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Tesla Motors (TSLA)
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Tesla (TSLA) AI Stock Analysis

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TSLA

Tesla

(NASDAQ:TSLA)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$363.00
▲(17.58% Upside)
Tesla's overall stock score reflects strong financial health and strategic advancements in technology and energy. While technical indicators and high valuation present challenges, the company's robust earnings call and leadership retention efforts provide a positive outlook for future growth.
Positive Factors
Growth Opportunities
Tesla's capabilities in physical AI, including data, robotics, energy storage, and manufacturing, offer growth and margin opportunities that greatly exceed those of the traditional EV business.
Market Position
Tesla is positioned as a top pick in US autos due to its strengths in data, robotics, energy, AI, manufacturing, and infrastructure.
Service Expansion
Successfully launched Robotaxi service in Austin. Expansion is expected and Tesla believes it could address half of the U.S. population by year-end.
Negative Factors
Desirability Decline
Tesla's desirability hits a new low at 5% of responses, down sharply from 11% last year and falling for the 4th straight year from a peak of 30% in 2021.
Financial Performance
Total revenue of $22.5 billion missed our forecast by 1.4%, increased 16.3% sequentially, and declined 11.8% year-over-year.
Market Share Loss
TSLA continues to lose market share in China, dropping from 8% to 5%.

Tesla (TSLA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tesla Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty after-sales vehicle, used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance services. This segment also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners; and provision of service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty, as well as various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyTesla makes money primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles, which constitute the majority of its revenue. The company also generates income from energy generation and storage products, including solar panels and battery systems like the Powerwall, Powerpack, and Megapack. Additionally, Tesla offers services and other revenue streams, such as vehicle servicing, sales of regulatory credits to other automakers, and through its Supercharger network. The company's strategic partnerships, advances in autonomous driving technology, and expansion into global markets also play significant roles in contributing to its earnings.

Tesla Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Vehicles Delivered
Total Vehicles Delivered
Counts the total number of vehicles delivered to customers, indicating sales performance and market demand for Tesla's products.
Chart InsightsTesla's vehicle deliveries have faced volatility, with recent declines attributed to factory updates and brand challenges. Despite these setbacks, Tesla remains resilient, maintaining strong demand and achieving record test drives. The focus on autonomous technology and localized supply chains could mitigate current delivery issues and enhance future growth. The company's strategic shift towards affordable models and new production lines by mid-2025 aims to stabilize deliveries and capitalize on emerging opportunities in autonomy and energy storage.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Tesla Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 23, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -7.17%|
Next Earnings Date:Oct 15, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in autonomy, energy growth, and financial performance. However, challenges such as regulatory changes, tariffs, and potential near-term financial impacts were noted. Despite these challenges, the overall outlook remains optimistic with strong advancements in key technology areas.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Launch of Robotaxi Service
Successfully launched robotaxi service in Austin with plans to expand to half of the U.S. by the end of the year, subject to regulatory approvals.
Model Y Achievements
Model Y became the best-selling car in Turkey, Netherlands, Switzerland, and Austria, and continues to be the best-selling car globally.
Energy Segment Growth
Record powerwall deployment in Q2 and expanding Megapack capacity despite challenges, indicating strong growth potential in energy storage.
Improvements in Full Self-Driving (FSD)
FSD adoption has increased with version 12, showing cars on FSD are 10x safer. A 25% increase in FSD adoption since the last update.
Advancements in Optimus
Optimus 3 design finalized with scale production expected next year, aiming for 1 million units per year in 5 years.
Positive Financial Performance
Automotive revenue increased by 19% sequentially, despite a 14% increase in deliveries, due to improved Average Selling Prices (ASPs).
Negative Updates
Impact of Regulatory Changes in the U.S.
The repeal of the IRA EV credit and changes in emissions standards will negatively impact vehicle supply, regulatory credit sales, and future revenue.
Challenges in China and Europe
Regulatory challenges in China and Europe are hindering the release of supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD), impacting demand.
Tariff and Supply Chain Challenges
Increased costs from tariffs, with $300 million impact in Q2 and expected to increase, affecting automotive and energy segments.
Potential Near-Term Financial Impacts
Possible rough quarters ahead due to loss of incentives in the U.S., which could impact vehicle sales and financial performance.
Company Guidance
During the call, Tesla provided comprehensive guidance on several key metrics and business developments. Elon Musk highlighted the successful launch of the robotaxi service in Austin, predicting it could cover half of the U.S. population by the end of the year, subject to regulatory approvals. The Model Y achieved recognition as the best-selling car in several countries, including Turkey and the Netherlands. Tesla continues to focus on advancing full self-driving (FSD) capabilities, with FSD-equipped vehicles proving to be 10 times safer than those without. The company reported a 19% sequential increase in automotive revenue, driven by improved average selling prices and a 14% rise in deliveries. However, Tesla is facing challenges from the repeal of the $7,500 IRA EV credit and increased tariffs, which have impacted costs by approximately $300 million. Energy storage remains a growth area, with record powerwall deployments and expansion plans for the Megapack. Tesla is also advancing the development of humanoid robots, with Optimus prototypes expected by the year's end and a production target of one million units annually within five years. Despite near-term challenges, Tesla remains optimistic about future growth and aims to maintain robust investment in AI and robotics.

Tesla Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tesla's financial performance is solid, demonstrated by strong profitability metrics and a robust balance sheet. Despite a slight decline in annual revenue growth, Tesla maintains high margins, low leverage, and significant liquidity, positioning it well for future growth.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Tesla's income statement demonstrates robust profitability and revenue growth over the years. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is healthy at 17.48%, and the net profit margin stands at 6.58%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the revenue growth rate from the previous annual period is slightly negative, indicating a temporary slowdown. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong at 6.06% and 12.55%, respectively, contributing to overall profitability.
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Tesla's balance sheet is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09, indicating minimal leverage. The return on equity (ROE) is impressive at 7.89%, showcasing effective shareholder value generation. The equity ratio of 60.14% reflects a strong equity base relative to total assets, ensuring financial stability. The company maintains substantial cash reserves, enhancing its liquidity position.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The cash flow statement highlights Tesla's strong operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.58, indicating excellent cash generation capability. Although the free cash flow growth rate is positive, the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.92, suggesting room for improvement in translating profits into free cash flow. The company effectively manages capital expenditures, balancing growth and liquidity.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue92.72B97.69B96.77B81.46B53.82B31.54B
Gross Profit16.21B17.45B17.66B20.85B13.61B6.63B
EBITDA13.78B14.71B14.80B17.66B9.63B4.22B
Net Income6.10B7.13B15.00B12.58B5.52B721.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets128.57B122.07B106.62B82.34B62.13B52.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments36.78B36.56B29.09B22.18B17.71B19.38B
Total Debt13.13B13.62B9.57B5.75B8.87B13.28B
Total Liabilities50.49B48.39B43.01B36.44B30.55B28.47B
Stockholders Equity77.31B72.91B62.63B44.70B30.19B22.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow5.59B3.58B4.36B7.55B3.48B2.70B
Operating Cash Flow15.77B14.92B13.26B14.72B11.50B5.94B
Investing Cash Flow-15.07B-18.79B-15.58B-11.97B-7.87B-3.13B
Financing Cash Flow563.00M3.85B2.59B-3.53B-5.20B9.97B

Tesla Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price308.72
Price Trends
50DMA
321.84
Negative
100DMA
298.39
Positive
200DMA
322.49
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.17
Positive
RSI
46.11
Neutral
STOCH
25.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSLA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 308.72 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 316.35, below the 50-day MA of 321.84, and below the 200-day MA of 322.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSLA.

Tesla Risk Analysis

Tesla disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tesla reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Demand for our products and services and our financial results may be impacted by the status of government and economic incentives supporting the development and adoption of such products. Q2, 2025

Tesla Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (67)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$995.76B185.268.43%-2.73%-51.64%
77
Outperform
$237.02B7.7012.05%3.01%1.06%-7.05%
72
Outperform
$50.06B8.377.07%0.97%5.34%-28.29%
71
Outperform
$44.02B14.117.11%6.93%2.72%-17.58%
71
Outperform
$50.61B8.985.17%4.33%0.83%-26.70%
68
Neutral
$26.26B22.9212.22%10.28%-29.75%
67
Neutral
¥265.08B13.266.53%2.53%5.21%-14.31%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSLA
Tesla
308.72
109.88
55.26%
F
Ford Motor
11.06
1.52
15.93%
GM
General Motors
52.58
10.30
24.36%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
31.62
3.32
11.73%
TM
Toyota Motor
181.50
12.13
7.16%
LI
Li Auto
25.59
5.86
29.70%

Tesla Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Tesla Approves Special Compensation Package for Elon Musk
Positive
Aug 4, 2025

On August 3, 2025, Tesla‘s Board of Directors approved a special compensation package for CEO Elon Musk, granting him 96 million shares of restricted stock under the 2019 Equity Incentive Plan. This award, recommended by a Special Committee, is part of Tesla’s efforts to retain Musk’s leadership as the company navigates a critical inflection point, transitioning into AI and robotics. The award is structured with a two-year vesting period and a five-year holding requirement, with provisions to prevent ‘double dipping’ if Musk’s 2018 CEO Performance Award is reinstated by the courts. The decision reflects Tesla’s commitment to honoring past agreements and incentivizing Musk to continue driving shareholder value amid ongoing legal challenges and competitive pressures in the AI talent market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSLA) stock is a Buy with a $380.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tesla stock, see the TSLA Stock Forecast page.

Shareholder MeetingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesla Sets Deadlines for Shareholder Proposals and Nominations
Neutral
Jul 10, 2025

Tesla‘s board of directors has scheduled the 2025 annual meeting of shareholders for November 6, 2025. Shareholders wishing to submit proposals for inclusion in the proxy statement must do so by July 31, 2025, while nominations for director elections without inclusion in proxy materials must be submitted between July 9, 2025, and August 8, 2025. These deadlines ensure compliance with SEC rules and Tesla’s bylaws, impacting how shareholders can participate in the meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSLA) stock is a Sell with a $120.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tesla stock, see the TSLA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesla Updates Bylaws Following Texas Law Changes
Neutral
May 16, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Tesla‘s Board of Directors adopted amendments to the company’s Bylaws in response to changes in Texas law. These amendments include a jury trial waiver for internal entity claims, an ownership threshold for shareholders to initiate derivative proceedings, and clarifications to the exclusive forum provision. These changes are intended to align with Texas law and became effective immediately, potentially impacting shareholder rights and corporate governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSLA) stock is a Buy with a $380.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tesla stock, see the TSLA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 07, 2025