Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
NASDAQ:RIVN
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Rivian Automotive
(NASDAQ:RIVN)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-18.75% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/05/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large ongoing losses, heavy cash burn, and higher leverage) and a technically weak price trend (below major moving averages). Offsetting this, the earnings call showed tangible strategic progress and improved liquidity with R2 launch progress, targeted cost reductions, and strong Software & Services growth, but near-term profitability guidance remains challenging.
Positive Factors
Software & Services Recurring Revenue
Sustained 49% YoY growth in Software & Services (Q1 revenue $473M, $181M gross profit) builds a higher-margin, recurring revenue stream. Over 2–6 months this diversifies revenue, improves blended gross margins and provides profitable cash flow leverage as vehicle hardware scales.
Negative Factors
Large Cash Burn and Negative Free Cash Flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow (~-$1.3B OCF, -$3.0B FCF TTM) means the business remains reliant on external capital to fund operations and capex. Over the medium term this constrains strategic optionality and raises refinancing exposure if markets tighten.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Software & Services Recurring Revenue
Sustained 49% YoY growth in Software & Services (Q1 revenue $473M, $181M gross profit) builds a higher-margin, recurring revenue stream. Over 2–6 months this diversifies revenue, improves blended gross margins and provides profitable cash flow leverage as vehicle hardware scales.
Read all positive factors
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)27.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth10.43%
EPS Growth21.58%
CountryUS
Employees14,861
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.92
Shares Outstanding1,237,077,300
10 Day Avg. Volume25,476,865
30 Day Avg. Volume27,300,017
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)5.12
Price to Sales (P/S)4.34
P/FCF Ratio-9.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.18
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-226.82
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-6.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.09Price Target Upside5.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.09B
Rivian Automotive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rivian Automotive, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and accessories. The company offers five-passenger pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles. It provides Rivian Commercial Vehicle platform for electric Delivery...
How the Company Makes Money
Rivian primarily makes money by selling vehicles: (1) Consumer vehicle sales, driven by deliveries of its R1T and R1S, with revenue recognized when vehicles are delivered to customers, including configured options and accessories where applicable....
Rivian Automotive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Vehicles Produced
Tracks the number of vehicles manufactured, indicating Rivian's production capacity and efficiency, as well as its ability to meet consumer demand.
Tracks the number of vehicles manufactured, indicating Rivian's production capacity and efficiency, as well as its ability to meet consumer demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRivian Automotive Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented meaningful strategic progress — notably the start of saleable R2 production, large targeted BOM and non‑BOM cost reductions, substantial software growth (+49% YoY), strengthened liquidity (nearly $8B expected) and acceleration of autonomy and Georgia capacity (DOE loan up to $4.5B). However, near-term financial results and guidance show continued losses (Q1 adjusted EBITDA loss $472M; 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss guidance $1.8–2.1B), an automotive gross loss in the quarter driven by a $100M decline in regulatory credits, ramp-related profitability headwinds in Q2–Q3, supply chain/commodity pressures, and a recent tornado disruption. Overall, the call balanced operational and strategic achievements with clear short-term financial and execution challenges.Positive Updates
Start of Saleable R2 Production
R2 production began in Normal, Illinois with initial employee deliveries; management calls R2 a mass-market, attractively priced 5-passenger SUV/crossover expected to broaden Rivian's addressable market.
Negative Updates
Automotive Gross Loss and Regulatory Credits Decline
Automotive gross profit was a $62 million loss in Q1 versus $92 million gross profit in the same quarter last year (a ~$154 million swing), primarily driven by a $100 million decrease in sales of automotive regulatory credits.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Start of Saleable R2 Production
R2 production began in Normal, Illinois with initial employee deliveries; management calls R2 a mass-market, attractively priced 5-passenger SUV/crossover expected to broaden Rivian's addressable market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Rivian reiterated 2026 guidance calling for 62,000–67,000 total vehicle deliveries (Q2 deliveries ~9,000–11,000) with R2 ramp back‑half weighted, and said automotive gross profit should increase year‑over‑year but will be pressured in Q2–Q3 before becoming a benefit in Q4; it expects a 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.1B–$1.8B and CapEx of $1.95B–$2.05B. The company ended Q1 with ~ $4.8B of cash and anticipates $2.55B of strategic partner capital in 2026 (already received $1.0B from VW, expects $300M from Uber this quarter, plus $1.0B non‑recourse debt from VW and $250M from Uber later subject to milestones), bringing total available liquidity and expected 2026 capital to nearly $8B. Rivian also announced an up to $4.5B DOE loan (≈$4B principal + ~$500M capitalized interest) for a Georgia greenfield expansion (Phase 1 increased 50% to 300,000 units annual capacity; combined Normal+Georgia capacity ~515,000), expects to draw the loan by early 2027, and plans R2 production in Normal to move from a single shift to 2 shifts by end‑2026 toward a Normal “North Star” of 4,000 vehicles/week; R2 BOM is targeted at ~50% of R1 and non‑BOM COGS >50% lower, with Georgia midsize production expected in late 2028.Rivian Automotive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
21
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.53B | 5.39B | 4.97B | 4.43B | 1.66B | 55.00M |
| Gross Profit | -95.00M | 144.00M | -1.20B | -2.03B | -3.12B | -465.00M |
| EBITDA | -3.16B | -2.56B | -3.39B | -4.27B | -5.99B | -4.46B |
| Net Income | -3.52B | -3.65B | -4.75B | -5.43B | -6.75B | -4.69B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.23B | 14.86B | 15.41B | 16.78B | 17.88B | 22.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.83B | 6.08B | 7.70B | 9.37B | 11.57B | 18.13B |
| Total Debt | 6.58B | 6.65B | 5.74B | 5.12B | 1.81B | 1.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 9.80B | 10.27B | 8.85B | 7.64B | 4.08B | 2.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.40B | 4.57B | 6.56B | 9.14B | 13.80B | 19.51B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.49B | -2.49B | -2.86B | -5.89B | -6.42B | -4.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -779.00M | -779.00M | -1.72B | -4.87B | -5.05B | -2.62B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.83B | -1.83B | -1.98B | -2.51B | -1.37B | -1.79B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 886.00M | 886.00M | 1.14B | 3.13B | 99.00M | 19.83B |
Rivian Automotive Technical Analysis
Positive
17.23
Price Trends
15.45
Positive
16.60
Positive
15.12
Positive
Market Momentum
0.29
Negative
64.67
Neutral
88.35
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RIVN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.52, above the 50-day MA of 15.45, and above the 200-day MA of 15.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.35 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RIVN.
Rivian Automotive Risk Analysis
Rivian Automotive disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rivian Automotive reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rivian Automotive Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $1.50T | 612.14 | 4.79% | ― | 2.25% | -39.81% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $14.55B | 79.91 | -984.82% | ― | 33.72% | 36.29% | |
56 Neutral | $17.69B | 4,652.09 | 1.55% | ― | -22.18% | -86.28% | |
53 Neutral | $14.70B | 44.76 | -3.77% | ― | 88.10% | 80.63% | |
46 Neutral | $18.25B | -11.30 | -69.98% | ― | 10.43% | 21.58% | |
45 Neutral | $2.04B | -7.61 | -293.86% | ― | 61.03% | -5.36% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
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0.80
5.85%
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Rivian Automotive Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
Rivian Raises $300 Million Through Private Share Placement
Positive
May 4, 2026
In April 2026, Rivian Automotive, Inc. achieved a defined milestone under a March 18, 2026 subscription agreement with SMB Holding Corporation and Uber Technologies, Inc., triggering a significant equity investment. On May 4, 2026, following recei...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Rivian Raises Capital via Volkswagen Equity Investment Deal
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
In the first quarter of 2026, Rivian reported consolidated revenue of $1.381 billion, up 11% year over year, driven by 10,365 vehicle deliveries and strong growth in software and services, though consolidated gross profit fell to $119 million as a...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Rivian Amends DOE Loan to Fund Georgia EV Plant
Positive
Apr 30, 2026
On April 30, 2026, Rivian New Horizon, LLC and Rivian Automotive, Inc. amended and restated their loan arrangement with the U.S. Department of Energy, preserving most structural terms while resizing the facility into two tranches totaling roughly ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rivian Reaffirms 2026 Delivery Guidance After Strong Quarter
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
On April 2, 2026, Rivian Automotive reported that it produced 10,236 vehicles and delivered 10,365 vehicles in the quarter ended March 31, 2026, from its Normal, Illinois plant, with volumes aligning with prior outlook. The company reaffirmed its ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Rivian, Uber Partner on Long-Term Autonomous Robotaxi Deal
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Rivian Automotive entered into a subscription agreement with SMB Holding Corporation and Uber Technologies under which SMB will invest an initial $300 million in Rivian, with shares or pre-funded warrants priced off Rivian’...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.