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Green Brick Partners
(NYSE:GRBK)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$92.00
▲(32.99% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/02/26
GRBK scores well primarily due to strong financial quality—especially the exceptionally conservative balance sheet and still-healthy profitability. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, but overbought readings raise near-term risk. Valuation is attractive on P/E, while earnings call and corporate events introduce meaningful watch items around backlog/ASP pressure, rising incentives, and the financial statement restatement overhang.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Near-zero leverage and healthy TTM ROE give the company structural financial flexibility. A conservative balance sheet lowers refinancing and covenant risk, funds land acquisitions and development during downturns, and supports buybacks/dividends without forcing distressed asset sales.
Negative Factors
Backlog deterioration and ASP pressure
A materially smaller backlog and falling backlog ASPs are structural warning signs for near-term revenue and margin visibility. Backlog is the primary forward revenue indicator for homebuilders; sustained declines imply weaker demand or pricing mix shifts that can depress volumes and profitability for months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Near-zero leverage and healthy TTM ROE give the company structural financial flexibility. A conservative balance sheet lowers refinancing and covenant risk, funds land acquisitions and development during downturns, and supports buybacks/dividends without forcing distressed asset sales.
Read all positive factors
Green Brick Partners Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, highlighting future revenue visibility and demand strength for the company's homes.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, highlighting future revenue visibility and demand strength for the company's homes.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGreen Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)253.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth-6.58%
EPS Growth-18.09%
CountryUS
Employees650
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.82
Shares Outstanding43,144,550
10 Day Avg. Volume254,637
30 Day Avg. Volume253,612
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.48
Price to Sales (P/S)1.35
P/FCF Ratio13.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.59
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.15
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.56
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)6.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.92B
Green Brick Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Green Brick Partners, Inc. is an American enterprise primarily engaged in the construction of residential properties and the development of land. The company's operations are segmented into its Central and Southeast building divisions, alongside a...
How the Company Makes Money
Green Brick Partners makes money primarily by building and selling new homes to homebuyers. Revenue is recognized largely from home closings (home sale proceeds), with profitability driven by the spread between the selling price of homes and the c...
Green Brick Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The quarter shows a resilient operating performance supported by an unusually strong balance sheet, industry‑leading gross margins (even after contraction), rapid mortgage segment growth, accelerated starts and improved construction efficiency. Those strengths are tempered by notable near‑term demand and pricing pressure—declines in revenue, backlog (‑35% YoY), ASPs, increased incentives and a required restatement for prior years. On balance, the company appears well positioned to manage volatility and pursue growth, but investors should monitor incentive levels, backlog trends, and rate/macro risks.Positive Updates
Strong profitability and industry-leading gross margins
Reported net income of $61.0M (EPS $1.39) on total revenues of $465M; homebuilding gross margin remained high at 28.9% (company calls it industry-leading) and the business generated $56M of operating cash flow in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Revenue, net income and EPS declines year‑over‑year
Home closings revenue was $448M on 908 deliveries, down 7.1% YoY; net income attributable decreased 18.8% YoY to $61M and diluted EPS decreased 16.8% YoY to $1.39.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong profitability and industry-leading gross margins
Reported net income of $61.0M (EPS $1.39) on total revenues of $465M; homebuilding gross margin remained high at 28.9% (company calls it industry-leading) and the business generated $56M of operating cash flow in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management guided that for 2026 they plan roughly $400 million of land and lot acquisitions and about $420 million of land development outflows (excluding reimbursements), expect community count to increase in H2, aim to keep completed spec supply near ~1.5 months, and target a Green Brick Mortgage capture rate of 70–80% by year‑end as the mortgage rolls out to Atlanta; they also reaffirmed a strong liquidity and capital posture with $145 million cash, $475 million total liquidity, no borrowings on a $330 million unsecured revolver, recent Q1 repurchases of 114,000 shares for ~$7 million and $160 million remaining authorization. Operational and financial benchmarks reported on the call include Q1 deliveries of 908 homes, 1,037 net new orders, 979 starts (+13% YoY), 2,119 units under construction, 419 completed specs (4.1 per community), a backlog of 649 units / $381 million backlog revenue (‑35% YoY) with backlog ASP $587k (‑13%), home closings revenue of $448 million and ASP $493k (‑6.9% YoY), homebuilding gross margin 28.9% (‑320 bps YoY), pretax margins near ~17%, incentives/discounts at ~10.1% of closings (9.9% on net new orders), SG&A 11.7% of residential unit revenue, cancellation rate 7.7%, construction cycle time <130 days (down 25 days) and Trophy cycle <90 days.Green Brick Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.01B | 2.04B | 2.10B | 1.78B | 1.76B | 1.40B |
| Gross Profit | 618.82M | 635.70M | 703.52M | 548.18M | 523.02M | 362.06M |
| EBITDA | 421.08M | 443.29M | 516.76M | 394.86M | 398.83M | 230.53M |
| Net Income | 299.11M | 313.23M | 381.58M | 284.63M | 291.90M | 190.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.53B | 2.54B | 2.25B | 1.90B | 1.66B | 1.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 177.03M | 190.99M | 141.54M | 179.76M | 76.59M | 77.17M |
| Total Debt | 282.37M | 335.41M | 344.95M | 354.76M | 371.42M | 339.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 542.50M | 603.90M | 551.83M | 548.68M | 543.62M | 511.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.92B | 1.86B | 1.63B | 1.30B | 1.06B | 874.55M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 195.45M | 208.45M | 21.55M | 205.54M | 88.66M | -94.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 200.76M | 213.24M | 25.91M | 213.34M | 90.68M | -92.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -36.28M | -43.55M | 27.84M | -13.35M | -6.48M | -2.03M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -122.31M | -138.40M | -93.51M | -93.80M | -84.48M | 154.33M |
Green Brick Partners Technical Analysis
Positive
69.18
Price Trends
69.93
Positive
69.69
Positive
68.69
Positive
Market Momentum
3.12
Negative
67.17
Neutral
64.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 69.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.52, below the 50-day MA of 69.93, and above the 200-day MA of 68.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRBK.
Green Brick Partners Risk Analysis
Green Brick Partners disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Green Brick Partners reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Green Brick Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $3.42B | 11.62 | 16.38% | ― | -6.58% | -18.09% | |
70 Outperform | $4.01B | 11.55 | 11.42% | ― | -1.83% | -30.18% | |
63 Neutral | $2.01B | 15.62 | 5.16% | 1.99% | -7.87% | -54.59% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | $1.44B | 20.32 | 3.39% | ― | -22.62% | -60.74% | |
53 Neutral | $1.54B | 8.87 | 11.44% | ― | -8.51% | -49.37% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GRBK
Green Brick Partners
79.25
15.84
24.98%
MHO
M/I Homes
156.84
44.93
40.15%
LGIH
LGI Homes
62.03
9.87
18.92%
CCS
Century Communities
69.99
12.85
22.50%
DFH
Dream Finders Homes
16.79
-9.23
-35.47%
Green Brick Partners Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Green Brick Shareholders Back Board, Pay and Auditor
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On July 1, 2026, Green Brick Partners, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders voted on board composition, executive compensation and auditor selection, signaling continuity in the company’s governance and financial ...
Executive/Board Changes
Green Brick Partners Appoints New Chief Accounting Officer
Positive
Jun 11, 2026
On June 8, 2026, Green Brick Partners, Inc. appointed Eric Park as Chief Accounting Officer and principal accounting officer, elevating him from his role as Vice President, Corporate Controller, which he has held since February 2024. Park, a 37-ye...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Green Brick Partners Announces Multi-Year Financial Statement Restatement
Negative
Apr 29, 2026
Green Brick Partners said on April 29, 2026 that it will restate its consolidated statements of income for full years 2023, 2024 and 2025, as well as certain 2025 quarters, after determining that residential unit revenue had been incorrectly repor...
Dividends
Green Brick Partners Declares Quarterly Series A Preferred Dividend
Neutral
Apr 29, 2026
Green Brick Partners announced that on June 15, 2026 it will pay a quarterly dividend to holders of record as of June 1, 2026 of its Series A depositary shares, which each represent a 1/1,000th interest in a share of 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perp...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.