Tri Pointe (TPH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.18B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.14M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.93
• Revenue Growth: -3.59%
• EPS Growth: -10.82%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,750
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.68
• Shares Outstanding: 87,506,510
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 945,567
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,143,816
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.83
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.54
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.59
• 1Y Price Target: $38.25
• Price Target Upside: 2.99% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 79 Outperform
• Price Target: $40.00 ▲(7.70% Upside)

Tri Pointe's strong financial performance and attractive valuation are the most significant factors contributing to its overall score. The company's robust financial health, characterized by healthy margins and a debt-free status, positions it well for future growth. Technical indicators show positive momentum, although caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions. The earnings call highlights strategic growth initiatives and a solid financial position, despite some market challenges.

Positive Factors

Financial Services Income

Financial services income came in $3M above the model.

Home Sales Revenue

Home sales revenue of $1.22B was above the estimate on 66 (4%) more unit deliveries than modeled.

Negative Factors

Backlog Reduction

The company's backlog is down 44% YoY, adding risk to meeting volume or GM targets due to current market volatility.

Guidance Weakness

The 2025 guidance was weaker than anticipated on every key metric and shares fell 11% on the day.

Order Decline

Following two consecutive quarters of approximately 30% Order declines, 3Q Orders are expected to remain challenged with a decline of 17% YoY.

Tri Pointe Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of single-family attached and detached homes in the United States. The company operates through a portfolio of six brands comprising Maracay in Arizona; Pardee Homes in California and Nevada; Quadrant Homes in Washington; Trendmaker Homes in Texas; TRI Pointe Homes in California, Colorado, and the Carolinas; and Winchester Homes in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. As of December 31, 2021, its operations consisted of 112 active selling communities and 41,675 owned or controlled lots. The company sells its homes through own sales representatives and independent real estate brokers. It also provides financial services, such as mortgage financing, title and escrow, and property and casualty insurance agency services. The company was formerly known as TRI Pointe Group, Inc. and changed its name to Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. in January 2021. Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Tri Pointe Homes generates revenue primarily through the sale of residential homes. The company earns money by acquiring land, developing it, and constructing homes that are then sold to consumers. Key revenue streams include the sale of newly built homes, as well as additional income from the sale of lots to third-party builders. Tri Pointe also benefits from strategic partnerships with land developers, financial institutions, and trade partners, which help streamline its operations and reduce costs. Additionally, the company may realize earnings through the provision of warranty services and other ancillary services related to homeownership.

Tri Pointe Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tri Pointe exhibits strong financial health characterized by healthy margins, a robust equity base, and effective cash flow management. The company has shown resilience in maintaining profitability, despite minor fluctuations in revenue growth. The absence of debt in TTM reinforces its financial stability, making it well-positioned to leverage future growth opportunities in the residential construction industry.

Income Statement

Tri Pointe has demonstrated a healthy financial performance with strong gross profit and net profit margins. The gross profit margin for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 36.4%, and the net profit margin stands at approximately 10.8%. Revenue growth was observed from 2020 to 2023, but there was a slight dip in 2024. Despite this, the company has maintained solid profitability, as evidenced by the EBIT and EBITDA margins of 12.2% and 13.1% respectively in TTM, showcasing robust operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong financial position with a debt-free status in TTM, indicating effective debt management. The equity ratio is approximately 68.8%, showcasing a strong equity base in relation to total assets. Return on Equity (ROE) is healthy at 13.9% in TTM, although it has fluctuated slightly over the years. The company’s high stockholders' equity in proportion to its total assets indicates substantial financial stability.

Cash Flow

Tri Pointe's cash flow statements reveal a solid free cash flow generation capability with a free cash flow of $495 million in TTM. Although there was a decrease in operating cash flow from the previous year, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, reflecting the company's ability to generate cash relative to its earnings. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is approximately 1.1, indicating efficient cash generation from core operations.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.02B	4.42B	3.72B	4.35B	3.98B	3.26B
Gross Profit	939.43M	1.05B	844.55M	1.17B	992.12M	728.10M
EBITDA	504.65M	607.88M	454.86M	798.56M	658.08M	402.87M
Net Income	365.76M	458.03M	343.70M	576.06M	469.27M	282.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.80B	4.89B	4.91B	4.72B	4.34B	4.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	622.64M	970.04M	868.95M	889.66M	681.53M	621.29M
Total Debt	0.00	1.10B	1.46B	1.46B	1.41B	1.40B
Total Liabilities	1.51B	1.56B	1.90B	1.88B	1.89B	1.79B
Stockholders Equity	3.29B	3.34B	3.01B	2.83B	2.45B	2.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	393.70M	672.76M	169.88M	400.65M	390.04M	565.19M
Operating Cash Flow	422.75M	696.06M	195.26M	444.28M	419.53M	587.99M
Investing Cash Flow	-87.59M	-63.45M	-26.42M	-58.12M	-72.13M	-88.04M
Financing Cash Flow	-205.46M	-531.52M	-189.55M	-178.02M	-287.17M	-207.66M

Tri Pointe Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 37.14
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 37.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 35.02, above the 50-day MA of 33.70, and above the 200-day MA of 33.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.48 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TPH.

Tri Pointe Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MHO	80 Outperform	$4.06B	8.61	17.56%	―	7.39%	-1.37%
TPH	79 Outperform	$3.18B	9.46	11.38%	―	-3.59%	-10.82%
GRBK	77 Outperform	$3.14B	9.38	22.12%	―	13.87%	6.54%
DFH	74 Outperform	$2.67B	10.48	23.25%	―	20.18%	-1.04%
KBH	73 Outperform	$4.49B	8.73	14.07%	1.47%	3.65%	-0.61%
CCS	73 Outperform	$2.03B	8.34	10.34%	1.62%	3.76%	-17.55%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.99B	12.87	-3.58%	2.97%	1.27%	-14.28%

Tri Pointe Corporate Events

Tri Pointe Issues Correction on Share Repurchase Data

On July 24, 2025, Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. issued a correction regarding its second-quarter earnings release, which had misstated the total number of shares repurchased under its stock repurchase program. As of June 30, 2025, the company had bought back 5,458,694 shares for approximately $175 million, clarifying its financial activities and ensuring accurate reporting for stakeholders.