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Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
NASDAQ:RIVN
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Rivian Automotive
(NASDAQ:RIVN)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$16.50
▲(7.63% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (large losses, negative free cash flow, and rising leverage) despite improving unit economics and reduced operating cash burn. The latest earnings call adds cautious support via improving gross profit trends and delivery/launch plans, but sizable 2026 losses, capex, and ramp/execution risks remain. Technicals are mixed-to-slightly supportive, while valuation is difficult to justify with negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Improving unit economics and first full-year positive gross profit
Rivian reported its first full year of positive gross profit with a >$1.3B improvement in 2025 and material per‑unit gains. Sustained positive gross margins signal improving unit economics that underpin longer-term path to automotive profitability once scale and launches stabilize.
High-margin, fast-growing Software & Services revenue stream
Software & Services delivers higher margins (~40% gross margin in Q4) and strong secular growth (~60% YoY expected). This recurring, software-enabled revenue diversifies the mix, improves blended margins and supports profitability durability independent of cyclical vehicle volumes.
Substantial cash balance plus planned JV funding from Volkswagen
A ~$6.1B cash balance plus expected $2B JV funding from VW materially extends runway to execute R2 launch, capex and infrastructure builds. Strong liquidity reduces immediate refinancing risk and gives management time to improve margins and scale operations.
Negative Factors
Continued large operating losses and negative free cash flow
Despite margin progress, Rivian remains deeply loss-making with very negative net margins and large negative free cash flow. Management's substantial 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss guidance implies ongoing funding needs and that profitability is not yet secured across the business.
High near-term capex and working-capital drain for R2 launch
Rivian plans nearly $2B of 2026 capex and an inventory build for R2, creating significant near-term cash draw. Large investment needs and working‑capital outflows raise execution and funding risk until R2 reaches steady multi‑shift production and positive incremental margin contribution.
Rising leverage and weakened balance-sheet flexibility
Debt has risen materially for a capital‑intensive automaker, reducing financial flexibility. Declining equity and negative ROE reflect cumulative losses that increase sensitivity to funding timing, making the business more vulnerable to contingencies or slower-than-expected ramp outcomes.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$19.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)27.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.07
Revenue Growth28.21%
EPS Growth44.43%
CountryUS
Employees14,861
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.53
Shares Outstanding1,237,077,300
10 Day Avg. Volume34,480,308
30 Day Avg. Volume27,880,087
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.19
Price to Book (P/B)5.12
Price to Sales (P/S)4.34
P/FCF Ratio-9.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.16
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.09
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit153.03
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-8.60
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.67Price Target Upside15.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering21
EPS Forecast (FY)-2.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.16B
Rivian Automotive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRivian Automotive, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and accessories. The company offers five-passenger pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles. It provides Rivian Commercial Vehicle platform for electric Delivery Van with collaboration with Amazon.com. The company sells its products directly to customers in the consumer and commercial markets. Rivian Automotive, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in San Jose, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyRivian generates revenue primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles, notably the R1T and R1S models. The company has also established a reservation system, allowing customers to place deposits on vehicles before their official release, which helps to gauge demand and secure early funding. Additional revenue streams include the sale of accessories and services related to their vehicles. Rivian has formed strategic partnerships, notably with Amazon, which has invested in the company and ordered a fleet of electric delivery vans, providing a significant revenue stream. The company also explores potential revenue from charging networks and software services, including over-the-air updates and autonomous driving features, contributing to its long-term growth strategy.
Rivian Automotive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Vehicles Produced
Tracks the number of vehicles manufactured, indicating Rivian's production capacity and efficiency, as well as its ability to meet consumer demand.
Tracks the number of vehicles manufactured, indicating Rivian's production capacity and efficiency, as well as its ability to meet consumer demand.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyRivian Automotive Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call communicated meaningful operational and product progress — including the company's first full year of positive gross profit, substantial per-unit improvements, strong Software & Services growth, a healthy cash balance and promising R2 and autonomy product milestones. However, material near-term challenges remain: the Automotive segment is still loss-making, substantial adjusted EBITDA losses are expected in 2026, R2 production will ramp slowly (single shift start with supply‑chain ramp dependency), working capital will be a cash outflow, and sizable 2026 capex and contingent JV funding introduce timing and execution risk. Overall, the update balances clear forward momentum and product/technology achievements against significant near-term financial and execution headwinds.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
First Full Year of Positive Gross Profit
Rivian achieved greater than $1.3 billion improvement in full-year gross profit for 2025, marking the company's first full year of positive gross profit and demonstrating material improvement in unit economics.
Significant Per-Unit Improvements
Full year-over-year improvements included approximately $5,500 higher average sales price and roughly $9,500 reduction in automotive cost of goods sold (COGS) per unit driven by material cost reductions and operational efficiencies.
Q4 Revenue and Gross Margin
Consolidated Q4 2025 revenue was about $1.3 billion with consolidated gross profit of $120 million and a consolidated gross profit margin of 9%.
Automotive Production and Revenue
In Q4 2025 Rivian produced 10,974 vehicles and delivered 9,745 vehicles, generating $839 million of automotive revenue; automotive gross loss improved to negative $59 million in Q4, a $71 million sequential improvement from Q3.
Software & Services Strength
Software and Services posted Q4 revenue of $447 million and gross profit of $179 million (≈40% gross margin); approximately $273 million (about 60%) of S&S revenue came from the Volkswagen joint venture, and the company expects ~60% year‑over‑year growth in S&S with mid-30% margins going forward.
Cash and JV Funding
Rivian ended 2025 with approximately $6.1 billion in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments and expects an additional $2.0 billion of capital from Volkswagen in 2026 (including $1.0 billion contingent on successful winter testing and $1.0 billion nonrecourse debt expected in October).
R2 Product and Market Positioning
R2 launch edition: dual-motor AWD with >650 horsepower and >300 miles of range; management emphasizes R2 will address an underserved ~$50,000 midsize SUV segment and plans product/pricing details on March 12 — management called R2 an 'exceptional vehicle' and a potential game changer.
Autonomy & RAP1 Progress
Rivian showcased RAP1 chip and expanded 'universal hands-free' to >3.5 million miles of mapped roads; customer utilization of autonomy features has doubled since release and the company plans to deliver LiDAR, RAP1 chips and limited point-to-point functionality by year-end 2026.
Improving Adjusted EBITDA Trend
Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss of negative $465 million represented a $137 million improvement from Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA for the full year at the favorable end of guidance due to gross profit and cost management gains.
Negative Updates
Continued Adjusted EBITDA Losses and 2026 Guidance
Rivian expects an adjusted EBITDA loss for 2026 between $2.1 billion and $1.8 billion, indicating substantial near-term operating cash burn despite improvements in gross profit.
Automotive Segment Still Loss-Making
Automotive gross profit was negative $59 million in Q4 2025 (an improvement but still a loss), and management expects R2 launch complexity to negatively impact automotive gross profit in Q2 and Q3 2026 before improving in Q4.
Working Capital and Inventory Build
The company expects working capital to be a cash outflow in 2026 due to inventory buildup related to the R2 launch (Q4 production exceeded deliveries: 10,974 produced vs. 9,745 delivered), which will pressure short-term cash flows.
R2 Ramp and Production Constraints
R2 will start with a single shift in Normal, with a second shift added toward year-end and a third shift planned for 2027; management noted that supply‑chain and supplier ramp constraints ("you can only ramp as fast as your slowest part") could limit speed of delivery despite strong backlog.
Near-Term Cost Pressure and Input-Price Uncertainty
Management acknowledged recent input-cost volatility (DRAM/memory, metals) and included these dynamics in guidance; while some raw material cost improvements occurred in 2025, future commodity or component price moves could offset progress.
Contingent JV Funding and Timing Risks
Of the expected $2.0 billion from Volkswagen in 2026, $1.0 billion is contingent on successful winter testing and $1.0 billion is nonrecourse debt expected in October, introducing timing and contingency risk to the capital plan.
Large 2026 CapEx Requirement
Rivian forecasts capital expenditures of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion in 2026 to finalize R2 tooling and plant work, start Georgia greenfield construction and build out sales/service/charging infrastructure, increasing near-term cash needs.
Company Guidance
Rivian guided to 62,000–67,000 total vehicle deliveries in 2026 (with ~9,000–11,000 deliveries per quarter in H1), expects R2 customer deliveries to begin in Q2 with single‑shift production and a second shift added toward year‑end (targeting ~4,000 units/week at Normal and a third shift in 2027), and forecasted an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.1B–$1.8B. Management said automotive gross profit should rise year‑over‑year but will be pressured in Q2–Q3 by the R2 launch before turning accretive in Q4, expects 2026 CapEx of $1.95B–$2.05B, anticipates a working‑capital cash outflow to build R2 inventory, and expects to receive about $2.0B of JV capital from Volkswagen in 2026 (roughly $1B conditional on winter testing and $1B non‑recourse debt expected in October); cash at year‑end 2025 was ~$6.1B. For context the company reported Q4 2025 consolidated revenue of ~$1.3B, consolidated gross profit $120M (9% margin), Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss of $465M (a $137M improvement vs Q3), Q4 production/deliveries of 10,974/9,745, Q4 automotive gross profit of negative $59M, full‑year improvements of ~ $5.5k in ASP and ~ $9.5k lower automotive COGS per unit, >$1.3B full‑year gross profit improvement, and expects Software & Services to grow ~60% YoY with mid‑30% margins.Rivian Automotive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Operational progress is evident (gross margin turned slightly positive in 2025 and operating cash burn improved sharply), but overall fundamentals remain weak with a large 2025 net loss (~-$3.6B), very negative net margin (~-67.7%), still-deeply negative free cash flow (-$2.49B), and rising leverage (debt-to-equity ~1.09) alongside shrinking equity.Income Statement
Revenue scaled meaningfully from $55M (2021) to $5.39B (2025), but growth turned negative in 2025 (-7.7% YoY) after strong expansion earlier. Profitability is still very weak despite improvement: gross margin moved from deeply negative in 2022–2024 to slightly positive in 2025 (~2.7%), yet the company remains heavily loss-making with a ~-67.7% net margin and ~-$3.6B net loss in 2025. Overall, the trajectory is improving on unit economics, but earnings power is not yet close to break-even.18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows moderate leverage for a capital-intensive automaker: debt-to-equity rose to ~1.09 in 2025 (from ~0.54 in 2023), reflecting increasing reliance on debt. Equity remains positive (~$4.6B in 2025), but it has declined materially from 2021–2022 levels, consistent with ongoing losses. Returns on equity are sharply negative (about -79% in 2025), highlighting that the capital base is not currently generating profits and that continued losses can pressure financial flexibility over time.46
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash burn remains significant, though improving: operating cash flow improved from -$4.87B (2023) to -$0.78B (2025). Free cash flow is still deeply negative (-$2.49B in 2025), indicating substantial ongoing funding needs, even if the direction is better than prior years. Cash generation is not yet self-sustaining, and the business likely continues to depend on external capital (debt and/or equity) to fund operations and investment.24
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.39B | 4.97B | 4.43B | 1.66B | 55.00M |
| Gross Profit | 144.00M | -1.20B | -2.03B | -3.12B | -465.00M |
| EBITDA | -2.56B | -3.39B | -4.27B | -5.99B | -4.46B |
| Net Income | -3.65B | -4.75B | -5.43B | -6.75B | -4.69B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 14.86B | 15.41B | 16.78B | 17.88B | 22.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.08B | 7.70B | 9.37B | 11.57B | 18.13B |
| Total Debt | 6.65B | 5.74B | 5.12B | 1.81B | 1.61B |
| Total Liabilities | 10.27B | 8.85B | 7.64B | 4.08B | 2.78B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.57B | 6.56B | 9.14B | 13.80B | 19.51B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.49B | -2.86B | -5.89B | -6.42B | -4.42B |
| Operating Cash Flow | -779.00M | -1.72B | -4.87B | -5.05B | -2.62B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.83B | -1.98B | -2.51B | -1.37B | -1.79B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 886.00M | 1.14B | 3.13B | 99.00M | 19.83B |
Rivian Automotive Technical Analysis
Negative
15.33
Price Trends
17.18
Negative
16.10
Negative
14.94
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.31
Negative
46.98
Neutral
24.82
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RIVN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.33 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.12, below the 50-day MA of 17.18, and above the 200-day MA of 14.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.82 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RIVN.
Rivian Automotive Risk Analysis
Rivian Automotive disclosed 4 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rivian Automotive reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rivian Automotive Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $1.51T | 374.08 | 4.89% | ― | -2.93% | -47.22% | |
55 Neutral | $17.94B | 29.44 | 6.53% | ― | -9.99% | -54.75% | |
50 Neutral | $19.02B | -5.00 | -65.55% | ― | 28.21% | 44.43% | |
50 Neutral | $16.67B | -42.18 | -9.01% | ― | 86.57% | 51.35% | |
49 Neutral | $3.28B | -0.82 | -66.02% | ― | 45.86% | 22.13% | |
45 Neutral | $11.36B | -3.35 | -296.44% | ― | 14.94% | 2.53% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
15.33
3.82
33.19%
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Rivian Automotive Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rivian Reports Q4 Production, Sets Date for Earnings
Positive
Jan 2, 2026
On January 2, 2026, Rivian reported its production and delivery figures for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, confirming that performance was in line with internal expectations. The company produced 10,974 vehicles and delivered 9,745 vehicles in the fourth quarter, contributing to full-year totals of 42,284 vehicles produced and 42,247 delivered, underscoring continued scaling of its Normal, Illinois manufacturing facility and operational execution. Rivian also set February 12, 2026, as the date it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, signaling upcoming visibility for investors into the company’s financial performance and business outlook following this production ramp.
The most recent analyst rating on (RIVN) stock is a Hold with a $23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rivian Automotive stock, see the RIVN Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board Changes
Rivian announces board member resignation and board reduction
Neutral
Dec 19, 2025
On December 17, 2025, Rivian Automotive announced that Board member Rose Marcario had resigned from its Board of Directors, effective January 1, 2026, in order to focus on other commitments. Following her departure, the company will reduce the size of its Board from eight to seven members, while Marcario will continue to play a role in Rivian’s broader mission by remaining Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Rivian Foundation, signaling ongoing alignment with the company’s philanthropic and sustainability-focused initiatives.
The most recent analyst rating on (RIVN) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rivian Automotive stock, see the RIVN Stock Forecast page.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.