
STKL
SunOpta
5.43
-0.43
-7.34%
BRBR
BellRing Brands
30.84
-35.97
-53.84%
KLG
WK Kellogg Co
23.00
6.52
39.56%

Simply Good Foods Corporate Events

Simply Good Foods Reports Mixed 2025 Results, Eyes Growth
Oct 24, 2025

The Simply Good Foods Company, a prominent player in the Nutritional Snacking sector, offers a range of high-protein, low-sugar, and low-carb snacks and beverages under brands like Quest, Atkins, and OWYN. The company recently released its financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, highlighting a challenging period marked by a net loss in the fourth quarter and a decrease in net sales compared to the previous year. Despite these challenges, the company reported a 9% increase in net sales for the fiscal year, driven by the acquisition of OWYN and organic growth in its existing brands. Key financial metrics for the fourth quarter showed a decline, with net sales at $369 million and a net loss of $12.4 million, attributed to factors like elevated input costs and a non-cash impairment charge related to the Atkins brand. Looking forward, Simply Good Foods anticipates a mixed fiscal year 2026, with net sales expected to fluctuate between a 2% decrease and a 2% increase, and gross margins projected to decline. The company remains focused on long-term growth through innovation, increased marketing for Quest and OWYN, and strategic investments, despite facing headwinds from reduced distribution for Atkins and inflationary pressures.

Simply Good Foods Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges
Oct 24, 2025

The Simply Good Foods Company’s recent earnings call presented a mixed sentiment, reflecting both strong growth and notable challenges. While the Quest and OWYN brands showed impressive performance and the company made strides in debt repayment and stock repurchase, these positives were tempered by the decline of the Atkins brand, product quality issues with OWYN, and pressures from cocoa costs and tariffs impacting margins.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 26, 2025