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Ford Motor
(NYSE:F)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▲(4.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
The score is held back primarily by weak TTM profitability and a highly leveraged balance sheet, partially offset by solid operating/free cash flow. The latest earnings call improves the outlook with raised 2026 EBIT and free-cash-flow guidance, but meaningful headwinds (Novelis/commodities and sizable Model e losses) keep risk elevated. Technically, the stock is trading above major moving averages, and the dividend yield is supportive, but valuation remains constrained by current losses.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & liquidity
Sustained operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, EV investments, dividend and debt service. The company’s large cash and liquidity buffer plus higher FCF guidance reduce refinancing risk and support execution through multi‑quarter Model e scale-up and cyclical headwinds.
Negative Factors
High leverage & balance sheet risk
Extremely elevated leverage limits financial flexibility and increases interest and covenant exposure, particularly as capital needs rise for EVs and battery plants. Large debt load reduces buffer for cyclic downturns and heightens sensitivity to higher rates or unexpected cash outflows despite strong liquidity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & liquidity
Sustained operating cash flow and positive free cash flow provide durable funding for capex, EV investments, dividend and debt service. The company’s large cash and liquidity buffer plus higher FCF guidance reduce refinancing risk and support execution through multi‑quarter Model e scale-up and cyclical headwinds.
Read all positive factors
Ford Motor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Income Before Taxes by Segment
Reports absolute pre-tax earnings from each segment so investors can identify which parts of the company are profitable, which require support, and how earnings mix is shifting over time.
Reports absolute pre-tax earnings from each segment so investors can identify which parts of the company are profitable, which require support, and how earnings mix is shifting over time.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyFord Motor (F) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$55.83B
Dividend Yield4.27%
Average Volume (3M)50.88M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.90
Revenue Growth1.47%
EPS Growth-315.47%
CountryUS
Employees169,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.86
Shares Outstanding3,916,743,700
10 Day Avg. Volume52,282,420
30 Day Avg. Volume50,878,381
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.45
Price to Sales (P/S)0.28
P/FCF Ratio4.19
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.89Price Target Upside10.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)1.84
Revenue Forecast (FY)$184.77B
Ford Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ford Motor Company is a global automotive giant, engaged in the design, production, and servicing of a broad spectrum of vehicles. Its product line encompasses Ford trucks, commercial cars and vans, and sport utility vehicles, in addition to luxur...
How the Company Makes Money
Ford makes money primarily by selling vehicles and vehicle-related products and services, and by earning financing-related income through its captive finance operations.
1) Vehicle sales (wholesale/retail economics): Ford generates automotive rev...
Ford Motor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic tone: Ford delivered stronger-than-expected Q2 profitability, raised full‑year adjusted EBIT guidance, demonstrated product and quality momentum (notably in trucks, off‑road, and software/services), and showed tangible progress on EV platform and energy storage initiatives. However, material near‑term headwinds remain—primarily the Novelis aluminum disruption, one‑time charges from the battery JV disposition, Model e losses, and significant commodity costs and investments weighted to the second half. On balance, operational execution, improved mix/pricing, cash/liquidity strength, and upwardly revised guidance outweigh the near‑term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Q2 Profitability and Raised Full-Year EBIT Guidance
Q2 revenue of $48.3 billion (down 4% YoY) with adjusted company EBIT of $2.5 billion, up 17% YoY. Management raised and narrowed full‑year adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.0–$11.0 billion (a $1.0 billion increase at the midpoint).
Negative Updates
Novelis Aluminum Supply Disruption Costs
Novelis disruption resulted in approximately $800 million of temporary costs year‑to‑date; now expect full‑year Novelis‑related cost impact of about $1.5 billion. U.S. inventory at 52 retail days (below target 55–65 days) while recovery continues.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q2 Profitability and Raised Full-Year EBIT Guidance
Q2 revenue of $48.3 billion (down 4% YoY) with adjusted company EBIT of $2.5 billion, up 17% YoY. Management raised and narrowed full‑year adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.0–$11.0 billion (a $1.0 billion increase at the midpoint).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ford raised and narrowed its 2026 company adjusted EBIT guidance to $10.0–$11.0 billion (midpoint +$1.0B) and now expects adjusted free cash flow of $6.0–$7.0 billion (company generated $2.1B in Q2), while maintaining capital expenditures of $9.5–$10.5 billion; segment guidance is Ford Blue EBIT $5.0–$5.5B, Ford Pro EBIT $7.0–$7.5B, Model e losses of ~ $4.0B (including about $1.0B incremental investment in UEV and Ford Energy, mostly H2), and Ford Credit EBT above $2.5B. Key assumptions and puts/takes include a U.S. industry sales (SAR) outlook of 16.0–16.5 million units, commodity headwinds just above $2.0B (with Novelis‑related temporary costs now expected to total ≈$1.5B full year, ~$800M YTD), a planned $1.0B in material and warranty cost reductions in 2026, full‑year U.S. industry pricing ≈+50 basis points, an expected ~$500M cash flow in 2026 of the $1.3B AIEA reimbursement booked in Q1, the vast majority of remaining Blue Oval SK cash charges to be completed by year‑end, inventory at 52 retail days supply (target 55–65), a announced Q3 regular dividend of $0.15 per share, and a Ford Energy capacity target of ~20 GWh annual by late next year.Ford Motor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
38
Negative
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 187.97B | 187.27B | 184.99B | 176.19B | 158.06B | 136.34B |
| Gross Profit | 20.25B | 22.81B | 23.41B | 24.31B | 25.10B | 24.55B |
| EBITDA | -1.78B | -4.58B | 14.21B | 11.79B | 4.74B | 25.54B |
| Net Income | -7.40B | -8.18B | 5.88B | 4.35B | -1.98B | 17.94B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 285.53B | 289.16B | 285.20B | 273.31B | 255.88B | 257.04B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 31.33B | 38.49B | 38.35B | 40.17B | 44.07B | 49.59B |
| Total Debt | 163.30B | 167.57B | 160.86B | 151.11B | 140.47B | 139.49B |
| Total Liabilities | 249.78B | 253.18B | 240.34B | 230.51B | 212.72B | 208.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 35.72B | 35.95B | 44.84B | 42.77B | 43.24B | 48.52B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.28B | 12.47B | 6.74B | 6.68B | -13.00M | 9.56B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.95B | 21.28B | 15.42B | 14.92B | 6.85B | 15.79B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -19.06B | -18.05B | -24.37B | -17.63B | -4.35B | 2.75B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.17B | -3.21B | 7.49B | 2.58B | 2.51B | -23.50B |
Ford Motor Technical Analysis
Positive
14.37
Price Trends
14.21
Negative
13.31
Positive
13.10
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
48.04
Neutral
7.09
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For F, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.37 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.20, above the 50-day MA of 14.21, and above the 200-day MA of 13.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.09 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for F.
Ford Motor Risk Analysis
Ford Motor disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ford Motor reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ford Motor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $221.51B | 8.53 | 11.67% | 3.38% | 3.88% | 4.59% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $1.31T | 282.04 | 4.58% | ― | 11.75% | -37.64% | |
56 Neutral | $77.18B | 44.68 | 3.04% | 0.80% | -1.11% | -67.59% | |
54 Neutral | $55.83B | -7.52 | -18.90% | 4.18% | 1.47% | -315.47% | |
51 Neutral | $41.33B | -42.97 | -3.53% | 4.73% | 0.81% | -128.78% | |
46 Neutral | $13.10B | -48.63 | -2.49% | ― | -23.38% | -123.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
F
Ford Motor
13.98
3.23
30.07%
GM
General Motors
89.35
35.68
66.49%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
31.70
-1.16
-3.54%
TSLA
Tesla
332.81
-8.03
-2.36%
TM
Toyota Motor
189.82
-4.15
-2.14%
LI
Li Auto
12.68
-11.31
-47.14%
Ford Motor Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ford Highlights Q2 2026 U.S. Vehicle Sales Disclosure
Neutral
Jul 2, 2026
Ford Motor Co. reported its U.S. vehicle sales for the second quarter of 2026 in a news release dated July 2, 2026, formally filing the release as part of its corporate disclosure. The filing underscores the importance of quarterly U.S. sales data...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ford exits BlueOval SK, assumes DOE-backed battery loan
Neutral
May 21, 2026
On May 20, 2026, Ford completed the previously announced disposition of its interest in BlueOval SK, the EV battery joint venture formed with SK On and SK Battery America to build plants in Tennessee and Kentucky, resulting in the redemption of Fo...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ford Shareholders Back Leadership, Maintain Governance Structure
Positive
May 19, 2026
At its May 14, 2026 annual meeting, Ford Motor shareholders re-elected the full slate of director nominees, including Executive Chair William Clay Ford Jr., CEO James D. Farley Jr., and several members of the Ford family and independent directors....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.