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Tesla (TSLA)
NASDAQ:TSLA

Tesla (TSLA) AI Stock Analysis

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TSLA

Tesla

(NASDAQ:TSLA)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$483.00
▲(10.13% Upside)
Tesla's strong financial performance and technical indicators are the primary drivers of its stock score. The company's robust earnings call further supports its growth potential, despite valuation concerns due to a high P/E ratio. The absence of a dividend yield also impacts the valuation score.
Positive Factors
Record Deliveries and Financial Performance
Record deliveries and financial performance indicate strong market demand and operational efficiency, supporting Tesla's growth trajectory.
Advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi Expansion
Advancements in FSD and robotaxi expansion highlight Tesla's leadership in autonomous driving technology, potentially opening new revenue streams.
Energy Sector Growth and Megapack Developments
Growth in energy storage with new products strengthens Tesla's position in the renewable energy market, diversifying its revenue base.
Negative Factors
FSD Adoption Challenges
Limited FSD adoption could slow revenue growth from software services, impacting Tesla's ability to capitalize on its autonomous technology.
Tariff Impacts on Energy Business
Tariff impacts on the energy business could pressure margins and profitability, challenging Tesla's expansion in the energy sector.
Challenges in Scaling Optimus Production
Challenges in scaling Optimus production could delay market entry and revenue realization from this innovative product line.

Tesla (TSLA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tesla Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty after-sales vehicle, used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance services. This segment also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners; and provision of service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty, as well as various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyTesla generates revenue primarily through the sale of electric vehicles, which accounts for the largest share of its income. The company offers a diverse range of EV models, catering to different market segments, from luxury to more affordable options. In addition to vehicle sales, Tesla earns money through regulatory credits, which it sells to other automakers who need to comply with emissions regulations. Another significant revenue stream comes from energy generation and storage products, including solar panels and battery systems. Tesla's growing service and maintenance segment also contributes to its earnings, as do software updates and features that enhance vehicle functionality. The company has established partnerships with suppliers and technology firms that enhance its production capabilities and market reach, further supporting its revenue growth.

Tesla Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Tesla is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsTesla's revenue growth in North America and China has been robust, with recent quarters showing significant increases, particularly in North America. The latest earnings call highlights a 28% rise in North American deliveries and a 33% increase in Greater China and APAC, reflecting strong demand and strategic focus in these regions. However, challenges such as tariff impacts and regulatory hurdles in FSD deployment could pose risks. Tesla's commitment to AI and energy storage innovations suggests a strategic pivot towards sustainable growth and technological leadership.
Data provided by:The Fly

Tesla Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a balanced view with strong performance in deliveries, financial metrics, and advancements in AI and energy storage. However, challenges remain in FSD adoption, tariff impacts, legal costs, and scaling Optimus production.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Deliveries and Financial Performance
Q3 2025 saw Tesla set new records for deliveries and financial metrics, including total revenues, energy gross profit, energy margins, and free cash flow. Deliveries increased significantly across all regions, with Greater China and APAC up 33%, North America up 28%, and EMEA up 25%.
Advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi Expansion
Tesla is set to eliminate safety drivers in Austin by the end of the year and expand robotaxi operations to 8-10 metro areas, including Nevada, Florida, and Arizona. FSD has accumulated over 6 billion supervised miles, and version 14 of the software is seeing positive reactions.
Energy Sector Growth and Megapack Developments
Strong demand for Megapack and Powerwall continues, with new products like Megablock and Megapack 4 enhancing Tesla's energy storage capabilities. The Megapack product has seen a surge in demand for AI and data center applications.
Introduction of AI and Optimus Developments
Tesla's AI initiatives and Optimus robot are progressing, with Optimus expected to be a significant product. The Optimus hand and forearm have been highlighted as a complex engineering challenge, but progress is being made.
Financial Strength and Future Growth Plans
Tesla's free cash flow for Q3 was approximately $4 billion, a new record. The company plans to increase CapEx significantly in 2026 to support growth in AI initiatives, including Optimus.
Negative Updates
FSD Adoption Challenges
Despite progress, the total paid FSD customer base remains small, around 12% of the current fleet. Regulatory challenges in regions like China and EMEA are delaying broader deployment.
Tariff Impacts on Energy Business
Tesla faced headwinds in the energy storage business due to increased competition and tariffs, with tariff impacts for Q3 exceeding $400 million.
Legal and Restructuring Costs
Operating expenses increased due to legal expenses related to proceedings and restructuring efforts aimed at reducing costs and improving efficiency.
Challenges in Scaling Optimus Production
Bringing Optimus to market is described as an incredibly difficult task, with significant challenges in hand dexterity and supply chain development.
Company Guidance
In Tesla's third quarter 2025 earnings call, significant metrics were highlighted, illustrating the company's robust performance and strategic advancements. The company set new records in deliveries and deployments, along with financial metrics such as total revenues, energy gross profit, energy margins, and free cash flow, which reached approximately $4 billion. Tesla reported a 29% increase in automotive revenues, while automotive margins, excluding credits, rose marginally from 15% to 15.4%. Geographically, deliveries showed strong performance, with Greater China and APAC up 33%, North America up 28%, and EMEA up 25%. Tesla's energy storage business also achieved record deployments and margins despite tariff impacts exceeding $400 million. The company emphasized its focus on AI, with developments in full self-driving technology, robotaxi deployment, and the upcoming Optimus robot, reflecting Tesla's commitment to sustainable abundance and innovation in real-world AI applications.

Tesla Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tesla demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and profitability. The balance sheet is robust with low leverage, and cash flow generation is solid. While there are some fluctuations in margins and free cash flow, the company maintains a stable financial trajectory, positioning it well for future growth.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Tesla's income statement shows a solid performance with a consistent revenue growth trend, albeit at a slower pace recently. The gross profit margin has decreased over time, indicating potential cost pressures. However, the net profit margin remains positive, reflecting effective cost management. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown some volatility but remain healthy, supporting overall profitability.
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Tesla's balance sheet is strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity has decreased from its peak but remains robust, showcasing efficient use of shareholder funds. The equity ratio is healthy, suggesting a stable financial position with a good proportion of assets financed by equity.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Tesla's cash flow statement highlights a positive trend in operating cash flow, which supports ongoing operations. Free cash flow has shown significant growth recently, although it has been volatile in the past. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is stable, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue95.63B97.69B96.77B81.46B53.82B31.54B
Gross Profit16.26B17.45B17.66B20.85B13.61B6.63B
EBITDA13.21B14.71B14.80B17.66B9.63B4.22B
Net Income5.27B7.13B15.00B12.58B5.52B721.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets133.74B122.07B106.62B82.34B62.13B52.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments42.23B36.56B29.09B22.18B17.71B19.38B
Total Debt13.79B13.62B9.57B5.75B8.87B13.28B
Total Liabilities53.02B48.39B43.01B36.44B30.55B28.47B
Stockholders Equity79.97B72.91B62.63B44.70B30.19B22.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow6.83B3.58B4.36B7.55B3.48B2.70B
Operating Cash Flow15.75B14.92B13.26B14.72B11.50B5.94B
Investing Cash Flow-16.55B-18.79B-15.58B-11.97B-7.87B-3.13B
Financing Cash Flow1.41B3.85B2.59B-3.53B-5.20B9.97B

Tesla Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price438.57
Price Trends
50DMA
443.07
Negative
100DMA
429.11
Positive
200DMA
369.12
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-3.49
Positive
RSI
44.39
Neutral
STOCH
43.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSLA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 438.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 455.48, below the 50-day MA of 443.07, and above the 200-day MA of 369.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -3.49 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSLA.

Tesla Risk Analysis

Tesla disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tesla reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tesla Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$305.97B9.8312.51%2.57%7.30%12.42%
73
Outperform
$1.46T292.337.03%-1.56%-59.09%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
55
Neutral
$16.63B27.106.53%-10.00%-54.75%
53
Neutral
$20.92B-5.36-65.28%28.21%44.43%
45
Neutral
$10.39B-3.24-296.45%14.94%2.53%
41
Neutral
$3.26B-0.94-61.12%45.86%22.13%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSLA
Tesla
437.50
11.00
2.58%
TM
Toyota Motor
231.42
50.64
28.01%
NIO
Nio
4.71
0.35
8.03%
LI
Li Auto
16.19
-6.40
-28.33%
LCID
Lucid Group
10.12
-20.58
-67.04%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
16.67
2.46
17.31%

Tesla Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Tesla Shareholders Approve Key Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Nov 7, 2025

On November 6, 2025, Tesla‘s shareholders approved several proposals at the annual meeting, including the amended and restated 2019 Equity Incentive Plan, which aims to attract and retain employees and consultants through various stock-based awards. The meeting also saw the election of Class III directors and approval of executive compensation and the 2025 CEO Performance Award. However, several shareholder proposals, including those related to sustainability metrics and a child labor audit, were not approved. The approval of the A&R 2019 Equity Incentive Plan is expected to enhance Tesla’s ability to incentivize its workforce, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSLA) stock is a Sell with a $247.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tesla stock, see the TSLA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 26, 2025