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BellRing Brands Inc Class A (BRBR)
NYSE:BRBR

BellRing Brands (BRBR) AI Stock Analysis

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BRBR

BellRing Brands

(NYSE:BRBR)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$25.00
▲(2.50% Upside)
The score is primarily held back by balance-sheet risk (negative equity/high leverage) and bearish technicals (price below major moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include strong cash generation and a moderate P/E, while the latest earnings call supports a mixed outlook: higher full-year EBITDA guidance but meaningful near-term margin compression from inflation, tariffs, and mix.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Sustained, large free cash flow growth increases BellRing's ability to fund innovation, advertising, merchandising, buybacks and debt reduction without diluting equity. Robust cash conversion provides durable financial flexibility to execute long-term growth and return-of-capital plans.
Premier brand market leadership
High market share and record household penetration indicate entrenched brand equity and repeat purchase behavior. This durable competitive advantage supports pricing power, retailer support and distribution depth, helping sustain revenue and defend share against insurgent entrants over the medium term.
Innovation pipeline and international growth
A steady stream of new SKUs and formats plus early RTD success expands addressable occasions and revitalizes core brands. Coupled with Dymatize's international outperformance, innovation and geographic diversification materially broaden growth levers beyond domestic retail cycles.
Negative Factors
Negative shareholders' equity / high leverage
Negative equity and inverted debt-to-equity signal structural balance-sheet risk that constrains financial flexibility. This increases refinancing and covenant sensitivity, limits acquisition currency, and raises risk during demand shocks, making capital allocation and growth more constrained over months.
Material margin pressure from input costs and tariffs
Sustained whey inflation, unfavorable mix and new tariffs create a multi-quarter headwind to gross and EBITDA margins. Persistent input cost elevation forces higher promo or price actions, compresses profitability, and can delay targeted margin recovery despite later cost savings.
Competitive/promotional intensity and channel headwinds
Higher-frequency promotions by insurgent and crossover brands, especially in club channels, risk eroding share and force elevated advertising and trade spend to defend position. Over several quarters this can depress margins and slow sustainable organic growth despite brand investments.

BellRing Brands (BRBR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BellRing Brands Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBellRing Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various nutrition products in the United States and internationally. It offers ready-to-drink shake and powder protein products primarily under the Premier Protein and Dymatize brands. The company sells its products through club, food, drug, mass, eCommerce, specialty, and convenience channels. BellRing Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
How the Company Makes MoneyBellRing Brands generates revenue primarily through the sale of its protein products across various channels. Its direct-to-consumer revenue comes from online sales through its e-commerce platform, while retail sales are driven through partnerships with major grocery chains, convenience stores, and health clubs. The company benefits from brand loyalty and recognition, which helps maintain strong sales volumes. Additionally, strategic partnerships with retailers enhance distribution efficiency and market reach, contributing significantly to overall earnings. Seasonal promotions and marketing campaigns also play a crucial role in driving sales and expanding customer engagement.

BellRing Brands Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 03, 2026
(Q1-2026)
|
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: operational momentum, brand strength, product innovation, and deliberate investments underpin confidence in the medium-term growth story (narrowed FY guidance, continued repurchases, strong campaign and merchandising starts). However, sizeable margin pressure from commodity inflation, tariffs, a significant adjusted gross margin decline (~730 bps ex-hedges), promotional intensity from insurgent competitors (notably in club), and near-term EBITDA margin compression (Q2 ~13%) temper the outlook. Management expects an acceleration in growth and margin improvement in the second half driven by distribution, advertising, innovation and cost savings, making the narrative constructive but mixed in the near term.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Company Revenue and Quarterly Results
Total BellRing net sales for Q1 were $537 million, up 1% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $90 million with a margin of 16.8%. Gross profit was $161 million with a gross margin of 29.9%.
Full-Year Guidance Narrowed and Maintained
Management narrowed FY2026 net sales guidance to $2.41B–$2.46B (4%–6% growth) and updated adjusted EBITDA guidance to $425M–$440M with an approximate 18% margin.
Premier Market Leadership and Consumption Momentum
Premier holds ~22% market share with record-high household penetration, strong brand equity and repeat rates. Consumption showed improvement in January: +6% across all channels and +16% excluding club.
Dymatize Strong International Performance
Dymatize delivered above-expectation growth driven by international markets (management cited strong international performance and raised near-term expectations for Dymatize sales).
Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation
Net leverage ended the quarter at 2.5x. The company repurchased $97 million of shares in Q1, signaling continued cash return to shareholders.
Advertising and Merchandising Investments
Launched the 'Go Get Them' omnichannel campaign in late December (expected to run across TV, streaming, podcasts, social and retail media) and increased merchandising efforts (partnership with a major mass retailer). Singles sales more than doubled in January, and improved store activations delivered strong share increases in feature and display.
Innovation Pipeline and New Product Launches
Multiple innovations underway: Coffee House RTD line (caffeine +30g protein) launched with early double-digit consumption growth, new indulgence LTOs (e.g., winter mint chocolate), strawberry powder launched, and two new shake lines scheduled for H2 (including a higher-protein product and a distinct new drinking experience).
Negative Updates
Premier Quarterly Consumption Decline
Premier RTD shake consumption was down 2% in Q1 (lapping +23% in FY25) and Premier net sales were down 1% for the quarter. Consumption performance was slightly below prior outlook due to delays in mass retailer promo activation and higher-than-expected promotional activity from insurgent brands.
Significant Input Cost Pressure and Margin Compression
Excluding mark-to-market commodity hedge adjustments, adjusted gross margin declined ~730 basis points in the quarter due to mid-single-digit input cost inflation, unfavorable mix and lapping a $5 million nonrecurring favorability from prior year. Management expects continued whey protein inflation for the remainder of the year.
Tariffs and Mix Shift Impacting Profitability
New tariff costs were introduced; tariffs are expected to unfavorably impact full-year gross margins by ~80 basis points. At the midpoint, guidance embeds a ~300 basis point year-over-year EBITDA margin headwind from a mix shift toward lower-margin products.
Near-Term Profitability Pressure in Q2
Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be approximately 13% due to commodity inflation, tariffs, higher planned advertising investment, and the timing shift of sales into Q1. First-half adjusted EBITDA margin is expected at ~15% with material sequential improvement in H2.
Promotional Intensity from Insurgent Brands
Management cited higher-than-expected frequency of promotional events from insurgent/crossover brands (notably in club and some mass), which pressured Premier consumption and led to modeling in a modest promotional headwind (low single digits) for the balance of the year.
Channel-Specific Headwinds—Club Performance
Club remains the toughest comparison and a source of weakness in Q1; Premier experienced softer club consumption relative to other channels and the company lapped a very strong prior-year club performance period.
Leadership Transition Creates Near-Term Uncertainty
CEO announced retirement effective on or before the end of the fiscal year with a national external search underway and the current CEO remaining in an advisory role following appointment of successor. Management described the transition as planned, but leadership changes can introduce execution risk.
Company Guidance
The company narrowed fiscal 2026 net sales guidance to $2.41–$2.46 billion (up 4–6%) and raised adjusted EBITDA guidance to $425–$440 million (about an 18% margin), reflecting updated consumption assumptions and higher whey and tariff costs; Q1 net sales were $537 million (+1%) with adjusted EBITDA of $90 million (16.8% margin), gross profit $161 million (29.9% gross margin) and adjusted gross margin down ~730 bps ex-hedges. Management expects Q2 net sales growth of ~3–4% with a Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin of ~13%, H1 adjusted EBITDA margin of ~15% and significant sequential margin improvement in H2; Premier net sales were down 1% (Premier RTD consumption -2% in Q1, January consumption +6% all channels / +16% ex-club), Dymatize sales outperformed (up double digits internationally), tariffs are expected to drag ~80 bps of gross margin, mix pressure of ~300 bps is embedded at the midpoint, advertising run-rate ~4% of sales, net leverage was 2.5x and the company repurchased $97 million of stock in Q1.

BellRing Brands Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Income statement and cash flow are solid (revenue growth and strong free cash flow), but the balance sheet is a major weakness due to negative stockholders’ equity and high leverage risk, which materially drags overall financial quality.
Income Statement
75
Positive
BellRing Brands shows a consistent revenue growth trend, with a 4.15% increase in the latest year. Gross profit margin remains stable around 33%, while net profit margin has slightly decreased to 9.33%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating operational efficiency. However, the slight decline in profitability margins suggests potential cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The company has a negative stockholders' equity, resulting in a high debt-to-equity ratio of -2.39, indicating financial instability. Return on equity is negative, reflecting losses relative to equity. The equity ratio is also negative, highlighting a reliance on debt financing, which poses a risk in terms of financial leverage.
Cash Flow
85
Very Positive
BellRing Brands exhibits strong cash flow performance with a significant free cash flow growth rate of 105.68%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust at 0.92, and free cash flow covers net income entirely, indicating efficient cash generation and management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.32B2.32B2.00B1.67B1.37B1.25B
Gross Profit770.40M770.40M707.30M530.20M421.80M386.20M
EBITDA362.20M376.00M424.20M315.60M216.10M220.10M
Net Income216.20M216.20M246.50M165.50M82.30M27.60M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets941.00M941.00M837.00M691.60M707.20M696.50M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments89.10M89.10M71.10M48.40M35.80M152.60M
Total Debt1.11B1.11B839.60M865.00M938.00M608.40M
Total Liabilities1.39B1.39B1.04B1.02B1.08B762.00M
Stockholders Equity-453.90M-453.90M-205.90M-323.50M-376.20M-3.06B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow255.90M255.90M197.80M213.80M19.20M224.50M
Operating Cash Flow260.60M260.60M199.60M215.60M21.00M226.10M
Investing Cash Flow-4.70M-4.70M-1.80M-1.80M-1.80M-1.60M
Financing Cash Flow-238.30M-238.30M-175.10M-201.70M-135.00M-120.90M

BellRing Brands Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price24.39
Price Trends
50DMA
27.90
Negative
100DMA
30.46
Negative
200DMA
43.38
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-1.02
Positive
RSI
30.65
Neutral
STOCH
9.03
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BRBR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.82, below the 50-day MA of 27.90, and below the 200-day MA of 43.38, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BRBR.

BellRing Brands Risk Analysis

BellRing Brands disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BellRing Brands reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Increasing scrutiny and evolving expectations and in some cases conflicting expectations from customers, suppliers, regulators, investors, and other stakeholders with respect to our environmental, social and governance ("ESG") practices may impose additional costs on us or expose us to new or additional risks. Q3, 2025

BellRing Brands Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$4.78B26.6117.25%2.35%3.16%6.47%
69
Neutral
$2.38B12.3013.73%9.15%0.26%-19.45%
64
Neutral
$5.23B18.698.56%2.97%-2.68%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
62
Neutral
$1.68B19.035.17%8.98%-26.29%
58
Neutral
$2.89B14.3416.05%-10.17%
52
Neutral
$8.79B-92.86-1.16%7.87%-5.82%-119.70%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BRBR
BellRing Brands
20.88
-54.04
-72.13%
CAG
Conagra Brands
19.11
-4.17
-17.91%
FLO
Flowers Foods
11.21
-6.88
-38.03%
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
17.08
-19.92
-53.84%
MZTI
Marzetti Company
160.54
-16.50
-9.32%
POST
Post Holdings
102.49
-2.08
-1.99%

BellRing Brands Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
BellRing Brands CEO retirement and Q1 2026 results
Negative
Feb 3, 2026

On February 2, 2026, BellRing Brands President and CEO Darcy H. Davenport notified the board of her intention to retire, effective upon the appointment of a successor or by September 30, 2026, with the company stating her departure is not related to any disagreement over operations, policies or practices, signaling an orderly leadership transition at the protein-focused nutrition company. Also on February 3, 2026, BellRing reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results for the period ended December 31, 2025, with net sales edging up 0.8% year over year to $537.3 million and net earnings falling to $43.7 million as margins were pressured by significant input cost inflation and unfavorable mix, even as Dymatize posted strong growth and the company repurchased about 2.5% of its shares; management narrowed its full-year 2026 outlook for net sales and Adjusted EBITDA, reflecting heavier promotions and higher whey costs but still projecting mid-single-digit sales growth and second-half acceleration driven by merchandising, advertising and innovation initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRBR) stock is a Hold with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BellRing Brands stock, see the BRBR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
BellRing Brands Shareholders Back Board and Governance Plans
Positive
Feb 2, 2026

On January 28, 2026, BellRing Brands, Inc. held its annual meeting of stockholders virtually via live audio-only webcast, with 84.74% of outstanding shares represented, and stockholders elected all director nominees to serve until the 2027 annual meeting or until their successors are duly chosen. Investors also ratified the appointment of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the company’s independent auditor for fiscal 2026 and approved the company’s executive compensation program, signaling broad shareholder support for the current board, governance structure and financial oversight, which may reinforce management’s strategic flexibility and stability for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRBR) stock is a Buy with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BellRing Brands stock, see the BRBR Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
BellRing Brands Announces $600M Share Repurchase Plan
Positive
Nov 20, 2025

On November 19, 2025, BellRing Brands, Inc. announced the approval of a new $600 million share repurchase authorization, effective immediately, while canceling its previous $400 million authorization. The new authorization, which spans two years, allows for flexible repurchase methods and does not obligate the company to buy a specific amount of shares. The decision reflects BellRing’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its market positioning and shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRBR) stock is a Hold with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BellRing Brands stock, see the BRBR Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
BellRing Brands Expands Board with New Appointment
Positive
Nov 14, 2025

On November 12, 2025, BellRing Brands announced the expansion of its Board of Directors from seven to eight members, effective January 1, 2026, with the appointment of David I. Finkelstein. Finkelstein, a seasoned executive with extensive experience in finance and mergers and acquisitions, will also join the Audit Committee. His appointment is expected to enhance the company’s financial oversight and strategic capabilities, potentially strengthening its position in the convenient nutrition industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (BRBR) stock is a Buy with a $37.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BellRing Brands stock, see the BRBR Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 03, 2026