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Simply Good Foods
(NASDAQ:SMPL)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(12.52% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/12/26
SMPL scores below average primarily due to the sharp TTM profitability deterioration and the earnings-call outlook pointing to further year-over-year declines in sales, margins, and EBITDA. Offsetting this, the company still generates positive free cash flow and maintains moderate leverage, which helps cushion the downside. Technicals are neutral with only modest near-term improvement, and valuation is not supported by a negative P/E and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Despite a TTM GAAP loss, the business converts sales into meaningful cash: TTM operating cash flow $147.5M and free cash flow $119.4M. That persistent cash generation funds capex, restructuring, and buybacks, bolstering financial flexibility over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability deterioration
The abrupt swing to a sizable TTM net loss and compressed gross margins (down to ~32% from historical ~35–37%) indicates structural pressure from mix, pricing, or cost inflation. If sustained, this weak profitability erodes retained earnings and limits reinvestment capacity over multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Despite a TTM GAAP loss, the business converts sales into meaningful cash: TTM operating cash flow $147.5M and free cash flow $119.4M. That persistent cash generation funds capex, restructuring, and buybacks, bolstering financial flexibility over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Simply Good Foods (SMPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$900.53M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth-4.48%
EPS Growth-250.67%
CountryUS
Employees328
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.17
Shares Outstanding88,460,550
10 Day Avg. Volume2,724,769
30 Day Avg. Volume2,561,680
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.07
Price to Book (P/B)1.60
Price to Sales (P/S)1.99
P/FCF Ratio18.26
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.14Price Target Upside57.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.35B
Simply Good Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a global purveyor of consumer packaged food and beverage items, with a significant presence across North America and in international markets. Its core business revolves around the creation, promotion, and...
How the Company Makes Money
Simply Good Foods makes money primarily by selling branded nutrition products to retailers, distributors, and e-commerce customers. Its core revenue streams come from (1) Atkins-branded products (e.g., low-carb nutrition bars, shakes, and related ...
Simply Good Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 09, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presented a mix of operational progress and clear execution wins (notably within Quest chips and select innovations) and decisive actions on cost, pricing and marketing. However, material YoY declines in revenue, gross margin compression, a significant $82M impairment, steep deterioration at Atkins, retail takeaway underperformance versus the category, and downgraded FY guidance indicate substantial near-term challenges. Management emphasized that the turnaround is in early stages with plans to rebuild margins, refocus marketing and reset distribution, but the financial trajectory remains negative in the near term.Positive Updates
Quarterly results ahead of expectations
Q3 net sales $357.0M (down 6.3% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $57.2M (down 22.5% YoY) came in ahead of management's internal expectations and reinforced progress on turnaround execution.
Negative Updates
Material declines in core financial metrics
Net sales declined 6.3% YoY to $357M, gross profit fell 16.2% to $116.1M, gross margin declined 390 bps to 32.5%, and adjusted EBITDA declined 22.5% YoY to $57.2M, indicating continued top-line and profitability pressure.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly results ahead of expectations
Q3 net sales $357.0M (down 6.3% YoY) and adjusted EBITDA $57.2M (down 22.5% YoY) came in ahead of management's internal expectations and reinforced progress on turnaround execution.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company updated fiscal 2026 guidance to net sales of $1.345–$1.355 billion (down ~7%–6% year‑over‑year), GAAP gross margins expected to decline roughly 375 basis points, and adjusted EBITDA of $220–$225 million (down ~21%–19%); for Q4 it expects net sales of $322–$332 million (down ~13%–10%), Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $52–$57 million (down ~22%–14%) and a Q4 effective tax rate of ~25%, with Q4 GAAP gross margin forecast as the strongest of the year; capital expenditures are now expected at $25–$30 million, weighted average diluted shares about 90 million, and management noted cash of $123.9 million, a $400 million term loan (net debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA ~1.2x), ~$158 million remaining repurchase authorization and that pricing (a high single‑digit increase effective in September) plus productivity and restructuring are expected to offset ongoing ingredient, packaging and freight inflation.Simply Good Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Aug 2025 | Aug 2024 | Aug 2023 | Aug 2022 | Aug 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.39B | 1.45B | 1.33B | 1.24B | 1.17B | 1.01B |
| Gross Profit | 446.91M | 508.85M | 494.65M | 436.00M | 428.28M | 392.78M |
| EBITDA | -224.72M | 182.91M | 240.06M | 232.74M | 198.37M | 135.64M |
| Net Income | -198.76M | 103.61M | 139.31M | 133.57M | 108.57M | 40.88M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.06B | 2.40B | 2.48B | 2.13B | 2.12B | 2.08B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 123.88M | 98.47M | 132.53M | 87.72M | 67.49M | 75.34M |
| Total Debt | 397.04M | 304.43M | 437.31M | 327.70M | 454.17M | 500.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 644.32M | 589.21M | 756.58M | 553.92M | 684.09M | 891.48M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.42B | 1.81B | 1.73B | 1.57B | 1.44B | 1.19B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 119.42M | 157.91M | 208.03M | 156.24M | 104.34M | 125.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 147.54M | 178.46M | 214.50M | 168.42M | 110.09M | 132.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.83M | -20.93M | -286.88M | -12.19M | -8.16M | -2.51M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -92.95M | -191.21M | 117.10M | -135.84M | -109.49M | -150.05M |
Simply Good Foods Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.22
Price Trends
11.95
Negative
12.48
Negative
15.81
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.45
Negative
48.99
Neutral
69.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.35, below the 50-day MA of 11.95, and below the 200-day MA of 15.81, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SMPL.
Simply Good Foods Risk Analysis
Simply Good Foods disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Simply Good Foods reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Simply Good Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $1.43B | 25.55 | 6.24% | 4.19% | -2.04% | -23.39% | |
66 Neutral | $2.43B | 15.54 | 10.72% | ― | 0.22% | 46.14% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
59 Neutral | $1.44B | 9.46 | -12.35% | ― | 6.37% | -40.20% | |
57 Neutral | $900.53M | -4.69 | -12.33% | ― | -4.48% | -250.67% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
11.18
-18.61
-62.47%
CENT
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44.06
4.65
11.80%
JJSF
J & J Snack Foods
84.66
-22.71
-21.15%
BRBR
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12.61
-26.34
-67.63%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.