Navigator Holdings (NVGS)
NYSE:NVGS
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Navigator Holdings
(NYSE:NVGS)
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Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
$22.00
â–²(9.45% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance and a positive earnings outlook with strong rate headroom and liquidity. These positives are tempered by weaker near-term technical momentum (RSI ~32 and price below 20/50-day averages) and concerns around rising leverage and uneven free cash flow.
Positive Factors
High TCE vs breakeven
Sustained TCE rates materially above the company’s all‑in breakeven provide durable margin headroom across cycles. That structural spread supports long‑term cash generation, enables dividend/buyback policy and reduces sensitivity to moderate freight rate declines, strengthening earnings resilience.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Leverage increasing notably compresses financial flexibility and raises covenant and refinancing sensitivity over the medium term. Higher debt burdens can amplify earnings volatility in shipping cycles and limit strategic optionality for opportunistic investments or larger buybacks during weaker rate environments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High TCE vs breakeven
Sustained TCE rates materially above the company’s all‑in breakeven provide durable margin headroom across cycles. That structural spread supports long‑term cash generation, enables dividend/buyback policy and reduces sensitivity to moderate freight rate declines, strengthening earnings resilience.
Read all positive factors
Navigator Holdings (NVGS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.34B
Dividend Yield1.27%
Average Volume (3M)515.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth2.46%
EPS Growth33.89%
CountryUS
Employees174
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Midstream
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.32
Shares Outstanding65,250,440
10 Day Avg. Volume282,312
30 Day Avg. Volume515,231
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.48
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)1.99
P/FCF Ratio17.70
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.69
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.50Price Target Upside21.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.69
Revenue Forecast (FY)$550.01M
Navigator Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Navigator Holdings Ltd. owns and operates a fleet of liquefied gas carriers worldwide. The company provides international and regional seaborne transportation services of liquefied petroleum gas, petrochemical gases, and ammonia for energy compani...
How the Company Makes Money
Navigator primarily makes money by chartering its liquefied gas carriers to customers and earning shipping revenue for transporting liquefied gas cargoes. Its main revenue stream is vessel operating revenue generated under charter arrangements, wh...
Navigator Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Fleet Utilization Rate
Calculates the share of available days that were earning revenue (earning days ÷ available days). A high utilization rate signals strong demand and better revenue conversion from the fleet, while a low rate warns of idle ships and pressure on freight rates.
Calculates the share of available days that were earning revenue (earning days ÷ available days). A high utilization rate signals strong demand and better revenue conversion from the fleet, while a low rate warns of idle ships and pressure on freight rates.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNavigator Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive operational and financial picture: record annual EBITDA and net income, robust TCE rates well above the company's breakeven level, strong liquidity and disciplined capital returns, successful low-cost financing for newbuilds, and encouraging momentum at the Morgan's Point terminal (including recent offtake deals and record March volumes). Short-term challenges include Q4 sequential EBITDA softness, higher OpEx from fleet additions, some terminal volume volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty from the war in the Middle East that increases market volatility. Overall, management portrays resilience, strong balance sheet flexibility, and opportunity-driven growth despite the risks.Positive Updates
Steady Quarterly Revenue with Year-over-Year Growth
Q4 2025 revenue of $153.0 million, flat vs. Q3 2025 and up 6% year-over-year, driven by an 8% higher time charter equivalent (TCE) rate versus the same period last year.
Negative Updates
Quarterly EBITDA Dip from Prior Quarter
Adjusted EBITDA declined from $77 million in Q3 2025 to $73.4 million in Q4 2025 (modest quarter-over-quarter decrease), signaling slight near-term pressure versus the immediate prior quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Steady Quarterly Revenue with Year-over-Year Growth
Q4 2025 revenue of $153.0 million, flat vs. Q3 2025 and up 6% year-over-year, driven by an 8% higher time charter equivalent (TCE) rate versus the same period last year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance: management expects TCE rates and utilization to remain at or above Q4 levels — Q4 TCE $30,647/day (2025 average TCE $30,110/day) and utilization ~90% — versus a 2026 all‑in cash breakeven of $20,970/day, implying strong margin headroom; Morgan’s Point ethylene throughput is expected to strengthen toward or above the Q3 record (Q4 = ~191,700 t; March projected near 120,000 t), supporting continued Europe demand and emerging Asian pull. Financing progress is on track (two newbuild financings signed at 150 bps over SOFR; remaining two Ethylene Panda financings targeted for Mar/Apr 2026 and two ammonia financings in Q2), corporate liquidity is roughly $300M including undrawn facilities (available cash excl. restricted ≈ $246M), net debt/2025 adjusted EBITDA 2.5x, LTV ~32%, average scheduled amortization ≈ $126M/year (2025–2028) with $54M of small balloons due in 2026. Capital return remains 30% of net income with a fixed quarterly dividend of $0.07/share (Q4/Q1 dividend ≈ $4.6M) plus buybacks to meet the variable portion; operational guidance includes vessel OpEx $7,900–$11,400/day by segment, and management notes adjusted EBITDA sensitivity of about $18M for each $1,000 change in average TCE.Navigator Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 586.96M | 566.68M | 550.74M | 473.79M | 406.48M |
| Gross Profit | 176.57M | 319.50M | 170.51M | 88.92M | 93.95M |
| EBITDA | 274.72M | 270.42M | 264.71M | 209.26M | 88.77M |
| Net Income | 100.12M | 85.57M | 82.25M | 53.47M | -30.96M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.28B | 2.18B | 2.20B | 2.10B | 2.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 204.87M | 130.46M | 149.58M | 146.56M | 123.89M |
| Total Debt | 903.05M | 607.20M | 736.73M | 810.54M | 920.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.02B | 934.26M | 969.61M | 923.33M | 1.04B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.23B | 1.21B | 1.19B | 1.16B | 1.11B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 65.89M | 169.12M | -17.26M | 84.54M | 94.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 219.49M | 210.52M | 174.70M | 130.31M | 97.94M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -94.93M | -100.99M | -176.48M | 35.64M | 33.06M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -58.21M | -126.01M | 6.81M | -134.14M | -66.09M |
Navigator Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
20.10
Price Trends
19.45
Positive
18.59
Positive
17.19
Positive
Market Momentum
0.21
Negative
55.61
Neutral
74.70
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVGS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.40, above the 50-day MA of 19.45, and above the 200-day MA of 17.19, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.70 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVGS.
Navigator Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.60B | 5.26 | 18.37% | 3.72% | -20.11% | -26.44% | |
74 Outperform | $2.83B | 9.29 | 19.30% | 6.12% | -16.45% | 23.94% | |
74 Outperform | $1.52B | 5.49 | 11.41% | 13.08% | -27.21% | -62.22% | |
68 Neutral | $1.34B | 11.65 | 8.19% | 1.27% | 2.46% | 33.89% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
62 Neutral | $5.43B | 57.40 | 3.45% | 2.68% | 19.15% | 329.74% | |
57 Neutral | $1.57B | 15.66 | 9.96% | 12.31% | -3.20% | 6.76% |
* Energy Sector Average
NVGS
Navigator Holdings
20.10
7.94
65.26%
DHT
DHT Holdings
17.18
7.57
78.85%
GLNG
Golar LNG
52.99
16.54
45.37%
TNK
Teekay Tankers
72.89
36.08
98.03%
LPG
Dorian LPG
34.59
16.24
88.53%
FLNG
FLEX LNG
30.88
10.55
51.89%
Navigator Holdings Corporate Events
Navigator Holdings Closes 8 Million-Share Secondary Offering and Buys Back 3.5 Million Shares
Mar 23, 2026
Navigator Holdings, through its Navigator Gas brand, is a leading owner and operator of handysize liquefied gas carriers, moving petrochemical gases such as ethylene, ethane, LPG and ammonia worldwide. It also owns a 50% interest in an ethylene ex...
Navigator Holdings Prices Upsized 8 Million-Share Secondary Offering and Launches Concurrent Buyback
Mar 20, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Navigator Holdings announced that selling shareholder BW Group Limited had upsized and priced a secondary public offering of 8,000,000 Navigator common shares at $17.50 each. The company itself is not issuing new stock or receiv...
Navigator Gas Shareholder Launches 7 Million-Share Secondary Offering as Company Plans Concurrent Buyback
Mar 19, 2026
On March 19, 2026, Navigator Gas reported that major shareholder BW Group Limited launched a secondary public offering of 7,000,000 Navigator common shares, with all proceeds going to the selling shareholder rather than the company. The transactio...
Navigator Holdings Secures $133.7 Million Loan to Finance Two New Ethylene Gas Carriers
Mar 3, 2026
On March 2, 2026, Navigator Holdings’ subsidiaries Navigator Parsec and Navigator Pleione secured a senior secured pre- and post-delivery term loan facility of up to $133.77 million from a banking syndicate led by ABN AMRO, Crédit Agric...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.