Li Auto (LI) AI Stock Analysis

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Li Auto

(NASDAQ:LI)

Rating:71Outperform

Price Target:

$30.00

▲(14.77%Upside)

Li Auto's solid financial performance, characterized by strong revenue growth and profitability, is a key strength. The technical analysis indicates potential short-term weakness, while a moderate valuation supports long-term growth prospects. Positive earnings call insights and guidance further bolster the stock's outlook, despite challenges from seasonal revenue declines.

Positive Factors

Cost Management

The company demonstrated better cost control with SG&A expenses being lower than anticipated.

Financial Performance

Li Auto reported a GAAP net profit that surpassed analyst expectations mainly due to higher vehicle sales.

Negative Factors

Market Dynamics

Escalating price competition and Beijing’s intervention have left some consumers hesitant.

Sales Performance

The underperformance was attributable to slower MTD sales, tracking behind the company’s 2Q volume guidance.

Li Auto (LI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$26.46B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)4.29M

Price to Earnings (P/E)24.8

Beta (1Y)0.84

Revenue Growth10.28%

EPS Growth-29.75%

CountryUS

Employees32,248

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength60

IndustryAuto - Manufacturers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.34

Shares Outstanding892,535,100

10 Day Avg. Volume4,553,710

30 Day Avg. Volume4,285,109

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio2.59

Price to Book (P/B)1.33

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio8.19

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$33.30

Price Target Upside27.39% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering9

Li Auto Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLi Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. It designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. The company's product line comprises MPVs and sport utility vehicles. It offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as purchases manufacturing equipment. The company offers its products through online and offline channels. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes MoneyLi Auto generates revenue primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles, particularly its Li ONE model, which is a premium extended-range electric SUV. The company's revenue model includes direct sales to customers, leveraging both physical retail locations and an online sales platform. In addition to vehicle sales, Li Auto may derive additional income from after-sales services, such as maintenance and repairs. The company also benefits from government incentives and subsidies for electric vehicle manufacturers, which help offset production costs and make their vehicles more competitive in the market. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and suppliers further enhance Li Auto's product offerings and operational efficiency, contributing to its overall revenue stream.

Li Auto Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Deliveries

Deliveries
Tracks the number of vehicles delivered to customers, indicating demand strength, production efficiency, and overall market penetration for Li Auto.

Chart InsightsLi Auto's vehicle deliveries have shown robust growth, with a notable increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. Despite a seasonal dip in Q1 2025, the company achieved a 15.5% year-over-year increase. The earnings call highlights strong market leadership and product innovation, with new models driving demand. However, quarter-over-quarter declines in revenue and deliveries, attributed to seasonal factors, suggest potential volatility. The expansion of the supercharging network and upcoming BEV models are strategic moves to sustain growth and market competitiveness.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Li Auto Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 29, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -6.31%|

Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

Li Auto demonstrated strong year-over-year growth in vehicle deliveries and maintained a leading market position. Despite quarter-over-quarter declines in revenue and deliveries due to seasonal factors, the company showed resilience with ongoing product innovations and network expansions, offsetting some challenges. The sentiment is balanced with both positive achievements and notable challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Vehicle Deliveries

Li Auto delivered over 92,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, marking an increase of 15.5% year-over-year. The company maintained a strong market presence with a 14.1% share in April.

Revenue and Market Leadership

The company achieved total revenues of RMB25.9 billion, with significant growth in the RMB200,000 and above NEV market in China, growing at twice the market rate.

Product Innovation and Launch

Launch of new models like Li MEGA Home and new Li L Series, featuring advanced technologies such as NVIDIA's Thor-U chip and ATL LiDAR sensors. Li MEGA Home accounted for over 90% of orders with a strong backlog.

Supercharging Network Expansion

Li Auto operates 2,350 supercharging stations and plans to increase this to 4,000 by the end of the year, covering extensive urban and highway networks.

Net Income Growth

Net income for the quarter was RMB646.6 million, up 9.4% year-over-year, despite a quarter-over-quarter decrease.

Negative Updates

Quarter-over-Quarter Revenue Decline

Total revenue decreased by 41.4% quarter-over-quarter, affected by seasonal factors related to the Chinese New Year holiday.

Decrease in Vehicle Deliveries

Vehicle sales revenue decreased by 22.1% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to a decrease in vehicle delivery.

Operating Margin Decrease

Operating margin was 1.0% in the first quarter, down from 8.4% in the prior quarter, despite an improvement from the negative margin in the same period last year.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow was negative RMB2.5 billion in the first quarter, although this was an improvement from the same period last year.

Company Guidance

During the first quarter of 2025, Li Auto delivered over 92,000 vehicles, marking a 15.5% year-over-year increase, and reported total revenues of RMB 25.9 billion. The company achieved a market-leading 14.1% market share in the RMB 200,000 and above NEV segment in China as of April. Li Auto's gross profit for the quarter was RMB 5.3 billion, with a gross margin of 20.5%. Vehicle deliveries for the second quarter are expected to be between 123,000 and 128,000 units, with anticipated revenues ranging from RMB 32.5 billion to RMB 33.8 billion, reflecting a 2.5% to 6.7% year-over-year increase. The company has also expanded its supercharging network to 2,350 stations and plans to grow this to 4,000 stations by the end of the year, supporting the upcoming launch of BEV models.

Li Auto Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Li Auto exhibits strong financial performance with robust revenue and profit growth, effective cost management, and solid cash flow generation. The balance sheet is stable, supporting future growth, though careful management of investment outflows is essential.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Li Auto has demonstrated robust revenue growth, transitioning from negative income to positive net income over recent years. The gross profit margin has been consistently strong, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin improved significantly, showcasing enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting solid operating performance. Continued revenue growth and profitability enhance the company's competitiveness in the auto manufacturing sector.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Li Auto shows a solid equity base with a strong equity ratio, suggesting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, highlighting a balanced leverage approach. Return on equity has improved as profitability increased, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital. The company's asset base is expanding, supporting future growth, while maintaining a healthy level of liabilities relative to assets.

Cash Flow

Positive

Li Auto's cash flows are strong, with consistent growth in operating cash flow and free cash flow, indicating efficient cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, highlighting the company's ability to convert income into cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved, reflecting better operational efficiency. However, significant investing cash outflows present potential risks if not managed carefully.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	144.75B	144.46B	123.85B	45.29B	27.01B	9.46B
Gross Profit	29.69B	29.66B	27.50B	8.79B	5.76B	1.55B
EBITDA	9.67B	8.82B	9.21B	-2.05B	500.83M	199.03M
Net Income	8.09B	8.03B	11.70B	-2.03B	-321.45M	-166.03M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	161.85B	162.35B	143.47B	86.54B	61.85B	36.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	110.68B	112.81B	103.26B	56.51B	47.52B	28.64B
Total Debt	16.36B	16.34B	13.55B	12.26B	7.84B	2.11B
Total Liabilities	89.53B	91.03B	82.89B	41.35B	20.78B	6.57B
Stockholders Equity	71.82B	70.87B	60.14B	44.86B	41.06B	29.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.82B	8.20B	44.19B	2.25B	4.90B	2.46B
Operating Cash Flow	17.57B	15.93B	50.69B	7.38B	8.34B	3.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-49.00B	-41.14B	-12.07M	-4.36B	-4.26B	-18.74B
Financing Cash Flow	-539.50M	-415.65M	185.38M	5.64B	16.71B	24.71B

Li Auto Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price26.14

Price Trends

50DMA

27.36

Negative

100DMA

26.76

Negative

200DMA

25.49

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.34

Positive

RSI

39.10

Neutral

STOCH

19.96

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.89, below the 50-day MA of 27.36, and above the 200-day MA of 25.49, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.34 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.96 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LI.

Li Auto Risk Analysis

Li Auto disclosed 110 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Li Auto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

We are a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq Stock Market Rules and, as a result, may rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements that provide protection to shareholders of other companies. Q4, 2023

We had net losses in the past, which may happen again in the future. Q4, 2023

We may face challenges in expanding our business and operations internationally and our ability to conduct business in international markets may be adversely affected by legal, regulatory, political, and economic risks. Q4, 2023

Li Auto Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (56)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LI	71 Outperform	$26.46B	24.76	12.22%	―	10.28%	-29.75%
Sector *	56 Neutral	$3.37B	4.05	-1.30%	6.64%	0.16%	-63.79%
XPEV	51 Neutral	$17.50B	―	-15.52%	―	50.45%	49.81%
RIVN	48 Neutral	$14.75B	―	-53.82%	―	0.58%	35.39%
LCID	45 Neutral	$6.59B	―	-50.06%	―	40.67%	3.40%
VFS	45 Neutral	$8.51B	―	36.15%	―	110.83%	-66.73%
NIO	41 Neutral	$7.09B	―	-240.42%	―	23.39%	3.93%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

Li Auto

25.94

5.48

26.78%

NIO

Nio

3.51

-1.11

-24.03%

XPEV

XPeng, Inc. ADR

18.85

10.93

138.01%

LCID

Lucid Group

2.16

-0.77

-26.28%

VFS

VinFast Auto

3.64

-0.68

-15.74%

RIVN

Rivian Automotive

13.07

-1.72

-11.63%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 01, 2025