Tesla (TSLA)
NASDAQ:TSLA
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Tesla
(NASDAQ:TSLA)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$411.00
▲(2.59% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/23/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial capacity (strong balance sheet and ongoing cash generation) tempered by materially compressed profitability and weaker cash conversion. A very high P/E meaningfully drags the rating, while technicals are mixed and the latest call reinforces strong long-term initiatives but higher near-term cash flow pressure from heavy CapEx and production constraints.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Very low leverage and meaningful equity growth provide durable financial flexibility to fund multi-year investments and absorb cyclical shocks. This reduces refinancing risk, supports capital allocation choices and underpins the company’s ability to execute large factory, chip and AI programs over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Very heavy multi-year CapEx
Management’s >$25B CapEx plan will pressure free cash flow and require disciplined capital allocation. Even with a strong balance sheet, prolonged negative FCF raises execution and timing risks, could defer returns on capital and forces prioritization among factories, chip fabs and product launches.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Very low leverage and meaningful equity growth provide durable financial flexibility to fund multi-year investments and absorb cyclical shocks. This reduces refinancing risk, supports capital allocation choices and underpins the company’s ability to execute large factory, chip and AI programs over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Tesla (TSLA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.43T
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)64.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)612.1
Beta (1Y)1.77
Revenue Growth2.25%
EPS Growth-39.81%
CountryUS
Employees125,665
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.41
Shares Outstanding3,755,723,900
10 Day Avg. Volume72,559,724
30 Day Avg. Volume64,123,966
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-8.12
Price to Book (P/B)17.66
Price to Sales (P/S)15.29
P/FCF Ratio233.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.97
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit74.63
Enterprise Value/Ebitda132.93
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$410.21Price Target Upside2.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering30
EPS Forecast (FY)1.93
Revenue Forecast (FY)$102.78B
Tesla Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storag...
How the Company Makes Money
Tesla makes money primarily through the sale and leasing of electric vehicles, supported by software, services, and energy products. Its major revenue streams include: (1) Automotive sales: revenue from selling new vehicles (e.g., Model 3/Y, Model...
Tesla Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breakdown of Tesla’s revenue by region, showing which markets drive sales growth and where exposure to local economic conditions, regulation, or currency moves could affect results.
Breakdown of Tesla’s revenue by region, showing which markets drive sales growth and where exposure to local economic conditions, regulation, or currency moves could affect results.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTesla Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive long-term strategic outlook driven by rapid progress on AI (AI5/Dojo), strong FSD adoption, product roadmaps (Optimus, Cybercab, Semi), factory throughput gains (Giga Berlin) and high energy gross margins. However, the near term contains notable operational and financial headwinds: a sharp sequential decline in energy deployments (−38%), battery pack capacity constraints limiting vehicle growth, significant multi‑year CapEx (over $25B) that will suppress free cash flow, mark-to-market Bitcoin losses (−22% q/q), tariff uncertainty and hardware retrofit requirements for unsupervised FSD. Overall, management’s tone was confident and forward‑looking, but the company is trading short‑term profitability and cash flow for large strategic investments that should benefit growth and margins longer term.Positive Updates
Large, Strategic Capital Investment Plan
Management announced a major increase in capital expenditures to fund batteries, AI, chip fabs, Optimus and factory expansion — targeting over $25 billion of CapEx across 2025–2026 to position Tesla for significantly higher future production and revenue.
Negative Updates
Energy Deployments Declined Sequentially
Energy storage deployments were 8.8 GWh in Q1, a 38% sequential decline, reflecting lumpy demand and timing volatility in the energy storage business despite a strong order backlog and expectation that 2026 deployments will exceed 2025.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Large, Strategic Capital Investment Plan
Management announced a major increase in capital expenditures to fund batteries, AI, chip fabs, Optimus and factory expansion — targeting over $25 billion of CapEx across 2025–2026 to position Tesla for significantly higher future production and revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated a very investment‑heavy 2026, guiding to over $25 billion of CapEx for 2025–2026 to fund six factories and AI/robotics initiatives (expecting negative free cash flow for the rest of the year after Q1 free cash flow of just over $1.4 billion); Q1 operational metrics included Giga Berlin output of >61,000 units, the highest Q1 order backlog in over two years, and auto margins (ex‑credits) improving sequentially from 17.9% to 19.2% (with ~$230M of warranty true‑downs and some tariff relief), while energy deployments were 6–8.8 GWh (a 38% sequential decline) but 2026 deployments are expected to exceed 2025 and energy gross margin ran >39.5% (helped by >$250M of tariff recognitions). On software and product timing, FSD reached nearly 1.3M paid customers (≈180k net new this quarter, subscriptions driving most growth; upfront purchases +7%), unsupervised FSD is targeted for gradual fleet rollout with customer availability likely in Q4 and Robotaxi revenue expected modest in 2026 but material next year, v14.3 is a key step with v15 due later, HW3 lacks the memory bandwidth for unsupervised FSD (1/8 of HW4), AI5 is taped out, an AI4.1 upgrade (32GB per SoC → 64GB total, ~10% compute uplift) is targeted mid‑next year, a ~$3B research fab (a few thousand wafers/month) is planned, and Optimus production is assumed to start in late July–August with a second Giga Texas Optimus line aimed for summer next year.Tesla Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
84
Very Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 97.88B | 94.83B | 97.69B | 96.77B | 81.46B | 53.82B |
| Gross Profit | 18.66B | 17.09B | 17.45B | 17.66B | 20.85B | 13.61B |
| EBITDA | 10.48B | 11.76B | 14.71B | 14.80B | 17.66B | 9.63B |
| Net Income | 3.88B | 3.79B | 7.13B | 15.00B | 12.58B | 5.52B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 143.72B | 137.81B | 122.07B | 106.62B | 82.34B | 62.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 44.74B | 44.06B | 36.56B | 29.09B | 22.18B | 17.71B |
| Total Debt | 9.23B | 8.38B | 13.62B | 9.57B | 5.75B | 8.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 58.98B | 54.94B | 48.39B | 43.01B | 36.44B | 30.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 84.11B | 82.14B | 72.91B | 62.63B | 44.70B | 30.19B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 7.00B | 6.22B | 3.58B | 4.36B | 7.55B | 3.48B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.53B | 14.75B | 14.92B | 13.26B | 14.72B | 11.50B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -18.85B | -15.48B | -18.79B | -15.58B | -11.97B | -7.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.64B | 1.14B | 3.85B | 2.59B | -3.53B | -5.20B |
Tesla Technical Analysis
Positive
400.62
Price Trends
390.33
Positive
417.45
Negative
398.87
Positive
Market Momentum
-3.22
Negative
60.31
Neutral
91.09
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSLA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 400.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 367.80, above the 50-day MA of 390.33, and above the 200-day MA of 398.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -3.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.09 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSLA.
Tesla Risk Analysis
Tesla disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tesla reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tesla Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $250.82B | 8.55 | 9.96% | 2.57% | 9.27% | -25.00% | |
62 Neutral | $1.43T | 612.14 | 4.79% | ― | 2.25% | -39.81% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $15.54B | 79.91 | -984.82% | ― | 33.72% | 36.29% | |
56 Neutral | $17.61B | 109.05 | 1.55% | ― | -22.18% | -86.28% | |
55 Neutral | $20.35B | -11.30 | -66.53% | ― | 10.43% | 21.58% | |
46 Neutral | $2.10B | -1.22 | -133.09% | ― | 67.58% | 7.56% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSLA
Tesla
390.82
110.56
39.45%
TM
Toyota Motor
188.71
-3.77
-1.96%
NIO
Nio
5.91
1.93
48.49%
LI
Li Auto
17.57
-7.68
-30.42%
LCID
Lucid Group
6.54
-17.06
-72.29%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
15.02
1.47
10.85%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.