Li Auto (LI)
NASDAQ:LI
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Li Auto
(NASDAQ:LI)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▲(8.75% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/12/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening 2025 operating results and a meaningful deterioration in cash generation, partially offset by a solid balance sheet. Technicals are moderately supportive in the short-to-medium term, but valuation is expensive (very high P/E) given recent profitability volatility. Earnings-call commentary is mixed, with credible product/AI and growth initiatives balanced against near-term margin and execution headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong cash position
A RMB 101.2 billion cash balance provides durable financial flexibility to fund R&D, product launches, buybacks, and working-capital needs over the next 2–6 months. It reduces near-term refinancing risk and supports execution of the AI and product roadmap while margins recover.
Negative Factors
Sharp revenue and profit decline
A 35% year-over-year revenue drop and steep YoY profit erosion signal a meaningful loss of scale. Reduced volumes weaken fixed-cost absorption and raise break-even risk; recovery hinges on successful new-model ramps and sustained demand improvements, which can take multiple quarters to materialize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash position
A RMB 101.2 billion cash balance provides durable financial flexibility to fund R&D, product launches, buybacks, and working-capital needs over the next 2–6 months. It reduces near-term refinancing risk and supports execution of the AI and product roadmap while margins recover.
Read all positive factors
Li Auto (LI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.21B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)109.0
Beta (1Y)0.79
Revenue Growth-22.18%
EPS Growth-86.28%
CountryUS
Employees32,248
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.04
Shares Outstanding904,211,850
10 Day Avg. Volume2,863,742
30 Day Avg. Volume3,332,593
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.27
Price to Book (P/B)1.64
Price to Sales (P/S)1.09
P/FCF Ratio-9.31
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.64
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.75
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda90.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$19.94Price Target Upside8.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$132.16B
Li Auto Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Li Auto Inc. operates in the energy vehicle market in the People's Republic of China. It designs, develops, manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. The company's product line comprises MPVs and sport utility vehicles. It offers sa...
How the Company Makes Money
Li Auto primarily makes money by selling vehicles, which historically represents the large majority of its revenue. Revenue is recognized from delivering Li-branded vehicles to customers, including the associated vehicle hardware and embedded soft...
Li Auto Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Deliveries
Tracks the number of vehicles delivered to customers, indicating demand strength, production efficiency, and overall market penetration for Li Auto.
Tracks the number of vehicles delivered to customers, indicating demand strength, production efficiency, and overall market penetration for Li Auto.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLi Auto Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Mixed. The call presented tangible operational and strategic positives: product pipeline momentum (all‑new L9 and M100 chip mass production), improving BEV customer satisfaction and orders, a strong cash balance (RMB 101.2 billion), sustained R&D/AI investment, and sequential improvements in revenue and gross profit. However, near‑term financials show material year‑over‑year deterioration (revenue down ~35%, gross profit down ~43%), a Q4 operating loss, compressed earnings, weaker YoY cash generation, elevated R&D spend, earlier BEV ramp/supply and margin headwinds, stiff competition and some senior R&D departures. The narrative emphasizes long‑term technology transformation and execution plans, but near‑term profitability and execution risks remain significant.Positive Updates
Sequential Revenue and Profit Improvement
Q4 total revenue RMB 28.8 billion, up 5.2% quarter-over-quarter; Q4 gross profit RMB 5.1 billion, up 14.8% quarter-over-quarter; gross margin improved to 17.8% from 16.3% in prior quarter.
Negative Updates
Significant Year‑over‑Year Revenue Decline
Q4 total revenue RMB 28.8 billion, down 35.0% year-over-year; vehicle sales RMB 27.3 billion, down 36.1% year-over-year, primarily due to lower vehicle deliveries.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sequential Revenue and Profit Improvement
Q4 total revenue RMB 28.8 billion, up 5.2% quarter-over-quarter; Q4 gross profit RMB 5.1 billion, up 14.8% quarter-over-quarter; gross margin improved to 17.8% from 16.3% in prior quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance included Q1 2026 deliveries of 85,000–90,000 vehicles and Q1 revenue of RMB 20.4–21.6 billion, a 2026 volume target of ~20% year‑over‑year growth, R&D guidance of ~RMB 12 billion with ~50% allocated to AI, and operational targets such as sustaining Li i6 at ~20,000 monthly sales and clearing its backlog within 1–2 months; product timing calls for the all‑new L9/L9 Livis launch in Q2 (L9 Livis priced at RMB 559,800) and the Li i9 in H2 2026, while the March 1 store‑partner program is expected to drive measurable store productivity improvements from Q3. Management also cited supporting metrics: year‑end cash of RMB 101.2 billion, 2025 R&D of RMB 11.3 billion (~50% AI), Li i8 NPS up >20% with orders +33% vs February and +179% vs January, M100 chips in mass production delivering ~6x effective compute versus prior 4U, >RMB 1,000 BOM savings per vehicle by removing the XCU, and end‑to‑end AV latency of ~200–300 ms to underpin margin recovery and "healthy" gross margins for new products.Li Auto Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
45
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 109.25B | 144.52B | 123.83B | 46.08B | 26.66B |
| Gross Profit | 20.41B | 29.67B | 27.49B | 8.81B | 5.55B |
| EBITDA | -967.65M | 12.57B | 12.32B | -853.90M | 494.34M |
| Net Income | 1.09B | 8.04B | 11.70B | -2.05B | -317.29M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 154.39B | 162.35B | 143.47B | 86.54B | 61.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 101.30B | 112.81B | 103.26B | 56.51B | 47.52B |
| Total Debt | 17.83B | 16.34B | 13.55B | 12.26B | 7.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 81.21B | 91.03B | 82.89B | 41.35B | 20.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 72.67B | 70.87B | 60.14B | 44.86B | 41.06B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -12.82B | 8.20B | 44.19B | 2.25B | 4.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -8.61B | 15.93B | 50.69B | 7.38B | 8.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -703.13M | -41.14B | -12.07M | -4.36B | -4.26B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 767.40M | -415.65M | 185.38M | 5.64B | 16.71B |
Li Auto Technical Analysis
Neutral
18.39
Price Trends
18.05
Positive
17.57
Positive
20.93
Negative
Market Momentum
0.23
Negative
52.64
Neutral
21.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 18.39 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.13, above the 50-day MA of 18.05, and below the 200-day MA of 20.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LI.
Li Auto Risk Analysis
Li Auto disclosed 110 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Li Auto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We are a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq Stock Market Rules and, as a result, may rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements that provide protection to shareholders of other companies. Q4, 2023
2.
We had net losses in the past, which may happen again in the future. Q4, 2023
3.
We may face challenges in expanding our business and operations internationally and our ability to conduct business in international markets may be adversely affected by legal, regulatory, political, and economic risks. Q4, 2023
Li Auto Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $18.21B | 109.05 | 1.55% | ― | -22.18% | -86.28% | |
56 Neutral | $15.53B | 79.91 | -984.82% | ― | 33.72% | 36.29% | |
53 Neutral | $15.65B | -60.90 | -3.77% | ― | 88.10% | 80.63% | |
47 Neutral | $2.06B | -1.22 | -133.09% | ― | 67.58% | 7.56% | |
47 Neutral | $10.20B | -2.12 | 57.07% | ― | 97.73% | -20.91% | |
47 Neutral | $20.50B | -7.49 | -66.53% | ― | 8.39% | 35.08% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LI
Li Auto
18.13
-6.17
-25.39%
NIO
Nio
6.21
1.90
44.08%
XPEV
XPeng, Inc. ADR
16.66
-3.27
-16.41%
LCID
Lucid Group
6.25
-19.05
-75.30%
VFS
VinFast Auto
4.36
1.02
30.54%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
16.52
3.33
25.25%
Li Auto Corporate Events
Li Auto Files 2025 ESG, Climate, and Hong Kong Annual Reports With U.S. SEC
Apr 10, 2026
Li Auto Inc. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for April 2026, dated April 10, 2026, providing investors with key 2025 corporate reports. The submission includes its 2025 Environmental, Social and Governance Report,...
Li Auto Details March 2026 Share Movements, Buybacks and Incentive Plan Activity in Form 6-K
Apr 9, 2026
On April 9, 2026, Li Auto Inc. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a corresponding monthly return with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange detailing share capital movements for March 2026. The filing shows total authoris...
Li Auto Reports March 27 Share Buyback Under Ongoing Repurchase Mandate
Apr 8, 2026
Li Auto disclosed that on March 27, 2026 it repurchased 340,000 Class A WVR ordinary shares on the Nasdaq Global Select Market at prices between US$8.785 and US$8.945, for a total outlay of about US$3.02 million, and is holding all of these as tre...
Li Auto Reports Late-March 2026 Share Buybacks on Nasdaq and Hong Kong
Mar 30, 2026
Li Auto disclosed that it filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 30, 2026, detailing its routine submission of Hong Kong Next Day Disclosure Returns and recent changes in its issued and treasury share balances. ...
Li Auto Posts February 2026 Deliveries and Expands Charging, Retail Network
Mar 2, 2026
Li Auto reported that it delivered 26,421 vehicles in February 2026, bringing cumulative deliveries to 1,594,304 as of February 28, 2026, underscoring its scale in China’s competitive new energy vehicle sector. The company also highlighted i...
Li Auto Reports Stable Share Capital Structure in January 2026 Hong Kong Monthly Return
Feb 6, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Li Auto Inc. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission noting that it had submitted a monthly return to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on February 5, 2026, covering movements in its share capital for the ...
Li Auto Posts 27,668 Vehicle Deliveries in January 2026 as Network and Software Capabilities Expand
Feb 2, 2026
Li Auto reported that it delivered 27,668 vehicles in January 2026, bringing its cumulative deliveries to 1,567,883 as of January 31, 2026, underscoring its growing scale in China’s competitive new energy vehicle market. During the month, th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.