Tri Pointe Homes (TPH)
NYSE:TPH
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Tri Pointe
(NYSE:TPH)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$52.00
▲(11.33% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/28/26
The score is driven primarily by stable but weakening fundamentals (notably the sharp 2025 cash flow decline and margin compression), offset by a healthy balance sheet and a reasonable P/E. The announced all-cash acquisition at a premium is a major positive near-term factor, while technicals show strong trend but overbought conditions that add pullback risk.
Positive Factors
Diversified homebuilding model
Tri Pointe’s vertically integrated homebuilding model spans land acquisition, entitlement, construction and sales across multiple price segments. That portfolio diversification and control over land-to-delivery reduces reliance on third parties and supports durable revenue streams and margin resilience across cycles.
Negative Factors
Sharply weaker cash generation
A pronounced drop in operating cash flow tightens free cash availability for land development, community openings and debt servicing. Persistently weaker cash conversion raises refinancing and liquidity risks, constrains discretionary investment, and amplifies sensitivity to timing of closings and working capital swings.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified homebuilding model
Tri Pointe’s vertically integrated homebuilding model spans land acquisition, entitlement, construction and sales across multiple price segments. That portfolio diversification and control over land-to-delivery reduces reliance on third parties and supports durable revenue streams and margin resilience across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Tri Pointe (TPH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.98B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.33M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth-16.60%
EPS Growth-29.85%
CountryUS
Employees1,750
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.70
Shares Outstanding85,135,360
10 Day Avg. Volume2,923,199
30 Day Avg. Volume3,331,664
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.25
Price to Book (P/B)0.81
Price to Sales (P/S)0.77
P/FCF Ratio20.88
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.23
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$47.00Price Target Upside0.62% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)2.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.02B
Tri Pointe Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. engages in the design, construction, and sale of single-family attached and detached homes in the United States. The company operates through a portfolio of six brands comprising Maracay in Arizona; Pardee Homes in Californi...
How the Company Makes Money
TPH primarily makes money by selling newly constructed homes to individual homebuyers. The company’s core revenue stream is homebuilding revenue recognized when a home closes (i.e., when ownership transfers to the buyer). Pricing and sales volume ...
Tri Pointe Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 23, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Tri Pointe Homes demonstrated strong financial results and strategic growth plans, but faced challenges with soft market conditions and increased incentives to drive sales. The company's focus on community growth and financial strength suggests a balanced approach to navigating current market challenges.Positive Updates
Exceeded Home Delivery Guidance
Tri Pointe Homes closed 1,217 homes, surpassing the high end of their delivery guidance, with an average sales price of $672,000, generating $817 million in home sales revenue.
Negative Updates
Soft Market Conditions
Market conditions remained soft throughout the third quarter with muted home buyer interest due to slow job growth and broader economic uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Exceeded Home Delivery Guidance
Tri Pointe Homes closed 1,217 homes, surpassing the high end of their delivery guidance, with an average sales price of $672,000, generating $817 million in home sales revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
In the third quarter of 2025, Tri Pointe Homes exceeded the high end of their delivery guidance by closing 1,217 homes, each at an average sales price of $672,000, which generated a home sales revenue of $817 million. Their adjusted homebuilding gross margin, after excluding $8 million in inventory-related charges, was 21.6%. The company reported an adjusted net income of $62 million, translating to $0.71 per diluted share. Tri Pointe engaged in share repurchase activities, spending $51 million to buy back 1.5 million shares, thereby reducing the share count by 7% year-to-date and by 47% since 2016. They concluded the quarter with total liquidity of $1.6 billion, including $792 million in cash, alongside a debt-to-capital ratio of 25.1% and a net debt to net capital ratio of 8.7%. Looking forward, the company anticipates delivering between 1,200 and 1,400 homes in the fourth quarter at an average sales price of $690,000 to $700,000, with expectations of a homebuilding gross margin between 19.5% and 20.5%. For the full year 2025, Tri Pointe projects delivering 4,800 to 5,000 homes with an average sales price of approximately $680,000, maintaining a focus on inventory management and strategic market expansion.Tri Pointe Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.47B | 4.49B | 3.72B | 4.35B | 3.98B |
| Gross Profit | 762.07M | 1.05B | 844.55M | 1.17B | 1.01B |
| EBITDA | 364.05M | 647.89M | 494.21M | 801.22M | 658.08M |
| Net Income | 240.90M | 458.03M | 343.70M | 576.06M | 469.27M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 5.03B | 4.94B | 4.91B | 4.72B | 4.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 982.81M | 970.04M | 868.95M | 889.66M | 681.53M |
| Total Debt | 1.28B | 1.10B | 1.46B | 1.46B | 1.67B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.71B | 1.61B | 1.90B | 1.88B | 1.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.32B | 3.34B | 3.01B | 2.83B | 2.45B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 128.54M | 672.76M | 169.88M | 400.65M | 386.47M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 161.46M | 696.06M | 195.26M | 444.28M | 415.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -45.82M | -63.45M | -26.42M | -58.12M | -72.13M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -102.87M | -531.52M | -189.55M | -178.02M | -283.60M |
Tri Pointe Technical Analysis
Positive
46.71
Price Trends
42.92
Positive
37.96
Positive
35.65
Positive
Market Momentum
0.86
Positive
78.29
Negative
63.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TPH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 46.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.56, above the 50-day MA of 42.92, and above the 200-day MA of 35.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 78.29 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 63.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TPH.
Tri Pointe Risk Analysis
Tri Pointe disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tri Pointe reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tri Pointe Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $2.77B | 8.76 | 17.70% | ― | 6.62% | -1.90% | |
71 Outperform | $3.98B | 11.14 | 7.29% | ― | -16.60% | -29.85% | |
71 Outperform | $3.03B | 8.49 | 12.99% | ― | 4.77% | -9.30% | |
63 Neutral | $1.63B | 12.06 | 8.37% | 1.99% | -6.28% | -31.55% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
58 Neutral | $3.02B | 29.80 | 8.64% | 1.76% | -10.01% | -27.81% | |
55 Neutral | $1.23B | 7.33 | 14.44% | ― | 15.95% | -6.86% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TPH
Tri Pointe
46.71
17.75
61.29%
KBH
KB Home
48.41
-2.69
-5.26%
MHO
M/I Homes
117.69
13.42
12.87%
CCS
Century Communities
56.11
-1.67
-2.89%
GRBK
Green Brick Partners
64.24
10.75
20.10%
DFH
Dream Finders Homes
13.42
-7.10
-34.60%
Tri Pointe Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Tri Pointe to Be Acquired by Sumitomo Forestry
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
On February 13, 2026, Tri Pointe Homes agreed to be acquired by Japan’s Sumitomo Forestry in an all-cash merger valuing the U.S. homebuilder at about $4.5 billion, or $47 per share, a roughly 29% premium to its prior close and 42% above its ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.