LGI Homes (LGIH)
NASDAQ:LGIH
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LGI Homes
(NASDAQ:LGIH)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$49.00
▲(12.49% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/29/26
LGIH’s score is held back primarily by weakening fundamentals—sharp TTM revenue decline, materially compressed margins, and especially negative operating/free cash flow. Technicals are moderately supportive with the stock above key short- and mid-term averages and positive MACD, but still below the 200-day average and near overbought territory. Valuation is a notable headwind due to the very high P/E, partially offset by a cautiously positive earnings update with raised margin guidance and much improved backlog despite elevated cancellations.
Positive Factors
Backlog Growth & Visibility
A materially larger backlog provides multi-month revenue visibility and helps smooth production planning, permitting the company to convert future demand into predictable closings. This backlog strengthens execution optionality and margin realization even if near-term closings remain uneven.
Negative Factors
Negative Cash Generation
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow erodes financial flexibility, increasing reliance on borrowings or revolver draws to fund construction and working capital. Over multiple quarters this raises refinancing and liquidity risk if housing demand weakens or funding costs rise.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog Growth & Visibility
A materially larger backlog provides multi-month revenue visibility and helps smooth production planning, permitting the company to convert future demand into predictable closings. This backlog strengthens execution optionality and margin realization even if near-term closings remain uneven.
Read all positive factors
LGI Homes (LGIH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.05B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)553.01K
Price to Earnings (P/E)105.9
Beta (1Y)1.08
Revenue Growth-22.57%
EPS Growth-62.41%
CountryUS
Employees1,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.24
Shares Outstanding23,133,085
10 Day Avg. Volume393,585
30 Day Avg. Volume553,012
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.22
Price to Book (P/B)0.48
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio-7.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.63
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.04
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda28.83
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$38.00Price Target Upside-12.76% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.71B
LGI Homes Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
LGI Homes, Inc. designs, constructs, and sells homes. It offers entry-level homes, such as attached and detached homes, and active adult homes under the LGI Homes brand name; and luxury series homes under the Terrata Homes brand name. The company ...
How the Company Makes Money
LGI Homes generates the vast majority of its revenue from selling newly constructed single-family homes. Its core revenue stream is home sales revenue recognized at the time homes are closed and delivered to buyers; this sale price generally refle...
LGI Homes Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a cautiously positive tone: the company delivered better-than-expected margins, a meaningful increase in backlog (highest since 2022), and solid adjusted EBITDA growth while raising full-year margin guidance. Offsetting these positives were a year-over-year revenue decline driven by fewer closings, an elevated 45.6% cancellation rate tied to financing challenges, modest GAAP net income, and a heavy completed inventory position the company is actively managing. On balance, management emphasized execution, margin durability, and confidence in long-term demand while acknowledging near-term affordability and financing headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue and Closings
Revenue of $319.7 million driven by 881 homes closed (of 916 delivered). Average selling price (ASP) for closed homes rose 2.9% year-over-year to $362,924.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Closings Decline YoY
Revenue declined 9% year-over-year, driven by an 11.5% decrease in closings compared to the prior year period.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Closings
Revenue of $319.7 million driven by 881 homes closed (of 916 delivered). Average selling price (ASP) for closed homes rose 2.9% year-over-year to $362,924.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
LGI reiterated and modestly tightened its full‑year outlook, maintaining annual closings guidance of 4,600–5,400 homes and year‑end active communities of 150–160 while keeping ASP guidance at $355,000–$365,000 and SG&A at 15%–16% of revenue; based on stronger Q1 margins and a 1,699‑unit backlog (up 63% YoY and 22% sequential), management raised full‑year gross margin to 18.5%–20.5% and adjusted gross margin to 22%–24%, expects April closings of roughly 400–450, and aims to hold total debt‑to‑capital near the midpoint of its 35%–45% target (Q1 was 44.8% total debt‑to‑capital, net 44%), with a full‑year effective tax rate around 26.5%.LGI Homes Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.35B | 1.71B | 2.20B | 2.36B | 2.30B | 3.05B |
| Gross Profit | 279.83M | 353.55M | 533.29M | 542.19M | 646.60M | 818.03M |
| EBITDA | 95.64M | 102.81M | 262.02M | 235.66M | 391.68M | 548.85M |
| Net Income | 70.72M | 72.55M | 196.07M | 199.23M | 326.57M | 429.64M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.01B | 3.93B | 3.76B | 3.41B | 3.12B | 2.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 60.86M | 61.25M | 53.20M | 48.98M | 32.00M | 50.51M |
| Total Debt | 1.71B | 1.66B | 1.52B | 1.46B | 1.41B | 810.57M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.91B | 1.83B | 1.72B | 1.55B | 1.48B | 956.02M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.10B | 2.10B | 2.04B | 1.86B | 1.64B | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -69.16M | -140.90M | -145.69M | -58.41M | -371.64M | 19.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -68.37M | -139.97M | -143.74M | -56.97M | -370.45M | 21.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 34.63M | 27.94M | 15.62M | -13.65M | -5.97M | -70.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 37.01M | 120.08M | 132.34M | 87.60M | 357.90M | 63.26M |
LGI Homes Technical Analysis
Neutral
43.56
Price Trends
45.63
Negative
47.37
Negative
50.62
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.82
Negative
57.40
Neutral
73.46
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LGIH, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 43.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 38.74, below the 50-day MA of 45.63, and below the 200-day MA of 50.62, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for LGIH.
LGI Homes Risk Analysis
LGI Homes disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LGI Homes reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
LGI Homes Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $3.99B | 11.14 | 7.29% | ― | -22.75% | -43.96% | |
62 Neutral | $684.02M | 8.76 | 6.81% | ― | -4.82% | -80.13% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $1.70B | 17.15 | 5.16% | 1.99% | -7.87% | -54.59% | |
50 Neutral | $1.05B | 105.92 | 3.51% | ― | -22.57% | -62.41% | |
46 Neutral | $662.72M | -4.50 | 0.81% | ― | -6.06% | -91.99% | |
41 Neutral | $69.42M | -5.63 | -23.25% | ― | -12.30% | -128.45% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LGIH
LGI Homes
48.96
-5.65
-10.35%
BZH
Beazer Homes
22.26
2.70
13.80%
HOV
Hovnanian Enterprises
117.23
20.43
21.11%
TPH
Tri Pointe
46.91
16.16
52.55%
CCS
Century Communities
59.09
5.57
10.40%
UHG
United Homes Group
1.18
-0.77
-39.49%
LGI Homes Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
LGI Homes Raises 2026 Margin Outlook After Strong Q1
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28, 2026, LGI Homes reported first-quarter 2026 results, delivering 916 homes, including 881 home closings that generated $319.7 million in home sales revenue. The company achieved an average sales price of about $362,924, an adjusted gro...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
LGI Homes Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditor and Pay Policies
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
At its annual meeting on April 23, 2026, LGI Homes’ shareholders elected seven directors, including CEO Eric Lipar and other incumbent board members, to one-year terms ending at the 2027 annual meeting, reflecting continued investor support ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
LGI Homes Posts 2025 Results, Issues Cautious 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 17, 2026
LGI Homes reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on February 17, 2026, posting Q4 home sales revenue of $474.0 million on 1,301 home closings with an average sales price of $364,310 and an adjusted gross margin of 22.3%. For 2025, the ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.