JM Smucker (SJM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.48B
• Dividend Yield: 4.01%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.68M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.20
• Revenue Growth: 6.69%
• EPS Growth: -261.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 56
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 2.31
• Shares Outstanding: 106,683,680
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,860,240
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,680,423
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.88
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.03
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.55
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.84
• 1Y Price Target: $112.67
• Price Target Upside: 3.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $109.00 ▲(0.09%Upside)

The overall score reflects the significant financial challenges faced by J.M. Smucker, notably in profitability and valuation. While there are positive technical signals and some growth in key brands, these are overshadowed by substantial operational challenges and a negative earnings outlook. The company's high dividend yield offers some investor appeal, but the negative P/E ratio and mixed earnings call sentiment suggest caution.

Positive Factors

Financial Strategy

Partly offsetting these factors are growth in key brands, such as Uncrustables, productivity benefits, run-rate synergies of $100 million, and ongoing debt paydown and interest expense reduction.

Growth Potential

SJM anticipates mid-single-digit organic growth in future periods, ahead of many peers.

Valuation and Market Perception

The market is seen as under-appreciating SJM's relatively advantaged organic growth potential, leading to the stock trading at a discount.

Negative Factors

Earnings Outlook

Estimates for FY26 earnings per share have been lowered, reflecting a less optimistic outlook.

Financial Performance

Management provided initial fiscal 2026 EPS guidance that was below consensus expectations.

Impairment and Profitability

SJM recognized a $980mm impairment related to its SBS business and Hostess brand.

JM Smucker Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in three segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods, U.S. Retail Coffee, and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods. The company offers mainstream roast, ground, single serve, and premium coffee; peanut butter and specialty spreads; fruit spreads, shortening and oils, and frozen sandwiches and snacks; pet food and pet snacks; and foodservice hot beverage, foodservice portion control, and flour products, as well as dog and cat food, frozen handheld products, juices and beverages, and baking mixes and ingredients. It provides its products under the Meow Mix, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bits, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Rachael Ray Nutrish and Nature's Recipe, Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', Folgers, Café Bustelo, 1850, Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Robin Hood, and Five Roses. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, natural foods stores and distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, and mass merchandisers. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

JM Smucker makes money through the sale of its wide array of consumer food and beverage products. The company's revenue model is primarily based on its diverse brand portfolio, with key revenue streams coming from categories such as coffee, consumer foods, pet foods, and snacks. Coffee brands like Folgers contribute significantly to JM Smucker's earnings, alongside its peanut butter and fruit spreads. The pet food and snacks division, featuring brands like Milk-Bone and Meow Mix, also represents a substantial part of the company's revenue. JM Smucker's earnings are bolstered through strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors, enabling widespread product availability across various channels, including grocery stores, e-commerce platforms, and foodservice providers. Additionally, the company continuously invests in marketing, innovation, and product development to maintain brand loyalty and expand its market share.

JM Smucker Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The financial performance of JM Smucker is challenged by operational issues, reflected in a net loss and declining profit margins. The balance sheet is stable but faces leverage risks, while cash flow generation is steady yet threatened by profitability issues.

Income Statement

The company's income statement shows a concerning trend with a significant net loss in the most recent year, driven by a negative EBIT and EBITDA, indicating operational challenges. The gross profit margin has declined from previous levels, reflecting increased cost pressures or pricing challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with recent declines suggesting market share loss or demand issues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting a balanced yet cautious approach to leveraging. Despite a drop in stockholders' equity, the equity ratio remains solid, indicating asset management prudence. However, the recent increase in total debt signals potential leverage risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis highlights stable operating cash flow, demonstrating consistent cash generation capacity. However, free cash flow growth is uneven, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to net losses. The company must focus on improving net profitability to enhance cash flow resilience.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.73B	8.18B	8.53B	8.00B	8.00B
Gross Profit	3.38B	3.12B	2.80B	2.70B	3.14B
EBITDA	-155.60M	1.69B	573.80M	1.46B	1.80B
Net Income	-1.23B	744.00M	-91.30M	631.70M	876.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	17.56B	20.27B	14.99B	16.05B	16.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	69.90M	62.00M	1.14B	169.90M	334.30M
Total Debt	7.68B	8.55B	4.42B	4.61B	4.91B
Total Liabilities	11.48B	12.58B	7.70B	7.91B	8.16B
Stockholders Equity	6.08B	7.69B	7.29B	8.14B	8.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	816.60M	642.90M	717.00M	718.80M	1.26B
Operating Cash Flow	1.21B	1.23B	1.19B	1.14B	1.56B
Investing Cash Flow	-100.30M	-3.96B	262.60M	-355.50M	311.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.10B	2.14B	-964.60M	-944.50M	-1.94B

JM Smucker Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 108.90
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SJM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 108.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 100.84, above the 50-day MA of 105.90, and below the 200-day MA of 109.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.29 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SJM.

JM Smucker Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPC	75 Outperform	$10.44B	8.70	36.53%	―	2.35%	145.82%
KHC	74 Outperform	$32.64B	12.75	5.36%	5.80%	-4.25%	-4.04%
CAG	67 Neutral	$9.09B	7.90	13.27%	7.35%	-3.15%	-65.38%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$26.91B	15.42	-4.18%	3.21%	1.01%	1.34%
GIS	63 Neutral	$27.13B	12.20	24.57%	4.87%	-1.87%	-5.16%
CPB	61 Neutral	$9.07B	20.09	11.67%	5.04%	8.65%	-38.57%
SJM	53 Neutral	$11.48B	22.22	-17.87%	4.01%	6.69%	-261.87%

JM Smucker Corporate Events

JM Smucker Promotes John Brase to President and COO

On April 30, 2025, The J.M. Smucker Company announced the promotion of John Brase to President and Chief Operating Officer. Brase, who has been with the company since 2020, will continue to oversee various segments and expand his role to include external engagements. The company also awarded special equity awards to Brase and CFO Tucker Marshall to ensure business continuity. Additionally, the Board approved amendments to the company’s regulations, removing the requirement for the President to be a director and updating shareholder meeting procedures.