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Dorian LPG (LPG)
NYSE:LPG
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Dorian LPG
(NYSE:LPG)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$40.00
â–²(12.61% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/07/26
Overall score reflects strong financial profitability/cash generation with improved leverage, supported by attractive valuation (moderate P/E and high dividend yield). Technicals show a solid uptrend but momentum is overextended, and the earnings call underscores good current performance tempered by rate volatility, limited near-term visibility, and 2026 fleet supply/financing execution considerations.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and margins
Consistent TTM free cash flow (~$165M) that closely tracks net income (≈93%) alongside high gross (~60%) and net (~30%) margins indicates durable earnings quality. This cash generation supports capex, dividends and deleveraging even through shipping cycles, enhancing financial resilience.
Improved leverage and liquidity flexibility
Material reduction in leverage (debt-to-equity ≈0.24 vs prior ~0.68) and sizeable equity provide a stronger capital structure. Undrawn facilities and low net debt-to-cap (≈13.8%) give financing optionality for dividends, working capital and newbuilding payments while lowering refinancing and covenant stress risk.
Fleet efficiency and lower operating fuel intensity
A fleet AER materially below the IMO 2025 target and investments in scrubbers, dual‑fuel capability and energy‑saving devices deliver durable fuel and emissions advantages. These reduce operating cost per day, aid regulatory compliance and support stronger long‑term margins and charter competitiveness.
Negative Factors
High freight-rate cyclicality and policy shocks
Freight revenues remain highly cyclical and sensitive to policy or regional shocks (e.g., Saudi CP moves, China port fee changes). Such structural volatility reduces forward revenue visibility, complicates booking strategies and can materially swing cash flow and returns across quarters and years.
Near-term fleet supply absorption risk
A significant delivery wave (~36 VLGCs in 2026) increases available capacity and may outpace demand growth. Given shipping market dynamics, elevated supply can depress TCEs and utilization for extended periods, pressuring revenue and margin sustainability until the market rebalances.
Newbuilding financing and execution risk
An imminent ~$62M payment for a newbuilding that management plans to finance creates near‑term execution and funding risk. Although liquidity exists, adverse market or credit conditions could raise financing costs or force trade‑offs between leverage, dividend policy and capex timing, impacting strategic flexibility.
Dorian LPG (LPG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.51B
Dividend Yield13.08%
Average Volume (3M)522.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.4
Beta (1Y)1.10
Revenue Growth-27.21%
EPS Growth-62.22%
CountryUS
Employees577
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.11
Shares Outstanding42,744,102
10 Day Avg. Volume478,337
30 Day Avg. Volume522,169
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.15
Price to Book (P/B)0.90
Price to Sales (P/S)2.66
P/FCF Ratio6.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.33
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.02
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.34
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$31.00Price Target Upside-12.73% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$441.35M
Dorian LPG Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionDorian LPG Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transportation of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) through its LPG tankers worldwide. The company owns and operates very large gas carriers (VLGCs). As of May 27, 2022, its fleet consisted of twenty-two VLGCs. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
How the Company Makes MoneyDorian LPG generates revenue primarily through the transportation of LPG on its fleet of VLGCs. The company operates under a time charter and spot market model, where it earns income by leasing its vessels to customers for a specified duration (time charters) or by engaging in one-off contracts (spot charters) based on current market rates. Additionally, Dorian LPG may benefit from long-term contracts with major energy companies, providing a stable revenue stream. The company also focuses on operational efficiency and cost management to maximize profitability. Fluctuations in LPG demand, shipping rates, and operational costs significantly influence its earnings, making the company's performance closely tied to global energy market dynamics.
Dorian LPG Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a solid operational and financial picture: strong chartering results (TCEs near $50k/day), healthy adjusted EBITDA ($74.2M), rising free cash and continued shareholder returns, combined with fleet efficiency gains (AER ~10% better than IMO target) and completion of major docking programs. Offsetting these positives were notable market headwinds and volatility (Saudi CP adjustment, China port fees), temporary lower scrubber economics due to bunker price dynamics, near-term fleet supply additions (~36 VLGCs in 2026) and some opportunity cost from prior time-charter fixes. Management emphasized liquidity and low leverage, and signaled financing for a $62M newbuilding payment, while deferring detailed forward booking guidance given market volatility. Overall, the positives (strong earnings, cash, fleet efficiency and shareholder returns) outweigh the lowlights, though rate volatility and supply dynamics warrant monitoring.Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Chartering Performance (TCE)
Reported TCE per available day of $50,333 for the quarter; Helios Pool spot and COA TCE of $50,500 per day. Spot exposure in the Helios Pool was approximately 90% for the 29 vessels, providing high upside to spot rate improvements.
Robust Adjusted EBITDA and Cash Position
Adjusted EBITDA of $74.2 million for the quarter. Free cash of $294.5 million at quarter end, up about $25 million (≈9%) from the prior quarter despite paying a dividend and a new-building installment.
Shareholder Returns and Capital Returned Since IPO
Declared an irregular dividend of $0.70 per share (~$29.9 million) — the 18th dividend payment. Total dividends distributed exceed $725 million and total cash returned to shareholders since IPO is approximately $961 million.
Fleet Efficiency and Emissions Performance
Average fleet AER for 2025 was 6.24%, which is 10.4% better than the IMO 2025 target of 6.96%. Company operates 16 scrubber-fitted vessels and 5 dual-fuel LPG vessels, and has fitted energy-saving devices and silicone paint across much of the fleet.
Meaningful Fuel and Operating Savings
Scrubber-related vessel savings for the quarter amounted to $1,116,000 (about $933 per calendar day, net of scrubber operating expenses). Energy-saving devices and silicone paints typically provide ~5% fuel consumption improvement with paybacks generally within ~1 year.
Low Leverage and Liquidity Flexibility
Debt balance of $516 million with debt-to-total book capitalization at 32.2% and net debt-to-total cap at 13.8%. Company has an undrawn $50 million revolver, a $100 million accordion feature, one debt-free vessel and a heavily hedged/locked-in debt cost of ~5%.
Record Seaborne LPG Trade and Strong US Exports
Market backdrop: global seaborne LPG trade reached a new quarterly record (reported as more than 37 million tons) with North American exports over 18.5 million tons. Separately, management noted global liftings up ~3% year-over-year (36.8 million tons) in the prior period.
Operational Progress — Dry Docking and Newbuilding Delivery
Completed 12 dry dockings over the past year and three in the quarter; one dry docking remaining to complete the docking cycle for 2014–2016 vessels. Expected delivery in March of a 93,000-cbm ammonia-capable VLAC/VLGC newbuilding (LPG dual-fuel, hybrid scrubber) — approximately $62 million cash at closing, with financing planned.
Negative Updates
Market Volatility Driven by Pricing and Policy Shocks
Freight markets were challenged by a lower-than-anticipated Saudi contract price (October) that narrowed arbitrage and by retaliatory/ambiguous China port service fees tied to USTR Section 301, which caused rerouting, added costs and short-term market disruption. Baltic index averaged lower than the prior quarter before recovering into 2026.
Temporary Reduction in Scrubber Savings
Scrubber savings were lower than prior expectations due to lower bunker prices and reduced differentials; fuel differential HSFO vs VLSFO averaged $57/mt and LPG vs VLSFO averaged $104/mt, resulting in smaller-than-normal scrubber economic benefit this quarter.
Near-Term Fleet Supply Absorption Risk
Approximately 36 VLGCs (including one of Dorian's newbuilds) are expected to require absorption in 2026, which could exert downward pressure on rates if demand does not keep pace with supply additions.
Opportunity Cost from Earlier Time-Charter Decisions
Some vessels were placed on multi-month/year time charters (e.g., a ship fixed into 2027 from a deal done Oct–Nov) before the recent spot upswing; management acknowledged the market has since surprised on the upside, implying potential missed near-term spot upside on those fixtures.
Ongoing Uncertainty on Forward Bookings and Guidance
Management deferred providing detailed forward booking guidance until later in the quarter due to high rate volatility, reducing short-term visibility for investors on quarter-ahead revenue expectations.
Capital Requirement for Newbuilding Delivery
Expected cash payment of about $62 million at newbuilding delivery in March 2026 will be financed (management plans to enter a loan facility), adding a near-term financing action and modest execution risk.
External Operational Disruptions
Weather/fog and port/operational issues in the U.S. and elsewhere contributed to lifted cargo timing uncertainty and temporary reductions in cargo liftings in late Q4, impacting short-term market activity.
Company Guidance
Management deferred detailed forward-booking guidance until later in the quarter due to rate volatility but provided point estimates and balance-sheet targets: Q3 TCE per available day was $50,333 (Helios Pool spot/COA TCE $50,500) with ~90% spot exposure in the 29‑vessel pool; adjusted EBITDA was $74.2M; daily OpEx (ex‑drydock) ~$9,558; and free cash was $294.5M (up ~$25M QoQ). For the March quarter they expect TCI expense of $18–19M (last quarter $18.2M, ~ $33k/day hire), cash G&A ~$8.7M (core ~$6.7M), total cash interest was $6.8M last quarter with a current debt cost ~5%, and they project cash cost/day of ~ $27,000 for the coming year (ex‑drydock/scrubber capex). Capital-allocation guidance: an irregular dividend of $0.70/share (~$29.9M) payable ~Feb 24, 2026 (record Feb 9), debt of $516M (debt/total cap 32.2%, net debt/total cap 13.8%), an undrawn $50M revolver plus $100M accordion, and an expected ~$62M cash payment at late‑March delivery of the 93,000 cbm Hanwha newbuilding (to be financed); they also expect to complete the docking cycle with one dry docking this quarter.Dorian LPG Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong profitability (TTM gross margin ~60%, net margin ~30%) and solid cash conversion (TTM FCF ~$165M, ~93% of net income; OCF ~1.10x net income) supported by improved leverage (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.24). The main constraint is meaningful cyclicality and year-to-year volatility typical of shipping-linked markets, which reduces earnings visibility.Income Statement
Profitability is strong across the cycle, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross margin near 60% and net margin around 30%, indicating solid earnings power. Revenue is up sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (+10.9%), but results are volatile year-to-year (a very strong 2024 followed by a much lower 2025 annual profit level), which is typical for shipping-linked markets and reduces visibility.78
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage has improved materially, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.24 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus ~0.68 in the latest annual period, and equity remains sizable (~$1.09B). Returns on equity are healthy in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (~11%), though below the peak seen in 2024, reflecting normalization in profitability; overall, the balance sheet looks supportive but still exposed to cyclical earnings swings.74
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is solid: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow is strong (~$165M) and closely tracks net income (about 93%), suggesting earnings quality is good. Operating cash flow modestly exceeds net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (~1.10x), but cash flow growth is uneven (very strong in TTM after a weaker 2025 annual trend), pointing to variability tied to market conditions and timing.76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 400.69M | 353.34M | 560.72M | 389.75M | 274.22M | 315.94M |
| Gross Profit | 200.78M | 152.69M | 365.24M | 228.05M | 112.99M | 147.71M |
| EBITDA | 215.24M | 192.98M | 414.12M | 265.87M | 158.19M | 191.91M |
| Net Income | 120.74M | 90.17M | 307.45M | 172.44M | 71.94M | 92.56M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.78B | 1.78B | 1.84B | 1.71B | 1.61B | 1.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 294.49M | 316.88M | 294.04M | 148.80M | 236.76M | 79.33M |
| Total Debt | 786.26M | 712.98M | 797.34M | 816.09M | 670.96M | 609.35M |
| Total Liabilities | 692.11M | 732.55M | 814.12M | 835.07M | 687.21M | 634.79M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.09B | 1.05B | 1.02B | 873.85M | 920.15M | 946.83M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 164.92M | 154.06M | 355.59M | 155.27M | 95.51M | 161.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 178.19M | 173.01M | 388.45M | 224.06M | 118.70M | 170.60M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.94M | -7.36M | -34.80M | -76.34M | 68.77M | 1.02M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -165.64M | -131.29M | -219.72M | -235.23M | -35.18M | -174.48M |
Dorian LPG Technical Analysis
Positive
35.52
Price Trends
27.62
Positive
26.75
Positive
26.28
Positive
Market Momentum
2.15
Negative
80.16
Negative
92.34
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LPG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 35.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.91, above the 50-day MA of 27.62, and above the 200-day MA of 26.28, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 80.16 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LPG.
Dorian LPG Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.51B | 7.18 | 18.48% | 3.72% | -20.11% | -26.44% | |
79 Outperform | $1.28B | 13.04 | 8.57% | 1.27% | 2.46% | 33.89% | |
76 Outperform | $1.51B | 12.41 | 11.21% | 13.08% | -27.21% | -62.22% | |
71 Outperform | $145.03M | 2.56 | 12.11% | 5.08% | 4.34% | 18.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $1.65B | 23.16 | 11.24% | 6.93% | 4.10% | -36.72% | |
57 Neutral | $1.45B | 19.68 | 9.81% | 12.31% | -3.20% | 6.76% |
* Energy Sector Average
LPG
Dorian LPG
35.52
14.85
71.82%
GLP
Global Partners
48.48
-6.06
-11.12%
TNK
Teekay Tankers
72.88
33.36
84.43%
NVGS
Navigator Holdings
20.19
4.70
30.35%
DLNG
Dynagas LNG Partners
4.08
0.37
9.97%
FLNG
FLEX LNG
27.49
6.32
29.87%
Dorian LPG Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Dorian LPG Announces Irregular Cash Dividend and Update
Neutral
Jan 30, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Dorian LPG’s board declared an irregular cash dividend of $0.70 per share, returning about $29.9 million to shareholders, with payment scheduled around February 24, 2026 to investors of record as of February 9, 2026, and noted that future dividends will depend on factors such as operational performance, balance sheet strength and capital needs. The company also flagged that weaker market rates in November for December loadings and weather-related delays in the Houston Ship Channel weighed on realized charter revenues for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, and it expects approximately $1.8 million in additional general and administrative expense tied to higher accruals under its annual cash incentive plan, while stressing that these preliminary figures remain unaudited and subject to change ahead of its planned earnings release and conference call on February 5, 2026.
The most recent analyst rating on (LPG) stock is a Hold with a $32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dorian LPG stock, see the LPG Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.