Simply Good Foods (SMPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.86B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.76M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: 8.98%
• EPS Growth: -26.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 316
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 99,857,850
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,340,908
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,759,186
• PEG Ratio: -1.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.99
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.66
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.72
• 1Y Price Target: $27.38
• Price Target Upside: 46.89% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.50 ▲(15.34% Upside)

Simply Good Foods' overall stock score reflects a solid financial foundation but is tempered by technical weaknesses and mixed earnings call sentiment. The company's strategic focus on brand growth and operational improvements is promising, but challenges with the Atkins brand and margin pressures need to be addressed to improve the outlook.

Positive Factors

Strong Brand Performance

The Quest brand's strong growth indicates robust consumer demand and effective brand positioning, contributing to long-term revenue stability.

Debt Management

Effective debt management enhances financial flexibility and reduces interest expenses, supporting sustainable growth and investment capacity.

Capacity Expansion

Increasing production capacity for high-demand products positions the company to capture market growth and improve operational efficiency.

Negative Factors

Atkins Brand Decline

The decline in the Atkins brand reflects challenges in maintaining market share and could impact overall revenue if not addressed.

Margin Pressures

Sustained margin pressures from input costs and tariffs could hinder profitability and limit the company's ability to invest in growth.

OWYN Product Issues

Product quality issues can damage brand reputation and consumer trust, potentially affecting sales and long-term brand loyalty.

Simply Good Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacements. It offers protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, pizza, protein chips, recipes, and confectionery products, as well as licensed frozen meals under the Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest brand names. The company distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug channels, club stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including atkins.com, questnutrition.com, and amazon.com. The Simply Good Foods Company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Simply Good Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded products across various distribution channels, including grocery stores, club stores, convenience stores, and online platforms. Key revenue streams include direct sales from retail partners, e-commerce sales through their own website and third-party platforms, and partnerships with health and fitness retailers. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with distributors and retailers, which enhance its market reach. Additionally, Simply Good Foods invests in marketing and promotional activities to drive brand awareness and customer engagement, contributing to its overall sales growth.

Simply Good Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Simply Good Foods shows a strong equity position and manageable debt levels. However, recent declines in profit margins and free cash flow growth suggest potential challenges. The company should focus on improving operational efficiencies and maintaining cash flow stability.

Income Statement

Simply Good Foods has shown a consistent revenue growth trajectory over the years, although the most recent year experienced a slight decline. The gross profit margin remains stable, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased, suggesting potential challenges in controlling operational costs or increased competition. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also seen a decline, which could impact profitability if not addressed.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with a decreasing debt-to-equity ratio, indicating improved financial stability. Return on equity has slightly decreased, which could be a concern if it continues. The equity ratio remains healthy, suggesting a solid capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet shows resilience and a capacity to manage financial obligations effectively.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong relative to net income, indicating good cash generation capabilities. However, the free cash flow has seen a decline, which could affect future investment capabilities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, but the recent negative growth in free cash flow is a point of concern that needs monitoring.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.45B	1.45B	1.33B	1.24B	1.17B	1.01B
Gross Profit	508.85M	508.85M	494.65M	436.00M	428.28M	392.78M
EBITDA	184.25M	182.91M	240.06M	232.74M	198.37M	135.64M
Net Income	103.61M	103.61M	139.31M	133.57M	108.57M	40.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.40B	2.40B	2.48B	2.13B	2.12B	2.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	98.47M	98.47M	132.53M	87.72M	67.49M	75.34M
Total Debt	249.07M	249.07M	437.31M	327.70M	454.17M	500.23M
Total Liabilities	589.21M	589.21M	756.58M	553.92M	684.09M	891.48M
Stockholders Equity	1.81B	1.81B	1.73B	1.57B	1.44B	1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	157.91M	157.91M	208.03M	156.24M	104.34M	125.38M
Operating Cash Flow	178.46M	178.46M	214.50M	168.42M	110.09M	132.09M
Investing Cash Flow	-20.93M	-20.93M	-286.88M	-12.19M	-8.16M	-2.51M
Financing Cash Flow	-191.21M	-191.21M	117.10M	-135.84M	-109.49M	-150.05M

Simply Good Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.64
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.42, below the 50-day MA of 21.16, and below the 200-day MA of 29.72, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 33.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMPL.

Simply Good Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CENT	73 Outperform	$1.83B	14.32	10.38%	―	-2.23%	57.00%
JJSF	69 Neutral	$1.74B	26.83	6.82%	3.38%	0.54%	-24.42%
BRBR	67 Neutral	$3.66B	19.84	―	―	16.05%	-10.17%
SMPL	63 Neutral	$1.86B	18.31	5.86%	―	8.98%	-26.29%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
KLG	57 Neutral	―	―	―	―	-4.30%	-70.31%
STKL	51 Neutral	$638.71M	―	2.23%	―	11.31%	99.83%

Simply Good Foods Corporate Events

Simply Good Foods Amends Credit Agreement for $150M

On November 19, 2025, Simply Good Foods USA, Inc. amended its Credit Agreement to establish a $150 million incremental term facility for working capital and corporate purposes. The amendment also extended the maturity dates for its revolving and term loan facilities, impacting the company’s financial flexibility and operational strategy.