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Dream Finders Homes (DFH)
NYSE:DFH
US Market

Dream Finders Homes (DFH) AI Stock Analysis

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Dream Finders Homes

(NYSE:DFH)

Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$23.50
▲( 12.01% Upside)
Dream Finders Homes has a strong financial base and strategic expansion through acquisition. However, current market sentiment is bearish, and cash flow concerns need addressing. The stock's undervaluation may attract investors seeking growth opportunities.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Orders increase on incentives and higher spec inventory, with net orders up 17.9% YoY to 2,032.
Financial Performance
Gross margin improved by 19.2% due to product mix and direct cost reductions.
Market Expansion
DFH expanded into the Atlanta market by acquiring Green River Builders, expecting to control over 520 additional lots.
Negative Factors
Debt Levels
DFH has the highest net debt-to-capital in the coverage group at 36% and already trades at a premium.
Operating Costs
SG&A will likely stay elevated as DFH invests in headcount to support new market expansion.
Unexpected Expenses
SG&A was above expectations due to costs of the forward mortgage commitment and higher compensation costs, including a one-time stock comp acceleration expense.

Dream Finders Homes (DFH) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Dream Finders Homes Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDream Finders Homes, Inc. operates as a holding company for Dream Finders Holdings LLC that engages in homebuilding business in the United States. It designs, constructs, and sells single-family entry-level, and first-time and second time move-up homes in Charlotte, Raleigh, Jacksonville, Orlando, Denver, the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, Austin, Dallas, and Houston. The company also operates as a licensed home mortgage broker that underwrites, originates, and sells mortgages to Prime Lending; and provides insurance agency services, including closing, escrow, and title insurance, as well as mortgage banking solutions. It sells its homes through its sales representatives and independent real estate brokers. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyDream Finders Homes generates revenue primarily through the sale of newly constructed residential properties. The company's key revenue streams include the building and selling of single-family homes, townhomes, and other residential properties. DFH benefits from economies of scale by purchasing materials in bulk and optimizing construction processes to reduce costs. Additionally, the company enhances its earnings by offering customization options and upgrades to homebuyers, which often come with additional fees. Strategic partnerships with suppliers and subcontractors, along with the company's focus on high-demand geographic markets, further contribute to its financial performance.

Dream Finders Homes Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Dream Finders Homes has achieved remarkable revenue growth and improved financial stability, with a stronger equity position and reduced leverage. However, the company faces challenges in cash flow management, as indicated by negative operating and free cash flows in 2024. While profitability metrics like EBIT margin are strong, the net profit margin has contracted slightly. The financial statements suggest a need for prudent cash management to support sustained growth.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Dream Finders Homes has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with a significant increase from $744 million in 2019 to $4.45 billion in 2024. The company's gross profit margin is exceptionally high at 100% in 2024, which is atypical and suggests potential data anomalies. Despite the impressive revenue growth, net profit margin decreased from 7.0% in 2023 to 7.5% in 2024, indicating some pressure on profitability. EBIT margin is strong at 91.1%, showcasing efficiency in operations. However, EBITDA is reported as zero in 2024, which may raise concerns about cash flow generation abilities.
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
The balance sheet shows improvement in equity, with stockholders' equity increasing from $37.7 million in 2021 to $1.24 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio has decreased significantly from 7.55 in 2019 to 0.25 in 2024, reflecting reduced leverage and enhanced financial stability. Return on Equity (ROE) is solid at 26.9% for 2024, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio stands at a moderate 37.4%, suggesting room for improvement in asset utilization.
Cash Flow
65
Positive
Operating cash flow turned negative in 2024 at -$256.6 million, down from $374.2 million in 2023, raising concerns about liquidity management. Free cash flow also declined to -$282 million in 2024, from a positive $369.5 million in 2023. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating challenges in converting profits into cash. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, further highlighting cash flow issues despite profitability.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
4.45B3.75B3.34B1.92B1.13B
Gross Profit
828.58M736.77M620.20M313.58M170.88M
EBIT
432.83M427.98M350.15M153.81M77.41M
EBITDA
450.05M445.87M367.24M163.66M98.15M
Net Income Common Stockholders
335.34M295.90M262.31M122.38M79.09M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
274.38M548.46M364.53M227.23M35.50M
Total Assets
3.33B2.56B2.37B1.89B733.68M
Total Debt
313.20M845.42M990.91M783.26M334.29M
Net Debt
38.81M351.27M626.38M556.03M298.79M
Total Liabilities
1.91B1.48B1.73B1.49B597.89M
Stockholders Equity
1.24B1.07B631.68M377.08M103.85M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-281.99M369.45M-33.17M62.33M92.42M
Operating Cash Flow
-256.65M374.23M-27.62M65.11M95.34M
Investing Cash Flow
-221.67M-4.48M-5.52M-523.04M-13.03M
Financing Cash Flow
269.69M-216.42M146.96M645.88M-65.83M

Dream Finders Homes Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price20.98
Price Trends
50DMA
22.65
Negative
100DMA
22.95
Negative
200DMA
27.13
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.24
Positive
RSI
39.24
Neutral
STOCH
8.94
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DFH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.61, below the 50-day MA of 22.65, and below the 200-day MA of 27.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for DFH.

Dream Finders Homes Risk Analysis

Dream Finders Homes disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Dream Finders Homes reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Investors in mortgages could require that we repurchase loans or compensate them for losses stemming from mortgages we have sold. Q4, 2024

Dream Finders Homes Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$2.60B7.1324.29%21.22%24.90%
TPTPH
77
Outperform
$2.71B6.6513.28%10.82%19.34%
MHMHO
77
Outperform
$2.85B5.6219.02%8.68%8.39%
DFDFH
70
Outperform
$1.96B6.5526.25%21.18%11.40%
CCCCS
65
Neutral
$1.62B5.4812.36%2.02%10.75%8.31%
62
Neutral
$6.84B11.222.83%3.95%2.65%-21.93%
58
Neutral
$1.21B6.649.36%-4.37%-3.17%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
DFH
Dream Finders Homes
20.98
-7.67
-26.77%
MHO
M/I Homes
106.35
-18.14
-14.57%
TPH
Tri Pointe
29.85
-8.03
-21.20%
LGIH
LGI Homes
51.50
-43.50
-45.79%
CCS
Century Communities
53.02
-29.01
-35.37%
GRBK
Green Brick Partners
59.09
4.34
7.93%

Dream Finders Homes Corporate Events

Executive/Board Changes
Dream Finders Homes Announces Board Member Retirement
Neutral
May 12, 2025

On May 8, 2025, Dream Finders Homes, Inc. announced that W. Radford Lovett II, a long-serving director, investor, and advisor, will retire from the Board of Directors effective June 9, 2025, due to personal and business commitments. Mr. Lovett has been instrumental in the company’s governance and has a notable background in founding and leading successful companies in the communications and venture capital sectors, which has significantly contributed to the company’s strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (DFH) stock is a Hold with a $38.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dream Finders Homes stock, see the DFH Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Dream Finders Homes Completes Acquisition of Alliant National
Positive
Apr 21, 2025

On April 21, 2025, Dream Finders Homes announced the completion of its acquisition of Alliant National Title Insurance Company, expanding its financial services capabilities. This acquisition, initially announced on October 23, 2024, enhances Dream Finders’ vertical integration and service offerings, potentially increasing value for stakeholders and strengthening its industry presence.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.