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JM Smucker (SJM)
NYSE:SJM

JM Smucker (SJM) AI Stock Analysis

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SJ

JM Smucker

(NYSE:SJM)

Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$93.00
▼(-3.27%Downside)
JM Smucker faces a challenging environment with significant operational issues leading to net losses, reflected in a negative P/E ratio. Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, further compounded by mixed guidance and substantial challenges in key segments. However, a strong dividend yield and some brand growth provide limited offsets.
Positive Factors
Brand Growth
Growth in key brands, such as Uncrustables, contributes positively to the company's financial outlook.
Debt Management
Ongoing debt paydown and interest expense reduction support positive financial momentum.
Valuation and Growth Potential
The market is seen as under-appreciating SJM's relatively advantaged organic growth potential, leading to the stock trading at a discount.
Negative Factors
Earnings Guidance
Management provided initial fiscal 2026 EPS guidance that was below consensus expectations.
Impairment Charges
SJM recognized a $980mm impairment related to its SBS business and Hostess brand.
Profitability
Full year Hostess sales/profits came in below its targets, impacting overall profitability.

JM Smucker (SJM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

JM Smucker Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe J.M. Smucker Company, commonly known as JM Smucker, is a prominent American manufacturer of food products, headquartered in Orrville, Ohio. The company primarily operates in the consumer goods sector, focusing on the production and distribution of a diverse portfolio of food and beverage products. Its core products include well-known brands such as Smucker's jams, jellies, and preserves, Jif peanut butter, Folgers coffee, and Milk-Bone pet snacks. JM Smucker serves a wide range of customers, including individual consumers, retail chains, and foodservice operators, both domestically and internationally.
How the Company Makes MoneyJM Smucker makes money through the sale of its wide array of consumer food and beverage products. The company's revenue model is primarily based on its diverse brand portfolio, with key revenue streams coming from categories such as coffee, consumer foods, pet foods, and snacks. Coffee brands like Folgers contribute significantly to JM Smucker's earnings, alongside its peanut butter and fruit spreads. The pet food and snacks division, featuring brands like Milk-Bone and Meow Mix, also represents a substantial part of the company's revenue. JM Smucker's earnings are bolstered through strategic partnerships with retailers and distributors, enabling widespread product availability across various channels, including grocery stores, e-commerce platforms, and foodservice providers. Additionally, the company continuously invests in marketing, innovation, and product development to maintain brand loyalty and expand its market share.

JM Smucker Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Product
Revenue by Product
Chart InsightsJ.M. Smucker's revenue trends reveal robust growth in the Coffee segment, driven by Café Bustelo's expansion, despite challenges from price elasticity. The Sweet Baked Snacks segment faces significant headwinds with a 14% decline in sales, exacerbated by high costs and impairment charges. Pet Foods also struggles with a 13% sales drop due to retailer inventory issues. However, strategic investments in key brands like Uncrustables and Café Bustelo are expected to support future growth, while cost-saving measures and debt reduction efforts aim to stabilize financial performance.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

JM Smucker Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 10, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: -14.05%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call highlighted significant innovations and growth in key brands like Uncrustables and Café Bustelo, alongside strong free cash flow and debt reduction efforts. However, these positives were overshadowed by substantial challenges in the Sweet Baked Snacks segment, large impairment charges, and struggles within the Pet Foods segment, indicating a mixed but leaning negative performance overall.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Innovation Sales
Innovation brought over $100 million in net sales from new products in their first year of launch, marking one of the most successful years of innovation in recent history.
Uncrustables Brand Growth
Uncrustables achieved its 11th consecutive fiscal year of double-digit growth, with net sales increasing by over $125 million to approximately $920 million.
Café Bustelo Brand Expansion
Café Bustelo grew net sales by 19% in the U.S. Retail Coffee portfolio, ending fiscal 2025 with approximately $400 million in net sales.
Transformation Office Success
The Transformation Office delivered cost and productivity benefits, with synergies from the Hostess acquisition reaching approximately $75 million, exceeding expectations.
Free Cash Flow Increase
Full year free cash flow was $817 million, an increase of $174 million compared to the previous year.
Debt Reduction and Dividend Growth
Approximately $455 million returned to shareholders through dividends, with a 2% increase in the quarterly dividend, marking 23 consecutive fiscal years of growth. The company plans to pay down $500 million of debt annually over the next two years.
Negative Updates
Sweet Baked Snacks Segment Underperformance
Sweet Baked Snacks segment net sales decreased 14%, driven by elevated trade recognition and a 72% decrease in segment profit due to higher costs and lower net price realization.
Impairment Charges
A $867 million impairment charge related to the goodwill of the Sweet Baked Snacks reporting unit and a $113 million impairment charge related to the Hostess brand indefinite-lived trademark were recognized.
Pet Foods Segment Decline
Pet Foods net sales decreased 13%, reflecting unexpected retailer inventory headwinds and a reduction in contract manufacturing sales.
Challenges with Pricing and Costs
Higher costs led to a decrease in adjusted gross profit by $84 million or 9%, with challenges in recovering increased commodity costs, particularly in the U.S. Retail Coffee segment.
Company Guidance
During the J.M. Smucker Company's fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter earnings call, guidance for fiscal year 2026 was provided with an emphasis on key metrics and strategic priorities. The company expects net sales to increase by 2% to 4%, with a comparable net sales growth of 4.5% at the midpoint. Key growth platforms, such as Uncrustables, Café Bustelo, Meow Mix, and Milk-Bone brands, are anticipated to experience volume/mix growth, although overall company volume/mix is expected to decline due to price elasticity of demand in the coffee segment and challenges in the Sweet Baked Snacks segment. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to range from $8.50 to $9.50, with anticipated headwinds from coffee elasticity, increased marketing investments, tariffs, and challenges in the Sweet Baked Snacks segment. The company also plans to generate approximately $875 million in free cash flow, with capital expenditures of $325 million. Cost and productivity savings, along with synergies from the Hostess acquisition, are expected to benefit the business, while a continued focus on debt reduction is projected to lower the leverage ratio to at or below 3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA by fiscal year 2027.

JM Smucker Financial Statement Overview

Summary
The financial performance of JM Smucker is challenged by operational issues, reflected in a net loss and declining profit margins. The balance sheet is stable but faces leverage risks, while cash flow generation is steady yet threatened by profitability issues.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The company's income statement shows a concerning trend with a significant net loss in the most recent year, driven by a negative EBIT and EBITDA, indicating operational challenges. The gross profit margin has declined from previous levels, reflecting increased cost pressures or pricing challenges. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with recent declines suggesting market share loss or demand issues.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, suggesting a balanced yet cautious approach to leveraging. Despite a drop in stockholders' equity, the equity ratio remains solid, indicating asset management prudence. However, the recent increase in total debt signals potential leverage risks if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis highlights stable operating cash flow, demonstrating consistent cash generation capacity. However, free cash flow growth is uneven, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to net losses. The company must focus on improving net profitability to enhance cash flow resilience.
BreakdownJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue8.73B8.18B8.53B8.00B8.00B
Gross Profit3.38B3.12B2.80B2.70B3.14B
EBITDA-673.90M1.69B573.80M1.46B1.80B
Net Income-1.23B744.00M-91.30M631.70M876.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets17.56B20.27B14.99B16.05B16.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments69.90M62.00M1.14B169.90M334.30M
Total Debt7.68B8.55B4.42B4.61B4.91B
Total Liabilities11.48B12.58B7.70B7.91B8.16B
Stockholders Equity6.08B7.69B7.29B8.14B8.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow816.60M642.90M717.00M718.80M1.26B
Operating Cash Flow1.21B1.23B1.19B1.14B1.56B
Investing Cash Flow-100.30M-3.96B262.60M-355.50M311.10M
Financing Cash Flow-1.10B2.14B-964.60M-944.50M-1.94B

JM Smucker Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price96.14
Price Trends
50DMA
108.83
Negative
100DMA
109.15
Negative
200DMA
110.04
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-4.20
Positive
RSI
32.83
Neutral
STOCH
57.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SJM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 96.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 102.39, below the 50-day MA of 108.83, and below the 200-day MA of 110.04, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -4.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SJM.

JM Smucker Risk Analysis

JM Smucker disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JM Smucker reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JM Smucker Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
PPPPC
80
Outperform
$10.65B8.7836.53%2.35%145.82%
KHKHC
68
Neutral
$30.45B11.665.36%6.22%-4.25%-4.04%
CACAG
67
Neutral
$9.76B31.403.67%6.84%-3.15%-65.38%
CPCPB
65
Neutral
$9.30B20.6011.67%5.00%8.65%-38.57%
65
Neutral
$26.82B14.80-4.06%3.24%1.02%2.12%
GIGIS
63
Neutral
$27.75B13.0324.57%4.74%-1.87%-5.16%
SJSJM
47
Neutral
$10.19B22.22-17.87%4.51%6.69%-261.87%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SJM
JM Smucker
96.14
-8.37
-8.01%
CPB
Campbell Soup
30.96
-12.50
-28.76%
CAG
Conagra Brands
20.50
-6.41
-23.82%
GIS
General Mills
50.37
-10.95
-17.86%
PPC
Pilgrim's Pride
44.55
10.62
31.30%
KHC
Kraft Heinz
25.79
-4.85
-15.83%

JM Smucker Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
JM Smucker Promotes John Brase to President and COO
Neutral
Apr 30, 2025

On April 30, 2025, The J.M. Smucker Company announced the promotion of John Brase to President and Chief Operating Officer. Brase, who has been with the company since 2020, will continue to oversee various segments and expand his role to include external engagements. The company also awarded special equity awards to Brase and CFO Tucker Marshall to ensure business continuity. Additionally, the Board approved amendments to the company’s regulations, removing the requirement for the President to be a director and updating shareholder meeting procedures.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 18, 2025