Tri Pointe (TPH) AI Stock Analysis

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Tri Pointe

(NYSE:TPH)

77Outperform

Tri Pointe holds a strong financial position with robust margins and no debt, contributing positively to its stock score. Despite mixed technical signals, the company's low P/E ratio suggests it is undervalued, enhancing its appeal. The recent earnings call underscored resilience amidst market challenges, but the adjustment in full-year guidance indicates caution. Overall, Tri Pointe is well-positioned for future growth, though market conditions warrant careful monitoring.

Tri Pointe (TPH) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.86B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.19M

Price to Earnings (P/E)7.0

Beta (1Y)1.02

Revenue Growth10.82%

EPS Growth19.34%

CountryUS

Employees1,750

SectorConsumer Cyclical

Sector Strength59

IndustryResidential Construction

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)4.49

Shares Outstanding90,670,080

10 Day Avg. Volume1,204,853

30 Day Avg. Volume1,194,018

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.36

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.12

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.24

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$39.60

Price Target Upside25.71% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering6

Tri Pointe Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH) is one of the largest public homebuilders in the United States, focusing on the design, construction, and sale of innovative single-family homes. The company operates through multiple regional brands and is primarily involved in residential development, catering to a wide range of consumer segments from entry-level to luxury homebuyers. Tri Pointe Homes emphasizes sustainable building practices and quality craftsmanship, while striving to create communities that enhance the living experience for its customers.

How the Company Makes MoneyTri Pointe Homes generates revenue primarily through the sale of residential properties. The company's revenue model is centered around acquiring land, developing it into residential communities, and selling completed homes to individual buyers. Key revenue streams include the sale of homes, as well as potential income from land sales or joint ventures. Tri Pointe's earnings are influenced by factors such as housing market conditions, interest rates, and consumer demand. The company may also benefit from partnerships with suppliers and subcontractors to optimize construction costs and efficiencies, enhancing its profitability.

Tri Pointe Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Tri Pointe exhibits strong financial health characterized by healthy margins, a robust equity base, and effective cash flow management. The company has shown resilience in maintaining profitability, despite minor fluctuations in revenue growth. The absence of debt in TTM reinforces its financial stability, making it well-positioned to leverage future growth opportunities in the residential construction industry.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Tri Pointe has demonstrated a healthy financial performance with strong gross profit and net profit margins. The gross profit margin for TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) is approximately 36.4%, and the net profit margin stands at approximately 10.8%. Revenue growth was observed from 2020 to 2023, but there was a slight dip in 2024. Despite this, the company has maintained solid profitability, as evidenced by the EBIT and EBITDA margins of 12.2% and 13.1% respectively in TTM, showcasing robust operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reflects a strong financial position with a debt-free status in TTM, indicating effective debt management. The equity ratio is approximately 68.8%, showcasing a strong equity base in relation to total assets. Return on Equity (ROE) is healthy at 13.9% in TTM, although it has fluctuated slightly over the years. The company’s high stockholders' equity in proportion to its total assets indicates substantial financial stability.

Cash Flow

Positive

Tri Pointe's cash flow statements reveal a solid free cash flow generation capability with a free cash flow of $495 million in TTM. Although there was a decrease in operating cash flow from the previous year, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, reflecting the company's ability to generate cash relative to its earnings. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is approximately 1.1, indicating efficient cash generation from core operations.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.42B	3.72B	4.35B	3.98B	3.26B
	Gross Profit
982.29M	844.55M	1.16B	992.12M	728.10M
	EBIT
552.58M	442.17M	746.52M	605.04M	366.51M
	EBITDA
607.88M	454.86M	807.35M	678.49M	421.36M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
458.03M	343.70M	576.06M	469.27M	282.21M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
970.04M	868.95M	889.66M	681.53M	621.29M
	Total Assets
4.89B	4.91B	4.72B	4.34B	4.02B
	Total Debt
1.10B	1.46B	1.38B	1.34B	1.34B
	Net Debt
129.62M	592.41M	488.39M	656.20M	721.71M
	Total Liabilities
1.56B	1.90B	1.88B	1.89B	1.79B
	Stockholders Equity
3.34B	3.01B	2.83B	2.45B	2.23B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
672.76M	169.88M	400.65M	390.04M	565.19M
	Operating Cash Flow
696.06M	195.26M	444.28M	419.53M	587.99M
	Investing Cash Flow
-63.45M	-26.42M	-58.12M	-72.13M	-88.04M
	Financing Cash Flow
-531.52M	-189.55M	-178.02M	-287.17M	-207.66M

Tri Pointe Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price31.50

Price Trends

50DMA

31.16

Positive

100DMA

33.98

Negative

200DMA

38.63

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.15

Negative

RSI

55.74

Neutral

STOCH

61.98

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 31.5 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 30.16, above the 50-day MA of 31.16, and below the 200-day MA of 38.63, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 61.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TPH.

Tri Pointe Risk Analysis

Tri Pointe disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tri Pointe reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tri Pointe Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TPH	77 Outperform	$2.86B	7.01	13.28%	―	10.82%	19.34%
GRBK	76 Outperform	$2.64B	7.27	24.29%	―	21.22%	24.90%
MHO	73 Outperform	$2.96B	5.84	19.02%	―	8.68%	8.39%
DFH	73 Outperform	$2.13B	7.09	27.19%	―	18.74%	13.43%
CCS	65 Neutral	$1.68B	5.69	12.36%	1.95%	10.75%	8.31%
KBH	63 Neutral	$3.94B	6.70	15.58%	1.82%	5.54%	11.12%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$6.65B	11.70	3.09%	3.98%	2.65%	-20.82%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TPH

Tri Pointe

31.50

-8.05

-20.35%

KBH

KB Home

54.93

-14.14

-20.47%

MHO

M/I Homes

110.53

-13.41

-10.82%

CCS

Century Communities

54.98

-28.67

-34.27%

GRBK

Green Brick Partners

60.21

3.81

6.76%

DFH

Dream Finders Homes

22.74

-8.57

-27.37%

Tri Pointe Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 24, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 2.01%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 24, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, robust balance sheet management, and strategic market expansions, demonstrating resilience despite a slower start to the spring selling season and economic uncertainties impacting buyer confidence. The company remains optimistic about long-term fundamentals but has adjusted its full-year guidance to reflect current market challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Financial Performance in Q1 2025

The company delivered 1,040 homes, with an average sales price of $693,000, resulting in home sales revenue of $721 million. Gross margins were 23.9%, a 90 basis point increase from the previous year. Net income was $64 million with diluted earnings per share of $0.70.

Robust Balance Sheet

TRI Pointe ended the quarter with total liquidity of $1.5 billion, including over $800 million in cash, and a homebuilding debt to capital ratio of 21.6%. The company repurchased $75 million of its stock, reducing shares outstanding by 1.9%.

Market Expansion Initiatives

New market expansions in Utah, Orlando, and the Coastal Carolinas are underway, with strong land pipelines and management teams in place, representing long-term growth opportunities.

Negative Updates

Slower Spring Selling Season

Net new home orders were 1,238 with an absorption rate of 2.8 per community per month, indicating a slower start to the spring selling season compared to expectations.

Economic Uncertainty Impacting Buyer Confidence

Elevated economic uncertainty, international trade tensions, and new tariffs have dampened buyer confidence, affecting market conditions.

Lowered Full-Year Guidance

Due to slower market conditions, the full-year guidance for home deliveries has been lowered to 5,000 to 5,500 homes with an average sales price between $665,000 and $675,000, and a gross margin range of 20.5% to 22%.

Company Guidance

During TRI Pointe Homes' first-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported strong performance, delivering 1,040 new homes at an average sales price of $693,000, generating home sales revenue of $721 million. The homebuilding gross margin was robust at 23.9%, reflecting a 90 basis point increase from the same period last year. Net income amounted to $64 million, resulting in diluted earnings per share of $0.70. The company highlighted a slower start to the spring selling season, reporting net new home orders of 1,238 and a monthly absorption rate of 2.8 per community. Despite economic uncertainties and international trade tensions, the company remains confident in its long-term strategy, supported by a balance sheet with $1.5 billion in liquidity and a homebuilding debt to capital ratio of 21.6%. For the second quarter, TRI Pointe anticipates delivering 1,100 to 1,200 homes with an average sales price between $670,000 and $690,000, while the full-year guidance was adjusted to deliver 5,000 to 5,500 homes. The company continues to focus on expanding into new markets, such as Utah, Orlando, and the Coastal Carolinas, while maintaining disciplined capital deployment and a strong emphasis on customer satisfaction.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.