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Lucid Group (LCID)
NASDAQ:LCID

Lucid Group (LCID) AI Stock Analysis

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LCID

Lucid Group

(NASDAQ:LCID)

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Neutral 49 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$10.00
▼(-5.57% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/25/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large ongoing losses, heavy cash burn, and rising balance-sheet risk) and a bearish technical trend (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). The latest earnings call improves the outlook somewhat due to clear cost-down progress, delivery/revenue momentum, and defined 2026–2027 scaling plans with stated liquidity runway, but near-term funding and execution risks remain significant. Valuation provides limited support due to negative earnings and no indicated dividend.
Positive Factors
Production Ramp & Throughput
A sustained, repeatable production ramp builds durable unit economics: higher throughput and better yield spread fixed costs over more vehicles, improving gross margins and lowering per-unit capital intensity. This structural improvement supports scaling and long-term margin sustainability if maintained.
Record Deliveries & Demand
Consistent delivery growth signals durable end-market acceptance and pricing/ASP strength in the luxury EV segment. Sustained demand underpins revenue scalability, improves forecasting of working capital, and reduces commercial execution risk as product-market fit and brand recognition strengthen.
Strategic Partnerships & Robotaxi Demand
A large, committed commercial partner provides non-recurring capital, anchor demand and validation for autonomous programs. The robotaxi contract expands TAM and creates a multi-year revenue stream, improving long-run visibility and reducing single-product concentration risk if execution meets milestones.
Negative Factors
Heavy Cash Burn
Persistently large negative operating and free cash flows erode reserves and necessitate recurring external financing. This structural cash consumption raises dilution and refinancing risk, constrains reinvestment optionality, and makes long-term plans contingent on capital-markets access or strategic funding.
Weakened Balance Sheet & Higher Leverage
Rising leverage and a materially eroded equity base reduce financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to shocks or adverse market access. Higher refinancing needs and narrower capital buffers amplify execution risk and may increase long-term cost of capital or force unfavorable financing terms.
Constrained Runway & Heavy Near-term CapEx
Large, near-term factory and M2 investments require sustained execution to deliver projected cost reductions; with runway only into H1 2027 under current plan, the company faces structural financing risk. Failure to hit milestones could force dilutive financing or slow strategic rollouts.

Lucid Group (LCID) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Lucid Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionLucid Group, Inc. a technology and automotive company, develops electric vehicle (EV) technologies. The company designs, engineers, and builds electric vehicles, EV powertrains, and battery systems. As of December 31, 2021, it operates twenty retail studios in the United States. Lucid Group, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Newark, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyLucid Group generates revenue primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles. The company offers various models of the Lucid Air, which are sold directly to consumers, allowing for a streamlined purchasing process and higher margins compared to traditional dealership sales. Additionally, Lucid may generate income from pre-orders and deposits from customers for future models, enhancing cash flow before the actual sale. The company is also exploring opportunities in energy services and charging solutions, which could diversify its revenue streams. Significant partnerships, such as those with technology and battery suppliers, help reduce costs and improve product offerings, further contributing to its financial performance.

Lucid Group Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Vehicle Deliveries
Vehicle Deliveries
Tracks the number of vehicles delivered to customers, indicating production efficiency, demand fulfillment, and revenue generation potential.
Chart InsightsDeliveries have accelerated meaningfully through 2024–25, indicating real demand as Lucid shifts from low‑volume launches to a commercial ramp; management noted consecutive record quarters and a bold year‑end production target. That momentum lowers go‑to‑market risk, but persistent supply‑chain bottlenecks have kept production below demand and the company remains loss‑making, so the ramp’s payoff hinges on clearing component constraints and improving margins. Strategic partnerships and a boosted liquidity facility reduce execution and funding risk, but profitability and cadence execution remain the key investor watch‑items.
Data provided by:The Fly

Lucid Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
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% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of substantial operational progress and commercial momentum (double-digit production and delivery growth, big revenue beats, unit-cost reductions, strategic partnerships such as Uber/Nuro, and a healthy liquidity position) alongside material financial and execution risks (large operating losses and negative free cash flow, heavy near-term CapEx, tariffs and supply-chain costs, a production count adjustment, and workforce reductions). Management emphasized structural improvements, cost discipline and a clear roadmap (midsize platform and robotaxi commercialization) but also disclosed constrained runway into H1 2027 and the need for continued execution to translate operational gains into profitability.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Production Ramp and Throughput Improvements
Q4 production of 7,874 vehicles (up 133% YoY); full year production 7,840 vehicles (up 98% YoY). Management reports a repeatable run rate supporting up to ~7,500 vehicles/quarter as throughput, yield and first-time-right improved.
Record Deliveries and Growing Demand
Q4 deliveries 5,345 vehicles (up 72.5% YoY; up 31.1% sequentially). Full year deliveries 15,841 vehicles (up 54.7% YoY). Q4 marked eighth consecutive quarter of record deliveries.
Material Revenue Growth and Beating Consensus
Q4 revenue $522.7M (up 55% sequentially and 123% YoY). Full year revenue $1.35B (up 68% YoY). Company exceeded consensus expectations for both Q4 and full year.
Meaningful Margin and Unit-cost Progress
Sequential gross margin improved by ~18 percentage points in Q4. Manufacturing cost per vehicle (manufacturing, logistics, labor, overhead) declined ~27% during 2025. Company targets an additional ~20% manufacturing cost reduction by Q4 2026.
Successful New Model Ramp and Awards
Ramp of the Lucid Gravity (first SUV) progressed; Gravity represented majority of Q4 deliveries and drove higher ASP. Gravity and Air received multiple awards (e.g., Car and Driver 10Best, Esquire Car of the Year). Lucid Air was #1 selling EV in its U.S. segment (2025) and #3 in the large luxury car segment.
Strategic Partnerships and Robotaxi Opportunity
Closed $300M investment from Uber; agreement to deliver a minimum of 20,000 autonomous Lucid Gravity vehicles to Uber/Nuro fleet; on-road robotaxi testing began in Bay Area with commercial deployment on track for 2026. Management cites expanded TAM to ~$700B by 2035 including robotaxi business.
Midsize Platform and M2 Factory Progress
Midsized platform validation builds underway; midsize target price below $50,000 and expected to expand TAM from $40B to $350B by 2030. M2 factory in Saudi Arabia slightly ahead of schedule with equipment installation begun; startup production for midsize vehicle scheduled end of 2026.
Healthy Liquidity Position
Ending liquidity of ~$4.6B (approximately $2.1B cash + $2.5B undrawn committed facilities). Management states runway into the first half of 2027 under current plan.
Commercial & Service Expansion
Plans to open 42 new locations in 2026; expanded service lift capacity by 40% in U.S. and Canada; certified pre-owned program launched (Lucid Recharged); expanded access to >27,500 Tesla Superchargers in North America and >66,500 fast chargers total in the U.S.
Negative Updates
Large Operating Losses and Negative Free Cash Flow
Operating loss of $1.065B in the quarter (full-year operating loss significant), adjusted EBITDA loss reported at ~$875M for the period mentioned, and free cash flow negative $1.2B, driven by ramp-related operating losses, working capital and $325M Q4 CapEx.
Limited Runway and Heavy Near-term CapEx
CapEx guidance for 2026 of $1.2B–$1.4B (majority for M2). Management states liquidity extends into H1 2027, indicating constrained runway that depends on execution and access to committed facilities.
Tariff and Supply-Chain Headwinds
Incremental tariffs and transitory ramp inefficiencies applied roughly ~$10,000 per unit in 2025; inventory impairments and other supply disruptions (supplier fires, magnet chip shortages) weighed on costs and margins.
Production Reporting Adjustment
Management revised earlier Q4 production: 538 vehicles previously counted as factory-gated did not meet internal factory-gate criteria and were deferred to 2026 production counts — a control/recognition issue that required corrective steps.
Workforce Reduction and Cost-cutting
Implemented ~12% reduction of U.S. workforce (excluding hourly production employees) to achieve up to ~$500M in cumulative cost savings over the next 3 years — indicates continued pressure on operating efficiency and the need to re-base costs.
Gross Margin Below Long-term Targets
Despite improvement, full-year gross margin remains below management’s long-term targets. Company expects sequential improvement but still faces material headwinds to reach gross-margin breakeven.
Limited Near-term Contribution from Midsize and Robotaxi Volumes
Midsize production begins late in 2026 so minimal contribution to 2026 volumes; robotaxi volumes also expected to be modest in 2026 with larger fleet ramps in subsequent years — near-term volume and cash benefits are therefore limited.
Company Guidance
The company guided that 2026 will be a year of disciplined scaling with expected production of 25,000–27,000 vehicles, CapEx of $1.2–$1.4 billion (majority toward M2), and liquidity of ~$4.6 billion ( ~$2.1B cash + ~$2.5B undrawn facilities) sufficient into 1H‑2027; operational targets include starting midsize platform production by year‑end, delivering first production robotaxis to Uber for commercial deployment in the SF Bay Area (minimum 20,000‑vehicle Uber commitment; $300M Uber investment closed), opening 42 new locations, and achieving roughly a 20% additional reduction in manufacturing cost per unit by Q4‑2026 (after a ~27% decline in 2025); other quantified items: a Q4 underlying run‑rate supporting up to ~7,500 vehicles/quarter, removal of ~$10k/unit incremental tariffs seen in 2025, a 12% U.S. workforce reduction targeting ~$500M in cumulative savings over three years, and continued sequential gross‑margin improvement while maintaining disciplined cash burn and tight working capital control.

Lucid Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials remain very weak with deeply negative profitability (gross profit/EBITDA/net income) and heavy, persistent cash burn (operating and free cash flow sharply negative). Balance-sheet risk increased as debt-to-equity rose and equity fell materially, raising financing dependence; the reported 2025 annual revenue of $0 is a major red flag/data anomaly that further elevates uncertainty.
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Profitability remains very weak: gross profit, EBIT, EBITDA, and net income are deeply negative across the period, indicating the core business is still not covering production and operating costs. Revenue showed meaningful scaling from 2021–2024 ($27.1M to $807.8M), but 2025 annual revenue is reported as $0 with a -100% growth rate, which signals a major disruption or data anomaly; regardless, margins and losses did not demonstrate a clear path to break-even over the last several years.
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Leverage is mixed and has recently worsened: debt-to-equity rose to ~1.20 in 2025 versus ~0.50–0.64 in 2022–2024, while equity fell sharply (to ~$717M in 2025 from ~$3.87B in 2024). Total assets remain sizable (~$8.39B in 2025), but consistently negative returns on equity reflect ongoing losses and erosion of the capital base, increasing financing risk if losses persist.
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
Cash burn remains heavy with operating cash flow negative every year (about -$2.9B in 2025 and -$2.0B in 2024) and free cash flow also deeply negative (about -$3.8B in 2025 and -$2.9B in 2024). Free cash flow growth turned positive in 2024–2025, but that improvement is not consistent over the full history and the company still requires substantial external funding support given the scale of outflows.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.35B807.83M595.27M608.18M27.11M
Gross Profit-2.61B-923.11M-1.34B-1.04B-127.79M
EBITDA-2.12B-2.38B-2.57B-1.07B-2.50B
Net Income-2.70B-2.71B-2.83B-1.30B-2.58B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.39B9.65B8.51B7.88B7.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments997.83M4.03B3.86B3.91B6.26B
Total Debt860.53M2.48B2.43B2.35B2.21B
Total Liabilities7.67B5.78B3.66B3.53B3.97B
Stockholders Equity717.29M3.87B4.85B4.35B3.91B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-3.80B-2.90B-3.40B-3.30B-1.48B
Operating Cash Flow-2.93B-2.02B-2.49B-2.23B-1.06B
Investing Cash Flow1.48B-1.29B-946.98M-3.68B-420.69M
Financing Cash Flow915.16M3.55B3.07B1.35B7.14B

Lucid Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price10.59
Price Trends
50DMA
10.81
Negative
100DMA
13.77
Negative
200DMA
18.38
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.28
Negative
RSI
51.69
Neutral
STOCH
68.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LCID, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.27, below the 50-day MA of 10.81, and below the 200-day MA of 18.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LCID.

Lucid Group Risk Analysis

Lucid Group disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lucid Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Lucid Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
55
Neutral
$18.52B30.886.53%-9.99%-54.75%
50
Neutral
$17.24B-43.67-9.01%86.57%51.35%
50
Neutral
$18.76B-4.97-65.55%28.21%44.43%
49
Neutral
$3.22B-0.85-66.02%45.86%22.13%
45
Neutral
$11.98B-3.57-296.44%14.94%2.53%
45
Neutral
$7.70B-2.1474.91%-43.10%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
LCID
Lucid Group
10.00
-12.20
-54.95%
NIO
Nio
4.87
0.24
5.18%
LI
Li Auto
17.59
-13.14
-42.76%
XPEV
XPeng, Inc. ADR
17.56
-3.93
-18.29%
VFS
VinFast Auto
3.26
-0.36
-9.94%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
15.33
3.49
29.48%

Lucid Group Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Lucid Highlights Strategic Share Resale and Strong 2025 Results
Neutral
Feb 24, 2026

On February 20, 2026, Lucid announced a plan to cut approximately 12 percent of its current U.S. workforce, excluding hourly production workers, aiming to streamline operating expenses as it ramps its Midsize platform, robotaxi initiatives and ADAS development, and expands sales into new geographies. The restructuring is expected to yield about $500 million in cost savings over three years, with $40 million to $42 million in severance and related charges, and is slated for substantial completion by the end of the second quarter of 2026.

On February 24, 2026, Lucid registered for resale more than 69 million Class A shares previously issued or tied to transactions with SMB Holding, a subsidiary of Uber Technologies, Inc., and Ayar Third Investment Company, an affiliate of Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, effectively facilitating liquidity for key strategic partners without raising new primary capital. The company also reported that in 2025 it delivered 15,841 vehicles, nearly doubled production year on year, generated $522.7 million in fourth-quarter revenue and $1.35 billion for the full year, issued 2026 production guidance of 25,000–27,000 vehicles and revised its 2025 production count slightly downward after tightening internal validation criteria, while highlighting record deliveries, growing U.S. luxury EV share and a strong $4.6 billion liquidity position.

Management framed 2025 as a year of execution, cost discipline and strategic repositioning, citing structural improvements in unit economics and manufacturing cadence as it ramps the Lucid Gravity and prepares for higher volumes. For stakeholders, the combination of workforce reductions, robust liquidity, expanding autonomy and robotaxi programs, and the resale registration for strategic shareholders underscores Lucid’s push to balance aggressive growth ambitions with operational efficiency and capital discipline in a challenging EV market.

The most recent analyst rating on (LCID) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lucid Group stock, see the LCID Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Lucid Group Updates CFO Compensation and Relocation Benefits
Neutral
Jan 23, 2026

On January 20, 2026, Lucid Group’s Compensation and Human Capital Committee approved amendments to the compensation package of Chief Financial Officer Taoufiq Boussaid, extending his temporary housing subsidy from six to twelve months, doubling his annual stipend to $200,000 to reflect updated costs of participating in the French retirement system, and adding up to $275,000 in repatriation and tax and immigration support benefits tied to an involuntary termination without cause. The committee, advised by independent consultant Pay Governance, characterized these changes as aligning the CFO’s benefits with the original intent of his offer letter in light of new information that emerged during his employment, signaling Lucid’s willingness to tailor executive compensation for cross-border, high-level talent while maintaining a structured governance process.

The most recent analyst rating on (LCID) stock is a Hold with a $11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Lucid Group stock, see the LCID Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 25, 2026