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Kraft Heinz (KHC)
NASDAQ:KHC

Kraft Heinz (KHC) AI Stock Analysis

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Kraft Heinz

(NASDAQ:KHC)

Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
Kraft Heinz's overall stock score is 67.5, reflecting a stable but challenged financial position. The company has a strong balance sheet and cash flow, but faces revenue stagnation and increased costs. Technical indicators suggest a lack of momentum, while valuations remain attractive. The earnings call indicates strategic efforts to spur growth amid pressures, yet short-term challenges persist.
Positive Factors
Brand Investment
Increased media spending and a commitment to high-quality brand-building are seen as constructive for Kraft Heinz's business.
Strategic Transactions
Kraft Heinz's board is exploring strategic transactions to unlock shareholder value, potentially boosting the company's stock.
Negative Factors
Board Changes
The departure of two board members from its largest shareholder, Berkshire Hathaway, could lead to an adverse market reaction.
Market Share Loss
Kraft Heinz continues to lose share in several of its legacy U.S.-focused brands, impacting its competitive position.
Profit Guidance
Kraft Heinz management lowered profit guidance by about 5% due to higher inflation and consumer elasticity, affecting investor confidence.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kraft Heinz Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionThe Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is one of the largest food and beverage companies in the world, known for its iconic brands and diverse product offerings. Formed from the merger of Kraft Foods Group and H.J. Heinz Company in 2015, the company operates in the consumer packaged goods industry, producing a wide range of products including condiments, sauces, cheese and dairy, meals, meats, refreshment beverages, coffee, and other grocery products. Kraft Heinz markets its products under well-known brand names such as Heinz, Kraft, Oscar Mayer, Philadelphia, Velveeta, Planters, Maxwell House, and Capri Sun, among others. The company serves a global customer base across retail, foodservice, and e-commerce channels.
How the Company Makes MoneyKraft Heinz generates revenue primarily through the sale of its food and beverage products across various channels including retail, foodservice, and e-commerce. The company's revenue streams are largely driven by its extensive portfolio of well-established brands, which are sold in approximately 200 countries. Key revenue segments include condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy products, ready-to-eat meals, meats, and beverages. Kraft Heinz leverages strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its market reach and enhance its product offerings. The company also focuses on innovation and marketing to maintain brand loyalty and attract new customers. Additionally, Kraft Heinz benefits from economies of scale in production and distribution, which help optimize costs and improve profitability.

Kraft Heinz Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -8.10%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong cash flow and strategic investments in brand growth and emerging markets, but was balanced by significant challenges including revised guidance due to market pressures, expected declines in operating income, and increased costs from inflation and tariffs.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Cash Flow Performance
Despite growing market pressure, The Kraft Heinz Company delivered strong cash flow performance and maintained a healthy balance sheet in the first quarter of 2025.
Investments in Brand Growth System
The company is scaling up its brand growth system to 40% of its business by the end of the year, a significant increase from the 10% in 2024. This system aims to drive brand superiority and growth.
Emerging Markets Acceleration
The company expects further acceleration in emerging markets beyond the first quarter.
Innovations and Renovations
The company is focused on renovating products and improving product quality, such as in the Philadelphia cream cheese and Capri Sun lines, which are expected to drive growth.
Double-Digit Growth in Mexican Strategy
The Kraft Heinz Company saw double-digit growth in its Mexican strategy last year and continues to see similar growth this year.
Negative Updates
Revised Revenue Guidance and Market Tension
The company has adjusted its guidance due to market tension and a challenging macroeconomic environment, leading to a larger-than-expected cut in guidance.
Decline in Operating Income
Operating income is expected to decline double digits in the second quarter due to increased promotional activity, hedge losses, and commodity cost pressures.
COGS Inflation Impact
The company revised its COGS inflation outlook from 3% to 5%, with additional impacts expected from tariffs leading to potentially 50 to 200 bps increase in COGS.
Pressure on Gross Margins
Increased promotional activity, commodity costs, and hedge losses are expected to pressure gross margins in the second quarter.
Promotional Activity Still Below 2019 Levels
The Kraft Heinz Company's promotional activity volume is still below 2019 levels, contrasting with other large food companies.
Company Guidance
During the Kraft Heinz Company's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided revised guidance reflecting ongoing market challenges and strategic investments. The company highlighted its commitment to playing offense with discipline, prioritizing investments in marketing, R&D, and technology, with a focus on enhancing returns on marketing dollars and optimizing brand and media strategies. The guidance included a step-up in marketing expenses to approximately 4.8% of revenue, nearing the company's long-term target of 5%, and an anticipated inflation rate of 5% in COGS, influenced by rising costs in commodities like coffee and meat. Tariff impacts were estimated to add 50 to 200 basis points to COGS, primarily in the second half of the year. Despite these pressures, the company maintained its pricing outlook, indicating no further price investments beyond the previously planned 100 basis points. Furthermore, the company's operating income was expected to decline double digits in Q2, driven by increased promotional activity, hedge losses, and product renovations. The guidance was adjusted to provide flexibility amidst a dynamic policy landscape, allowing the company to continue investing in key growth initiatives.

Kraft Heinz Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kraft Heinz demonstrates a stable financial position with average operational efficiency and moderate profitability. The balance sheet is strong with low leverage and solid equity, while cash flows are well-managed despite recent declines in free cash flow growth. The company might need to focus on reigniting revenue growth to enhance future profitability and shareholder value.
Income Statement
67
Positive
Kraft Heinz shows moderate stability in its income statement. The TTM gross profit margin is approximately 34.5%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin of 10.4% is somewhat lower, reflecting potential challenges in converting revenue to profit. Revenue has shown a slight decline in recent years, indicating stagnation in growth. The EBIT margin is at 6.2%, and EBITDA margin stands at 9.5%, both suggesting average operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.42, indicating conservative leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is at 5.4%, hinting at moderate profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is 54.8%, which demonstrates a strong equity position relative to total assets, providing stability and resilience against liabilities.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals adequate liquidity management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.14, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.56, suggesting robust cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow growth rate shows a negative trend, down by 4.3%, which may limit future investment capabilities.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
25.43B25.85B26.64B26.48B26.04B26.18B
Gross Profit
8.79B8.97B8.93B8.12B8.68B9.18B
EBIT
1.58B1.68B4.57B3.63B3.46B2.13B
EBITDA
2.71B2.72B5.51B4.82B4.67B3.39B
Net Income Common Stockholders
2.65B2.74B2.85B2.36B1.01B356.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.10B1.33B1.40B1.04B3.44B3.42B
Total Assets
103.56B88.29B90.34B90.51B93.39B99.83B
Total Debt
31.11B19.87B20.03B20.07B21.82B28.31B
Net Debt
30.01B18.54B18.63B19.03B18.37B24.89B
Total Liabilities
51.73B38.96B40.62B41.64B43.94B49.59B
Stockholders Equity
51.70B49.19B49.53B48.68B49.30B50.10B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
3.02B3.16B2.96B1.55B4.46B4.33B
Operating Cash Flow
4.13B4.18B3.98B2.47B5.36B4.93B
Investing Cash Flow
-1.61B-1.02B-916.00M-1.09B4.04B-522.00M
Financing Cash Flow
-1.87B-3.01B-2.68B-3.71B-9.34B-3.33B

Kraft Heinz Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price26.08
Price Trends
50DMA
27.72
Negative
100DMA
28.55
Negative
200DMA
30.17
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.38
Negative
RSI
36.73
Neutral
STOCH
22.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.60, below the 50-day MA of 27.72, and below the 200-day MA of 30.17, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for KHC.

Kraft Heinz Risk Analysis

Kraft Heinz disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kraft Heinz reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kraft Heinz Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
HRHRL
71
Outperform
$16.82B22.499.39%3.79%-1.01%-2.93%
KHKHC
68
Neutral
$30.87B11.825.36%6.13%-4.25%-4.04%
CACAG
67
Neutral
$10.30B31.563.67%6.49%-3.15%-65.38%
CPCPB
65
Neutral
$9.78B21.6711.67%4.76%8.65%-38.57%
65
Neutral
$8.81B14.924.67%6.17%3.60%-2.89%
GIGIS
63
Neutral
$29.33B11.7627.37%4.48%-2.62%4.27%
SJSJM
60
Neutral
$10.19B22.22-17.87%4.51%7.07%-181.54%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KHC
Kraft Heinz
26.08
-5.18
-16.57%
CPB
Campbell Soup
32.79
-10.57
-24.38%
CAG
Conagra Brands
21.57
-5.68
-20.84%
GIS
General Mills
53.56
-10.24
-16.05%
HRL
Hormel Foods
30.58
0.97
3.28%
SJM
JM Smucker
95.72
-12.19
-11.30%

Kraft Heinz Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Kraft Heinz Board Members Step Down
Neutral
May 20, 2025

On May 19, 2025, Kraft Heinz announced that Board members Timothy Kenesey and Alicia Knapp decided to step down, effective May 20, 2025, without any disagreements with the company’s management or policies. As a result, the Board’s size has been reduced to ten members, which may impact the company’s governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (KHC) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kraft Heinz stock, see the KHC Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Kraft Heinz Elects Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Kraft Heinz held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders where all 12 director nominees were elected for a one-year term. Additionally, stockholders approved the executive compensation and the selection of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as independent auditors for 2025. However, proposals regarding recyclability claims, plastic packaging, and adopting a policy for an independent Board Chair were not approved.

The most recent analyst rating on (KHC) stock is a Hold with a $34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kraft Heinz stock, see the KHC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.