Toyota Motor Corp Ltd Ord (TM)
NYSE:TM
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Toyota Motor
(NYSE:TM)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$202.00
▼(-17.29% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/10/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but weakening financial performance (notably 2026 margin and earnings compression, plus higher leverage and historically volatile free cash flow) balanced by very attractive valuation (low P/E and strong dividend yield). Technical indicators are a key drag, showing a clear downtrend with weak momentum despite oversold readings.
Positive Factors
Scale and global unit growth
Toyota's large scale and broad product lineup produced unit growth in FY2026 (9.595M vehicles). Sustained global volumes bolster manufacturing leverage, stable wholesale and aftermarket parts demand, and geographic diversification, supporting a durable revenue base across cycles.
Negative Factors
Margin compression and earnings decline
Material margin compression in 2026 across gross, EBIT and net margins, with net income falling despite revenue growth, signals rising cost pressure or weaker pricing power. Persistent margin erosion would reduce return on capital, constrain reinvestment, and weaken long-term profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale and global unit growth
Toyota's large scale and broad product lineup produced unit growth in FY2026 (9.595M vehicles). Sustained global volumes bolster manufacturing leverage, stable wholesale and aftermarket parts demand, and geographic diversification, supporting a durable revenue base across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Toyota Motor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Toyota Motor is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where Toyota Motor is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyToyota Motor (TM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$242.17B
Dividend Yield2.57%
Average Volume (3M)439.40K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.4
Beta (1Y)0.84
Revenue Growth6.73%
EPS Growth-16.97%
CountryUS
Employees383,853
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2982.00
Shares Outstanding1,579,498,800
10 Day Avg. Volume505,972
30 Day Avg. Volume439,403
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.81
Price to Book (P/B)1.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.79
P/FCF Ratio72.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap288.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.36
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.17
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.81
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$230.00Price Target Upside-5.82% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)20.04
Revenue Forecast (FY)$336.59B
Toyota Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Toyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories. It operates in Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers...
How the Company Makes Money
Toyota makes money primarily by selling vehicles and related automotive products, and secondarily by providing financing and other financial services tied to vehicle purchases and leases. In its Automotive business, revenue is generated from whole...
Toyota Motor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong operating income and sales growth, dividend increases, and significant progress in electrified vehicle sales and value chain business expansion. However, challenges such as the impact of U.S. tariffs and exchange rate fluctuations in Japan were noted. Overall, the positive aspects of the call seem to outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Operating Income and Sales Growth
Operating income for the first half of FY '26 reached JPY 2 trillion. Consolidated vehicle sales increased to 4,783,000 units, representing 105% of the same period last year. Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales totaled 5,267,000 units, or 104.7% compared to the previous fiscal year.
Negative Updates
Impact of U.S. Tariffs
U.S. tariffs had a negative impact of JPY 1.45 trillion on operating income, though the company is working on improvement efforts to mitigate this.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Operating Income and Sales Growth
Operating income for the first half of FY '26 reached JPY 2 trillion. Consolidated vehicle sales increased to 4,783,000 units, representing 105% of the same period last year. Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales totaled 5,267,000 units, or 104.7% compared to the previous fiscal year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During Toyota's fiscal year 2026 Q2 financial results briefing, CFO Kenta Kon provided detailed guidance on several key metrics. The company reported an operating income of JPY 2 trillion for the first half of the year, with a full-year forecast of JPY 3.4 trillion, despite facing challenges from U.S. tariffs. Toyota achieved consolidated vehicle sales of 4.783 million units, marking a 105% increase compared to the same period last year, with a notable rise in electrified vehicles, which accounted for 46.9% of sales. Financial results showed sales revenues of JPY 24,630.7 billion, operating income of JPY 2,005.6 billion, income before taxes of JPY 2,478.1 billion, and net income of JPY 1,773.4 billion. Toyota also announced an interim dividend of JPY 45 per share and a full-year dividend forecast of JPY 95 per share. The company plans to maintain a production capacity of 3 million units in Japan, while also increasing local production in North America to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Additionally, Toyota aims to enhance its value chain, which has contributed significantly to operating income, reaching JPY 2 trillion. Looking forward, Toyota has revised its Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales forecast upward by 100,000 units to 10.5 million units, underpinned by strong demand and product competitiveness, particularly in North America.Toyota Motor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 53.74T | 48.04T | 45.10T | 37.15T | 31.38T |
| Gross Profit | 8.97T | 9.58T | 9.37T | 6.31T | 5.97T |
| EBITDA | 6.53T | 8.75T | 9.12T | 5.76T | 5.84T |
| Net Income | 4.08T | 4.77T | 4.94T | 2.45T | 2.85T |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 10.00T> | 93.60T | 90.11T | 74.30T | 67.69T |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.71T | 15.92T | 14.11T | 9.23T | 8.62T |
| Total Debt | 43.39T | 38.79T | 36.56T | 29.38T | 26.50T |
| Total Liabilities | 64.78T | 56.72T | 54.87T | 45.04T | 40.53T |
| Stockholders Equity | 40.09T | 35.92T | 34.22T | 28.34T | 26.25T |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 592.05B | -1.56T | -842.02B | -750.76B | -107.63B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.80T | 3.70T | 4.21T | 2.96T | 3.72T |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.61T | -4.19T | -5.00T | -1.60T | -577.50B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -569.02B | 197.24B | 2.50T | -56.18B | -2.47T |
Toyota Motor Technical Analysis
Negative
244.22
Price Trends
202.50
Negative
216.13
Negative
207.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-5.19
Negative
37.90
Neutral
51.93
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 244.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 190.14, above the 50-day MA of 202.50, and above the 200-day MA of 207.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TM.
Toyota Motor Risk Analysis
Toyota Motor disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Toyota Motor reported the most risks in the "Ability to Sell" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Regulatory, Legal, Political and Other Risks Q1, 2023
2.
Toyota's operations are dependent on securing, retaining and developing talented, diverse employees. Q1, 2023
3.
Financial Market and Economic Risks Q1, 2023
Toyota Motor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $242.17B | 10.45 | 10.10% | 2.57% | 6.73% | -16.97% | |
62 Neutral | $1.54T | 612.14 | 4.79% | ― | 2.25% | -39.81% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $51.92B | 4.52 | -14.72% | 5.64% | 3.82% | -209.77% | |
58 Neutral | $65.91B | 6.52 | 3.96% | 0.69% | -2.03% | -63.41% | |
58 Neutral | $32.86B | -1.42 | -3.53% | 4.19% | 1.63% | -154.96% | |
52 Neutral | $16.92B | 4,652.09 | 1.55% | ― | -22.18% | -86.28% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TM
Toyota Motor
189.94
5.47
2.97%
F
Ford Motor
13.22
3.23
32.37%
GM
General Motors
76.14
27.27
55.79%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
25.87
-3.35
-11.46%
TSLA
Tesla
417.26
82.64
24.70%
LI
Li Auto
16.18
-12.94
-44.44%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.