Simply Good Foods (SMPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.48B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: 14.22%
• EPS Growth: -1.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 316
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 100,541,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,310,932
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,301,113
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.50
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.96
• 1Y Price Target: $36.25
• Price Target Upside: 49.42% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $31.00 ▲(27.78% Upside)

Simply Good Foods' overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including significant sales growth and strategic debt management. However, technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and valuation metrics suggest the stock is fairly priced but lacks a dividend yield. The decline in the Atkins brand and gross margin pressures are notable risks.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant increase in net sales, supported by both acquisitions and organic growth, indicates strong market demand and effective business expansion strategies, which are crucial for long-term growth.

Brand Performance

Quest's strong performance and increased household penetration demonstrate robust brand strength and consumer loyalty, which are vital for sustaining competitive advantage and market position.

Debt Management

Effective debt management, including significant repayment, enhances financial flexibility and reduces interest burden, contributing to long-term financial stability.

Negative Factors

Brand Decline

The decline in Atkins brand consumption highlights challenges in maintaining market share and could impact overall revenue if not addressed, indicating potential brand vulnerability.

Gross Margin Pressure

Sustained gross margin pressure from rising input costs could erode profitability and necessitate strategic cost management to maintain financial health.

Future Cost Challenges

Anticipated inflation and tariff impacts pose ongoing cost challenges, potentially affecting margins and requiring proactive measures to mitigate long-term financial strain.

Simply Good Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacements. It offers protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, pizza, protein chips, recipes, and confectionery products, as well as licensed frozen meals under the Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest brand names. The company distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug channels, club stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including atkins.com, questnutrition.com, and amazon.com. The Simply Good Foods Company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Simply Good Foods generates revenue through the sale of its branded nutritional products across multiple channels, including retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales. The company benefits from a diverse revenue model that includes product sales, which are driven by strong consumer demand for health-focused snacks and meals. Additionally, Simply Good Foods has established significant partnerships with major retailers, allowing its products to reach a broader audience. The company also invests in marketing and promotional strategies to enhance brand visibility and drive sales, contributing to its overall earnings.

Simply Good Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Simply Good Foods demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, healthy profit margins, and a solid balance sheet. The company's low leverage and efficient cash generation highlight its financial resilience. However, careful attention to cash reserves and operational expenses will be crucial to sustaining growth and stability in the future.

Income Statement

Simply Good Foods has shown consistent revenue growth and strong profitability over the years, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 9.5% and a solid net profit margin of 9.97%. The company's gross profit margin is robust at 37.63%, indicating effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy, reflecting operational efficiency. However, the slight decrease in EBITDA margin from the previous year suggests a need to monitor operating expenses closely.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, indicating low leverage and financial stability. Return on equity is impressive at 7.89%, showing good returns on shareholder investment. The equity ratio of 75.75% underscores the company's solid capital structure. However, the decrease in cash and cash equivalents is a point of concern, suggesting potential liquidity challenges.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong with a TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.25, highlighting effective cash generation from operations. The free cash flow growth rate is notable at -16.68%, primarily due to higher capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.20, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. Despite minor fluctuations, the company's cash flow is healthy, supporting ongoing operations and investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.46B	1.33B	1.24B	1.17B	1.01B	816.64M
Gross Profit	548.32M	511.57M	453.42M	445.56M	409.77M	324.33M
EBITDA	248.22M	240.06M	232.74M	198.37M	135.64M	131.63M
Net Income	145.26M	139.31M	133.57M	108.57M	40.88M	65.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.43B	2.44B	2.10B	2.09B	2.05B	2.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	98.01M	132.53M	87.72M	67.49M	75.34M	95.85M
Total Debt	248.92M	402.98M	289.36M	454.02M	500.23M	601.48M
Total Liabilities	589.44M	708.66M	525.99M	655.59M	863.41M	869.11M
Stockholders Equity	1.84B	1.73B	1.57B	1.44B	1.19B	1.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	174.37M	209.23M	158.93M	104.88M	125.38M	56.25M
Operating Cash Flow	182.04M	215.70M	171.12M	110.64M	132.09M	58.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-286.73M	-286.88M	-12.19M	-8.16M	-2.51M	-983.99M
Financing Cash Flow	-5.74M	115.90M	-138.53M	-110.03M	-150.05M	754.65M

Simply Good Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 24.26
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.63, below the 50-day MA of 27.83, and below the 200-day MA of 33.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMPL.

Simply Good Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SMPL	71 Outperform	$2.48B	17.26	8.22%	―	14.22%	-1.81%
CENT	68 Neutral	$1.81B	14.10	8.70%	―	-4.90%	0.29%
JJSF	68 Neutral	$1.87B	22.42	8.79%	3.31%	0.50%	-4.46%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
STKL	60 Neutral	$713.57M	―	-1.34%	―	10.90%	96.02%
BRBR	60 Neutral	$4.25B	19.28	-190.65%	―	16.27%	5.13%
KLG	57 Neutral	$1.99B	57.27	10.57%	2.85%	-4.30%	-70.31%

Simply Good Foods Corporate Events

Simply Good Foods Appoints New CFO Christopher Bealer

On May 23, 2025, Simply Good Foods Company announced the appointment of Christopher J. Bealer as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective July 3, 2025. Bealer, who joined the company in April 2025 as Senior Vice President, Finance, brings nearly 23 years of experience in consumer-packaged goods and consumer durables, including leadership roles at Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC and Whirlpool Corporation. Additionally, on the same date, the company’s Board of Directors amended the Executive Severance Plan to adjust cash severance rates for top executives in the event of a qualifying termination related to a change in control, aiming to enhance recruitment and retention of key executives.