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Toyota Motor
(NYSE:TM)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$181.00
▼(-25.89% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/10/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but weakening financial performance (notably 2026 margin and earnings compression, plus higher leverage and historically volatile free cash flow) balanced by very attractive valuation (low P/E and strong dividend yield). Technical indicators are a key drag, showing a clear downtrend with weak momentum despite oversold readings.
Positive Factors
Scale & Revenue Growth
Toyota's persistent revenue growth and global scale provide durable earnings capacity and diversification across regions and models. This scale supports R&D, capex and dealer networks, enabling continued product investment and resilience through industry cycles over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression
Material margin compression in 2026, with net margin around 7.6%, signals rising costs or pricing pressure that erodes return on sales. Persisting margin headwinds would reduce free cash flow and ROE, constraining reinvestment and strategic initiatives over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Revenue Growth
Toyota's persistent revenue growth and global scale provide durable earnings capacity and diversification across regions and models. This scale supports R&D, capex and dealer networks, enabling continued product investment and resilience through industry cycles over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Toyota Motor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Toyota Motor is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Toyota Motor is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyToyota Motor (TM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$186.48B
Dividend Yield2.57%
Average Volume (3M)560.00K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.6
Beta (1Y)0.89
Revenue Growth6.73%
EPS Growth-16.97%
CountryUS
Employees383,853
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2982.00
Shares Outstanding1,459,498,800
10 Day Avg. Volume622,342
30 Day Avg. Volume559,996
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.81
Price to Book (P/B)1.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio72.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap340.62
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.24
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.44
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.43
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$230.00Price Target Upside-5.82% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)18.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$329.44B
Toyota Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Toyota Motor Corporation is a multinational automotive manufacturer responsible for the design, production, assembly, and sale of a diverse range of passenger vehicles, minivans, commercial vehicles, and their associated components and accessories...
How the Company Makes Money
Toyota primarily makes money by selling vehicles and providing financing and related services. A large share of revenue is generated from wholesale and retail sales of Toyota and Lexus vehicles (passenger cars, SUVs, trucks, and commercial vehicle...
Toyota Motor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong operating income and sales growth, dividend increases, and significant progress in electrified vehicle sales and value chain business expansion. However, challenges such as the impact of U.S. tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations in Japan were noted. Overall, the positive aspects of the call seem to outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Operating Income and Sales Growth
Operating income for the first half of FY '26 reached JPY 2 trillion. Consolidated vehicle sales increased to 4,783,000 units, representing 105% of the same period last year. Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales totaled 5,267,000 units, or 104.7% compared to the previous fiscal year.
Negative Updates
Impact of U.S. Tariffs
U.S. tariffs had a negative impact of JPY 1.45 trillion on operating income, though the company is working on improvement efforts to mitigate this.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operating Income and Sales Growth
Operating income for the first half of FY '26 reached JPY 2 trillion. Consolidated vehicle sales increased to 4,783,000 units, representing 105% of the same period last year. Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales totaled 5,267,000 units, or 104.7% compared to the previous fiscal year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During Toyota's fiscal year 2026 Q2 financial results briefing, CFO Kenta Kon provided detailed guidance on several key metrics. The company reported an operating income of JPY 2 trillion for the first half of the year, with a full-year forecast of JPY 3.4 trillion, despite facing challenges from U.S. tariffs. Toyota achieved consolidated vehicle sales of 4.783 million units, marking a 105% increase compared to the same period last year, with a notable rise in electrified vehicles, which accounted for 46.9% of sales. Financial results showed sales revenues of JPY 24,630.7 billion, operating income of JPY 2,005.6 billion, income before taxes of JPY 2,478.1 billion, and net income of JPY 1,773.4 billion. Toyota also announced an interim dividend of JPY 45 per share and a full-year dividend forecast of JPY 95 per share. The company plans to maintain a production capacity of 3 million units in Japan, while also increasing local production in North America to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Additionally, Toyota aims to enhance its value chain, which has contributed significantly to operating income, reaching JPY 2 trillion. Looking forward, Toyota has revised its Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales forecast upward by 100,000 units to 10.5 million units, underpinned by strong demand and product competitiveness, particularly in North America.Toyota Motor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 53.74T | 48.04T | 45.10T | 37.15T | 31.38T |
| Gross Profit | 8.97T | 9.58T | 9.37T | 6.31T | 5.97T |
| EBITDA | 8.09T | 8.75T | 9.12T | 5.76T | 5.84T |
| Net Income | 4.08T | 4.77T | 4.94T | 2.45T | 2.85T |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.00T> | 93.60T | 90.11T | 74.30T | 67.69T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.71T | 15.92T | 14.11T | 9.23T | 8.62T |
| Total Debt | 43.39T | 38.79T | 36.56T | 29.38T | 26.50T |
| Total Liabilities | 64.78T | 56.72T | 54.87T | 45.04T | 40.53T |
| Stockholders Equity | 40.09T | 35.92T | 34.22T | 28.34T | 26.25T |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 592.05B | -1.56T | -842.02B | -750.76B | -107.63B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.80T | 3.70T | 4.21T | 2.96T | 3.72T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.61T | -4.19T | -5.00T | -1.60T | -577.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -569.02B | 197.24B | 2.50T | -56.18B | -2.47T |
Toyota Motor Technical Analysis
Neutral
244.22
Price Trends
182.84
Negative
202.20
Negative
205.19
Negative
Market Momentum
-4.11
Negative
47.42
Neutral
53.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TM, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 244.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 173.23, above the 50-day MA of 182.84, and above the 200-day MA of 205.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TM.
Toyota Motor Risk Analysis
Toyota Motor disclosed 16 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Toyota Motor reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Toyota Motor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $186.48B | 9.59 | 10.10% | 2.57% | 6.73% | -16.97% | |
62 Neutral | $1.48T | 326.89 | 4.79% | ― | 2.25% | -39.81% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $68.53B | 29.80 | 3.96% | 0.69% | -2.03% | -63.41% | |
55 Neutral | $53.24B | -8.67 | -14.72% | 5.64% | 3.82% | -209.77% | |
55 Neutral | $37.39B | -14.15 | -3.53% | 4.19% | 1.63% | -158.78% | |
50 Neutral | $12.17B | -45.70 | -2.49% | ― | -23.38% | -123.25% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TM
Toyota Motor
174.59
6.73
4.01%
F
Ford Motor
13.36
2.31
20.96%
GM
General Motors
76.00
24.65
48.00%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
28.02
-0.50
-1.74%
TSLA
Tesla
393.45
99.51
33.85%
LI
Li Auto
12.02
-14.72
-55.05%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.