JM Smucker (SJM)
NYSE:SJM
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JM Smucker
(NYSE:SJM)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$94.00
â–²(1.94% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
SJM’s score is held back primarily by the sharp swing to large TTM losses and higher leverage, despite solid and improving free cash flow. Technicals are supportive (price above key moving averages with positive MACD), and the dividend yield adds appeal, but valuation remains constrained by negative earnings. The latest earnings call was mixed—maintained guidance and strength in coffee/Uncrustables are positives, while Sweet Baked Snacks disruption and outlook reset remain the key overhang.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Consistent, sizable free cash flow (~$971M TTM) provides durable capacity to service debt, fund productivity and innovation, and reinvest in growth. Positive FCF despite accounting losses supports near‑term liquidity and strategic options while management stabilizes operations.
Negative Factors
Material TTM Net Losses
Large trailing‑twelve‑month net losses and negative operating income materially impair returns and operating leverage. Until profitability normalizes, earnings volatility and impaired ROE limit sustainable dividend and capital allocation flexibility over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
Consistent, sizable free cash flow (~$971M TTM) provides durable capacity to service debt, fund productivity and innovation, and reinvest in growth. Positive FCF despite accounting losses supports near‑term liquidity and strategic options while management stabilizes operations.
Read all positive factors
JM Smucker (SJM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.55B
Dividend Yield4.45%
Average Volume (3M)1.90M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.17
Revenue Growth-0.66%
EPS Growth-326.55%
CountryUS
Employees9,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.38
Shares Outstanding106,648,315
10 Day Avg. Volume1,569,380
30 Day Avg. Volume1,900,933
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)2.03
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio15.15
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.91
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-109.95
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$122.93Price Target Upside33.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)9.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.05B
JM Smucker Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and markets branded food and beverage products worldwide. It operates in three segments: U.S. Retail Pet Foods, U.S. Retail Coffee, and U.S. Retail Consumer Foods. The company offers mainstream roast, ground,...
How the Company Makes Money
JM Smucker makes money primarily by selling branded packaged goods to customers such as mass retailers, grocery chains, club stores, e-commerce retailers, and foodservice distributors. Revenue is generated across its major operating segments: (1) ...
JM Smucker Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Product
Details revenue generated from individual products, offering insight into consumer preferences and product performance within the market.
Details revenue generated from individual products, offering insight into consumer preferences and product performance within the market.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyJM Smucker Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture. Strength in coffee, Uncrustables and pet (including solid innovation and distribution gains) and constructive engagement on governance and capital allocation were clear positives and supported confidence in the company’s strategy and the fiscal-year EPS midpoint. However, meaningful near-term headwinds in Sweet Baked Snacks — including sales declines, higher-than-expected bakery costs, a plant fire disruption, and a reset to lower long-term growth assumptions that triggered Hostess trademark amortization — are significant negatives that mute overall momentum. Management believes coffee and operational actions will drive margin recovery, but uncertainty remains around the timing and magnitude of recovery in Sweet Baked Snacks.Positive Updates
Constructive Engagement with Activist Investor and Board Strengthening
Recent engagement with Elliott described as very constructive; management and Elliott aligned on operating improvements, portfolio management, disciplined capital allocation and governance. Two recent Board additions (Bruce Chung and David Singer) expected to strengthen financial oversight and capital-allocation capabilities.
Negative Updates
Sweet Baked Snacks — Significant Top-Line Pressure
Sweet Baked Snacks faced notable weakness: fiscal Q4 exit rate described as a low double-digit decline (roughly ~10%+), with third-quarter top line below expectations driven by category headwinds and execution issues. Management characterized the portfolio as on a stabilization journey and lowered long-term growth expectations.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Constructive Engagement with Activist Investor and Board Strengthening
Recent engagement with Elliott described as very constructive; management and Elliott aligned on operating improvements, portfolio management, disciplined capital allocation and governance. Two recent Board additions (Bruce Chung and David Singer) expected to strengthen financial oversight and capital-allocation capabilities.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management kept full‑year EPS guidance intact and said they remain most confident in the $9 midpoint, with any upside likely driven by coffee; SG&A is now expected flat to slightly down (versus prior flat) and full‑year amortization is forecast at $210 million after beginning trademark amortization in Q4. They reiterated a path to 3.0x leverage or below by the end of next fiscal year (which would enable share repurchases), confirmed a $75 million unmitigated tariff headwind this year that will be lapped next year, and said coffee should see profit and margin improvement (expecting a mid‑20s percent segment profit margin in Q4) while elasticities improved in Q3. For Sweet Baked Snacks/Hostess they adopted a 2% long‑term growth assumption and warned Q4 will be softer due to category trends and a plant disruption (with profitability expected to begin recovering into Q4). Uncrustables remains a growth driver—total business up ~10%, retail up ~6%, ~3.5M new households added and approaching the $1 billion revenue target.JM Smucker Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 | Apr 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.93B | 8.73B | 8.18B | 8.53B | 8.00B | 8.00B |
| Gross Profit | 2.92B | 3.38B | 3.12B | 2.80B | 2.70B | 3.14B |
| EBITDA | -156.80M | -155.60M | 1.69B | 573.80M | 1.46B | 1.80B |
| Net Income | -1.26B | -1.23B | 744.00M | -91.30M | 631.70M | 876.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.27B | 17.56B | 20.27B | 14.99B | 16.05B | 16.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.80M | 69.90M | 62.00M | 1.14B | 169.90M | 334.30M |
| Total Debt | 7.45B | 7.76B | 8.55B | 4.42B | 4.61B | 4.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.03B | 11.48B | 12.58B | 7.70B | 7.91B | 8.16B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.24B | 6.08B | 7.69B | 7.29B | 8.14B | 8.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 971.20M | 816.60M | 642.90M | 717.00M | 718.80M | 1.26B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.29B | 1.21B | 1.23B | 1.19B | 1.14B | 1.56B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -255.70M | -100.30M | -3.96B | 262.60M | -355.50M | 311.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.03B | -1.10B | 2.14B | -964.60M | -944.50M | -1.94B |
JM Smucker Technical Analysis
Negative
92.21
Price Trends
103.85
Negative
101.98
Negative
103.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-3.61
Positive
32.47
Neutral
23.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SJM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 92.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 95.78, below the 50-day MA of 103.85, and below the 200-day MA of 103.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.61 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SJM.
JM Smucker Risk Analysis
JM Smucker disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JM Smucker reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
JM Smucker Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $11.27B | 18.81 | 6.13% | 4.82% | 1.55% | -40.81% | |
64 Neutral | $14.55B | 4.70 | 27.31% | 2.61% | 1.64% | -1.83% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $9.55B | -3.86 | -21.55% | 4.45% | -0.66% | -326.55% | |
60 Neutral | $18.44B | 20.26 | 23.70% | 5.19% | -5.65% | 0.41% | |
56 Neutral | $6.94B | 11.30 | -0.51% | 7.87% | -5.82% | -119.70% | |
54 Neutral | $6.01B | 14.14 | 13.98% | 5.64% | 2.71% | 4.90% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
SJM
JM Smucker
92.21
-18.18
-16.47%
CPB
Campbell Soup
20.00
-14.81
-42.54%
CAG
Conagra Brands
14.28
-8.88
-38.34%
GIS
General Mills
34.70
-18.74
-35.06%
HRL
Hormel Foods
20.76
-7.98
-27.78%
MKC
McCormick & Company
53.84
-18.25
-25.32%
JM Smucker Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
JM Smucker Finalizes Separation Agreement with Former COO
Neutral
Mar 3, 2026
The J. M. Smucker Company has finalized a separation agreement with former President and Chief Operating Officer John Brase, who ceased serving as an executive officer as previously reported on February 10, 2026. The agreement, effective February ...
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
JM Smucker Expands Board, Adds Two New Directors
Neutral
Feb 26, 2026
On February 24, 2026, The J. M. Smucker Company’s board of directors approved an expansion of the board from ten to eleven members and elected Woo-Sung (Bruce) Chung and David Singer as new directors, effective April 15, 2026, with both also...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
J.M. Smucker Unveils Major Executive Leadership Reorganization
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
On February 10, 2026, The J.M. Smucker Co. announced a sweeping leadership reorganization, effective February 9, 2026, eliminating the chief operating officer role as President and COO John Brase exited executive leadership, while CEO and Chair Ma...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.