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Tesla Motors (TSLA)
:TSLA

Tesla (TSLA) AI Stock Analysis

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Tesla

(NASDAQ:TSLA)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$315.00
▲(6.73%Upside)
Tesla's overall score reflects its strong financial performance and promising developments in autonomy and energy storage, offset by technical bearish signals and high valuation concerns. The company's strategic focus on innovation suggests long-term growth potential, though short-term challenges remain.
Positive Factors
CEO Influence
The recent 50% rally in Tesla's stock was driven by hopes that Elon Musk would refocus time and attention on Tesla.
Growth Opportunities
Tesla's capabilities in key areas like physical AI, robotics, energy storage, and infrastructure offer growth and margin opportunities that exceed those of the traditional EV business.
Leadership in Technology
Tesla still holds many valuable cards that are largely apolitical, such as AI leadership, autonomy, manufacturing, and renewable power.
Negative Factors
Delivery Challenges
Deliveries from China production are down 17% and EU deliveries are tracking approximately 40% lower, posing downside risk to deliveries.
Market Competition
BYD announced sweeping price cuts across its model range from 10% to nearly 30%, highlighting a 'race to the bottom' in global EV prices.
Political Risks
The disagreement between Elon Musk and President Trump could potentially alienate multiple sides of the political spectrum, affecting Tesla demand.

Tesla (TSLA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tesla Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells electric vehicles, and energy generation and storage systems in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Automotive, and Energy Generation and Storage. The Automotive segment offers electric vehicles, as well as sells automotive regulatory credits; and non-warranty after-sales vehicle, used vehicles, retail merchandise, and vehicle insurance services. This segment also provides sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct and used vehicle sales, a network of Tesla Superchargers, and in-app upgrades; purchase financing and leasing services; services for electric vehicles through its company-owned service locations and Tesla mobile service technicians; and vehicle limited warranties and extended service plans. The Energy Generation and Storage segment engages in the design, manufacture, installation, sale, and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products, and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers and utilities through its website, stores, and galleries, as well as through a network of channel partners; and provision of service and repairs to its energy product customers, including under warranty, as well as various financing options to its solar customers. The company was formerly known as Tesla Motors, Inc. and changed its name to Tesla, Inc. in February 2017. Tesla, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyTesla makes money primarily through the sale of its electric vehicles, which constitute the majority of its revenue. The company also generates income from energy generation and storage products, including solar panels and battery systems like the Powerwall, Powerpack, and Megapack. Additionally, Tesla offers services and other revenue streams, such as vehicle servicing, sales of regulatory credits to other automakers, and through its Supercharger network. The company's strategic partnerships, advances in autonomous driving technology, and expansion into global markets also play significant roles in contributing to its earnings.

Tesla Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Vehicles Delivered
Total Vehicles Delivered
Summarizes all vehicles delivered over a period, providing a comprehensive view of sales volume and market reach.
Chart InsightsTesla's vehicle deliveries continue to grow, with a notable dip in Q1 2025 due to production challenges from new model transitions. Despite this, the company achieved record deliveries in 2024, driven by the Model Y's global success. The earnings call highlights Tesla's focus on autonomy and energy storage as key growth areas, with significant investments in AI and new model introductions planned for 2025. However, short-term production disruptions and regulatory uncertainties pose risks to margins and profitability.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Tesla Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 24.02%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Tesla's Q1 earnings call presented several positive developments, including record profits in energy storage and advancements in autonomous technology. However, challenges such as delivery declines, tariff impacts, and supply chain constraints for the Optimus project offset these achievements.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Gross Profit in Energy Storage
Tesla's energy storage business achieved a record gross profit in Q1, despite a sequential decline in deployments.
Advancements in Autonomous Technology
Tesla plans to launch fully autonomous rides in Austin starting in June, with a large-scale rollout expected by the middle of next year.
Successful Factory Upgrade
Tesla successfully updated its factories globally for the Model Y, the best-selling car in the world, all within the first quarter.
High Interest and Demand
Despite challenges, Tesla had a record number of test drives globally in Q1, with the Model Y remaining the best-selling car in California.
Localized Supply Chains
Tesla has established localized supply chains in North America, Europe, and China, reducing tariff impact and logistics risks.
Negative Updates
Decline in Vehicle Deliveries
There was a decline in vehicle deliveries in Q1 due to factory updates and vandalism/hostility towards the brand.
Tariff and Regulatory Challenges
Tesla faces challenges due to new tariffs affecting profitability, particularly in the energy business, and the need for export licenses for rare earth magnets.
Brand Image Concerns
Negative articles and hostility have impacted Tesla's brand image, although demand remains strong.
Supply Chain Constraints for Optimus
The Optimus robot program is affected by supply chain issues, particularly due to China's export requirements for rare earth magnets.
Bitcoin Loss Impact
Tesla reported a $472 million drop due to a Bitcoin mark-to-market loss in Q1.
Company Guidance
During the Tesla Q1 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk and the executive team provided several forward-looking statements and metrics regarding the company's outlook. Musk emphasized the importance of Tesla's focus on large-scale autonomous cars and humanoid robots, projecting a significant impact on Tesla's valuation. He mentioned that the company expects to begin selling fully autonomous rides in Austin by June 2025, with large-scale autonomy expected to materially affect the bottom line by the second half of 2026. Musk outlined the company's efforts to localize supply chains across North America, Europe, and China, aiming to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance logistical efficiency. Vaibhav Taneja highlighted Tesla's record gross profit in the energy storage business during Q1, amid challenges like vehicle delivery declines and brand image issues. Despite these headwinds, Tesla maintained its status as California's best-selling car and reported a record number of global test drives in Q1. The company plans to continue focusing on affordable models and anticipates starting production of new models by June 2025. Tesla's efforts to mitigate risks include increasing regional content in high-volume vehicle programs, with over 85% of North American content for such vehicles.

Tesla Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Tesla demonstrates a strong financial position with healthy profit margins, robust balance sheet, and positive cash flow. Despite a slight decline in revenue growth, the company maintains operational efficiency and financial stability. The income statement score is 85, balance sheet score is 88, and cash flow score is 80.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Tesla's income statement demonstrates strong financial performance with notable gross and net profit margins. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is approximately 17.66%, and the net profit margin is around 6.70%, which are healthy figures for the auto-manufacturing industry. However, the revenue growth rate from 2024 to 2025 showed a minor decline of 2.01%, which slightly dampens the overall score. Despite this, the company maintains solid EBIT and EBITDA margins at 6.58% and 14.58% respectively, indicating efficient operational management.
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Tesla's balance sheet is robust, characterized by a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.10 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting strong financial leverage management. The equity ratio stands at 59.65%, indicating a healthy proportion of equity financing. The return on equity (ROE) is at a solid 8.59%, showcasing the company's ability to generate profit from shareholders' equity. These metrics collectively point to a stable financial position with managed leverage and substantial equity.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Tesla's cash flow statement presents a positive outlook with a notable improvement in free cash flow from 2024 to TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), showing a growth rate of 89.21%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.63, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio stands at 1.06, suggesting room for improvement in free cash flow generation relative to profitability. Overall, the cash flow position is strong, but with potential to enhance free cash flow.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
95.72B97.69B96.77B81.46B53.82B31.54B
Gross Profit
16.91B17.45B17.66B20.85B13.61B6.63B
EBIT
6.30B7.08B8.89B13.66B6.52B1.99B
EBITDA
13.96B14.71B14.80B17.66B9.63B4.22B
Net Income Common Stockholders
6.41B7.13B15.00B12.58B5.52B721.00M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
37.00B36.56B29.09B22.18B17.71B19.38B
Total Assets
125.11B122.07B106.62B82.34B62.13B52.15B
Total Debt
7.53B13.62B9.57B5.75B8.87B13.28B
Net Debt
-8.82B-2.52B-6.83B-10.51B-8.70B-6.11B
Total Liabilities
49.69B48.39B43.01B36.44B30.55B28.47B
Stockholders Equity
74.65B72.91B62.63B44.70B30.19B22.23B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
6.78B3.58B4.36B7.55B3.48B2.70B
Operating Cash Flow
16.84B14.92B13.26B14.72B11.50B5.94B
Investing Cash Flow
-15.35B-18.79B-15.58B-11.97B-7.87B-3.13B
Financing Cash Flow
3.33B3.85B2.59B-3.53B-5.20B9.97B

Tesla Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price295.14
Price Trends
50DMA
291.92
Positive
100DMA
310.08
Negative
200DMA
305.07
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
6.46
Positive
RSI
41.72
Neutral
STOCH
15.68
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSLA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 295.14 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 335.78, above the 50-day MA of 291.92, and below the 200-day MA of 305.07, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 6.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSLA.

Tesla Risk Analysis

Tesla disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tesla reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tesla Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
LILI
81
Outperform
$29.74B27.7312.22%10.28%-29.75%
FF
77
Outperform
$40.16B8.0911.47%7.42%3.03%28.54%
TMTM
75
Outperform
$238.78B7.8213.36%3.13%-0.59%7.56%
GMGM
75
Outperform
$45.43B6.818.88%1.01%7.76%-14.17%
HMHMC
74
Outperform
$46.08B8.186.54%4.20%4.37%6.93%
71
Outperform
$949.32B162.319.16%1.03%-53.71%
62
Neutral
$6.83B11.282.95%3.88%2.70%-24.56%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSLA
Tesla
295.14
121.35
69.83%
F
Ford Motor
10.26
-1.22
-10.63%
GM
General Motors
47.47
0.40
0.85%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
29.24
-2.24
-7.12%
TM
Toyota Motor
185.14
-22.88
-11.00%
LI
Li Auto
29.52
10.06
51.70%

Tesla Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Tesla Updates Bylaws Following Texas Law Changes
Neutral
May 16, 2025

On May 15, 2025, Tesla‘s Board of Directors adopted amendments to the company’s Bylaws in response to changes in Texas law. These amendments include a jury trial waiver for internal entity claims, an ownership threshold for shareholders to initiate derivative proceedings, and clarifications to the exclusive forum provision. These changes are intended to align with Texas law and became effective immediately, potentially impacting shareholder rights and corporate governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSLA) stock is a Buy with a $380.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tesla stock, see the TSLA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.