Dream Finders Homes (DFH) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.78B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 390.74K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: 15.95%
• EPS Growth: -6.86%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,686
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Residential Construction
• EPS (TTM): 0.58
• Shares Outstanding: 35,028,564
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 384,834
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 390,744
• PEG Ratio: -0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.01
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.37
• P/FCF Ratio: -12.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.49
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.83
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 6.71
• 1Y Price Target: $22.00
• Price Target Upside: 14.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $21.00 ▲(9.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/24/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/24/26

The score is driven primarily by weakened financial performance—especially two consecutive periods of negative operating/free cash flow and notable margin compression—partly offset by a much stronger balance sheet and an attractive low P/E valuation. Technical indicators are broadly neutral, with modest short-term support but a still-weak longer-term trend.

Positive Factors

Improved balance sheet / lower leverage

Material deleveraging (debt-to-equity ~0.41) and equity of ~$1.57B reduce refinancing and liquidity risk. A stronger capital structure gives durable flexibility to fund land positions, endure cyclical downturns, and invest selectively without immediate external capital.

Operational scale and execution

Record annual closings and net sales demonstrate scalable operations and consistent delivery across communities. Higher volumes support fixed-cost absorption, supplier leverage, and process refinement, which persistently improve unit economics and resilience across housing cycles.

Sustained profitability / healthy ROE

A TTM ROE near 15% and positive reported net income (~$217M TTM) indicate the business still converts revenue into shareholder returns. This level of profitability suggests competitive margins historically and the ability to generate equity returns as volumes normalize.

Negative Factors

Negative operating and free cash flow

Two consecutive periods of negative operating and free cash flow materially weaken financial flexibility. Persistent cash burn raises reliance on external financing or asset monetization to fund lot inventory and working capital, increasing vulnerability during prolonged housing slowdowns.

Margin compression and revenue decline

Sharp margin deterioration and a falling revenue trend reduce core earnings power and suggest sustained pricing pressure or rising build costs. If structural, compressed margins limit reinvestment capacity and amplify earnings sensitivity to any further demand softening.

Higher working-capital and reinvestment demands

Elevated working-capital and reinvestment needs tie up cash and lengthen the capital cycle for each home. This structural increase in capital intensity raises financing needs, slows cash conversion, and heightens exposure to construction delays or slower closings.

Dream Finders Homes Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Dream Finders Homes, Inc. operates as a holding company for Dream Finders Holdings LLC that engages in homebuilding business in the United States. It designs, constructs, and sells single-family entry-level, and first-time and second time move-up homes in Charlotte, Raleigh, Jacksonville, Orlando, Denver, the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, Austin, Dallas, and Houston. The company also operates as a licensed home mortgage broker that underwrites, originates, and sells mortgages to Prime Lending; and provides insurance agency services, including closing, escrow, and title insurance, as well as mortgage banking solutions. It sells its homes through its sales representatives and independent real estate brokers. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Dream Finders Homes generates revenue primarily through the sale of newly constructed homes. The company builds and sells homes directly to consumers, typically targeting first-time homebuyers and move-up buyers in suburban and urban markets. Key revenue streams include the sale of homes, which may involve land acquisition, construction costs, and various upgrades and options chosen by buyers. Additionally, DFH may earn revenue from ancillary services such as financing and mortgage options, offering customers a one-stop solution for home purchasing. Partnerships with local real estate agents, mortgage lenders, and suppliers also play a significant role in driving sales and enhancing profitability. By leveraging economies of scale in home construction and effective marketing strategies, DFH continues to expand its market presence and increase revenue.

Dream Finders Homes Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: balance sheet strength improved (lower leverage; debt-to-equity ~0.41), but operating trends weakened with TTM revenue down 7.5% and sharp margin compression (EBIT margin ~4.9% vs ~9.7% in 2024). The largest negative is cash flow: TTM operating cash flow (~-$101M) and free cash flow (~-$126M) are both negative for a second consecutive period, reducing flexibility despite reported profitability.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue declined 7.5% versus the prior year, and profitability compressed sharply: net margin fell to ~5.0% from ~7.5% in 2024 and EBIT margin dropped to ~4.9% from ~9.7%. The positive is that the company remains solidly profitable (TTM net income of ~$217M) and has demonstrated strong multi-year growth heading into the recent slowdown, but the latest period shows meaningful margin pressure and a weaker revenue trajectory.

Balance Sheet

Leverage has improved materially: debt-to-equity is ~0.41 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus ~0.94 in 2024 and higher levels in earlier years, indicating a stronger capital structure. Equity has grown to ~$1.57B on ~$3.73B of assets, and returns on equity remain healthy (~14.8% TTM), though down from the very strong 2022–2024 levels—suggesting profitability normalization even as balance-sheet risk has come down.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the key weak spot. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow was negative (~-$101M) and free cash flow was also negative (~-$126M), following another negative year in 2024—showing increased working-capital and/or reinvestment demands through the cycle. While the business produced strong positive cash flow in 2023, the last two periods reflect elevated cash burn and higher volatility, which reduces financial flexibility despite reported profitability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.32B	4.45B	3.75B	3.34B	1.92B
Gross Profit	754.77M	828.58M	736.77M	620.20M	313.58M
EBITDA	313.26M	450.05M	422.32M	373.28M	172.57M
Net Income	217.20M	335.34M	295.90M	262.31M	122.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.73B	3.33B	2.56B	2.37B	1.89B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	234.77M	274.38M	494.14M	364.53M	227.23M
Total Debt	591.06M	1.30B	845.42M	990.91M	786.41M
Total Liabilities	2.12B	1.91B	1.48B	1.57B	1.34B
Stockholders Equity	1.57B	1.39B	1.07B	787.72M	532.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-126.37M	-281.99M	369.45M	-33.17M	62.20M
Operating Cash Flow	-100.57M	-256.65M	374.23M	-27.62M	64.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-225.84M	-221.67M	-4.48M	-5.52M	-523.04M
Financing Cash Flow	270.98M	269.69M	-216.42M	146.96M	646.02M

Dream Finders Homes Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 19.20
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DFH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.65, above the 50-day MA of 19.02, and below the 200-day MA of 22.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DFH.

Dream Finders Homes Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GRBK	73 Outperform	$3.41B	10.29	20.37%	―	6.62%	-1.90%
TPH	73 Outperform	$3.92B	13.69	9.47%	―	-16.60%	-29.85%
MHO	71 Outperform	$3.66B	9.65	13.20%	―	4.77%	-9.30%
CCS	63 Neutral	$2.02B	14.40	8.37%	1.99%	-6.28%	-31.55%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DFH	61 Neutral	$1.78B	9.24	14.65%	―	15.95%	-6.86%
LGIH	51 Neutral	$1.21B	16.68	3.51%	―	-20.62%	-45.74%

Dream Finders Homes Corporate Events

Dream Finders Homes Releases 2024 Annual Shareholder Letter

On December 29, 2025, Dream Finders Homes released its 2024 Annual Shareholder Letter, authored by President, CEO and Chairman Patrick Zalupski, and made it available on the company’s investor relations website. The letter’s publication signals the company’s annual communication to shareholders on its performance and strategic direction, though its contents are not detailed in the announcement.

The most recent analyst rating on (DFH) stock is a Hold with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dream Finders Homes stock, see the DFH Stock Forecast page.