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Kraft Heinz (KHC)
NASDAQ:KHC
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Kraft Heinz (KHC) AI Stock Analysis

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KHC

Kraft Heinz

(NASDAQ:KHC)

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Neutral 53 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$26.00
▲(2.48% Upside)
Kraft Heinz's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges and a concerning valuation. The company's declining revenues and profitability, coupled with a negative P/E ratio, weigh heavily on the score. Technical analysis provides some balance with neutral to slightly bearish indicators. The high dividend yield is a positive aspect but is overshadowed by the broader financial struggles.
Positive Factors
Emerging Markets Growth
Strong growth in emerging markets indicates successful expansion and brand penetration, which can drive long-term revenue growth and market share.
Back-to-School Campaign Success
Successful marketing campaigns enhance brand visibility and consumer engagement, supporting sustained sales growth and brand loyalty.
Cash Flow Generation
Strong cash flow generation provides financial flexibility for reinvestment, debt reduction, and shareholder returns, supporting long-term stability.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
A declining revenue trend can signal weakening market position and demand, potentially impacting future profitability and growth prospects.
Negative Profit Margins
Sustained negative profit margins indicate operational inefficiencies and could hinder the company's ability to invest in growth and innovation.
Weaker Consumer Sentiment
Weak consumer sentiment can lead to reduced demand and sales, affecting revenue and profitability, especially in key markets.

Kraft Heinz (KHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Kraft Heinz Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionKraft Heinz Company (KHC) is one of the largest food and beverage companies in the world, formed through the merger of Kraft Foods Group and H.J. Heinz Company in 2015. The company operates in the consumer packaged goods sector, offering a diverse portfolio of iconic brands across various categories, including condiments, sauces, cheese, dairy, meats, snacks, and meals. Its core products include well-known labels such as Heinz ketchup, Kraft macaroni and cheese, Oscar Mayer meats, and Philadelphia cream cheese, among others. With a strong presence in North America and international markets, Kraft Heinz focuses on innovation and brand strength to meet consumer demands and preferences.
How the Company Makes MoneyKraft Heinz generates revenue primarily through the sale of its food and beverage products across retail, food service, and e-commerce channels. The company operates on a revenue model that consists of multiple key streams, including direct sales to grocery stores, supermarkets, club stores, and wholesalers, as well as partnerships with restaurant chains and food distributors. Additionally, Kraft Heinz capitalizes on brand licensing and co-branding agreements to expand its market reach. The company's significant investments in marketing and product innovation, along with its growing focus on health-conscious and sustainable offerings, contribute to its earnings. The company also benefits from economies of scale due to its large size and global distribution network, allowing it to maintain competitive pricing and enhance profitability.

Kraft Heinz Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Net Revenue by Geography
Net Revenue by Geography
Illustrates revenue distribution across regions, indicating market dominance, exposure to regional risks, and opportunities for expansion.
Chart InsightsKraft Heinz's North American revenue shows stability, but the U.S. segment remains absent from recent data, indicating potential reporting changes. International markets, especially emerging ones, are gaining momentum, as noted in the earnings call. The company is focusing on brand growth and product renovations to combat inflation and tariff impacts. Despite market pressures, strategic investments in marketing and emerging markets are expected to drive future growth, although operating income may face short-term declines due to increased costs and promotional activities.
Data provided by:The Fly

Kraft Heinz Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 27, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call outlined some positive developments in Emerging Markets and successful campaigns, but these were overshadowed by significant challenges in consumer sentiment, U.S. consumption, and specific market issues like Indonesia. Inflation and slower-than-expected recovery in key segments also contributed to a cautious outlook.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Emerging Markets Growth
Outside of Indonesia, Emerging Markets grew by 9.2%. The Heinz brand in these markets is growing at 13% year-to-date, showing strong performance in regions like Brazil and a recovery in Mexico.
Back-to-School Campaign Success
The back-to-school campaign yielded positive results with cross-shopping purchase improving by 60 basis points and increased base velocity for brands like Lunchables and Capri Sun.
North American Grocery Improvement
North American Grocery Company showed significant improvement in trends in Q3 compared to the first half of the year, with a focus on stable cash flows heading into 2026.
Negative Updates
Weaker Consumer Sentiment
There is a worsening consumer sentiment globally, with significant declines in regions such as Indonesia, impacting sales and leading to a revision in 2025 profit expectations.
U.S. Consumption and Inventory Challenges
Lower consumption expectations in the U.S. and inventory adjustments by customers are anticipated to impact Q4 performance, with a significant inventory headwind of over 100 basis points.
Challenges in Indonesia
Indonesia, accounting for about $300 million in revenue, faces a significant decline in consumer sentiment by nearly 10 points year-over-year, affecting overall Emerging Markets performance.
Taste Elevation Recovery Slower Than Expected
Although 70% of Taste Elevation revenue is gaining market share, the recovery is slower than anticipated, affecting overall performance.
Inflation and Pricing Challenges
Incremental inflation in Meat and Coffee, coupled with competitive pricing dynamics, resulted in not fully pricing certain cost elements, impacting profitability.
Company Guidance
During the Kraft Heinz Company’s third quarter 2025 earnings call, the company updated its 2025 outlook, reflecting a modest year-over-year recovery in top-line performance. However, the operating environment remains challenging due to worsening consumer sentiment and ongoing inflation affecting buying behavior globally. Despite these challenges, Kraft Heinz is on track to separate into two independently traded companies in the second half of 2026. The company is not attributing its profit revision to increased investment spending but rather to lower consumption expectations in the U.S., a slower recovery in the Taste Elevation division, incremental inflation in meat and coffee, and certain supply chain disruptions in Q3. The company plans to increase promotional investments by around $300 million in the U.S., with $80 million in incremental marketing spending in media, and additional R&D investments. While the North American Grocery Company is expected to improve in trends, the Global Taste Elevation Co. is projected to transition back to growth in 2026.

Kraft Heinz Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Kraft Heinz faces significant profitability challenges with negative EBIT and EBITDA margins and a net profit margin of -20.83% TTM. Revenue growth is inconsistent, and the balance sheet shows a slight decline in equity ratios. However, strong cash flow metrics indicate good liquidity, providing some resilience.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The company shows a negative trend in profitability with a significant decline in the TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) EBIT and EBITDA margins due to negative EBIT and EBITDA. The gross profit margin for TTM stands at 34.29%, slightly below the previous year. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a recent decline of 2.07% from the previous year. Net profit margin has turned negative at -20.83% TTM, a stark contrast to previous positive margins, indicating profitability challenges.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet demonstrates a moderate level of financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.47, suggesting a balanced leverage position. However, the equity ratio slightly declined to 50.70% TTM from 55.71% in the previous year. Return on equity has turned negative in the TTM period due to negative net income, which is a concern. Overall, the company maintains a substantial equity base, providing some financial resilience.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a strong operating cash flow to net income ratio TTM, indicating efficient cash generation despite negative net income. Free cash flow growth from the previous year is 10.57%, showing healthy cash retention. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, highlighting that the company is generating cash beyond its accounting profits, which is a positive indicator of liquidity.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue25.16B25.85B26.64B26.48B26.04B26.18B
Gross Profit8.47B8.97B8.93B8.12B8.68B9.18B
EBITDA-4.67B2.72B5.51B4.82B4.67B3.39B
Net Income-4.37B2.74B2.85B2.36B1.01B356.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets81.69B88.29B90.34B90.51B93.39B99.83B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.13B1.33B1.40B1.04B3.44B3.42B
Total Debt21.19B19.87B20.03B20.07B21.82B28.31B
Total Liabilities40.12B38.96B40.62B41.64B43.94B49.59B
Stockholders Equity41.45B49.19B49.53B48.68B49.30B50.10B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow3.63B3.16B2.96B1.55B4.46B4.33B
Operating Cash Flow4.47B4.18B3.98B2.47B5.36B4.93B
Investing Cash Flow-1.78B-1.02B-916.00M-1.09B4.04B-522.00M
Financing Cash Flow-1.73B-3.01B-2.68B-3.71B-9.34B-3.33B

Kraft Heinz Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price25.37
Price Trends
50DMA
24.87
Positive
100DMA
25.78
Negative
200DMA
26.54
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.14
Negative
RSI
60.44
Neutral
STOCH
70.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.45, above the 50-day MA of 24.87, and below the 200-day MA of 26.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KHC.

Kraft Heinz Risk Analysis

Kraft Heinz disclosed 39 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Kraft Heinz reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Kraft Heinz Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
$25.26B8.9630.98%5.07%-3.26%25.58%
67
Neutral
$9.07B15.1915.64%5.06%6.40%6.17%
64
Neutral
$8.54B10.079.65%7.92%-4.11%72.17%
63
Neutral
$12.77B16.929.46%4.99%0.65%-3.76%
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
53
Neutral
$30.20B-9.73%6.31%-3.70%-431.05%
46
Neutral
$11.12B-17.44%4.23%-0.66%-326.55%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
KHC
Kraft Heinz
25.37
-4.30
-14.49%
CPB
Campbell Soup
30.59
-12.99
-29.81%
CAG
Conagra Brands
17.67
-8.25
-31.83%
GIS
General Mills
47.07
-16.27
-25.69%
HRL
Hormel Foods
23.30
-7.23
-23.68%
SJM
JM Smucker
103.09
-9.61
-8.53%

Kraft Heinz Corporate Events

Kraft Heinz Co. Faces Financial Risk Over Potential Tax Liabilities in Planned Transactions
Oct 31, 2025

Kraft Heinz Co. faces a significant financial risk if the planned Separation and related transactions do not qualify as tax-free under U.S. federal income tax laws. Despite their intention to structure these transactions to be tax-exempt, there is no guarantee of achieving this status. Should these transactions be deemed taxable, both the company and its stockholders could incur substantial tax liabilities. This uncertainty poses a potential financial burden that could impact Kraft Heinz Co.’s financial health and investor confidence.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Kraft Heinz Appoints New Board Members for Strategic Growth
Positive
Oct 22, 2025

On October 22, 2025, Kraft Heinz announced the appointment of L. Kevin Cox, Mary Lou Kelley, and Tony Palmer to its Board of Directors. These new members bring significant expertise in consumer-focused industries and organizational transformation, which is crucial as the company prepares to separate into two industry-leading companies. The appointments are expected to enhance the company’s strategic initiatives and drive performance within its existing business.

The most recent analyst rating on (KHC) stock is a Hold with a $27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kraft Heinz stock, see the KHC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Kraft Heinz Announces Spin-Off into Two Companies
Positive
Sep 2, 2025

On September 2, 2025, Kraft Heinz announced its plan to separate into two independent, publicly traded companies through a tax-free spin-off, aiming to enhance strategic focus and operational efficiency. The separation will create ‘Global Taste Elevation Co.’ and ‘North American Grocery Co.’, each with distinct brand portfolios and leadership, designed to unlock shareholder value and drive industry-leading growth, with the transaction expected to close in the second half of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (KHC) stock is a Hold with a $29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kraft Heinz stock, see the KHC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 22, 2025