Simply Good Foods (SMPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.89B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.25M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: 14.22%
• EPS Growth: -1.81%
• Country: US
• Employees: 316
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 46
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.51
• Shares Outstanding: 100,541,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,397,573
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,250,530
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.29
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.77
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.96
• 1Y Price Target: $37.67
• Price Target Upside: 29.36% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $31.00 ▲(6.46% Upside)

Simply Good Foods' overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, including significant sales growth and strategic debt management. However, technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and valuation metrics suggest the stock is fairly priced but lacks a dividend yield. The decline in the Atkins brand and gross margin pressures are notable risks.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Organic sales growth remained buoyant at 3.8%, exceeding consensus expectations.

Growth Prospects

Quest and OWYN are expected to show steady growth, with Quest achieving double-digit growth and OWYN mid-20s growth.

Negative Factors

Brand Performance

Sales for the Atkins brand are slower than expected, impacting overall performance.

Cost Pressures

The company is facing challenges with COGS inflation and tariffs.

Simply Good Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacements. It offers protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, pizza, protein chips, recipes, and confectionery products, as well as licensed frozen meals under the Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest brand names. The company distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug channels, club stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including atkins.com, questnutrition.com, and amazon.com. The Simply Good Foods Company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Simply Good Foods generates revenue through the sale of its branded nutritional products across multiple channels, including retail stores, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales. The company benefits from a diverse revenue model that includes product sales, which are driven by strong consumer demand for health-focused snacks and meals. Additionally, Simply Good Foods has established significant partnerships with major retailers, allowing its products to reach a broader audience. The company also invests in marketing and promotional strategies to enhance brand visibility and drive sales, contributing to its overall earnings.

Simply Good Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Simply Good Foods demonstrates strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth, healthy profit margins, and a solid balance sheet. The company's low leverage and efficient cash generation highlight its financial resilience. However, careful attention to cash reserves and operational expenses will be crucial to sustaining growth and stability in the future.

Income Statement

Simply Good Foods has shown consistent revenue growth and strong profitability over the years, with a TTM revenue growth rate of 9.5% and a solid net profit margin of 9.97%. The company's gross profit margin is robust at 37.63%, indicating effective cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy, reflecting operational efficiency. However, the slight decrease in EBITDA margin from the previous year suggests a need to monitor operating expenses closely.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet reveals a strong equity position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.14, indicating low leverage and financial stability. Return on equity is impressive at 7.89%, showing good returns on shareholder investment. The equity ratio of 75.75% underscores the company's solid capital structure. However, the decrease in cash and cash equivalents is a point of concern, suggesting potential liquidity challenges.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong with a TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.25, highlighting effective cash generation from operations. The free cash flow growth rate is notable at -16.68%, primarily due to higher capital expenditures. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.20, suggesting efficient conversion of earnings into cash. Despite minor fluctuations, the company's cash flow is healthy, supporting ongoing operations and investments.

Breakdown	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.33B	1.24B	1.17B	1.01B	816.64M
Gross Profit	511.57M	453.42M	445.56M	409.77M	324.33M
EBITDA	240.06M	232.74M	198.37M	135.64M	131.63M
Net Income	139.31M	133.57M	108.57M	40.88M	65.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.44B	2.10B	2.09B	2.05B	2.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	132.53M	87.72M	67.49M	75.34M	95.85M
Total Debt	402.98M	289.36M	454.02M	500.23M	601.48M
Total Liabilities	708.66M	525.99M	655.59M	863.41M	869.11M
Stockholders Equity	1.73B	1.57B	1.44B	1.19B	1.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	209.23M	158.93M	104.88M	125.38M	56.25M
Operating Cash Flow	215.70M	171.12M	110.64M	132.09M	58.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-286.88M	-12.19M	-8.16M	-2.51M	-983.99M
Financing Cash Flow	115.90M	-138.53M	-110.03M	-150.05M	754.65M

Simply Good Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 29.12
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.41, below the 50-day MA of 31.22, and below the 200-day MA of 35.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMPL.

Simply Good Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BRFS	78 Outperform	$6.09B	9.50	21.17%	2.40%	-1.19%	78.79%
SMPL	71 Outperform	$2.89B	20.10	8.22%	―	14.22%	-1.81%
JJSF	65 Neutral	$2.21B	26.92	8.79%	2.75%	0.50%	-4.46%
FLO	63 Neutral	$3.13B	14.77	15.61%	6.42%	-0.61%	70.09%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$20.46B	14.47	-3.60%	3.13%	2.63%	-6.18%
UTZ	59 Neutral	$1.88B	64.91	2.56%	1.96%	-0.09%	316.21%
FRPT	58 Neutral	$2.83B	87.81	3.26%	―	19.30%	33.65%

Simply Good Foods Corporate Events

Simply Good Foods Appoints New CFO Christopher Bealer

On May 23, 2025, Simply Good Foods Company announced the appointment of Christopher J. Bealer as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective July 3, 2025. Bealer, who joined the company in April 2025 as Senior Vice President, Finance, brings nearly 23 years of experience in consumer-packaged goods and consumer durables, including leadership roles at Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC and Whirlpool Corporation. Additionally, on the same date, the company’s Board of Directors amended the Executive Severance Plan to adjust cash severance rates for top executives in the event of a qualifying termination related to a change in control, aiming to enhance recruitment and retention of key executives.