Ford Motor (F) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $46.72B
• Dividend Yield: 5.64%
• Average Volume (3M): 69.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: 3.75%
• EPS Growth: 33.37%
• Country: US
• Employees: 170,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 0.13
• Shares Outstanding: 3,918,623,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 69,473,165
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 69,879,110
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.19
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.07
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.02
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.88
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 21.15
• 1Y Price Target: $13.95
• Price Target Upside: 19.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $186.87B

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.00 ▲(2.48% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

The score is held down primarily by weaker financial quality (high leverage and volatile profitability despite strong cash flow) and bearish technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Partially offsetting these are a high dividend yield and earnings-call guidance that points to improving 2026 EBIT/FCF, though meaningful EV losses, restructuring charges, and back-half execution risks remain.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, EV transition and working capital. Strong cash generation reduces near-term refinancing pressure, supports discretionary investments and gives management flexibility to absorb restructuring cash needs over the next 2–6 months.

Ford Pro: high‑margin, durable growth

A large, high‑margin commercial business with >42% Class 1–7 U.S. share and growing software/services revenue diversifies earnings away from cyclical retail cars. Durable contract/fleet relationships and subscription revenue support more predictable margins and cash conversion across business cycles.

Financial services & liquidity strength

A profitable captive finance arm and access to diversified funding channels improve funding resiliency and dealer/retail financing competitiveness. Higher-quality retail credit metrics and liquidity cushions help stabilize demand and support vehicle sales financing during industry slowdowns.

Negative Factors

High leverage

Elevated leverage limits financial flexibility and raises vulnerability to earnings volatility or higher interest costs. With a relatively thin equity base versus large assets, shocks to profitability or cash flow could constrain capital allocation and elevate refinancing or covenant risks over the medium term.

Material EV losses & restructuring

Large, multi‑year EV losses and restructuring charges materially weigh on company earnings and consume cash. These costs reflect strategic repositioning that, if execution lags, could delay path to EV profitability and constrain resources for other growth initiatives over the next 2–6 months.

Novelis supply disruption & execution risk

Aluminum supply shocks and associated tariffs/premium freight create persistent production and cost uncertainty. Back‑loaded recovery raises calendarization risk: if mill restart or supply normalization slips, volume, margins and planned improvements could underperform across the medium term.

Ford Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ford Motor Company develops, delivers, and services a range of Ford trucks, commercial cars and vans, sport utility vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, and Ford Pro; Ford Next; and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. It also engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. In addition, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Further, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. The company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

How the Company Makes Money

Ford primarily makes money through (1) selling vehicles and related products and (2) providing financing and other financial services tied to vehicle sales. 1) Vehicle and parts revenue (Automotive) - Wholesale and retail vehicle sales: Ford generates the largest share of its revenue from selling Ford- and Lincoln-branded vehicles. Revenue is recognized largely when vehicles are wholesaled to dealers and other customers (including fleet buyers), and the mix of high-volume nameplates (notably trucks, SUVs, and commercial vans) is a major driver of revenue and profitability. - Fleet and commercial business: Ford earns revenue from selling vehicles to commercial customers (e.g., businesses and government fleets) and from associated upfit- and service-related offerings tied to commercial use cases. - Parts, accessories, and service: Ford sells service parts and accessories to dealers and other channels, benefiting from ongoing maintenance/repair demand over the vehicle lifecycle. - Software and connected services: Ford generates revenue from connected-vehicle services and software-enabled features where applicable (e.g., subscriptions or service fees), including offerings oriented to fleet customers. 2) Financing and related income (Financial Services) - Retail financing and leasing: Through its finance operations, Ford earns interest income and lease revenue by providing loans and leases to retail customers purchasing or leasing Ford and Lincoln vehicles. - Dealer (wholesale) financing: Ford also finances dealer inventory (floorplan financing), earning interest and fees. - Insurance and other financial products: Where offered, ancillary products can contribute fees and other income. 3) Other significant factors affecting earnings - Pricing, incentives, and mix: Profitability depends heavily on vehicle mix (higher-margin segments such as trucks/commercial vehicles), transaction pricing, and incentive spending. - Warranty, recalls, and quality costs: These can materially impact earnings. - Manufacturing scale and commodities: Production volume, plant utilization, labor and logistics costs, and raw material pricing influence margins. - Partnerships and suppliers: Ford works with a broad network of suppliers and may enter technology and commercial collaborations to support electrification, software, and services; specific partnership contributions to earnings are not provided here (null).

Ford Motor Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed. Cash generation is a clear strength (operating cash flow and free cash flow both strong in 2025), but profitability is volatile with a sharp reported reversal in the latest annual period and the balance sheet is highly leveraged (debt-to-equity ~4.5x in 2025), which increases risk and reduces financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue grew solidly from 2021–2024 (with 2023 up ~11% and 2024 up ~5%), but the latest 2025 annual period shows a sharp reversal: revenue down ~122% (as reported) and a swing to a sizable loss (net margin ~-4.4%, EBITDA margin ~-4.9%). Profitability has also been volatile across the period (loss in 2022, very strong profit in 2021, then moderate profits in 2023–2024), which lowers confidence in earnings stability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is high and remains a key constraint: debt-to-equity stayed elevated (~2.9x to ~5.3x historically), and 2025 sits around ~4.5x with total debt ~$163B versus equity ~$36B. Returns to shareholders have been inconsistent, turning negative in 2025 (and also negative in 2022/2020), reflecting earnings volatility against a relatively thin equity base for the size of the asset footprint (~$289B in assets in 2025).

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: operating cash flow is positive every year shown and improved to ~$21.3B in 2025, with free cash flow also strong at ~$21.3B (up sharply versus 2024). However, conversion is uneven across years (free cash flow was slightly negative in 2022), and the large earnings loss in 2025 alongside strong cash flow suggests results may be influenced by non-cash items and/or working-capital timing, which can create volatility quarter to quarter.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	187.27B	184.99B	176.19B	158.06B	136.34B
Gross Profit	22.81B	15.51B	16.16B	17.16B	16.44B
EBITDA	8.53B	14.24B	11.81B	4.76B	25.54B
Net Income	-8.18B	5.88B	4.35B	-1.98B	17.94B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	289.16B	285.20B	273.31B	255.88B	257.04B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	38.49B	38.35B	40.17B	44.07B	49.59B
Total Debt	167.57B	160.86B	151.11B	140.47B	139.49B
Total Liabilities	253.18B	240.34B	230.51B	212.72B	208.41B
Stockholders Equity	35.95B	44.84B	42.77B	43.24B	48.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	12.47B	6.74B	6.68B	-13.00M	9.56B
Operating Cash Flow	21.28B	15.42B	14.92B	6.85B	15.79B
Investing Cash Flow	-18.05B	-24.37B	-17.63B	-4.35B	2.75B
Financing Cash Flow	-3.21B	7.49B	2.58B	2.51B	-23.50B

Ford Motor Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 11.71
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For F, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.09, below the 50-day MA of 13.42, and below the 200-day MA of 12.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.22 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.74 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for F.

Ford Motor Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TM	66 Neutral	$272.91B	8.55	9.96%	2.57%	7.28%	12.41%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
TSLA	60 Neutral	$1.48T	382.27	4.83%	―	-2.93%	-47.22%
GM	59 Neutral	$65.94B	27.72	5.13%	0.69%	-1.29%	-49.96%
HMC	59 Neutral	$32.83B	9.64	4.09%	4.19%	0.32%	-25.51%
LI	55 Neutral	$18.22B	109.05	1.55%	―	-9.99%	-54.75%
F	48 Neutral	$46.72B	-6.38	-18.91%	5.64%	3.75%	33.37%

Ford Motor Corporate Events

Ford Launches Anti-Dilutive Share Repurchase Authorization

Ford Motor Company has launched an anti-dilutive share repurchase program authorizing the buyback of up to 31.7 million shares of its common stock, aiming to offset dilution from share-based compensation expected to be granted in 2026 and from share settlement obligations tied to its 0.00% Senior Convertible Notes due March 15, 2026. The program, which may be executed via open market purchases, private transactions, or Rule 10b5-1 trading plans and funded with existing cash and cash equivalents, gives Ford flexibility to manage its capital structure and share count, though the company is not obligated to repurchase any specific amount and may suspend or discontinue the program at any time.

Ford’s decision to pursue this anti-dilutive buyback framework signals a focus on mitigating the impact of equity compensation and convertible note conversions on existing shareholders, potentially supporting earnings per share and investor confidence. The scale and discretionary nature of the authorization underscore management’s intent to preserve balance sheet strength while maintaining optionality in response to market conditions, regulatory considerations, and prevailing stock price levels.

The most recent analyst rating on (F) stock is a Buy with a $13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ford Motor stock, see the F Stock Forecast page.

Ford projects 2025 pension remeasurement loss, funding stable

Ford Motor Company disclosed that, under its mark-to-market accounting for pension and other postretirement employee benefits, it expects to recognize a pre-tax remeasurement loss of about $0.6 billion in its fourth-quarter 2025 results, split evenly between U.S. and non-U.S. pension plans, with only an immaterial impact from OPEB plans. The loss, driven in the United States by actuarial experience versus assumptions and abroad by changes in key assumptions such as improved life expectancy, is projected to reduce after-tax net income by roughly $0.5 billion in 2025 but will be treated as a special item that does not affect adjusted EBIT, adjusted earnings per share, cash in 2025, or planned 2026 pension contributions; Ford said its funded plans remain fully funded and that, including 2025 remeasurement losses, it expects year-end 2025 underfunded status of about $0.2 billion for pension plans and $4.4 billion for OPEB, compared with $0.5 billion and $4.4 billion respectively at the end of 2024.

The most recent analyst rating on (F) stock is a Buy with a $16.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ford Motor stock, see the F Stock Forecast page.

Ford Motor Reports Fourth-Quarter 2025 U.S. Vehicle Sales

On January 6, 2026, Ford Motor Company reported its U.S. vehicle sales performance for the fourth quarter of 2025, detailing how the automaker’s domestic business fared at the end of the year. The disclosure, made via a news release formally filed with regulators, underscores the importance of U.S. sales trends for Ford’s operational outlook and provides stakeholders with updated data on demand for its lineup in a key market.

The most recent analyst rating on (F) stock is a Hold with a $14.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ford Motor stock, see the F Stock Forecast page.

Ford Restructures EV Joint Venture Amid Market Challenges

Ford Motor Company is adjusting its electric vehicle strategy due to challenging market conditions, which include lower-than-expected EV adoption rates and changes in regulatory and competitive dynamics. On December 9, 2025, Ford entered into a Joint Venture Disposition Agreement with SK On and SK Battery America to restructure its involvement in the BlueOval SK joint venture, leading to a $3 billion pre-tax charge. Additionally, Ford announced the cancellation of several planned EV models and the end of the current generation F-150 Lightning EV production, resulting in an $8.5 billion pre-tax write-down. These strategic moves reflect Ford’s efforts to align its operations with the evolving EV market and address the underutilization of EV production capacity.

The most recent analyst rating on (F) stock is a Hold with a $12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ford Motor stock, see the F Stock Forecast page.