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Li Auto (LI)
NASDAQ:LI
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Li Auto
(NASDAQ:LI)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(15.06%Upside)
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Li Auto reported a GAAP net profit that surpassed analyst expectations mainly due to higher vehicle sales.
Product Launch
The quality execution of Li Auto's team, lessons learnt from the Mega launch last year and likely more competitive pricing could result in an upside surprise from the upcoming I8.
Sales Strategy
The revamped Li Mega has a strong order backlog and is ramping up production capacity.
Negative Factors
Market Competition
Escalating price competition and Beijing’s intervention have left some consumers hesitant.
Sales Performance
The underperformance was attributable to slower MTD sales, tracking behind the company’s 2Q volume guidance.
Shareholder Concerns
Investors were concerned about the holdings reduction of major shareholder Meituan's Wang Xing.
Li Auto (LI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$31.00B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.8
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth10.28%
EPS Growth-29.75%
CountryUS
Employees32,248
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength71
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding892,535,100
10 Day Avg. Volume5,343,952
30 Day Avg. Volume4,425,648
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio51.49
Price to Book (P/B)2.89
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio17.68
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$33.30Price Target Upside9.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Li Auto Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionLi Auto Inc. (LI) is a leading Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer specializing in the design, development, manufacturing, and sales of smart electric SUVs. The company primarily focuses on producing vehicles with range extension systems, which combine an electric powertrain with a fuel-efficient internal combustion engine to enhance range performance. Li Auto aims to provide families with safe, convenient, and environmentally friendly transportation solutions, integrating advanced technologies and innovative design to improve the user experience.
How the Company Makes MoneyLi Auto generates revenue primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles, particularly its Li ONE model, which is a premium extended-range electric SUV. The company's revenue model includes direct sales to customers, leveraging both physical retail locations and an online sales platform. In addition to vehicle sales, Li Auto may derive additional income from after-sales services, such as maintenance and repairs. The company also benefits from government incentives and subsidies for electric vehicle manufacturers, which help offset production costs and make their vehicles more competitive in the market. Strategic partnerships with technology providers and suppliers further enhance Li Auto's product offerings and operational efficiency, contributing to its overall revenue stream.
Li Auto Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Deliveries
Tracks the number of vehicles delivered to customers, indicating demand strength, production efficiency, and overall market penetration for Li Auto.
Tracks the number of vehicles delivered to customers, indicating demand strength, production efficiency, and overall market penetration for Li Auto.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataLi Auto Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 29, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 9.03%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Li Auto demonstrated strong year-over-year growth in vehicle deliveries and maintained a leading market position. Despite quarter-over-quarter declines in revenue and deliveries due to seasonal factors, the company showed resilience with ongoing product innovations and network expansions, offsetting some challenges. The sentiment is balanced with both positive achievements and notable challenges.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Vehicle Deliveries
Li Auto delivered over 92,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, marking an increase of 15.5% year-over-year. The company maintained a strong market presence with a 14.1% share in April.
Revenue and Market Leadership
The company achieved total revenues of RMB25.9 billion, with significant growth in the RMB200,000 and above NEV market in China, growing at twice the market rate.
Product Innovation and Launch
Launch of new models like Li MEGA Home and new Li L Series, featuring advanced technologies such as NVIDIA's Thor-U chip and ATL LiDAR sensors. Li MEGA Home accounted for over 90% of orders with a strong backlog.
Supercharging Network Expansion
Li Auto operates 2,350 supercharging stations and plans to increase this to 4,000 by the end of the year, covering extensive urban and highway networks.
Net Income Growth
Net income for the quarter was RMB646.6 million, up 9.4% year-over-year, despite a quarter-over-quarter decrease.
Negative Updates
Quarter-over-Quarter Revenue Decline
Total revenue decreased by 41.4% quarter-over-quarter, affected by seasonal factors related to the Chinese New Year holiday.
Decrease in Vehicle Deliveries
Vehicle sales revenue decreased by 22.1% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to a decrease in vehicle delivery.
Operating Margin Decrease
Operating margin was 1.0% in the first quarter, down from 8.4% in the prior quarter, despite an improvement from the negative margin in the same period last year.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Free cash flow was negative RMB2.5 billion in the first quarter, although this was an improvement from the same period last year.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, Li Auto delivered over 92,000 vehicles, marking a 15.5% year-over-year increase, and reported total revenues of RMB 25.9 billion. The company achieved a market-leading 14.1% market share in the RMB 200,000 and above NEV segment in China as of April. Li Auto's gross profit for the quarter was RMB 5.3 billion, with a gross margin of 20.5%. Vehicle deliveries for the second quarter are expected to be between 123,000 and 128,000 units, with anticipated revenues ranging from RMB 32.5 billion to RMB 33.8 billion, reflecting a 2.5% to 6.7% year-over-year increase. The company has also expanded its supercharging network to 2,350 stations and plans to grow this to 4,000 stations by the end of the year, supporting the upcoming launch of BEV models.Li Auto Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Li Auto has showcased strong financial performance with robust revenue and profit growth. The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a healthy equity base and improved return on equity. Cash flow generation is efficient, despite significant investing cash outflows, indicating strong operational efficiency and financial stability.Income Statement
Li Auto has demonstrated robust revenue growth, transitioning from negative income to positive net income over recent years. The gross profit margin has been consistently strong, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin improved significantly, showcasing enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, reflecting solid operating performance. Continued revenue growth and profitability enhance the company's competitiveness in the auto manufacturing sector.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Li Auto shows a solid equity base with a strong equity ratio, suggesting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is moderate, highlighting a balanced leverage approach. Return on equity has improved as profitability increased, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital. The company's asset base is expanding, supporting future growth, while maintaining a healthy level of liabilities relative to assets.80
Positive
Cash Flow
Li Auto's cash flows are strong, with consistent growth in operating cash flow and free cash flow, indicating efficient cash generation. The free cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, highlighting the company's ability to convert income into cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio improved, reflecting better operational efficiency. However, significant investing cash outflows present potential risks if not managed carefully.78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 144.46B | 123.85B | 45.29B | 27.01B | 9.46B |
| Gross Profit | 29.66B | 27.50B | 8.79B | 5.76B | 1.55B |
| EBITDA | 12.56B | 9.21B | -839.16M | 500.83M | 199.03M |
| Net Income | 8.03B | 11.70B | -2.01B | -321.45M | -151.66M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 162.35B | 143.47B | 86.54B | 61.85B | 36.37B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 112.81B | 103.26B | 56.51B | 47.52B | 28.64B |
| Total Debt | 16.34B | 13.55B | 12.26B | 7.84B | 2.11B |
| Total Liabilities | 91.03B | 82.89B | 41.35B | 20.78B | 6.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 70.87B | 60.14B | 44.86B | 41.06B | 29.80B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.20B | 44.19B | 2.25B | 4.90B | 2.46B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 15.93B | 50.69B | 7.38B | 8.34B | 3.14B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -41.14B | -12.07M | -4.36B | -4.26B | -18.74B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -415.65M | 185.38M | 5.64B | 16.71B | 24.71B |
Li Auto Technical Analysis
Positive
30.42
Price Trends
28.44
Positive
26.97
Positive
25.83
Positive
Market Momentum
0.78
Negative
54.93
Neutral
58.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.44, above the 50-day MA of 28.44, and above the 200-day MA of 25.83, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LI.
Li Auto Risk Analysis
Li Auto disclosed 110 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Li Auto reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
We are a “controlled company” within the meaning of the Nasdaq Stock Market Rules and, as a result, may rely on exemptions from certain corporate governance requirements that provide protection to shareholders of other companies. Q4, 2023
2.
We had net losses in the past, which may happen again in the future. Q4, 2023
3.
We may face challenges in expanding our business and operations internationally and our ability to conduct business in international markets may be adversely affected by legal, regulatory, political, and economic risks. Q4, 2023
Li Auto Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $31.00B | 28.82 | 12.22% | ― | 10.28% | -29.75% | |
62 Neutral | C$5.29B | 8.93 | 20.23% | 3.14% | 3.09% | 8.49% | |
56 Neutral | $9.12B | ― | -50.06% | ― | 40.67% | 3.40% | |
54 Neutral | $10.07B | ― | -240.42% | ― | 23.39% | 3.93% | |
53 Neutral | $16.07B | ― | -53.82% | ― | 0.58% | 35.39% | |
51 Neutral | $17.96B | ― | -15.52% | ― | 50.45% | 49.81% | |
48 Neutral | $8.56B | ― | 36.15% | ― | 110.83% | -66.73% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
LI
Li Auto
29.59
10.39
54.11%
NIO
Nio
4.83
0.56
13.11%
XPEV
XPeng, Inc. ADR
19.13
10.93
133.29%
LCID
Lucid Group
2.99
-0.47
-13.58%
VFS
VinFast Auto
3.54
-0.58
-14.08%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
13.82
-2.43
-14.95%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.