Nio (NIO)
NYSE:NIO
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Nio
(NYSE:NIO)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-30.77% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:11/25/25
Nio's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance, which is weighed down by high leverage and negative profitability. While the earnings call provided some positive insights with strong delivery growth and improved margins, the technical analysis and valuation remain weak, reflecting ongoing challenges.
Positive Factors
Delivery Scale and Market Traction
Sustained double-digit annual delivery growth and near‑million cumulative deliveries signal expanding scale and brand traction. Larger volume supports manufacturing learning curves, stronger supplier leverage and durable market share gains in the premium EV segment over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
Very high leverage and a thin equity base materially raise financial risk in a capital‑intensive industry. Elevated debt limits flexibility for capex, geographic expansion or margin cushion during downturns and increases refinancing and interest burden over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Delivery Scale and Market Traction
Sustained double-digit annual delivery growth and near‑million cumulative deliveries signal expanding scale and brand traction. Larger volume supports manufacturing learning curves, stronger supplier leverage and durable market share gains in the premium EV segment over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nio (NIO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$13.97B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)47.18M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth14.94%
EPS Growth2.53%
CountryUS
Employees45,635
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding2,099,062,700
10 Day Avg. Volume42,652,546
30 Day Avg. Volume47,181,962
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.25
Price to Book (P/B)10.96
Price to Sales (P/S)0.99
P/FCF Ratio-3.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.54
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.58
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.46Price Target Upside-0.62% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$129.38B
Nio Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China. It offers five and six-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company also offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging sol...
How the Company Makes Money
Nio generates revenue primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles, which include models like the ES8, ES6, and EC6. The company's revenue model is complemented by its innovative battery-as-a-service (BaaS) offering, allowing customers to p...
Nio Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Vehicles Delivered
Shows the number of vehicles sold to customers, indicating market demand, production capacity, and sales performance. A key indicator of growth trajectory and competitive position in the electric vehicle market.
Shows the number of vehicles sold to customers, indicating market demand, production capacity, and sales performance. A key indicator of growth trajectory and competitive position in the electric vehicle market.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNio Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a strong operational and financial turnaround: record deliveries, sharp revenue growth (+75.9% YoY in Q4), first quarterly GAAP and non-GAAP operating profits, significant margin improvement and successful tech and infrastructure milestones (mass-production 5nm chip, NWM rollout, 100M cumulative swaps). Management also presented disciplined cost controls (R&D and SG&A declines) and a confident volume outlook (40%–50% YoY for 2026 with Q1 guidance implying ~+90% YoY). Key risks include emerging raw-material and chip cost inflation, near-term losses from infrastructure investments, escalating related-party receivables/payables, and macro/geopolitical uncertainty. On balance the positive operational progress, profitability inflection and technology validation outweigh the headwinds, but execution and cost volatility remain meaningful risks.Positive Updates
Record Deliveries and Strong Volume Growth
Q4 2025 deliveries: 124,807 vehicles, up 71.7% year-over-year; Full year 2025 deliveries: 326,028 vehicles, up 46.9% year-over-year. January and February 2026 deliveries were 27,182 and 20,797 respectively. Q1 2026 guidance: 80,000–83,000 vehicles, implying +90.1% to +97.2% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Raw Material and Chip Cost Inflation
Management reports rising costs and volatility in memory chips, lithium carbonate and other raw materials. Impact began to be felt in Q1 2026 and could intensify in Q2, creating uncertainty for vehicle cost structure and margins despite current mitigation efforts.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Deliveries and Strong Volume Growth
Q4 2025 deliveries: 124,807 vehicles, up 71.7% year-over-year; Full year 2025 deliveries: 326,028 vehicles, up 46.9% year-over-year. January and February 2026 deliveries were 27,182 and 20,797 respectively. Q1 2026 guidance: 80,000–83,000 vehicles, implying +90.1% to +97.2% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided Q1 2026 deliveries to 80,000–83,000 vehicles (a year‑over‑year increase of 90.1%–97.2%), reiterated a full‑year volume growth target of 40%–50%, and said Q1 vehicle gross margin should be roughly flat versus Q4 2025 (Q4 vehicle margin was 18.1% and overall gross margin 17.5%); management expects to maintain quarterly R&D spending around RMB 2.0–2.5 billion and to keep SG&A controlled at no more than ~10% of revenue, while targeting full‑year non‑GAAP operating profit breakeven in 2026. Operationally, NIO plans to add about 1,000 power swap stations in 2026 (from 3,815 today) and expand its charging network (over 28,000 chargers now), roll out two major NWM/world‑model releases (Q2 and Q4) after a >80% month‑over‑month increase in Smart Driving usage in February, and leverage Shenji’s RMB 2.257 billion financing (post‑money valuation >RMB 8 billion) as it scales in‑house chips—all backed by Q4 results of 124,807 deliveries (Q4 YoY +71.7%), RMB 34.7 billion revenue (+75.9% YoY), RMB 1.25 billion adjusted operating profit, positive free cash flow for two consecutive quarters, and RMB 45.9 billion in cash and equivalents.Nio Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 69.42B | 65.73B | 55.62B | 49.27B | 36.14B | 16.26B |
| Gross Profit | 7.13B | 6.49B | 3.05B | 5.14B | 6.82B | 1.87B |
| EBITDA | -22.99B | -13.93B | -15.15B | -10.05B | -985.36M | -3.33B |
| Net Income | -24.31B | -22.66B | -21.15B | -14.56B | -10.57B | -5.61B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 100.05B | 107.60B | 117.38B | 96.26B | 82.88B | 54.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.80B | 22.09B | 49.75B | 39.06B | 52.39B | 42.38B |
| Total Debt | 30.96B | 33.82B | 34.73B | 23.71B | 20.10B | 9.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 93.43B | 94.10B | 87.79B | 68.62B | 48.10B | 27.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.21B | 5.97B | 25.55B | 23.87B | 34.71B | 27.17B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -16.50B | -16.99B | -15.72B | -10.84B | -2.11B | 823.21M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -8.75B | -7.85B | -1.38B | -3.87B | 1.97B | 1.95B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.27B | -4.96B | -10.89B | 10.39B | -39.76B | -5.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.10B | 1.77B | 27.66B | -1.62B | 18.13B | 41.36B |
Nio Technical Analysis
Positive
6.50
Price Trends
5.34
Positive
5.20
Positive
5.53
Positive
Market Momentum
0.28
Negative
62.89
Neutral
78.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.93, above the 50-day MA of 5.34, and above the 200-day MA of 5.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NIO.
Nio Risk Analysis
Nio disclosed 122 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nio reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nio Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $19.34B | 109.05 | 1.55% | ― | -9.99% | -54.75% | |
51 Neutral | $9.80B | -2.12 | 57.07% | ― | 74.91% | -43.10% | |
50 Neutral | $16.35B | -60.90 | -3.77% | ― | 86.57% | 51.35% | |
47 Neutral | $2.81B | -1.22 | -133.09% | ― | 45.86% | 22.13% | |
47 Neutral | $19.15B | -7.49 | -66.53% | ― | 28.21% | 44.43% | |
45 Neutral | $13.97B | -5.57 | -984.82% | ― | 14.94% | 2.53% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
NIO
Nio
6.50
2.89
80.06%
LI
Li Auto
19.21
-4.64
-19.45%
XPEV
XPeng, Inc. ADR
17.42
-3.66
-17.36%
LCID
Lucid Group
8.58
-16.72
-66.09%
VFS
VinFast Auto
4.19
1.19
39.67%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
15.43
3.40
28.26%
Nio Corporate Events
NIO Near-Double January Deliveries and Surpass One Million EVs as New Driving AI Rolls Out
Feb 2, 2026
In January 2026, NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles, a 96.1% year-on-year increase, with 20,894 units from its premium NIO brand, 3,481 from its family-focused ONVO line and 2,807 from its FIREFLY small high-end EV brand, bringing cumulative deliveries...
NIO Sets Record Deliveries in December and Full Year 2025, Nears 1 Million EVs Sold
Jan 2, 2026
On January 1, 2026, NIO reported that it delivered 48,135 vehicles in December 2025, a record monthly volume and a 54.6% year-on-year increase, with contributions from its NIO, ONVO and FIREFLY brands; fourth-quarter 2025 deliveries rose 71.7% yea...
NIO Achieves Record Vehicle Deliveries in October 2025
Nov 3, 2025
In October 2025, NIO Inc. achieved a record-high monthly delivery of 40,397 vehicles, marking a 92.6% increase year-over-year. The company’s cumulative deliveries reached 913,182 vehicles by the end of October. The ONVO L90, a flagship SUV, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.