Nio Inc (NIO)
NYSE:NIO
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Nio
(NYSE:NIO)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▼(-4.83% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/16/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals—persistent losses, negative free cash flow, and significantly higher leverage—despite improving revenue/margins and a rebound in operating cash flow. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading above major moving averages and positive MACD, and the latest earnings call reinforced a near-term volume ramp and profitability progress, but valuation remains constrained by negative earnings and there is no dividend support.
Positive Factors
Strong delivery and revenue growth
Sustained, broad-based volume expansion and sharply higher revenue demonstrate durable demand and scale economics. Higher deliveries increase fixed-cost absorption and support continued revenue growth over the next 2–6 months, underpinning improving unit economics as product mix and brand coverage expand.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and weakened equity cushion
Significantly higher leverage reduces financial flexibility to fund expansion and makes the company more vulnerable to macro shocks or execution slips. A thin equity base raises refinancing and covenant risks over the next several quarters, constraining strategic optionality for capex and M&A.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong delivery and revenue growth
Sustained, broad-based volume expansion and sharply higher revenue demonstrate durable demand and scale economics. Higher deliveries increase fixed-cost absorption and support continued revenue growth over the next 2–6 months, underpinning improving unit economics as product mix and brand coverage expand.
Read all positive factors
Nio (NIO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.54B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)45.63M
Price to Earnings (P/E)79.9
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth33.72%
EPS Growth36.29%
CountryUS
Employees45,635
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding2,099,062,700
10 Day Avg. Volume39,474,562
30 Day Avg. Volume45,629,946
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)19.47
Price to Sales (P/S)0.95
P/FCF Ratio-26.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.64
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit14.47
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-4.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.43Price Target Upside-5.88% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-1.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$131.65B
Nio Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China. It offers five and six-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. The company also offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging sol...
How the Company Makes Money
Nio primarily makes money by selling electric vehicles and related automotive offerings, with additional revenue from services and other business activities.
1) Vehicle sales (automotive revenue)
- The largest revenue stream is the sale of NIO-br...
Nio Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Vehicles Delivered
Shows the number of vehicles sold to customers, indicating market demand, production capacity, and sales performance. A key indicator of growth trajectory and competitive position in the electric vehicle market.
Shows the number of vehicles sold to customers, indicating market demand, production capacity, and sales performance. A key indicator of growth trajectory and competitive position in the electric vehicle market.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyNio Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted a strong operational and financial turnaround: record deliveries, sharp revenue growth (+75.9% YoY in Q4), first quarterly GAAP and non-GAAP operating profits, significant margin improvement and successful tech and infrastructure milestones (mass-production 5nm chip, NWM rollout, 100M cumulative swaps). Management also presented disciplined cost controls (R&D and SG&A declines) and a confident volume outlook (40%–50% YoY for 2026 with Q1 guidance implying ~+90% YoY). Key risks include emerging raw-material and chip cost inflation, near-term losses from infrastructure investments, escalating related-party receivables/payables, and macro/geopolitical uncertainty. On balance the positive operational progress, profitability inflection and technology validation outweigh the headwinds, but execution and cost volatility remain meaningful risks.Positive Updates
Record Deliveries and Strong Volume Growth
Q4 2025 deliveries: 124,807 vehicles, up 71.7% year-over-year; Full year 2025 deliveries: 326,028 vehicles, up 46.9% year-over-year. January and February 2026 deliveries were 27,182 and 20,797 respectively. Q1 2026 guidance: 80,000–83,000 vehicles, implying +90.1% to +97.2% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Raw Material and Chip Cost Inflation
Management reports rising costs and volatility in memory chips, lithium carbonate and other raw materials. Impact began to be felt in Q1 2026 and could intensify in Q2, creating uncertainty for vehicle cost structure and margins despite current mitigation efforts.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Deliveries and Strong Volume Growth
Q4 2025 deliveries: 124,807 vehicles, up 71.7% year-over-year; Full year 2025 deliveries: 326,028 vehicles, up 46.9% year-over-year. January and February 2026 deliveries were 27,182 and 20,797 respectively. Q1 2026 guidance: 80,000–83,000 vehicles, implying +90.1% to +97.2% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided Q1 2026 deliveries to 80,000–83,000 vehicles (a year‑over‑year increase of 90.1%–97.2%), reiterated a full‑year volume growth target of 40%–50%, and said Q1 vehicle gross margin should be roughly flat versus Q4 2025 (Q4 vehicle margin was 18.1% and overall gross margin 17.5%); management expects to maintain quarterly R&D spending around RMB 2.0–2.5 billion and to keep SG&A controlled at no more than ~10% of revenue, while targeting full‑year non‑GAAP operating profit breakeven in 2026. Operationally, NIO plans to add about 1,000 power swap stations in 2026 (from 3,815 today) and expand its charging network (over 28,000 chargers now), roll out two major NWM/world‑model releases (Q2 and Q4) after a >80% month‑over‑month increase in Smart Driving usage in February, and leverage Shenji’s RMB 2.257 billion financing (post‑money valuation >RMB 8 billion) as it scales in‑house chips—all backed by Q4 results of 124,807 deliveries (Q4 YoY +71.7%), RMB 34.7 billion revenue (+75.9% YoY), RMB 1.25 billion adjusted operating profit, positive free cash flow for two consecutive quarters, and RMB 45.9 billion in cash and equivalents.Nio Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
31
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 69.42B | 85.10B | 65.73B | 55.62B | 49.27B | 36.14B |
| Gross Profit | 7.13B | 11.59B | 6.49B | 3.05B | 5.14B | 6.82B |
| EBITDA | -22.99B | -14.37B | -13.93B | -15.15B | -10.05B | -985.36M |
| Net Income | -24.31B | -14.55B | -22.66B | -21.15B | -14.56B | -10.57B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 100.05B | 124.48B | 107.60B | 117.38B | 96.26B | 82.88B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 17.80B | 45.81B | 22.09B | 49.75B | 39.06B | 52.39B |
| Total Debt | 30.96B | 26.25B | 33.82B | 34.73B | 23.71B | 20.10B |
| Total Liabilities | 93.43B | 111.78B | 94.10B | 87.79B | 68.62B | 48.10B |
| Stockholders Equity | -1.21B | 4.16B | 5.97B | 25.55B | 23.87B | 34.71B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -16.50B | -3.07B | -16.99B | -15.72B | -10.84B | -2.11B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -8.75B | 2.99B | -7.85B | -1.38B | -3.87B | 1.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.27B | -11.46B | -4.96B | -10.89B | 10.39B | -39.76B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.10B | 6.84B | 1.77B | 27.66B | -1.62B | 18.13B |
Nio Technical Analysis
Positive
6.83
Price Trends
5.54
Positive
5.24
Positive
5.61
Positive
Market Momentum
0.34
Negative
65.21
Neutral
83.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NIO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.83 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.11, above the 50-day MA of 5.54, and above the 200-day MA of 5.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.21 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NIO.
Nio Risk Analysis
Nio disclosed 122 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nio reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nio Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $15.54B | 79.91 | -984.82% | ― | 33.72% | 36.29% | |
56 Neutral | $17.61B | 109.05 | 1.55% | ― | -22.18% | -86.28% | |
55 Neutral | $18.64B | -11.30 | -66.53% | ― | 10.43% | 21.58% | |
53 Neutral | $14.88B | -60.90 | -3.77% | ― | 88.10% | 80.63% | |
47 Neutral | $9.94B | -2.12 | 57.07% | ― | 97.73% | -20.91% | |
46 Neutral | $2.16B | -1.22 | -133.09% | ― | 67.58% | 7.56% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
NIO
Nio
5.91
1.93
48.49%
LI
Li Auto
17.57
-7.68
-30.42%
XPEV
XPeng, Inc. ADR
15.83
-4.11
-20.61%
LCID
Lucid Group
6.54
-17.06
-72.29%
VFS
VinFast Auto
4.25
0.76
21.78%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
15.02
1.47
10.85%
Nio Corporate Events
Nio Swings to Profit as Q4 2025 Deliveries and Revenue Surge
Mar 10, 2026
Nio reported unaudited results on March 10, 2026 for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, highlighting a sharp acceleration in deliveries and revenue. Fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries surged 71.7% year-on-year to 124,807 unit...
Nio Launches 2026 Share Plan and Ties Massive CEO Award to Ambitious Growth Targets
Mar 10, 2026
On March 6, 2026, Nio adopted a 2026 Share Incentive Plan authorizing up to 248,454,460 Class A ordinary shares, equal to 10% of its outstanding share capital as of February 28, 2026, for equity-based awards over a 12-year term. The move underscor...
NIO Posts 58% February Delivery Surge and Hits 100 Million Battery Swaps
Mar 2, 2026
NIO Inc. reported that in February 2026 it delivered 20,797 vehicles, a 57.6% year-on-year increase, bringing year-to-date 2026 deliveries to 47,979 units, up 77.3%, and lifting cumulative deliveries to 1,045,571 as of February 28. The growth was ...
NIO Near-Double January Deliveries and Surpass One Million EVs as New Driving AI Rolls Out
Feb 2, 2026
In January 2026, NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles, a 96.1% year-on-year increase, with 20,894 units from its premium NIO brand, 3,481 from its family-focused ONVO line and 2,807 from its FIREFLY small high-end EV brand, bringing cumulative deliveries...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.