Li Auto (LI) AI Stock Analysis

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Li Auto

(NASDAQ:LI)

Rating:67Neutral

Price Target:

$24.50

▲(2.17% Upside)

Li Auto's overall stock score is driven by strong financial performance and balanced earnings call sentiment. However, bearish technical indicators and valuation concerns moderate the score. The absence of a dividend yield and negative free cash flow are notable risks.

Positive Factors

Product Launch

Management plans to launch the i6, a 5-seater electric SUV with a unique design, long driving range, and more internal space, appealing to the younger generation.

Technology and Innovation

Li Auto intends to focus on reducing the number of SKUs and accelerating model updates and technology iterations to enhance competitiveness.

Negative Factors

Market Competition

Li Auto recently downgraded to Market-Perform amid concerns over rising EREV competition and a challenging BEV transition.

Market Share

Li Auto’s market share in the premium PHEV SUV segment fell from 72% in Q2 2023 to 34% in Q2 2025.

Sales and Growth Outlook

The company guided lower sales volume and gross profit margin in the upcoming quarter, indicating challenges in maintaining growth.

Li Auto (LI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$23.57B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)6.18M

Price to Earnings (P/E)22.9

Beta (1Y)0.87

Revenue Growth7.49%

EPS Growth-21.06%

CountryUS

Employees32,248

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength80

IndustryAuto - Manufacturers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.19

Shares Outstanding892,535,100

10 Day Avg. Volume7,845,201

30 Day Avg. Volume6,177,234

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.70

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.11

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.56

Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.61

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$26.12

Price Target Upside8.92% Upside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering13

Li Auto Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLi Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. It designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. The company's product line comprises MPVs and sport utility vehicles. It offers sales and after sales management, and technology development and corporate management services, as well as purchases manufacturing equipment. The company offers its products through online and offline channels. The company was formerly known as Leading Ideal Inc. and changed its name to Li Auto Inc. in July 2020. Li Auto Inc. was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

How the Company Makes MoneyLi Auto generates revenue primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles, particularly its Li ONE model, which is a premium extended-range electric SUV. The company's revenue model includes direct sales to customers, leveraging both physical retail locations and an online sales platform. In addition to vehicle sales, Li Auto may derive additional income from after-sales services, such as maintenance and repairs. The company also benefits from government incentives and subsidies for electric vehicle manufacturers, which help offset production costs and make their vehicles more competitive in the market. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and suppliers further enhance Li Auto's product offerings and operational efficiency, contributing to its overall revenue stream.

Li Auto Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Deliveries

Deliveries
Tracks the number of vehicles delivered to customers, indicating demand strength, production efficiency, and overall market penetration for Li Auto.

Chart InsightsLi Auto's vehicle deliveries have shown robust growth, with a notable increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. Despite a seasonal dip in Q1 2025, the company achieved a 15.5% year-over-year increase. The earnings call highlights strong market leadership and product innovation, with new models driving demand. However, quarter-over-quarter declines in revenue and deliveries, attributed to seasonal factors, suggest potential volatility. The expansion of the supercharging network and upcoming BEV models are strategic moves to sustain growth and market competitiveness.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Li Auto Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2025

(Q2-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Nov 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presents a mix of positive developments such as strong vehicle deliveries, successful product launches, and significant AI investments, offset by challenges like revenue decline year-over-year, sales system adjustments impacting performance, and negative free cash flow. The sentiment is balanced, reflecting both achievements and areas of concern.

Q2-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Vehicle Deliveries and Revenue

Li Auto delivered over 110,000 vehicles in Q2 2025, generating total revenues of RMB 30.2 billion, capturing a 13.4% market share in the RMB 200,000 and above NEV market in China.

Li MEGA and Li i8 Success

Li MEGA became the best-selling MPV priced above RMB 500,000, and Li i8 received positive feedback with a test drive satisfaction rate of over 97%. Cumulative deliveries of Li i8 are expected to exceed 8,000 units by the end of September.

Expansion of Charging Network

Li Auto operates more than 3,100 charging stations with over 17,000 charging stalls, aiming to reach 4,000 stations by the end of the year, supporting ultra-fast charging capability.

AI and R&D Investments

Li Auto expects AI investments to exceed RMB 6 billion, focusing on infrastructure, product, and technology development, with the rollout of proprietary VLA large model driver and Li Xiang Tong Xue Agent.

Financial Performance Improvement

Net income in the second quarter was RMB 1.1 billion, up 69.6% quarter-over-quarter, with operating income at RMB 827 million, up 76.7% year-over-year.

Negative Updates

Decline in Revenue Year-over-Year

Total revenue in Q2 2025 was down 4.5% year-over-year, and vehicle sales revenue was down 4.7% year-over-year, mainly due to lower average selling price and higher sales incentives.

Sales System Adjustments Impact

Sales fluctuations in Li L series due to sales and service system adjustments and other market factors impacted short-term sales performance.

Negative Free Cash Flow

Free cash flow was negative RMB 3.8 billion in Q2 2025, with cash used in operating activities at RMB 3 billion, indicating financial strain despite a strong cash position.

Projected Decrease in Q3 Deliveries and Revenue

The company expects Q3 2025 deliveries to be between 90,000 and 95,000 vehicles, with total revenues between RMB 24.8 billion and RMB 26.2 billion, reflecting a decrease from Q2.

Company Guidance

During the second quarter of 2025, Li Auto provided robust guidance, highlighting a delivery of over 110,000 vehicles, propelling total revenues to RMB 30.2 billion. The company secured a 13.4% market share in the RMB 200,000 and above NEV market in China, marking another quarter of leading segment sales among Chinese auto brands. The Li MEGA Home, launched in April, exceeded expectations with approximately 3,000 units sold monthly, becoming the top-selling MPV priced above RMB 500,000 since May 2025. Despite sales fluctuations with the Li L series, the company maintained a top 3 position in its market segment. Li Auto has ambitious plans for its newly launched Li i8, with expected cumulative deliveries to exceed 8,000 units by the end of September. Li Auto continues to expand its robust charging network, comprising more than 3,100 stations with over 17,000 stalls, aiming to reach 4,000 stations by year-end. The company plans to launch the Li i6 by the end of September and is committed to ongoing R&D investments, estimating AI investments to exceed RMB 6 billion for the year. For the third quarter, Li Auto anticipates delivering between 90,000 and 95,000 vehicles, with expected revenues between RMB 24.8 billion and RMB 26.2 billion.

Li Auto Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Li Auto demonstrates strong financial performance with robust revenue growth, improved profitability, and solid cash flow generation. The balance sheet is stable with a healthy equity base and moderate leverage. However, significant investing cash outflows present potential risks.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Li Auto has demonstrated robust revenue growth, transitioning from negative income to positive net income over recent years. The gross profit margin has been consistently strong, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin improved significantly, showcasing enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting solid operating performance. Continued revenue growth and profitability enhance the company's competitiveness in the auto manufacturing sector.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet of Li Auto shows a solid equity base with a strong equity ratio, suggesting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, highlighting a balanced leverage approach. Return on equity has improved as profitability increased, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital. The company's asset base is expanding, supporting future growth, while maintaining a healthy level of liabilities relative to assets.

Cash Flow

Positive

Li Auto's cash flows are strong, with consistent growth in operating cash flow and free cash flow, indicating efficient cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, highlighting the company's ability to convert income into cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved, reflecting better operational efficiency. However, significant investing cash outflows present potential risks if not managed carefully.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	144.75B	144.46B	123.85B	45.29B	27.01B	9.46B
Gross Profit	29.69B	29.66B	27.50B	8.79B	5.76B	1.55B
EBITDA	10.30B	12.56B	9.21B	-839.16M	500.83M	199.03M
Net Income	8.09B	8.03B	11.70B	-2.01B	-321.45M	-151.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	161.85B	162.35B	143.47B	86.54B	61.85B	36.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	110.68B	112.81B	103.26B	56.51B	47.52B	28.64B
Total Debt	16.36B	16.34B	13.55B	12.26B	7.84B	2.11B
Total Liabilities	89.53B	91.03B	82.89B	41.35B	20.78B	6.57B
Stockholders Equity	71.82B	70.87B	60.14B	44.86B	41.06B	29.80B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.84B	8.20B	44.19B	2.25B	4.90B	2.46B
Operating Cash Flow	17.57B	15.93B	50.69B	7.38B	8.34B	3.14B
Investing Cash Flow	-49.00B	-41.14B	-12.07M	-4.36B	-4.26B	-18.74B
Financing Cash Flow	-539.50M	-415.65M	185.38M	5.64B	16.71B	24.71B

Li Auto Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Neutral

Last Price23.98

Price Trends

50DMA

26.32

Negative

100DMA

26.58

Negative

200DMA

25.63

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.72

Negative

RSI

44.77

Neutral

STOCH

73.73

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 23.98 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.98, below the 50-day MA of 26.32, and below the 200-day MA of 25.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LI.

Li Auto Risk Analysis

Li Auto disclosed 110 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Li Auto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks

We are a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq Stock Market Rules and, as a result, may rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements that provide protection to shareholders of other companies. Q4, 2023

We had net losses in the past, which may happen again in the future. Q4, 2023

We may face challenges in expanding our business and operations internationally and our ability to conduct business in international markets may be adversely affected by legal, regulatory, political, and economic risks. Q4, 2023

Li Auto Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LI	67 Neutral	$23.57B	22.88	11.91%	―	7.49%	-21.06%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.96B	13.14	-5.36%	3.00%	1.25%	-13.95%
XPEV	55 Neutral	$20.26B	―	-13.34%	―	66.53%	48.17%
NIO	54 Neutral	$13.59B	―	-329.46%	―	9.60%	-5.91%
RIVN	49 Neutral	$16.83B	―	-54.42%	―	2.73%	45.63%
VFS	45 Neutral	$7.86B	―	36.15%	―	110.83%	-66.73%
LCID	43 Neutral	$5.43B	―	-54.39%	―	39.01%	7.12%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

Li Auto

23.98

5.12

27.15%

NIO

Nio

6.13

1.28

26.39%

XPEV

XPeng, Inc. ADR

19.84

11.01

124.69%

LCID

Lucid Group

16.16

-20.14

-55.48%

VFS

VinFast Auto

3.33

-0.37

-10.00%

RIVN

Rivian Automotive

13.70

-0.04

-0.29%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 28, 2025