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LGI Homes
(NASDAQ:LGIH)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$64.00
▲(46.92% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/26/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening financial performance—sharp TTM revenue decline, materially lower margins/ROE, and especially negative operating and free cash flow. Technicals provide support (strong uptrend above key moving averages), but overbought signals temper that strength. Valuation is only moderate for a company facing cash-flow pressure, while the latest earnings call adds a constructive offset via raised margin guidance and a sharply higher backlog despite elevated cancellations and inventory risk.
Positive Factors
Backlog growth and order momentum
A 63% YoY backlog increase provides multi-month revenue visibility and supports production planning. Higher backlog reduces near-term sales volatility, enables more predictable cash conversion from planned closings, and underpins management's ability to hit raised margin targets over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative operating and free cash flow
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing or working-capital risk. For a capital-intensive homebuilder, persistent cash burn can force higher revolver usage or slower community growth, limiting the firm's ability to invest in starts or absorb market downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog growth and order momentum
A 63% YoY backlog increase provides multi-month revenue visibility and supports production planning. Higher backlog reduces near-term sales volatility, enables more predictable cash conversion from planned closings, and underpins management's ability to hit raised margin targets over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
LGI Homes (LGIH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.44B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)408.85K
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.3
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth-22.62%
EPS Growth-60.74%
CountryUS
Employees1,043
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.05
Shares Outstanding23,232,279
10 Day Avg. Volume390,727
30 Day Avg. Volume408,845
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.22
Price to Book (P/B)0.48
Price to Sales (P/S)0.58
P/FCF Ratio-7.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.99
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda28.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.00Price Target Upside-5.88% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)2.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.81B
LGI Homes Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
LGI Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of new homes in the United States. It markets and sells attached and detached entry-level homes and active adult offerings under the LGI Homes brand; and luxury homes under the Terrata ...
How the Company Makes Money
LGI Homes primarily makes money by selling newly constructed homes to individual homebuyers. Its core revenue stream is home sales revenue, recognized when a home is delivered/closed to the buyer; the amount reflects the contracted sales price of ...
LGI Homes Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a cautiously positive tone: the company delivered better-than-expected margins, a meaningful increase in backlog (highest since 2022), and solid adjusted EBITDA growth while raising full-year margin guidance. Offsetting these positives were a year-over-year revenue decline driven by fewer closings, an elevated 45.6% cancellation rate tied to financing challenges, modest GAAP net income, and a heavy completed inventory position the company is actively managing. On balance, management emphasized execution, margin durability, and confidence in long-term demand while acknowledging near-term affordability and financing headwinds.Positive Updates
Revenue and Closings
Revenue of $319.7 million driven by 881 homes closed (of 916 delivered). Average selling price (ASP) for closed homes rose 2.9% year-over-year to $362,924.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Closings Decline YoY
Revenue declined 9% year-over-year, driven by an 11.5% decrease in closings compared to the prior year period.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Closings
Revenue of $319.7 million driven by 881 homes closed (of 916 delivered). Average selling price (ASP) for closed homes rose 2.9% year-over-year to $362,924.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
LGI reiterated and modestly tightened its full‑year outlook, maintaining annual closings guidance of 4,600–5,400 homes and year‑end active communities of 150–160 while keeping ASP guidance at $355,000–$365,000 and SG&A at 15%–16% of revenue; based on stronger Q1 margins and a 1,699‑unit backlog (up 63% YoY and 22% sequential), management raised full‑year gross margin to 18.5%–20.5% and adjusted gross margin to 22%–24%, expects April closings of roughly 400–450, and aims to hold total debt‑to‑capital near the midpoint of its 35%–45% target (Q1 was 44.8% total debt‑to‑capital, net 44%), with a full‑year effective tax rate around 26.5%.LGI Homes Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
24
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.67B | 1.71B | 2.20B | 2.36B | 2.30B | 3.05B |
| Gross Profit | 339.76M | 353.55M | 533.29M | 542.19M | 646.60M | 818.03M |
| EBITDA | 101.73M | 102.81M | 262.02M | 264.16M | 419.69M | 543.93M |
| Net Income | 70.72M | 72.55M | 196.07M | 199.23M | 326.57M | 429.64M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.01B | 3.93B | 3.76B | 3.41B | 3.12B | 2.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 60.86M | 61.25M | 53.20M | 48.98M | 32.00M | 50.51M |
| Total Debt | 1.71B | 1.66B | 1.52B | 1.46B | 1.41B | 810.57M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.91B | 1.83B | 1.72B | 1.55B | 1.48B | 956.02M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.10B | 2.10B | 2.04B | 1.86B | 1.64B | 1.40B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -69.16M | -140.90M | -145.69M | -58.41M | -371.64M | 19.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -68.37M | -139.97M | -143.74M | -56.97M | -370.45M | 21.70M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 34.63M | 27.94M | 15.62M | -13.65M | -5.97M | -70.39M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 37.01M | 120.08M | 132.34M | 87.60M | 357.90M | 63.26M |
LGI Homes Technical Analysis
Positive
43.56
Price Trends
50.09
Positive
47.75
Positive
48.29
Positive
Market Momentum
4.03
Negative
61.58
Neutral
73.64
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LGIH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.98, below the 50-day MA of 50.09, and below the 200-day MA of 48.29, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.58 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LGIH.
LGI Homes Risk Analysis
LGI Homes disclosed 53 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. LGI Homes reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
LGI Homes Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $2.01B | 15.62 | 5.16% | 1.99% | -7.87% | -54.59% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $800.00M | 34.67 | 4.39% | ― | -4.73% | -87.32% | |
54 Neutral | $1.44B | 20.32 | 3.39% | ― | -22.62% | -60.74% | |
51 Neutral | $767.26M | -195.88 | -0.32% | ― | -13.36% | -104.38% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
LGIH
LGI Homes
62.03
7.60
13.96%
BZH
Beazer Homes
28.07
4.49
19.04%
HOV
Hovnanian Enterprises
134.53
21.20
18.71%
CCS
Century Communities
69.99
11.48
19.62%
LGI Homes Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
LGI Homes Raises 2026 Margin Outlook After Strong Q1
Positive
Apr 28, 2026
On April 28, 2026, LGI Homes reported first-quarter 2026 results, delivering 916 homes, including 881 home closings that generated $319.7 million in home sales revenue. The company achieved an average sales price of about $362,924, an adjusted gro...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
LGI Homes Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditor and Pay Policies
Positive
Apr 27, 2026
At its annual meeting on April 23, 2026, LGI Homes’ shareholders elected seven directors, including CEO Eric Lipar and other incumbent board members, to one-year terms ending at the 2027 annual meeting, reflecting continued investor support ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.