Green Brick Partners (GRBK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.41B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 190.14K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: 6.62%
• EPS Growth: -1.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 650
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 1.78
• Shares Outstanding: 43,565,098
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 167,622
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 190,143
• PEG Ratio: -0.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.01
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.13
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.76
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.93
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.09B

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $84.00 ▲(12.87% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality—especially a very strong, low-leverage balance sheet—plus an inexpensive P/E. This is moderated by a neutral-to-mixed technical picture and earnings-call signals of near-term housing-cycle headwinds (margin pressure, higher incentives, and weaker backlog metrics) despite ongoing operational and strategic initiatives.

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet Strength

Near-zero leverage and a de-risked balance sheet give durable financial flexibility. With $155M cash, $520M total liquidity and $365M undrawn facilities, management can fund land investment, sustain opportunistic buybacks, and weather housing-cycle downturns without relying on expensive external capital.

Large Land/Lot Position

A deep lot pipeline (roughly 48.8k lots and ~6 years supply ex-MPC) provides multi-year growth optionality and the ability to time community starts. This reduces the need for near-term land purchases, smooths supply-side constraints, and preserves margin upside as demand recovers.

Mortgage Platform Expansion

Scaling an in-house mortgage operation offers structural competitive advantage: higher captive financing capture improves conversion, customer affordability tools, and recurring pretax income. Management expects the platform to cover more pretax income than company interest costs long-term, enhancing cash generation.

Negative Factors

Gross Margin Compression

Material margin erosion reduces per-unit cash generation and constrains reinvestment ability. Sustained compression from mix shifts and promotions makes earnings more cyclical and heightens sensitivity to cost inflation, limiting durable profitability even if volumes recover.

Rising Discounts and Incentives

A sharp increase in incentives (including rate buydowns) signals structural affordability pressure. Persistent discounting can permanently raise selling costs, compress long-term margins, and necessitate continuous promotional spending to sustain sales, weakening durable margin sustainability.

Weaker Backlog and Revenue Visibility

A sharply lower backlog and falling ASPs reduce forward revenue visibility and indicate softer demand or a mix shift to quicker move-ins. Coupled with the 2025 revenue slowdown and historically volatile operating cash flow from working-cap swings, this raises execution and liquidity risk if weakness persists.

Green Brick Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green Brick Partners, Inc. operates as a homebuilding and land development company in the United States. It operates through Builder operations Central, Builder operations Southeast, and Land development segments. The company is involved in the land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, title and mortgage services, marketing, and sale of townhomes, patio homes, single family homes, and luxury homes in residential neighborhoods, and master planned communities. As of December 31,2021, the company owns or controls approximately 28,600 home sites in Dallas-Forth Worth, Atlanta metropolitan areas, and the Treasure Coast, Florida market. The company sells its homes through sales representatives and independent realtors. Green Brick Partners, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Green Brick Partners generates revenue primarily through the sale of newly constructed homes. The company earns money by engaging in homebuilding activities, which include land acquisition, development, and construction of residential properties. Key revenue streams include direct sales from homes built by the company and joint ventures with local homebuilders, which allow them to leverage existing market knowledge and resources. Additionally, Green Brick may benefit from partnerships with real estate developers and landowners, facilitating access to prime land for their projects. The company also capitalizes on favorable market conditions and demographic trends to maximize profitability in its operations.

Green Brick Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals led by a de-risked balance sheet (near-zero debt-to-equity by 2025) and solid multi-year profitability. Offsetting factors include a sharp 2025 revenue slowdown and historically volatile operating cash flow due to working-capital swings.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded strongly from 2020–2024 (roughly doubling), and profitability remains solid with healthy gross and net margins across the period. However, 2025 shows a sharp negative revenue growth rate and lower profits versus 2024, suggesting a meaningful slowdown after a strong run.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a clear strength: leverage has fallen materially, with debt-to-equity improving from roughly 0.35–0.39 (2020–2021) to near-zero in 2025. Equity and assets have grown steadily, and returns on equity remain strong, though ROE has eased from its peak as earnings cooled in 2025.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally strong, with free cash flow close to net income in most years and a very large improvement in 2025 (operating cash flow well above earnings). The key concern is volatility: 2021 posted negative operating and free cash flow, and 2024 operating cash flow was unusually weak versus profits, highlighting working-capital swings typical for homebuilders.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.11B	2.10B	2.10B	1.78B	1.76B	1.40B
Gross Profit	672.80M	640.81M	703.52M	548.18M	523.02M	362.06M
EBITDA	444.55M	409.44M	481.83M	358.75M	361.45M	230.53M
Net Income	338.67M	313.23M	381.58M	284.63M	291.90M	190.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.48B	2.53B	2.25B	1.90B	1.66B	1.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	142.43M	154.59M	141.54M	179.76M	76.59M	77.17M
Total Debt	348.47M	14.37M	344.95M	354.76M	371.42M	339.66M
Total Liabilities	602.44M	601.78M	551.83M	548.68M	543.62M	511.31M
Stockholders Equity	1.80B	1.86B	1.63B	1.30B	1.06B	874.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	158.09M	208.45M	21.55M	205.54M	88.66M	-94.41M
Operating Cash Flow	162.20M	213.24M	25.91M	213.34M	90.68M	-92.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.70M	-43.55M	27.84M	-13.35M	-6.48M	-2.03M
Financing Cash Flow	-51.70M	-138.40M	-93.51M	-93.80M	-84.48M	154.33M

Green Brick Partners Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 74.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRBK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 74.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 75.54, above the 50-day MA of 70.68, and above the 200-day MA of 67.08, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GRBK.

Green Brick Partners Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GRBK	77 Outperform	$3.41B	9.79	20.37%	―	6.62%	-1.90%
TPH	73 Outperform	$3.92B	17.07	7.25%	―	-16.60%	-29.85%
MHO	71 Outperform	$3.66B	9.55	13.20%	―	4.77%	-9.30%
CCS	63 Neutral	$2.02B	14.33	8.37%	1.99%	-6.28%	-31.55%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DFH	61 Neutral	$1.78B	8.88	14.64%	―	15.95%	-6.86%
LGIH	51 Neutral	$1.21B	16.29	3.51%	―	-20.62%	-45.74%

Green Brick Partners Corporate Events

Green Brick Partners Declares Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividend

Green Brick Partners announced that holders of record as of March 2, 2026, of its Series A Depositary Shares, each representing a 1/1,000th interest in its 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, will receive a quarterly dividend on March 13, 2026. The dividend will be $359.38 per share of Series A Preferred Stock, or $0.35938 per depositary share, covering the period from December 15, 2025, through March 14, 2026, reflecting the stated 5.75% annual rate on the $25,000 liquidation preference per preferred share and reinforcing the company’s ongoing cash returns to preferred shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRBK) stock is a Buy with a $79.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Brick Partners stock, see the GRBK Stock Forecast page.

Green Brick Partners Announces New Share Repurchase Program

On December 10, 2025, Green Brick Partners amended its Credit Agreement to reduce the SOFR and base rate spreads and extend the maturity of commitments to December 14, 2028, while maintaining total commitments at $330 million. The following day, the company announced a new $150 million share repurchase program, set to commence after the exhaustion of the previous $100 million program, with no set deadline for completion.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRBK) stock is a Hold with a $71.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Brick Partners stock, see the GRBK Stock Forecast page.