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Ford Motor Company (F)
:F

Ford Motor (F) AI Stock Analysis

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F

Ford Motor

(NYSE:F)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(11.11%Upside)
Ford's overall stock score is 77, driven by strong technical momentum and attractive valuation metrics. Despite high leverage concerns, the company's robust cash flow and stabilization efforts provide a positive financial outlook. Mixed sentiment from the earnings call highlights both the potential for cost improvements and the risks from tariff impacts, warranting cautious optimism.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Ford delivered a solid performance in 1Q:25, and the lower losses in Model e were encouraging.
Market Position
Ford is well-positioned to capitalize on its large US manufacturing footprint, which should enable the automaker to gain market share.
Tariff Relief
The White House released an executive order confirming large relief from auto parts tariffs, which is a major win for OEMs and suppliers.
Negative Factors
Market Demand Risks
Management seemed cautious about market demand risks, indicating concerns about weaker demand in the second half of the year.
Tariff Impact
A $200 million tariff incurred in Q1 had a negative impact on the company's performance.
US Content Regulations
A stricter 'U.S. content' interpretation would more than double Ford’s tariff impact, posing a larger risk compared to other OEMs.

Ford Motor (F) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ford Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFord Motor Company develops, delivers, and services a range of Ford trucks, commercial cars and vans, sport utility vehicles, and Lincoln luxury vehicles worldwide. It operates through Ford Blue, Ford Model e, and Ford Pro; Ford Next; and Ford Credit segments. The company sells Ford and Lincoln vehicles, service parts, and accessories through distributors and dealers, as well as through dealerships to commercial fleet customers, daily rental car companies, and governments. It also engages in vehicle-related financing and leasing activities to and through automotive dealers. In addition, the company provides retail installment sale contracts for new and used vehicles; and direct financing leases for new vehicles to retail and commercial customers, such as leasing companies, government entities, daily rental companies, and fleet customers. Further, it offers wholesale loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and loans to dealers to finance working capital and enhance dealership facilities, purchase dealership real estate, and other dealer vehicle programs. The company was incorporated in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.
How the Company Makes MoneyFord Motor Company generates revenue primarily through the sale of vehicles, parts, and accessories across its Ford and Lincoln brands. The company's revenue streams are segmented into Automotive and Financial Services. The Automotive segment encompasses the design, manufacture, distribution, and service of vehicles, which includes sales of light trucks, SUVs, and cars. The Financial Services segment, primarily through Ford Credit, provides vehicle-related financing, leasing, and insurance products to and through automotive dealers. Ford's earnings are also bolstered by strategic partnerships and investments, particularly in the areas of electric vehicles and autonomous vehicle technology, which position the company for future growth in these emerging markets.

Ford Motor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Wholesale Vehicles Sales
Total Wholesale Vehicles Sales
Measures the overall volume of vehicles sold to wholesalers, reflecting Ford's manufacturing output and market demand.
Chart InsightsFord's vehicle sales have shown a recovery trend post-pandemic, but the latest quarter indicates a dip, likely due to planned downtime for product launches and inventory adjustments. Despite strong pickup sales and market share gains, tariff impacts are creating financial headwinds, leading to suspended full-year guidance. Ford's strategic cost reductions and market optimizations are crucial in offsetting these challenges. Investors should watch for updates on tariff policies and Ford's ability to maintain momentum in its commercial and pickup segments amid these uncertainties.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Ford Motor Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 7.78%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment with notable successes in cost reductions, market share growth, and financial performance. However, significant concerns about tariff impacts and policy uncertainties have led to the suspension of full-year guidance.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Cost and Quality Improvements
Ford is on track to deliver $1 billion in net cost reductions this year, excluding tariff impacts. They have made significant progress in closing the competitive cost gap and improving production stability.
Record Pickup Sales and Market Share Growth
Ford had its best first-quarter US pickup sales in over 20 years and delivered sequential share growth in its home market.
Positive Financial Performance
Ford delivered $1 billion in EBIT, exceeding expectations of roughly breakeven for the quarter, driven by cost improvements and strong net pricing in North America.
Ford Pro Commercial Business Growth
Ford Pro grew its commercial brand leadership in Europe, with a strong market share of over 40% in the US Class 1 to Class 7 truck and van market. Software subscriptions rose by 20% year-over-year.
Improved Vehicle Dependability
Ford and Lincoln were the most improved brands in J.D. Power’s 2025 US Vehicle Dependability Study.
Negative Updates
Tariff-Related Financial Impact
Ford estimates a gross adverse EBIT impact of $2.5 billion due to tariffs, with a net adverse EBIT impact of $1.5 billion for the full year 2025.
Suspension of Full-Year Guidance
Due to material tariff-related near-term risks and potential market dynamics, Ford has suspended its guidance for the full year 2025.
Uncertainty from Policy and Competitive Dynamics
Ford is facing uncertainty related to future tariff policies, competitive responses, and potential industry-wide supply-chain disruptions.
Company Guidance
During Ford Motor Company's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided guidance highlighting several key financial metrics, despite the significant impact of tariffs. Ford initially projected a full-year EBIT within the range of $7 billion to $8.5 billion but had to suspend this guidance due to tariff-related uncertainties. The company estimated a gross adverse EBIT impact of $2.5 billion from tariffs, with a net impact of $1.5 billion after implementing $1 billion in offsetting recovery actions. These offsets involved market equation optimization and cost mitigation strategies. Ford achieved $1 billion in EBIT for the quarter, exceeding expectations. The company also reported a 5% year-over-year decrease in revenue to $41 billion, attributed to planned downtime for product launches and inventory rebalancing. Ford's financial position remained robust, with over $27 billion in cash and $45 billion in liquidity as of March 31st, supported by renewed $18 billion credit facilities. The company plans to update its guidance during the Q2 earnings call.

Ford Motor Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ford Motor's financial health is characterized by strong cash flow generation and decent profitability margins. However, high leverage remains a concern, posing potential risks in economic downturns. The company shows resilience with a stable asset base and improving cash flow metrics, suggesting a positive outlook for future financial stability.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Ford Motor's income statement shows a strong Gross Profit Margin of 13.99% TTM, reflecting effective cost management. The Net Profit Margin of 2.74% TTM is modest, indicating room for profitability improvements. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, but recent figures show stabilization. The EBIT and EBITDA margins of 2.34% and 7.18% TTM, respectively, suggest moderate operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Ford has a high Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 3.54 TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. Return on Equity is 11.24% TTM, reflecting decent returns for shareholders. The Equity Ratio of 15.69% TTM suggests limited equity cushion, but the company maintains a substantial asset base to support operations.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Ford's cash flow statement reveals robust free cash flow generation, with a 38.07% growth rate TTM, indicating strong cash management. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 3.53 TTM highlights efficient cash conversion from operations. The Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 1.85 TTM reflects a solid cash position, supporting its financial flexibility.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue182.87B184.99B176.19B158.06B136.34B127.14B
Gross Profit25.58B26.56B16.16B23.66B21.69B14.39B
EBITDA13.13B14.21B11.82B4.74B25.54B7.99B
Net Income5.02B5.88B4.35B-2.15B17.94B-1.28B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets284.54B285.20B273.31B255.88B257.04B267.26B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments35.23B38.35B40.17B44.07B49.59B49.96B
Total Debt157.78B160.86B151.11B140.47B139.49B163.00B
Total Liabilities239.88B240.34B230.51B212.72B208.41B236.45B
Stockholders Equity44.63B44.84B42.77B43.24B48.52B30.69B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow9.31B6.74B6.68B-13.00M9.56B18.53B
Operating Cash Flow17.72B15.42B14.92B6.85B15.79B24.27B
Investing Cash Flow-18.28B-24.37B-17.63B-4.35B2.75B-18.61B
Financing Cash Flow1.82B7.49B2.58B2.51B-23.50B2.31B

Ford Motor Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price10.80
Price Trends
50DMA
10.28
Positive
100DMA
9.85
Positive
200DMA
9.92
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.12
Negative
RSI
59.27
Neutral
STOCH
49.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For F, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.8 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.46, above the 50-day MA of 10.28, and above the 200-day MA of 9.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for F.

Ford Motor Risk Analysis

Ford Motor disclosed 9 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ford Motor reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ford Motor Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
FF
77
Outperform
$42.95B8.6511.47%5.64%3.03%28.54%
LILI
75
Outperform
$28.24B26.0212.22%10.28%-29.75%
74
Outperform
$1.05T179.169.16%1.03%-53.71%
GMGM
73
Outperform
$46.27B6.938.88%1.22%7.76%-14.17%
HMHMC
71
Outperform
$47.37B8.446.54%3.82%0.83%-26.70%
TMTM
70
Outperform
$227.95B7.4513.36%3.61%1.06%-7.05%
67
Neutral
¥253.98B13.046.57%2.83%5.07%-11.37%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
F
Ford Motor
10.80
-1.03
-8.71%
GM
General Motors
49.68
3.49
7.56%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
29.70
-1.88
-5.95%
TSLA
Tesla
323.63
113.77
54.21%
TM
Toyota Motor
175.74
-27.97
-13.73%
LI
Li Auto
27.47
8.39
43.97%

Ford Motor Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ford Motor Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer
Neutral
May 13, 2025

On May 7, 2025, Ford Motor Company appointed Kyle Crockett as Chief Accounting Officer, effective after the filing of its Quarterly Report for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. Crockett, previously with Carrier Global Corporation, will oversee Ford’s accounting and financial reporting. The Board approved a comprehensive compensation package for Crockett, including a base salary, performance bonus, stock awards, and a sign-on bonus. Additionally, Ford held its Annual Meeting of Shareholders on May 8, 2025, where several proposals were voted on, including the election of directors and the approval of executive compensation. Notably, a proposal on reporting supply chain emissions and net zero goals was rejected.

The most recent analyst rating on (F) stock is a Buy with a $21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ford Motor stock, see the F Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 14, 2025