Simply Good Foods (SMPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.74B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.96M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: 8.98%
• EPS Growth: -26.29%
• Country: US
• Employees: 316
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.39
• Shares Outstanding: 92,575,260
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,028,644
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,959,005
• PEG Ratio: -1.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.60
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.99
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.26
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.80
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 11.99
• 1Y Price Target: $27.17
• Price Target Upside: 49.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.00 ▲(10.31% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality led by strong cash flow and a reasonable balance sheet, but is held back by weakening near-term fundamentals (TTM revenue decline and margin compression), bearish technicals (below key moving averages with negative momentum), and an earnings outlook that acknowledges near-term pressure (weak Q2 and margin headwinds) despite expectations for a second-half rebound.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation and FCF

Sustained high operating cash flow and strong free cash flow provide durable financial flexibility for investments, working capital, buybacks and debt service. Robust cash conversion (OCF ~1.9x net income) supports operational resilience and optionality through industry cycles over the next several quarters.

Quest brand momentum

Quest's meaningful consumption and sales growth, rising household penetration and strong salty-snack traction indicate a durable competitive position in high‑protein snacks. This brand momentum underpins shelf space gains, higher SKU productivity and the ability to scale marketing investment for lasting revenue expansion.

Experienced leadership reinstated

Bringing back an experienced former CEO who previously led major strategic initiatives signals continuity and a credible turnaround steward. His familiarity with the business and prior M&A/integration experience can accelerate execution of productivity, assortment and growth programs over the medium term.

Negative Factors

TTM revenue decline and margin compression

A trailing‑twelve‑month revenue decline alongside substantial net margin compression reflects weakening operating momentum and pressure on profitability. Persisting top‑line and margin deterioration would reduce reinvestment capacity and returns on equity absent sustained volume recovery or structural cost improvements.

OWYN product quality and retailer destocking

Product quality lapses that trigger retailer destocking damage distribution relationships and interrupt the path-to-shelf for a growth brand. Rebuilding retailer trust and fixing supply/ERP issues requires time, working capital and marketing, delaying durable revenue and margin benefits from OWYN expansion.

Significant gross margin pressure

Material gross margin erosion driven by inflationary and mix pressures undermines core profitability and limits ability to fund marketing and innovation. Unless commodity, tariff and mix pressures sustainably abate or productivity actions recover most of the loss, margin headwinds will constrain durable earnings power and cash flow.

Simply Good Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacements. It offers protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, pizza, protein chips, recipes, and confectionery products, as well as licensed frozen meals under the Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest brand names. The company distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug channels, club stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including atkins.com, questnutrition.com, and amazon.com. The Simply Good Foods Company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Simply Good Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded products across various distribution channels, including grocery stores, club stores, convenience stores, and online platforms. Key revenue streams include direct sales from retail partners, e-commerce sales through their own website and third-party platforms, and partnerships with health and fitness retailers. The company benefits from strategic partnerships with distributors and retailers, which enhance its market reach. Additionally, Simply Good Foods invests in marketing and promotional activities to drive brand awareness and customer engagement, contributing to its overall sales growth.

Simply Good Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are supported by strong cash generation (TTM operating cash flow ~$197M and free cash flow ~$174M with operating cash flow ~1.9x net income) and a generally manageable leverage profile. Offsetting this, TTM revenue is down (-7.4%) and profitability has weakened versus 2023–2024, with net margin compressing to ~6.3% and ROE cooling (~5%), indicating softer near-term operating momentum.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been solid over the last several annual periods, but TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a revenue decline (-7.4%), signaling a near-term slowdown. Profitability has also stepped down from the stronger 2023–2024 levels: gross margin and operating margin are lower in TTM, and net margin has compressed to ~6.3% versus ~10% in 2023–2024. The business remains profitable with positive operating profit, but the trajectory is weaker recently.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable with debt modest relative to equity across the annual periods (debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.17–0.38 range), and equity has grown over time, supporting balance sheet resilience. Returns on equity are positive but have cooled in TTM (~5.0%) versus mid-to-high single digits previously, consistent with the recent earnings slowdown. One data point shows debt-to-equity as 0.0 in TTM, which looks inconsistent with the presence of debt and should be treated cautiously.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a clear strength: operating cash flow remains strong in TTM (~$197M) and supports healthy free cash flow (~$174M). Cash flow conversion is solid with operating cash flow comfortably exceeding net income (about 1.9x in TTM), indicating good earnings quality. Free cash flow has been volatile year-to-year (including a decline in the latest annual period), but TTM shows a sharp rebound in free cash flow growth, reinforcing strong cash-producing fundamentals.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.45B	1.33B	1.24B	1.17B	1.01B
Gross Profit	508.85M	494.65M	436.00M	428.28M	392.78M
EBITDA	182.91M	240.06M	232.74M	198.37M	135.64M
Net Income	103.61M	139.31M	133.57M	108.57M	40.88M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.40B	2.48B	2.13B	2.12B	2.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	98.47M	132.53M	87.72M	67.49M	75.34M
Total Debt	304.43M	437.31M	327.70M	454.17M	500.23M
Total Liabilities	589.21M	756.58M	553.92M	684.09M	891.48M
Stockholders Equity	1.81B	1.73B	1.57B	1.44B	1.19B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	157.91M	208.03M	156.24M	104.34M	125.38M
Operating Cash Flow	178.46M	214.50M	168.42M	110.09M	132.09M
Investing Cash Flow	-20.93M	-286.88M	-12.19M	-8.16M	-2.51M
Financing Cash Flow	-191.21M	117.10M	-135.84M	-109.49M	-150.05M

Simply Good Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 18.13
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.12, below the 50-day MA of 19.71, and below the 200-day MA of 27.05, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.63 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMPL.

Simply Good Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CENT	73 Outperform	$1.94B	13.50	10.38%	―	-2.23%	57.16%
JJSF	70 Outperform	$1.80B	28.31	6.82%	3.53%	0.54%	-24.42%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
SMPL	62 Neutral	$1.74B	20.20	5.17%	―	8.98%	-26.29%
STKL	58 Neutral	$553.06M	-915.69	2.23%	―	11.31%	99.83%
BRBR	58 Neutral	$2.95B	14.53	―	―	16.05%	-10.17%

Simply Good Foods Corporate Events

Simply Good Foods Holds Virtual 2026 Annual Stockholder Meeting

On January 28, 2026, The Simply Good Foods Company held its annual meeting of stockholders in a virtual-only format, where shareholders elected 10 directors to serve until the 2027 annual meeting, ratified Deloitte & Touche LLP as the independent auditor for fiscal 2026, approved a new equity incentive plan to replace the 2017 omnibus plan, and supported both the company’s executive compensation program and holding future advisory votes on pay on an annual basis. Following the meeting, the board appointed employee Joseph E. Scalzo as a director to fill the vacancy created by the January 18, 2026 departure of Geoff E. Tanner, strengthening management’s direct representation on the board while leaving Scalzo off board committees and without additional board compensation, and signaling continued alignment of executive and shareholder incentives through the newly approved incentive plan.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMPL) stock is a Hold with a $20.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simply Good Foods stock, see the SMPL Stock Forecast page.

Simply Good Foods Brings Back Joe Scalzo as CEO

On January 20, 2026, The Simply Good Foods Company announced that longtime former chief executive Joe Scalzo returned as president and CEO, effective January 19, 2026, succeeding Geoff Tanner, who stepped down from the role and from the board on January 18, 2026. Scalzo, a key architect of the company’s strategy and public-market debut and the acquisition of Quest Nutrition, has signed a two-year employment agreement based in Denver that includes a significant inducement stock option for 2 million shares vesting over three years, signaling the board’s commitment to leveraging his experience to reignite growth and improve profitability while leaving existing equity plan pools intact. The company detailed a change-in-control and severance framework for Scalzo and confirmed that he will rejoin the board after the January 28, 2026 annual meeting, while Tanner will receive cash severance, a prorated fiscal 2026 bonus and accelerated vesting of most time-based equity, with his performance stock units forfeited. Separately, the company disclosed that principal accounting officer Timothy Matthews resigned on January 20, 2026, effective February 6, 2026, to pursue an external CFO role, after which CFO Christopher Bealer will assume the additional duties of principal accounting officer without a change in compensation, consolidating financial leadership as Simply Good Foods moves into its next phase with its fiscal 2026 outlook unchanged.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMPL) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simply Good Foods stock, see the SMPL Stock Forecast page.

Simply Good Foods Amends Credit Agreement for $150M

On November 19, 2025, Simply Good Foods USA, Inc. amended its Credit Agreement to establish a $150 million incremental term facility for working capital and corporate purposes. The amendment also extended the maturity dates for its revolving and term loan facilities, impacting the company’s financial flexibility and operational strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMPL) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simply Good Foods stock, see the SMPL Stock Forecast page.