Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
NASDAQ:RIVN
Top Page
Rivian Automotive
(NASDAQ:RIVN)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▲(5.19% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—large net losses, negative free cash flow, and rising leverage—despite improving gross margin and reduced operating cash burn. Technicals are neutral and do not strongly reinforce upside momentum. The latest guidance and partnerships support the long-term narrative (R2 launch, software/services strength, and strategic funding), but sizable 2026 losses, capex needs, and ramp/execution risks keep the overall risk/reward balanced rather than strong.
Positive Factors
Improving Unit Economics
Rivian's >$1.3B gross profit improvement and first full year of positive gross profit indicate durable progress on unit economics. Sustained gross-margin gains narrow the gap to breakeven, reduce per-vehicle losses over time, and materially improve the runway for operating leverage as volumes scale.
Negative Factors
Deep Negative Cash Generation
Despite margin improvements, Rivian remains deeply loss-making with material negative FCF. Persistent large cash deficits require ongoing external financing, constraining strategic optionality and creating dependency on capital markets or partners until sustained FCF turn is demonstrably achieved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving Unit Economics
Rivian's >$1.3B gross profit improvement and first full year of positive gross profit indicate durable progress on unit economics. Sustained gross-margin gains narrow the gap to breakeven, reduce per-vehicle losses over time, and materially improve the runway for operating leverage as volumes scale.
Read all positive factors
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$18.88B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)32.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth28.21%
EPS Growth44.43%
CountryUS
Employees14,861
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.53
Shares Outstanding1,237,077,300
10 Day Avg. Volume34,069,916
30 Day Avg. Volume32,584,037
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)5.12
Price to Sales (P/S)4.34
P/FCF Ratio-9.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.13
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.96
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit148.22
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.33
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.50Price Target Upside15.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering22
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.57
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.08B
Rivian Automotive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Rivian Automotive, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and accessories. The company offers five-passenger pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles. It provides Rivian Commercial Vehicle platform for electric Delivery...
How the Company Makes Money
Rivian primarily makes money by selling battery-electric vehicles, recognizing automotive revenue when vehicles are delivered to customers (including consumer vehicles and commercial vans). In addition to vehicle sales, Rivian generates revenue fr...
Rivian Automotive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Vehicles Produced
Tracks the number of vehicles manufactured, indicating Rivian's production capacity and efficiency, as well as its ability to meet consumer demand.
Tracks the number of vehicles manufactured, indicating Rivian's production capacity and efficiency, as well as its ability to meet consumer demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRivian Automotive Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call communicated meaningful operational and product progress — including the company's first full year of positive gross profit, substantial per-unit improvements, strong Software & Services growth, a healthy cash balance and promising R2 and autonomy product milestones. However, material near-term challenges remain: the Automotive segment is still loss-making, substantial adjusted EBITDA losses are expected in 2026, R2 production will ramp slowly (single shift start with supply‑chain ramp dependency), working capital will be a cash outflow, and sizable 2026 capex and contingent JV funding introduce timing and execution risk. Overall, the update balances clear forward momentum and product/technology achievements against significant near-term financial and execution headwinds.Positive Updates
First Full Year of Positive Gross Profit
Rivian achieved greater than $1.3 billion improvement in full-year gross profit for 2025, marking the company's first full year of positive gross profit and demonstrating material improvement in unit economics.
Negative Updates
Continued Adjusted EBITDA Losses and 2026 Guidance
Rivian expects an adjusted EBITDA loss for 2026 between $2.1 billion and $1.8 billion, indicating substantial near-term operating cash burn despite improvements in gross profit.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
First Full Year of Positive Gross Profit
Rivian achieved greater than $1.3 billion improvement in full-year gross profit for 2025, marking the company's first full year of positive gross profit and demonstrating material improvement in unit economics.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Rivian guided to 62,000–67,000 total vehicle deliveries in 2026 (with ~9,000–11,000 deliveries per quarter in H1), expects R2 customer deliveries to begin in Q2 with single‑shift production and a second shift added toward year‑end (targeting ~4,000 units/week at Normal and a third shift in 2027), and forecasted an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.1B–$1.8B. Management said automotive gross profit should rise year‑over‑year but will be pressured in Q2–Q3 by the R2 launch before turning accretive in Q4, expects 2026 CapEx of $1.95B–$2.05B, anticipates a working‑capital cash outflow to build R2 inventory, and expects to receive about $2.0B of JV capital from Volkswagen in 2026 (roughly $1B conditional on winter testing and $1B non‑recourse debt expected in October); cash at year‑end 2025 was ~$6.1B. For context the company reported Q4 2025 consolidated revenue of ~$1.3B, consolidated gross profit $120M (9% margin), Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss of $465M (a $137M improvement vs Q3), Q4 production/deliveries of 10,974/9,745, Q4 automotive gross profit of negative $59M, full‑year improvements of ~ $5.5k in ASP and ~ $9.5k lower automotive COGS per unit, >$1.3B full‑year gross profit improvement, and expects Software & Services to grow ~60% YoY with mid‑30% margins.Rivian Automotive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.39B | 4.97B | 4.43B | 1.66B | 55.00M |
| Gross Profit | 144.00M | -1.20B | -2.03B | -3.12B | -465.00M |
| EBITDA | -2.56B | -3.39B | -4.27B | -5.99B | -4.46B |
| Net Income | -3.65B | -4.75B | -5.43B | -6.75B | -4.69B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.86B | 15.41B | 16.78B | 17.88B | 22.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.08B | 7.70B | 9.37B | 11.57B | 18.13B |
| Total Debt | 6.65B | 5.74B | 5.12B | 1.81B | 1.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.27B | 8.85B | 7.64B | 4.08B | 2.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.57B | 6.56B | 9.14B | 13.80B | 19.51B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.49B | -2.86B | -5.89B | -6.42B | -4.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -779.00M | -1.72B | -4.87B | -5.05B | -2.62B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.83B | -1.98B | -2.51B | -1.37B | -1.79B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 886.00M | 1.14B | 3.13B | 99.00M | 19.83B |
Rivian Automotive Technical Analysis
Negative
15.21
Price Trends
15.50
Negative
16.55
Negative
14.99
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
47.06
Neutral
36.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RIVN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.53, below the 50-day MA of 15.50, and above the 200-day MA of 14.99, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.06 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RIVN.
Rivian Automotive Risk Analysis
Rivian Automotive disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rivian Automotive reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rivian Automotive Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $1.40T | 432.45 | 4.83% | ― | -2.93% | -47.22% | |
55 Neutral | $17.99B | 4,652.09 | 1.55% | ― | -9.99% | -54.75% | |
50 Neutral | $18.88B | -7.49 | -66.53% | ― | 28.21% | 44.43% | |
50 Neutral | $17.16B | -60.90 | -3.77% | ― | 86.57% | 51.35% | |
47 Neutral | $3.25B | -12.21 | -133.09% | ― | 45.86% | 22.13% | |
45 Neutral | $13.12B | 79.91 | -984.82% | ― | 14.94% | 2.53% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
14.77
2.36
19.02%
TSLA
Tesla
361.83
98.28
37.29%
NIO
Nio
5.31
1.56
41.60%
LI
Li Auto
17.46
-8.06
-31.58%
XPEV
XPeng, Inc. ADR
16.93
-2.77
-14.06%
LCID
Lucid Group
9.40
-13.80
-59.48%
Rivian Automotive Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Rivian, Uber Partner on Long-Term Autonomous Robotaxi Deal
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
On March 18, 2026, Rivian Automotive entered into a subscription agreement with SMB Holding Corporation and Uber Technologies under which SMB will invest an initial $300 million in Rivian, with shares or pre-funded warrants priced off Rivian’...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rivian Reports Q4 Production, Sets Date for Earnings
Positive
Jan 2, 2026
On January 2, 2026, Rivian reported its production and delivery figures for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, confirming that performance was in line with internal expectations. The company produced 10,974 vehicles and deli...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.