JM Smucker (SJM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.37B
• Dividend Yield: 4.45%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.15M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.15
• Revenue Growth: -0.66%
• EPS Growth: -326.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 9,000
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Packaged Foods
• EPS (TTM): 2.38
• Shares Outstanding: 106,648,315
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,413,839
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,149,955
• PEG Ratio: 0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.42
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.15
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 22.47
• 1Y Price Target: $133.75
• Price Target Upside: 15.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.03
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $9.05B

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $122.00 ▲(5.22% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

SJM’s score is held back primarily by the sharp swing to large TTM losses and higher leverage, despite solid and improving free cash flow. Technicals are supportive (price above key moving averages with positive MACD), and the dividend yield adds appeal, but valuation remains constrained by negative earnings. The latest earnings call was mixed—maintained guidance and strength in coffee/Uncrustables are positives, while Sweet Baked Snacks disruption and outlook reset remain the key overhang.

Positive Factors

Free Cash Flow Strength

Even while reported earnings swung negative, Smucker generates durable free cash flow (~$971M TTM). That persistent cash conversion supports debt service, targeted reinvestment, and operational fixes, giving the company flexibility to stabilize margins and pursue capital allocation once profits recover.

Coffee Segment Margin Recovery

Management expects mid-20s% coffee segment margins as input cost deflation and hedging benefit profits. Coffee is a large, resilient category with strong brands (Folgers, Dunkin'), so sustainable margin improvement in this core business materially aids enterprise profitability and cash generation over the medium term.

Governance & Leadership Reorganization

Engagement with an activist investor and board enhancements signal stronger financial oversight and disciplined capital allocation. The executive reorg and planned CTO hire aim to modernize operations and sharpen accountability, which can improve execution and strategic focus over the coming years.

Negative Factors

Large TTM Net Losses

A substantial TTM net loss and negative operating income materially depress returns and limit retained earnings. Persistent or recurring operating losses would constrain reinvestment, raise restructuring risk, and reduce management's freedom to invest in growth or reinstate shareholder-friendly actions until profitability normalizes.

Higher Leverage vs. History

Leverage has increased meaningfully versus prior years and equity has declined, reducing financial flexibility. Elevated debt levels raise interest expense sensitivity and constrain capital allocation choices; management will need sustained cash generation and/or asset actions to restore balance-sheet optionality.

Sweet Baked Snacks Execution & Amortization

A lowered long-term growth assumption for Hostess, elevated bakery costs, a plant disruption and recurring trademark amortization (~$210M) represent a structural headwind. These factors reduce segment profitability and add recurring non-cash charges that will weigh on consolidated margins and earnings durability.

JM Smucker Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in three segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods, U.S. Retail Coffee, and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods. The company offers mainstream roast, ground, single serve, and premium coffee; peanut butter and specialty spreads; fruit spreads, shortening and oils, and frozen sandwiches and snacks; pet food and pet snacks; and foodservice hot beverage, foodservice portion control, and flour products, as well as dog and cat food, frozen handheld products, juices and beverages, and baking mixes and ingredients. It provides its products under the Meow Mix, 9Lives, Kibbles 'n Bits, Milk-Bone, Pup-Peroni, Rachael Ray Nutrish and Nature's Recipe, Folgers, Café Bustelo, Dunkin', Folgers, Café Bustelo, 1850, Jif, Smucker's, Smucker's Uncrustables, Robin Hood, and Five Roses. The company sells its products through direct sales and brokers to food retailers, club stores, discount and dollar stores, online retailers, pet specialty stores, natural foods stores and distributors, drug stores, military commissaries, and mass merchandisers. Smucker Company was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Orrville, Ohio.

How the Company Makes Money

JM Smucker generates revenue through the sale of its diverse product offerings across several key segments. The U.S. Retail Coffee segment is a significant contributor, with brands like Folgers and Dunkin' driving sales through both retail channels and direct-to-consumer platforms. The U.S. Retail Consumer Foods segment, which includes products like jams, jellies, and peanut butter, also represents a substantial revenue stream. Additionally, the company's Pet Foods segment, featuring brands such as Meow Mix and Rachael Ray Nutrish, has seen growth due to increasing consumer spending on pet care. JM Smucker's revenue model is further bolstered by strategic partnerships with retailers, effective marketing campaigns, and a focus on innovation and product development. Seasonal promotions and new product introductions also play a critical role in driving sales, while the company's international operations provide additional revenue opportunities in global markets.

JM Smucker Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed. Cash flow is a clear strength (TTM operating cash flow ~$1.29B; free cash flow ~$971M), but the income statement has deteriorated sharply with large TTM net losses (~$1.26B) and negative operating income. The balance sheet is adequate but more levered (debt-to-equity ~1.40) and returns are pressured by losses, reducing flexibility until profitability stabilizes.

Income Statement

Results have deteriorated sharply: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up modestly (~2%), but profitability is deeply negative with net losses of about $1.26B and negative operating income. This follows a profitable 2021–2024 period (including solid margins in 2024), suggesting a major recent margin/charge-driven disruption rather than a slow drift. Strengths include resilient top-line scale and historically strong margins, but the current loss-making profile and negative operating leverage are the key near-term red flags.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is adequate but more levered than it used to be. Debt-to-equity has risen to ~1.40 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from ~0.57–0.61 in 2021–2023, while equity has declined versus 2024–2025 levels. Total assets have also come down from the 2024 peak, and returns on equity are materially negative in TTM due to losses. Positives include a sizable equity base (~$5.2B), but higher leverage and loss-driven erosion in returns reduce financial flexibility.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative bright spot. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is ~$1.29B and free cash flow is ~$971M, with strong free-cash-flow growth versus the prior annual period. Even with net losses, free cash flow remains positive (free cash flow is ~75% of net income in magnitude), supporting debt service and reinvestment. The main weakness is that operating cash flow covers only about ~55% of net income in magnitude, indicating earnings quality is currently distorted and cash flow is not fully tracking reported losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2025	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	8.93B	8.73B	8.18B	8.53B	8.00B	8.00B
Gross Profit	2.92B	3.38B	3.12B	2.80B	2.70B	3.14B
EBITDA	874.20M	-155.60M	1.69B	573.80M	1.46B	1.80B
Net Income	-1.26B	-1.23B	744.00M	-91.30M	631.70M	876.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.27B	17.56B	20.27B	14.99B	16.05B	16.28B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	52.80M	69.90M	62.00M	1.14B	169.90M	334.30M
Total Debt	7.45B	7.76B	8.55B	4.42B	4.61B	4.91B
Total Liabilities	11.03B	11.48B	12.58B	7.70B	7.91B	8.16B
Stockholders Equity	5.24B	6.08B	7.69B	7.29B	8.14B	8.12B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	971.20M	816.60M	642.90M	717.00M	718.80M	1.26B
Operating Cash Flow	1.29B	1.21B	1.23B	1.19B	1.14B	1.56B
Investing Cash Flow	-255.70M	-100.30M	-3.96B	262.60M	-355.50M	311.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-1.03B	-1.10B	2.14B	-964.60M	-944.50M	-1.94B

JM Smucker Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 115.95
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SJM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 115.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 108.72, above the 50-day MA of 103.10, and above the 200-day MA of 103.73, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.69 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SJM.

JM Smucker Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GIS	68 Neutral	$24.13B	9.77	27.29%	5.19%	-5.65%	0.41%
HRL	68 Neutral	$14.08B	28.81	6.13%	4.82%	1.55%	-40.81%
MKC	65 Neutral	$19.07B	24.24	14.32%	2.61%	1.64%	-1.83%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
SJM	61 Neutral	$12.37B	-9.84	-20.68%	4.45%	-0.66%	-326.55%
CPB	60 Neutral	$8.03B	13.94	14.82%	5.64%	2.71%	4.90%
CAG	58 Neutral	$9.21B	―	-1.16%	7.87%	-5.82%	-119.70%

JM Smucker Corporate Events

JM Smucker Expands Board, Adds Two New Directors

On February 24, 2026, The J. M. Smucker Company’s board of directors approved an expansion of the board from ten to eleven members and elected Woo-Sung (Bruce) Chung and David Singer as new directors, effective April 15, 2026, with both also joining the audit committee. At the same time, director Mercedes Abramo will move from the audit committee to the nominating, governance, and corporate responsibility committee, reflecting a rebalancing of board responsibilities.

Chung and Singer will receive standard non-employee director compensation, and Smucker will enter into director indemnification agreements with each, effective April 15, 2026, consistent with those provided to existing directors and officers. The company said there were no special arrangements underlying their election and no related-party transactions requiring disclosure, and it announced the board changes publicly in a press release dated February 26, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SJM) stock is a Hold with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JM Smucker stock, see the SJM Stock Forecast page.

J.M. Smucker Unveils Major Executive Leadership Reorganization

On February 10, 2026, The J.M. Smucker Co. announced a sweeping leadership reorganization, effective February 9, 2026, eliminating the chief operating officer role as President and COO John Brase exited executive leadership, while CEO and Chair Mark Smucker reassumed the president title. The shake-up consolidates strategic and operational oversight under a tighter senior team and is framed as supporting the company’s long‑term growth and profitability ambitions.

Chief Financial Officer Tucker Marshall was elevated to CFO | Executive Vice President, Frozen Handheld and Spreads and Sweet Baked Snacks, gaining responsibility for sales and strategic leadership of frozen handheld, spreads, sweet baked snacks, and international businesses. The move pairs his financial stewardship with direct P&L and commercial oversight in categories the company has identified as key growth and margin‑improvement engines.

Rob Ferguson was promoted from Senior Vice President and General Manager, Coffee and Procurement to Chief Product Supply Officer | Executive Vice President, Coffee, Pet, and Away From Home, taking charge of operations, distribution, supply chain, procurement, commodity hedging, quality, R&D, and productivity programs. His remit now includes strategic leadership of U.S. retail coffee, pet foods, and away‑from‑home, signaling a stronger alignment of supply chain, innovation, and category growth priorities.

Chief People and Company Services Officer Jill Penrose advanced to Chief People and Administrative Officer | Chief of Staff, adding corporate strategy and chief of staff duties to her existing communications, government relations, HR, community relations, and philanthropy responsibilities. The expanded role centralizes strategic planning and organizational culture under a single leader, reflecting the importance of coordinated change management during the restructuring.

Further changes, effective July 27, 2026, will shift Tim Wayne from Senior Vice President and General Manager, Away From Home and International to Senior Vice President and General Manager, Coffee and Away From Home, and move Robert Crane to Senior Vice President, Head of Sales and International from his current sales leadership role. Both will report into Ferguson and Marshall respectively, tightening reporting lines between category leadership, international expansion, and enterprise‑wide commercial strategy.

The company also disclosed planned retirements of Senior Vice President, Operations, Randy Day, and Senior Vice President, Information Services and Supply Chain, Bryan Hutson, who will stay on to support transitions. Smucker plans to recruit a Chief Technology Officer to drive information technology and artificial intelligence strategy, as well as new senior roles in operations, supply chain, and science and technical functions, underscoring a push to modernize its infrastructure and innovation capabilities while maintaining its fiscal 2026 outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (SJM) stock is a Hold with a $105.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on JM Smucker stock, see the SJM Stock Forecast page.