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Toyota Motor Corp Ltd Ord (TM)
NYSE:TM

Toyota Motor (TM) AI Stock Analysis

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TM

Toyota Motor

(NYSE:TM)

75Outperform
Toyota Motor's strong financial performance and attractive valuation provide a solid foundation for investment. The company's consistent revenue growth, profitability, and stable balance sheet are strengths, while negative free cash flow highlights the need for careful monitoring of capital expenditures. Technical analysis presents mixed signals, with potential overbought conditions suggesting caution in the short term. Overall, Toyota is well-positioned within the auto manufacturing industry, balancing growth potential with financial stability.

Toyota Motor (TM) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Toyota Motor Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionToyota Motor Corporation designs, manufactures, assembles, and sells passenger vehicles, minivans and commercial vehicles, and related parts and accessories. It operates in Automotive, Financial Services, and All Other segments. The company offers hybrid cars under the Prius name, fuel cell vehicles under the MIRAI name; and conventional engine vehicles, including subcompact and compact cars under the Corolla and Raize names. It also provides mini-vehicles, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and auto parts under the Toyota name; mid-size cars; luxury cars; sports cars under the GR Yaris, Corolla Sport, Corolla Cross, and Supra names; and recreational and sport-utility vehicles under the Highlander name. In addition, the company offers pickup trucks under the Tacoma name; minivans; and trucks and buses. Further, it provides financial services, such as retail financing and leasing, wholesale financing, insurance, and credit cards; and designs, manufactures, and sells prefabricated housing. Additionally, the company operates GAZOO.com, a web portal for automobile information. It operates in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, and the Middle East. The company was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Toyota, Japan.
How the Company Makes MoneyToyota makes money through a combination of automotive sales, financial services, and other business operations. The primary revenue stream comes from the sale of vehicles, including both new and used cars, with a significant presence in markets across the globe. Toyota also generates income through its financial services division, which offers loans, leases, and insurance products to support vehicle sales. Additionally, the company benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that expand its reach and capabilities in emerging technologies such as electric vehicles and autonomous driving. Factors like a strong global brand, extensive dealership network, and commitment to innovation contribute significantly to Toyota's earnings.

Toyota Motor Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Retail Vehicle Sales
Retail Vehicle Sales
Monitors the number of vehicles sold directly to consumers, indicating market demand, brand popularity, and competitive positioning in the automotive industry.
Chart InsightsToyota's retail vehicle sales showed a strong recovery through 2023, peaking at nearly 3 million units by year-end. However, 2024 has seen a significant downturn, with sales dropping sharply in the first half of the year. This decline may reflect broader economic challenges or supply chain issues impacting production and distribution. The recent uptick in the last quarter of 2024 suggests potential stabilization, but the overall trend indicates a need for strategic adjustments to regain momentum in the competitive automotive market.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Toyota Motor Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Toyota Motor demonstrates strong financial health with consistent revenue growth and profitability. The income statement shows robust gross and net profit margins, while the balance sheet indicates a stable financial position with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio and solid equity base. However, negative free cash flow due to high capital expenditures is a concern, despite strong operational cash flows.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Toyota Motor exhibits strong financial performance with a solid Gross Profit Margin of 20.3% and a notable Net Profit Margin of 10.9% for the TTM period. Revenue growth is evident with a 13.7% increase compared to the previous annual period, showcasing resilience and growth potential in a competitive industry. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, indicating efficient operations and profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 1.10, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging debt while maintaining shareholder equity. The Return on Equity (ROE) stands at 14.2%, reflecting efficient management of equity to generate profits. The Equity Ratio of 37.9% signifies a solid equity base supporting the company's asset structure.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Operating Cash Flow is robust, yet Free Cash Flow is negative, indicating high capital expenditures which may impact liquidity. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio of 0.83 suggests effective conversion of profits into cash. However, the Free Cash Flow to Net Income Ratio is negative, pointing to challenges in generating free cash flow amidst significant investments.
Breakdown
TTMMar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021Mar 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
46.75T45.10T37.15T31.38T27.21T29.93T
Gross Profit
9.50T9.37T6.31T5.97T4.83T5.41T
EBIT
4.79T5.35T3.67T3.00T2.96T2.44T
EBITDA
8.62T8.39T5.19T4.82T4.61T4.13T
Net Income Common Stockholders
5.10T4.94T2.45T2.85T2.25T2.04T
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
13.88T14.11T9.23T8.62T9.32T5.70T
Total Assets
94.67T90.11T74.30T67.69T62.27T52.68T
Total Debt
39.58T36.56T29.38T26.50T25.66T20.55T
Net Debt
31.29T27.15T21.86T20.38T20.56T16.36T
Total Liabilities
57.82T54.87T45.04T40.53T37.98T31.94T
Stockholders Equity
35.91T34.22T28.34T26.25T23.40T20.06T
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-1.60T-842.02B-750.76B-107.63B-1.04T-4.49B
Operating Cash Flow
4.24T4.21T2.96T3.72T2.73T3.59T
Investing Cash Flow
-4.29T-5.00T-1.60T-577.50B-4.68T-3.15T
Financing Cash Flow
391.01B2.50T-56.18B-2.47T2.74T397.14B

Toyota Motor Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price192.32
Price Trends
50DMA
183.04
Positive
100DMA
184.09
Positive
200DMA
180.71
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.26
Negative
RSI
60.03
Neutral
STOCH
41.34
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 192.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 185.57, above the 50-day MA of 183.04, and above the 200-day MA of 180.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TM.

Toyota Motor Risk Analysis

Toyota Motor disclosed 11 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Toyota Motor reported the most risks in the “Ability to Sell” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Toyota Motor Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
FF
78
Outperform
$41.48B8.3611.47%7.19%3.03%28.54%
LILI
76
Outperform
$26.76B25.3812.29%15.50%-32.48%
TMTM
75
Outperform
$243.70B7.9513.36%2.59%-0.59%7.56%
HMHMC
74
Outperform
$48.98B7.088.11%3.96%4.37%6.93%
74
Outperform
$959.36B164.029.16%1.03%-53.71%
GMGM
71
Outperform
$45.67B6.848.88%1.01%7.76%-14.17%
61
Neutral
$6.68B11.753.01%3.94%2.61%-21.96%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TM
Toyota Motor
192.32
-23.32
-10.81%
F
Ford Motor
10.43
-1.17
-10.09%
GM
General Motors
49.61
4.89
10.93%
HMC
Honda Motor Company
30.93
-1.55
-4.77%
TSLA
Tesla
318.38
146.49
85.22%
LI
Li Auto
28.38
1.38
5.11%

Toyota Motor Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 1.81%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed outlook with strong achievements in electrified vehicle sales and value chain profits, but challenges remain in terms of declining operating income forecasts, U.S. tariffs, and regional production issues. While the company has made strides in several areas, the forecasted decline and external challenges weigh heavily on future prospects.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Operating Income
Operating income for the fiscal year ended March 2025 was JPY4.8 trillion, supported by price revisions and expansion of value chain profits.
Electrified Vehicle Sales Increase
The proportion of electrified vehicles reached 46.2%, a significant increase from the previous fiscal year, with HEVs increasing by 850,000 units.
Dividend Increase
The full-year dividend for the fiscal year ended March 2025 increased by JPY15 to JPY90, with a forecast increase to JPY95 for fiscal year 2026.
Expansion of Value Chain Profits
Value chain profits, including parts and finance, have been steadily expanding at a pace of JPY150 billion annually, with a full-year forecast of over JPY2 trillion.
Recovery in Production Volume
Consolidated vehicle sales are expected to increase to 9.8 million units, a 104.7% increase over the previous fiscal year.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Operating Income Forecast
The operating income forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026 is JPY3.8 trillion, down from JPY4.8 trillion in FY 2025.
Challenges from U.S. Tariffs
The impact of U.S. tariffs is estimated at JPY180 billion for April and May 2025, with ongoing uncertainty affecting future forecasts.
Production Challenges in North America
Operating income in North America decreased due to lower production volume caused by a 4-month shutdown of Toyota Motor manufacturing in Indiana.
Sales Expenses Increase in China
Operating income in China decreased mainly due to an increase in sales expenses.
Company Guidance
In the financial results meeting for the fiscal year ending March 2025, Toyota provided comprehensive guidance on their performance metrics and future projections. The company reported an operating income of JPY4.8 trillion, supported by price revisions and value chain profit expansion, despite supply constraints and production suspension in the U.S. Looking ahead, they forecast an operating income of JPY3.8 trillion for fiscal 2026, reflecting a focus on strengthening their management foundation and investing in future profit pillars. Vehicle sales projections include 9.8 million consolidated units, with Toyota and Lexus sales expected to reach 10.4 million units, driven by a recovery in production volume. Electrified vehicles are anticipated to comprise 49.8% of total sales. The full-year dividend for fiscal 2025 was JPY90, with an increase to JPY95 forecasted for fiscal 2026. Toyota's efforts to bolster their operational base, reduce costs, and adapt to changing market demands underscore their commitment to sustainable growth and transformation into a mobility company.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.