Green Brick Partners Inc (GRBK)
NYSE:GRBK
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Green Brick Partners
(NYSE:GRBK)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$72.00
▲(4.08% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance—especially the exceptionally conservative balance sheet and solid profitability—supported by a reasonable P/E valuation. These positives are partially offset by bearish technical signals (price below key moving averages, negative MACD) and earnings-call risks centered on backlog/ASP pressure, higher incentives, and margin contraction, despite strong liquidity and continued buybacks.
Positive Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage and substantial available liquidity give management durable financial flexibility. Near-zero borrowings on a $330M revolver and ample cash support land buys, development spend and buybacks while reducing refinancing and covenant risk across housing cycles.
Negative Factors
Backlog deterioration and ASP pressure
A sharply smaller backlog and lower backlog ASPs reduce near-term revenue visibility and indicate weaker demand or pricing pressure. This structural decline suggests fewer contracted future closings and greater sensitivity of forward revenue to mix shifts and incentives over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative balance sheet
Very low leverage and substantial available liquidity give management durable financial flexibility. Near-zero borrowings on a $330M revolver and ample cash support land buys, development spend and buybacks while reducing refinancing and covenant risk across housing cycles.
Read all positive factors
Green Brick Partners Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Backlog
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, highlighting future revenue visibility and demand strength for the company's homes.
Represents the value of unfulfilled orders, highlighting future revenue visibility and demand strength for the company's homes.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGreen Brick Partners (GRBK) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.86B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)208.19K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)0.97
Revenue Growth-6.58%
EPS Growth-18.09%
CountryUS
Employees650
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.82
Shares Outstanding43,146,282
10 Day Avg. Volume271,696
30 Day Avg. Volume208,194
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.53
Price to Book (P/B)1.48
Price to Sales (P/S)1.35
P/FCF Ratio13.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.48
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.48
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)5.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.96B
Green Brick Partners Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Green Brick Partners, Inc. operates as a homebuilding and land development company in the United States. It operates through Builder operations Central, Builder operations Southeast, and Land development segments. The company is involved in the la...
How the Company Makes Money
Green Brick Partners primarily makes money by selling newly constructed homes. Revenue is recognized when a home sale closes (i.e., when control transfers to the buyer), and the company’s profitability on these sales is driven by the difference be...
Green Brick Partners Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The quarter shows a resilient operating performance supported by an unusually strong balance sheet, industry‑leading gross margins (even after contraction), rapid mortgage segment growth, accelerated starts and improved construction efficiency. Those strengths are tempered by notable near‑term demand and pricing pressure—declines in revenue, backlog (‑35% YoY), ASPs, increased incentives and a required restatement for prior years. On balance, the company appears well positioned to manage volatility and pursue growth, but investors should monitor incentive levels, backlog trends, and rate/macro risks.Positive Updates
Strong profitability and industry-leading gross margins
Reported net income of $61.0M (EPS $1.39) on total revenues of $465M; homebuilding gross margin remained high at 28.9% (company calls it industry-leading) and the business generated $56M of operating cash flow in the quarter.
Negative Updates
Revenue, net income and EPS declines year‑over‑year
Home closings revenue was $448M on 908 deliveries, down 7.1% YoY; net income attributable decreased 18.8% YoY to $61M and diluted EPS decreased 16.8% YoY to $1.39.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong profitability and industry-leading gross margins
Reported net income of $61.0M (EPS $1.39) on total revenues of $465M; homebuilding gross margin remained high at 28.9% (company calls it industry-leading) and the business generated $56M of operating cash flow in the quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management guided that for 2026 they plan roughly $400 million of land and lot acquisitions and about $420 million of land development outflows (excluding reimbursements), expect community count to increase in H2, aim to keep completed spec supply near ~1.5 months, and target a Green Brick Mortgage capture rate of 70–80% by year‑end as the mortgage rolls out to Atlanta; they also reaffirmed a strong liquidity and capital posture with $145 million cash, $475 million total liquidity, no borrowings on a $330 million unsecured revolver, recent Q1 repurchases of 114,000 shares for ~$7 million and $160 million remaining authorization. Operational and financial benchmarks reported on the call include Q1 deliveries of 908 homes, 1,037 net new orders, 979 starts (+13% YoY), 2,119 units under construction, 419 completed specs (4.1 per community), a backlog of 649 units / $381 million backlog revenue (‑35% YoY) with backlog ASP $587k (‑13%), home closings revenue of $448 million and ASP $493k (‑6.9% YoY), homebuilding gross margin 28.9% (‑320 bps YoY), pretax margins near ~17%, incentives/discounts at ~10.1% of closings (9.9% on net new orders), SG&A 11.7% of residential unit revenue, cancellation rate 7.7%, construction cycle time <130 days (down 25 days) and Trophy cycle <90 days.Green Brick Partners Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.01B | 2.04B | 2.10B | 1.78B | 1.76B | 1.40B |
| Gross Profit | 618.82M | 635.70M | 703.52M | 548.18M | 523.02M | 362.06M |
| EBITDA | 396.78M | 414.55M | 481.83M | 358.75M | 361.45M | 230.53M |
| Net Income | 299.11M | 313.23M | 381.58M | 284.63M | 291.90M | 190.21M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.53B | 2.54B | 2.25B | 1.90B | 1.66B | 1.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 177.03M | 190.99M | 141.54M | 179.76M | 76.59M | 77.17M |
| Total Debt | 282.37M | 335.41M | 344.95M | 354.76M | 371.42M | 339.66M |
| Total Liabilities | 542.50M | 603.90M | 551.83M | 548.68M | 543.62M | 511.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.92B | 1.86B | 1.63B | 1.30B | 1.06B | 874.55M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 195.45M | 208.45M | 21.55M | 205.54M | 88.66M | -94.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 200.76M | 213.24M | 25.91M | 213.34M | 90.68M | -92.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -36.28M | -43.55M | 27.84M | -13.35M | -6.48M | -2.03M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -122.31M | -138.40M | -93.51M | -93.80M | -84.48M | 154.33M |
Green Brick Partners Technical Analysis
Positive
69.18
Price Trends
65.98
Positive
68.91
Negative
68.32
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.67
Negative
51.38
Neutral
89.44
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRBK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 69.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.78, above the 50-day MA of 65.98, and above the 200-day MA of 68.32, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.44 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRBK.
Green Brick Partners Risk Analysis
Green Brick Partners disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Green Brick Partners reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Green Brick Partners Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $2.86B | 11.48 | 16.38% | ― | -6.58% | -18.09% | |
70 Outperform | $3.32B | 11.74 | 11.42% | ― | -1.83% | -30.18% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
57 Neutral | $1.49B | 17.15 | 5.16% | 1.99% | -7.87% | -54.59% | |
50 Neutral | $1.07B | 105.92 | 3.39% | ― | -22.62% | -60.74% | |
50 Neutral | $1.34B | 24.16 | 11.44% | ― | -8.51% | -49.37% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
GRBK
Green Brick Partners
66.33
7.24
12.25%
MHO
M/I Homes
129.82
23.47
22.07%
LGIH
LGI Homes
46.11
-5.39
-10.47%
CCS
Century Communities
51.95
-0.08
-0.15%
DFH
Dream Finders Homes
14.59
-7.00
-32.42%
Green Brick Partners Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Green Brick Partners Announces Multi-Year Financial Statement Restatement
Negative
Apr 29, 2026
Green Brick Partners said on April 29, 2026 that it will restate its consolidated statements of income for full years 2023, 2024 and 2025, as well as certain 2025 quarters, after determining that residential unit revenue had been incorrectly repor...
Dividends
Green Brick Partners Declares Quarterly Series A Preferred Dividend
Neutral
Apr 29, 2026
Green Brick Partners announced that on June 15, 2026 it will pay a quarterly dividend to holders of record as of June 1, 2026 of its Series A depositary shares, which each represent a 1/1,000th interest in a share of 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perp...
Dividends
Green Brick Partners Declares Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividend
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
Green Brick Partners announced that holders of record as of March 2, 2026, of its Series A Depositary Shares, each representing a 1/1,000th interest in its 5.75% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, will receive a quarterly dividend on M...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.