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Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
NASDAQ:RIVN
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Rivian Automotive
(NASDAQ:RIVN)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-0.71%Downside)
Positive Factors
Cost Efficiency
Rivian delivered further improvement in unit vehicle costs, significantly lower than the previous levels despite low volume of lower-cost EDV.
Financial Performance
The quarter was genuinely better, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeding consensus estimates.
Partnership and Investment
The recent VW joint venture helps alleviate a significant chunk of the capital concern and could establish the Rivian/VW JV as the next-gen vehicle platform of choice in the Western world, outside of Tesla.
Negative Factors
Delivery Forecast
The warning that full year deliveries are likely to track only 40-46K, down from the prior outlook for 46-51K, represents a worrying contraction from the previous year's deliveries.
Demand Outlook
There is a downbeat demand outlook for the year, leaving analysts waiting for updates on R2 progress and hoping for third-party opportunities.
Free Cash Flow
Lower unit sales drive free cash flow worse at negative $2.8 billion, including lower production and after capital expenditure.
Rivian Automotive (RIVN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.16B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)34.48M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth0.58%
EPS Growth35.39%
CountryUS
Employees14,861
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength77
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.41
Shares Outstanding1,138,599,900
10 Day Avg. Volume32,980,963
30 Day Avg. Volume34,484,944
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.20
Price to Book (P/B)2.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-5.68
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.03
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-13.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.03
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.74Price Target Upside4.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering25
Rivian Automotive Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionRivian Automotive, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and accessories. The company offers five-passenger pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles. It provides Rivian Commercial Vehicle platform for electric Delivery Van with collaboration with Amazon.com. The company sells its products directly to customers in the consumer and commercial markets. Rivian Automotive, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in San Jose, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyRivian Automotive makes money primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles, including consumer models like the R1T and R1S, and commercial vehicles such as delivery vans developed in partnership with Amazon. The company generates revenue by selling these vehicles directly to consumers and through fleet sales to businesses. Additionally, Rivian profits from providing related services, including vehicle maintenance, charging solutions, and over-the-air software updates. A significant factor in Rivian's earnings is its strategic partnership with Amazon, which involves a large-scale order for custom electric delivery vans, highlighting the company's focus on expanding its commercial vehicle segment.
Rivian Automotive Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Vehicles Produced
Indicates the total number of vehicles manufactured, highlighting production capacity and operational efficiency, which are crucial for scaling and meeting market demand.
Indicates the total number of vehicles manufactured, highlighting production capacity and operational efficiency, which are crucial for scaling and meeting market demand.
Data provided by:
Main Street Data
Main Street DataRivian Automotive Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 4.44%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Rivian's earnings call highlighted positive gross profit and significant advancements in technology and manufacturing, but was offset by challenges such as reduced delivery outlook and trade policy impacts. The company remains optimistic about future developments, particularly with the R2 launch.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Second Consecutive Quarter of Positive Gross Profit
Rivian delivered a gross profit of $206 million in Q1 2025, marking the second consecutive quarter of positive gross profit.
Bestselling Electric SUV
R1S was the bestselling electric SUV in the United States with a starting price over $50,000 and the bestselling SUV with a starting price over $70,000 in California.
Autonomy Platform Developments
Launch of second generation Rivian Autonomy platform with enhancements such as 55 megapixels of cameras and more than 200 TOPS of onboard inference.
Significant Progress in Manufacturing Expansion
Completion of a 1.2 million square foot Supplier Park in Normal, Illinois and plans for a Georgia facility with an additional 400,000 units of annual capacity.
Volkswagen Group Funding Milestone
Rivian met the gross profit milestone with Volkswagen Group, expecting to receive $1 billion in funding at the end of June.
Steady Cash and Funding Position
As of March 31, 2025, Rivian had $7.2 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.
Negative Updates
Reduced Delivery Outlook
Rivian revised its delivery outlook to 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles, citing external factors and consumer demand uncertainty.
Tariff and Trade Policy Challenges
Tariffs expected to impact material and trade duty costs, with a few thousand dollars of impact per unit for 2025.
Adjusted EBITDA Losses
Rivian recorded adjusted EBITDA losses of negative $329 million, attributed to ongoing investment in R2 and key technologies.
Company Guidance
During Rivian's Q1 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance highlighting notable achievements and future expectations. Rivian reported a gross profit of $206 million, marking its second consecutive quarter of positive gross profit. This milestone is significant as it fulfills the conditions for receiving $1 billion in funding from Volkswagen Group, expected by the end of June. Despite achieving positive gross profit, Rivian's adjusted EBITDA losses were $329 million, attributed to ongoing investments in R2 development and expansion of sales and service infrastructure. The company expects 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 40,000 and 46,000 units, revising its outlook due to macroeconomic factors and potential impacts from tariffs. Capital expenditure guidance has been raised to $1.8 billion to $1.9 billion in anticipation of these challenges. Rivian remains committed to launching the R2 platform with a starting price of $45,000 and plans to begin production at the Normal plant in the first half of 2026. As of March 31, 2025, Rivian held $7.2 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, with further capital expected from partnerships and government loans.Rivian Automotive Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Rivian shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability. The balance sheet indicates good liquidity but financial instability concerns persist. Negative cash flows are a major challenge, though there is some improvement in operating cash flow.Income Statement
Rivian Automotive has shown significant revenue growth, increasing from $55 million in 2021 to $4.97 billion in 2024. However, the company continues to operate at a loss, with a negative gross profit margin and net profit margin. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain deeply negative, indicating ongoing operational challenges. While revenue growth is promising, profitability remains a key concern.45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a strong cash position with $5.29 billion in cash and short-term investments as of 2024, though stockholders' equity has decreased over time. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting manageable leverage, but the negative equity in earlier years signals financial instability. Overall, the balance sheet shows some improvement, but risks remain.50
Neutral
Cash Flow
Rivian's operating cash flow remains negative, indicating ongoing cash burn, though there is improvement from 2023 to 2024. Free cash flow is also negative, despite improvements in capital expenditures. The company relies on financing activities to support operations. Positive cash flow from financing is a temporary buffer, but the continuous negative free cash flow is a concern.40
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 4.97B | 4.43B | 1.66B | 55.00M | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| -1.20B | -2.03B | -3.12B | -465.00M | -29.00M | EBIT |
| -4.69B | -5.74B | -6.86B | -4.22B | -1.02B | EBITDA |
| -3.39B | -4.27B | -5.99B | -4.46B | -992.00M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -4.75B | -5.43B | -6.75B | -4.72B | -1.03B |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 7.70B | 9.37B | 11.57B | 18.13B | 2.98B | Total Assets |
| 15.41B | 16.78B | 17.88B | 22.29B | 4.60B | Total Debt |
| 5.74B | 4.92B | 1.81B | 1.53B | 180.00M | Net Debt |
| 443.00M | -2.94B | -9.76B | -16.60B | -2.80B | Total Liabilities |
| 8.85B | 7.64B | 4.08B | 2.78B | 5.99B | Stockholders Equity |
| 6.56B | 9.14B | 13.80B | 19.51B | -1.38B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -2.86B | -5.89B | -6.42B | -4.42B | -1.76B | Operating Cash Flow |
| -1.72B | -4.87B | -5.05B | -2.62B | -848.00M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -1.98B | -2.51B | -1.37B | -1.79B | -914.00M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 1.14B | 3.13B | 99.00M | 19.83B | 2.50B |
Rivian Automotive Technical Analysis
Neutral
14.10
Price Trends
13.28
Positive
12.87
Positive
12.50
Positive
Market Momentum
0.52
Positive
46.35
Neutral
5.93
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RIVN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.94, above the 50-day MA of 13.28, and above the 200-day MA of 12.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.93 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for RIVN.
Rivian Automotive Risk Analysis
Rivian Automotive disclosed 91 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Rivian Automotive reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Rivian Automotive Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $28.71B | 26.84 | 12.22% | ― | 10.28% | -29.75% | |
77 Outperform | $39.69B | 8.00 | 11.47% | 7.22% | 3.03% | 28.54% | |
62 Neutral | $6.90B | 11.12 | 2.92% | 3.89% | 2.68% | -25.06% | |
56 Neutral | $16.16B | ― | -53.82% | ― | 0.58% | 35.39% | |
55 Neutral | $18.51B | ― | -15.52% | ― | 50.45% | 49.81% | |
48 Neutral | $7.28B | ― | -142.49% | ― | 16.99% | 12.99% | |
41 Neutral | $6.71B | ― | -50.06% | ― | 40.67% | 3.40% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
14.10
2.88
25.67%
F
Ford Motor
9.98
-1.17
-10.49%
NIO
Nio
3.52
-1.69
-32.44%
LI
Li Auto
27.82
7.78
38.82%
XPEV
XPeng, Inc. ADR
19.26
11.16
137.78%
LCID
Lucid Group
2.20
-0.65
-22.81%
Rivian Automotive Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rivian Automotive Announces $1.25 Billion Green Notes Offering
Neutral
Jun 2, 2025
On June 2, 2025, Rivian Automotive, Inc. announced its intention to offer $1.25 billion in senior secured green notes due 2031 in a private offering. The proceeds from this offering are expected to be used to redeem the company’s outstanding $1.25 billion floating rate senior secured notes due 2026, aiming to refinance existing debt and manage related expenses. This strategic financial move is anticipated to impact Rivian’s operations by potentially improving its financial structure and supporting its commitment to sustainable practices, although the offering’s success is subject to market conditions.
The most recent analyst rating on (RIVN) stock is a Hold with a $13.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Rivian Automotive stock, see the RIVN Stock Forecast page.
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rivian Appoints Aidan Gomez to Board of Directors
Positive
Apr 21, 2025
On April 21, 2025, Rivian Automotive‘s Board of Directors expanded its size and appointed Aidan Gomez as a Class II director, with his term set to expire at the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders. This strategic move is expected to enhance Rivian’s leadership with Gomez’s expertise in artificial intelligence, potentially strengthening the company’s position in integrating advanced technologies into its operations.
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Rivian Automotive Announces Q1 2025 Production Figures
Neutral
Apr 2, 2025
On April 2, 2025, Rivian Automotive announced its production and delivery figures for the first quarter of 2025, with 14,611 vehicles produced and 8,640 delivered, aligning with its previous outlook. The company reaffirmed its annual delivery guidance and scheduled the release of its first quarter financial results for May 6, 2025, indicating a stable operational performance and commitment to its strategic goals.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.