Simply Good Foods (SMPL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.19B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.42
• Revenue Growth: 11.47%
• EPS Growth: 2.59%
• Country: US
• Employees: 316
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 61
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 0.46
• Shares Outstanding: 101,017,730
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,334,490
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,094,229
• PEG Ratio: 10.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.04
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.42
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.51
• 1Y Price Target: $38.50
• Price Target Upside: 20.80% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: $39.00 ▲(22.37%Upside)

Simply Good Foods' strong financial performance and promising earnings call guidance are key drivers of the score. While technical analysis suggests caution with bearish trends, the company's robust operational growth and strategic initiatives provide a solid foundation. Valuation remains reasonable, supporting a positive overall outlook.

Positive Factors

Brand Momentum

Continued Quest and OWYN momentum, including incremental distribution gains, is offsetting more tempered expectations for Atkins.

Financial Performance

The stock closed higher due to a strong EBITDA beat, driven by gross margin upside compared to consensus.

Productivity and Synergies

Benefits from SMPL's productivity efforts and OWYN synergies are expected to improve sequentially.

Negative Factors

Brand Challenges

The company's strategy suggests the Atkins brand will likely remain pressured in FY26.

Inflation and Costs

Potential margin pressure is expected from cocoa and whey inflation, tariffs, and increased marketing spend.

Sales and Earnings Outlook

Sales and EBITDA growth could come in at the bottom half of guidance ranges due to recent takeaway trends and increased inflation.

Simply Good Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacements. It offers protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, pizza, protein chips, recipes, and confectionery products, as well as licensed frozen meals under the Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest brand names. The company distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug channels, club stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including atkins.com, questnutrition.com, and amazon.com. The Simply Good Foods Company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

How the Company Makes Money

Simply Good Foods generates revenue primarily through the sale of its products across various channels, including retail outlets, e-commerce platforms, and direct-to-consumer sales. The company's key revenue streams are its Atkins and Quest brands, which are popular for their low-carbohydrate, high-protein bars, snacks, and shakes. Revenue is bolstered by strategic partnerships with major retailers and distribution agreements that ensure widespread availability of its products. Additionally, Simply Good Foods benefits from a growing consumer trend towards healthier eating, which drives demand for its offerings. The company also invests in marketing and innovation to expand its product line and enhance brand recognition, further contributing to its earnings.

Simply Good Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Simply Good Foods demonstrates strong financial health across all statements. The income statement shows robust growth and profitability, the balance sheet reflects a solid equity base and improving leverage, and cash flow confirms strong cash generation and financial flexibility. While debt levels require monitoring, overall trajectory remains positive.

Income Statement

Simply Good Foods has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a consistent upward trajectory over the past five years. The gross profit margin remains healthy, and the net profit margin shows substantial improvement, indicating increased efficiency and profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins reflect a robust operating performance, contributing to the company's stability.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid equity position with a favorable equity ratio. The debt-to-equity ratio has been improving, reflecting a decrease in leverage, which lowers financial risk. Return on equity is strong, indicating efficient use of shareholder funds to generate profits. However, the total debt level, while manageable, requires ongoing monitoring to ensure financial health.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has shown consistent growth, aligning well with net income, indicating quality earnings. The free cash flow growth rate is positive, supporting future business expansions and debt repayments. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, demonstrating the company's ability to convert earnings into cash effectively.

Breakdown	TTM	Sep 2024	Sep 2023	Sep 2022	Sep 2021	Sep 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.41B	1.33B	1.24B	1.17B	1.01B	816.64M
Gross Profit	531.85M	511.57M	453.42M	445.56M	409.77M	324.33M
EBITDA	248.01M	240.06M	232.74M	198.37M	135.64M	131.63M
Net Income	145.49M	139.31M	133.57M	108.57M	40.88M	65.64M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.43B	2.44B	2.10B	2.09B	2.05B	2.01B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	103.68M	132.53M	87.72M	67.49M	75.34M	95.85M
Total Debt	298.54M	402.98M	289.36M	409.54M	455.34M	601.48M
Total Liabilities	609.42M	708.66M	525.99M	655.59M	863.41M	869.11M
Stockholders Equity	1.82B	1.73B	1.57B	1.44B	1.19B	1.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	178.43M	209.23M	158.93M	104.88M	125.38M	56.25M
Operating Cash Flow	184.98M	215.70M	171.12M	110.64M	132.09M	58.92M
Investing Cash Flow	-285.60M	-286.88M	-12.19M	-8.16M	-2.51M	-983.99M
Financing Cash Flow	68.17M	115.90M	-138.53M	-110.03M	-150.05M	754.65M

Simply Good Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 31.87
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMPL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.48, below the 50-day MA of 34.16, and below the 200-day MA of 35.70, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SMPL.

Simply Good Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BRFS	81 Outperform	$6.60B	9.16	23.47%	2.28%	3.82%	―
SMPL	76 Outperform	$3.19B	22.23	8.40%	―	11.47%	2.59%
JJSF	69 Neutral	$2.26B	29.89	8.20%	2.68%	0.49%	-12.32%
FLO	65 Neutral	$3.31B	14.60	16.34%	6.30%	-1.02%	81.53%
FRPT	61 Neutral	$3.31B	234.10	1.54%	―	23.24%	60.35%
Sector *	60 Neutral	HK$19.93B	11.90	0.81%	5.34%	2.72%	-47.45%
UTZ	56 Neutral	$1.82B	40.39	3.93%	1.89%	-1.29%	―

Simply Good Foods Corporate Events

Simply Good Foods Appoints New CFO Christopher Bealer

On May 23, 2025, Simply Good Foods Company announced the appointment of Christopher J. Bealer as the new Chief Financial Officer, effective July 3, 2025. Bealer, who joined the company in April 2025 as Senior Vice President, Finance, brings nearly 23 years of experience in consumer-packaged goods and consumer durables, including leadership roles at Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC and Whirlpool Corporation. Additionally, on the same date, the company’s Board of Directors amended the Executive Severance Plan to adjust cash severance rates for top executives in the event of a qualifying termination related to a change in control, aiming to enhance recruitment and retention of key executives.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMPL) stock is a Buy with a $42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Simply Good Foods stock, see the SMPL Stock Forecast page.