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Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
NASDAQ:RIVN

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) AI Stock Analysis

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Rivian Automotive

(NASDAQ:RIVN)

Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▼(-0.74%Downside)
Rivian's score is primarily impacted by financial performance challenges, with significant losses and negative cash flow trends. Technical analysis indicates weak momentum. Valuation concerns persist with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. The earnings call provided some positive developments, such as funding milestones, but was offset by delivery outlook reductions and tariff impacts.
Positive Factors
Cost Efficiency
Management demonstrated further progress in driving down R1 variable unit costs and in managing cash carefully.
Strategic Partnerships
Rivian's strategic value as a tech partner to legacy OEMs is emphasized, with software and AI embedded in the company's DNA.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Concerns
Lower unit sales drive free cash flow worse at negative $2.8 billion, including lower production and after capital expenditure.
Demand Outlook
There is a downbeat demand outlook for the year, leaving analysts waiting for updates on R2 progress and hoping for third-party opportunities.

Rivian Automotive (RIVN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Rivian Automotive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionRivian Automotive, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and accessories. The company offers five-passenger pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles. It provides Rivian Commercial Vehicle platform for electric Delivery Van with collaboration with Amazon.com. The company sells its products directly to customers in the consumer and commercial markets. Rivian Automotive, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in San Jose, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyRivian Automotive primarily generates revenue through the sale of its electric vehicles, including the R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV. Additionally, the company plans to earn revenue from commercial sales, notably through a significant partnership with Amazon, which has ordered a substantial number of electric delivery vans. Beyond vehicle sales, Rivian aims to develop revenue streams from services such as vehicle maintenance, software updates, and potentially a future network of charging stations. The company also seeks to expand its business model to include financial services, such as vehicle leasing and financing options, to support the adoption of its electric vehicles.

Rivian Automotive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Vehicles Produced
Vehicles Produced
Indicates the total number of vehicles manufactured, highlighting production capacity and operational efficiency, which are crucial for scaling and meeting market demand.
Chart InsightsRivian's production has faced volatility, with a notable dip in early 2024. Despite this, the company achieved a positive gross margin in Q4 2024 due to significant cost reductions. The earnings call highlights a strategic focus on innovation and partnerships, such as the joint venture with Volkswagen, expected to drive future revenue. However, challenges like demand uncertainties and supply chain issues persist, potentially impacting near-term production and deliveries. Rivian's proactive measures to address these challenges suggest a cautious yet optimistic outlook for 2025.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Rivian Automotive Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.74%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Rivian's earnings call highlighted positive gross profit and significant advancements in technology and manufacturing, but was offset by challenges such as reduced delivery outlook and trade policy impacts. The company remains optimistic about future developments, particularly with the R2 launch.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Second Consecutive Quarter of Positive Gross Profit
Rivian delivered a gross profit of $206 million in Q1 2025, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive gross profit.
Bestselling Electric SUV
R1S was the bestselling electric SUV in the United States with a starting price over $50,000 and the bestselling SUV with a starting price over $70,000 in California.
Autonomy Platform Developments
Launch of second generation Rivian Autonomy platform with enhancements such as 55 megapixels of cameras and more than 200 TOPS of onboard inference.
Significant Progress in Manufacturing Expansion
Completion of a 1.2 million square foot Supplier Park in Normal, Illinois and plans for a Georgia facility with an additional 400,000 units of annual capacity.
Volkswagen Group Funding Milestone
Rivian met the gross profit milestone with Volkswagen Group, expecting to receive $1 billion in funding at the end of June.
Steady Cash and Funding Position
As of March 31, 2025, Rivian had $7.2 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.
Negative Updates
Reduced Delivery Outlook
Rivian revised its delivery outlook to 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles, citing external factors and consumer demand uncertainty.
Tariff and Trade Policy Challenges
Tariffs expected to impact material and trade duty costs, with a few thousand dollars of impact per unit for 2025.
Adjusted EBITDA Losses
Rivian recorded adjusted EBITDA losses of negative $329 million, attributed to ongoing investment in R2 and key technologies.
Company Guidance
During Rivian's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance highlighting notable achievements and future expectations. Rivian reported a gross profit of $206 million, marking its second consecutive quarter of positive gross profit. This milestone is significant as it fulfills the conditions for receiving $1 billion in funding from Volkswagen Group, expected by the end of June. Despite achieving positive gross profit, Rivian's adjusted EBITDA losses were $329 million, attributed to ongoing investments in R2 development and expansion of sales and service infrastructure. The company expects 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 40,000 and 46,000 units, revising its outlook due to macroeconomic factors and potential impacts from tariffs. Capital expenditure guidance has been raised to $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion in anticipation of these challenges. Rivian remains committed to launching the R2 platform with a starting price of $45,000 and plans to begin production at the Normal plant in the first half of 2026. As of March 31, 2025, Rivian held $7.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, with further capital expected from partnerships and government loans.

Rivian Automotive Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Rivian is experiencing substantial revenue growth but is challenged by significant losses and operational inefficiencies. The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio, but negative cash flow and profitability remain major concerns.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Rivian's revenue has grown significantly over the years, reaching $5.006 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from $1.658 billion in 2022. However, the company is facing substantial losses with a negative net profit margin of -76.8% in TTM and a negative EBIT margin of -77.1%. The negative gross profit margin of -10.7% indicates high production costs relative to revenue. The company is on a growth trajectory, but profitability remains a critical challenge.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
Rivian's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.96 and a reasonable equity ratio of 40.1% in TTM, indicating a balanced capital structure. However, the return on equity remains negative at -61.8% due to ongoing net losses. The company maintains substantial cash reserves, but its continued losses could pose a risk to financial stability if not addressed.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
The company's cash flow situation is concerning, with negative free cash flow of -$1.86 billion in TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.17, pointing to inefficiencies in converting income to cash. While financing activities have contributed positively, sustaining operations with negative free cash flow is a challenge. The negative free cash flow growth rate is an area of concern.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue5.01B4.97B4.43B1.66B55.00M0.00
Gross Profit-538.00M-1.20B-2.03B-3.12B-465.00M-29.00M
EBITDA-2.57B-3.39B-4.27B-5.99B-4.46B-992.00M
Net Income-3.85B-4.75B-5.43B-6.75B-4.72B-1.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.51B15.41B16.78B17.88B22.29B4.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments7.18B7.70B9.37B11.57B18.13B2.98B
Total Debt6.00B5.74B4.92B1.81B1.53B180.00M
Total Liabilities9.28B8.85B7.64B4.08B2.78B5.99B
Stockholders Equity6.22B6.56B9.14B13.80B19.51B-1.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-1.86B-2.86B-5.89B-6.42B-4.42B-1.76B
Operating Cash Flow-635.00M-1.72B-4.87B-5.05B-2.62B-848.00M
Investing Cash Flow-1.78B-1.98B-2.51B-1.37B-1.79B-914.00M
Financing Cash Flow1.13B1.14B3.13B99.00M19.83B2.50B

Rivian Automotive Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price13.60
Price Trends
50DMA
14.01
Negative
100DMA
12.99
Positive
200DMA
12.53
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.16
Positive
RSI
46.72
Neutral
STOCH
55.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RIVN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.88, below the 50-day MA of 14.01, and above the 200-day MA of 12.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RIVN.

Rivian Automotive Risk Analysis

Rivian Automotive disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rivian Automotive reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Rivian Automotive Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
FF
77
Outperform
$42.95B8.6511.47%5.55%3.03%28.54%
LILI
75
Outperform
$28.25B26.0212.22%10.28%-29.75%
67
Neutral
¥253.98B13.046.57%2.83%5.07%-11.36%
49
Neutral
$15.59B-53.82%0.58%35.39%
45
Neutral
$6.47B-50.06%40.67%3.40%
43
Neutral
$17.41B-15.52%50.45%49.81%
NINIO
41
Neutral
$7.05B-240.42%23.39%3.93%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
13.74
-0.18
-1.29%
F
Ford Motor
10.85
-0.98
-8.28%
NIO
Nio
3.43
-1.01
-22.75%
LI
Li Auto
27.47
8.39
43.97%
XPEV
XPeng, Inc. ADR
17.88
10.17
131.91%
LCID
Lucid Group
2.11
-0.53
-20.08%

Rivian Automotive Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Rivian Automotive Approves Key Amendments at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 20, 2025

On June 18, 2025, Rivian Automotive held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where several amendments to its Certificate of Incorporation were approved. These included increasing the authorized shares of Class A common stock and exculpating certain corporate officers from liability under specific conditions. The meeting also saw the election of three directors and approval of various proposals, including the ratification of KPMG LLP as the independent auditor and future issuance of shares to Volkswagen International America, Inc. These changes, effective as of June 20, 2025, following the filing with Delaware’s Secretary of State, are expected to impact Rivian’s operational flexibility and governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (RIVN) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rivian Automotive stock, see the RIVN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Rivian Announces $1.25 Billion Green Notes Offering
Neutral
Jun 12, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Rivian Automotive announced the pricing of a $1.25 billion senior secured green notes offering, intended to refinance its outstanding senior secured notes due 2026. The closing of the notes is expected on June 12, 2025, and the proceeds will be used to redeem the existing notes and cover related expenses. The notes are expected to be secured by the company’s assets and guaranteed by its subsidiaries, reflecting Rivian’s strategic financial maneuvering to strengthen its capital structure and maintain its focus on sustainable transportation solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (RIVN) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rivian Automotive stock, see the RIVN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rivian Automotive Announces $1.25 Billion Green Notes Offering
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025

On June 2, 2025, Rivian Automotive, Inc. announced its intention to offer $1.25 billion in senior secured green notes due 2031 in a private offering. The proceeds from this offering are expected to be used to redeem the company’s outstanding $1.25 billion floating rate senior secured notes due 2026, aiming to refinance existing debt and manage related expenses. This strategic financial move is anticipated to impact Rivian’s operations by potentially improving its financial structure and supporting its commitment to sustainable practices, although the offering’s success is subject to market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (RIVN) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rivian Automotive stock, see the RIVN Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rivian Appoints Aidan Gomez to Board of Directors
Positive
Apr 21, 2025

On April 21, 2025, Rivian Automotive‘s Board of Directors expanded its size and appointed Aidan Gomez as a Class II director, with his term set to expire at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. This strategic move is expected to enhance Rivian’s leadership with Gomez’s expertise in artificial intelligence, potentially strengthening the company’s position in integrating advanced technologies into its operations.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rivian Automotive Announces Q1 2025 Production Figures
Neutral
Apr 2, 2025

On April 2, 2025, Rivian Automotive announced its production and delivery figures for the first quarter of 2025, with 14,611 vehicles produced and 8,640 delivered, aligning with its previous outlook. The company reaffirmed its annual delivery guidance and scheduled the release of its first quarter financial results for May 6, 2025, indicating a stable operational performance and commitment to its strategic goals.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 28, 2025