Nio (NIO) AI Stock Analysis

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Nio

(NYSE:NIO)

Rating:54Neutral

Price Target:

$5.00

▲(3.52%Upside)

Nio's stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including high leverage and negative profitability, which are major risks. However, positive market momentum and strategic initiatives from the earnings call offer potential growth opportunities. The valuation remains unattractive due to ongoing losses.

Positive Factors

Car Deliveries

NIO targets 72-75k units of car delivery, showing a significant increase in both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter figures.

Cost Optimization

The company's strategy includes a shift to in-house semiconductors, which is expected to drive significant cost savings on Nio-brand models.

Model Launches

Nio is expected to launch new models much earlier than consensus expected, with lower BOM cost and cost saving synergy going forward.

Negative Factors

Competition

The company faces strong competition in the Chinese market, which may limit its sales growth despite new model launches.

Financial Performance

Operational loss was higher than forecasted, indicating financial challenges in the recent quarter.

Profit Margins

Current gross margins are weaker than expected due to higher manufacturing costs, impacting profitability.

Nio (NIO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$10.07B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)51.52M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.07

Revenue Growth23.39%

EPS Growth3.93%

CountryUS

Employees45,635

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength71

IndustryAuto - Manufacturers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.42

Shares Outstanding1,946,478,900

10 Day Avg. Volume96,951,321

30 Day Avg. Volume51,518,916

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.46

Price to Book (P/B)-198.01

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$4.50

Price Target Upside-6.83% Downside

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering9

Nio Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNio Inc. is a pioneering Chinese electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer that focuses on designing and developing smart, premium electric cars. Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Shanghai, Nio operates in the automotive and technology sectors. The company's core products include electric SUVs and sedans, featuring advanced battery technology, autonomous driving capabilities, and a robust digital ecosystem.

How the Company Makes MoneyNio makes money primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles. Its revenue model is centered around the production and delivery of premium electric cars, which include the ES8, ES6, and EC6 models, among others. The company also generates income from offering various services such as battery swapping, charging solutions, and vehicle maintenance. Nio has developed a unique 'Battery as a Service' (BaaS) model that allows customers to subscribe to battery usage, providing a recurring revenue stream. Additionally, Nio engages in partnerships and collaborations with technology firms to enhance its vehicles' autonomous driving technology and connectivity features, further contributing to its revenue.

Nio Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Vehicles Delivered

Vehicles Delivered
Shows the number of vehicles sold to customers, indicating market demand, production capacity, and sales performance. A key indicator of growth trajectory and competitive position in the electric vehicle market.

Chart InsightsNio's vehicle deliveries show a robust upward trend, with a significant spike in Q3 2023 and continued growth into 2024. The latest earnings call highlights a strategic focus on new model launches and technological advancements, which are expected to sustain this momentum. Despite a quarterly revenue decline due to seasonality, Nio is implementing cost control measures and expanding internationally, aiming for profitability by Q4 2025. The projected delivery growth for Q2 2025 indicates strong demand, potentially offsetting recent financial challenges.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

Nio Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 03, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 37.22%|

Next Earnings Date:Sep 04, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

NIO reported growth in vehicle deliveries and technological advancements, with new models expected to drive future growth. However, the company faced significant quarterly revenue decline and increased net loss. Cost control measures are in place, but challenges remain. The sentiment is mixed with both positive and negative aspects.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Increase in Smart EV Deliveries

NIO delivered 42,094 smart EVs in Q1 2025, marking a 4.1% year-over-year increase. Deliveries for Q2 are projected to grow by 25.5% to 30.7% year over year.

New Model Launches

NIO successfully launched and delivered new models including ES6, EC6, ET5, and ET5P in late May, expected to drive significant growth in future quarters.

Technological Advancements

NIO's smart driving chip NS9031 has been deployed across several models, enhancing product competitiveness and vehicle cost structure.

Successful Hong Kong Share Offering

NIO completed a share offering in Hong Kong, raising over 4,000,000,000 Hong Kong dollars, attracting global long-term investors.

Operational Efficiency and Cost Reduction

Continued efforts in cost reduction and operational efficiency improvements have led to an increase in vehicle and overall gross margin.

Negative Updates

Quarterly Revenue Decline

Total revenues decreased by 38.9% quarter over quarter, with vehicle sales down 43.1% quarter over quarter due to seasonality.

Increased Net Loss

Net loss increased by 30.2% year over year, despite a decrease from the previous quarter.

Operational Challenges in Cost Management

Efforts to control costs have been implemented, but challenges remain in balancing operational efficiency with maintaining sales and marketing activities.

Company Guidance

During NIO Inc.'s First Quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided a comprehensive overview of its performance and future outlook. The company delivered 42,094 smart EVs in Q1 2025, marking a 4.1% year-over-year increase. NIO anticipates Q2 deliveries to be between 147,000 units, reflecting a 25.5% to 30.7% growth year-over-year. Financially, total revenues for Q1 reached 12 billion RMB, a 21.5% increase compared to the previous year, although vehicle sales decreased by 43.1% quarter-over-quarter due to seasonality. Vehicle gross margin improved to 10.2% from 9.2% the previous year. The company implemented cost control measures, aiming for R&D expenses to decrease by 15% in Q2 and achieve a 20-25% reduction by Q4. NIO's strategic initiatives include launching new models, enhancing operational efficiency, and expanding its charging network, with the goal of achieving profitability by Q4 2025. The company also highlights its international expansion efforts, with plans for the Firefly brand to enter several European markets.

Nio Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nio faces significant financial challenges with negative EBIT and net income, high leverage, and negative cash flows. The company's revenue growth is a positive aspect, but the overall financial risk is high due to low profitability and a high debt-to-equity ratio.

Income Statement

Neutral

Nio shows consistent revenue growth with a 18.2% increase from 2023 to 2024. However, profitability remains a challenge as evidenced by negative EBIT and net income. The gross profit margin stands at 9.9% in 2024, down from 5.5% in 2023, indicating some improvement but still low for the industry.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.67 in 2024, up significantly from 1.98 in 2023. Stockholders' equity has decreased, and the equity ratio is only 5.5%, suggesting increased financial risk. Return on equity is negative due to ongoing losses.

Cash Flow

Negative

Operating cash flow is negative, reflecting operational challenges. Free cash flow also remains negative, with a decline from 2023 to 2024, indicating strained liquidity. The ratio of operating cash flow to net income is below 1, suggesting inefficiency in converting income into cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	65.73B	55.62B	49.27B	36.14B	16.26B
Gross Profit	6.49B	3.05B	5.14B	6.82B	1.87B
EBITDA	-13.93B	-15.15B	-12.79B	-985.36M	-3.33B
Net Income	-22.66B	-21.15B	-14.44B	-4.02B	-5.30B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	107.60B	117.38B	96.26B	82.88B	54.64B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.09B	49.75B	39.06B	52.39B	39.51B
Total Debt	33.82B	34.73B	23.71B	20.10B	9.43B
Total Liabilities	94.10B	87.79B	68.62B	44.82B	27.47B
Stockholders Equity	5.97B	25.55B	23.87B	34.71B	27.17B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-16.99B	-15.72B	-10.84B	-2.11B	823.21M
Operating Cash Flow	-7.85B	-1.38B	-3.87B	1.97B	1.95B
Investing Cash Flow	-4.96B	-10.89B	10.39B	-39.76B	-5.07B
Financing Cash Flow	1.77B	27.66B	-1.62B	18.13B	41.36B

Nio Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price4.83

Price Trends

50DMA

3.81

Positive

100DMA

3.95

Positive

200DMA

4.34

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

0.32

Negative

RSI

73.12

Negative

STOCH

81.82

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.97, above the 50-day MA of 3.81, and above the 200-day MA of 4.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.12 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.82 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NIO.

Nio Risk Analysis

Nio disclosed 122 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nio reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Nio Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (62)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LI	74 Outperform	$31.00B	28.82	12.22%	―	10.28%	-29.75%
Sector *	62 Neutral	C$5.29B	8.93	20.23%	3.14%	3.09%	8.49%
LCID	56 Neutral	$9.12B	―	-50.06%	―	40.67%	3.40%
NIO	54 Neutral	$10.07B	―	-240.42%	―	23.39%	3.93%
RIVN	53 Neutral	$16.07B	―	-53.82%	―	0.58%	35.39%
XPEV	51 Neutral	$17.96B	―	-15.52%	―	50.45%	49.81%
VFS	48 Neutral	$8.28B	―	36.15%	―	110.83%	-66.73%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NIO

Nio

4.83

0.40

9.03%

Li Auto

29.59

10.45

54.60%

XPEV

XPeng, Inc. ADR

19.13

10.62

124.79%

LCID

Lucid Group

2.99

-0.39

-11.54%

VFS

VinFast Auto

3.54

-0.59

-14.29%

RIVN

Rivian Automotive

13.82

-2.39

-14.74%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 23, 2025