Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK)
NYSE:GRBK
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Green Brick Partners
(NYSE:GRBK)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$75.00
▲(14.77% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality—especially a very strong, low-leverage balance sheet—plus an inexpensive P/E. This is moderated by a neutral-to-mixed technical picture and earnings-call signals of near-term housing-cycle headwinds (margin pressure, higher incentives, and weaker backlog metrics) despite ongoing operational and strategic initiatives.
Positive Factors
Low Leverage / Strong Balance Sheet
A near-zero leverage position and ample liquidity give Green Brick durable financial flexibility to fund selective land investment, sustain buybacks, and withstand housing-cycle downturns without forced asset sales or expensive refinancing, preserving strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Margin Compression & Rising Incentives
A nearly 500bp YoY gross margin decline and sharply higher discounts/incentives materially reduce per‑home economics. If affordability and rate pressures persist, sustained discounting could compress long‑run margins, lower ROE, and constrain reinvestment capacity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Low Leverage / Strong Balance Sheet
A near-zero leverage position and ample liquidity give Green Brick durable financial flexibility to fund selective land investment, sustain buybacks, and withstand housing-cycle downturns without forced asset sales or expensive refinancing, preserving strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors
Green Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.90B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)233.43K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.8
Beta (1Y)1.04
Revenue Growth6.62%
EPS Growth-1.90%
CountryUS
Employees650
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.78
Shares Outstanding43,157,290
10 Day Avg. Volume230,862
30 Day Avg. Volume233,432
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.48
Price to Sales (P/S)1.31
P/FCF Ratio13.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.06
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.47
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.80
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.25
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)6.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.08B
Green Brick Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Green Brick Partners, Inc. operates as a homebuilding and land development company in the United States. It operates through Builder operations Central, Builder operations Southeast, and Land development segments. The company is involved in the la...
How the Company Makes Money
Green Brick Partners primarily makes money by selling newly constructed homes. Revenue is recognized when a home sale closes (i.e., when control transfers to the buyer), and the company’s profitability on these sales is driven by the difference be...
Green Brick Partners Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, highlighting future revenue visibility and demand strength for the company's homes.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, highlighting future revenue visibility and demand strength for the company's homes.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGreen Brick Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: operational and strategic strengths (record deliveries/orders, strong liquidity, buybacks, mortgage platform growth, faster cycle times, and a deep lot position) offset notable near-term profitability pressures (significant margin compression, higher incentives, lower backlog value, and declines in net income/EPS). Management emphasized flexibility, an investment-grade balance sheet, and the ability to compete on specs due to higher margins, but acknowledged the current affordability and demand headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly and Annual Deliveries
Delivered 1,038 homes in Q4, a 1.9% increase year-over-year and the highest fourth-quarter deliveries in company history; full-year deliveries were 3,943 homes, up 4.2% year-over-year and a company record for a full year.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Compression
Homebuilding gross margins declined 490 basis points year-over-year and 170 basis points sequentially to 29.4% in Q4; full-year gross margin decreased 330 basis points to 30.5%, driven primarily by higher incentives and product mix.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly and Annual Deliveries
Delivered 1,038 homes in Q4, a 1.9% increase year-over-year and the highest fourth-quarter deliveries in company history; full-year deliveries were 3,943 homes, up 4.2% year-over-year and a company record for a full year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance for 2026 emphasized that the financial services platform should generate more pretax income than the interest cost on all company debt, with Green Brick Mortgage rolling out to all DFW communities by end‑Q1 2026, launching in Houston in the spring selling season and in Atlanta mid‑year and targeting a captive capture rate of 75–85% by year‑end; the company will begin segment reporting later this year (moving selling/closing costs to contra‑revenue), continue reducing construction cycle times (down 20 days to 130 days Y/Y, Trophy under 90 days), align starts to sales pace (units under construction ~2,048; Q4 starts 884, down 14% Y/Y), and—while not giving a specific 2026 land spend—said land investment this year is expected to be higher than 2025 (2025: $267M land acquisition, $323M land development) as it selectively grows community count; management also stressed maintaining an investment‑grade balance sheet and liquidity (cash $155M, total liquidity $520M, $365M undrawn on homebuilding facilities), low leverage (net debt/total capital 8.2%, debt/total capital 14.7%; homebuilding debt/total capital 12.8%, net homebuilding debt/total capital 6.3%), and opportunistic capital returns (board authorized $150M buyback; Q4 repurchases ~$23M, FY 2025 repurchases ~$83M), all while monitoring incentives (discounts on closings 9.2% vs 5.2% a year ago; incentives on new orders 10.2%) and backlog/backlog ASP dynamics (backlog value $354M, down 28.5% Y/Y; backlog ASP $681K, down 8.2%).Green Brick Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
90
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.10B | 2.10B | 1.78B | 1.76B | 1.40B |
| Gross Profit | 640.81M | 703.52M | 548.18M | 523.02M | 362.06M |
| EBITDA | 443.29M | 481.83M | 358.75M | 361.45M | 230.53M |
| Net Income | 313.23M | 381.58M | 284.63M | 291.90M | 190.21M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.54B | 2.25B | 1.90B | 1.66B | 1.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 190.99M | 141.54M | 179.76M | 76.59M | 77.17M |
| Total Debt | 335.41M | 344.95M | 354.76M | 371.42M | 339.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 603.90M | 551.83M | 548.68M | 543.62M | 511.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.86B | 1.63B | 1.30B | 1.06B | 874.55M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 208.45M | 21.55M | 205.54M | 88.66M | -94.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 213.24M | 25.91M | 213.34M | 90.68M | -92.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -43.55M | 27.84M | -13.35M | -6.48M | -2.03M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -138.40M | -93.51M | -93.80M | -84.48M | 154.33M |
Green Brick Partners Technical Analysis
Neutral
65.35
Price Trends
70.04
Negative
68.35
Negative
68.01
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.51
Negative
51.90
Neutral
79.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRBK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 65.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 64.61, below the 50-day MA of 70.04, and below the 200-day MA of 68.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.51 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for GRBK.
Green Brick Partners Risk Analysis
Green Brick Partners disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Green Brick Partners reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Green Brick Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $2.90B | 8.76 | 17.70% | ― | 6.62% | -1.90% | |
71 Outperform | $3.20B | 8.49 | 12.99% | ― | 4.77% | -9.30% | |
71 Outperform | $3.99B | 11.14 | 7.29% | ― | -16.60% | -29.85% | |
63 Neutral | $1.73B | 12.06 | 8.37% | 1.99% | -6.28% | -31.55% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $1.31B | 7.33 | 14.44% | ― | 15.95% | -6.86% | |
48 Neutral | $941.52M | 13.73 | 3.51% | ― | -20.62% | -45.74% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GRBK
Green Brick Partners
67.28
10.46
18.41%
MHO
M/I Homes
124.12
16.95
15.82%
TPH
Tri Pointe
46.82
17.31
58.66%
LGIH
LGI Homes
39.75
-17.48
-30.54%
CCS
Century Communities
59.64
1.32
2.26%
DFH
Dream Finders Homes
13.89
-7.91
-36.28%
Green Brick Partners Corporate Events
Dividends
Green Brick Partners Declares Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividend
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
Green Brick Partners announced that holders of record as of March 2, 2026, of its Series A Depositary Shares, each representing a 1/1,000th interest in its 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, will receive a quarterly dividend on M...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.