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JM Smucker (SJM)
NYSE:SJM
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JM Smucker
(NYSE:SJM)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$108.00
â–¼(-0.13% Downside)
J.M. Smucker's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, with declining revenues and profitability. Technical analysis shows a lack of strong momentum, and valuation is pressured by negative earnings. However, the attractive dividend yield provides some support. The company needs to address its financial and operational issues to improve its outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong Free Cash Flow Outlook
An improved free cash flow outlook indicates better cash generation, which can support debt reduction and future investments, enhancing financial stability.
Positive Performance in Coffee Segment
Strong performance in the coffee segment, driven by effective pricing strategies, suggests a robust market position and potential for sustained revenue growth.
Positive Trends in Uncrustables and Pet Segment
Momentum in key brands like Uncrustables and the pet segment indicates strong consumer demand and potential for long-term growth in these categories.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue Growth
Declining revenue growth and negative net income highlight operational challenges, which could hinder long-term profitability and market competitiveness.
Rising Leverage
Increased leverage can strain financial flexibility and elevate risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Operational Inefficiencies
Negative margins indicate operational inefficiencies, which can undermine profitability and necessitate strategic adjustments to improve cost management.
JM Smucker (SJM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.42B
Dividend Yield4.05%
Average Volume (3M)2.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.2
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth2.54%
EPS Growth-293.39%
CountryUS
Employees9,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.90
Shares Outstanding106,685,160
10 Day Avg. Volume2,019,871
30 Day Avg. Volume2,452,497
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)2.03
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio15.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-43.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$118.50Price Target Upside9.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
JM Smucker Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionThe J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in three segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods, U.S. Retail Coffee, and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods. The company offers mainstream roast, ground, single serve, and premium coffee; peanut butter and specialty spreads; fruit spreads, shortening and oils, and frozen sandwiches and snacks; pet food and pet snacks; and foodservice hot beverage, foodservice portion control, and flour products, as well as dog and cat food, frozen handheld products, juices and beverages, and baking mixes and ingredients. It provides its products under the Meow Mix, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bits, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Rachael Ray Nutrish and Nature's Recipe, Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', Folgers, Café Bustelo, 1850, Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Robin Hood, and Five Roses. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, natural foods stores and distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, and mass merchandisers. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.
How the Company Makes MoneyJM Smucker generates revenue primarily through the sale of its branded products in several key categories. The company's major revenue streams include the sale of coffee, with Folgers and Dunkin' being significant contributors, and the sale of spreads, where Smucker's and Jif are leading brands. Additionally, JM Smucker has a growing pet food segment, which includes brands like Meow Mix and Kibble 'n Bits. The company benefits from strong distribution networks and partnerships with major retailers, enhancing its market reach. Seasonal promotions, brand loyalty programs, and strategic marketing initiatives also play a crucial role in driving sales and customer engagement, thereby contributing to its overall earnings.
JM Smucker Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product
Details revenue generated from individual products, offering insight into consumer preferences and product performance within the market.
Details revenue generated from individual products, offering insight into consumer preferences and product performance within the market.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataJM Smucker Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2025
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 02, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. While there are positive developments in the coffee segment, free cash flow, and specific brands like Uncrustables and Milk Bone, challenges such as increased tariffs, soft first-quarter earnings, and volume declines in sweet baked snacks balance out the positives.Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Positive Performance in Coffee Segment
The coffee segment is expected to see pricing in the mid-20% range, with overall growth in the low to mid-teens year-over-year. The company experienced a $50 million over-delivery in coffee expectations in Q1 due to better-than-expected price elasticity.
Strong Free Cash Flow Outlook
The free cash flow outlook was increased from $875 million to $975 million for the fiscal year, driven by benefits from the Beautiful Bill Act, which will be an ongoing benefit in future fiscal years.
Positive Trends in Uncrustables and Pet Segment
The Uncrustables brand continues to show momentum, and the pet segment, particularly cat food, also shows ongoing momentum.
Milk Bone Brand Support and Growth
Milk Bone is expected to return to growth in the second half of the fiscal year, supported by advertising, innovation, and tactical pricing strategies.
Negative Updates
Impact of Increased Tariffs on Coffee
The company is experiencing increased tariffs on green coffee, leading to a net 25¢ headwind, which offsets the 20¢ benefit from favorable price elasticity.
Soft First Quarter Earnings
The first quarter was the softest, with additional coffee costs higher than anticipated. The second quarter is also expected to see further coffee cost impacts due to timing and hedging activities.
Volume Decline in Sweet Baked Snacks
There was a volume decline in the sweet baked snacks segment, although SKU rationalization is expected to improve profitability over time.
Company Guidance
During the J. M. Smucker Company's Fiscal 2026 First Quarter Earnings Call, several key metrics and guidance updates were discussed. The company has updated its outlook for the coffee segment, now expecting pricing benefits in the mid-20% range due to additional pricing actions responding to increased tariff rates on green coffee. Volume is anticipated to be impacted in the low to mid-teens, leading to overall segment growth in the low to mid-teens year-over-year. Despite these headwinds, the full-year guidance remains at a $9 midpoint, with expected favorability from better-than-anticipated price elasticity partially offset by increased tariffs. Additionally, the fiscal year free cash flow outlook has increased from $875 million to $975 million due to benefits from the new "One Big Beautiful Bill" act, which is expected to support ongoing debt reduction efforts. The company also highlighted sequential improvement in the Sweet Baked Snacks segment's profitability as SKU rationalization and cost-saving measures are implemented, with expected savings of $30 million impacting the current and next fiscal years.JM Smucker Financial Statement Overview
Summary
JM Smucker is facing financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability. The income statement shows negative net income and operational inefficiencies. The balance sheet reflects high leverage, and cash flow is under pressure despite positive operating cash flow.Income Statement
The income statement shows significant challenges with negative net income and declining revenue growth in the TTM period. Gross profit margin has decreased from previous periods, and both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational inefficiencies. The company is facing a downturn in profitability, which is a concern for future growth.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, which has increased over time, indicating rising leverage. Return on equity is negative, highlighting profitability issues. However, the equity ratio remains stable, suggesting some level of balance sheet strength despite the challenges.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth, although the company maintains a positive operating cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is relatively strong, indicating that the company is generating cash despite net losses. However, the overall cash flow position is under pressure due to declining profitability.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.71B | 8.73B | 8.18B | 8.53B | 8.00B | 8.00B |
| Gross Profit | 3.06B | 3.38B | 3.12B | 2.80B | 2.70B | 3.14B |
| EBITDA | -452.10M | -155.60M | 1.69B | 573.80M | 1.46B | 1.80B |
| Net Income | -1.46B | -1.23B | 744.00M | -91.30M | 631.70M | 876.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.74B | 17.56B | 20.27B | 14.99B | 16.05B | 16.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.30M | 69.90M | 62.00M | 1.14B | 169.90M | 334.30M |
| Total Debt | 8.08B | 7.76B | 8.55B | 4.42B | 4.61B | 4.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.82B | 11.48B | 12.58B | 7.70B | 7.91B | 8.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.93B | 6.08B | 7.69B | 7.29B | 8.14B | 8.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 672.50M | 816.60M | 642.90M | 717.00M | 718.80M | 1.26B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 1.21B | 1.23B | 1.19B | 1.14B | 1.56B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -125.80M | -100.30M | -3.96B | 262.60M | -355.50M | 311.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -901.70M | -1.10B | 2.14B | -964.60M | -944.50M | -1.94B |
JM Smucker Technical Analysis
Positive
108.14
Price Trends
109.24
Negative
106.81
Positive
107.29
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.28
Negative
49.33
Neutral
29.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SJM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 108.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 107.77, below the 50-day MA of 109.24, and above the 200-day MA of 107.29, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SJM.
JM Smucker Risk Analysis
JM Smucker disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JM Smucker reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
JM Smucker Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $26.86B | 9.53 | 30.98% | 4.73% | -3.26% | 25.58% | |
69 Neutral | $18.33B | 23.93 | 13.92% | 2.70% | 1.64% | -1.83% | |
67 Neutral | $9.32B | 15.59 | 15.64% | 5.01% | 6.40% | 6.17% | |
64 Neutral | $8.95B | 10.78 | 9.65% | 7.48% | -4.11% | 72.17% | |
63 Neutral | $13.37B | 17.72 | 9.46% | 4.80% | 0.65% | -3.76% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
50 Neutral | $11.42B | 22.22 | -21.32% | 4.05% | 2.54% | -293.39% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
SJM
JM Smucker
108.14
-4.51
-4.00%
CPB
Campbell Soup
31.11
-14.35
-31.57%
CAG
Conagra Brands
18.91
-8.74
-31.61%
GIS
General Mills
50.93
-18.27
-26.40%
HRL
Hormel Foods
24.00
-5.83
-19.54%
MKC
McCormick & Company
65.62
-12.69
-16.20%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.