Rivian Automotive (RIVN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $17.70B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 25.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.07
• Revenue Growth: 28.21%
• EPS Growth: 44.43%
• Country: US
• Employees: 14,861
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): -0.66
• Shares Outstanding: 1,222,000,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 22,029,949
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 25,137,004
• PEG Ratio: 0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.71
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 149.47
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -7.87
• 1Y Price Target: $18.41
• Price Target Upside: 27.76% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.50 ▲(0.62% Upside)

The score is primarily held back by weak financial performance (ongoing losses and deteriorating free cash flow) despite some improvement in gross margin and a relatively conservative balance sheet. Technicals are a clear positive with the stock above key moving averages and a positive MACD. Earnings-call commentary is mixed—reaffirmed delivery guidance and software/services strength versus negative automotive gross profit, large EBITDA losses, and demand uncertainty—while valuation support is limited due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong liquidity and committed capital

A ~$7.1B cash balance plus expected JV and DOE funding materially extends runway, lowering near-term refinancing risk. This durable liquidity cushion supports R2 launch and required capex, allowing execution on scale and margin improvements without immediate capital-market dependence.

Improving gross margins and revenue growth

Transition from negative to positive gross profit on a trailing basis and sustained revenue growth indicate better cost discipline and mix shifts. These improvements are structural drivers toward profitability as fixed-cost absorption improves with higher volumes and R2 production ramps.

High-margin software & JV contribution

A profitable software/services stream from the VW JV diversifies Rivian's revenue base and boosts blended gross margins. Recurring, software-driven profits scale with fleet size, improving cash conversion and reducing reliance solely on low-margin vehicle hardware sales over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Large operating losses (adjusted EBITDA)

Sustained multi-hundred-million to multi-billion adjusted EBITDA losses indicate that operating cost structure remains misaligned with current revenue. Persistent high operating losses will pressure liquidity and require continued external funding unless cost reductions or margin expansion accelerate materially.

Declining free cash flow / cash burn

A significant decline in free cash flow signals ongoing burn after operations and capex. Even with a strong cash balance, negative FCF undermines financial flexibility, raising dilution or debt risk if operational improvements or external capital do not materialize within the next several quarters.

Negative automotive gross profit

Core vehicle unit economics remain challenged, with negative automotive gross profit driven by low fixed-cost absorption. This exposes the business to execution and ramp risks: delays or lower volumes will perpetuate weak vehicle margins and slow path to scalable profitability.

Rivian Automotive Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Rivian Automotive, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and accessories. The company offers five-passenger pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles. It provides Rivian Commercial Vehicle platform for electric Delivery Van with collaboration with Amazon.com. The company sells its products directly to customers in the consumer and commercial markets. Rivian Automotive, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in San Jose, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Rivian generates revenue primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles, notably the R1T and R1S models. The company has also established a reservation system, allowing customers to place deposits on vehicles before their official release, which helps to gauge demand and secure early funding. Additional revenue streams include the sale of accessories and services related to their vehicles. Rivian has formed strategic partnerships, notably with Amazon, which has invested in the company and ordered a fleet of electric delivery vans, providing a significant revenue stream. The company also explores potential revenue from charging networks and software services, including over-the-air updates and autonomous driving features, contributing to its long-term growth strategy.

Rivian Automotive Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Improving gross margin and positive revenue growth are constructive, and leverage appears conservative. However, the company remains unprofitable with negative net and EBIT margins, and declining free cash flow highlights ongoing cash burn and funding-risk sensitivity.

Income Statement

Rivian Automotive's income statement shows a significant improvement in gross profit margin from negative to positive over the TTM, indicating better cost management. However, the company remains unprofitable with a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin, reflecting ongoing operational challenges. Revenue growth is positive, but the high negative margins suggest profitability is still a distant goal.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating conservative leverage. However, the negative return on equity highlights the company's struggle to generate profits from its equity base. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid asset base, but profitability remains a concern.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a significant decline in free cash flow, indicating cash burn issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some operational cash generation, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow challenges. The company needs to improve cash management to support growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.83B	4.97B	4.43B	1.66B	55.00M	0.00
Gross Profit	121.00M	-1.20B	-2.03B	-3.12B	-465.00M	-29.00M
EBITDA	-2.30B	-3.39B	-4.27B	-5.99B	-4.46B	-981.00M
Net Income	-3.58B	-4.75B	-5.43B	-6.75B	-4.69B	-1.02B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.22B	15.41B	16.78B	17.88B	22.29B	4.60B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	7.09B	7.70B	9.37B	11.57B	18.13B	2.98B
Total Debt	4.97B	5.74B	4.92B	1.81B	1.61B	180.00M
Total Liabilities	10.13B	8.85B	7.64B	4.08B	2.78B	5.99B
Stockholders Equity	5.07B	6.56B	9.14B	13.80B	19.51B	-1.38B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-489.00M	-2.86B	-5.89B	-6.42B	-4.42B	-1.76B
Operating Cash Flow	1.08B	-1.72B	-4.87B	-5.05B	-2.62B	-848.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.89B	-1.98B	-2.51B	-1.37B	-1.79B	-914.00M
Financing Cash Flow	851.00M	1.14B	3.13B	99.00M	19.83B	2.50B

Rivian Automotive Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.41
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RIVN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.41 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.63, below the 50-day MA of 17.75, and below the 200-day MA of 14.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 25.39 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RIVN.

Rivian Automotive Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
TSLA	60 Neutral	$1.58T	392.16	4.89%	―	-2.93%	-47.22%
LI	55 Neutral	$16.65B	28.49	6.53%	―	-9.99%	-54.75%
RIVN	53 Neutral	$17.70B	-4.63	-65.28%	―	28.21%	44.43%
XPEV	50 Neutral	$16.31B	-41.22	-9.01%	―	86.57%	51.35%
LCID	47 Neutral	$3.34B	-0.98	-61.12%	―	45.86%	22.13%
NIO	45 Neutral	$10.59B	-3.13	-296.44%	―	14.94%	2.53%

Rivian Automotive Corporate Events

Rivian Reports Q4 Production, Sets Date for Earnings

On January 2, 2026, Rivian reported its production and delivery figures for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, confirming that performance was in line with internal expectations. The company produced 10,974 vehicles and delivered 9,745 vehicles in the fourth quarter, contributing to full-year totals of 42,284 vehicles produced and 42,247 delivered, underscoring continued scaling of its Normal, Illinois manufacturing facility and operational execution. Rivian also set February 12, 2026, as the date it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, signaling upcoming visibility for investors into the company’s financial performance and business outlook following this production ramp.

The most recent analyst rating on (RIVN) stock is a Hold with a $23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rivian Automotive stock, see the RIVN Stock Forecast page.

Rivian announces board member resignation and board reduction

On December 17, 2025, Rivian Automotive announced that Board member Rose Marcario had resigned from its Board of Directors, effective January 1, 2026, in order to focus on other commitments. Following her departure, the company will reduce the size of its Board from eight to seven members, while Marcario will continue to play a role in Rivian’s broader mission by remaining Chair of the Board of Trustees of the Rivian Foundation, signaling ongoing alignment with the company’s philanthropic and sustainability-focused initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (RIVN) stock is a Buy with a $25.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rivian Automotive stock, see the RIVN Stock Forecast page.

Rivian Approves New Stock Option for CEO

On November 6, 2025, Rivian Automotive‘s Board of Directors approved a new performance-based stock option for CEO Dr. Robert J. Scaringe, replacing a previous award from 2021. The new option allows the purchase of up to 36.5 million shares, contingent on achieving significant stock price and financial performance goals, designed to retain and incentivize Dr. Scaringe as Rivian progresses its technology roadmap and launches new products. Additionally, Dr. Scaringe received a profits interest award from Mind Robotics, a subsidiary of Rivian, providing him with a 10% economic interest once certain profit thresholds are met.

The most recent analyst rating on (RIVN) stock is a Hold with a $15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rivian Automotive stock, see the RIVN Stock Forecast page.