Rivian Automotive (RIVN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $16.03B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 43.52M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.39
• Revenue Growth: 2.73%
• EPS Growth: 45.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,861
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 81
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): -0.80
• Shares Outstanding: 1,209,521,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 45,456,442
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 43,518,704
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.58
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -59.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.17
• 1Y Price Target: $13.83
• Price Target Upside: 1.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 23

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $13.00 ▼(-4.69% Downside)

Rivian's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, with ongoing losses and high leverage being major concerns. While technical indicators show mixed momentum, the company's valuation remains weak due to negative earnings. The earnings call provided some positive insights, particularly regarding strategic investments and growth in software/services, but these are offset by production and regulatory challenges.

Positive Factors

Brand Strength

Strong RIVN brand awareness and limited negative perception position the company favorably to capture market share as the R2 enters the mid-size SUV segment.

Cost Structure

The company has a significantly improved cost structure on the upcoming R2 platform.

Market Expansion

RIVN's R2 mid-size SUV significantly expands the company's total addressable market beyond the more expensive R1 vehicle.

Negative Factors

Competitive Market

The EV market is expected to grow more crowded and competitive, increasing the execution risk associated with Rivian's manufacturing volume expansion.

Financial Performance

RIVN reported 2Q25 results below BofA and Consensus expectations, with gross profit turning back into negative territory and a gross margin miss.

Policy and Regulatory Challenges

The FY25 Adj. EBITDA guidance was revised down, and regulatory credits are expected to be lower than previously anticipated due to policy changes in the US.

Rivian Automotive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rivian Automotive, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and accessories. The company offers five-passenger pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles. It provides Rivian Commercial Vehicle platform for electric Delivery Van with collaboration with Amazon.com. The company sells its products directly to customers in the consumer and commercial markets. Rivian Automotive, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in San Jose, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Rivian Automotive primarily generates revenue through the sale of its electric vehicles, including the R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV. Additionally, the company plans to earn revenue from commercial sales, notably through a significant partnership with Amazon, which has ordered a substantial number of electric delivery vans. Beyond vehicle sales, Rivian aims to develop revenue streams from services such as vehicle maintenance, software updates, and potentially a future network of charging stations. The company also seeks to expand its business model to include financial services, such as vehicle leasing and financing options, to support the adoption of its electric vehicles.

Rivian Automotive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Rivian Automotive shows revenue growth but faces significant profitability and cash flow challenges. High leverage and negative margins are key risks, requiring strategic improvements in cost management and operational efficiency.

Income Statement

Rivian Automotive shows a slight improvement in revenue growth, with a 2.9% increase in the TTM period. However, the company continues to face significant challenges with negative gross, net, EBIT, and EBITDA margins, indicating ongoing profitability issues. The negative margins reflect high costs relative to revenue, which is a concern for long-term sustainability.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 0.96 in the TTM period, indicating higher leverage compared to previous years. While the equity ratio remains relatively stable, the negative return on equity highlights the company's struggle to generate profits from shareholders' investments. The balance sheet shows a need for improved financial management to enhance profitability and reduce leverage.

Cash Flow

Rivian's cash flow situation is concerning, with negative free cash flow growth and a negative operating cash flow to net income ratio. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some ability to cover net losses, but the overall cash flow position indicates a need for better cash management and cost control to achieve positive cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.15B	4.97B	4.43B	1.66B	55.00M	0.00
Gross Profit	-222.00M	-1.20B	-2.03B	-3.12B	-465.00M	-29.00M
EBITDA	-2.15B	-3.39B	-4.27B	-5.99B	-4.46B	-992.00M
Net Income	-3.50B	-4.75B	-5.43B	-6.75B	-4.72B	-1.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.60B	15.41B	16.78B	17.88B	22.29B	4.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.51B	7.70B	9.37B	11.57B	18.13B	2.98B
Total Debt	6.33B	5.00B	4.92B	1.81B	1.53B	180.00M
Total Liabilities	9.52B	8.85B	7.64B	4.08B	2.78B	5.99B
Stockholders Equity	6.07B	6.56B	9.14B	13.80B	19.51B	-1.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.22B	-2.86B	-5.89B	-6.42B	-4.42B	-1.76B
Operating Cash Flow	183.00M	-1.72B	-4.87B	-5.05B	-2.62B	-848.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.00B	-1.98B	-2.51B	-1.37B	-1.79B	-914.00M
Financing Cash Flow	858.00M	1.14B	3.13B	99.00M	19.83B	2.50B

Rivian Automotive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 13.64
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RIVN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.40, above the 50-day MA of 12.99, and above the 200-day MA of 12.91, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.52 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for RIVN.

Rivian Automotive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
F	73 Outperform	$47.12B	15.11	7.11%	6.40%	2.72%	-17.58%
LI	67 Neutral	$23.83B	21.41	11.91%	―	7.49%	-21.06%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.60B	14.14	-5.40%	3.04%	1.49%	-15.29%
NIO	57 Neutral	$13.21B	―	-240.42%	―	23.39%	3.93%
XPEV	55 Neutral	$23.02B	―	-13.34%	―	66.53%	48.17%
RIVN	49 Neutral	$16.03B	―	-54.42%	―	2.73%	45.63%
LCID	43 Neutral	$6.48B	―	-54.39%	―	39.01%	7.11%

Rivian Automotive Corporate Events

Rivian Automotive Secures $1 Billion Investment from Volkswagen

Rivian Automotive announced that it achieved a financial milestone by receiving a $1 billion investment from Volkswagen Group on June 30, 2025, in exchange for Class A common stock, marking a significant step in their $5.8 billion technology joint venture. Additionally, Rivian reported its Q2 2025 production and delivery figures, with 5,979 vehicles produced and 10,661 delivered, aligning with its outlook and reaffirming its 2025 delivery guidance range of 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles.

Rivian Automotive Approves Key Amendments at Annual Meeting

On June 18, 2025, Rivian Automotive held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several amendments to its Certificate of Incorporation were approved. These included increasing the authorized shares of Class A common stock and exculpating certain corporate officers from liability under specific conditions. The meeting also saw the election of three directors and approval of various proposals, including the ratification of KPMG LLP as the independent auditor and future issuance of shares to Volkswagen International America, Inc. These changes, effective as of June 20, 2025, following the filing with Delaware’s Secretary of State, are expected to impact Rivian’s operational flexibility and governance structure.

Rivian Announces $1.25 Billion Green Notes Offering

On June 4, 2025, Rivian Automotive announced the pricing of a $1.25 billion senior secured green notes offering, intended to refinance its outstanding senior secured notes due 2026. The closing of the notes is expected on June 12, 2025, and the proceeds will be used to redeem the existing notes and cover related expenses. The notes are expected to be secured by the company’s assets and guaranteed by its subsidiaries, reflecting Rivian’s strategic financial maneuvering to strengthen its capital structure and maintain its focus on sustainable transportation solutions.

Rivian Automotive Announces $1.25 Billion Green Notes Offering

On June 2, 2025, Rivian Automotive, Inc. announced its intention to offer $1.25 billion in senior secured green notes due 2031 in a private offering. The proceeds from this offering are expected to be used to redeem the company’s outstanding $1.25 billion floating rate senior secured notes due 2026, aiming to refinance existing debt and manage related expenses. This strategic financial move is anticipated to impact Rivian’s operations by potentially improving its financial structure and supporting its commitment to sustainable practices, although the offering’s success is subject to market conditions.