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Bellring Brands Inc Class A (BRBR)
:BRBR
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BellRing Brands
(NYSE:BRBR)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$70.00
▲(19.15%Upside)
Positive Factors
Consumer Demand
Demand for the company's on-trend protein shakes and powders remains strong and unaffected by declining U.S. consumer confidence.
Growth Potential
Premier Protein is punching above its weight on shelf and allocation for protein shakes should continue to grow.
Market Position
BellRing Brands is a leader in the global convenient nutrition category offering protein shakes, powders, bars, and more primarily under the Premier Protein and Dymatize brands.
Negative Factors
Input Costs
Margin cadence remains pressured into 2HF25 on input inflation and promotional intensity.
Retailer Destocking
A mid-single digit retailer destocking headwind likely led to the negative share price reaction as it raised concerns about growth slowing.
Sales Growth Concerns
An unexpected retailer inventory destock, while explainable, is contributing to a year-over-year headwind to sales growth.
BellRing Brands (BRBR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.46B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.7
Beta (1Y)0.94
Revenue Growth18.91%
EPS Growth49.43%
CountryUS
Employees485
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength60
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.53
Shares Outstanding126,996,710
10 Day Avg. Volume2,245,895
30 Day Avg. Volume2,052,529
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.29
Price to Book (P/B)-5.12
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio100.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.38
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.65
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$78.54Price Target Upside33.69% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
BellRing Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionBellRing Brands, Inc. is a consumer packaged goods company headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri. The company operates in the health and wellness sector, specializing in the production and marketing of nutrition products. Its core products include ready-to-drink protein shakes, powders, and nutrition bars, which are sold under well-known brand names such as Premier Protein, Dymatize, and PowerBar. BellRing Brands focuses on delivering convenient, high-quality, and great-tasting nutrition products to support healthy lifestyles.
How the Company Makes MoneyBellRing Brands generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded nutrition products, which are distributed across a variety of channels including club stores, e-commerce platforms, convenience stores, and other retail outlets. The company's key revenue streams come from the sales of its ready-to-drink protein shakes, protein powders, and nutrition bars. BellRing Brands leverages strong brand recognition and strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors to maximize its market reach. Additionally, the company invests in marketing and product innovation to drive consumer demand and expand its customer base, which is a significant factor contributing to its earnings.
BellRing Brands Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: -25.09%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a positive outlook with strong revenue growth, market penetration, and successful new products. However, concerns about retailer inventory adjustments, increased inflationary pressures, and potential future tariffs added some caution to the optimism.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Net sales grew 19% year-over-year to $588 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing 14% to $119 million. Premier Protein net sales grew 22%, driven by strong volume growth for RTD shakes and powders.
Premier Protein Achievements
Premier Protein reached all-time highs in household penetration and market share, with a household penetration gain of nearly 1 percentage point, reaching almost 21%. RTD market share was maintained at 27%, solidifying its position as the #1 brand in the RTD and convenient nutrition categories.
Dymatize International Growth
Dymatize's international business grew double digits, contributing to a 3% increase in domestic consumption growth this quarter.
Innovation and New Product Success
The new indulgence line has demonstrated impressive incrementality, bringing in a considerable number of new consumers to the brand and category. The newest seasonal flavor, lemon bar, outpaced expectations.
Strong Cash Flow and Share Repurchase
Generated $48 million in cash flow from operations in Q2 and $51 million in the first half. Repurchased 2.4 million shares at an average price of $71.68 per share, totaling $172 million.
Negative Updates
Retailer Inventory Reductions Impact
Several key retailers lowered their weeks of supply, expected to be a mid-single-digit headwind to third quarter growth, impacting Premier Protein and other brands.
Increased Input Cost Inflation
Anticipation of increased input cost inflation in the second half of '25, which will pressure margins compared to the previous year.
Tariff Concerns
Future tariffs on dairy protein sourced from New Zealand and the EU could partially impact fiscal '26 costs, though fiscal '25 is unaffected.
Company Guidance
In the BellRing Brands Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported a 19% increase in net sales and a strong EBITDA margin of over 20%, driven by Premier Protein's demand. Premier shake consumption rose by 25%, with household penetration and market share reaching new highs. The company affirmed its fiscal 2025 outlook, expecting net sales growth of 13% to 17% and EBITDA growth of 7% to 14%. The convenient nutrition category grew by 12%, with ready-to-drink products up 19%, driven by strong consumer demand and increased promotions. Premier Protein achieved an all-time high household penetration of nearly 21% and maintained its position as the #1 brand in the ready-to-drink segment with a 27% market share. The company also highlighted its strategic focus on promotions and marketing campaigns, including the launch of a new indulgence line and upcoming innovation aimed at expanding household penetration. Despite retailer inventory adjustments, BellRing remains confident in its long-term growth prospects, supported by robust demand and a rich innovation pipeline.BellRing Brands Financial Statement Overview
Summary
BellRing Brands demonstrates strong revenue and profit growth, supported by improved margins and effective cash flow management. However, the financial stability is hindered by high leverage and negative equity, posing potential risks if growth slows or if market conditions change. Continuous monitoring of the leverage and equity position is crucial for sustainable financial health.Income Statement
BellRing Brands exhibits strong revenue growth with a significant increase from $1,371.5 million in 2022 to $2,192.1 million in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months). The gross profit margin has improved from 30.8% in 2022 to 35.8% in TTM, indicating better cost management or pricing power. The net profit margin increased from 8.5% to 12.8% within the same period, demonstrating enhanced profitability. However, the reliance on high leverage could pose a risk if revenue growth slows.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity of -$254.1 million as of TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, indicating potential financial risk. Despite this, the equity ratio has improved slightly due to asset growth. However, the persistent negative equity points to financial instability, necessitating careful monitoring.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has remained positive and relatively stable, and free cash flow has shown growth, moving from $19.2 million in 2022 to $157.1 million in TTM. The free cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting effective cash conversion. Nonetheless, the high financing cash outflow indicates significant debt servicing, which could impact future cash availability.78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | Sep 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.19B | 2.00B | 1.67B | 1.37B | 1.25B | 988.30M |
| Gross Profit | 784.40M | 707.30M | 530.20M | 421.80M | 386.20M | 338.00M |
| EBITDA | 447.90M | 387.70M | 315.60M | 248.20M | 217.60M | 189.30M |
| Net Income | 281.00M | 246.50M | 165.50M | 116.00M | 114.40M | 100.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 947.50M | 837.00M | 691.60M | 707.20M | 696.50M | 653.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.10M | 71.10M | 48.40M | 35.80M | 152.60M | 48.70M |
| Total Debt | 953.70M | 833.10M | 856.80M | 929.50M | 597.50M | 686.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.20B | 1.04B | 1.02B | 1.08B | 762.00M | 814.50M |
| Stockholders Equity | -254.10M | -205.90M | -323.50M | -376.20M | -3.06B | -2.18B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 157.10M | 197.80M | 213.80M | 19.20M | 224.50M | 95.10M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 160.30M | 199.60M | 215.60M | 21.00M | 226.10M | 97.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.20M | -1.80M | -1.80M | -1.80M | -1.60M | -2.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -192.20M | -175.10M | -201.70M | -135.00M | -120.90M | -52.60M |
BellRing Brands Technical Analysis
Negative
58.75
Price Trends
65.70
Negative
69.28
Negative
69.64
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.74
Positive
36.56
Neutral
21.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRBR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 58.75 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 60.79, below the 50-day MA of 65.70, and below the 200-day MA of 69.64, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRBR.
BellRing Brands Risk Analysis
BellRing Brands disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BellRing Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
BellRing Brands Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $7.46B | 26.72 | -190.65% | ― | 18.91% | 49.43% | |
69 Neutral | $5.99B | 19.39 | 9.15% | ― | 1.48% | 9.36% | |
68 Neutral | $7.48B | 21.10 | 21.63% | 2.75% | -2.49% | -65.96% | |
67 Neutral | $9.76B | 31.40 | 3.67% | 6.52% | -3.15% | -65.38% | |
65 Neutral | $9.30B | 20.60 | 11.67% | 5.00% | 8.65% | -38.57% | |
64 Neutral | $26.81B | 15.04 | -4.04% | 3.19% | 0.99% | 2.60% | |
47 Neutral | $10.19B | 22.22 | -17.87% | 4.51% | 6.69% | -261.87% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
BRBR
BellRing Brands
57.26
-0.74
-1.28%
CPB
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30.96
-12.50
-28.76%
CAG
Conagra Brands
20.50
-6.41
-23.82%
SJM
JM Smucker
96.14
-8.37
-8.01%
POST
Post Holdings
108.40
4.58
4.41%
LW
Lamb Weston Holdings
53.19
-28.87
-35.18%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.