Century Communities (CCS)
NYSE:CCS
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Century Communities
(NYSE:CCS)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$59.00
▲(5.15% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:01/30/26
CCS scores in the low-to-mid 60s primarily due to a clear financial downshift in 2025 (lower revenue, margins, and ROE) despite improving leverage and positive but variable cash flow. The latest earnings call was constructive on operations, liquidity, and 2026 delivery outlook, but margin pressure from incentives and near-term demand uncertainty temper confidence. Valuation is supportive (P/E ~13 with a ~1.8% yield), while technicals are mixed with neutral momentum.
Positive Factors
Land Inventory / Growth Optionality
A ~61,000‑lot position provides durable optionality, enabling ~10% annual delivery growth without heavy new land buys. This reduces near‑term capital intensity, limits land‑price exposure, and supports scalable volume growth if demand normalizes over the next 2–3 years.
Negative Factors
Elevated Incentives Pressuring Margins
Persistently high incentives compress ASP and gross margins; management expects only modest improvement (up to 50bps) absent stronger demand. Elevated incentive reliance erodes structural profitability and could require sustained pricing/discounting into future selling seasons.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Land Inventory / Growth Optionality
A ~61,000‑lot position provides durable optionality, enabling ~10% annual delivery growth without heavy new land buys. This reduces near‑term capital intensity, limits land‑price exposure, and supports scalable volume growth if demand normalizes over the next 2–3 years.
Read all positive factors
Century Communities (CCS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.63B
Dividend Yield1.99%
Average Volume (3M)239.37K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth-6.28%
EPS Growth-31.55%
CountryUS
Employees1,873
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryResidential Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.59
Shares Outstanding29,050,514
10 Day Avg. Volume240,832
30 Day Avg. Volume239,370
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.23
Price to Book (P/B)0.69
Price to Sales (P/S)0.43
P/FCF Ratio14.32
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.82
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$72.00Price Target Upside28.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)5.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$4.04B
Century Communities Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Century Communities, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, construction, marketing, and sale of single-family attached and detached homes. It is also involved in the entitlement and development of the underlying...
How the Company Makes Money
Century Communities primarily makes money by selling newly constructed homes. Revenue is recognized at the time of closing, when the home is delivered to the buyer and title transfers. Key revenue streams include: (1) Home sales revenue: the large...
Century Communities Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jan 28, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced notable operational and financial progress against near-term market pressures. Highlights include record Q4 orders, meaningful operational efficiencies (shorter cycle times, lower construction costs, reduced spec inventory), strong cash generation ($153M operating cash) and a robust land position (61,000 lots) that provide optionality for ~10% annual delivery growth in 2026–2027. The company also strengthened its balance sheet, repurchased shares opportunistically, and achieved record mortgage capture rates. Lowlights center on elevated incentives (which compressed margins and reduced ASP), a Q4 inventory impairment ($10.9M), cautious early-2026 sales trends, and very low Q4 starts (29), leaving outcomes dependent on spring selling season and potential interest rate relief. On balance, the positive operational and balance-sheet developments outweigh the near-term margin and demand headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Q4 Orders and Strong Sales Pace
Q4 net new contracts of 2,702 homes (company record), up 10% year-over-year and up 13% sequentially; absorption averaged 2.9 homes per community in Q4, +12% YoY and +16% sequential.
Negative Updates
Increased Incentives Weighing on Margins
Incentives on closed homes averaged roughly 1,300 basis points in Q4 (increased ~200 basis points QoQ) and materially pressured margins and ASP; management expects only up to a 50 basis point improvement from Q4 incentive levels in 2026 absent better market conditions.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q4 Orders and Strong Sales Pace
Q4 net new contracts of 2,702 homes (company record), up 10% year-over-year and up 13% sequentially; absorption averaged 2.9 homes per community in Q4, +12% YoY and +16% sequential.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Century guided to full-year 2026 new-home deliveries of about 10,011 homes and home sales revenues of $3.6–$4.1 billion, with average open communities expected to rise in the mid-single-digit percent range and per-community absorption similar to 2025 (management also noted the ability to grow deliveries above the high end if absorption and market conditions allow); they see Q1 as the low point with deliveries of roughly 2,100–2,300 homes. For 2026 they expect SG&A of about 13% of home sales revenue (14.5% in Q1), incentives on closed homes to improve by up to 50 basis points from Q4 2025 levels (Q4 incentives averaged ~1,300 bps), adjusted homebuilding gross margin was 18.3% in Q4 (GAAP 15.4% including ~110 bps of impairment/PPA drag), mortgage capture was a record 84% (Q4 and FY2025), and the company expects a 2026 tax rate of 25–26%. They also reiterated financial flexibility and liquidity (ended Q4 with $2.6B equity, $1.1B liquidity, net homebuilding debt/net capital 25.9%), land capacity to support ~10% annual delivery growth in 2026–2027 based on existing lots, planned flat land spend (~$1.2B) in 2026, and finished lot costs expected only 2–3% higher versus Q4 2025.Century Communities Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
69
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.12B | 4.40B | 3.69B | 4.51B | 4.22B |
| Gross Profit | 882.14M | 962.76M | 802.97M | 1.14B | 1.05B |
| EBITDA | 219.24M | 470.56M | 371.43M | 716.08M | 669.63M |
| Net Income | 147.60M | 333.82M | 259.22M | 525.13M | 498.50M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.49B | 4.53B | 4.17B | 3.79B | 3.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 158.01M | 150.00M | 328.00M | 353.29M | 368.61M |
| Total Debt | 1.44B | 1.48B | 1.30B | 1.23B | 1.35B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.89B | 1.91B | 1.78B | 1.64B | 1.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.59B | 2.62B | 2.39B | 2.15B | 1.76B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 124.31M | 86.72M | -90.05M | 264.65M | -210.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 153.08M | 125.69M | 41.63M | 315.35M | -201.15M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 44.91M | -232.69M | -131.98M | -54.26M | -6.48M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -233.76M | 40.31M | 23.86M | -274.83M | 131.79M |
Century Communities Technical Analysis
Negative
56.11
Price Trends
63.57
Negative
62.64
Negative
61.87
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.89
Negative
41.85
Neutral
69.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CCS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 56.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.47, below the 50-day MA of 63.57, and below the 200-day MA of 61.87, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.89 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 69.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for CCS.
Century Communities Risk Analysis
Century Communities disclosed 83 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Century Communities reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Century Communities Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $3.03B | 8.49 | 12.99% | ― | 4.77% | -9.30% | |
71 Outperform | $3.98B | 11.14 | 7.29% | ― | -16.60% | -29.85% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $1.63B | 12.06 | 8.37% | 1.99% | -6.28% | -31.55% | |
62 Neutral | $634.08M | 8.76 | 6.81% | ― | -0.84% | -76.30% | |
55 Neutral | $1.23B | 7.33 | 14.44% | ― | 15.95% | -6.86% | |
48 Neutral | $844.82M | 13.73 | 3.51% | ― | -20.62% | -45.74% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
CCS
Century Communities
56.11
-1.67
-2.89%
HOV
Hovnanian Enterprises
106.29
17.95
20.32%
MHO
M/I Homes
117.69
13.42
12.87%
TPH
Tri Pointe
46.71
17.75
61.29%
LGIH
LGI Homes
36.52
-20.19
-35.60%
DFH
Dream Finders Homes
13.42
-7.10
-34.60%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.