Green Brick Partners (GRBK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.77B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 242.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.4
• Beta (1Y): 1.03
• Revenue Growth: 6.62%
• EPS Growth: -1.90%
• Country: US
• Employees: 650
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 1.77
• Shares Outstanding: 43,565,098
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 263,876
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 242,408
• PEG Ratio: 0.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.20
• P/FCF Ratio: 116.69
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.23
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.91
• 1Y Price Target: $71.00
• Price Target Upside: 12.84% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.79
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $2.01B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $73.00 ▲(16.02% Upside)

Green Brick Partners' overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and attractive valuation, tempered by technical indicators suggesting neutral market sentiment. The earnings call and corporate events highlight strategic growth and shareholder value initiatives, but financial pressures from declining revenue and increased incentives remain concerns.

Positive Factors

Strong Financial Position

A strong cash position and liquidity provide Green Brick Partners with the flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns, supporting long-term stability.

Expansion into New Markets

Entering new markets like Houston can drive revenue growth and enhance market presence, positioning Green Brick Partners for sustained competitive advantage.

Operational Efficiency Improvements

Improved operational efficiency reduces costs and enhances profitability, enabling Green Brick Partners to maintain competitive pricing and margins.

Negative Factors

Decline in Home Closings Revenue

A decline in home closings revenue indicates challenges in sales execution or market demand, potentially impacting future revenue growth and profitability.

Increased Discounts and Incentives

Rising discounts and incentives may pressure margins and indicate competitive pressures or weakening demand, affecting long-term profitability.

Decrease in Backlog Value

A declining backlog value suggests potential future revenue challenges, as it reflects reduced future sales commitments, impacting growth prospects.

Green Brick Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Green Brick Partners, Inc. operates as a homebuilding and land development company in the United States. It operates through Builder operations Central, Builder operations Southeast, and Land development segments. The company is involved in the land acquisition and development, entitlements, design, construction, title and mortgage services, marketing, and sale of townhomes, patio homes, single family homes, and luxury homes in residential neighborhoods, and master planned communities. As of December 31,2021, the company owns or controls approximately 28,600 home sites in Dallas-Forth Worth, Atlanta metropolitan areas, and the Treasure Coast, Florida market. The company sells its homes through sales representatives and independent realtors. Green Brick Partners, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Green Brick Partners generates revenue primarily through the sale of newly constructed homes. The company earns money by engaging in homebuilding activities, which include land acquisition, development, and construction of residential properties. Key revenue streams include direct sales from homes built by the company and joint ventures with local homebuilders, which allow them to leverage existing market knowledge and resources. Additionally, Green Brick may benefit from partnerships with real estate developers and landowners, facilitating access to prime land for their projects. The company also capitalizes on favorable market conditions and demographic trends to maximize profitability in its operations.

Green Brick Partners Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Green Brick Partners demonstrates strong profitability and a stable financial position, with effective cost management and low leverage. However, the negative revenue growth and declining free cash flow growth in the TTM highlight potential challenges in sustaining growth and liquidity.

Income Statement

Green Brick Partners shows strong profitability with a consistent gross profit margin around 32% and a net profit margin of 16.4% in the TTM. However, the revenue growth rate has turned negative at -1.15% in the TTM, indicating potential challenges in maintaining top-line growth. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain healthy, reflecting efficient cost management.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17 in the TTM, showcasing prudent financial leverage. The return on equity is strong at 21.3%, indicating effective use of shareholders' equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is robust, reflecting financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth at -2.86% in the TTM, which could impact future liquidity. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is reasonable at 0.74, suggesting adequate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, indicating efficient cash conversion.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.11B	2.10B	1.78B	1.76B	1.40B	976.02M
Gross Profit	672.80M	703.52M	548.18M	523.02M	362.06M	234.60M
EBITDA	444.55M	481.83M	358.75M	361.45M	230.53M	126.14M
Net Income	338.67M	381.58M	284.63M	291.90M	190.21M	113.69M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.48B	2.25B	1.90B	1.66B	1.42B	988.85M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	142.43M	141.54M	179.76M	76.59M	77.17M	19.48M
Total Debt	348.47M	344.95M	354.76M	371.42M	339.66M	222.46M
Total Liabilities	602.44M	551.83M	548.68M	543.62M	511.31M	325.89M
Stockholders Equity	1.80B	1.63B	1.30B	1.06B	874.55M	640.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	158.09M	21.55M	205.54M	88.66M	-94.41M	32.23M
Operating Cash Flow	162.20M	25.91M	213.34M	90.68M	-92.38M	35.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-39.70M	27.84M	-13.35M	-6.48M	-2.03M	-13.33M
Financing Cash Flow	-51.70M	-93.51M	-93.80M	-84.48M	154.33M	-25.85M

Green Brick Partners Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 62.92
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRBK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 62.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.99, below the 50-day MA of 65.38, and below the 200-day MA of 64.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GRBK.

Green Brick Partners Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MHO	75 Outperform	$3.37B	7.56	15.76%	―	4.77%	-9.30%
GRBK	73 Outperform	$2.77B	8.36	20.37%	―	6.62%	-1.90%
TPH	73 Outperform	$2.75B	9.45	9.47%	―	-16.60%	-29.85%
CCS	69 Neutral	$1.73B	8.62	8.37%	1.99%	-6.28%	-31.55%
LGIH	65 Neutral	$991.48M	9.48	5.21%	―	-20.62%	-45.74%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DFH	60 Neutral	$1.66B	6.51	20.66%	―	15.95%	-6.86%

Green Brick Partners Corporate Events

Green Brick Partners Announces New Share Repurchase Program

On December 10, 2025, Green Brick Partners amended its Credit Agreement to reduce the SOFR and base rate spreads and extend the maturity of commitments to December 14, 2028, while maintaining total commitments at $330 million. The following day, the company announced a new $150 million share repurchase program, set to commence after the exhaustion of the previous $100 million program, with no set deadline for completion.

Green Brick Partners Announces Upcoming Dividend Payment

Green Brick Partners announced that on December 15, 2025, holders of its Series A Depositary Shares will receive a quarterly dividend of $359.38 per share of Series A Preferred Stock, covering the period from September 15, 2025, to December 15, 2025. This dividend reflects an annual rate of 5.75% on the $25,000 liquidation preference per share, impacting shareholders with a consistent return on their investment.