Tesla (TSLA)
NASDAQ:TSLA
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Tesla
(NASDAQ:TSLA)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$366.00
▲(4.89% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:01/30/26
The score is anchored by Tesla’s solid balance sheet and sustained cash generation but is held back by sharply weaker growth and profitability into 2025. Technicals are bearish (below key moving averages with negative MACD), and valuation is a major headwind given the very high P/E. The earnings call adds some support via margin improvement and energy/FSD/autonomy progress, but near-term delivery softness and the >$20B CapEx ramp raise execution and cash-burn risk.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength
Very low leverage and a substantial equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing risk, supports sustained investment in factories and R&D, and gives the company capacity to absorb cyclical shocks or fund strategic projects without immediate external funding.
Negative Factors
Revenue growth slowdown and margin erosion
A sustained decline in top-line growth and compressed gross/net margins signals structural pressure on pricing, mix, or cost base. Weaker profitability reduces internal funding capacity, lowers returns on invested capital, and complicates funding for strategic, capital-intensive initiatives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength
Very low leverage and a substantial equity base provide durable financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing risk, supports sustained investment in factories and R&D, and gives the company capacity to absorb cyclical shocks or fund strategic projects without immediate external funding.
Read all positive factors
Tesla (TSLA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.31T
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)61.66M
Price to Earnings (P/E)432.5
Beta (1Y)1.81
Revenue Growth-2.93%
EPS Growth-47.22%
CountryUS
Employees125,665
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.50
Shares Outstanding3,752,432,000
10 Day Avg. Volume63,966,923
30 Day Avg. Volume61,656,734
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-8.12
Price to Book (P/B)17.66
Price to Sales (P/S)15.29
P/FCF Ratio233.17
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.72
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit76.12
Enterprise Value/Ebitda110.61
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$392.63Price Target Upside12.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering31
EPS Forecast (FY)1.95
Revenue Forecast (FY)$103.61B
Tesla Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storag...
How the Company Makes Money
Tesla makes money primarily through the sale and leasing of electric vehicles, supported by software, services, and energy products. Its major revenue streams include: (1) Automotive sales: revenue from selling new vehicles (e.g., Model 3/Y, Model...
Tesla Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Details where Tesla earns sales across regions, highlighting concentration risk (for example China or the U.S.), exposure to local incentives or tariffs, and where future growth opportunities lie.
Details where Tesla earns sales across regions, highlighting concentration risk (for example China or the U.S.), exposure to local incentives or tariffs, and where future growth opportunities lie.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTesla Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call outlines significant operational progress and record performance in key areas — improved automotive margins, strong FSD adoption, record energy revenue and gross margin, and concrete autonomy/robotaxi milestones (unsupervised rides and expanding fleet). At the same time, it candidly describes material near-term challenges: a 16% sequential drop in deliveries, battery pack constraints, margin pressure from the FSD subscription shift, rising operating expenses (+$500 million), Bitcoin and FX hits to net income, and a very large >$20 billion CapEx plan that elevates cash burn and funding risk. The company frames these negatives as temporary or strategic trade-offs to fund acceleration into autonomy, Optimus, chips, and solar — positioning for long-term growth while accepting near-term margin and cash pressure.Positive Updates
Sequential Improvement in Automotive Margins
Automotive margins excluding credits rose sequentially from 15.4% to 17.9% (up 2.5 percentage points), with automotive gross profit flat sequentially despite a 16% decline in deliveries due to favorable regional mix (higher APAC and EMEA share).
Negative Updates
Sequential Decline in Deliveries
Vehicle deliveries declined 16% sequentially, pressuring volume-driven fixed cost absorption and constraining near-term revenue and margin dynamics despite flat automotive gross profit.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Sequential Improvement in Automotive Margins
Automotive margins excluding credits rose sequentially from 15.4% to 17.9% (up 2.5 percentage points), with automotive gross profit flat sequentially despite a 16% decline in deliveries due to favorable regional mix (higher APAC and EMEA share).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Tesla guided to an aggressive 2026 investment phase with CapEx expected in excess of $20 billion (after 2025 CapEx came in slightly below prior ~$9B guidance), funding six new factories (refinery, LFP, CyberCab, Semi, a new mega factory and Optimus) while holding over $44 billion in cash and investments; Q4 free cash flow was $1.4 billion, operating expenses rose by ~$500 million sequentially, and net income was hurt by a 23% markdown on Bitcoin and FX headwinds. On margins and revenue, automotive gross margin excluding credits improved from 15.4% to 17.9% and automotive gross profit was flat despite deliveries falling 16% sequentially, services & other margin declined from 10.5% to 8.8%, and total gross margin exceeded 20.1%. Energy finished the year with nearly $12.8 billion in revenue (up 26.6% YoY) and record deployments, while FSD reached ~1.1 million paid customers (~70% upfront purchases) as Tesla shifts to a subscription model (near‑term margin headwind); Tesla expects fully autonomous vehicles in roughly a quarter to a half of the U.S. by year‑end (dozens of major cities), reports over ~500 robotaxi vehicles in service today with fleet growth accelerating, and targets a long‑term Optimus run rate of ~1 million units/year.Tesla Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 94.83B | 97.69B | 96.77B | 81.46B | 53.82B |
| Gross Profit | 17.09B | 17.45B | 17.66B | 20.85B | 13.61B |
| EBITDA | 11.76B | 14.71B | 14.80B | 17.66B | 9.63B |
| Net Income | 3.79B | 7.13B | 15.00B | 12.58B | 5.52B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 137.81B | 122.07B | 106.62B | 82.34B | 62.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 44.06B | 36.56B | 29.09B | 22.18B | 17.71B |
| Total Debt | 8.38B | 13.62B | 9.57B | 5.75B | 8.87B |
| Total Liabilities | 54.94B | 48.39B | 43.01B | 36.44B | 30.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 82.14B | 72.91B | 62.63B | 44.70B | 30.19B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.22B | 3.58B | 4.36B | 7.55B | 3.48B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.75B | 14.92B | 13.26B | 14.72B | 11.50B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.48B | -18.79B | -15.58B | -11.97B | -7.87B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.14B | 3.85B | 2.59B | -3.53B | -5.20B |
Tesla Technical Analysis
Negative
348.95
Price Trends
394.31
Negative
418.60
Negative
397.35
Negative
Market Momentum
-14.47
Positive
37.11
Neutral
18.83
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSLA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 348.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 370.85, below the 50-day MA of 394.31, and below the 200-day MA of 397.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -14.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSLA.
Tesla Risk Analysis
Tesla disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tesla reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tesla Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $271.57B | 8.55 | 9.96% | 2.57% | 7.28% | 12.41% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $1.31T | 432.45 | 4.83% | ― | -2.93% | -47.22% | |
55 Neutral | $19.34B | 109.05 | 1.55% | ― | -9.99% | -54.75% | |
47 Neutral | $2.81B | -1.22 | -133.09% | ― | 45.86% | 22.13% | |
47 Neutral | $19.15B | -7.49 | -66.53% | ― | 28.21% | 44.43% | |
45 Neutral | $13.97B | ― | -984.82% | ― | 14.94% | 2.53% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSLA
Tesla
348.95
96.60
38.28%
TM
Toyota Motor
210.64
38.64
22.47%
NIO
Nio
6.50
2.89
80.06%
LI
Li Auto
19.21
-4.64
-19.45%
LCID
Lucid Group
8.58
-16.72
-66.09%
RIVN
Rivian Automotive
15.43
3.40
28.26%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.