Green Brick Partners (GRBK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.64B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 203.56K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.08
• Revenue Growth: 6.62%
• EPS Growth: -1.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 650
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 1.78
• Shares Outstanding: 43,157,290
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 206,664
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 203,555
• PEG Ratio: -0.53
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.16
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.06
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.34
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.63
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.32
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.08B

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: $70.00 ▲(14.27% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality—especially a very strong, low-leverage balance sheet—plus an inexpensive P/E. This is moderated by a neutral-to-mixed technical picture and earnings-call signals of near-term housing-cycle headwinds (margin pressure, higher incentives, and weaker backlog metrics) despite ongoing operational and strategic initiatives.

Positive Factors

Very low leverage and strong liquidity

A de‑risked balance sheet with near‑zero leverage and ample undrawn facilities provides durable financial flexibility. It supports selective land investment, buybacks, and withstands housing-cycle volatility, lowering refinancing and interest-rate risk while preserving capacity to execute strategic initiatives.

Mortgage platform scaling (captive financing)

Expanding a captive mortgage platform creates a durable, higher‑margin revenue stream and improves buyer affordability tools (e.g., buydowns). Higher capture rates can raise total profitability per home, diversify earnings away from pure construction cycles, and partially offset financing costs over the medium term.

Large owned lot position and growth optionality

A deep lot bank secures future build capacity and reduces land scarcity risk, allowing management to pace starts to demand and optimize returns. Controlled land economics provide margin support, strategic optionality to expand communities, and a multi‑year pipeline that underpins sustainable volume growth.

Negative Factors

Gross margin compression

Significant margin erosion materially reduces cash flow and returns on new starts. If driven by structural demand weakness and higher incentives, compressed gross margins can persist, limiting funds for land investment and buybacks, and increasing sensitivity to input‑cost or rate shocks over the medium term.

Rising incentives and discounts

Higher and expanding incentives indicate management must subsidize sales to maintain volumes, which depresses realized ASPs and margins. If affordability pressures persist, incentive spend may become a recurring cost, eroding pricing power and complicating forecasting and returns on newly acquired lots.

Backlog decline and ASP weakness

A sharply lower backlog reduces near‑term revenue visibility and signals softer demand or a shift to quicker, lower‑priced spec sales. Lower backlog ASP and value can force more conservative starts pacing, depress forward margins, and constrain growth even as lot supply remains ample.

Green Brick Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green Brick Partners, Inc. operates as a homebuilding and land development company in the United States. It operates through Builder operations Central, Builder operations Southeast, and Land development segments. The company is involved in the land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, title and mortgage services, marketing, and sale of townhomes, patio homes, single family homes, and luxury homes in residential neighborhoods, and master planned communities. As of December 31,2021, the company owns or controls approximately 28,600 home sites in Dallas-Forth Worth, Atlanta metropolitan areas, and the Treasure Coast, Florida market. The company sells its homes through sales representatives and independent realtors. Green Brick Partners, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Green Brick Partners primarily makes money by selling newly constructed homes. Revenue is recognized when a home sale closes (i.e., when control transfers to the buyer), and the company’s profitability on these sales is driven by the difference between the home’s selling price and the total costs to deliver it (land/lot acquisition and development, construction materials and labor, overhead, financing-related costs, and selling/closing costs). A key economic driver is its land and lot strategy: the company acquires and entitles land, develops lots and communities (infrastructure and site improvements), and then builds and markets homes within those communities; value creation can occur both through land/lot development and through home construction and sales. The company may also generate revenue and earnings from land and lot sales to third parties when it sells developed (or partially developed) lots or land positions. In addition, it can earn ancillary income from homebuilding-related activities tied to the sale of homes (e.g., upgrades/options selected by buyers) when such items are included in the closing transaction. Significant factors influencing earnings include local housing demand and home price levels in its markets, construction input costs and labor availability, the pace of sales/closings, the ability to secure and develop land and lots at attractive economics, and mortgage interest-rate and credit conditions that affect affordability and buyer demand. Specific material partnerships are not available; null.

Green Brick Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals led by a de-risked balance sheet (near-zero debt-to-equity by 2025) and solid multi-year profitability. Offsetting factors include a sharp 2025 revenue slowdown and historically volatile operating cash flow due to working-capital swings.

Income Statement

Revenue expanded strongly from 2020–2024 (roughly doubling), and profitability remains solid with healthy gross and net margins across the period. However, 2025 shows a sharp negative revenue growth rate and lower profits versus 2024, suggesting a meaningful slowdown after a strong run.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is a clear strength: leverage has fallen materially, with debt-to-equity improving from roughly 0.35–0.39 (2020–2021) to near-zero in 2025. Equity and assets have grown steadily, and returns on equity remain strong, though ROE has eased from its peak as earnings cooled in 2025.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is generally strong, with free cash flow close to net income in most years and a very large improvement in 2025 (operating cash flow well above earnings). The key concern is volatility: 2021 posted negative operating and free cash flow, and 2024 operating cash flow was unusually weak versus profits, highlighting working-capital swings typical for homebuilders.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.10B	2.10B	1.78B	1.76B	1.40B
Gross Profit	640.81M	703.52M	548.18M	523.02M	362.06M
EBITDA	443.29M	481.83M	358.75M	361.45M	230.53M
Net Income	313.23M	381.58M	284.63M	291.90M	190.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.54B	2.25B	1.90B	1.66B	1.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	190.99M	141.54M	179.76M	76.59M	77.17M
Total Debt	335.41M	344.95M	354.76M	371.42M	339.66M
Total Liabilities	603.90M	551.83M	548.68M	543.62M	511.31M
Stockholders Equity	1.86B	1.63B	1.30B	1.06B	874.55M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	208.45M	21.55M	205.54M	88.66M	-94.41M
Operating Cash Flow	213.24M	25.91M	213.34M	90.68M	-92.38M
Investing Cash Flow	-43.55M	27.84M	-13.35M	-6.48M	-2.03M
Financing Cash Flow	-138.40M	-93.51M	-93.80M	-84.48M	154.33M

Green Brick Partners Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 61.26
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRBK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 61.26 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 69.12, below the 50-day MA of 71.87, and below the 200-day MA of 67.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.96 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.22 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GRBK.

Green Brick Partners Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GRBK	77 Outperform	$2.64B	8.76	17.70%	―	6.62%	-1.90%
MHO	71 Outperform	$3.10B	8.49	12.99%	―	4.77%	-9.30%
TPH	69 Neutral	$3.97B	11.14	7.29%	―	-16.60%	-29.85%
CCS	63 Neutral	$1.62B	12.06	8.37%	1.99%	-6.28%	-31.55%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DFH	61 Neutral	$1.27B	7.33	14.44%	―	15.95%	-6.86%
LGIH	48 Neutral	$792.08M	13.73	3.51%	―	-20.62%	-45.74%

Green Brick Partners Corporate Events

Green Brick Partners Declares Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividend

Green Brick Partners announced that holders of record as of March 2, 2026, of its Series A Depositary Shares, each representing a 1/1,000th interest in its 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, will receive a quarterly dividend on March 13, 2026. The dividend will be $359.38 per share of Series A Preferred Stock, or $0.35938 per depositary share, covering the period from December 15, 2025, through March 14, 2026, reflecting the stated 5.75% annual rate on the $25,000 liquidation preference per preferred share and reinforcing the company’s ongoing cash returns to preferred shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (GRBK) stock is a Buy with a $79.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Green Brick Partners stock, see the GRBK Stock Forecast page.